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Xandu posted:I can't stand Joshua Landis, but there's a good guest post by an American in Damascus on his website. I was going to post this in the D&D thread. Out of curiosity, what don't you like about Landis? I've really enjoyed his blog lately, and he's had some great appearances on NPR/PRI.
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May 31, 2011 00:38
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Xandu posted:Hmm, not sure how to put this. Interesting. I had no idea about any of that stuff, I've only been following Landis since late March. That's pretty disgusting that he's advising Syria about CT stuff, especially when they're claiming to be waging a CT campaign in their own country. Ye gods.
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May 31, 2011 03:24
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Rent-A-Cop posted:Never. It's an underdeveloped country with no significant resources full of heavily armed crazy people. The West learned that lesson in Somalia. Given how heavily armed the Yemeni populace is, I'm amazed the street protests didn't turn into urban conflict sooner. Tribal violence notwithstanding, the people who have held the sit-in at Sana'a University deserve some sort of medal for restraint even after all those sniper attacks.
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May 31, 2011 06:11
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Cable Guy posted:Not a snowflake's in hell. We saw yesterday the "quality" of his posts... why is he still around? Brown Moses, you shouldn't need to bother chasing HIS sources, and you certainly shouldn't need to ask him to consider what he's said AFTER he's opened his mouth.  [/quote] Well, bear in mind that SA's resident schizophrenic Caro Ascendant (nee Caro) is currently in Libya, masquerading as some sort of hybrid war tourist and pseudo-combat medic. Reporting that troops are killing Libyan babies with flamethrowers certainly wouldn't be his most outlandish claim.
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Jun 1, 2011 16:46
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Al-Jazeera English is reporting that Saleh has left Yemen for medical attention in Saudi Arabia, and the Saudi government has negotiated a one-week ceasefire between tribal forces and Saleh's loyalists. Let's see how long this lasts.
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Jun 4, 2011 19:07
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A lot of people on Twitter are breathless over Saleh's move to Saudi Arabia and his transfer of power to his VP, but at the same time, what exactly has changed? If his family is still there, and in control of the security forces, it doesn't seem like everyone's just going to pack it up and go home...
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Jun 5, 2011 01:04
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Chortles posted:
Kohl is the dark eyeliner stuff that some Afghan men wear, I've never seen anyone wearing it in the parts of the ME I've been to (Egypt, Lebanon.) It's probably meant as a dig, like the dead guy was wearing makeup because he's gay or something. lovely banter by war criminals at least.
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Jun 5, 2011 05:00
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Xandu posted:The rumor is that it was actually someone in his family who planned it. Where did you see that? I'm not too terribly surprised, just wanting to know more.
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Jun 5, 2011 05:02
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Brown Moses posted:
I'd like to think that there's some smart-rear end crew chief putting ribbons ala birthday gifts on the JDAMs somewhere out there.
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Jun 7, 2011 17:41
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Scaramouche posted:I've been reading a few articles lately (mostly from news aggregators) that are calling the Yemen and Syria conflicts "tribal". As in "competing tribesmen are attacking the regime" instead of "tons of protestors are fed up with the regime". Is this just some kind of shorthand for "browns wanting freedom we don't like" or am I being paranoid? It's an over simplification for sure in Syria's case (that country's fault lines are based more on sect and religion than tribe) and it's somewhat less of an exaggeration in Yemen. I kind of take umbrage at the term tribe, if only because it sounds so savage and Orientalist. It might be better to think "political organization bound by differing degrees of blood relation and mutual self interest" when you read "tribe" but really, the distinction between the two is pretty hard to distill into a 250 word AP piece written by a stringer.
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Jun 8, 2011 06:37
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Did anyone else catch Saleh's speech? That dude was seriously messed up- bandaged hands, not moving his body while he spoke, and it looked like his skin was several shades darker than before (bad makeup job covering burns?) He also reported that he had more than eight operations in Saudi Arabia. This is why you limit your exposure to Semtex-lined tanning booths. Holy poo poo. As far as Egypt, the long and short of it is that people are pissed at SCAF for a number of things, including the slow pace of reform, kicking the can of trials for former regime figures and indicted members of the security forces down the road, and questions regarding the legitimacy of the recent constitutional amendments. Yesterday, people rioted in Suez after a bunch of cops who killed people during the uprising got bail, and last week, there were clashes after former Int. Minister Habib al-Adly's trial for killing protesters was postponed. There's going to be huge demonstrations tomorrow, and everyone- the April 6 Movement, National Association for Change (El Baredai's group), the Muslim Brotherhood, Coptic organizations, and even the Salafists (!) will demonstrate. Things could get very out of hand tomorrow- SCAF has really got to step things up on a political and judicial front if it wants to keep things quiet until elections. Steven Cook has a great post explaining all of this here, but an actual poster in Egypt like Ham will probably have their own unique insights.
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Jul 7, 2011 18:43
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AFP ran that story about Ford going to Hama with an ending sentence to the effect of "A senior US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the ambassador was there to make contact with the opposition." While I'm sure that's the case and think Ford meeting the opposition is a good thing, I'm not so sure that leaking it was smart. The Syrian state media has been running with the narrative that the protests are the work of foreign conspirators (hilariously blaming Salafists, Lebanon, Turkey and the US to some degree.) Now, it's out there that a high-level representative of the US government has met with the people the Assad regime has been calling "armed gangs." While this may not seem like much, recognize that the situation in Syria is pretty opaque, and I don't even think that most Syrians (at least not those in Damascus, Aleppo and other major cities) have a full account of the size and scope of the protest movement. It's not inconceivable that there's some segment of the Syrian population that may buy into the regime's propaganda and deny the opposition their support.
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Jul 8, 2011 03:28
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Pureauthor posted:Maybe it's just me being politically ignorant, but why would this hypothetical bunch being Colombian mercenaries be significant in any way? I think PMCs like Blackwater and Triple Canopy recruited ex-military types (ex-SOF, etc) from Colombia and El Salvador. There's probably enough unemployed soldiers who are willing to fight for the highest bidder, not to mention Xe (nee Blackwater) is also headquartered in the UAE these days.
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Jul 8, 2011 15:33
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Ham posted:Are you guys not following anything in Egypt? Massive anti-SCAF demonstrations that started as a march from Tahrir Square to SCAF headquarters at the Ministry of Defense in Cairo, and more demonstrations in Suez and Alexandria. At least 300 wounded so far, no confirmed fatalities, demonstrators were attacked by "thugs". Spent 6 hours trying to get out of that mess, army has the whole area locked down. Things are looking pretty grim. Where did the MB announce they'd be running a presidential candidate? Al Masry al Youm doesn't have anything on that, and last time I checked, Freedom & Justice wasn't running a candidate for the presidency. I wasn't surprised when they announced they'd be aligning with al-Wafad, but I didn't think they'd be running a candidate so soon. edit: did they really get over their internal rifts so quickly? I'd been reading so much about the split between the older, more cautious vanguard and the newer, more liberal members.
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Jul 24, 2011 07:49
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Algeria: Never really got off the ground after some fairly large demonstrations after Ben Ali and Mubarak fell. Now, anytime anyone goes out to protest, security forces usually beat/arrest the lot of them. Anti-government sentiment seems to be at a low boil, but not really in danger of flaring up. Bahrain: GCC and Bahraini forces pushed most of the demonstrators into Shia' villages on the outskirts of Manama. Protests have continued in those areas, especially in Sitrah and Karzakan, but the cops have used pretty brutal means to keep them there and outside of the capital. The Khalifa regime has also held this weird "national dialogue" event, which has seemingly been a lot of gloating by the government and freaked out Sunnis about how they disrupted an Iranian/American plot (yeah, seriously) to destabilize their country. Absolutely none of the grievances that started the unrest have been resolved, and I believe that when the protesters regroup (probably within a few years), any demonstrations are going to be much more forceful than they were before. Morocco: Morocco has been a weird case. The protest movement there has been mostly about reform rather than revolution, and protests have occurred on pretty much every Sunday since February. The king has tried to paint himself as a reformer by introducing a number of measures in a referendum that appeared to limit his powers, but really didn't do much. The government had this big "everyone vote yes and show your support for these unprecedented reforms!" campaign that meant to play up patriotism, but the opposition had been telling people to vote no due to the superficiality of the referendum. When the vote actually took place last month, the government claimed something like a 75% turnout with 98% voting yes. Unsurprisingly, the opposition has challenged these figures, and protests have continued.
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Jul 27, 2011 16:15
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There are some disturbing reports coming out of North Sinai right now. Repent11, a tweeter affiliated with CNN, is reporting that the Egyptian army and SOF units are engaged with Islamist militants who have reportedly seized control of the Rafah area. You'll remember Rafah as the area which borders the Gaza Strip. It's unconfirmed right now, but if true, things are about to get really, really ugly in the Sinai.
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Jul 29, 2011 16:55
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Ham posted:Situation in Arish is escalating, a captain in the Egyptian Army was killed with several soldiers and another officer severely wounded. Several civilians dead (rumored to be around 8 killed right now) with tens more injured, army engaged in battle with militants. Where are you getting this from? I've been monitoring Twitter and there's only been one guy (repent11) who's been reporting on the attacks. Conflicting reports abound- I've been hearing there's another attack going on, and I also heard that Egyptian SOF (Unit 777) had repulsed the attack. Anything credible you can confirm would be good...
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Jul 29, 2011 20:21
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Jut posted:I don't buy this excuse that keeps coming up as an excuse for inaction. Resolutions are submitted on Israel/Palestine even though it's clear the US will veto them, but it doesn't stop them being submitted. Your hyperbolic casual racism aside, perhaps you'll notice that this here Guardian article on the matter says: Russia's foreign ministry said today that it would not oppose a United Nations resolution to condemn violence in Syria as long as it did not include sanctions and other such "pressures". This means that any UNSC vote that doesn't get vetoed by the Russians will most likely be a sternly worded "hey guys, stop killing your own citizens or else we'll say other mean things to you" message. The only real international intervention in Syria will most likely be new sets of sanctions unilaterally adopted by the US, UK, etc targeting specific members of the Assad family or the Ba'ath Party, rather than any kind of coordinated UN action.
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Aug 2, 2011 19:14
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Xandu posted:I wonder how that happened. Last I heard, the government completely banned al-Jazeera from observing the trial. Who can resist the winning smiles of Ayman Mohyeldin and Sherine Tadros?
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Aug 3, 2011 16:29
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Ham posted:It's the lowest scoring yes. The next one is commerce. Which is weird, because most of the Egyptian lawyers I met in Alexandria were really, really smart people.
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Aug 3, 2011 20:52
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Kane, thanks for putting yourself out there and answering questions. I'd like to know this: have the settlers joined the demonstrations in any meaningful way? I've seen a few tweets from 972 magazine writer @IbnReza about there being some minor clashes between protesters and settlers who tried to set up tents. What's your feelings on the extreme right/settlers joining the protest movement? Also, I recall reading an article saying that a whole bunch of MKs said, "Housing problems? I know a place where we can build cheaply and freely  " with regard to more West Bank settlement expansion. If the government announced building tens of thousands of new housing units in the Occupied Territories, what portion of the protesters do you think would be placated by that?
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Aug 8, 2011 15:24
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In other big news, militants attacked several targets throughout Southern Israel today, killing at least seven people and wounding 25 others. Big manhunt under way. Although the attacks allegedly originated in the Sinai (which Egypt holds), I wouldn't be surprised if Israel launches an offensive into Gaza over this.
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Aug 18, 2011 15:12
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Ham posted:Clashes at the border, pretty much. Unknown if accidental or not, but one Egyptian officer and 2 Egyptian soldiers confirmed killed by an Israeli Apache, with several more wounded. Didn't see that on Haaretz, but Ynet said an Israeli sniper was killed by militants near the Rafah border.
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Aug 19, 2011 02:08
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Darth123123 posted:Not to doubt anyone, including you and Ham, but is there verified sources of this? A crappy article from Xinhua says this: quote:http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-08/19/c_131059119.htm
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Aug 19, 2011 02:16
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Everyone needs to pay more attention to forums poster KashiMane and his extensively researched, well documented assertions that the Libyan rebels are actually an imperialist, neo-liberal force bankrolled by Halliburton.
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Aug 19, 2011 18:19
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Zorba the Greek posted:It could have, and NATO getting involved was incredibly stupid. I'm glad the revolution is happening but NATO, specificlly the UK, getting involved was just ridiculous. And yet if they hadn't, they wouldn't be in Tripoli now.
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Aug 22, 2011 00:16
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Zorba the Greek posted:They shouldn't have got involved for the one reason we all know why they did. I'd rather have the rebels get in there themselves or fail trying than have us help them out. I'm sorry that's just what I think. In 20 or so years, when Libya can't govern itself or when the rebellion collapses, or when the same thing happens again. Who are they going blame? You're still not getting it- the rebels were on the verge of total annihilation before NATO got involved. It was NATO CAS and arms that helped affect the outcome that we're seeing now. Again, for TLDR: If the rebels hadn't asked for NATO help- they would have all been killed months ago.
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Aug 22, 2011 00:24
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Sivias posted:http://yfrog.com/hsrlxlkj Underneath the photo.... Translation: Allahu Akbar (God is great)... We congratulate the LIbyan population for the fall of Muammar Gadafi and we encourage all people to go out to the streets (to celebrate) and maintain the safety and protection of all public property, Long live Free Libya... National Transitional Council... EFB.
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Aug 22, 2011 00:35
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Egypt's revolution just took a sharp turn into Whatthefuckistan, as people are now breaching the Israeli embassy and throwing out documents onto the street below. This is not going to end well.
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Sep 9, 2011 23:19
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In Egypt: officials caved on the proposed pre-arranged visa thing, so don't worry, you can still get your tourist visas at the airport before you go buy papyrus scrolls at the Pyramids. That is to say this is all contingent on whether or not you'd still like to visit Egypt in the wake of this announcement: quote:Egypt's military rulers outlined on Sunday new areas where they would use long-standing emergency laws, citing activities such as blocking roads, publishing false information and weapons possession, the state news agency said. Via the always excellent Al Masry al Youm So the Emergency Law, which SCAF had agreed to repeal when conditions allow, has now basically been expanded beyond what Mubarak had ever dreamed of. Meet the new bosses, same as the old boss.
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Sep 12, 2011 18:22
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The proposed new electoral law in Egypt also features some pretty sketchy redistricting and a confusing mixture of individual candidates vs. party lists that nearly all of the country's political parties have rejected as a way to get what remains of the now-banned NDP back into office again. This multi-day election time frame seems to fit in with these allegations.
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Sep 21, 2011 05:13
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cgeq posted:So is the military worried that if a bunch of the "wrong" kind of people get elected they'll lose their US support or just smoke and mirrors so the military can entrench and extend their rule as long as possible or is it just old guard remnants trying to regain political power or non-Muslim Brotherhood groups trying to build up their party infrastructure to the point they can get as many seats as possible or things are just seriously in shambles and this is the only way to guarantee a free and fair election? A little of all? Mostly one or the other? Something completely different? It's hard to say for sure. On one hand, the military has never been comfortable with openly governing because it's a lose-lose proposition for them: during Mubarak's reign, they were showered with all of the military goodies they wanted (M1 Abrams tanks produced under license in Egypt, F-16s, etc) and also used their considerable clout to do make a lot of money by opening hospitals, malls, farms, etc. but also because their behind-the-scenes nature allowed the army to at least portray itself as beyond politics and as the one governmental institution that was largely beyond reproach. I think that the military wants to get out of governing as soon as possible, and is doing some serious political horse trading to make sure their cozy status is protected by any civilian-led government. For a while, it seemed like the MB and the military were establishing a relationship that left a lot of secular activists pissed off, but dithering over a new constitution pissed off the Brotherhood something fierce and it seems like that relationship is gradually icing over. Bear in mind that while the National Democratic Party was dissolved back in April, the remnants are reorganizing into different parties. I think it's likely that the military would trust NDP holdouts over the leftist parties like April 6 or Islamist parties like the MB- during Mubarak's last ten years, the country's economy did do a lot better by cozying up to the WB/IMF and other international institutions, and this move was spearheaded largely by Gamal Mubarak and a new class of NDP officials with extensive ties to the country's business sector. Perhaps Ham will chime in to correct me on all of this, but it seems like Egyptian politics are a three-ringed circus without a ringmaster right now. The machinations of all the political actors- from the military to the secular parties to the Islamists- vary between shrewd political moves to outright chaos.
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Sep 21, 2011 06:35
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Yemen State TV just announced that Ali Abdullah Saleh has returned. poo poo is going to get very, very ugly if this is true.
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Sep 23, 2011 05:47
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There are unconfirmed reports that Saleh will chair a ruling party meeting in a few hours and then resign. To whom power would go to is unknown, but if he attempts to pass it off to his screwball kid it's going to get even worse.
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Sep 23, 2011 08:29
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Dunno if this has already been posted, but this is the most succinct analysis of Ali Abdullah Saleh's psyche I've seen yet.
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Sep 23, 2011 15:42
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Anwar al-Awlaki, a US citizen and propagandist for Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, has been killed in Yemen today. The US government just confirmed this, but the Yemeni Defense Ministry was the first to break the news.
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Sep 30, 2011 11:30
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Hey Brown Moses- how about Hannah for a name for your daughter?
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Oct 20, 2011 16:08
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Man, given what Misrata went through, Qadhafi couldn't have picked a worse contingent of fighters to be captured by than those who came from there. All things considered, he's probably lucky he just got off by being beaten and then executed- I would have thought the Misratans would have drawn and quartered him.
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Oct 22, 2011 19:24
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ZombieLenin posted:Sigh. Yes, yes Ghadaffi was the evil anti-American dictator who deserved to be shot in the head. Lets not talk about American backed dictators and terrorists, both past and present, who were just as hosed up and "evil." All governments have interests and conduct their foreign policy to maximize the realization of those interests. These things are not static and do not develop in a vacuum, and amazingly enough, they change over time. This leads to indescribably hosed up scenarios in which, yes, we support hosed up people and their hosed up things that they do and do hosed up things on our own- it's an unfortunate fact of history which goes further than Thucydides and the history of the Peloponnesian War. No amount of legislation, international tribunals, or other effort will ever change this fact. Has US foreign policy ever been anything but hypocritical and avaricious? No. But I challenge you to find me ANY state that would not conduct its foreign policy in a similar fashion. Before you accuse me of white-knighting the various crimes committed abroad by the American government, I should point out that I'm not defending this- I'm just pointing out the historical record here. It's also uncontroversial to say that there are the occasional instances when we actually do manage to get things right, and all things considered, the Libyan intervention has heretofore been one of those rare successes. As far as your tired assertion that this war was about oil- no. Qadhafi had been more than content to allow foreign oil companies into do business, and the international community happily obliged him. I believe that Qadhafi's execution was wrong, but when compared to what he did to that country for 42 years, and what he did to Misrata, I'm not going to shed many tears about him getting roughed up and shot. I maintain that this was probably the most merciful end he could have hoped for.
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Oct 23, 2011 22:42
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I haven't seen this linked in the thread yet, but the Institute for the Study of War has a four-part series up on the entire Libyan revolution. Link here.
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Oct 27, 2011 21:46
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