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My take on the 3 books I have accounts at: Bovada: as everyone has stated, the only advantage to this site is the UI. The lines are posted at the last possible minute and this may not seem like a huge deal to beginners but it is, as any looseness in the line has been hammered out by the wiseguys. For example, a few weeks ago BetOnline (a better offshore book) posted an over of 196 for the next day’s Nuggets game. Apparently the books didn’t account for something, as that had been bet up to 204 by the time the line closed. I don’t remember what the result was, but if you wanted to bet the over at Bovada you would have had to wait until they posted their line like 2 hours before the game and any value had already been squeezed out of the number. The UI is really awesome though, it’s nice to be able to add/subtract plays from a parlay and see the odds/payout adjusted instantly instead of having to do it all over. I have requested a payout from them and it arrived in about 3 weeks, and deposited just fine. They are cool with credit cards (in my experience) but my PNC debit card wasn’t allowed. BetOnline: Really fast lines, good bonuses, normal juice, average UI. None of the line shittiness that Bovada offers, they will often have tomorrow’s lines up before today’s games are even finished. They offer more variety in teasers than Bovada if that’s your thing. Can’t think of any drawbacks, although I have not requested a payout from them yet. They accepted my bank’s debit card, Bovada rejected it. 5Dimes: Lines are as fast as BetOnline, they have an incredible amount of props compared to Bovada/BetOnline, UI is a bit shittier than BetOnline (need to click refresh to see line movements whereas it’s automatic on BetOnline) but they offer REDUCED JUICE. Getting to pay -105 instead of -110 is pretty great, although the reduced juice plays aren’t offered as fast as the normally juiced lines. Still faster than loving Bovada though. They are cool with credit cards, haven’t requested a payout yet. I posted this in the old thread and it bears repeating: Split your bankroll amongst multiple books! This allows you to shop for lines. For example, if I want to take the Warriors tonight, BetOnline has them at +4 but 5Dimes has them at +4.5, and that hook is extremely valuable. Famous sharp Stanford Wong has estimated that shopping for lines can add an extra 2% EV to your plays in the long run, and every sharp I have talked to does this. It also allows for the possibility of sports betting arbitrage, which is something for another post. Miscellaneous tips for beginners: - Teasers are a waste of money in everything but the NFL, unless you really know what you’re doing. The reason is very simple: there are more points scored in NCAAF/basketball than in the NFL yet books don’t adjust the odds for the point differential between sports. In the NFL, there are two sharps-approved teaser plays: teasing a <3 point dog to a >7 point dog, and teasing a >7 point favorite to a <3 point favorite. Always 6 points, never totals. I didn’t come up with this, it’s a known sharps rule so I can’t really explain what’s behind it in detail but the idea is you move the spread across a ton of key numbers, moreso than teasing a 8 point dog into a 14 point dog or whatever. The perfect example is from last week’s NFL conference championships, with the Giants +2.5 and Patriots -7.5. - Casual bettors love taking favorites and are hesitant on dogs, so if you like the dog in a certain matchup it may behoove you to wait as the public money moves the line in your favor. If your angle for taking the dog is well-known or if it’s a big game (playoffs, championships etc.) this may not work as the sharps money will balance the public money and may even outweigh it, causing the line to move against you. I violated this rule last night, I took the Wizards +9.5 (don’t ask) and this morning it is at +10. - I’m veering into handicapping advice here which is risky because outside of the NFL I’m bad at it but: bet on numbers, not teams. An amateur better will look at a matchup like, let’s say, the Super Bowl and ask themselves who the winner will be, and will then bet on that team. When the AFC championship line of Pats -7.5 came out, had you polled 1,000 casual betters on who they would bet on maybe 60% would have said the Pats. If the line moved to -9, chances are those 60% would still like the Pats, but every single sharp who originally had the Pats would have changed their answer. It’s all about the number. - If your main goal in betting on sports is to make money, you should read up on money management and EV. Of course you should also know how to pick winners, all the money math in the world won’t help if only 40% of your plays cash out. If you do it for entertainment, then do whatever’s fun! Two things I’m interested in learning more about are sports betting arbitrage, and the correlation between Sagarin college basketball ratings and the spread.
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| # ¿ Jan 27, 2012 16:33 |
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| # ¿ May 21, 2013 21:34 |
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5Dimes has put up 2012 win totals for a handful of NFL teams: Haven't studied the schedules much but the Panthers one jumps out obviously. 9-7 or better at even money? Ravens finishing under 11 wins is also a good one, especially with the Bengals emerging. Again, gotta look at schedules before putting my money where my mouth is. Pron on VHS fucked around with this message at Jan 27, 2012 around 17:56 |
| # ¿ Jan 27, 2012 17:53 |
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OctoberBlues posted:I always wonder about these. People already know the answers to some of these. How many people know if Madonna will wear a hat? I don't know, but you would think at least a handful. If some assistant wardrobe lackey knew what she was going to wear, what's stopping them from laying down 10K on an offshore betting site? Or a better question, would there be any chance of them being caught or prosecuted? The limits are always low for these but yeah, good point.
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| # ¿ Jan 27, 2012 18:26 |
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Put 5 bucks on Bisping since the odds are great, I don't know poo poo about MMA.
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| # ¿ Jan 29, 2012 01:44 |
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Got Ohio State ( ), UConn ( ), Providence/USF O125 today.Wanna make some NBA bets, I guess I'll tail Demented's Heat pick. Adding Toronto +4.5 as well. edit: also last night I popped my MMA/boxing-betting cherry. Even though I lost both of my picks (Maia and Bisping) it was still a shitload of fun...like a real violent, exciting coinflip. Pron on VHS fucked around with this message at Jan 29, 2012 around 20:24 |
| # ¿ Jan 29, 2012 20:12 |
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LBJ doing everything he can in the last 3 min to gently caress Heat backers.
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| # ¿ Jan 29, 2012 23:08 |
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It's been about 12 days since I've had a profitable day, I miss football guys.
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| # ¿ Jan 30, 2012 03:18 |
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Got Pittsburgh +6.5, Texas +1, Northern Arizona +3 today. edit: just put $30 (+300 @ 5Dimes) on Peyton Manning not playing in Week 1 of 2012-2013. I don't think he will come back from his neck surgery. Pron on VHS fucked around with this message at Jan 30, 2012 around 16:23 |
| # ¿ Jan 30, 2012 13:36 |
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Love the Texas pick, I'm on that as well. UT's guards match up well, and the Mizzou players are definitely looking forward to the last Border War game this Saturday 
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| # ¿ Jan 30, 2012 19:37 |
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Seems like Texas is the goon bet for the night, wish I had waited for it to move to +2.
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| # ¿ Jan 30, 2012 22:26 |
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I'd rather have the point than the slightly better odds, I think it will be an extremely close game.
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| # ¿ Jan 30, 2012 22:36 |
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NBA betting in a nutshell  The Magic scored 10% of their points in the final minute.
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| # ¿ Jan 31, 2012 02:28 |
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On the Thunder as well!
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| # ¿ Jan 31, 2012 03:18 |
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Thankful for a push in the Texas game, Rick Barnes reminds me of the coach from Waterboy.
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| # ¿ Jan 31, 2012 04:15 |
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We all say this, but tomorrow someone's gonna stroll into the thread and slap down their Grizz +1.5 and Hawks -4.5 slips.
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| # ¿ Jan 31, 2012 04:55 |
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Got a juicy little Wisconsin -9.5 & Rangers/Devils U5 parlay for tonight. I wanted Illinois but the line jumped from +3.5 to +1.5 by morning so no value left 
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| # ¿ Jan 31, 2012 17:06 |
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Would you still take them at +1.5? I was too early on Wisconsin (got it at -9.5 now -8), I think people buy too much into AP rankings and underrate them. They will suffocate and blow Penn State out tonight.
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| # ¿ Jan 31, 2012 17:09 |
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How often does an NBA team this year go on an 0-3/3-0 ATS run? Every time that happens you would lose 6-7 units, and that would greatly offset the +1 unit gains from the successful chases, right?
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| # ¿ Jan 31, 2012 17:26 |
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I'm down $600 overall, but over half of that was that idiotic KU/Iowa over bet. Coulda bought a lovesac instead
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| # ¿ Jan 31, 2012 17:35 |
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Your uncle just inspired me to be foolish: Grizzlies +1 Clemson +7 Illinois ML Wisconsin ML Wisconsin/PSU U112.5 Parlayed, 14 to win 247.61
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| # ¿ Jan 31, 2012 17:46 |
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Big 10 unders are like printing money.
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| # ¿ Feb 1, 2012 02:23 |
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Pron on VHS posted:Your uncle just inspired me to be foolish: so uhh this is all riding on the grizzlies
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| # ¿ Feb 1, 2012 03:20 |
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My hands are so disgustingly sweaty right now, pleeease cover Memphis
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| # ¿ Feb 1, 2012 03:23 |
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Memphis won't cover guys, let's accept it. Get your minds right.
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| # ¿ Feb 1, 2012 03:33 |
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HanabaL03 posted:Pron, I'm nervous for you man. When one goon wins we all win.   (pretend they have their chin on their knees)edit: YESSS please oh please
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| # ¿ Feb 1, 2012 03:47 |
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The refs have been jobbing Denver so if somehow Memphis fucks this up I won't even be able to be properly upset.
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| # ¿ Feb 1, 2012 03:50 |
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As much as it tears at my moral fabric, I'll root for KSU for tonight. It's funny how most of us aren't superstitious at all until we got a bet slip in our hand.
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| # ¿ Feb 1, 2012 03:53 |
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Thanks to the goons and their vibes, thanks to Demented for his uncle's story making me do an all-parlay day, thank you Memphis/Denver refs. Also hit a 3-teamer (10/68) tonight (Clemson +7/Illinois ML/Wisc U112). Probably my best single day of basketball betting that I can recall. edit: can't find KSU on my tv, I'll follow on ESPN
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| # ¿ Feb 1, 2012 03:56 |
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OctoberBlues what's your team of choice?
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| # ¿ Feb 1, 2012 04:10 |
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I'm 20 minutes into my nightly Ambien so if this sounds floozy I apologize, but my dog died yesterday and i think her gentle paw descended from the skies to ensure Miller's last shot in the 4th came out of the bucket. It was so in. Thanks Tori 
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| # ¿ Feb 1, 2012 04:50 |
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Got Michigan -3.5 and DePaul -2.5 for tomorrow, wish I could have grabbed them without the hooks but too slow. edit: Washington/Orlando U182.5 and Detroit/New Jersey U185 seem like the best under plays, right? Thunder +1.5 looks good too, that line will move and I could see OKC being favored by tomorrow. They play well on the road and should be pretty fired up after the LAC game. edit2: actually there is RLM going on, 74% of public is on OKC but the line is now +2, hmm... Pron on VHS fucked around with this message at Feb 1, 2012 around 05:50 |
| # ¿ Feb 1, 2012 05:21 |
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But is that due to a coaching disparity, or a terrible mismatch at certain positions, or just coincidence? Dirk shreds everyone.
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| # ¿ Feb 1, 2012 06:06 |
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You have to pay for a subscription, but many sharps swear by http://www.sportsinsights.com for all of their information. If you are pretty serious about capping you should look into that, although I have no idea how much it costs. Their twitter account @sportsinsights is amazing for extremely timely and accurate info on injuries. They will break player injury/starting info before nearly anyone.
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| # ¿ Feb 1, 2012 15:05 |
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8 of the 13 NCAAB games last night finished within a bucket from the spread 
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| # ¿ Feb 1, 2012 19:06 |
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 Heat ML Thunder +2 Michigan ML Rutgers ML Dayton ML George Mason ML Southern Miss ML DePaul ML $3 to win $133.71
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| # ¿ Feb 1, 2012 20:03 |
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Took San Diego +22 tomorrow, St. Marys is in a sandwich spot there. Might even make a very small ML play, just for the longshot appeal.
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| # ¿ Feb 2, 2012 04:43 |
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Pron on VHS posted:Took San Diego +22 tomorrow, St. Marys is in a sandwich spot there. Might even make a very small ML play, just for the longshot appeal. Adding LA Lafayette -1 and Nuggets +1. Duke is gonna get absolutely hammered tomorrow (national game, only laying 4.5 [edit: opened at -3] against a poorly percieved VT team) so if you like VT I'd wait until later in the day. Also parlaying Diaz/Koscheck for MMA this weekend 
Pron on VHS fucked around with this message at Feb 2, 2012 around 13:24 |
| # ¿ Feb 2, 2012 13:18 |
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Betting on MMA is so much fun even though it's a crapshoot. I guess it's from all the Lionheart/Rambo-esque movie scenes of a ring of people grasping fistfuls of dollars yelling at one guy to beat up another, but I get such a bigger kick out of it compared to wagering on ball sports.
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| # ¿ Feb 2, 2012 15:28 |
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I followed MMA pretty seriously up until 2007ish and Diaz is my absolute favorite fighter as well. However the last fight of his that I saw was the gogoplata on Gomi with the whole weed thing and I barely know anything about his opponent so it's a pure homer bet.
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| # ¿ Feb 2, 2012 17:08 |
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| # ¿ May 21, 2013 21:34 |
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Jumped on VT at +5.5.
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| # ¿ Feb 2, 2012 19:27 |
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