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Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


One Sick Puppy posted:

Does the manager have as big of a role as people think he does in the MLB? I usually seem to think all they do is set up lineup cards.

Dumb question, I know.

Another point that hasn't been brought up yet: as much as people love to complain about it, batting order really doesn't matter all that much. The difference between the best and worst possible lineups only results to like 10 runs over the entire season.

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Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


OdinsBeard posted:

I was under the impression it was more like 50 runs; but the worst possible line up would be something ridiculous no one would ever use. So the difference between the best line up and a dumb but not insane one would probably not be more than 10 runs or so.

Yeah that's what I was getting at. Like the only way to go as high of a difference as you're saying would be stuff like batting the pitcher leadoff.

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


There's a pretty good detailed explanation of what leokitty just posted in Moneyball, which you really should read if you want to get into baseball more.

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


I have another prospect question. Moustakas and Hosmer are starting the season in AAA. Don't most highly touted prospects skip AAA completely? If so, why?

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


leokitty posted:

Hitters do not normally skip AAA completely, the type of pitchers there are different from your AA prospects generally and it's good to get exposure to ~~crafty lefties~~ and all that poo poo before you go to MLB and suddenly have an Andy Pettitte type vet throwing seventeen million different good pitches at you in bizarre sequences.

It's not uncommon for pitchers to skip AAA or spend zero time there if their stuff/control/etc is all ready to go.

Yeah this is what I was thinking but with all good prospects instead of good pitching prospects.

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


tadashi posted:

Does anyone know enough about Pitch f/x to explain what we are learning from it so far (other than the fact that umps suck)? I am trying to read this primer: http://fastballs.wordpress.com/2010...itchfx-primer/. It's really in depth but gently caress me if it isn't dense and hard to read as hell.

I know what Pitch f/x is and what it might be able to do. What I want to know is what we are learning from it or what we have learned so far. I hear that some people think it will actually show that some pitches (and you have to take location, pitch type, break, etc. into account) may actually correspond with batted ball outs more than others.

It could be used if Pitcher X has an insane start to the season. You could look at the movement charts to see if his stuff has actually improved or if it's just a small sample size fluke.

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


I am Bob posted:

So how bad/annoying of a manager is LaRussa and is a lot of the angst towards him because of the media sucking his nuts all the time?

He is The Worst

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


FairGame posted:

Can you remove that awful LaRussa quote in this year's N/V threads? I hate it so much

Nooooooo my legacy

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


One Sick Puppy posted:

Nope, that'd be Wainwright for JD Drew and Eli Marrero

Mark Mulder for Dan Haren, Daric Barton, and Kiko Calero. Every single one of those players put up a higher WAR in Oakland than Mulder did in STL.

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


It's a shame it's going to start cracking soon

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


volatile bowels posted:

Cool, thanks for the heads-up. I was watching the Twins yesterday and their hat logo totally threw me for a loop. Is the cinci reds "C" logo the most ubiquitous logo in sports? I swear the bears stole it from them too. And I feel like the Indians had the same logo 100 years ago or so.

Ubiquitous between other teams or in society? Because in society I would say it's the Yankees' logo. I mean, it's on the head of America's most storied songwriter!

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


leokitty posted:

I go to a bunch of day games a year and use some of my PTO to attend. Many of the people who sit around me in season seats do the same. There are also people who don't work 9-5 who go, when I worked the night shift at a comic book store (5p-1:30a) I'd hit up day games. People also give their tickets to retired parents/family friends/etc.

Was being a female employee at a comic book store as awkward as it seems it would be?

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


chrysamere posted:

So I've been playing a lot of Baseball Mogul lately. For interest, I'll simulate one game over and over, a few times.

Each time, the game result was totally different. Generally, Helickson pitched well, but one of the games he got shelled. Is baseball really this totally random, or is this just Baseball Mogul's modus operandi?

BM can get some wonky results, but yes baseball is extremely random.

An example:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/b...201005070.shtml

Felix Herandez in the middle of his Cy Young season gets shelled by a mediocre Angels lineup. It includes giving up the only career homerun of Ryan Budde, a AAAA catcher.

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


I'm totally fine with per 9 on pitching statistics. If you did per IP or BF, it would be a lot harder to tell where someone ranks if they're not on the extreme side of good or bad. For example, I know that 7 K/9 is a decent but not great number. I would have a lot harder time knowing off the top of my head if 0.778 is decent, just that it's not incredible or awful.

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


I believe that OOTP of all things does that so you could import the numbers into that every time you want to check!

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


I remember readig a great case for why % is superior, but it still has the problem where it's kind of hard to tell where players fall outside of the extreme numbers. Let's get some site to post K%+ and BB%+ and I'm totally fine with it. And I remember seeing that K and BB rates actually have park factors, so also post K%++ and BB%++

e: lets start our own stat website. goon project!!

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


Tiny Torso posted:

I think the rest of the roster would have to all be terrible at getting on base before you'd consider putting him first just for those few extra PAs over the course of the season.

I have news for you...

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


I said something to this effect earlier ITT, but OOBP, due to its larger range in numbers, is also easier to seperate the good, mediocre, and bad than WHIP.

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


Torii Hunter is a megadick as well

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


stuart scott irl posted:

I do love Jered Weaver, who gets seemingly no press at all for being one of the best pitchers in baseball right now

The poor guy basically had the worst season to have a breakout year. Between him and Felix/Price/Lester/CC, the AL CY race was insane

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


Herbasaurusex posted:

Please allow me to interrupt steroid chat to ask this question:

What is the difference in expected runs between a single and a walk?

Here's an awesome table for more info

http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902event.html

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


Imasalmon posted:

It depends on the development of the current players, the drafts that occur, and free agency moves.

There are a few pieces in the farm that might be pretty darn good (Ariel Ovando, Jordan Lyles, JD Martinez), but they are all very young. Ovando is 17, Lyles is 20. Things are slowly starting to turn, but we are looking at a best case scenario of 2 years for them to be anything but a joke, and likely 5+ before they are competitive. This is an optomistic view. I mean, if everyone hits their top projections, and if we draft some more good talent who also meet their top end projections, and if they acquire the right free agents, the club could be pretty darn good in 5 years. Also, Drayton wants to sell the team, so he won't be investing money into free agents. This has a good side to it, though, since the last time he threw big money anywhere it was paying Carlos Lee $100m to be slow and fat.

You forgot Delino Deshields Jr!!


Coco13 posted:

I remember hearing something that all catchers were either left or right handed, I forgot which. Am I making something up, or is there a reason for that?

They're all righty. The reason being that if they were left handed and had an arm good enough to be a good catcher, they are pushed into becoming pitchers early in their career.

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


Bob Shabazz posted:

If he wants exciting I don't think any team is as exciting as Texas right now.

Agreed. A stacked lineup, a closer that makes you just drop your jaw watching him throw, and a crazy dumb manager who will make you yell out loud.

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


I'm going to plug CJL's blog on pitch sequencing

http://onthescrewsblog.wordpress.com/

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


Longbaugh01 posted:

Does anyone think catchers have any sort of advantage hitting as a result of their experience with calling games?

No because 90% of the time the catcher is the worst hitting starter on the team.

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


A drat FOG posted:

Isn't that due to the physical difficulty and talent scarcity though? It's possible that they can have a large disadvantage and a small advantage and come out behind. It's still interesting to think about.

vvv Yeah I know it's negated, I was just saying it's still interesting to think if it affects them at the plate. If the newbie question involves catchers actually being better hitters overall, obviously the answer is no

It's possible, I suppose, but how would we attempt to quantify it? I was thinking about P/PA, since there is probably some mental skill to working a count. I looked up last year's leaders in the AL, to negate pitching around catchers to get to a pitcher. In the top 40, I see three catchers, noted bad defenders VMart and Napoli, and Joe Mauer.

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


A good in-progress example of old people skills starting to decline is Ryan Howard.

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


I feel like it should be mentioned that it is still scored as a strikeout. That's how you get an occasional 1 IP, 4 K line from a pitcher.

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


loosenukes posted:

When do pitchers start to really gain their velocity - in the later years of high school, college, or not until they hit the minors? I think I recall in A Player To Be Named Later that a pitcher starts to learn and develop their second and third pitches in the minors, but I don't think I've ever seen a discussion of when velocity starts to hit the 90s.

In high school. Look at the top high school pitching prospects any year and you'll see them throwing 90s.

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


JediGandalf posted:

I think you can have an arbitrary length to the outfield wall but there is a definite guideline as to how the infield is shaped. Personally I wish stadiums would have a 400' arc as the outfield wall and that be a standard across MLB instead of arbitrary outfield walls. That way the only "park factor" is the climate in which the stadium is located.

Are Dumb Hills allowed?

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


Bob Shabazz posted:

Tal's Hill owns if you hate centerfielders

My teams isn't employing the Melkman, so I don't.

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


Couldn't you also have a guy walk, and the next 3 batters ground into a fielder's choice? That's also a lot more plausible than 3 pickoffs or CS

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


Yeah I just looked it up, it does count as an AB.

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


Choose the Diamondbacks because Mark Grace is the best announcer in baseball

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


The baserunning values at the most would affect someone's WAR by like .3. The issues with UZR is a much bigger problem that BSR

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


Man-Thing posted:

Is there an omnibus thread or article that talks about why specifically baseball is broken, the various (bad) ideas and then the ONE TRUE SOLUTION?

My old roommate skaboomizzy suggested adding a 10-team B-league and doing promotion/relegation for the top 2 and bottom 2 respectively, and you only get revenue sharing if you're in MLB, not the B-league, to encourage teams to be competitive.

If you have a problem with competitive balance in the MLB, then emulating the EPL is probably the worst route to go.

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


Man-Thing posted:

gently caress you.

Since then, the Pirates payroll has stayed mostly the same, but they are the biggest spending team in the draft now. Having a salary floor would hurt teams like the Pirates and Rays a lot.

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


Ken "Hawk" Harrelson

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


A drat FOG posted:

unironically agreeing with this ironic post

That was not ironic. Hawk owns

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Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


Dr. Kyle Farnsworth posted:

And you should listen to Hawk a few times to figure out how deep the level of irony in this thread is.

You're wrong. And YOU CAN PUT IT ON THE BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRD

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