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Toffile posted:oWAR is based off of runs created, pWAR is based off of FIP, and dWAR depends between Fangraphs and B-R but basically you shouldn't look at it because advanced fielding metrics suck. Awesome, thanks. Can you (or anyone) expand on why advanced metrics are unreliable? I assume that's why they suck.
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| # ? Nov 19, 2011 04:55 |
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| # ? May 22, 2013 11:12 |
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Gunfighter_IX posted:I've seen some people who really like WAR (or WARP as I've seen it sometimes) and others who think WAR/WARP is really dumb. So I guess I have two questions: WAR/WARP are actually "different" stats, but basically what happens is that (for hitters) you take some metric that assigns a number of runs above replacement scored on offense and some metric for a number of runs above replacement on defense, then add them together. If you want to get fancy, throw in something about baserunning. Then divide by 10. But everyone chooses slightly different stats to base them on: check out your favorite player on Baseball-Reference.com and Fangraphs.com and you'll see that they probably have a different WAR on each site. This "which stat do we use" problem is one of the big issues. The biggest, however, is that we simply don't have any defensive stats that are in the ballpark as the good offensive stats (like wOBA/wRC+). SAS in particular has seen a huge backlash against stuff like UZR, which is the defensive component in Fangraphs WAR. Not only are we unsure if these stats are reliable indicators of players' skill, we really don't know how well defensive skill translates into runs, and hence into wins. So ultimately combining offense and defense adds a fair bit of uncertainty. WAR is also disparaged because it leads to a lot of really stupid analysis. Dave Cameron is particularly infamous for defending really stupid proposed trades with the argument to "add up the WARs": he claims that a trade is fair if both sides receive an equal amount of WAR in players, completely discounting uncertainty or the fact that player value doesn't scale linearly (it's harder to find a 10-WAR free agent than five 2-WAR guys). Similarly, WAR has been extended by some folks into a guideline that players are "worth" about $4M/WAR on the open market, which is such an unbelievable simplification of an already-questionable issue that I honestly can't believe it. Still, many people (for example, the bloggers at Pirates Prospects) try to use these player values to evaluate trades and signings and wind up saying completely laughable things; Pirates Prospects recently suggested, for example, that Washington would have to pay the Pirates $2M to give up a nothing prospect for Adam LaRoche. e: Essentially, the lesson to learn from WAR is that when you have a whole bunch of data, trying to boil everything down into only one number is going to introduce a lot of uncertainty in your conclusions. It's still just fine for a quick glance, but if you're trying to analyze something in depth then you should actually go...in-depth. Mornacale fucked around with this message at Nov 19, 2011 around 05:05 |
| # ? Nov 19, 2011 05:01 |
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Gunfighter_IX posted:Awesome, thanks. Apart from that, we'll sing praises of OBP, SLG, wRC, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, OPS...
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| # ? Nov 19, 2011 05:03 |
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Toffile posted:oWAR is based off of runs created, pWAR is based off of FIP, and dWAR depends between Fangraphs and B-R but basically you shouldn't look at it because advanced fielding metrics suck. Pitcher WAR on bref isn't based on FIP, it's based on RA.
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| # ? Nov 19, 2011 05:29 |
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OdinsBeard posted:Pitcher WAR on bref isn't based on FIP, it's based on RA. Oh yeah, I forgot that. Fangraphs uses FIP. There's going to be discrepancies between Fangraphs WAR and B-R WAR because of that. In general, the value's going to be slightly different, but the relative values of the pWAR should be similar. FIP, RA, and ERA tend to be highly correlated (especially as defense has gotten better over the years).
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| # ? Nov 19, 2011 05:55 |
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Toffile posted:In general, the value's going to be slightly different, but the relative values of the pWAR should be similar. FIP, RA, and ERA tend to be highly correlated (especially as defense has gotten better over the years). Not really, and if they were a lot of annoying arguments about FIP would disappear.
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| # ? Nov 20, 2011 01:18 |
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UZR really isn't all that bad 
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| # ? Nov 20, 2011 01:49 |
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I CHALLENGE THEE posted:UZR really isn't all that bad I actually agree with this ... I'll go into exile now
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| # ? Nov 20, 2011 02:21 |
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If it's the last thing I ever do, it'll be to remove intentional walks from personal stats. Why the hell are they still included.
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| # ? Nov 20, 2011 02:26 |
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Quasimango posted:If it's the last thing I ever do, it'll be to remove intentional walks from personal stats. Why the hell are they still included.
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| # ? Nov 20, 2011 02:48 |
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Quasimango posted:If it's the last thing I ever do, it'll be to remove intentional walks from personal stats. Why the hell are they still included.
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| # ? Nov 20, 2011 03:18 |
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I honestly don't know if Bonds having the highest walk total ever courtesy of like 700 IBBs, or if Rickey Henderson being second all time with almost no IBBs is more impressive.
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| # ? Nov 20, 2011 03:29 |
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I CHALLENGE THEE posted:UZR really isn't all that bad It kind of is; it still relies on the eye of a human scorer, which has an uncontrollable tendency to mark the location of the ball closer to the fielder (the scorer's only visual landmark) than it actually is, which is readily apparent if you compare scorer data to hit f/x data.
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| # ? Nov 20, 2011 03:30 |
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Fag Boy Jim posted:I honestly don't know if Bonds having the highest walk total ever courtesy of like 700 IBBs, or if Rickey Henderson being second all time with almost no IBBs is more impressive. even before he broke baseball he still walked a gently caress of a lot Moe_Rahn fucked around with this message at Nov 20, 2011 around 03:37 |
| # ? Nov 20, 2011 03:35 |
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loving quote != edit gotdamn since this post is already wasted i'll just use it to say that if you don't have that slash line memorized then get the gently caress out of sas
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| # ? Nov 20, 2011 03:36 |
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Moe_Rahn posted:if you subtract all of barry's intentional walks and leave everyone else's stats the same he only drops to 4th all-time (behind henderson, ruth, williams) Also even if he wasn't IBBed he would have undoubtedly drawn a walk in a good chunk of those PAs so he might have been higher than 4th.
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| # ? Nov 20, 2011 03:42 |
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it's worth noting that Babe Ruth and Ted Williams would probably drop a lot too if they had actually recoreded IBBs back then (I don't think it's unfair to say that Babe Ruth got IBBed more than once). Joe Morgan is another guy up there on the list with very few IBBs. (not that he thinks that matters)
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| # ? Nov 20, 2011 03:44 |
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Moe_Rahn posted:loving quote != edit gotdamn I always remember the .362 
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| # ? Nov 20, 2011 04:02 |
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Moe_Rahn posted:.362/.609/.812 quit using OBP/SLG/OPS you poo poo
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| # ? Nov 20, 2011 05:48 |
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CraigK posted:quit using OBP/SLG/OPS you poo poo heh
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| # ? Nov 20, 2011 06:15 |
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jeffersonlives posted:Not really, and if they were a lot of annoying arguments about FIP would disappear. I always though FIP and ERA correlated reasonably well within the same year. I at least remember reading something on Fangraphs about it sometime in the past.
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| # ? Nov 20, 2011 07:08 |
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Toffile posted:I always though FIP and ERA correlated reasonably well within the same year. I at least remember reading something on Fangraphs about it sometime in the past. Tip to all lurkers and newbies: the articles on Fangraphs suck and are often intellectually dishonest.
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| # ? Nov 20, 2011 07:23 |
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Toffile posted:I always though FIP and ERA correlated reasonably well within the same year. I at least remember reading something on Fangraphs about it sometime in the past. Not for Matt Cain!
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| # ? Nov 20, 2011 07:31 |
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jeffersonlives posted:Tip to all lurkers and newbies: the articles on Fangraphs suck and are often intellectually dishonest. Which sites have the best articles?
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| # ? Nov 20, 2011 23:34 |
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jetgrindeggy posted:Which sites have the best articles? Hardball Times usually has the best stuff, but their site hasn't seen any changes since like 1999. Tom Tango's blog is pretty good too.
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| # ? Nov 20, 2011 23:35 |
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So Baseball Reference's pitcher splits pages have a whole lot of info on a whole lot of things, but is there any use in looking at a pitcher's performance against "good" hitters? I feel like it would be interesting to compare two pitchers on how they pitch against >100 OPS+ players, but that's not really something the b-r splits cover. It seems like this could help compare CYA contests where one pitcher puts up better numbers but is derided for being in an awful division. Does that make sense?
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| # ? Nov 28, 2011 21:18 |
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OzFactor posted:So Baseball Reference's pitcher splits pages have a whole lot of info on a whole lot of things, but is there any use in looking at a pitcher's performance against "good" hitters? I feel like it would be interesting to compare two pitchers on how they pitch against >100 OPS+ players, but that's not really something the b-r splits cover. The problem is that you might get small sample flukes. BR splits do have information how a pitcher did versus particular spots in the lineup, but obviously this would also be subject to some sample size noise as well. At BP, Jay Jaffe examined pitchers' OPS against and then normalized it to the OPS of their competition faced. Basically, he came up with adjusted OPS+ against-- for a particular pitcher, he calculated the OPS+ they allowed, but instead of using league average to calculate OPS+, he used the average OPS of competition faced.
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| # ? Nov 28, 2011 22:05 |
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I wasn't really paying attention a year or so ago when this was probably discussed at length, but what was the reason (if there even was one) for Bautista's sudden turnaround? Changed batting stance? New contact prescription? Sold soul to the devil?
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| # ? Nov 29, 2011 02:14 |
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William T. Hornaday posted:I wasn't really paying attention a year or so ago when this was probably discussed at length, but what was the reason (if there even was one) for Bautista's sudden turnaround? Added a timing step. Yeah.
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| # ? Nov 29, 2011 02:15 |
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Roids 
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| # ? Nov 29, 2011 02:16 |
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escaped pirates disease
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| # ? Nov 29, 2011 02:36 |
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:escaped pirates disease "I feel like hitting a few dingers!" "There ya go!" "And my gums stopped bleeding!"
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| # ? Nov 29, 2011 02:39 |
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William T. Hornaday posted:I wasn't really paying attention a year or so ago when this was probably discussed at length, but what was the reason (if there even was one) for Bautista's sudden turnaround? According to him Vernon Wells told him to start swinging way earlier and it turned him into a dinger machine. I dunno.
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| # ? Nov 29, 2011 02:44 |
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William T. Hornaday posted:I wasn't really paying attention a year or so ago when this was probably discussed at length, but what was the reason (if there even was one) for Bautista's sudden turnaround? He's had all the tools before, he just never put them all together at once. The Legend goes that Jays hitting coach Dwayne Murphy went to then-GM JP Ricciardi and said "hey I can make this guy good and he won't cost anything to acquire" so Ricciardi traded for him and Bautista has basically been invincible since they made him a full time player in September 2009.
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| # ? Nov 29, 2011 03:16 |
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So with the Astros looking for a GM I was wondering who SAS thought were the top 5 GMs in MLB today.
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| # ? Nov 29, 2011 09:57 |
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Cashman Epstein Friedman And I like what Alex Anthopolous and Jack Zduriencik are doing, even though the results aren't there yet VV knew i would forget somebody CraigK fucked around with this message at Nov 29, 2011 around 10:23 |
| # ? Nov 29, 2011 10:12 |
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Private Snowball posted:So with the Astros looking for a GM I was wondering who SAS thought were the top 5 GMs in MLB today. Friedman Beane Cashman Epstein AA
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| # ? Nov 29, 2011 10:14 |
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Is Cashman really that excellent? It seems like the Yankees have a whole lot of shaky contacts that would sink a poorer team. I'm not saying he's bad, but is he really top-5?
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| # ? Nov 29, 2011 10:52 |
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Was there ever any truth to the allegations of Bautista being fed the pitching calls by some dude in cf? Or was that just opposing fan bullshit?
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| # ? Nov 29, 2011 12:00 |
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| # ? May 22, 2013 11:12 |
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How about park factor? Left field at PNC Park is huge, did leaving there help?
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| # ? Nov 29, 2011 12:43 |
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