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Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Patter Song posted:

http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/06/26/12414144-turkey-to-help-liberate-the-syrians-from-dictatorship?lite


Does that guy that posted yesterday to the effect of "Turkey won't go to war over this" still feel that way?

This does seem like a pretty good pretext for a NATO bombing campaign a la Libya.

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Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

BBC News just reported another 85 Syrian soldiers + some commanders have defected. No online reports that I can find about it yet.


Edit: Here's one: http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/report-85-syrian-soldiers-defect-turkey-16698682

Deteriorata fucked around with this message at 21:36 on Jul 2, 2012

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Egyyptian Journalist Dies on Live TV While Defending Syrian Regime

quote:

We won't call it cosmic justice but it does make you wonder: On Wednesday, an Egyptian journalist died on live TV while defending Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime. The bizarre moment occurred on an Iraqi TV station during a heated on-air phone debate between the Egyptian 56-year-old, Adel Al-Gogary, and Brigadier-General Hossama, a member of the Free Syrian Army, who Al-Gogari called a "fugitive soldier" and a paid mercenary for Israel shortly before he died. According to the UAE's daily newspaper al-Bayan, he suffered from a blood clot Wednesday night and was pronounced dead on arrival at a hospital in Cairo.

It's the sort of situation where sympathies are due for the late journalist's family, who are receiving condolences today in his birthplace city Abu-Suweir. Still, it's hard to pick a worse time to be an Assad defender, as allegations build that his cronies just carried out the worst massacre yet in the 16-month conflict, resulting in the deaths of more than 200 men, women and children near Hama. According to the Pakistani newspaper The News Tribe, al-Gogary wasn't expressing an errant opinion. "Al-Gogari recently appeared on Al-Jazeera Arabic’s controversial programme 'The Opposite Direction', where he vehemently defended the Syrian regime, claiming that what is happening in the war-torn country is 'an international conspiracy' against Al-Assad." The above photo is taken from a previous interview. (Clips of the incident, which occurred on Iraq's al-Hadath private station, don't appear to be circulating on the web).

Allahu akbar

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Ghetto Prince posted:

heh, didn't notice the heavily armed soldiers patrolling the street until after I read the comments.

Yeah, I spotted them when the interviewer started to move his subject around to get them out of the framing of the shot.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Brown Moses posted:

My thoughts exactly, someone must have been filming it, be interesting if they got it at the moment of being shot down, might be able to see if it was missile or gun fire.

Looking forward to another Syrian state TV interview of people saying everything is fine while a helicopter crashes in flames in the background.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Lord Twisted posted:

Call me stupid, but how the hell does Brown Moses know all this cool stuff?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=raplvZFysjU

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Syria was an important client state for the Soviet Union during the Cold War, and remains an important ally of Russia. They've backed the Assads through thick and thin. They're not about to abandon such a relationship. Even if they want out, they are obliged to stick it through regardless or their reputation with their other allies will be jeopardized.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005


It does seem odd that it would be on the embassy letterhead, and not the President's. A possibility is that it was put together by some underlings hostile to Morsi and made it look legitimate. Part of a bid to undermine Morsi's power on behalf of the other factions, perhaps.

The Guardian's take had this:

quote:

An official in Peres's office – speaking anonymously because the issue concerned sensitive diplomatic relations between the two countries – said the president's aides received the official communique on Tuesday from the Egyptian ambassador to Israel, both by registered mail and by fax from the embassy in Tel Aviv.

Peres's office asked the Egyptian ambassador if it could publicise the letter or if it should be kept secret, the official said. The Egyptian envoy phoned Morsi's office to inquire, the official said, and then told Peres's aides that Morsi's staff had given the green light for the letter to be made public.

Nowhere does it say Morsi himself approved anything, only "Morsi's staff", who may have dubious loyalties in the mess that is Egyptian politics currently.

Honestly, that doesn't read like the writing of a guy fluent in English and with a PhD in Engineering. It reads like a translation of something originally spoken in Arabic, and typed out by somebody less familiar with English.

It may very well turn out to be genuine, but I'm in the skeptical camp until more evidence arrives. This just doesn't add up as something genuine at this point.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Patter Song posted:

Has the Regime managed to reverse its decline? It seems like the FSA's big offensive is all but over.

This was in the Times today:

Rebels Threaten Aleppo Airport, and a New Syria Envoy Is Chosen

quote:

Syrian insurgents fighting loyalist forces in the northern city of Aleppo seized areas near its airport on Friday, threatening the government’s control of a strategically vital supply conduit and scoring a propaganda victory in what has become a protracted battle in Syria’s largest metropolis.

Rebel commanders reached by phone said their fighters had advanced to within a few hundred yards of the airport perimeter. Syria’s state-run media, which have portrayed the Aleppo fighting by insurgents as a futile effort by criminal gangs, inadvertently confirmed the insurgent advance, reporting that government troops deployed around the airport had repulsed attacks.

“Our fighters are in all neighborhoods close to the airport,” said a rebel commander who identified himself as a former air force pilot named Wasel. The commander, who did not provide his full name for security reasons, also said the insurgents were benefiting from replenished supplies of ammunition after chronic shortages, “which is a reason for this progress.”
Their previous attempts fizzled due to lack of ammunition. New supplies have allowed them to renew the offensive.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

CoderCat posted:

The very first explosion seems to happen right where the tank is. Perhaps the truck catches fire later? I can't tell for sure to be honest. Too much smoke to be certain.

I did a few frame captures:


RPG fired:


Initial explosion:


Immediate aftermath:


That's pretty clearly out in the middle of the street where the tank was. The truck on the right gets spun around by the explosion. It was facing us at the beginning, you can see it perpendicular to the street afterward. Looks to me like they got the tank.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005


I'm thinking it may be some sort of kinetic energy weapon. There is no explosive (other than to blow it open, maybe), its point is just to rain shrapnel from on high on personnel below.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Still hoping for a mistake and our VR will return safe and sound.

However, it sure looks like bad news. He was a good guy and a solid mod.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Fruity Rudy posted:

Why would they be Libyans? Libya gains nothing out of this incident and stands only to lose. It's also clear from the protests on the street apologizing that the attack isn't even something they're happy about.

Far more likely there's an outside party involved here.

On the other side, why make the film in California? For a crappy video like they made, they could have filmed it anywhere. There wasn't much Hollywood talent or technology used.

This whole thing does smell, I'm just not sure what of yet.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

The Ender posted:

^^ This ^^

A mob of untrained people with firearms and petrol bombs can do a lot of damage on their own.

A mob of untrained people don't have a spotter taking pictures ahead of time (as Vilerat commented before it started), and don't have RPGs by accident, or drop mortars on an incoming marine brigade for fun. The consensus is that the protest was peaceful and reasonable but was used as a pretext for an attack by a militant group.

I've yet to read an account that suggests this was in any way a spur-of-the-moment thing by a handful of protesters run amok. They deliberately pursued and killed Chris Stevens.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

chairface posted:

I'd heard that vilerat said one of the "police" guarding them was taking pictures, does any one have more info on that?

Quoted from a Jabber conversation he was having:

(12:54:09 PM) vile_rat: assuming we don't die tonight. We saw one of our 'police' that guard the compound taking pictures

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Fangz posted:

I don't approve of this leak. The guy's a douche, for sure, but disclosing his identity like this has a strong chance of getting someone killed.

We already knew his "identity" except it was an alias. This is just connecting the disclosed name with the actual person. It's not like he's in the Witness Protection program or anything.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

cochise posted:

CNN is reporting via Reuters that arrests have been made in relation to the attack on the US Consulate in Benghazi.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/13/film-protests-arrests-idUSL5E8KDLW120120913?type=marketsNews

e: Found a link finally since CNN.com had nothing

That would be the best outcome, being handled as a law enforcement issue by the Libyan government. I hope civilization can win for once.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

truth masseuse posted:

Think Libya will ask for our assistance in disarming extremist militias?

Well, either they disarm voluntarily or a Hellfire missile will do it for them at this point.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Fruity Rudy posted:

What are you basing that on?

And frankly, not being suspicious of this video's creation at this point is a joke when you considered the massive amount of fraud surrounding it.

It's based on all the evidence surrounding the attack that's been discussed at length in this thread. The protest appeared to be spontaneous, but the attack on the consulate showed a lot of signs of coordination and planning. The attackers used the protest as cover.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Petey posted:

The "senseless act of violence" line deployed by Clinton is just prefabricated politician speak. Of course it wasn't senseless. The very same government (ours) has said it wasn't senseless: that it was probably a planned attack by people who knew what they were doing.

But most Americans won't be able to make sense of it and therefore the idea that this is "senseless" will be intelligible and resonate with them.

It is "senseless" in the meaning of "pointless" or "to no good end". Not that the people doing it had no sense of what they were doing.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Petey posted:

I disagree. It was not "pointless." Clearly the people risking their lives to violently protest thought there was a point. That the "point" is not intelligible within a modern, Enlightenment, liberal democratic worldview does not mean that there is not a point.

Rather than condescending to violent protestors ("look at those senseless, yelling, fighting babies, unable to connect cause with effect") I think it is rather important to take them at their word and behavior and try to understand what it signifies.

I am unfairly caricaturing your argument here Deteriorata (I know you ended by saying "Not that the people doing it had no sense of what they were doing") to make a more general point: it is incredibly stupid to critique these demonstrators as being stupid or misguided. Their internal logic is very different from our own, but we should be trying to understand it, not dismiss it.

No, I think you're being unfairly generous to them. Their goal was to cause mayhem. Attacking the US consulate and killing the ambassador, who was well like by Libyans generally. There was no point beyond destruction of the Libyan society. The protest over the movie was understandable. The attack on the consulate was not a random act of a mob gone wild.

az jan jananam posted:

Ok, let's understand this. These Salafi gangs haven't been "negatively impacted" by America's actions. In fact, the exact opposite. America was a crucial element of assisting the Libyan people in overthrowing Gaddafi, a dictator despised by the vast majority of the Libyan people. As a result of the revolution, these right-wing murderers were rid of the totalitarian element that had helped to keep their activities completely suppressed, they were able to raid Gaddafi's storehouses of weapons, and form armed gangs that have yet to be disbanded. After the political character of the Libyan people became apparent in the national elections, especially in a secularly minded place like Benghazi, they've become increasingly assertive in trying to wreck the development of political institutions in the country, destroy historical artifacts and libraries, along with terrorizing liberals and women to impose the worst type of Saudi-style fascism in Libya.

This was posted before, but as Libyan Khaled Mattawa describes here this attack was essentially another act in the long pattern of violent Salafi regressivism in the country.
This guy gets it. It was not some complex, hidden motivation my poor Western mind can't comprehend. The whole point of it was to be pointless, to destroy just for the sake of destruction.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Zudgemud posted:

Reducing extremist thugs to mindless drones are idiotic since extremism does not materialize out of thin air and infest the minds of random helpless victims, it takes indoctrination and experience to shape a mind like that, and those are very much influenced by factors like culture, economy and foreign policy.

People who think the way to settle differences is by wanton violence and killing are not welcome in any civilized society, anywhere. Whatever their grievances, their behavior is unacceptable. Period.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Brown Moses posted:

Which country could the US invade from the Gulf Coast that wouldn't be a hugely unpopular war during an election campaign?

Mississippi

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Radbot posted:

CBS is linking the two bomb threats called in at U of Texas and North Dakota state as being related to Al-Qaeda and these embassy attacks... any chance this is true?

Of course there's a chance. Threats can be called in by anyone from anywhere. Actual bombs would be a different story altogether.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

tekz posted:

The reason these protests and attacks on american embassies are spreading everywhere is because the koran burning and mohammed insulting is just the straw breaking the camels back on top of the piles of dead created by your country's hands. You cheerfully characterize every single civilian killed by the US as a 'bit of human filth' and absolve away the crime of the murders of women and children from their actual loving murderers, the only filth here is you.

The right wingers who honestly state that they don't care about ragheads or whatever you call it dying are in a way more refreshing than the hypocritical shitheads talking about freedom and democracy and the sanctity of human life when it's clear that it doesn't really matter to them.

You do realize that these guys wouldn't be targets if they weren't committing violent acts against American and its allies' interests in the first place right? If they put down their guns and seek to resolve their grievances peacefully, there's no longer any reason for attacking them.

They've declared war on the United States. Getting shot at by missiles is what happens when you do that.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

J33uk posted:

No, the US armed OBL during the 80's, the Taliban emerged in the 90's

Yeah, the Taliban are largely a creation of the ISI in Pakistan.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Amarkov posted:

I think Mubarak and the Saudis are basically the only modern examples of this, and I'm not entirely sure that the Saudis need Western support. Again, just the fact the US was involved in a country's politics does not prove that any protests against that government are about imperialism.

A lot of this is a relic of the Cold War, where putative allies of both would play the US and the SU off each other for more aid by threatening to move to the other. There was also a whole lot of poo poo stirred up by proxy wars in various places. That this discussion of American foreign policy in the last century has gone this far without mention of Cold War geopolitics is somewhat odd.

American foreign policy during the CW was all about containing the Soviets, and many nations in the world became pawns in the larger chess game between those two. Neither side really gave a poo poo about the long term effects on their client states - it was all about blocking the other.

We're still seeing echos of the Cold War in current neoconservative ravings. They really can't get away from Russia being our big enemy, and thinking in terms of Cold War gamesmanship.

So yeah, Americans walked all over and jerked around a lot of countries in the past. They didn't do it just to be assholes or because they enjoyed doing it, they were insensitive to local needs as they were focused on the Soviets above all. Doesn't excuse their behavior and states have a valid cause to be pissed about it, but it puts into a bit of perspective.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Amun Khonsu posted:

Deal with the Israeli issue and you will bring about peace faster than you can blink an eye.

The Israeli issue was also a relic of the Cold War. The US supported Israel, the Soviets supported the Arabs. The Palestinians became a convenient excuse for both sides to keep the proxy war going. It created a lot of wounds that are slow to heal.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Myrdhale posted:

Begs the question of why Sudan is taking such a hardline. What do they gain from overtly thumbing their nose at the U.S. like this?

Smug satisfaction. The US has been giving them poo poo over Darfur and South Sudan, so they're taking a chance for retaliation.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

sicarius posted:

Where did the story even emerge that Obama and the administration had previous warning about these attacks? I haven't seen that reported ANYWHERE credible. It seems like another of those things that started on twitter and blogs and spread like wildfire, so now every Obummer hater is just parroting it, but can't source it.

Hell - I couldn't even find it on Fox.

As I recall, The Independent ran a story with an unsourced unspecific claim about how somebody knew it was coming ahead of time. No one has since confirmed this claim and it seems to be largely bogus. The Independent was probably just making it up, hoping that it would turn out to have some sort of validity and they could claim the scoop.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

sicarius posted:

Any link to this article? It's, obviously, hard to search for so maybe someone has it bookmarked?

I ask because it's being brought up repeatedly on Facebook and I'm trying to calm my crazy BibleBeltConservapublican friends down.

How about if you ask them for a reference? Demand something from an actual news source, not a blog. They should have to prove their claim, not just spout random bullshit for you to try to prove false.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

sicarius posted:

I try. These are the people that believe it is my duty to disprove their claim, rather than the other way around. I regularly link to things and they either read it, dismiss it as "biased" or "lame stream media." Not only that, but I generally like to read the dissent myself - whatever my belief may be, I like to at least read what the other guy's points are first hand.

In my own experience, these people aren't worth arguing with. They're not interested in the truth, they're only interested in shouting you down.

It's a game for them. Their goal is to wear you down and frustrate you with a blizzard of bullshit, until you give up. That's how they win. The only way for you to win is to not play their game. Don't accept their premises, tell them everything is false without proof and do not respond unless they offer evidence. They'll eventually knock it off, or go bug someone else.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Katreus posted:

What is the impact of arrest warrants for Terry Jones and the Egyptian Coptics? We have an extradition treaty with Egypt, right? Would the US send them over (assuming Egypt follows the proper procedure in requesting them)?

I think the only repercussion is that they will be arrested if they ever travel to Egypt. I doubt they will make that mistake.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Warcabbit posted:

So, if I'm reading this right, it's somewhat of a stalemate till someone gets a beheading strike in on Asad?

... yeah, I do mean that literally.

Well, the Lebanese managed to keep a civil war going for like 15 years, so there's precedent.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Brown Moses posted:

One thing I've noticed recently with activist videos are the increasing numbers showing cats or birds, as if the activists have realised dead kids aren't just pulling at the heart strings anymore.

Maybe they should make a movie of Assad insulting Mohammed.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Crasscrab posted:

It's because it doesn't appeal to Americans. The news in America might as well be considered part of the entertainment industry.

Yeah, disturbing images drive away viewers which means fewer eyeballs to see ads.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Augure posted:

I was wondering if the only response I would get would be "Well those people were terrorists despite what anyone says." Bravo.

Interviewing 69 people hand-selected by an organization with an obvious partisan agenda to provide evidence is not "data". It's anecdotes.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Augure posted:

Absolutely I think their methodology was scientific. Did you read the paper? Nobody is claiming that their sources are unbiased, but you appear to be claiming that their sources are uniformly liars.

Actually, the paper doesn't seem very scientific at all. It appears that the conclusion was reached first, then evidence gathered to support it. The authors are lawyers, not sociologists, so their sociological conclusions are suspect from the very start. It is not an academic paper, it is an argument in favor of a particular point of view - something I would expect lawyers to write, honestly.

I have no doubt that there is a lot of truth in what they say. It is not, however, something I would cite as an objective study of the issue.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Highspeeddub posted:

He's tweeting like crazy. Keeps saying he's about to captured and drugged. Poor Caro.

Apparently his superhuman genetic composition renders him invulnerable to such tactics, though. I have no idea what the gently caress is going on.

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Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

mikemil828 posted:

Enough that the Turks are now responding with counter battery fire. If this is going to turn into a full on war, nows the time.

There have been so many groups standing on the sidelines, wailing and wringing their hands that SOMEBODY needed to do something about Syria (but not them), that having Turkey invade and depose Assad would solve too many peoples' problems to let this opportunity pass. If Turkey is willing to take it on and deal with the aftermath themselves, I can't see too many folks (including Russia) that wouldn't tacitly endorse it.

There's always the chance it goes completely berserk, but since Syria was heading that way regardless, I suspect most interested parties are willing to let Erdogan get his war on and work to keep the mess contained.

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