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Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

The ICC lawyer who was detained has now been released.

# ? Jul 2, 2012 14:19

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# ? May 23, 2013 09:50

Chortles: Dec 29, 2008

suboptimal posted:

And is it just me, or is Fisk's work really slipping these days? I remember he wrote a piece last year about the Syrian revolution- shortly after armed insurgents emerged- and basically said the entire thing was motivated by Salafi extremism. The entire tone was akin to "Oh, well, I don't know, I'm just ASKING QUESTIONS HERE" and was really off-putting.

That was pretty much the tone I got from the Fisk quote about Shafiq and Morsi, relatively bog-standard Internet conspiracy theorist complete with "I can't prove poo poo," except instead of blaming it on the conspiracy he cites someone whose very description has nothing to do with credibility except "he claims to hear everything", complete with not even anonymously quoting this "source" (50.7 to 49.3 is oddly specific).

I understand that the 'usual' practice (i.e. what you'll see in the New York Times) is to specify how the source is positioned to be privy to the relevant knowledge, i.e. "anonymous defense official" as opposed to "some random gently caress in Tahrir Square who heard something".

# ? Jul 2, 2012 19:30

McDowell: Aug 1, 2008; Surely, Caligula was my greatest role

The X-man cometh posted:

Salafis have a ton of money, since Wahabbism is the official state religion of Saudi Arabia. That helps them spread their message easily.

That's what I thought. This definitely helps arm radical chucklefucks who want to DESTROY THE SACRILEGE

# ? Jul 2, 2012 19:34

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005; TEAM LIBERAL
Defending and rationalizing Democratic policy since 2008
Please note: I represent the farthest left of allowed D&D discussion. Going beyond this point may result in probation

BBC News just reported another 85 Syrian soldiers + some commanders have defected. No online reports that I can find about it yet.

Edit: Here's one: http://abcnews.go.com/International...turkey-16698682

Deteriorata fucked around with this message at Jul 2, 2012 around 20:36

# ? Jul 2, 2012 20:12

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

The X-man cometh posted:

Salafis have a ton of money, since Wahabbism is the official state religion of Saudi Arabia. That helps them spread their message easily.

There are Different types of Salafis. I doubt KSA has any interest in supporting these guys.

One could make a comparison to what the Saudis have done to Mecca though.

# ? Jul 2, 2012 21:34

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Here's a video of a group near Izaz, Aleppo, who I believe are claiming to have shot down a helicopter using their DShK
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3w-SZ2BxyFY
Any translation would be appreciated, as it would confirm the 3rd downed helicopter in a week, all of which were done by DShKs, as far as I know, which are increasingly common. I think helicopter loses may start to be a major issue for the air force, and we might see jets come into play.

# ? Jul 2, 2012 21:54

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

I'm pretty sure they're calling it a plane, though they more likely mean helicopter, but nothing else notable in the video, just location, date, name of brigade, and a lot of takbirs.

# ? Jul 2, 2012 22:06

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Another good one from today is this
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7pxrAQ8AtI
Shows what appears to be a weapons workshop manufacturing rockets for use in a homemade launcher system.

# ? Jul 2, 2012 22:19

Pedrophile: Feb 25, 2011; by angerbot

Brown Moses posted:

Here's a video of a group near Izaz, Aleppo, who I believe are claiming to have shot down a helicopter using their DShK
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3w-SZ2BxyFY
Any translation would be appreciated, as it would confirm the 3rd downed helicopter in a week, all of which were done by DShKs, as far as I know, which are increasingly common. I think helicopter loses may start to be a major issue for the air force, and we might see jets come into play.

I doubt we'll see jets come into much play right now, Assad is more concerned about losing the things after one of his air force generals left with the plane.

# ? Jul 2, 2012 22:20

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

The Aviationist has a new post about the Turkey plane, examining the theory it was in fact a drone.

# ? Jul 2, 2012 22:22

The X-man cometh: Nov 1, 2009

Xandu posted:

There are Different types of Salafis. I doubt KSA has any interest in supporting these guys.

One could make a comparison to what the Saudis have done to Mecca though.

That's very true, I don't think the Saudi government support the Salafi in Mali, but aren't the hard-core Wahabbi from Saudi Arabia more likely to support Salafis (not necessarily Wahabbi) in other countries rather than any other sect?

The X-man cometh fucked around with this message at Jul 2, 2012 around 22:48

# ? Jul 2, 2012 22:46

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

I've put together a post on those DIY rockets having spent some time analysing the video.

# ? Jul 2, 2012 23:04

Section 31: Mar 4, 2012; What was that?

Map of Syria battleground (not sure accuracy)

# ? Jul 2, 2012 23:29

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

What SAM base have they supposedly captured?

# ? Jul 3, 2012 00:04

suboptimal: Oct 27, 2008; Ba-dam ba-DUMMMMMM

Xandu posted:

What SAM base have they supposedly captured?

Probably an Air Defense base outside of Tabilseh, Homs, in mid-June. I don't think they got SAMs or MANPADS, but they did make off with a Shilka or two.

# ? Jul 3, 2012 00:28

something original: Sep 9, 2011

The AP says another 85 soldiers from Syria have defected to Turkey.

Erdoğan was harsh with the WSJ (who quoted anonymous sources to claim that the Turkish plane was in Syrian airspace when it was shot), he asked them to name their anonymous sources if they are actually honest. (They published a similar report months ago and nothing came out of it, so now people accuse them of manufacturing stories. Interestingly another major Murdoch owned paper The Times has published several "shocking" stories about Turkey in the last year or so and IIRC every single time nothing substantiated and it was forgotten a week later.)

Also reportedly Turkish jets successfully blocked Syrian helicopters from getting close to the border

Hurriyet posted:

Turkish F-16s scrambled three times yesterday to counter Syrian helicopters flying close to the border, the Turkish army has announced.

The General Staff published a statement on its website, saying a "scramble" was launched from İncirlik air base in the southern province of Adana on three separate instances as Syrian helicopters approached the Turkish border.

The scramble alerts were given at 9:16 a.m., 2:52 p.m. and 5:11 p.m. A Syrian helicopter came as close as two miles from the Turkish border in the instance at 5:11 p.m.

The helicopters were identified as type MI-8 and MI-17 Russian-made assault transport helicopters. Both models could be used as transport helicopters or could be fitted with weaponry to act as a gunship.

The General Staff's statement did not mention whether the helicopters were acting as transport vehicles or gunships.

# ? Jul 3, 2012 01:39

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

something original posted:

Erdoğan was harsh with the WSJ (who quoted anonymous sources to claim that the Turkish plane was in Syrian airspace when it was shot), he asked them to name their anonymous sources if they are actually honest. (They published a similar report months ago and nothing came out of it, so now people accuse them of manufacturing stories. Interestingly another major Murdoch owned paper The Times has published several "shocking" stories about Turkey in the last year or so and IIRC every single time nothing substantiated and it was forgotten a week later.)

If the story turns out to be wrong, it's more likely because someone in the US intelligence community was leaking info on something they weren't fully briefed on.

# ? Jul 3, 2012 01:43

something original: Sep 9, 2011

Most of those stories in The Times about Turkey included phrases like "sources say" too, and those stories were making very serious claims but now I don't even remember any of them because nobody else echoed the stories and even readers who talked about them forgot them after a couple of days.

I guess I have such a bias against any Murdoch owned media that I actually refuse to see them as a legitimate news source. Also after the hacking scandal, bribing of officers and defaming opponents and of course seeing what Fox News broadcasts I expect all kinds of fraudulent behavior from them.

By the way NATO Chief Rasmussen said "We shouldn't trust reports by anonymous sources, the radar data Turkey gave us in the briefing was sufficient" when reporters asked him about it, according to the Turkish media.

# ? Jul 3, 2012 02:38

not now: Aug 23, 2008

So Human Rights Watch has an article and map up detailing the different detention/torture sites throughout Syria (in some cases even giving the name of the site's commander):

http://www.hrw.org/news/2012/07/03/...enters-revealed

# ? Jul 3, 2012 06:12

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

The Libya Herald has a good piece on the elections, and the different groups taking place. There's also this piece.

# ? Jul 3, 2012 09:24

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

This is worth a watch, a high quality short film about the children in Homs with English subtitles
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXuzJgAi4EY

# ? Jul 3, 2012 13:23

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

That's definitely worth watching.

AFP posted:

Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah and Iran will fight alongside the Syrian regime if it is attacked by foreign forces, a pro-Damascus Palestinian militant leader said on Tuesday.

In the event of "a foreign attack, we discussed with our brothers (in the Syrian regime), with (Hezbollah chief) Hassan Nasrallah and our brothers in Iran, we will be part of this battle," said Ahmed Jibril of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command.

In an interview with Beirut-based Mayadeen television, Jibril said that if a "Turkish-European alliance or NATO escalate... we will take to the streets and fight on behalf of all those with honour and our Syrian brothers."
Jibril also cited Nasrallah as saying Hezbollah would fight on behalf of the Syrian regime, and described the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah alliance as "one axis" that the PFLP-GC is part of.

He added that he met recently with Nasrallah, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, without specifying when.

He also noted that the Hezbollah chief "said he would join this battle, in the event of a foreign attack" on Syria.

The Iranian regime, he said, told him it would not allow a strike on Syria. "We have warned the Turks several times not to play with fire," Jibril said.

Echoing the Syrian regime's discourse, the PFLP-GC chief said the 16-month uprising against Assad was not a genuine local movement, but rather "a change in the foundations of this region in order to create a new Middle East," referring to a term coined in 2006 by former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
Jibril described the defence of the Syrian regime as "a decisive battle." Victory would be necessary, he said, in order to "defeat the American and Zionist projects."

The PFLP-GC is a radical Palestinian faction that is based in Damascus.

I think the most surprising thing about this article is that the PFLP-GC is still around and it has the same leader as it did in 1968.

# ? Jul 3, 2012 14:10

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

The Washington Post has a good piece on Saadi Gaddafi living the high life in Niger while the government figures out what to do with him. He'll probably end up moving from country to country living in style until his money runs out or the Libyans can get a ICC arrest warrent for him.

# ? Jul 3, 2012 14:56

MothraAttack: Apr 28, 2008

A separate Islamist group, Mujao (The Unity Movement for Jihad in West Africa) is evidently occupying the city of Gao in Mali and has mined the area to prevent MNLA incursion.

# ? Jul 3, 2012 20:02

Rent-A-Cop: Oct 15, 2004; I hate tarsiformes

MothraAttack posted:

A separate Islamist group, Mujao (The Unity Movement for Jihad in West Africa) is evidently occupying the city of Gao in Mali and has mined the area to prevent MNLA incursion.

Oh good, because Africa didn't have enough landmines already.

# ? Jul 3, 2012 20:08

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Turkey has estimated a huge number of defections from the Syrian army

quote:

About 85 Syrian soldiers, including a general, had sought refuge in Turkey on Monday with a total of 208 family members, said the official, making it the biggest group of soldiers to defect to Turkey since the uprising against the Syrian regime began in March 2011.

According to an estimate by Turkish government officials, about 60,000 members of the Syrian security forces have defected so far, and several hundred have come to Turkey.

And with defections comes new weapons and ammo for the FSA, and chaos in the ranks of the Syrian army.

# ? Jul 3, 2012 20:36

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

Brown Moses posted:

Turkey has estimated a huge number of defections from the Syrian army

And with defections comes new weapons and ammo for the FSA, and chaos in the ranks of the Syrian army.

As the example of Libya demonstrates, Assad living or dying depends on preventing a snowball effect on the opposition side.

Once the opposition is seen as the winning horse and they start snowballing in strength from getting more defections/equipment upgrades then it's only a matter of time before he's finished.

# ? Jul 3, 2012 20:55

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; Who the hell is that right there? 85. Heyward-Bey? See, that's the shit I'm talking about. Cut that dumbass. 24 is Huff right? Cut his ass too. You know what, just cut every last one of these assholes. Fuck it all. Fuck.

etalian posted:

As the example of Libya demonstrates, Assad living or dying depends on preventing a snowball effect on the opposition side.

Once the opposition is seen as the winning horse and they start snowballing in strength from getting more defections/equipment upgrades then it's only a matter of time before he's finished.

That would be devastating for Putin who is really playing the "tough on America" card, and Russia is prepared to dump a lot of assets into Syria to prevent Assad's regime from falling behind. Hence, Syria is hosed.

# ? Jul 3, 2012 22:53

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

The FSA are now hanging out in castles.

# ? Jul 3, 2012 23:05

J33uk: Oct 23, 2005

Xandu posted:

The FSA are now hanging out in castles.

Is that the Krak? Hearing about it getting looted and shot up was pretty depressing (not that the rest of the situation doesn't suck hard or anything), it was one of my favorite places I visited in Syria.

# ? Jul 3, 2012 23:08

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Maybe. They're calling it al-hosn crusader's citadel in the caption, but I think it's the same thing.

# ? Jul 3, 2012 23:20

mitztronic: Jun 17, 2005; i can taste myself moving...

Laminar Flow

Xandu posted:

Wow

Car bomb explodes at Syrian funeral in Zamalka.

obviously
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyD0hBR83v8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RlBM2wj-44M

this is so like...

I don't even know how to respond to this. I feel sick. Those poor people, this is so disgusting

# ? Jul 3, 2012 23:21

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Some Egyptians made a group modeled after the Saudi CPVPV and they may have been responsible for stabbing a 20 year old student to death in Suez.

http://egyptianchronicles.blogspot....ty-of.html#more
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsCon...ng-in-Egyp.aspx

Xandu fucked around with this message at Jul 4, 2012 around 03:56

# ? Jul 4, 2012 03:54

suboptimal: Oct 27, 2008; Ba-dam ba-DUMMMMMM

Xandu posted:

Some Egyptians made a group modeled after the Saudi CPVPV and they may have been responsible for stabbing a 20 year old student to death in Suez.

http://egyptianchronicles.blogspot....ty-of.html#more
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsCon...ng-in-Egyp.aspx

Didn't these guys first pop up after the parliamentary elections, claim they had several thousand members armed with stun guns, and then disappeared when the Egyptian public ridiculed them?

# ? Jul 4, 2012 04:54

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Yeah it seemed like they were just a facebook group but that claim of responsibility raises some questions.

One of Egypt's supreme court judges is coming forward for some reason claiming collusion with SCAF.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/04/w...&pagewanted=all

# ? Jul 4, 2012 07:55

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009

Russian newspaper Kommersant says that western powers have tried to persuade Russia to offer asylum to Bashar al-Assad but that the Russian government is not interested in doing so.

The unnamed government source told that "the Syrian president has lost time. His chances of survival are not great - about 10 percent. We are not against the Syrian opposition but military intervention."

Take it with a grain of salt, but it would confirm that even Russians don't expect Assad regime to waltz through this.

# ? Jul 4, 2012 09:44

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

I seriously wonder how well equipped Jordan is to deal with this.

http://blogs.aljazeera.com/topic/syria/2300-syrian-refugees-have-crossed-jordan-last-24-hours-0 posted:

Our correspondent Nisreen el-Shamayleh has reported that 2,300 Syrian refugees have crossed into Jordan In the last 24 hours alone.

Reporting from Jordan, she said:

This is a very sharp increase from the average of 200-400 who arrive every night and the highest in over a year.

Sources in the Jordanian city of Ramtha expect another 2,000 people to arrive tonight. These are taken to the transit facility of Al Bashabsheh.

The UN refugee agency, UNHCR, expects a response from the authorities regarding opening another holding facility for Syrian refugees because there it is impossible for Al Bashabsheh to accommodate these numbers.

# ? Jul 4, 2012 10:06

Section 31: Mar 4, 2012; What was that?

Libyan medical team enters Syria through the Turkish border

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhbgqIM_W5M

Xandu posted:

The FSA are now hanging out in castles.

Here's the video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6T_u35ZPAy8

# ? Jul 4, 2012 11:45

Ham: Apr 30, 2009; You're BALD!

Section 31 posted:

Libyan medical team enters Syria through the Turkish border

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhbgqIM_W5M

Here's the video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6T_u35ZPAy8

Child soldier is a lot more distressing than the castle being shelled.

# ? Jul 4, 2012 12:36

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# ? May 23, 2013 09:50

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

What do you think of this "Third Current" movement in Egypt, Ham?

# ? Jul 4, 2012 12:52

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