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Mar 31, 2010


Baruch Obamawitz posted:

How does Turkey feel what with their recent efforts to get membership in the EU?

"Better be a force to be reckoned with in the Middle East than the latest peripheral country everybody in the EU would love to hate."

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Mar 31, 2010


Zikan posted:

The ECB buying Italian bonds would basically be setting itself up as the lender of last resort. Unlike forcing austerity and wishing for the "confidence fairy" to magically lower bond yields, the ECB acting as a lender of last resort would lower bond rates for Italy because it would be implicitly backed by France and Germany. THe problem is that this can't be done in isolation because if Spain tanks we're back to square one. And such moves would be incredibly unpopular in the domestic politics of Germany and France.

Merkel's own party has is probably going to propose and pass a "Euro Exist" plank to their party platform. This has the potential to spiral upwards into the actual EU negotiations about Euro exit procedures depending on how the CDU's coalition partners feel about it.

I haven't seen an estimate of how much inflation it would produce yet, but the Germans are so terrified of inflation (mostly because it would weaken their trade stranglehold over southern Europe) that they are the ones preventing such a move from taking place.
France is having both presidential and general elections in may 2012, so the markets (and italian bonds) will probably gently caress around a lot since negotiations between France and Germany (the countries that matter ) won't go anywhere till then, barring catastrophe.

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Mar 31, 2010


Zikan posted:

Haha so we can look forward for no solid actions being taken for 6 months unless some new crisis pops up. I'm sure nothing can go wrong with this plan!
That's only my personal opinion. But you can be sure that it's going to get harder and harder for any agreement come January, when the campaigns begin.

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Mar 31, 2010


scaevola posted:

And what industrial district in Greece could one theoretically occupy?

Lesbos

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Mar 31, 2010


Farecoal posted:

I have to ask, what would the best possible (plausible) outcome be for this whole situation?

Greece fires up its secret boosters and launches into space. The rockets are fueled by german euros.

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Mar 31, 2010


Jut posted:

S&P just downgraded...Belgium
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15898759

The US, Greece, Portugal and now Belgium... Soon it's gonna be real countries that get the S&P's medal of shame.

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Mar 31, 2010


Well, Cameron just vetoed the latest Eurozone agreement; Which means two things
  • The City > The UK (according to David)
  • The UK won't ever be part of any further EU shenanigans

And a third thing: an agreement was reached nonetheless (BBC article), 23 EU countries could be on board. Here's the fine print:
  • a cap of 0.5% of GDP on countries' annual structural deficits
  • "automatic consequences" for countries whose public deficit exceeds 3% of GDP
  • the tighter rules to be enshrined in countries' constitutions
  • European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to be accelerated and brought into force in July 2012
  • adequacy of 500bn-euro (427bn; $666bn) limit for ESM to be reassessed
  • Eurozone and other EU countries to provide up to 200bn euros to the IMF to help debt-stricken eurozone members

For a thousand years England has been trolling the continent, now it's payback time

This thread also has valuable info and opinions, perhaps.

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Mar 31, 2010


Cheesemaster200 posted:

The UK was doing what every other country in the Eurozone was doing: protecting their own interests.

France and Germany went and created a mess for their own individual gains and now it is blowing up on them. Cameron is saying he wants nothing to do with it, much in the same way that many in the US are trying to distance themselves from it.

I would assume that if they signed the new treaty they would have to conform with the terms. But then again, what could the EU do to them if they didn't?

Protecting the interests of The City != protecting the interests of the country

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Mar 31, 2010


Cheesemaster200 posted:

What benefits is the UK as a whole missing out of by not signing this treaty?

They did not only sign it, they vetoed it.

The largest "miss out" is political: the UK will have less leverage over the policies of the EU. Sure, they only care about the common free market, but this treaty pave the way for much harsher (future) laws against the City that if they had been part of it. Today the Tobin tax, tomorrow a fee for trading from London into the new EU? Who knows.

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Mar 31, 2010


KillerBean posted:

So... maybe someone more EU-oriented can answer this because I've been reading articles that don't confront this issue.

Do these proposed changes to the Treaty have to be sent to referendum and/or parliaments? I read that the Irish may have to, but I can't figure out if all 20+ will have to do the same.

Some countries might have to report to their constituents but not all of them. Those who don't have to are not likely to.

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Mar 31, 2010


Goetta posted:

I don't think the terms of this treaty matter too much because it doesn't fix anything at all with the current crisis and there simply won't be an EU, possibly fairly soon.

Already quoted twice but let me add that the EU will survive as long as there's a need for a free trade zone between European countries.

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Mar 31, 2010


I hope the tobin tax goes through everywhere and traders all kill themselves.

That is all.

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Mar 31, 2010


KillerBean posted:

if these taxes go through you'll just see the cost passed on to the investor: i.e. hedge funds with a 2-and-20 approach or funds that charge annual service fees

I don't know what any of this means vv

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Mar 31, 2010


SavageGentleman posted:

So people all over Europe are protesting in the streets against austerity measures that will damage their quality of life for decades while never being able to pacify the rating companies. All over Europe? No, a little nation in its center still resists the current of reality.

And life is not easy for the plebes of Graecia, Lusitania, Iberia and Italia.

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Mar 31, 2010


Fire Safety Doug posted:

I took his post to mean he was continuing the joke, but you Visigoths aren't known for your sense of humor...

Yep.

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Mar 31, 2010


I get the feeling that some in the US are not aware the mass protest are not a thing that only pops up when everything is at stake. Don't get me wrong, these protests everywher all the rime are really something to behold, but it's not like we dust off our protests only when there is a revolution around. We do that poo poo all the god drat time.

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Mar 31, 2010


Combat Pretzel posted:

Sarkozy pretty much confirmed that France is going through with the financial transaction tax, beginning August. I'm curious how that's going to play out, and who's going to pull out of the Paris stock exchange.

Let's just hope that those who do pull out are 1) never allowed to come back and 2) get their backs up against the wall.

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Mar 31, 2010


shots shots shots posted:

You don't necessarily need to pull out, you just need to do something like make an ADR, which is essentially a promise to redeem for a share that is traded on another market. A bank will hold onto the shares in a vault somewhere, and issue the security in a tax-free market.

Also 3) let's add to this law a very strict "spirit of the law" not "letter of the law" type of thing.

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Mar 31, 2010


Install Gentoo posted:

This statement makes no sense.

Eh?

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Mar 31, 2010


Junior G-man posted:

This I know, but I have yet to see a convincing explanation as to how this cannot be managed in the EU.

I'm interested in this as well.

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Mar 31, 2010


Turkey should just annex Greece.

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Mar 31, 2010


When all this poo poo is over someone will really to have to translate it into layman.

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Mar 31, 2010


Firing Cirrus posted:

Capitalism is a cruise ship made out of money. Much like this metaphor, the ship was ill-conceived and doomed from the start. Any time things got a bit choppy, it would become necessary to patch up the ship by taking some of the good, dry money and covering over the bad. At some point, some people on the ship discovered that you could just say that you patched up the ship using money from 'somewhere else' and things seemed fine. Unfortunately, this just accelerated the inevitable: the hull didn't hold and the ship was left with leaks coming in everywhere. The people in charge of the ship are now dismantling the life boats in order to make some buoyant first-class cabins.

I'm mailing this to Kreider and Bors, hopin' for the best!

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Mar 31, 2010


notaspy posted:

If Greece default doesn't that completely gently caress the French and German banks as they a) own the debt? and b) would have to payout the derivatives on the debt?

Some banks might get hosed, but banks in general are trying to get rid of greek debt bits by bits. Or at least that what they're saying on the radio.

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Mar 31, 2010


Two EU countries have never been at war with eact other. Even the US didn't manage that.

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Mar 31, 2010


If we get rid of Barroso I'm all for it personally.

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Mar 31, 2010


France is getting hosed up rapidly guys. This is bad.

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