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duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

Killer robot posted:

It looks like the actual bill is pretty sharply targeted. Covers specifically areas under current Secret Service protection (Generally this is going to be Presidential residences and appearances, plus when political candidates, etc. are under such protection) and under restricted access anyway, and further is filled with "knowingly" and "with intent" language for disruptive behavior, blocking access, etc. I might be missing something, but right now it looks like a mix of the usual reporting quality of RT and conspiracy sites, with a lot of links to people being upset that it will be illegal to literally throw things at candidates you dislike.

So basically they are outlawing DNC/RNC protests?

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duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

Fat Jesus posted:

Pipe Dreamer has a point. Flannery has zero qualifications in anything to do with the climate. He's paid by the federal government to go around telling us we are doomed, and every single one of his predictions has failed to come to pass, but to be fair, he's not exactly alone in that regard. For example, he claimed melting ice sheets would soon have Australian cities under water while at the same time buying himself some lovely waterside property. He's also invested a ton of cash into a geothermal company, which last I heard is not working out too well.
The government needs him to keep spreading the faith so they can justify their ridiculous carbon tax. Carbons are very evil.

Where does this meme about him being uneducated on it come from? The guy is a serious academic, and although his qualifications are not in climate science, he's pretty much *the* pre-eminant science educator (The dude wrote Future Eaters for gently caress sake) in the country and he's had tenure as the loving Professor of climate science at Macquarie University. For reference in Australia Professor doesnt mean "Teacher", it means something like super-doctor or something. Usually once you've done more than a certain amount of published post-doctoral work in the field (Like 2-3 published papers of year over 10 years or something), you might get awarded the title. Its pretty much the pinacle of your career here. Well maybe winning the nobel prize might be I guess.

So lets drop the bullshit that he's got "zero qualifications" please, he's one of the most qualified in the country. I loving hate the mis-information the stupid talking-head right wingers are spreading in this country. People are getting dumber every second that Rupert murdoch resists having a cardiac arrest and dying and going to hell.

a lovely poster posted:

What? He has a masters in Earth Science.

Professor of climate change. There isn't a higher qualification in this country!


e: Over 90 academic papers to his name. Compare and contrast with his accusor, "mathematician" Lord Monckton;- 1 undergrad degree in journalism and zero published papers.

duck monster fucked around with this message at 10:13 on Mar 14, 2012

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

smashczar posted:

That newspaper (Border Mail) is from my home town, theres a running joke in the letters section about daylight savings ruining peoples curtains and drying up rivers. There are a lot of sceptics writing in though, with such gems as 'CO2 is plant food' and so on.

Awww... way to ruin the fun, spoilsport! :mad:

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

Fat Jesus posted:

He's still NOT a climate scientist, and he's hardly Australia's leading climatologist (that's Bob Carter, an actual climate scientist). I've read The Future Eaters, fine book, he really should stick to paleontology. it's not a book about climate change in the way you're thinking, but rather how aboriginals arrival in Australia wiped out ancient mega fauna and how their 'fire stick' farming wiped out numerous plant species which caused massive loss of topsoil etc and changed much of Australia into the dry continent it is today.
I think you'll find his 'earth sciences' qualifications are in things like populations and land use. The problem with him is he's paid, by the federal government, to go about scaring the kiddies in some feeble attempt to sell a carbon tax that won't affect the climate at all but will raise much needed funds for Australia's Worst Prime Minister of All Time to piss away. And in between this he goes around giving pricey lectures and selling his newer more laughable book on global warming, sorry, climate change. Along with his already mentioned geothermal company (which got about 80 million in taxpayers money if I remember right)we can safely say Tim lacks the proper scientific rigour and objectivity as well as having too many vested interests to be taken seriously when it comes predicting the weather - something he has a seriously poor track record at.

I'm not sympathetic to this argument at all. Its not how academia works. Look, whats stamped on an undergrad often is not where a researcher ends up. My sisters undergrad and honors work revolved around ground water stuff, and now she's in the UK working on climate modelling. This is very common in the sciences. Another friend of mine's undergrad stuff was in chemistry and now he's working in surface physics. None of this should be surprising. Real world science often spans disciplines, so for instance in the case of my sis, she got involved with climate science via her research on how climate change will affect australian ground water supplies and then as happens ended up moving from looking down at the ground to up at the climate.

Professorial appointments in australia are largely based on a track record of successfully completed research and reputation in the field. Naturally with his background his research focuses around animal populations and human populations in regards to climate change. This is actual climate change research. The work has been of a quality that he's had around 90 papers published in the field. The dude is bona-fide regardless of the shrill denunciations that have come from outside the scientific community , in fact almost entirely from the same Rupert murdoch press that has been accusing Mann et al of the same thing.

And heres the crutch: He's predictions have largely been on the money. It shouldn't be surprising , they where not his predictions they are the IPCC's predictions.

Sure if you ignore the time scales he talks about then you might go "Last year Flannery predicted a future of drought, but it flooded instead this year" it might sound like he's off the mark.

But all this ignores the fact he's talking much larger time scales then "Next week", "Next year" or even "Next decade", and anyway flooding is a symptom of drought (Extended periods of dry cause the ground to become less porous so when the rain hits, it just slides the gently caress over the land rather than absorbs in. Why do you think most floods happen at the end of summer!)

And yeah he cocked up a couple of predictions about dams. poo poo happens in an evolving field.

Also I dont really care that he has a financial stake in it. Its not an interesting or relevant thing to discuss.

tl;dr keep the fox news character assasination of scientists to Newsmax or something dude.

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

DrSunshine posted:

When I graduated in 2010 from the atmospheric science program at UC Berkeley, I asked my professors -- people who worked in climate change research -- what the status of modeling positive feedbacks was. The answer they gave me was to shrug and say "Well, nobody really knows, because they're so hard to model."

Are there any atmospheric scientists in this thread who are more current on the state of the research today? Have we made any progress on modeling positive feedbacks and the sorts of rapid state transitions associated with abrupt climate change?

The fact that everyone constantly talks about tipping points and positive feedbacks but nobody seems to propose mechanisms about how they work is very worrying to me. I think "It could be within a decade, or even next year, that the climate imperceptibly, and without our being able to model or predict it, begins to transition abruptly into a new equilibrium." And this is frightening.

The mechanisms are well understood.

Heck I can tell you one right now;- CO2 heats atmosphere-> Atmosphere heats ocean-> Ocean releases CO2->Go to step 1. Theres a number of other ones too. The nut of it that CO2, Methane and other greenhouse gasses kind of catalyse (not sure the right word here, Im not a chemist) a number of reactions , many of which release CO2. CO2 then traps in heat, and it cycles like that. We appear to have confirmation that at least some sort of effect like this is currently occuring in the permafrost as well. We have no idea how bad it could get, but the worst plausible models suggest "very".

The thing with positive feedback loops, is your right they are not easy or necesarily even well modeled. But the physics lead us to think, along with what we know about how venus was formed, that CO2 feedback loops both exist, and at the absolute worst can be planet destroyingly horrifying (although I dont think any serious climate scientists are proposing a "earth turns into venus" outcome) so even though they are currently too complex to model reliably, the precautionary principle tells us we must at least account for the posibility, including the posibility that the outcome could be *dismal*.

duck monster fucked around with this message at 04:34 on Mar 30, 2012

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

yeah I'm suss on the peak coal thing.

I wish there was peak coal. But seriously, theres a tonne of that poo poo underground. And its all ripe to stuff into the atmosphere and ruin our collective poo poo.

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/9192494/Climate-scientists-are-losing-the-public-debate-on-global-warming.html

Its entirely possible that we're hosed, because the idiotic loving arkanes of the world and the think-tank spin campaigns that befuddle them are winning.

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

Benny Peiser is an illqualified crank who was discredited half a decade ago for a bullshit paper he published, and I'm really not interested anymore Arkane. We know climate change is happening. We also know its athropogenic and we know that serious consequences have already started.

That its happening is not the focus of the debate anymore, its the background premise of it. The discussion now is what to do about it.

I don't enjoy arguing about this ,just like I dont enjoy arguing with 9/11 truthers , homeophaths or creationists. Arkane, at what point are you going to acknowledge you've seemingly committed yourself to a wilfully dishonest and frankly batshit position?

e: And seriously dude. What do you mean that Hansens Ill qualified. He's been publishing in the scientific literature on the field since the 1960s, starting with his work on modeling venus's atmosphere and turning his attention to earths in the late 1970s. He's one of the most qualifed your going to find. Did he make a few bad predictions in the 1980s? Well sure, but the science has moved a long way since then. This is unlike the anthropologist your championing here who has precisely 1 publication in the field which was then roundly shredded in peer review.

duck monster fucked around with this message at 05:44 on Apr 15, 2012

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

Arkane posted:

It's quite a strange thing that many threads and many years after the fact you still try to claim that I don't believe that the climate is changing. It's almost like you don't even read my posts (I think this may be the case).

The big questions remain: how fast changes will come, how much of these changes are anthropogenic, and how we can best remedy any adverse effects that are coming our way. Your misconceptions aside, we don't have sufficient answers to any of these questions.

Yes the science has moved on from Hansen's early predictions. Quite right. I pointed out how the IPCC AR4 climate models have performed poorly to date. At the VERY LEAST, this would indicate that the models have quite a lot of work to do in order to produce predictions around which we can create sound energy policy. Unless you want us to rush into energy policies based on poor climate models.

As far as Hansen and sea level rise, he is ill-equipped because he has no background in glaciology or sea levels or, frankly, good statistical modeling.

PS: who is Benny Peiser and what relation is it to me?

You cited his boorish denialist poo poo in the article as "correct"

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

I gotta say I'm a lot more comfortable with prevention than "cure" when both are mired in the uncertainties of the inherently complex mathematical realities of climate science. Saying "Lets cut down CO2 levels" is a fairly reliable way of mitigating CO2 harm where the cause is simple and the outcome is complex. But when the shits already happening the solution is going to not be simple anymore. And thats a bit scary.

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

QuarkJets posted:

I'm still confused, why would the DOD focus on this?

Its pretty easy to understand. The department of defence ostensibly exists to safeguard US interests and global warming fucks with US interests because even the tamer predictions suggest global unrest, famine, mass movements of refugees, and so on. Thats bad for america.

Although if it where up to me, I'd make the FEMA death camps a reality and fill them with loving climate denialists.

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

Deuce posted:

This post will end up on conspiracy sites attributed to an anonymous Obama administration official.

Who said I ain't? :tinfoil:

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

eh4 posted:

This guy knows how I feel. No, I didn't watch it either.

Thats an excellent article and I encourage everyone to read it, because I honestly feel that way too. We need to stop "debate" with denialists and just start mocking them mercilessly. The longer we play along with this "debate" the more people will continue to think that there is anything left to debate about climate changes reality.

Its real. We know it. The debate needs to move to "What are we going to do about it?" and "what sacrifices are we prepared to make by either action or innaction".

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

Konstantin posted:

The issue is that there isn't scientific consensus on what the effects would be yet. If scientists could say "There is clear evidence that rising sea levels will cause these highly populated areas in these coastal cities to be uninhabitable by 2050" then there would be a lot more room to make plans about what to do, and a lot more people would take action.

But thats not what everones getting bogged down arguing about. Everyones getting bogged down arguing with fools about if its happening at all.

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/9234715/Wind-farms-can-cause-climate-change-finds-new-study.html

:negative:

No free ride, it seems...

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

gently caress You And Diebold posted:

This looks to be about what you are wanting. I think anyways. Not going to be an easy answer, there is a ton more to it than just CO2 heat retention.

Edit: though this site seems to be arguing that the sun is causing global warming, not sure how that impacts how reliable the math will be though.

Well it sort of is in a way. In that without the sun, we'd have pretty savage global cooling. ...Well that and floating through the universe as a dead rock...

e: Ok. That site is bonkers. Best not reference it.

duck monster fucked around with this message at 10:39 on May 4, 2012

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

Fatkraken posted:



Hey guys it's OK, we don't have to worry. It turns out that if a Bad Man believes in a thing then that thing is false by definition.

I will expand on this methodology to prove once and for all that the world is flat- HITLER believed the world was round!, what are you, Hitler II?

(yes the photo is real)


I still believe in Ted Kazynsky!



well.. sort of.. he's an interesting thinker at least. not so keen on the blowing dudes up bit.

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

Ian pilmer is incredibly frusturating, because he rose to fame as an absolutely viscious opponent of creationists who could utterly decimate cranks like Duan gish and the like in debates (He once dragged a high powered transformer on stage attached to jumper leads on stage and offered gish the opportunity to electrocute himself on stage to prove that god could overcome the laws of science for those with enough faith) , but he's now basically sided with the cranks.

It would seem even those with genuine scientific training and a capacity for rational skepticism can be suckered into pseudo-scientific beliefs.

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

The problem with nuclear power is more a trust issue. People where told "never again" after cheynobyl and then fukushima happens and yeah, its going to be another decade or two before people trust the industry again.

The facts hardly matter, if people believe fukushima could happen to them, and whatever the kicking and fussing about the facts are, we're talking a pretty major disaster in terms of human displacement, they will freak the gently caress out about nuclear power near them.

It might be unfortunate, but those are the facts of the scenario, and I don't think the political will exists to remedy those facts.

I might add, it certainly doesnt help here in australia that uranium mining companies are total loving cunts that are totally hell bent on loving over local aboriginal populations seemingly every time a new mine comes up for debate. What happened in Jabiluka was unforgivable in my eyes. yes I cheered when that shithole racist mine was closed down. I have no idea if the Mirrar people can ever be compensated for that. The loss of a sacred site to an aboriginal tribe is the equivilent of bulldozing mecca to a muslim. You just don't do it. Many mirarr still believe that mining the site could lead to cataclysmic consequences. They are a very spiritual people, and doing that to them was cruel.

duck monster fucked around with this message at 05:15 on May 15, 2012

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

Or we could start getting this thorium thing happening. Seems to avoid all of the risks real or imagined , and theres loving tonnes of the poo poo lying around.

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

Konstantin posted:

I just wish that environmentalists would educate themselves on nuclear power. Some blogs I read on the topic lump nuclear in with fossil fuels, or post alarmist stories of how bad nuclear is. I can just about convince people that nuclear is better than fossil fuels, but many cling to the idealistic view that we can get 100% of our energy needs from renewable resources, which is just not realistic.

I actually have a friend who's an old school nuke activist and also a PhD educated physicist. His reasons are very different to others however, and principally based on the nuclear weapons fuel cycle and the politics of nuclear power, essentially that "nuclear reactors can cause unpopular countries to get bombed or sanctioned, and thus from a rawls type perspective if we accept its bad for north korea we must logically conclude its bad for us if global governance is to be fair. Fix that political issue with a safer fuel cycle and by stopping threatening violence against non western countries that go nuclear, and the morality resolves itself".

As you can imagine he's very fond of thorium power and he's somewhat optimistic we can make fusion work, because neither of them demonstrably contribute to fuel for nukes.

Anyway, where I'm getting at, is that he's been trying desparately to educate other nuke activists on the physics behind nuclear power because he hates that people lump in things like the reactor at lucas heights, which is a research reactor thats largely designed for making fuel for radiology and other sciencey uses.

I wish I could find a copy of the book he wrote, "Nuclear physics for activists". Its pretty much a crash course in nuclear physics for folks without science/math backgrounds, designed to rebase the debate around sound science. But it was snubbed, pretty much, because it doesnt say what some of the activists want him to say, "ATOMS BAD". Instead it builds a case that theres a sane use for nuclear power and processes, but making plutonium for bombs aint one of them.

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

ungulateman posted:

Yeah, aquifer-based geothermal isn't something that can work. The much better trick is to pump seawater down there and use it instead, but that's heavily location-dependent and means you need more machinery to pump stuff with.

We aren't going to run out of heat from the center of the Earth anytime soon, so that's what I meant by it being renewable. Solar is in the same boat as a "technically not renewable but there's so drat much of it humans can't use it up within a reasonable timeframe" source of energy.

The best thing about this sort of thing is, with a bit of cleverness you can also do something about fresh water too.

Pump saline water, hyrdro that poo poo, then scoop non-saline steam, win a double prize.

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

WMain00 posted:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-18120093

So this is a bit disheartening. And by that I mean "we're doomed, aren't we?"

This is several thousand tons of ancient methane being pumped into the atmosphere due to arctic melting.

Yaaaay!

:suicide:

Ive always wondered what Venus feels like.

We're not going to go venus. We've had warming like this before, although in the very distant past and implicitely that means that this runaway thing must be limited to some extent.

This might be promising too.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-17400804

Around 10,000,000 pounds seems pretty cheap to me. The question is would it work?.

The idea of having to put the climate on life support is chilling.

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

The cloud whitening idea seems like its something that could be put to a swift stop if it started to backfire (Ie led to local temperature rises rather than reductions).

Frankly if we've already triggered the run-away, perhaps its something we need to roll the dice on.

They are talking a couple hundred thousand pounds per tower, and they suggest 100 towers could do it. Thats very cheap, and if it doesn't work , well, thats a bummer, but if it actually has the opposite effect, it seems like we just turn the things off and learn a lesson from the whole exercise.

duck monster fucked around with this message at 02:29 on May 22, 2012

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

V. Illych L. posted:

Welcome to non-mainstream politics. I get periods of severe melancholia from time to time and I've known people who have gotten honest-to-god depressions over this. My parents were radicals in their youth, they know someone who basically broke down and never recovered once their movement petered out and who is now a junkie. I remember realising what you're describing there and it was the worst day of my life.

During the forest blockades of the 90s I was involved in I saw a lot of people just went crazy after spending months up trees and stuff and the general horror of watching some of the most beautiful and endangered forest in the world getting loving massacred by the chainsaws. I can count at least 3 suicides from all that.

I honestly recomend taking breaks from activism when you find yourself in despair. Just become a regular joe for a few months, with perhaps a chilled out bohemian lifestyle or something to lose the pressure a bit, and when your feeling sharp again rip out the jetpack and go nuts again.

Its one of the reasons I refuse to completely disown the "lifestylists", to be honest sometimes just being a loving backpacker kid is far saner than drowning in the utter despair of a losing battle. Perhaps the secret is to oscilate between the two a bit to balance sanity and action.

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

Fuking yikes:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=apocalypse-soon-has-civilization-passed-the-environmental-point-of-no-return

:(

quote:

Apocalypse Soon: Has Civilization Passed the Environmental Point of No Return?

Although there is an urban legend that the world will end this year based on a misinterpretation of the Mayan calendar, some researchers think a 40-year-old computer program that predicts a collapse of socioeconomic order and massive drop in human population in this century may be on target

By Madhusree Mukerjee | May 23, 2012 | 74

Remember how Wile E. Coyote, in his obsessive pursuit of the Road Runner, would fall off a cliff? The hapless predator ran straight out off the edge, stopped in midair as only an animated character could, looked beneath him in an eye-popping moment of truth, and plummeted straight down into a puff of dust. Splat! Four decades ago, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology computer model called World3 warned of such a possible course for human civilization in the 21st century. In Limits to Growth, a bitterly disputed 1972 book that explicated these findings, researchers argued that the global industrial system has so much inertia that it cannot readily correct course in response to signals of planetary stress. But unless economic growth skidded to a halt before reaching the edge, they warned, society was headed for overshoot—and a splat that could kill billions.

Don't look now but we are running in midair, a new book asserts. In 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years (Chelsea Green Publishing), Jorgen Randers of the BI Norwegian Business School in Oslo, and one of the original World3 modelers, argues that the second half of the 21st century will bring us near apocalypse in the form of severe global warming. Dennis Meadows, professor emeritus of systems policy at the University of New Hampshire who headed the original M.I.T. team and revisited World3 in 1994 and 2004, has an even darker view. The 1970s program had yielded a variety of scenarios, in some of which humanity manages to control production and population to live within planetary limits (described as Limits to Growth). Meadows contends that the model's sustainable pathways are no longer within reach because humanity has failed to act accordingly.

Instead, the latest global data are tracking one of the most alarming scenarios, in which these variables increase steadily to reach a peak and then suddenly drop in a process called collapse. In fact, "I see collapse happening already," he says. "Food per capita is going down, energy is becoming more scarce, groundwater is being depleted." Most worrisome, Randers notes, greenhouse gases are being emitted twice as fast as oceans and forests can absorb them. Whereas in 1972 humans were using 85 percent of the regenerative capacity of the biosphere to support economic activities such as growing food, producing goods and assimilating pollutants, the figure is now at 150 percent—and growing.

Randers's ideas most closely resemble a World3 scenario in which energy efficiency and renewable energy stave off the worst effects of climate change until after 2050. For the coming few decades, Randers predicts, life on Earth will carry on more or less as before. Wealthy economies will continue to grow, albeit more slowly as investment will need to be diverted to deal with resource constraints and environmental problems, which thereby will leave less capital for creating goods for consumption. Food production will improve: increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will cause plants to grow faster, and warming will open up new areas such as Siberia to cultivation. Population will increase, albeit slowly, to a maximum of about eight billion near 2040. Eventually, however, floods and desertification will start reducing farmland and therefore the availability of grain. Despite humanity's efforts to ameliorate climate change, Randers predicts that its effects will become devastating sometime after mid-century, when global warming will reinforce itself by, for instance, igniting fires that turn forests into net emitters rather than absorbers of carbon. "Very likely, we will have war long before we get there," Randers adds grimly. He expects that mass migration from lands rendered unlivable will lead to localized armed conflicts.

Graham Turner of Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization fears that collapse could come even earlier, but due to peak oil rather than climate change. After comparing the various scenarios generated by World3 against recent data on population, industrial output and other variables, Turner and, separately, the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, conclude that the global system is closely following a business-as-usual output curve. In this model run the economy continues to grow as expected until about 2015, but then falters because nonrenewable resources such as oil become ever more expensive to extract. "Not that we're running out of any of these resources," Turner explains. "It's that as you try to get to unconventional sources such as under deep oceans, it takes a lot more energy to extract each unit of energy." To keep up oil supply, the model predicts that society will divert investment from agriculture, causing a drop in food production. In this scenario, population peaks around 2030 at between seven and eight billion and then decreases sharply, evening out at about four billion in 2100.

Meadows holds that collapse is now all but inevitable, but that its actual form will be too complex for any model to predict. "Collapse will not be driven by a single, identifiable cause simultaneously acting in all countries," he observes. "It will come through a self-reinforcing complex of issues"—including climate change, resource constraints and socioeconomic inequality. When economies slow down, Meadows explains, fewer products are created relative to demand, and "when the rich can't get more by producing real wealth they start to use their power to take from lower segments." As scarcities mount and inequality increases, revolutions and socioeconomic movements like the Arab Spring or Occupy Wall Street will become more widespread—as will their repression.

Many observers protest that such apocalyptic scenarios discount human ingenuity. Technology and markets will solve problems as they show up, they argue. But for that to happen, contends economist Partha Dasgupta of the University of Cambridge in the U.K., policymakers must guide technology with the right incentives. As long as natural resources are underpriced compared with their true environmental and social cost—as long as, for instance, automobile consumers do not pay for lives lost from extreme climatic conditions caused by warming from their vehicles' carbon emissions—technology will continue to produce resource-intensive goods and worsen the burden on the ecosystem, Dasgupta argues. "You can't expect markets to solve the problem," he says. Randers goes further, asserting that the short-term focus of capitalism and of extant democratic systems makes it impossible not only for markets but also for most governments to deal effectively with long-term problems such as climate change.

"We're in for a period of sustained chaos whose magnitude we are unable to foresee," Meadows warns. He no longer spends time trying to persuade humanity of the limits to growth. Instead, he says, "I'm trying to understand how communities and cities can buffer themselves" against the inevitable hard landing.

Graphs and poo poo on the link.

I hope he's wrong :(

Still I stand by my long held conviction that in 50 years time if we're looking across a burning and ruined world , and our kids ask us "How the gently caress did this happen?", we owe it to them to present a list of names and addresses of the climate denialists, conservative politicians and billionaires who threw a spanner into our survival attempts, such that our children might drag them from their homes in the dead of the night and hang them by the neck from bridges. It would seem the least consolation we could leave the impending generations we've betrayed.

duck monster fucked around with this message at 15:33 on May 29, 2012

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

Sylink posted:

Texas is a wasteful shithole. The amount of sprawl and generally retarded poo poo I've seen there is hilarious.

Come see perth australia for real depressing. Our soil is about 1 inch deep, half our useable farm land is already gone from salinity and climate change, and we're running out of fresh water. The major reason my climate/groundwater science sister left the state was pure depression at the inertia and resistance to change.

So will we do anything about it? gently caress no, its the most successful economy on the planet (literally), its all about dig dig build build lets get the kids SUVs. At least until the chinese stop buying steel and then we're suddenly post-collapse dubai

We're loving doomed.

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

Arkane posted:

First of all, this post is pretty drat deranged. I'm not sure if you're self-reflective about what you just typed, but you probably should be. This reads like a murder fantasy.

But I am wondering...what is going to happen in 50 years? You seem to have these visions of doom, almost as if you want them to occur just to be proved right or something.

Climate changes are FAR too slow for anything on that type of time scale to lead to some sort of apocalypse.

We kill other types of murderers, why not climate denialists?

Well Denialists and the politicians and companies that run their PR via them are potentially going to cause a death toll in the billions at some of the higher end plausible projections.

We need to stop mincing words about the game these people are in, specifically crimes against humanity.

The reality is, it has been extensively documented and proven that the climate denialism campain was concieved and has been coordinated by a group of public relations firms , previously notable for an earlier failed attempt at casting doubt on the tobacco-cancer link, and in some american cases, biology education too, and funded by a number of oil manufacturers, namely BP, Exxon and a few others, along with a network of likewise funded pseudoacademic "thinktanks" to prey on the lack of science training in the community to create the perception of a vast left wing conspiracy to somehow make scientists lie about the climate for some reason nobody has seemed to work out.

The campaign then got viscious with a campaign of defamation and harassment against a number of key researchers, including in some cases even involving death threats, vandalism, attempts to defund researchers and so on.

And whats most galling is many of these denialists know full well they are lying and thus potentially gambling with the life of present and future generations. This is unconscionably irresponsible, and in other contexts, other variants of this behavior such as drink driving and so on, would lead to severe repercussions.

So I reitterate my claim. We owe it to future generations to note the identities of those behind all this poo poo because I strongly believe what is happening is in effect a crime against humanity.

I accept some of these people are acting out of stupidity and thus a moral case might be made that stupidity isnt a crime, but many of the think tanks are acting out of malice, and frankly it needs to be stopped, by force if needs be.

quote:

Climate changes are FAR too slow for anything on that type of time scale to lead to some sort of apocalypse.
Dude, you've been wrong about almost everything you've posted in thee threads so far, and whoops, your wrong again. We are already experiencing famines in places. We are already getting changes in malaria distributions.

Nobody is talking about the bad times as some sort of near vs far future thing anymore. Shits already started.

duck monster fucked around with this message at 13:16 on May 30, 2012

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

From http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/may/30/companies-block-action-climate-change

quote:

Top US companies shelling out to block action on climate change

Analysis of 28 companies finds cases of support for thinktanks that misrepresent climate science, including Heartland Institute

Some of America's top companies are spending heavily to block action on climate change or discredit climate science, despite public commitments to sustainable and green values, a new report has found.

An analysis of 28 Standard & Poor 500 publicly traded companies by researchers from the Union of Concerned Scientists exposed a sharp disconnect in some cases between PR message and less visible activities, with companies quietly lobbying against climate policy or funding groups which work to discredit climate science.

The findings are in line with the recent expose of the Heartland Institute. Over the years, the ultra-conservative organisation devoted to discrediting climate science received funds from a long list of companies which had public commitments to sustainability.

The disconnect in this instance was especially stark in the researchers' analysis of oil giants ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil, and the electricity company DTE energy.

But even General Electric Company, which ranks climate change as a pillar of its corporate policy on its website, had supported trade groups and thinktanks that misrepresent climate science, the researchers found.

Caterpillar Inc, despite its public commitment to sustainability, also worked behind the scenes to block action on climate change. The company spent more than $16m (£10.3m) on lobbying during the study, with nearly five times as much of that spent lobbying to block climate action than on pro-environmental policies.

Other big corporate players were fairly consistent with their public image. Nike and NRG Energy Inc lobbied in support of climate change policy and supported conservation groups.

Peabody Energy Corporation, which produces coal, was ranked the most obstructionist of any of the companies. It spent more than $33m to lobby Congress against environmental measures and supporting trade groups and think tanks which spread disinformation about climate science, the researchers found.

"The thing we found most surprising in doing this research is just how all 28 companies expressed concern about climate change," said Francesca Grifo who heads the UCS scientific integrity programme. "But when we took a deeper look we found that a lot of the actions they took weren't connected to the messages."

The result of the disconnect was growing confusion about climate science, the researchers said. That made it more difficult to push for environmental protections.

The study was focused on the years 2009 and 2010, and looked at the companies' responses to moves by the Environmental Protection Agency to regulate carbon emissions and the failed attempt by Congress to pass a climate change law.

It also looked at lobbying and political contributions surrounding the 2010 referendum to overturn California's climate change regulations.

But the researchers acknowledged that they were handicapped by a lack of transparency about corporate donations and lobbying, which made it difficult to determine exactly how companies were trying to exert political influence.

"Given the inconspicuous ways in which companies can utilize supposedly independent groups to further their own agendas, the funding of industry groups is an important pathway through which corporations influence the national climate conversation without accountability," the analysis said.


If your not angry yet, your not paying attention.

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

Radd McCool posted:

If anyone is interested, a paper was published in Nature showing that climate change polarization is attributable to culture rather than scientific illiteracy. Fox News reported on it as 'scientific literacy correlates to climate change skepticism?' If this sounds interesting or you want to not get caught off guard by Fox News' lie, here you go: Article, free PDF


It's only a few pages and with two big graphs, so it's a short read.

Holy poo poo are the spazzy conservatives twisting the gently caress out of this study.

Here are some headlines, some news sites, some blogs, around the net:

"Climate Change Skeptics Score High Marks in Scientific Literacy Test"

"Higher science scores lead to less climate change concern"

"Yale Study: Global warming skepticism correlates positively with scientific literacy"

"Higher science scores equal less climate change concern"

"Told Ya So!!! Skeptics More Scientific Than Alarmists!"

"Study: Climate Change Skeptics Know More About Science Than Believers"

"Climate change skeptics have the highest degrees of science literacy and technical reasoning capacity”

and on and on and on and on :suicide:

What it *actually* says

quote:

We conducted a study to test this account and found no support for it. Members of the public with the highest degrees of science literacy and technical reasoning capacity were not the most concerned about climate change. Rather, they were the ones among whom cultural polarization was greatest.

That second sentence is a bit inconvenient for the angries. Its not saying denialists are MORE scientific, its saying that scientific literacy merely polarized the debate further. Implication being that the dunning kurger effect is not as large here as previously anticipated and lower scientific literacy folks appear to be aware that they dont have the full capacity to assess the data.

It sure as gently caress doesnt mean "only dummies believe in climate change!", it means "education isn't a defence against being wrong".

Alternative study conclusion I propose: The people might be bad at gauging scientific consensus and forming opinions at it, but the media are blatantly loving horrible at reporting science and in some cases blatantly lying.

duck monster fucked around with this message at 11:38 on May 31, 2012

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

Heres an actual thing:

http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/plugged-in/2012/05/30/nc-makes-sea-level-rise-illegal/

quote:

NC Considers Making Sea Level Rise Illegal
By Scott Huler May 30, 2012

According to North Carolina law, I am a billionaire. I have a full-time nanny for my children, I have won the Pulitzer Prize, and I get to spend the entire year taking guitar lessons from Mark Knopfler. Oh, my avatar? I haven’t got around to changing it, but by law, I now look like George Clooney. There’s also a supermodel clause, but discussing the details would be boasting.

You think I’m kidding, but listen to me: I’m from North Carolina, and that’s how we roll. We take what we want to be reality, and we just make it law. So I’m having my state senator introduce legislation writing into law all the stuff I mentioned above. This is North Carolina, state motto: “Because that’s how I WANT it to be.”

You know, of course, about our passing May 8 of Amendment One, which has now written into our constitution anti-marriage discrimination against anyone who doesn’t fit one group’s image of marriage. It’s just as ugly as it sounds – just as ugly as the last time we wrote such marriage discrimination into our constitution, in 1875, when instead of protecting us against the idea of same-sex couples marrying, it was protecting us against racial miscegenation – down to the third generation, mind you. Good times!

Okay, though. These are hard days, people are crazyish, and you just have to soldier on, right? But then it turns out that North Carolina legislators are now tossing around bills that not only protect themselves from concepts that make them uncomfortable, they’re DETERMINING HOW WE MEASURE REALITY.

In a story first discussed by the NC Coastal Federation and given more play May 29 by the News & Observer of Raleigh and its sister paper the Charlotte Observer, a group of legislators from 20 coastal NC counties whose economies will be most affected by rising seas have legislated the words “Nuh-unh!” into the NC Constitution.

Okay, cheap shot alert. Actually all they did was say science is crazy. There is virtually universal agreement among scientists that the sea will probably rise a good meter or more before the end of the century, wreaking havoc in low-lying coastal counties. So the members of the developers’ lobbying group NC-20 say the sea will rise only 8 inches, because … because … well, SHUT UP, that’s because why.

That is, the meter or so of sea level rise predicted for the NC Coastal Resources Commission by a state-appointed board of scientists is extremely inconvenient for counties along the coast. So the NC-20 types have decided that we can escape sea level rise – in North Carolina, anyhow – by making it against the law. Or making MEASURING it against the law, anyhow.

Here’s a link to the circulated Replacement House Bill 819. The key language is in section 2, paragraph e, talking about rates of sea level rise: “These rates shall only be determined using historical data, and these data shall be limited to the time period following the year 1900. Rates of seas-level rise may be extrapolated linearly. …” It goes on, but there’s the core: North Carolina legislators have decided that the way to make exponential increases in sea level rise – caused by those inconvenient feedback loops we keep hearing about from scientists – go away is to make it against the law to extrapolate exponential; we can only extrapolate along a line predicted by previous sea level rises.

Which, yes, is exactly like saying, do not predict tomorrow’s weather based on radar images of a hurricane swirling offshore, moving west towards us with 60-mph winds and ten inches of rain. Predict the weather based on the last two weeks of fair weather with gentle breezes towards the east. Don’t use radar and barometers; use the Farmer’s Almanac and what grandpa remembers.

Things like marriage rules involve changing social mores and those who feel that certain types of marriage are wrong can be understood and even forgiven. They’re certainly on the wrong side of history, but it’s a social issue where emotion understandably holds sway over things like evidence.

But while the rising sea may engender emotion, it exists in a world of fact, of measurable evidence and predictable results, where scientists using their best methods have agreed on a reasonable – and conservative – estimate of a meter or more of rising seas in the coming century. In 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change gave a hesitant estimate of up to 59 centimeters of rise —but even two years later that estimate already appeared low and scientists began to expect a rise of a meter or more.

No matter in North Carolina. We’ve got resorts to build and we don’t care what the rest of the ocean does – our sea isn’t going to rise by more than 15.6 inches. Because otherwise it’s against the law.

No information on whether the scientists on the panel, like Galileo, have stamped their feet and muttered “And yet it rises!” But there’s no doubt that NC’s legislative inquisitors will be classified along with Galileo’s papal persecutors and their own forebears who outlawed interracial marriage, as on the wrong side of history.

But these folks will also be wet.

I’d love to write more, but I have chores to do and kids to manage. Man — all this housework after a full day of work at my desk just doesn’t seem right. There oughtta be a law. Hey, wait a minute ….

tl;dr North Carolina is making a law forbidding taking climate change + sea level rises into consideration when doing urban planning, etc, because ... some reason.

quote:

Coastal N.C. counties fighting sea-level rise prediction
By Bruce Henderson

State lawmakers are considering a measure that would limit how North Carolina prepares for sea-level rise, which many scientists consider one of the surest results of climate change.

Federal authorities say the North Carolina coast is vulnerable because of its low, flat land and thin fringe of barrier islands. A state-appointed science panel has reported that a 1-meter rise in sea level is likely by 2100.

The calculation, prepared for the N.C. Coastal Resources Commission, was intended to help the state plan for rising water that could threaten 2,000 square miles. Critics say it could thwart economic development on just as large a scale.

A coastal economic development group called NC-20 attacked the report, insisting the scientific research it cited is flawed. The science panel last month confirmed its findings, recommending that they be reassessed every five years.

But NC-20, named for the 20 coastal counties, appears to be winning its campaign to undermine them.

The Coastal Resources Commission agreed to delete references to planning benchmarks – such as the 1-meter prediction – and new development standards for areas likely to be inundated.

The N.C. Division of Emergency Management, which is using a $5 million federal grant to analyze the impact of rising water, lowered its worst-case scenario prediction from 1 meter (about 39 inches) to 15 inches by 2100.

Politics and economics in play

Several local governments on the coast have passed resolutions against sea-level rise policies.

When the General Assembly convened this month, Republican legislators went further.

They circulated a bill that authorizes only the coastal commission to calculate how fast the sea is rising. It said the calculations must be based only on historic trends – leaving out the accelerated rise that climate scientists widely expect this century if warming increases and glaciers melt.

The bill, a substitute for an unrelated measure the N.C. House passed last year, has not been introduced. State legislative officials say they can’t predict how it might be changed, or when or whether it will emerge.

Longtime East Carolina University geologist Stan Riggs, a science panel member who studies the evolution of the coast, said the 1-meter estimate is squarely within the mainstream of research.

“We’re throwing this science out completely, and what’s proposed is just crazy for a state that used to be a leader in marine science,” he said of the proposed legislation. “You can’t legislate the ocean, and you can’t legislate storms.”

NC-20 Chairman Tom Thompson, economic development director in Beaufort County, said his members – many of them county managers and other economic development officials – are convinced that climate changes and sea-level rises are part of natural cycles. Climate scientists who say otherwise, he believes, are wrong.

The group’s critiques quote scientists who believe the rate of sea-level rise is actually slowing. NC-20 says the state should rely on historical trends until acceleration is detected. The computer models that predict a quickening rate could be inaccurate, it says.

“If you’re wrong and you start planning today at 39 inches, you could lose millions of dollars in development and 2,000 square miles would be condemned as a flood zone,” Thompson said. “Is it really a risk to wait five years and see?”

State planners concerned

State officials say the land below the 1-meter elevation would not be zoned as a flood zone and off-limits to development. Planners say it’s crucial to allow for rising water when designing bridges, roads, and sewer lines that will be in use for decades.

“We’re concerned about it,” said Philip Prete, an environmental planner in Wilmington, which will soon analyze the potential effects of rising water on infrastructure. “For the state to tie our hands and not let us use the information that the state science panel has come up with makes it overly restrictive.”

Other states, he said, are “certainly embracing planning.”

Maine is preparing for a rise of up to 2 meters by 2100, Delaware 1.5 meters, Louisiana 1 meter and California 1.4 meters. Southeastern Florida projects up to a 2-foot rise by 2060.

Dueling studies

NC-20 says the state should plan for 8 inches of rise by 2100, based on the historical trend in Wilmington.

The science panel based its projections on records at the northern coast town of Duck, where the rate is twice as fast, and factored in the accelerated rise expected to come later. Duck was chosen, the panel said, because of the quality of its record and site on the open ocean.

The panel cites seven studies that project global sea level will rise as much as 1 meter, or more, by 2100. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated in 2007 a rise of no more than 23 inches, but did not factor in the melting land ice that many scientists now expect.

NC-20’s science adviser, Morehead City physicist John Droz, says he consulted with 30 sea-level experts, most of them not named in his latest critique of the panel’s work. He says the 13-member panel failed to do a balanced review of scientific literature, didn’t use the best available science and made unsupported assumptions.

“I’m not saying these people are liars,” Thompson said. “I’m saying they have a passion for sea-level rise and they can’t give it up.”

John Dorman of the N.C. Division of Emergency Management, which is preparing a study of sea-level impact, said an “intense push” by the group and state legislators led to key alterations.

Instead of assuming a 1-meter, worst-case rise, he said, the study will report the impact of seas that rise only 3.9, 7.8, 11.7 and 15.6 inches by 2100. The 1-meter analysis will be available to local governments that request it.

“It’s not the product we had put the grant out for,” Dorman said, referring to the $5 million from the Federal Emergency Management Agency that’s paying for the study. Coastal communities will still find the work useful, he predicts.

The backlash on the coast centers on the question of whether sea-level rise will accelerate, said Bob Emory, chairman of the Coastal Resources Commission.

Emory, who lives in New Bern, said the commission deleted wording from its proposed sea-level rise policy that hinted at new regulations in order to find common ground. “Any remaining unnecessarily inflammatory language that’s still in there, we want to get out,” he said.

New information will be incorporated as it comes out, he said.

“There are people who disagree on the science. There are people who worry about what impact even talking about sea-level rise will have on development,” Emory said. “It’s my objective to have a policy that makes so much sense that people would have trouble picking at it.”

In written comments, the N.C. Department of Environment and Natural Resources said the legislation that circulated earlier this month appeared consistent with the coastal commission’s policy changes.

But the department warned of the “unintended impacts” of not allowing agencies other than the coastal commission to develop sea-level rise policies. The restriction could undermine the Division of Emergency Management’s study, it said, and the ability of transportation and emergency-management planners to address rising waters.

The N.C. Coastal Federation, the region’s largest environmental group, said the bill could hurt local governments in winning federal planning grants. Insurance rates could go up, it says.

Relying solely on historical trends, the group said, is like “being told to make investment decisions strictly on past performance and not being able to consider market trends and research.”

duck monster fucked around with this message at 00:25 on Jun 1, 2012

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

A friend recently finished his house and managed to wire it all up with 12 volt led lighting. At full brightness its incredibly bright inside, so he keeps it dimmed, but it still uses an absurdly low amount of power. Its pretty drat good technology.

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

McDowell posted:

That's awesome, you could run that right off a solar system.

I don't have a problem with a problem with phasing out incandescent bubls, I was just acknowledging that CFLs are made from pretty toxic stuff (but what electronics don't have some funky trace elements?)

I think thats his plan. Up northwest australia its pretty sunny country, and a lot of folks up there are already on solar because power distribution is so expensive in the north-west due to the ridiculous distances. Especially in places where houses can be up to 100kms apart on stations.

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

Torka posted:

I've often wondered how people living in areas where clean water is scarce feel about the fact that first worlders poo poo into potable water, if they're aware of it.

I mean, I'm normally pretty good at empathy but I honestly have trouble guessing what the reaction for someone in that situation would be to that knowledge. Outrage? Mirth? Despair?


You can just look at a country like australia where large sections are scarce for water AND people poo poo in fresh water toilets.

Reaction: Indifference. (And then outrage when the govt rations water for gardening)

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

http://www.2gb.com/index2.php?option=com_newsmanager&task=view&id=13006#.T80zKar-QCt.facebook

Its all lies! Its all lies! (My sister has a whole pile of these loving emails she recieved. I wish she'd let me post them, but apparently the police have said that provoking psychos isnt smart)

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

froglet posted:

Old growth forests tend to capture carbon at a slower rate than new growth forests. That's not to say old growth forests aren't important, just that significant gains could potentially be made by adding to existing forests with new stock or by establishing new forests.

Its sort of true, but is completely misleading, because you lose more CO2 to the atmosphere by pulling down an old growth forest than will ever be regained by the initial accelerated absorbtion of a new forest. So next time a logging apologist tells you logging is good for the atmosphere, punch him in the dick

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

ungulateman posted:

There are methods of contraception which don't require modern technology. Not good or reliable ones, obviously, but they do exist.

Unreliable would be understating it, as I may or may not have discovered recently:suicide:

As much as I am sympathetic on a theoretical level with primitivism, I think we have to be honest about the effects on healthcare, which would be ,roughly, abysmal.

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

Balnakio posted:

This a thousand times this.

Earth is just a planet even if we wreck it, we are talking a time frame of hundreds of years we can spread out into the solar system if the survival of our species requires it (it does).

I hate to break it to you man, but we have nowhere to go. Theres some plausible planets out there that maybe we could go to, except for the niggling problem of being hundreds of light years away. Even at the high-end of plausible, getting a generation ship out there is going to take tens of thousands of years and even then we're talking another 10-100 thousand years waiting for the magical future terraforming machine to get all the horrible methane and I dunno cyanide or whatever it is out of the atmosphere. Since the time frame for "Were hosed" is measured in 2-3 digit numbers and the time frame for mass evacuation to tatooine is in the 5-6 digit numbers, this is not an option on the table, short of a loving miserable existance for a very small number of us on space stations , I dunno, somewhere. None of this covers the various implausibilities of sustaining a civilization in space for 10,000 years with it not turning into a very insane, very stagnant and very horrifying version of the sort of rot depicted on battlestar galactica. Heck if we get nutty enough with moores law, we might even be able to create our own cylons to chase us into the abyss. Theres even a primitivist ending for us at the end!

The thing is, its a bit more plausible we just stay and scrape out a desparate existance on a nearly dead planet, pondering "who did this to us?".

duck monster fucked around with this message at 13:56 on Jun 8, 2012

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

Primitivists tend to be more about the local than the global. Guys like zerzan have more or less stated they'd be happy just to liberate Eugene, hoping that it would lead to other places liberating themselves.

The major problem with primitivism of the anarchist form, is that I'm not a fan of the post-left stance. As much as I actually really like Zerzans analyses of historical authoritarianism and alienation (although some of its loving nuts) I really don't think we CAN untangle our alienation from capitalism and class. We've built a society premised around stupid consumerist excess that drives absurd profits for the bourgoise along with a loving mess of environental problems for the rest of us. Its all well to strap on the black hipster gear, stick on a backpack and try and live communally in a squat out eugene way, but its not going to do poo poo whilst the rest of the world still thinks happiness comes in touchscreen form gouged from conflict mines in a wrecked corner of africa.

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duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

Yeah, like if the surface of earth gets hosed because of, I dunno, lava and cyanide air and pterodactyls or whatever, we could just go live in the sea. Its still dumb as poo poo, but it makes more sense than space ,energy wise.

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