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Argue
Sep 29, 2005

I represent the Philippines

Are you in any way involved with the blog? Because I just wanted to say that it's really one of the most interesting reads I've seen. Everyone else: proclick

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GregNorc
Dec 30, 2004

Computer Janitors Local 219

Do you know if they share data with researchers? I study online privacy and am very interested in (anonymized) data sets. We have people who develop crazy statistical techniques to piece together innocuous information to identify people, we'd be able to make OKtrends look like some crappy Xanga.

GregNorc fucked around with this message at Apr 13, 2011 around 02:58

Lakitu7
Jul 10, 2001

Watch for spinys

This is interesting. Thank you for posting here.

Question: Roughly what's the algorithm for quiver matches? Is there anything to it more than "three random people that meet your criteria and match above ~80%"?

Suggestion: In one of the oktrends, they used data from that box where you can type the profile name of a person you met on okc as your reason for deactivating a profile. But the thing is, your most loyal-or-whatever users will probably just set their profile as "seeing someone" and go inactive rather than actually disabling it. There's more data to be had if you were to add a box to type a name in when you select "seeing someone", with an option to display this publicly or not. I realize this isn't your area, but this falls under "is it ever going to happen".

Suggestion: Also not really your area, but based on my time in the other okc thread, some of your users would probably be helped by more options for these profile fields:
sex/gender/looking-for/interested-in: people of various sexual persuasions not quite hetero/homo/bi seem pretty torn on how to handle these. To be fully progressive, they might even be better served with a write-in box for people to use whatever sexual label they please. Heck, even having a field for this rather than just taking it from your match preferences would probably help.
drugs: something to differentiate between "smoke weed everyday" and "do heroin everyday" since right now both want to say "frequently." The standard seems to be that people who do weed only write "---" but such an unspoken convention is hardly user friendly.

[edit] Oh, yeah, that one below really messes with users a lot. I "vote" for it too.

Lakitu7 fucked around with this message at Apr 13, 2011 around 06:43

Millstone
Dec 20, 2007


How would I, an internet user living on a border of two countries, restrict my matches to only one of those countries.

RoboCicero
Oct 22, 2009

Soda, soda, everywhere, but not a drop to drink.

What's the deal with the occasional math or literature match question that pops up that I can't skip out of? Are these anti-spam measures, or are you just really interested in the average IQ of an OKCupid user?

Plus_Infinity
Apr 12, 2011



ChrizpG posted:

I guess you probably don't talk to engineering about this but I'm curious as to what sorts of machine learning techniques are applied to that glorious data. I figure you can't be too specific or whatever but it'd be neat to know if its a sophisticated neural network that knows who I'd like to date.

I have no idea, I'm sorry! The best I can give you is a slightly nerdy breakdown of how the match percentage algorithm works: http://www.okcupid.com/help/match-percentages

Plus_Infinity
Apr 12, 2011



quote:

Are you in any way involved with the blog? Because I just wanted to say that it's really one of the most interesting reads I've seen. Everyone else: proclick

nope, that's my buddy Christian. He's awesome!

quote:

Do you know if they share data with researchers? I study online privacy and am very interested in (anonymized) data sets. We have people who develop crazy statistical techniques to piece together innocuous information to identify people, we'd be able to make OKtrends look like some crappy Xanga.

Nope, they absolutely don't share the information with anyone, even anonymized.

quote:

This is interesting. Thank you for posting here.

you're welcome!

quote:

Question: Roughly what's the algorithm for quiver matches? Is there anything to it more than "three random people that meet your criteria and match above ~80%"?

any suggested match on the site is simply match % and what you enter on your profile under "Looking For". The algorithm will tweak itself if one person rates another highly, if one person adds the other to their favorites, if the person is a harder-to-match age or location on the site, etc. This goes for quiver, quickmatch, "you might like", etc.

quote:

Suggestion: In one of the oktrends, they used data from that box where you can type the profile name of a person you met on okc as your reason for deactivating a profile. But the thing is, your most loyal-or-whatever users will probably just set their profile as "seeing someone" and go inactive rather than actually disabling it. There's more data to be had if you were to add a box to type a name in when you select "seeing someone", with an option to display this publicly or not. I realize this isn't your area, but this falls under "is it ever going to happen".

Hm, that's a good idea and I'll pass it along. We don't really use that data publicly, so I'm not sure if it's the most interesting data set that they'd want to create, but it might be!

quote:

Suggestion: Also not really your area, but based on my time in the other okc thread, some of your users would probably be helped by more options for these profile fields:
sex/gender/looking-for/interested-in: people of various sexual persuasions not quite hetero/homo/bi seem pretty torn on how to handle these. To be fully progressive, they might even be better served with a write-in box for people to use whatever sexual label they please. Heck, even having a field for this rather than just taking it from your match preferences would probably help.

I have absolutely already brought adding queer/trans/etc up to my bosses and tried to push for it as much as I can, but I'm just a lowly work-from-home peon. Write-in-your-own would mess with the database and make it impossible to search for any particular term (you'd have like, guess what people may have put instead of using a dropdown menu) but definitely adding some more options makes sense.

quote:

drugs: something to differentiate between "smoke weed everyday" and "do heroin everyday" since right now both want to say "frequently." The standard seems to be that people who do weed only write "---" but such an unspoken convention is hardly user friendly.

Yeah drugs is a hard one- people have suggested having weed as a separate 'non-drug' category, but I'm not sure if it's going to happen.

quote:

How would I, an internet user living on a border of two countries, restrict my matches to only one of those countries.
There's no way to completely restrict your matches to one country (or even one city). We know it's an issue, but I'm not sure if there's a fix on the tables right now. Sorry!

quote:

What's the deal with the occasional math or literature match question that pops up that I can't skip out of? Are these anti-spam measures, or are you just really interested in the average IQ of an OKCupid user?

Yep, those are staff questions to see how smart people really are. You'll notice one of the questions is "do you think you're more intelligent than the average user" and then you get a bunch of math/ SAT type quetions. The best is "Is the earth bigger than the sun?" haha

devilmouse
Mar 26, 2004

It's just like real life.


I don't want to be that guy that laments things were "better back then", but has it been a conscious decision to move the site from its more tongue-in-cheek caustic approach to a more "friendly" version? Or has it just been a natural evolution?

"Stalkers" -> "Visitors", the "less independent" award became "more attentive", and the rarest unicorn of them all, the "More/Less Radcliffy" award has entirely vanished! (On that note, I really want to know what questions lead towards being more/less Radcliffy. I tried and tried and tried to figure it out, but never got anywhere.)

Plus_Infinity
Apr 12, 2011



devilmouse posted:

I don't want to be that guy that laments things were "better back then", but has it been a conscious decision to move the site from its more tongue-in-cheek caustic approach to a more "friendly" version? Or has it just been a natural evolution?

"Stalkers" -> "Visitors", the "less independent" award became "more attentive", and the rarest unicorn of them all, the "More/Less Radcliffy" award has entirely vanished! (On that note, I really want to know what questions lead towards being more/less Radcliffy. I tried and tried and tried to figure it out, but never got anywhere.)

I have no idea. I've just been working for them for less than a year so I can't really speak to how things used to be. I can say that becoming more user-friendly is something that happens to most companies as they get bigger! Especially now we have a LOT more 50+ users than even a year ago, and ALL of them get bent out of shape about the stuff you mentioned above. It seems like the path of least resistance to just smooth things out a bit.

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009

What in God's name
is happening
right now?


aliceamadee posted:

nope, that's my buddy Christian. He's awesome!
Do you know what Christian's background is/whether he works full-time? I absolutely love the OkTrends blog, but I'll periodically have qualms with his data analysis techniques (I do very similar work as a PhD student).

edit: v Generally speaking, the "correlation proves causation" fallacy doesn't bother me so much. In a lot of cases, correlation is sufficient for the analysis to be useful. One of my favorites comes from this post: http://blog.okcupid.com/index.php/t...or-first-dates/ where asking a girl "Do you like the taste of beer?" has a strong correlation with whether she will have first date sex. Causation is not necessary, and in fact is not even germane.

Josh Lyman fucked around with this message at Apr 13, 2011 around 14:51

Chin Strap
Nov 24, 2002

I failed my TFLC Toxx, but I no longer need a double chin strap

Josh Lyman posted:

Do you know what Christian's background is/whether he works full-time? I absolutely love the OkTrends blog, but I'll periodically have qualms with his data analysis techniques (I do very similar work as a PhD student).

You mean the fact that it is one giant data mining correlation = causation masturbation?

Plus_Infinity
Apr 12, 2011



Christian has a wikipedia page if you want to read about him: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Rudder

Lakitu7
Jul 10, 2001

Watch for spinys

aliceamadee posted:

Responses
Thank you for your replies! I know most of it isn't your department, but it's nice to be heard. Admittedly, I can also see how adding 20 more options for sexual orientation and acknowledging marijuana would be a bit confusing to the growing older audience you discussed too. As a user I'm like "go back to eharmony you prudes" but that's not a good business idea for you guys obviously.

aliceamadee posted:

There's no way to completely restrict your matches to one country (or even one city). We know it's an issue, but I'm not sure if there's a fix on the tables right now. Sorry!
While it might be a pain to do this for the "looking for" settings, a good stopgap would probably be to give more options when searching: let you just type a city and match on that by name alone rather than the "25 miles from" thing. One *very easy* band-aid solution would also be to just add "1 mile" and "5 miles" etc. to the "how far from..." dropdown box. This already works but you have to manually change the url, so it'd be as easy as adding it to the dropdown and that's all. It'd still be iffy for people who live right on a border but an improvement at least.

aliceamadee posted:

Yep, those are staff questions to see how smart people really are. You'll notice one of the questions is "do you think you're more intelligent than the average user" and then you get a bunch of math/ SAT type quetions. The best is "Is the earth bigger than the sun?" haha
So, wait, are you saying that how you answer some questions directly affects what sort of questions it asks you in the future?

Josh Lyman posted:

Do you know what Christian's background is/whether he works full-time? I absolutely love the OkTrends blog, but I'll periodically have qualms with his data analysis techniques (I do very similar work as a PhD student).

edit: v Generally speaking, the "correlation proves causation" fallacy doesn't bother me so much. In a lot of cases, correlation is sufficient for the analysis to be useful. One of my favorites comes from this post: http://blog.okcupid.com/index.php/t...or-first-dates/ where asking a girl "Do you like the taste of beer?" has a strong correlation with whether she will have first date sex. Causation is not necessary, and in fact is not even germane.

Chin Strap posted:

You mean the fact that it is one giant data mining correlation = causation masturbation?

I love oktrends and recommend it to everyone, but when I link it to people with in a more statistician-type field I have to preface it with "Well I know some of the stats are iffy but it's still a great read...". While it wouldn't take care of everything, it would be a lot of improvement for very little effort if he would just add confidence intervals to his graphs / statements. While there'd still be an element of correlation/causation, this is common to any such data-mining literature, and at least we'd be able to see the relative strengths of said correlations.

Plus_Infinity
Apr 12, 2011



Lakitu7 posted:

Thank you for your replies! I know most of it isn't your department, but it's nice to be heard. Admittedly, I can also see how adding 20 more options for sexual orientation and acknowledging marijuana would be a bit confusing to the growing older audience you discussed too. As a user I'm like "go back to eharmony you prudes" but that's not a good business idea for you guys obviously.

yeah, I mean OkC isn't really intentionally trying to become the new eharmony or anything, and personally I am all for adding lots of options for things, but you'd also be surprised at the number of emails I get from FREAKED OUT DUDES just because another dude LOOKED AT HIS PROFILE ONCE.

Lakitu7 posted:

distance of users

Honestly I don't know what the programmer's reasons are for only having >25 miles but I assume they have to have one because we've definitely gotten a lot of comments about wanting to limit searches by a city/ country/ <25 miles.

Lakitu7 posted:

So, wait, are you saying that how you answer some questions directly affects what sort of questions it asks you in the future?

no no, there are just some questions that everyone gets asked and can't skip, where others are randomly generated and are skipable.

Lakitu7
Jul 10, 2001

Watch for spinys

aliceamadee posted:

yeah, I mean OkC isn't really intentionally trying to become the new eharmony or anything, and personally I am all for adding lots of options for things, but you'd also be surprised at the number of emails I get from FREAKED OUT DUDES just because another dude LOOKED AT HIS PROFILE ONCE.
Haha nice. "I AINT NO QUEER TELL ALL THE QUEERS NOT TO LOOK AT MY PROFILE FOR ME " It'd be hilarious if you could share some of those but you probably can't.

aliceamadee posted:

Honestly I don't know what the programmer's reasons are for only having >25 miles but I assume they have to have one because we've definitely gotten a lot of comments about wanting to limit searches by a city/ country/ <25 miles.
Yeah I don't know; < 25 miles works just fine if you're internet-savvy enough to know how to do it, so at least for that one I imagine their reasons must not be very good. Can't guess at the others though.

aliceamadee posted:

no no, there are just some questions that everyone gets asked and can't skip, where others are randomly generated and are skipable.
Oh, I see. I forgot about the non-skippable ones. There are so few that I only learned about them pretty recently when a friend asked me about a question and I was like "skip it if you want to" and they're like "I can't?"

Plus_Infinity
Apr 12, 2011



Lakitu7 posted:

Haha nice. "I AINT NO QUEER TELL ALL THE QUEERS NOT TO LOOK AT MY PROFILE FOR ME " It'd be hilarious if you could share some of those but you probably can't.


hah yes, exactly! Some people get OUTRAGED that they can't block all men from seeing their profile! We did actually recently institute the opposite of that, which is that gay people can block all straight people from seeing their profile (especially good for gay women who get harassed by 23082308 dudes trying to get them to have a threesome). It's been suggested that we have a "homophobe" setting which will block everyone who's not straight and of the opposite gender (it's even been suggested that it's automatically applied to anyone who thinks gay marriage is a bad idea and answers so in a question), but I don't know if it actually happen or not. I think it would be pretty sweet.

Dross
Sep 26, 2006

Every night he puts his hot dogs in the trees so the pigeons can't get them.


edit; rant not worth potential derail

Dross fucked around with this message at Apr 13, 2011 around 18:55

Rick Rickshaw
Feb 21, 2007

I am not disappointed I lost the PGA Championship. Nope, I am not.

I'd say in some cases it has nothing to do with homophobia, it's just that they simply don't want to be seen by their male peers on the site.

Plus_Infinity
Apr 12, 2011



Rick Rickshaw posted:

I'd say in some cases it has nothing to do with homophobia, it's just that they simply don't want to be seen by their male peers on the site.

The basic principle of OkCupid is that if you want to be able to view/ message anyone for free, they should be able to view/ message you as well. If you're in a bar looking to pick up chicks, you can't stop dudes from seeing you.

Rick Rickshaw
Feb 21, 2007

I am not disappointed I lost the PGA Championship. Nope, I am not.

aliceamadee posted:

The basic principle of OkCupid is that if you want to be able to view/ message anyone for free, they should be able to view/ message you as well. If you're in a bar looking to pick up chicks, you can't stop dudes from seeing you.

While true, there's not really a stigma towards going to a bar and picking up chicks. Unfortunately for online dating, there still is. It is getting eaten away at year by year, though.

But I'm not suggesting OkCupid go through the trouble of making it a feature to hide your profile from dudes.

Mausi
Apr 11, 2006



That and being able to scan other dude's profiles for sweet lines is a godsend for some people.

Demon Allie
Dec 28, 2006
Space Jellyfish

I ditched OkCupid because of the insane amount of bisexual girls listing themselves as gay to "hide from men". Does this feature now extend to bisexuals so they don't lie anymore?

Thanks for starting this thread! I think the site is really cool even if my experience wasn't.

The Rokstar
Aug 18, 2002

God I fucking love Diablo 3 gold, it even paid for this shitty title

Ohh man, I am totally going to set my orientation to bi and start viewing a bunch of straight dude profiles and see how much rage I generate.

Grifter
Jul 24, 2003

I do this technique called a suplex. You probably haven't heard of it, it's pretty obscure.

I know you go after spammers, but what is the policy for people who have pretty obviously fictional profiles? I had an OKCupid profile years ago that I wrote from the perspective a Bond type superspy (I think I listed dangling one handed from a helicopter as a hobby). It was very tongue in cheek and my most private thing was that the profile "might not be 100% accurate". I never got banned. Was that an oversight or is this a valid profile option?

Plus_Infinity
Apr 12, 2011



Demon Allie posted:

I ditched OkCupid because of the insane amount of bisexual girls listing themselves as gay to "hide from men". Does this feature now extend to bisexuals so they don't lie anymore?

Thanks for starting this thread! I think the site is really cool even if my experience wasn't.

yes, bisexual users can hide themselves from straight users if they wish.


Grifter posted:

I know you go after spammers, but what is the policy for people who have pretty obviously fictional profiles? I had an OKCupid profile years ago that I wrote from the perspective a Bond type superspy (I think I listed dangling one handed from a helicopter as a hobby). It was very tongue in cheek and my most private thing was that the profile "might not be 100% accurate". I never got banned. Was that an oversight or is this a valid profile option?

fake profiles/ more than one profile is against the Terms of Service. However, if it doesn't set off any of our triggers and no one flags it, you'll fly under the radar. If I see an obviously fake profile though, I delete it.

Mausi
Apr 11, 2006



What's the deal with the 'top half of attractive people' email? The general feel seems to be that it's randomly sent out (not that goons are an unbiased sample pool).

minya
Sep 7, 2004

SUN RA WAS HERE IN HIS ELEMENT
he invited me back for a ride


aliceamadee posted:

hah yes, exactly! Some people get OUTRAGED that they can't block all men from seeing their profile! We did actually recently institute the opposite of that, which is that gay people can block all straight people from seeing their profile (especially good for gay women who get harassed by 23082308 dudes trying to get them to have a threesome). It's been suggested that we have a "homophobe" setting which will block everyone who's not straight and of the opposite gender (it's even been suggested that it's automatically applied to anyone who thinks gay marriage is a bad idea and answers so in a question), but I don't know if it actually happen or not. I think it would be pretty sweet.

Have you read this article: http://www.theatlanticwire.com/nati...ou-dates/18034/

specifically referring to this bit:

quote:

I asked Yagan whether OkCupid might try tailoring its algorithm to surface more statistically successful racial combinations. Such a measure wasn’t out of the question, he said. “Imagine we did a lot of research, and we found that there were certain demographic or psychographic attributes that were predictors of three-ways. Hispanic men and Indian women, say,” Yagan suggested. “If we thought that drove success, we could tweak it so those matches showed up more often. Not because of a social mission, but because if it’s working, there needs to be more of it.”

And if so, how do you feel about it, especially in light of the 'homophobe' setting suggested above?

minya fucked around with this message at Apr 14, 2011 around 07:12

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007


Chin Strap posted:

You mean the fact that it is one giant data mining correlation = causation masturbation?

Well that's an appropriate avatar. As far as I can recall, every single post is a collection of descriptive statistics and graphical techniques - there isn't a single claim of causation. Hell, there isn't even a single t-test (though I would be stunned if much of it isn't significant with n often surpassing 1,000,000,000). I think his use of statistics is actually quite suitable for his goals: to show something interesting, entertaining, and most importantly, accessible to a lay public.

Plus_Infinity
Apr 12, 2011



Mausi posted:

What's the deal with the 'top half of attractive people' email? The general feel seems to be that it's randomly sent out (not that goons are an unbiased sample pool).

It has to do with your star ratings. It's definitely real but any user can still find any other user- you just have to use Match Search instead of relying on homepage matches/ quiver/ quickmatch.


minya posted:

Have you read this article: http://www.theatlanticwire.com/nati...ou-dates/18034/

specifically referring to this bit:


And if so, how do you feel about it, especially in light of the 'homophobe' setting suggested above?

I think it's interesting. However, I think there's a big difference between being able to block people of a gender you'll never be sexually interested in, and showing/ hiding people of certain ethnicities. There are definitely racists on OkC-- just like I get messages saying "WHY DID A DUDE LOOK AT ME" I also get messages from people saying "WHY AREN'T YOU ONLY SHOWING ME WHITE PEOPLE" or "WHY ARE YOU SHOWING ME SO MANY FAT PEOPLE". I think that's a big reason why the quiver/ quickmatch/ homepage doesn't take physical characteristics into account at all. If people want to search by something crazy specific, they can, otherwise it's left up to personality and general compatibility.

Chin Strap
Nov 24, 2002

I failed my TFLC Toxx, but I no longer need a double chin strap

Forever_Peace posted:

Well that's an appropriate avatar. As far as I can recall, every single post is a collection of descriptive statistics and graphical techniques - there isn't a single claim of causation. Hell, there isn't even a single t-test (though I would be stunned if much of it isn't significant with n often surpassing 1,000,000,000). I think his use of statistics is actually quite suitable for his goals: to show something interesting, entertaining, and most importantly, accessible to a lay public.

There isn't a single measure of standard error on anything he posts. "This number is bigger than this other number" doesn't help you when you don't know error bars on those numbers. And how much is looked at that is subsequently thrown away because it doesn't look like anything? I could make 1000 random plots of noise, find 5 that look like they have a sort of signal, and make a blog post about it. Doesn't mean that it is interesting or has any sort of statistical rigor.

Fnoigy
Apr 9, 2007

I'm fine. Why do you ask?


Chin Strap posted:

There isn't a single measure of standard error on anything he posts. "This number is bigger than this other number" doesn't help you when you don't know error bars on those numbers. And how much is looked at that is subsequently thrown away because it doesn't look like anything? I could make 1000 random plots of noise, find 5 that look like they have a sort of signal, and make a blog post about it. Doesn't mean that it is interesting or has any sort of statistical rigor.

I think it's because if they included all that, it wouldn't be a fun article so much as it would be something out of a scientific journal, which nobody likes to read. The guy doesn't claim perfect causation, just correlation, and he presents it all in a way that the common person can understand AND find interesting.

"Why doesn't 'Go Dogs, Go!' have data and analysis explaining the evolutionary mechanisms by which dogs had gained thumbs and the ability to drive???"

Fnoigy fucked around with this message at Apr 14, 2011 around 13:22

Dross
Sep 26, 2006

Every night he puts his hot dogs in the trees so the pigeons can't get them.


How does that system take into account the fact that many people don't use the full spectrum of ratings? For example, I don't think I've ever rated someone two stars. I use the star rating system as more of a reminder that I've seen this profile before, and of course I give all of my real life friends five stars.

Dross fucked around with this message at Apr 14, 2011 around 13:38

Pacra
Aug 5, 2004

what ho


aliceamadee posted:

The best is "Is the earth bigger than the sun?" haha

I actually prefer the one featured on the "hatethefuture" blog:

Chin Strap
Nov 24, 2002

I failed my TFLC Toxx, but I no longer need a double chin strap

Fnoigy posted:

I think it's because if they included all that, it wouldn't be a fun article so much as it would be something out of a scientific journal, which nobody likes to read. The guy doesn't claim perfect causation, just correlation, and he presents it all in a way that the common person can understand AND find interesting.

Mainly I'm annoyed because all of my non stats friends send me links to it (because I'm a statistician) and go, "isn't it so cool what they are doing with stats?!?" They see a plot with something going up and they assume that it means x causes y. I just wish there could be a bit of discussion about uncertainty on his posts. It is basically posting 50 versions of the number of pirates vs. global world temperature plot and making all these suggestive pokes about how interesting it all is.

Fnoigy
Apr 9, 2007

I'm fine. Why do you ask?


Chin Strap posted:

Mainly I'm annoyed because all of my non stats friends send me links to it (because I'm a statistician) and go, "isn't it so cool what they are doing with stats?!?" They see a plot with something going up and they assume that it means x causes y. I just wish there could be a bit of discussion about uncertainty on his posts. It is basically posting 50 versions of the number of pirates vs. global world temperature plot and making all these suggestive pokes about how interesting it all is.
I see what you're saying. I think it's more a case of people misreading than him portraying it as causality. I haven't read them in a while, but I recall him typically reminding the reader that he's just playing with data, and these things aren't causal by any real standards. Maybe he could stand to be even more overt about that fact when he writes his articles.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007


Chin Strap posted:

There isn't a single measure of standard error on anything he posts. "This number is bigger than this other number" doesn't help you when you don't know error bars on those numbers. And how much is looked at that is subsequently thrown away because it doesn't look like anything? I could make 1000 random plots of noise, find 5 that look like they have a sort of signal, and make a blog post about it. Doesn't mean that it is interesting or has any sort of statistical rigor.

Surely you're aware then that standard error estimations are pretty much a non-issue with such a large sample? It this point, EVERYTHING is statistically significant (even if he isn't doing hypothesis testing): the important consideration is whether or not the difference in means is something to care about.

For example, lets say he found that 50.1% of females and 50% of males had some sort of trait, with a standard deviation of 20 each and n of 1.5 million (or .75m per group). The difference between men and women is significant (2-tailed) to p = 0.002 (you can check it yourself). Even with crazy conservative multiple comparison corrections, all of his work is still very significant. It doesn't matter how many analyses he's done when he's finding differences of 5-10%, much less 0.1%.

But all of that is a irrelevant anyways, because he is only using descriptive statistics, not inferential statistics. He's showing people data that is likely to be "true" (in the sense that his sample actually reflects the population), interesting, and easily understandable.

Chin Strap
Nov 24, 2002

I failed my TFLC Toxx, but I no longer need a double chin strap

Forever_Peace posted:


For example, lets say he found that 50.1% of females and 50% of males had some sort of trait, with a standard deviation of 20 each and n of 1.5 million (or .75m per group). The difference between men and women is significant (2-tailed) to p = 0.002 (you can check it yourself). Even with crazy conservative multiple comparison corrections, all of his work is still very significant. It doesn't matter how many analyses he's done when he's finding differences of 5-10%, much less 0.1%.

The populations aren't uniform, there are weird sampling biases, I can go on and on and on. The freshman two sample independent normal calculation you threw up isn't at all applicable to this (or basically any) real world situation.

There are plenty of ways he could show your hypothesis to be true if it is. He doesn't. I'm fine leaving it at "here's some funny numbers" I just wish he would be more explicit that it isn't a good statistical handling.

Smegma Enigma
Mar 7, 2006

[T-2:25] Overwhelming sense of well-being and euphoria


Isn't getting a phd in stats enough that you don't also have to jerk yourself off in this thread.

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009

What in God's name
is happening
right now?


aliceamadee posted:

I think that's a big reason why the quiver/ quickmatch/ homepage doesn't take physical characteristics into account at all.
Isn't there a concern here? Let's say I reject someone in my quiver because I don't find them physically attractive, even though we're a high % match. Doesn't that mislead the matching algorithm into thinking I don't like people with that kind of personality when personality actually had little to do with the rejection?

Forever_Peace posted:

But all of that is a irrelevant anyways, because he is only using descriptive statistics, not inferential statistics. He's showing people data that is likely to be "true" (in the sense that his sample actually reflects the population), interesting, and easily understandable.
That's something I never really thought about. As far as I know, he's never run a regression.

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xie
Jul 29, 2004

If you liked it,
then you should have put a ring on it.


Hi why did they remove subjects? I was literally on the site when it happened, I refreshed my mailbox and they were gone.

At first I was annoyed. I generally send messages with subjects better than "Hey" "sup" "hi" etc. I like to think that it makes a difference. From talking to some female friends of mine however, they all say that they read almost every single message, even if the subject sucks.

That makes me think it's useless, and good riddance. Coming up with a good subject can be hard.

Thoughts/musings/reasoning? I've come around to it - but I also had a problem where a girl who I was planning on meeting for coffee this weekend lost my message without the subject. I had changed my picture in the interim, and she didn't realize it was me. Luckily she got in contact with me today (forgot we had exchanged numbers), but I think this would have been avoided with a subject.

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