Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

the floor is baklava: May 4, 2003; SHAME

I'm not feeling too caught up in the issue of what the rest of the world should do, other than try to head off a humanitarian crisis. It is not up to the "international community" to affect the ongoing clashes decisively, as long as the anti-Gaddafi forces don't dilly-dally�and it appears they understand that. I think how events have panned out since Tunisia first flared up should give us a hint that the world is no longer in our hands so much. That was a major purpose for their taking place, after all.

Anyway, if any outside country got too heavily involved, it could jeopardize the safety of their citizens in Libya.

# ¿ Feb 25, 2011 15:24

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ¿ Apr 28, 2024 19:37

the floor is baklava: May 4, 2003; SHAME

farraday posted:

The problem with that idea is that between Beghazi and Tripoli is Sirte. Looking at the road network I do not think it would be easy to bypass if the pro Qaddafi forces there were willing to fight. If the East wants to help the west step one is taking Qaddafi's hometown.

That is accounted for in this article: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/26/AR2011022602622_2.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2011022602703

quote:

A small group of 22 rebels and soldiers who set out from Benghazi on Friday encountered pro-regime forces near Gaddafi's home town of Sirte and were executed, Gatrani said, in just one illustration of the hazards that any such army would encounter in attempting to traverse 600 miles of territory, pockets of which remain under government control.

But as it acknowledges and as we know, something must be done before thousands die of thirst and starvation.

# ¿ Feb 27, 2011 17:00

the floor is baklava: May 4, 2003; SHAME

Shageletic posted:

Uh...what?

I think it's pretty self explanatory. Either we act unilaterally in international crises or Freemasons will turn our children gay. Something like that.

# ¿ Mar 29, 2011 01:45

the floor is baklava: May 4, 2003; SHAME

The coalition was always limiting the scope of their bombing to the pretext of protecting civilians. Lightly armed troops facing rebels in the open cannot be targeted under that pretext. Other facilities behind the lines were targeted because they were vital to air defense in some way, though admittedly arms stores being targeted was a bit of a stretch under that rationale. But as has been repeatedly said, the coalition air force will not serve as air support for rebel troops. Hence the inevitable result we've just seen.

Unless there's a change of policy at NATO/the UN, or until/unless there's some major reversal of fortune for Gadhaffi (including his departure from office�which most of us know is highly unlikely), there'll be an impasse in the war, I expect that unless there's a big problem with logistics and/or morale or the troops' loyalty on the government side, the only thing that'll break the stalemate, short of widening the allowable scope of coalition actions (very unlikely), will be for the rebel forces to pause in their ongoing efforts long enough to upgrade the quality of their forces in terms of training and armaments, then recommence the battle when they're good and ready.

# ¿ Mar 29, 2011 21:57

the floor is baklava: May 4, 2003; SHAME

pylb posted:

I really don't see what the trouble is, the resolution says "all necessary measures, to protect civilians or civilian populated areas under threat of attack". Civilians themselves don't have to be under threat, cities in general count.

If I had to hazard a guess though, I'd say they relaxed a little on the day of the conference to show Gaddafi they were willing to cease fire if he stepped down.

The trouble is, a military unit that isn't threatening populated areas, let alone (unarmed) civilians in general, cannot be targeted under the UN's mandate. Ghadaffi's troops are engaging armed rebels outside populated areas.

And no one's relaxing beyond that. There've been quite a few missile attacks against targets around Tripoli in the past 24 hours.

# ¿ Mar 29, 2011 23:18

the floor is baklava: May 4, 2003; SHAME

XK posted:

Also, I saw an interesting anti-tank tactic posted a few days back: soaking carpets with fuel, then tossing them onto the tanks.

Saudi insurgents who occupied the Grand Mosque in Mecca (the one housing the Kabaa) in 1979 jammed rolled, fuel soaked carpets into the tracks of the army's APC's as the latter tried to drive the militants out. The Saudi military lost a number of vehicles to this tactic before they regained control of the mosque.

More on the crisis here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Mosque_Seizure

# ¿ Apr 5, 2011 02:26

the floor is baklava: May 4, 2003; SHAME

Fascinating piece in the Guardian today:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/24/libya-misrata-gaddafi-uprising-rebels

This part in particular aroused my interest:

quote:

Interview: 'We thought that we needed to rescue Misrata'

The tank driver was terrified, his hair matted, face blackened with soot, torn khaki trousers and white trainers stained with blood. For around 40 days he had been pounding Misrata. Now Mohamed Ahmed, of Muammar Gaddafi's 32 Brigade, was in the hands of the men he had been sent to kill. He was captured during a furious battle near the Libyan city's technical college. He was convinced retribution was on its way.

"Please give me an injection so I can die," he begged a doctor after being taken to the hospital by rebel forces.

Instead they stitched up his arm, which had been shredded by shrapnel, and cleaned wounds on his groin and his thigh. Speaking softy, he told them what had happened. His unit had been running out of food and ammunition for four days and were cut off from resupply. He said he had received a message from headquarters in Tripoli � a message that sounded less like an order to retreat than an admission that the soldiers were now on their own. "They said if you want to surrender, then surrender. If you want to die, you die."

Ahmed, 25, who is from the town of Zliten, east of Misrata, chose to fight. Many of his unit were killed, he said. He was captured after the house he was hiding in caught fire during an attack by rebels. Before being sent to Misrata, he had been told by his commanders that some people in the city had been destroying mosques, and that foreigners had invaded.

"We thought that we needed to rescue the people of Misrata," he said. "I feel Gaddafi cheated me. I am so sorry."

I've seen one other report of captured loyalist soldiers in Misrata saying they'd gone days without food. If true it could be very big news and perhaps a sign of things to come.

# ¿ Apr 24, 2011 01:16

the floor is baklava: May 4, 2003; SHAME

I'm guessing they'll try and just use them at night, otherwise I think it's a bit cocky to say the least. Technicals with AA guns seem to be so common in Libya you'd have a ridiculously hard time not winding up in one's (or more than one) sights every time you flew a mission. Used properly the really big ones can be incredibly effective. US forces took a quite a bit of damage and losses from those sorts of weapons in Iraq.

# ¿ May 27, 2011 00:34

the floor is baklava: May 4, 2003; SHAME

Ace Oliveira posted:

That doesn't surprise me. I have no idea why they choose Zuma of all people to go talk to Gaddaffi.

He's easily the most influential member of the AU, especially in the west. The visit was probably more symbolic than anything else, designed to reassert that the AU sought a peaceful resolution and didn't approve of the west's intervention. I'm sure they knew it would come to nothing.

# ¿ May 31, 2011 14:35

the floor is baklava: May 4, 2003; SHAME

THE HORSES rear end posted:

Sometimes I can't help but think that repressive regimes are simply a force of nature. They don't really think or plan beyond the single goal of staying in power at any costs, and with rare exception they simply will not go until they are threatened with overwhelming force. Even then, some still fight to the death.

Maybe they're afraid of the fate that awaits them once they are finally forced to answer for their crimes, and all this bloodshed is a sort of procrastination, delaying the inevitable even as it makes their inevitable demise worse.

I'd say you've pretty much hit the nail on the head, the pattern is pervasive among dictators and in fact varies little. Especially in the most historically autocratic and isolated regimes.

# ¿ Jun 10, 2011 21:53

the floor is baklava: May 4, 2003; SHAME

Ace Oliveira posted:

Jesus christ, the cameraman got hit by shrapnel from that RPG in the beginning. Jesus, that's intense.

That was the second part of the video. This is the first part:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBR6XQEWeIw&feature=mfu_in_order&list=UL

This is astonishing footage. You can see guys shooting at and perhaps trying to clear the building just a few yards away. You can hear the fear in the cameraman's voice, the sound of passing artillery rounds, and just shy of two minutes into the first part, a shell lands just feet away. This is easily the most intense, harrowing and clearly dangerous real life battle footage I've ever seen. Everyone should watch it, if they can take the gore�and be warned there's a good deal of that.

# ¿ Jun 12, 2011 02:38

the floor is baklava: May 4, 2003; SHAME

Paradox Personified posted:

A lot of talk is flying around now that Brega is under FF control. #Libya on twitter, as usual.

Word on Libya's blog is that there's fighting 13 km East of Brega, according to sources in Ajdabiya. Granted a lot can happen in the four hours since the latter report, but I'll believe Brega's liberated when I hear it from a reliable source. Here's hoping anyway.

# ¿ Jun 12, 2011 18:46

the floor is baklava: May 4, 2003; SHAME

dj_clawson posted:

Remember that "massacre at the Israeli border with Syria" last week? The one that was never proven to actually result in mass deaths? (But 20 Palestinians were shot around the same time - by Syrians, in the refugee camp in their country)

Turns out the Syrian government was behind it.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jun/14/document-syria-orchestrated-border-battles-israel/

If the document is authentic well I expect it'll be a huge scandal and we'll soon all be hearing about it endlessly.

However few things raise flags with me about that article. Firstly, The Washington Times is widely known to be a stridently right-wing paper, and I'm always inclined to question anything in it. Second, the source they cite appears to be a report in The Daily Telegraph by an apparent career pro-Israel advocate who claims the secret document was forwarded to him. He provides an image of said document in the article he posted: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/m...-golan-heights/

Also the fact that I had to do a search to find the article in the Telegraph website rather than seeing it smeared across the front page makes me wonder...

# ¿ Jun 14, 2011 23:14

the floor is baklava: May 4, 2003; SHAME

Jut posted:

It could be a good thing though. NATO will not let CQ advance on any rebel held areas, and if the rebel's military collapses then this could force negotiations and finally peace. The humanitarian crisis and ending this war asap should be the priority.

When Gaddafi sits down to serious negotiations in good faith I will eat some serious crow, by which I mean to say it won't happen.

The war will drag on for at least a year or two and the new regime will almost certainly disappoint everyone, but the idea that there's an alternative to forcibly deposing Gaddafi won't have much credibility before his attitude changes drastically, which I am certain will not happen.

I agree with your last sentence, though, with the qualification that the biggest humanitarian crisis centers around millions of people being ruled by a mass murderer. Peace must be restored ASAP, by defeating and deposing Gaddafi.

# ¿ Jul 29, 2011 15:44

the floor is baklava: May 4, 2003; SHAME

Golbez posted:

I was under the impression Tunisia was not happy with Gaddafi, seeing how he supported Ben Ali. Or is this more along the lines of stopping smuggling?

Supplies reaching Tripoli over the Tunisian border don't necessarily originate in Tunisia. It's just that the only viable, secure overland line of communication with the rest of Africa (and essentially the world) must pass through Tunisia, or at least it was until recently. I don't think Tunisia is blockading Libya at this point in their relations.

# ¿ Jul 29, 2011 15:53

the floor is baklava: May 4, 2003; SHAME

Wafflecopper posted:

Holy poo poo, that has to be the worst case of poor word choice (or Freudian slip) I've ever seen.

More like a bad case of needlessly fixating on stupid poo poo.

# ¿ Aug 12, 2011 19:17

the floor is baklava: May 4, 2003; SHAME

Brown Moses posted:

Here's the NATO report, if it reflects attacks yesterday it doesn't look like NATO helped out too much:

It's probably best they step back for now, things are moving so fast and the rebels now have a lot of heavy equipment that can easily be mistaken for regime assets.

# ¿ Aug 14, 2011 16:41

the floor is baklava: May 4, 2003; SHAME

Stroh M.D. posted:

In Egypt, protesters are crazy. According to the AJE reporter they "want to see the ambassador expelled, all ties between Israel and Egypt cut and reconsideration of the 1969 peace treaty".

They do realize an all-out war with Israel would not end well for Egypt, right?

Almost all Egyptians believe they won the Yom Kippur war decisively, and tend to have a very idealized perception of their military's capabilities. As you can imagine, that doesn't help keep a lid on things.

# ¿ Aug 21, 2011 14:09

the floor is baklava: May 4, 2003; SHAME

pylb posted:

I like this entry from the blog :

I like this part better:

quote:

Apologies for the confusion. Unlike the western media and Al Jazeera, who have not yet once apologised for their criminal lies that led to this war and continue to perpetuate it, which have been proven to be lies, any mistaken information here will be clarified asap. Although this is the only instance in which this has happened.

There is not an :ironicat:

big enough.

# ¿ Aug 21, 2011 14:22

the floor is baklava: May 4, 2003; SHAME

edit: My bad, looked at the first quote of him directly. God what a cretin.

the floor is baklava fucked around with this message at 21:35 on Sep 9, 2011

# ¿ Sep 9, 2011 21:14

the floor is baklava: May 4, 2003; SHAME

enigma74 posted:

An interesting read, just finished all of it. Lots of details about the stuff already reported in this thread.

My only WTF moment is seeing the rebel guys driving a sports car in a obvious glamour shot. Product placement (pg3)?

It's just one of those jeeps with a recoilless gun on it. All the same I like how they've got panties over the gun barrel, for luck I presume. The picture on page one looks more vainglorious than anything else, that kid with the machine gun scowling like he's Schwarzenegger or something.

# ¿ Sep 13, 2011 21:36

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ¿ Apr 28, 2024 19:37

the floor is baklava: May 4, 2003; SHAME

Xenoid posted:

Yeah I have no idea what the hell that even means. And it's spelt "litres" in the queen's, mate.

It's spelled "liters" in America, Darling Fascist Bullyboy. We have metric here too, we just spell things differently in our dialect. We're this whoooole other country, you see.

# ¿ Sep 14, 2011 14:30

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria