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Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

I agree; taking Sirt is probably much more valuable than besieging it. Even better would be if it had a Misrata-like uprising and it switched sides - probably in a bloody fashion - as rebel troops approached. That would be a nice kick in the sack to Gaddafi. It looked like that was going to happen during the initial surge, before the rebels were driven back to Ajdabiya.

The fundamental truth here is, with NATO involved, there simply is no way for Gaddafi to win. The country will either be split, or he will be forced out. Capturing Sirt would probably accomplish this faster than besieging it.

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Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

Brown Moses posted:

Sorties conducted 19JULY: 113
Strike sorties conducted 19 JULY: 40

I'm new here, so what were the other 73 sorties? Recon, strike missions that ended up not firing?

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

Saw this pop by on twitter: "Breaking: MISRATA/ZLITEN Freedom fighters captured 10 G soldiers and seized 4 vehicles - also managed to link southern+western fronts"

What fronts are they talking about? I initially thought they meant the southern surge had somehow reached Misrata, bypassing Sirt, but that's impossible, though it sounds like it could be viable if the southern leg does well. Does it mean the Nafusa Mountains are linked to Misrata now? Or is it a much smaller set of fronts they mean?

Or maybe it was just twitter.

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

Patter Song posted:

Tripoli, being a fifth of Libya population-wise, is going to be the most difficult part of this for the rebels. How are they going to crack this nut?

Would the regime simply fall if Gaddafi were killed? Cut off the head, the body withers? Add in his general sons too if necessary.

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

Thank you very much for these updates, Brown Moses, you're by far the best news source on this thing.

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

pylb posted:

Gaddafi hasn't opened fire on massive protests in Tripoli in a while. Libyan state TV is airing documentaries on NATO crusaders bombing hospitals and schools, seeking a genocide of the Libyan people. There have been fuel shortages for a while already, and if a famine hits, I'm not sure the population won't accuse the "Crusaders".

And that's maybe the genius of committing solely to air strikes - can't really up against troops that aren't there. The only troops they'll see are their countrymen, who curiously don't look like the crusaders.

(Then again, didn't we commit solely to air strikes in the former Yugoslavia? That didn't get us far...)

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

Brown Moses posted:

poo poo gets murkier, via @alihashem_AJA of Al Jazeera:

There's gunfire reported outside of the building in Benghazi where they just gave the press conference.

Great, have they just shafted the whole thing?

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

Brown Moses posted:

It won't effect Misrata and Nafusa, but it seems it's already stopped the advance on Brega, Richard Colbourn of the BBC tweeted this:

So... it's possible we might get a splintering? Tripoli, the Benghazi area fighting between the NTC and Younis-loyal forces, and a third, Misrata-based rebel government without the Younis issues?

Is Misrata's government officially loyal to the NTC anyway, or is it simply a matter of sharing the same enemy?

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

Brown Moses posted:

quote: "The fact that rebels have arrested one of the killers yet don't have Younis's body is the most troublesome immediate aspect of this."
I'm dense; why?

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

Brown Moses posted:

He said the capture of the Ghazaya could act as a springboard for the opposition to head towards the coast and cut off the coastal route between Tunisa and Tripoli, thereby cutting of a vital supply line for the Gaddafi regime.

I was under the impression Tunisia was not happy with Gaddafi, seeing how he supported Ben Ali. Or is this more along the lines of stopping smuggling?

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

Jut posted:

I still don't trust the NTC to run the country, nor do I want CQ in full power. An ideal solution would be for a ceasefire to be called, UN peacekeepers deployed, and a power-sharing agreement put in place.

Has power-sharing ever worked? (I ask out of ignorance, not sarcasm)

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

Jut posted:

I think he left the area a while ago.
This situation has been brewing for a while, it's not a flash crackdown like in Libya; yet the international community has ignored this just as they did with Bahrain.

I remember there being condemnations, but a no-fly zone would be far less useful in Syria, wouldn't it? What could the international community do that it hasn't already?

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

And, more importantly, we just bought new maps and globes for South Sudan. You can't expect us to have to buy new ones again for East Libya.

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

Namarrgon posted:

Neither is going to happen and Gaddafi is not going to sign a deal.

This is the same guy who pledged a cease fire and not only did he go back on it, he never even started it. So his word is not exactly sacrosanct to begin with.

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

Brown Moses posted:



You leave Peru alone!

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

Jut posted:

News from Libya seems to have taken a back seat on the BBC. The last thing they have is from the Younes killing a few days ago, and other papers have cut their Libya coverage. Are the media losing interest in this conflict?

The mass media always have the attention span of a 2 year old.

Edit: Except for Casey Anthony.

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

shotgunbadger posted:

Can we not call a position of 'NATO shouldn't be taking sides in a civil war and we shouldn't be acting like the rebels are some pure and saintly force immune from their flaws being pointed out' one that's 'pro-Qaddafi'? Unless I missed something Jut has never said 'yea, go CQ!' or something.

Had they not taken sides, Gaddafi would have won. Therefore, non-action was essentially pro-Gaddafi.

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

shotgunbadger posted:

Milosevic did literal genocide. Like, the real kind not the "this is a horrible killing" kind. If we were willing to work with him and not overtly call for his death (that's actually a huge thing not done) we could have at least tried with CQ.

Would it be wrong to say that at least part of this is revenge for Pan Am 103? Milosevic did a lot of things but he never blew up an American airliner over Scotland, killing 250 citizens of NATO countries.

Edit: Also, people keep saying "we could have tried". Did Gaddafi give any indication whatsoever that he was open to such attempts? At all? Especially after never ceasing fire when he promised to cease fire?

Golbez fucked around with this message at Aug 2, 2011 around 19:21

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

Tapatio posted:

Every comment on CNN's website coverage on Syria seems to implicate Israel in this uprising for some reason.

CNN did something amazing, once thought impossible, when they added comments - they found commenters worse than YouTube's.

pylb posted:

Last week the french forces conducted 60% of NATO's ground attacks, neutralizing around 80 targets. The frigates also fired on ground targets.

France is absolutely loving the opportunity to be geopolitically relevant.

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

DropsySufferer posted:

Finally, this is getting close, it's been a deadlock for months. Absolutely fantastic job on this thread, Brown Moses.
I must second this; this thread, and in particular Brown Moses's posts, have been by far the best outlet of information on the war.

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

Brown Moses posted:

Rumour is the private jets at Tripoli airport are arranged by the UN so Gaddafi and family can leave Tripoli.

Why by the UN?

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

Cable Guy posted:

I think KashiMane was talking about the "regime figures" as opposed to the rebels who got hit.

I'm not sure, I think he means the rebels, considering he once said

quote:

Looks like NATO and the "rebel" forces are out to get paid.

Golbez fucked around with this message at Aug 19, 2011 around 16:33

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

KashiMane posted:

Western involvement is pretty much the reason. We said no more after Iraq and yet, not only are we in Libya, but they fooled you into thinking that it's some humanitarian mission. Rebels picked the other side and are out to get paid. I don't care for either side, I care about the people of Libya. They are in the middle of a struggle for power and resources, and all we can do for them is call them "collateral damage" when they are murdered.

You apparently do, since you have only gloated when rebels die.

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

Brown Moses posted:

What's interesting now is you have a situation where the rebels in Benghazi might not actually play much of a role in the end game, and instead the Nafusa rebels and Misrata rebels will finish this.
Personally I'd prefer the rebels to trying and secure as many cities outside of Tripoli, and be joined by other rebels from those cities, which we've seen happen in Zliten and Zawiyah already. This would hopefully bring a greater sense of national unity once the dust settles, and hopefully reduce the chances of their being divisions.

In other words, let Tripoli rot while they consolidate the remainder of the country under one flag. That would seem to be a sound strategy.

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS


Heh, thanks, that is a hilarious blog. As for the video... less hilarious. A blog preaching to the choir is benign, broadcasting misinformation like this is malicious.

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

Brown Moses posted:

Here's the real truth about what's happening in Tripoli
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8IOj-MHE-v4

Lizzie Phelan and people like her... do they really believe their own bullshit, or are they towing a line for political gain?

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

natedogcool posted:

From Yahoo News front page today:



My heroine for the day. I love this photo.

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

thexerox123 posted:

Can someone give me some proof/a strong case that Lizzie Phelan isn't a reliable source?

Her own words.

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

I don't remember seeing it mentioned here, but according to an update to the the Wikipedia map of control made at 11:27am Eastern, Mitiga Airport has been captured by the rebels. This would leave only the district around the Bab al-Aziziya and Rixos Hotel, and the military port area, conclusively loyalist-held.

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

lorn Wayne posted:

So what's the over-under on 'The west installs a puppet/IMF shill, who sells off all state owned assets to private enterprises and siphons off most of the proceeds to his Swiss bank account while being lauded by major media outlets as Libya's saviour'?

Installed with what army?

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

Sir John Falstaff posted:

and to disprove it Saif would have to reveal his location.

Excellent point on that.

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

Brown Moses posted:

Yeah, any master plan that involves losing major military bases and opening up routes to major rebel strongholds seems pretty stupid to me.
Just wait until the Bab al-Azizya proves itself to be fully armed and operational.

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

CNN has a long and storied history of loving up maps:
http://sheikyermami.com/wp-content/uploads/qtas.jpg
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_2JhGoX_i6...afghanistan.jpg
http://www.whytraveltofrance.com/im.../cnnsfrance.jpg
http://maptd.com/wp-content/uploads...il-1024x575.jpg

Then again, it's not just CNN.
http://img3.ranker.com/user_node_im...hy-photo-u1.jpg

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

Furious Mittens posted:

Wow. I've never seen someone so full of bullshit like that since the Iraqi Information Minister. The rebels rolling into Tripoli by sea and land was all a ruse set up by the regime just to get their names and faces? Seems like someone didn't think their cunning plan all the way through.

Many Bothans died to get the rebels into Tripoli at the right time.

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

Nuclear Spoon posted:

I am F5ing the entire internet right now.

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

Nuclear Spoon posted:

"Blake Hounshell, managing editor of Foreign Policy tweets: Former high-ranking Libyan official claimed earlier that the tunnels beneath Bab al-Aziziya are booby-trapped."



Which will hopefully lead to video of a dead CQ snapped by one of his own diabolically huge mousetraps.

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

Alarabya Breaking: sources say independence flag has been raised on Gaddfi's house #Tripoli #Libya

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

CNN Breaking News posted:

Rebels say they have taken Gadhafi compound, Sara Sidner reports

quote:

Alarabya: live picture showing opposition vehicles streaming into #Gaddafi's Bab Alzizia compound in #Tripoli

Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS


quote:

AJA breaking: fighters announce their full control of Bab Alazizia through loudspeakers #Tripoli #Libya

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Golbez
Oct 9, 2002

SHATNER SECRETS

quote:

AJA: call w/activist: #Tripoli is under opposition control except Abu Slim area. #Libya.

quote:

AJA: call w/activist: remaining Katayeb in Bab Alazizia are "completely surrounded" #Tripoli #Libya

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