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Demented Guy posted:Strong plays like this Oregon State game will have a corresponding higher wager than the other plays.  Your ideas are intriguing to me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter
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| # ¿ Jan 30, 2012 02:05 |
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| # ¿ May 23, 2013 12:16 |
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if any of you play espn's streak for the cash, they put up the prop of the year for tomorrow:
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| # ¿ Feb 2, 2012 06:06 |
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Lockback posted:I took a beating on the SB. shoulda bet more props!  
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| # ¿ Feb 6, 2012 16:48 |
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yikes demented guy you got some bad numbers. you could get +1 +1 and +5 on the three bets you posted, right now  hockey goons i hear the leafs are the hot setup tonight
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| # ¿ Feb 6, 2012 23:26 |
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Gozinbulx posted:I'm on 5Dimes too. Seems pretty good. Anyone know how to use its in-game betting feature? Live bets go up during the commercial breaks of the bigger basketball games (anything on TNT/ESPN/NBATV or CBS/ABC on the weekends). Not much variety, usually just an adjusted line & total.
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| # ¿ Feb 10, 2012 19:59 |
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ghadeed posted:Accidentally took Portland +4 ugh it's one of those nights. accidentally eh 
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| # ¿ Feb 16, 2012 05:47 |
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ghadeed posted:Where are you seeing Washington -4.5? They are -13.5 on 5dimes. he's wondering whether or not to put them in his teaser 
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| # ¿ Feb 16, 2012 19:40 |
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Demented Guy posted:14-4 FTAs in favor of NCSU. This is getting ridiculous. If FSU wins this game, hats off to them but I'm counting this already as a loss. FSU can't possibly sustain their 3-point shooting to offset this terrible officiating. florida state has been smashing them all game, good call goons  pity about uconn though. watched the first half, it's like they didn't even want to be there.
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| # ¿ Feb 18, 2012 19:43 |
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i guess 5d has some psychics working for them, they already graded this a win at halftime   so naturally i doubled down on the 2h line
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| # ¿ Feb 19, 2012 01:05 |
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Pig Newton posted:The more I think about that heat game the more it feels like a trap. It's like the line is reflecting that the heat are going to show up and want this victory more than the knicks. Bookies are begging squares to take the heat spread imo. I don't feel good about it. lol if you think squares are backing the heat
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| # ¿ Feb 23, 2012 19:09 |
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melo cost me a clean sweep of the heat knicks game  
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| # ¿ Feb 24, 2012 03:02 |
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Spy posted:R11: 3,8,5......Shark Waves-12/1 ML......This race has the potential for some of the biggest payoffs and upsets of the night. Alot of fine horses here and I am all in on Shark Waves here. Gets no respect on the ML despite it winning at this same level and dropping back down to this level again. Does not like to be on the lead and should be coming late with the 8. Put your money on those trifecta's and exacta's here because if it hits, we will all be going to the Sizzler later on.  even if you go down in flames that writeup was worth the price of admission
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| # ¿ Feb 24, 2012 21:33 |
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jase1 posted:I took Boston -1 and the under -115.5 in the Wis-ill game in a parlay 50 to win 130. 
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| # ¿ Mar 4, 2012 20:17 |
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OctoberBlues posted:What are the moneylines usually for the 16/15 games in the tourney? I wonder what your odds would be if you parlayed all the 1/2 seeds in the first round? Would it even be close to even? (I haven't looked at odds at all in past tournaments) Depending on what the odds of that 8 team parlay would be, that would be a fun $100 to drop if you could win even like $50. Watching a 15 or 16 win would be worth $100 bucks to me I think... I'm sure we'll see some props to this effect, I could see "Will a #1 or #2 seeded team lose in the round of 64" (No) as high as -1000 or higher, or as low as -300. Any lower than that and I think I would smash it. The number 2 seed has only been beat in the first round 4 times, and the number 1 seed, never. Lots of fun stuff on the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_M...ll_Championship wikipedia page. No underdog of 20 points or more has ever won straight up. The #8 seed is 51–57 against the #9 seed (47.22%).
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| # ¿ Mar 5, 2012 07:35 |
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jase1 posted:drat I should have listened to myself and took this parlay. isn't it a teaser not a parlay 
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| # ¿ Mar 5, 2012 18:42 |
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Be sure if you are betting conference tournament outcomes you check everywhere on your book. 5d at least is dealing a -280 for Memphis to win the CUSA tournament in the Props section, but -240 in the Futures section, for example. Get the best line you can 
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| # ¿ Mar 6, 2012 15:12 |
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Gozinbulx posted:Pacers/Magic/Heat/Lakers parlay? lakers on the road against a detroit team that has shown they can occasionally jump up and bite better teams is probably your weakest link, and never underestimate better teams on paper losing at random times in the nba, but i'd feel pretty good about it.
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| # ¿ Mar 6, 2012 20:59 |
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Half a unit on Iowa +11. Official Goon Solidarity Friday Morning Pick
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| # ¿ Mar 9, 2012 09:04 |
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Ty1990 posted:I highly suggest Saint Joseph's -2 today. A10 Tournament against St.Bonaventure. Bonaventure needs wins for the tournament as well. And you're telling me that Bonaventure is a good team that holds serve on their home court, is extremely resilient even in dire late game situations, can play fatigued, can find a way to get the ball and score with their best player, and can force fouls on the opposition. This is an argument against Bonaventure...?
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| # ¿ Mar 9, 2012 17:56 |
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Ty1990 posted:I'm not gonna blast you and say you're an idiot like some other people here, but you're really taking what I'm saying out of context. SBU had a ton of luck last wednesday and barely beat SJU at a place where nobody has come close to beating them all year (save Temple). It was a TERRIBLE spot for SJU as evidenced by the 5 point line vegas set on the game, and SJU still should have won the game. I don't see SJU losing today. I may be wrong because as I mentioned, SBU is a really solid team and they can come out and beat SJU today because of that. But With the circumstances I don't see it. I took you purposefully out of context to show you that your stated reasons for picking St Joe's are shallow and are counter-weighted by motivators on the other side. St Joe's maybe should have beat them. Well, they didn't. St Joe's is playing for revenge. Bonaventure is playing with the knowledge they have already beat St Joe's after they were in a bad spot and they probably feel like they can do it again. St Joe's needs wins for an at-large berth. So did Illinois, Northwestern, Oregon, Washington, USF, Seton Hall, et al. The A10 tournament is definitely going to be one to watch.
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| # ¿ Mar 9, 2012 19:30 |
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With a cursory glace at the lines I like Xavier +2.5 vs Notre Dame and St Marys +2 vs Purdue. I feel like these lines are straight up backwards. Also like Long Beach St +4.5 vs New Mexico and New Mexico St +6.5 vs Indiana. Could easily see these being last-possession ballgames. My most  line is probably Duke -12.5 vs Lehigh. Really surprized that they are only favored by this much but it's one I'm personally gonna stay away from cause it's weird. A lot of the lines, if they move a couple points for the "name brand" power conference team against the mid-major team, will be good spots.
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| # ¿ Mar 12, 2012 06:49 |
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I guess I'm just getting super leveled in the NBA today because I'm loving Cleveland -175 (vs Toronto), Denver -215 (vs Atlanta), but especially Indiana -160 vs a very bad road team in Portland, who sustained an injury to one of their energy guys off the bench, Elliot Williams. Portland does not respond well to injuries, evidenced by when they tanked a game at home to the Wizards 124-109 after Aldridge went down in the first two minutes, but also just a couple a games ago when Kurt Thomas was out with a concussion and Camby got ejected after 18 minutes at home (not an injury but still) and the Wolves beat them 122-110. Portland only has one road victory the whole season that most would call "good" and that was a month ago at Golden State, a game the Blazers won by 2. I realize Indiana has lost 4 in a row and maybe the Blazers are due for a breakout road win, and maybe I'm getting leveled, but this is an extremely attractive price for the Pacers at home.
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| # ¿ Mar 13, 2012 16:13 |
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Demented Guy posted:Are you parlaying those? Because betting ML favorites straight up is not a viable long-term solution. And just to correct you about Portland... they did win @ OKC earlier this season but your point still stands that they're a bad road team. parlays add nothing to plays that aren't correlated; no, i won't be parlaying them. don't know why you'd say betting ml favorites is not viable. in order to bet on a favorite one must always bet against the spread? if i have teams at -175, -215, and -160, and i project them to win more than 64%, 68%, and 62% of the time respectively, these aren't good +EV bets?
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| # ¿ Mar 13, 2012 18:45 |
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HanabaL03 posted:Am I stupid for thinking the Caps have a shot at winning their 1st round series? I'm tempted to throw a unit on them in a big 7 vs 2 upset. you aint crazy homie 
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| # ¿ Apr 11, 2012 06:43 |
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HanabaL03 posted:Why is Boston getting 10.5 points tonight? Tempted to bet big on them. The Celtics will be without Pierce, K.G., Rajon Rondo (back), Ray Allen (ankle) and Mickael Pietrus (knee) on Friday. Clearly, Doc Rivers wants to get his players right for the postseason, and it will be interesting to see what kind of lineup is on the floor for Boston on Friday night. Avery Bradley will see a ton of minutes, and the Celtics will be shorthanded in Atlanta. bookmark this: http://rotoworld.com/playernews/nba/basketball/
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| # ¿ Apr 20, 2012 21:25 |
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The CWS/OAK under 6.5 is looking pretty tasty. Peavy and Colon both look good to start the season and neither offense is anything special. Also took CWS -105 since their offense seems less bad. COL +100 vs PIT, might as well fade the Pirates while it looks like they can't score runs. NYM +145 vs SF GM1, Lincecum is not looking good this year and I see this game as a toss-up so there is value on the Mets with the plus number. Same with HOU +210 vs MIL, Greinke is not looking like anything special yet so there is value if Houston wins this game above 32% of the time. I'll probably post some 3-game series bets I like later in the day too.
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| # ¿ Apr 23, 2012 15:03 |
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Re-up on COL -105 vs PIT for the same reason as yesterday. Speaking of fading bad offenses ARI +100 vs PHI; with Upton back for Arizona they're going to keep putting runs on the board, like the past couple days. Similarly CIN -105 vs SF, Cain has looked sharp in his last two starts but he was pitching against the Phillies and Pirates who are struggling to score. Let's see how he does here. I think either he or Latos gets touched up early and to wit I have CIN/SF o3.5 -125 1st 5. BOS -155 vs MIN, Boston was a -185 favorite to win the 3-game series and they seem to have the bats going again. They want to win today with Beckett than leave it to Buchholz tomorrow, who has been getting drilled, to win the series. (Doesn't a baseball team want to win every day? ) Boston wins in this spot more than 61% of the time.NYY +130 vs TEX, still not a buyer on Darvish. He's only throwing 57% of his pitches for strikes and hasn't had a game yet where Texas didn't give him at least 6 runs of support. So basically he's pitching with no pressure of a loss and not dominating like one would hope. Yankees and the plus number is good value in a game that will probably be a shootout (as evidenced by the o/u 10 runs). 2-2 +0u
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| # ¿ Apr 24, 2012 16:14 |
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A lot of toss-up games in baseball today. 16 games and only 3 opened with a favorite of -140 or more. HOU +180 vs MIL, still think there is value in a big number like this. Even the worst team in the league last year (Houston ) won 35% of their games.STL -165 vs CHC, big mover, opened at -145. The Cardinals fight off the series sweep. SEA +100 vs DET, probably wishful thinking as I am a Seattle fan but I think this is a great price for Felix Hernandez against almost any team in the league. I expect him to give up 3-4 runs so it becomes a matter of run support, but as one of the elite pitchers there's always the chance the Mariners only need to score 1 run to win. LAA/TB o7.5 -105, an attractive number for two very potent offenses on paper. 4-6 -2.3u
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| # ¿ Apr 25, 2012 17:16 |
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Bobert51 posted:Mind linking that thread? http://www.covers.com/postingforum/...9&sub=101307405 "rules" in post 14; basically some kind of weird intra-series Martingale thing based on RPI ratings. I think the foundation of their system is that the better team will not get swept in a 3-game series.
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| # ¿ Apr 26, 2012 02:51 |
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Only one game I really like today in baseball and that's BOS +105 vs CWS. It seems Humber's being really overvalued because of the perfect game. If he had just gone out and beat the Mariners 4-2 what would the price of this Boston game be? Boston's offense is not Seattle. Also on BOS o3.5 -125. Also put a little on the Marlins because I'm hearing some confidence in them on other forums. Seattle might be an attractive price too especially if it goes over +200. Looking like today is a basketball day. 16 games in the NBA on the last day of the regular season. 7-7 +0.45
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| # ¿ Apr 26, 2012 15:24 |
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Bobert51 posted:9am is too early for sharp plays, took KC -1.5 +220. nice hit bobert
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| # ¿ Apr 26, 2012 22:35 |
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Adding TOR/BAL o9 -105, I found a note on my desk that says "4/26 tor over" and I'm pretty sure I meant baseball but who knows when I wrote it? Or why?
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| # ¿ Apr 26, 2012 22:50 |
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Re-upping BOS -110 vs CWS, Boston has turned a corner and they aren't playing like they were even a week or two ago. A lot of people seem to be expecting Bard to maybe get shelled in this game but the White Sox don't have the punch to do it. TOR -190 vs SEA and TOR (3 game series) -240 look good despite the high number. Seattle may have just swept Detroit but that was due to some rock-paper-scissors weakness (Mariners have won 9 of the last 11 against the Tigers). They roll out their lesser starters for the Toronto series; Toronto will not face Felix Hernandez. A sprinkling on the Snakes and the Yanks too for good measure  9-8 +1.45u
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| # ¿ Apr 27, 2012 21:30 |
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Today is square day for me, taking WAS -115 vs LAD because  STRASBURG Going again with TOR -175 vs SEA and TEX -160 vs TB. Both were sizable favorites for the 3-game series and they won't drop the first two to lose their respective series. Also taking a hard look at the Astros +180 vs the Reds. They showed yesterday they don't really deserve to have a line like this hung on them against a team they are only 1 game behind in the standings, but I think the Reds probably ultimately win today. 10-9 +0.55u
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| # ¿ Apr 28, 2012 15:17 |
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Imagine my surprize, thinking I've got an undiscovered gem, when I look and find the Grizzlies are -200 for the series against the Clippers. Was expecting that to be opposite. Still took them with a little bit on the Nuggets for the series against the Lakers at +175. Parlayed the Heat/Bulls/Spurs/Thunder as I think those are the only legitimate title contenders this year and I'd be surprized to see any of them knocked out in the first round, pays almost 1:2 which seems pretty good to me.
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| # ¿ Apr 28, 2012 15:25 |
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ARI +160 vs MIA, the line has moved from -195/+185 at opening to -170/+160 now so I'm assuming there's some value in the team that's getting bet on. The Snakes have enough offense to put 4-5 runs on the Fish and that might just be enough to take this game and the series. I continue to be on Toronto vs Seattle due to my series bet but I have SEA u4 -120 for today. Seattle is bringing out Vargas who appears to be the M's second best pitcher this year. If Seattle is to lose, they will lose the way they have for the past couple years, lack of run support. Their pitchers don't really go out and get shelled, they just don't get any runs behind them. 4 runs can seem Herculean at times. Still like Houston at a big plus number like +185 and also Detroit at +170, definitely think you're paying a price premium to bet on Sabathia when he has shown himself to be hittable this year. More later? 12-10 +1.40u
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| # ¿ Apr 29, 2012 16:27 |
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TB -135 and TB -1.5 +165 vs SEA, even though it is Felix Hernandez on the mound we're going to see the exact same thing as yesterday, Seattle gives up 2 or 3 runs, struggles to score, bullpen allows a couple more, Mariners lose. LAD/COL u9.5 -105 Playing at Coors Field, Kemp and Ethier doin thangs, starting pitchers combined ERA near 10, seems like a recipe for the over, but we're being leveled. The Dodgers haven't scored more than 4 runs in a week and as the favored team this is gonna be a smallball game. DET -140 vs KC, a lot of people have noticed Detroit's struggles in the past week but this is the series where they get healthy. Would bet the series as well but the price is a bit extreme at -255 since the Tigers will have Verlander in the 3rd game, but there is one-game value at -140; Detroit only has to win 58% of the time. BOS (3 game series) -255 vs OAK, Oakland just isn't going to score enough runs to take two out of three in Boston. MIN +200 and MIN +260 (3 game series) vs LAA, what are the Angels doing to justify getting Texas or New York prices? The Twinkies and the Halos have virtually identical records and the Minnesota starting pitching appears to have problems, but if these lines are just guesses that the Angels will start to break out it's just as likely that the Twins start to break out. Los Angeles could end up sweeping Minnesota but there is value in Minnesota winning this game 33% of the time and two out of three 28% of the time. 15-10 +5.0u
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| # ¿ Apr 30, 2012 21:04 |
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Bearnt! posted:What a horrible weekend for me and Memphis blowing that was just the nail in the coffin. I'd feel a little nervous about the Rangers if Josh Hamilton misses any kind of time. Texas didn't look like they could score yesterday without him.
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| # ¿ Apr 30, 2012 21:09 |
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looking at tomorrow the plays would be Rangers, Mets, Dodgers.
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LAD -160 vs COL, Dodgers are trotting out their ace Kershaw and this looks like a good price. I'm a little concerned that Kershaw has started the season against historically weak teams like Washington, San Diego, and Houston so he may not have been challenged yet, but Los Angeles is 11-2 in games where they are the moneyline favorites. TB -205 vs SEA, Seattle has one of their worst starters going today in Beaven and Tampa has won 6 straight and 8 of the last 10 against Seattle. They have shown in the past two days that they can grind out wins against the Mariners when necessary and the Rays haven't even really got their offense going in the series yet. Very surprized if the M's win this one straight up, probably more surprized than I would be if the Royals beat Verlander and the Tigers today. Still on the Boston series bet but adding on with BOS -160 vs OAK, we're seeing a steep drop on Boston's odds with the Red Sox opening at -180 and falling as low as -153 at the moment, due probably to a lack of faith in Bard as the starting pitcher and the Boston offense which only scored 1 run through 8 innings yesterday. Boston was -255 to win the series against Oakland and yesterday was an aberrant offensive output from Oakland and ultimately Boston takes the game and the series. Speaking of aberrations, we're going to see more and more that Philip Humber is not that far above a replacement level pitcher if he is at all. CLE +110, CLE -1.5 +175 and CLE o3.5 -125 vs CWS all look to be good value. 17-13 +4.0u
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| # ¿ May 2, 2012 17:19 |
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| # ¿ May 23, 2013 12:16 |
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Abbreviated day of baseball today, only 8 games. SEA/TB o8 -105 is the best line today. This game is winnable for Seattle but they have to score runs. They don't win at 38% to make +165 profitable long term (they opened around +185 which would have been much more attractive) but there is a good chance Seattle takes this one. The Giants to avoid RPI system disaster and the Angels around -120 (about 3 games late here) look good today, too. 21-16 +4.7u
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| # ¿ May 3, 2012 16:16 |
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