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Czer posted:You describe it as left and right, the country is far more nuanced and complicated than that. We don't live in just one cultural spectrum, it's wildly different. We are going to keep getting rolled in the region if we keep placing western society colored glasses on when dealing with this. Sorry if I oversimplified, I absolutely do not have a proper understanding of Iranian politics and most of what I know is from a random smattering of articles and a Turkish diplomat nerdfriend.  I appreciate your posting.
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Sep 28, 2016 22:22
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Tacky-rear end Rococco posted:If this is true, then the framers of their constitution were geniuses. Creating a political system nearly impervious to change to change is a spectacular achievement. So many anciens régimes, now fallen, could have learned so much from the Iranian theocrats. See, what happened chronologically is that the Iranian theocrats learned from the anciens régimes. The Iranian revolution was in 1979, not in 1789.
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Sep 28, 2016 22:36
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Cat Mattress posted:See, what happened chronologically is that the Iranian theocrats learned from the anciens régimes. The Iranian revolution was in 1979, not in 1789. You're still claiming that they've accomplished something that, say, no socialist regime has been able to pull off. They've been at it for all of 37 years. I expect to live another fifty or so. Sorry if I'm skeptical about your claim that reformists coming to power in Iran "isn't something any of us will see in our lifetime[s]."
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Sep 28, 2016 22:40
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icantfindaname posted:Iran is actually a fairly wealthy, developed country, at least compared to places like Iraq, prewar Syria or Egypt. They're about as wealthy as Turkey or Russia, or would be if not for the sanctions. They can probably afford to shovel money into Syria (which is not a big country) quite easily Especially considering Iranian government revenue is increasing quite substantially at the moment from the increases in their oil exports in the last year or so. Even if Syria became a real money sink for them it would probably at worst just cancel out the increased oil revenue.
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Sep 28, 2016 22:43
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Tacky-rear end Rococco posted:You're still claiming that they've accomplished something that, say, no socialist regime has been able to pull off. None of that matters because you're not Iranian, my family escaped the revolution and I agree with them that I won't see it either.
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Sep 28, 2016 22:48
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Nitrousoxide posted:Isn't it just dialect differences rather than full blown language differences? There are different words used in different part of the ME, like iowa and nahaam for ok, depending on geography. One dialect can sound hella strange, and it depends on what era a person grew up with as well. For example my Mom knows a lot of Egyptian arabic because of how omnipresent egyptian comedies were when she was learning the language. EDIT: my own arabic is way, way worse than it should be.
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Sep 28, 2016 23:03
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I'm reading that two of Aleppo's still running hospitals were destroyed by Russian air strikes last night. EDIT: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-hospital-idUSKCN11Y0QG "knocked out of service" That's one way to describe it. EDIT 2: That's two out of the last five remaining.
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Sep 28, 2016 23:14
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Shageletic posted:EDIT 2: That's two out of the last five remaining. I'm surprised there were still so many left. I suppose the last three are all firmly in regime-controlled areas?
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Sep 28, 2016 23:19
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Czer posted:That was a complete thought as you can see I finished the statement. Hezbollah: designated as a terrorist organization by the US, France, the Gulf Cooperation Council, Australia, Canada, the Netherlands, and Israel, among others. FSA: do I really have to explain that Assad and company consider them terrorists? Ahrar al Sham: designated a terrorist organization by the United Arab Emirates, Russia, Iran and Egypt. YPG: considered by Turkey to be the same group as the PKK, which is designated as a terrorist organization by NATO, the US, the UK, and the EU. The US has gone to absurd lengths to avoid the thorny politics of YPG-PKK connections. Supporting any side in Syria qualifies you as being a "terrorist supporter". You can be neutral, I guess, but that's a bit of a cop-out.
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Sep 28, 2016 23:21
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Which groups compromise the FSA if you would please. I'll go ahead and do it, Al Nusra is the largest fighting force in the FSA. Syrian Al Qaeda. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_Syrian_Army#2013_.E2.80.93_Outstripped_by_al-Nusra This page says Marines are working with the FSA and it is causing severe tensions between the groups that compromise the Turkish militia. http://mepanorama.net/684715 Czer fucked around with this message at 23:29 on Sep 28, 2016 |
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Sep 28, 2016 23:24
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GreyjoyBastard posted:Sorry if I oversimplified, I absolutely do not have a proper understanding of Iranian politics and most of what I know is from a random smattering of articles and a Turkish diplomat nerdfriend. You shouldn't. He's a poo poo posting troll armed only one liners and a nationalistic fervor that justifies genocide. While the perspective of an Iranian would be a valuable addition to this thread he has no sincerity to his positions and offers nothing but condescension to the debate. It's best just to ignore him. It's not like the situation with Mightypeon where he will actually push and fight to present his opinion, even if his bias is completely foreign to us.
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Sep 28, 2016 23:38
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I'm weirded out by an Iranian guy who simulataneously mourns the effects of the post revolution diaspora while unrealistically fetishizing the Islamic Republic's strength Are there a lot of those guys? I thought usually they gravitate more towards unhealthily fetishizing pre-Arab invasion Persia or just the Pahlavis This thread attracts some interesting people
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Sep 28, 2016 23:45
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His dad must really dislike current Iranian regime.
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Sep 28, 2016 23:51
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this_thread.jpg https://twitter.com/thelateempire/status/780955131311513600
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Sep 28, 2016 23:54
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A map for a bit of perspective on the Northern Hama offensive. https://twitter.com/FSAPlatform/status/781196688362991616
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Sep 28, 2016 23:56
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Ikasuhito posted:A map for a bit of perspective on the Northern Hama offensive. And to go with it: Regime armour losses during the offensive so far
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Sep 29, 2016 00:01
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Donald Glover very accurate and succinct. "I wanted to show White people, you don't know everything about Black culture," he said. To that end, Glover employed an entirely-Black writing staff, featuring primarily Atlanta natives like Glover and his brother Stephen. I'm sure you guys have the entire Islamic world and the surrounding ethnic cultures down pat. Go get em.
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Sep 29, 2016 00:02
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Donglover sucks
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Sep 29, 2016 00:02
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Tehrani huh
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Sep 29, 2016 00:06
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I am your greatest nemesis, a non white guy Donald Glover really does blow chunks though
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Sep 29, 2016 00:07
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Punkin Spunkin posted:I'm weirded out by an Iranian guy who simulataneously mourns the effects of the post revolution diaspora while unrealistically fetishizing the Islamic Republic's strength I read it more as someone who is laughing at clueless westerners who think they know what the gently caress they are talking about because they read a wiki page and watched some youtubes.
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Sep 29, 2016 00:09
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Sep 29, 2016 00:10
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Punkin Spunkin posted:I am your greatest nemesis, a non white guy You're Iranian, Tajik or Afghan.You live in the west like me.
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Sep 29, 2016 00:10
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Now guess my bra size
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Sep 29, 2016 00:11
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We should meet I live by you, we can talk about Iran.
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Sep 29, 2016 00:11
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Only if you bring some dank das pokht I don't talk to Persians who can't cook
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Sep 29, 2016 00:13
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That's fair, if you say you support MEK i'll beat you to death though.
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Sep 29, 2016 00:16
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Count Roland posted:OPEC has agreed that cutting production is needed to raise prices. Actually doing anything won't happen until November (if ever). It seems like the oil markets have taken it as an actual deal (at least prices spiked 6-7%). There are still a lot of clarification needed but the Saudis may accept at freeze and an more active effort to support prices if there isn't a meltdown. It isn't going to return prices to anywhere near where they were but if it works, it would buoy prices a fair amount in the long term. One thing is that the Iranians have been doing quite a bit better recently, especially since an end to EU sanctions opened up the European oil market. While global oil prices have dropped, at the same time the Iranians have been able to increase production and get relatively stable prices for their oil in Europe (they previously had to sell their oil at a discount to China). Overall, the Iranian economy and the Rial is in much better shape than it just a few years ago. It almost means they can afford their operations in Syria without too much complication. Obviously a deal also helps the Russians who are slowly climbing back into positive growth territory while the Ruble has shown signs of stability.
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Sep 29, 2016 00:51
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tsa posted:I read it more as someone who is laughing at clueless westerners who think they know what the gently caress they are talking about because they read a wiki page and watched some youtubes. Well that's because you're an idiot, tsa.
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Sep 29, 2016 04:04
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Ardennes posted:Overall, the Iranian economy and the Rial is in much better shape than it just a few years ago. It almost means they can afford their operations in Syria without too much complication. Is this helping Rouhani and the moderates any? As from what I understand they were the main push factor behind the Nuclear deal, and had an improved economy as one of there main election promises It seems they should be quite happy at the moment then.
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Sep 29, 2016 05:05
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dr_rat posted:Is this helping Rouhani and the moderates any? As from what I understand they were the main push factor behind the Nuclear deal, and had an improved economy as one of there main election promises It seems they should be quite happy at the moment then. I think the results for Rouhani have been mixed, while the Iranian economy has stabilized and growth is sustainable, I think a good section of the population has still been underwhelmed by the amount of progress that has been made since the election. http://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2016/mar/31/poll-iranian-opinions-rouhani-elections (from a DC source no less...) These results seem to indicate that he still has support (at least as of March), but the honeymoon has dissipated to some extent. That said, I don't think, like some posters in this threat, that Iran is "on the edge of revolution. ------------------------------- The topic of "economically bleeding them dry" comes up quite a bit, but if anything I think compared to Iran/Russia, the Saudis are in a more unsustainable position. Iran and Russia are facing 2-3% budget deficits, while the Saudis are facing a 15% deficit. This may seem like a rather dry statistics, but that means from a fiscal perspective the Saudis have to find an extra 100b a year. (The amount of causalities comes up as well but it doesn't seem causalities have been high enough (especially for the Russians) to be a motivator.) We will have to see about the oil deal, but it is might be quite possible the Saudis simply can't afford their strategy.
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Sep 29, 2016 06:11
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I do think it's interesting to discuss how theoretically the Syrian government could win the Civil War. Czer has posited that the government and allied militias will be able kill the rebels, or "hunt them down" as he put it. I think this is an optimistic assessment for several reasons, and not because the Iranian forces are not formidible. First just killing lots of insurgents is not enough to end an insurgency. A purely military solution is likely trying to remove a blackberry patch by cutting the canes, you can cut back 90% of the plant every spring for years, but without pulling the root the entire bramble could replace itself if neglected for but a single year. And these groups have extensive roots, reaching across borders into the vast refugee camps sitting on the Turkish, Jordanian, and Lebanese borders. Even if the regime, somehow, can occupy all of rebel and ISIS held territory history suggests these camps could act as refuge for insurgents. As long as many Sunnis remain alienated from Assad regime, remenant rebels will have fertile ground to grow fresh insurgencies. And so long as they have foreign backers, (and now large expat communities to send remitances to the camps too) they will have the resources to continue their campaign. If this war seems liked its dragged on a lifetime already this is nothing. The Rhodesian Bush War last 15 years before the ANU finally won. However I think just about everyone here already knows you don't win an insurgency by killing every last insurgent, Iraq for example has recently demonstrated just how quickly an insurgency can roar back from the brink of defeat. And I don't think Assad can just kill literally every Sunni either, given his government still includes millions of Sunnis who obviously would have trouble following such a policy. In order to win the government needs to somehow convince people who currently support the rebels and ISIS to buy-back into the state. This doesn't necessarily mean making real concessions however. For example during the Shining Path insurgency in Peru the rural peasants largely turned against the Maoists after several brutal atrocities perpetrated by the rebels convinced them they'd be best off joining government self-defence militias. If the population in rebel areas can't turned against the rebels the option is perpetual occupation, as in Kashmir today. Not something the Syrian government is likely to be able to manage by itself, so how likely is a permanent Iranian or Iraqi occupation? Difficult to answer. The biggest question I have is how Sunnis currently living in government territory interact with the regime and what kind of stake they have in the status quo. This guy estimated last year that 45-60 percent of Syria's remaining population lived under regime rule, which seems at least plausible. Religous minorities like the Alawites made up 25% of the pre-war population, and assuming all of them live within government territory that puts Sunnis at roughly half the population under government rule or maybe more. Can their circumstance and relationships with the government be extended to those now living under rebel rule? I don't know. If anyone is actually interested in reading about actual insurgencies that have been defeated or won I recommend this Rand monograph on the subject, which is interesting to read through or to just interesting quotes. Lots of insurgencies fail, even in the 20th century. http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2010/RAND_MG965.pdf
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Sep 29, 2016 06:49
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Granted, it seems that areas currently under government control are relatively stable and will remain so. That said, I think the plan for Assad and his allies is to make sure there isn't a population in opposition areas there to support any sort of insurgency and it has been on going for a while. Bombing hospitals isn't an accident but rather a planned stratagem to deny not only rebels access to facilities but to make sure the neighboring population does not have access as well. The in the long term this makes area that support the rebels more or less unlivable. That said, it very well mean Assad will smash Idlib province and East Aleppo in little bits if only deny the rebels a base of support and recruitment in order to conduct a insurgency.
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Sep 29, 2016 07:25
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Volkerball posted:Well that's because you're an idiot, tsa. He's right. Please make your posts on the larger forums where the middle easterners post so you can receive more feedback, or I can do it for you and relay their responses to you. I'm talking about the ones that live there. All this insurgency talk, remember the insurgency in Iraq. I wonder how the PMU's dealt with that. Czer fucked around with this message at 08:43 on Sep 29, 2016 |
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Sep 29, 2016 07:42
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Czer posted:He's right. How do I know you're referring to the Syrian civil war reddit.  Given that you've not argued with me on any subject that benefits from having a middle eastern background, it's extra funny that you seem to think you're the sole representative of the middle east on the internet, and that it's very important to bring this up every other post so we all know that we're supposed to take everything you say for granted on every subject. There's thousands of articles out there written by middle easterners, and thousands of people on twitter and elsewhere who's voices are easily accessible to the most sheltered of white Americans. You're not some exotic commodity blessing the detached westerners with your presence. You're just another voice in a crowd of them. And given what little of substance you've had to say so far, not a particularly valuable one. But I'll be happy to be proven wrong if you can actually provide some insight. So tell us what Real Middle Easterners™ think of why the war in Syria started, who's at fault for it, and what needs to happen moving forward.
Volkerball fucked around with this message at 09:08 on Sep 29, 2016 |
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Sep 29, 2016 08:43
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Volkerball posted:How do I know you're referring to the Syrian civil war reddit. You know I dislike your viewpoint on some subjects but drat. 
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Sep 29, 2016 14:42
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Volkerball posted:How do I know you're referring to the Syrian civil war reddit.
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Sep 29, 2016 14:57
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I am a middle eastern guy on an Internet comedy forum, where's my prize bouquet and sash that says "always right" and diamond tiara? <  >
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Sep 29, 2016 15:07
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Rust Martialis posted:You know I dislike your viewpoint on some subjects but drat. The Syrian civil war reddit is generally better than this forum in most ways like diversity of views, quality of analysis and up-to-date news. Oh, and people are nicer to each other.
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Sep 29, 2016 15:12
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Al-Saqr posted:I am a middle eastern guy on an Internet comedy forum, where's my prize bouquet and sash that says "always right" and diamond tiara? Peres built some houses on top of it. 
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Sep 29, 2016 15:16
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