March N/V: FLAMINGOS ARE...A GO? (Awesome starts on page 46)

The Something Awful Forums > Archives > Comedy Goldmine > March N/V: FLAMINGOS ARE...A GO? (Awesome starts on page 46)

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How exited are you now? This poll is closed.
Really excited	76	46.34%
Kind of excited	16	9.76%
Not really excited	6	3.66%
My team sucks, why bother	6	3.66%
My team sucks, this is going to rule	51	31.10%
Which teams will be good, I need to know who to root for	9	5.49%
Total:	164 votes

[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Bundy isn't the best prep righty ever or anything, but he might be the most advanced. He could hit the majors really fast if things break properly.

# ¿ Mar 1, 2012 21:29

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# ¿ Apr 19, 2024 02:14

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

ManifunkDestiny posted:

Jesus Montero just left after getting hit in the face with a foul ball

And this right here is why the Mariners are lunatics/idiots for continuing the charade.

# ¿ Mar 3, 2012 01:15

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

leokitty posted:

Mets fans like the apple probably because of Stockholm Syndrome or brain damage, not sure which.

The Apple malfunctioning on back to back homers and the fans chanting "APPLE" for twenty minutes is perhaps the only real highlight of Citi Field's existence not involving homers hit off Met pitchers.

# ¿ Mar 3, 2012 06:41

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Ike Davis has a serious lung infection that the Mets believe is caused by underlying valley fever, which is what cost Conor Jackson a season and destroyed his career. He's obviously going to be out indefinitely. (edit: or not)

You Cannot Make This poo poo Up

# ¿ Mar 4, 2012 00:55

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

An update on the valley fever: the Mets are already pushing back saying this is no big deal and Ike is still on schedule, even though the report was originally leaked to mets.com with on the record quotes.

# ¿ Mar 4, 2012 01:07

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Jeff Wiiver posted:

The general consensus here is that Braun used PEDs though, right? I mean, he still owns in my mind, but he definitely doped.

I don't think there's a general consensus. I think he absolutely was juicing, but a large minority of the rest of the league is too, and more think Braun is a moron for failing a test he knew was coming than an Evil Horrible Cheater or whatnot.

# ¿ Mar 5, 2012 01:58

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Scoobi posted:

Michael Sanserino ‏ @msanserino

Source: #Pirates and Andrew McCutchen agree on a 6-year contract worth $51.5 m with a club option for $14.75 m.

McCutch must hate money.

It's almost the same deal that Bruce and Upton signed at the exact same service time point, except that McCutchen is older and the Pirates have the big last year option. I don't think it's a particularly good or bad deal for either side.

# ¿ Mar 5, 2012 06:43

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Scoobi posted:

Its a probably a dumb deal for Upton too. McCutchen has had a 120 OPS+ every year in the leagues. If this is not an extension he has given up 3 years of free agency for 10 aav?

McCutchen doesn't have the kind of statistical profile that tends to do awesomely in arbitration, so I think the free agent years are probably more in the $12-14m AAV range, which reflects in the option price. At that level he's giving up a few million and perhaps a year or two on a guarantee, but obviously you end up giving up some discount to lock the money in as a pre-arb.

# ¿ Mar 5, 2012 07:10

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Scoobi posted:

Right, its a hedge, but like the Longoria deal I think its dumb.

The Longoria deal was "bad" because it was potentially giving up like high eight or nine figures, although for Evan Longoria the person it probably made a ton of personal economic sense. Same thing with Matt Moore. The Rays are very good at finding the spot where their interest aligns with the player's personal interest, and doesn't align with the union's.

The discount here is much lesser; this is a standard arbitration/early free agency buyout for the market rate for this level of position player.

Scoobi posted:

What does his ability to do well in arbitration have to do with his free agency? For that matter he had 20 HRs, 20 steals last year, how is he not going to do well in arbitration?

If you project him to get a lower arbitration figure, it means that the marginal money spent on buying the free agent years is higher. You can't do AAVs for controlled talent extensions just based on the AAV alone if you're trying to figure out a winner or a loser, you have to project what the guy would have gotten while still controlled. I think McCutchen would have rated to get about $15-18m total in his three arbitration years assuming good health and production, which means the "value" of those free agent years is roughly around $12m per. That's pretty close to how the Bruce and Upton contracts were structured.

McCutchen doesn't hit for a high average or knock in a lot of runs; a lot of his value is in things that get hidden in dumb arbitration proceedings like walks, defense, and doubles. He would not have projected to get the enormous Ryan Howard figures unless he explodes offensively.

# ¿ Mar 5, 2012 07:38

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Pence is a considerably crappier player in the real world but probably looks a little better for arbitration awards stupid world, assuming McCutchen doesn't start hitting cleanup or batting .310.

# ¿ Mar 5, 2012 07:50

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

will_colorado posted:

V: .174 ain't TWO DRINKS.

Well, it could be two triple shots of 151 or something.

# ¿ Mar 6, 2012 02:35

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

This looks like fun I guess...

C: Buster Posey
1B: Joey Votto
2B: Dustin Pedroia
SS: Troy Tulowitzki
3B: Evan Longoria
OF: Justin Upton
OF: Andrew McCutchen
OF: Matt Kemp
DH: Ryan Braun

Bench: Bryce Harper
Bench: Jose Bautista
Bench: Elvis Andrus
Bench: Giancarlo Stanton
Bench: Devin Mesoraco

P: Tim Lincecum
P: Felix Hernandez
P: Stephen Strasburg
P: Matt Moore
P: Clayton Kershaw
P: Adam Wainwright
P: David Price
P: Trevor Bauer
P: Dylan Bundy
P: Shelby Miller
P: Madison Bumgarner

# ¿ Mar 6, 2012 05:06

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

xie posted:

2B sucks and I'm really not a big ackley fan

Despite the age difference I think Pedroia and Cano are considerably more likely to have more years at 2B left than Ackley.

# ¿ Mar 6, 2012 06:04

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

CraigK posted:

Between Montero and Ackley, is there absolutely anybody on the Mariners you're not pessimistic about?

Well, Felix Hernandez. Taijuan Walker is pretty good as lower level pitching prospects go, I guess. The Mariners have assembled quite a strange young "core," without the upside that should be present given the number of trendy names floating around.

# ¿ Mar 6, 2012 06:45

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Danny Hultzen's not a bad prospect, he probably would have went in the high single or low double digits on talent. The problem is that the Mariners took him second overall with the notion that he was going to be a cheap sign, and then somehow got backed into giving him millions more than the guys like Bundy and Rendon that the Mariners passed on because of price tag.

# ¿ Mar 6, 2012 06:58

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

CraigK posted:

e: and yeah, I was hoping to get Rendon, but it's possible that they were scared off by the ankle injury more than money demands

As the story goes Jack Z is very big into throwing arms (which is a whole different amusing conversation) and he didn't think Rendon would stick at third because of his shoulder.

# ¿ Mar 6, 2012 07:06

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

BRB MAKIN BACON posted:

Are there any other teams that have been bad for a decade? Pirates and O's?

Also a quick google search reveals that Keith Law briefly had Hultzen as the top prospect of the 2011 draft. Everything I've ever heard of Hultzen is a drat fine prospect. Is Law a decent judge of talent?

Hultzen was never ranked as Law's top prospect. He put him first in a mock because of rumors the Pirates were looking to strike a slot deal with someone at 1.

# ¿ Mar 6, 2012 18:19

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

tadashi posted:

And, oh my God, did they ever go in the complete opposite direction. Huntington seems to know what he's doing, mostly.

Well Hultzen ended up getting more money than Cole anyway...

# ¿ Mar 6, 2012 18:23

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

I CHALLENGE THEE posted:

Typical rusty first spring start, scouts had him at 87-90 which was higher than what SNY had him at. Left the fastball up in the zone constantly and the Cardinals hitters were making hard contact off of him. He threw a handful of change ups that looked decent but not great (one at 77 looked fantastic) and he threw two sliders that were awful.

Apparently those were really awful changeups and he's still not allowed to throw breaking balls.

I thought he looked pretty crappy but it's the first game of spring.

# ¿ Mar 6, 2012 23:56

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

seiferguy posted:

@JimBowdenESPNxm
Felix Hernandez just told me his plan is to spend his entire career with the Mariners

Don't break my heart Felix

The most important question: has he built a restaurant with a statue yet?

# ¿ Mar 7, 2012 02:30

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

PECOTA's went completely into the shitter since Silver left. It takes a ton of effort to make a projection system actively worse than it was five or six years ago, but you're better off with the ridiculous Fangraphs projections or the Bill James fantasy projections where everyone gets their upside or really just throwing darts at a board. It's totally broken.

BP does a lot of great stuff, that's just not one of them anymore.

eta: It's actually kind of strange; in the 15 or so years I've been reading BP, it's went from the cutting edge statistical breakthrough site to the site that's way behind on the numbers but way ahead on quality of writers (sup Crion) and scouty prospect analysis.

# ¿ Mar 9, 2012 05:08

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

My understanding is that the basic problem with PECOTA was that it was a massive Excel spreadsheet that Silver compiled himself, and once Nate started doing other stuff and ultimately left nobody had any idea what the gently caress to do with it. They've been going backwards ever since. Which isn't a criticism per se; since then the guy has become perhaps the foremost pop culture stats guy in the entire country. The criticism is that they keep tinkering with it and every tinker makes it worse (hello Matt Wieters), when they should have either left it alone or nuked it and come up with something better.

# ¿ Mar 9, 2012 05:19

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

For some context (and I think this is limited enough on behind the wall content to not cause any problems):

Justin Upton, 2009: .300/.366/.532
Justin Upton, 2010: .273/.356/.442
Justin Upton, 2011: .289/.369/.529

Justin Upton, 2012 weighted mean PECOTA: .274/.351/.482
Justin Upton, 2012 90th percentile PECOTA: .303/.384/.532
Justin Upton, 2012 ZIPS: .283/.363/.505
Justin Upton, 2012 dumbass Fangraphs bullshit projection: .292/.370/.526
Justin Upton, 2012 Bill James: .294/.377/.533

Other projection systems are even higher on Upton, because he's an off the charts tools guy who has already shown a broad base of skills at a very young age. PECOTA thinks he's already peaked - his ten year forecast shows no year coming close to 2011 - and has absolutely no room for improvement outside of trading some doubles for more walks. This is far from the only problem with the projected outcomes, just one of the more obviously laughable ones.

# ¿ Mar 9, 2012 05:32

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

One of the more amusing cards I've found so far is Brett Lawrie, who between the Vegas adjustment and his small sample sizes everywhere they've concluded is more or less a complete fluke offensively, median projected OBP of .312 (!!!) - but a total stud defensively, like the second coming of Brooks Robinson good.

I mean, come the gently caress on.

eta: Dustin Ackley they have only slightly above replacement level! This is a dream for prospect negative nancies, I take back everything bad I said about PECOTA.

# ¿ Mar 9, 2012 05:40

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

AlleyViper posted:

I have to know now, how bearish is PECOTA on Jason Kipnis? Pineda, too.

A lot and a lot. I mean hell, it has Matt Moore being a filler swingman this year and peaking as a third/fourth starter. The only good player I've found that it actually appears to like is Mark Teixeira. Almost everyone is regressed harshly, including consistent star players, young guys, old guys, top prospects...what exactly is the point of a projection system that just takes a three year average and lops 10 or 20 percent of value off of it?

# ¿ Mar 9, 2012 05:49

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

DrGonzo90 posted:

Neither Prince or Miguel want to DH. That's basically it. Also, I think Leyland thinks they might not hit as well at DH as they would if they played the field.

I'm kind of worried that the stress of 3B (both mental and physical) will negatively affect Cabrera more than DHing theoretically would.

I'd be more worried about him being a -30 or -40 or even worse fielder than intangibles, personally.

# ¿ Mar 9, 2012 21:16

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

The initial BP projection system way back in the day was called WILTON, then the better successor was named VLAD.

# ¿ Mar 10, 2012 02:52

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

David Wright, who previously had a no big deal day to day stiffness in his side, is being flown to New York for reevaluation because it's getting worse and he's unable to deal with the pain.

Mets

# ¿ Mar 11, 2012 20:15

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Armitage posted:

It's more "Mets" that they keep the training and medical staffs. I'd like to think teams with any sort of sense would cut a bunch of guys loose if players keep getting hurt.

It's not even the getting hurt part, it's that there's continual misdiagnoses and reaggravations. Throw in all the reports about how the organization, from the top down, has the 1950s rub some dirt and suck it up mentality, and you've got a disaster.

# ¿ Mar 11, 2012 20:29

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Per Sandy Alderson, David Wright is getting an "ultrasound guided cortisone shot," after a diagnosis of being pregnant.

# ¿ Mar 11, 2012 20:53

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

CJ Nitkowski of Twitter fame has signed a NRI with the Mets, and with Tim Byrdak hurt and no other lefty of note in camp, probably has a pretty good shot at the opening day roster after many years in Korea and Japan.

# ¿ Mar 12, 2012 01:53

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

ozymandius1024 posted:

Is there any pitchface that owns harder than Karstens'? I'm thinking not.

The guy looks like a loving zombie.

R.A. Dickey obviously

# ¿ Mar 13, 2012 02:47

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

euphronius posted:

I had never heard of Jacob Turner. He looks like a stud. 2.4 bb/9 7.6 k/9 at AA-AAA at age 20 looks pretty good.

The Tigers are rushing the poo poo out of him (stop me if you've heard that before) but he's definitely in that second tier of very good/non-elite guys.

# ¿ Mar 13, 2012 23:42

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

David Wright's minor side soreness has been rediagnosed as a torn abdominal, no clue on a timetable except that they're going to try and avoid surgery.

# ¿ Mar 14, 2012 17:04

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

euphronius posted:

Dear god the Mets have the worst loving luck.

A lot of this isn't luck.

# ¿ Mar 14, 2012 17:09

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

FairGame posted:

Yikes.

Seriouspost: Is there anything in the Mets organization to be positive about? Anything at all?

Depth of good to very good pitching prospects, a few hitters like Davis and Nimmo sprinkled throughout the system that have enormous upside, Dickster.

# ¿ Mar 14, 2012 17:20

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

MassRayPer posted:

So halfway through his recovery it will be determined the treatment isn't working and he needs surgery?

Probably, at which point he'll be out 2-6 months depending on how severe.

# ¿ Mar 14, 2012 21:50

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Scoobi posted:

I really do not get why they brought Andy Pettitte back. There was already a log jam they had to clear in the rotation when they shipped AJ out, one of the starters is going to the minors or the pen anyways and then they throw in Andy into the mix. You know if Andy is good he is getting one of the spots regardless of how someone else is throwing, so what the hell, Yankees?

Because he's probably still a good pitcher? Nova and Garcia are two of the biggest massive regression candidates on the planet, Hughes may or may not ever be able to start, and the Yankees are at least feigning being concerned over Pineda for various reasons.

# ¿ Mar 18, 2012 05:59

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Scoobi posted:

They have a jam full AAA rotation full of guys that should be getting major league time this season.

Banuelos and Betances shouldn't see significant major league starting innings for at least another season, maybe longer (and maybe never since they both have significant chances to end up relieving), and Phelps, Mitchell, and Warren are the generic fifth starter/long relief depth guys that aren't really good enough to care about blocking.

# ¿ Mar 18, 2012 06:35

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# ¿ Apr 19, 2024 02:14

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Scoobi posted:

I think you're off on Phelps & Warren.

There just isn't any upside there, stuff isn't good enough for either one of them. It's not the end of the world if either one of them sees 10 starts or 50 long relief innings, but you're looking at guys that can maybe be a fourth starter if things break right. And that's just not that valuable for the team that can come up with better constantly; Cashman does have a nifty track record of turning his generic borderline prospect pitchers into actual major league players in trade, though.

# ¿ Mar 18, 2012 06:44

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