Gambling on Football: Adding to the $96 million riding on Peyton's neck

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The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium* > The Football Funhouse > Gambling on Football: Adding to the $96 million riding on Peyton's neck

Capt Murphy: Nov 16, 2005

In spite of the sanctimonious morality police trying their hardest to stop us all from blowing our hard earned (for 91.8% of Americans, and about 23% of Greeks) gold bullion on the sin that is gambling, the practice carries on. So with that in mind, lets all get rich together! Use this thread for all things betting on football. For all your other degenerate needs check out the other gambling thread (pro-tip: don't bet on baseball). Below you’re sure to find enormous amounts of bad reasoning and clouded judgment that will manifest itself as a Browns/Rams parlay we all regret two Bradford picks later. I want to believe, Sam!

I really can't make this point enough, so lets get it out there early

ONLY BET WHAT YOU ARE WILLING TO LOSE

No one should lose their car on a Tim Tebow fumble so be please be a responsible degenerate.

Per usual, talk picks, bemone bad beats, and curse the name of Coby Fleener because why were you betting on the Colts in the first place? Please keep things civil, money makes people emotional and no one needs a second kick in the nuts when they’ve just watched three bills evaporate on a muffed punt. I assure you everyone has lost in comically spectacular fashion at least once (a weekend).

If you’re new to gambling, football is a good place to start because of the limited number of games and because in general we cleaned the gently caress up last season so you’ll feel invincible like that Russian computer guy in Goldeneye (pro-tip: you'll lose it all on the NBA). Below is a little primer on the basics of gambling, and feel free to ask questions. So long as you ONLY BET WHAT YOU ARE WILLING TO LOSE gambling is for real fun and takes sports to 11.

Go forth and profit.

GAMBLING 101
Places to Wager

Bovada
The gambling site formerly known as Bodog, this site seems to be where the majority of goons with an online bankroll do their betting. If you’re new to betting, I highly recommend this site because it’s easy to use and has a low minimum.
Pros: Great UI, LiveBet is a fun way to lose money. Decent mobile site.
Cons: Pretty much everything else. Incredibly late posting lines, which end up being basically the same as Vegas anyway. Slow payouts. Can only do single bets on the mobile site. Not sure an exodus ever took place, but I don't see Bovada talked about as much.

5Dimes
Well my brief foray into 5Dimes was short lived because I found depositing money to be arduous and annoying. Some goons have reported having difficulty getting money out, but others have had good luck. It’s not a bad site and a good alternative if you don’t fancy Bovada.
Pros: Not Bovada, quick lines, solid mobile site.
Cons: Ghetto UI.
Here's another take:

EdRush posted:

they will require you to file some paperwork to cashout but it was absolutely not anything more than the major poker sites ask for. it might seem weird to ask for your drivers license and what have you, but if someone was trying to use your name fraudulently, you'd be glad for the layer of security. countless times i've requested a cashout on monday and had a check in hand on thursday. living in the u.s. and after black friday, and compared to some of the shadier sportsbooks on the internet, that's a pretty big deal. their customer service is not good and if you don't follow instructions they're gonna slow you up but that's just to get all the bases covered.

they have an A+ rating on sportsbook review and while sbr is a little dubious thanks to some pay for placement rumors, 5dimes is probably the absolute best book available to americans.

Pinnacle Sports Betting
Just kidding you can't bet here because you live in America! Still!

The Beginners Guide to Gambling: Adding Finances to your Emotional Investment

Question: Help! What are all these types of bets?
Over/Under (O/U): This is a pretty straight forward bet. Bookies pick any number of subjects: team wins for a season, passing yards by QB for a game/season, total points in a game, etc. They set a line and you wager whether the final total will be OVER or UNDER that line. For example, the O/U on season wins for the Cowboys is 9. If you think they'll win more, bet the over and vice versa. A lot of times Vegas uses halves (8.5 wins) which ensures you win or lose, but if the Cowboys were to win 9 the bet is a push and you get your money back.

Spreads: This is my favorite type of bet and the most accessible for a new punter. The spread is points Vegas is adding or subtracting to a team's final score. For example, if you see Giants +4 vs. Patriots, you aren't betting whether the Giants win or lose. You are betting that the Giants final score plus four points will beat the Patriots. (On the other hand, you can bet the Patriots -4 if you think they'll beat the Giants by more than 4 points.) Since a lot of games are pretty lopsided, this makes things much more interesting and you suddenly find yourself hoping they kick that meaningless field goal dammit!

Money Line: This is pretty straight forward. You pick which team is going to win. No +/-, nothing fancy. Hope you're right!

Parlays: With a parlay you make multiple bets, but link them together. To win you have to hit each bet, but by parlaying the bets together it seriously increases your odds. So for example you could bet: Giants +4, Ravens -5, Steelers +1, and Colts -7, and if they all hit you're in for a big pay day. But if the Colts fail to cover the spread, you lose everything. You don't have to stick to the same type of bet either. You can bet Giants +4, the over on total points for the game, and the Steelers straight up. You CAN NOT parlay bets on opposite sides of the same game.
As a personal example: I had a 3-team NBA parlay, where two under dogs mounted furious fourth quarters to... lose.. but still cover the spread! It was awesome. I do not recommend attempting parlays if you're new to betting. As has been noted below, parlays are a bit of a "sucker bet" because of how hard it is. If you feel like adding some spice to your betting go for it, but don't count on these being consistent winners. (Still fun!)

Teasers: This remains my favorite way to bet and it’s particularly suited to football. I plan on getting rich again using a healthy dose of teasers. When you tease a line, the book is giving you additional points on top of their line at a highly reduced rate. For example, a 4 pt teaser on the Wizards +6 (-110) would move it to Wizards +10 (-200 or so). The trick with teasers is putting a bunch of bets together so you compound the payout. It's like a parlay, but with a bit of breathing room. My policy was to take 4-5 lines I felt comfortable with and tease them to give me some protection against major shenanigans. A four bet, 4 point NBA teaser pays +200 or so.

Question: What are all these numbers? How much am I going to win!?

Menamino posted:

This is c/p'd from bodog for cincy:
5½ (-145)o
(+115)u

You'll always see numbers at worst at 105 or more, so that in a theoretical world where even money is placed on both sides, the house will win. This current line implies that a lot of people think cincy will win 6+, so bodog adjusts by bumping the spread on the over higher.

How the math of it works is that if I had $100 to bet and I bet the over, I'd basically divide that by the favored 145 and see that I'd stand to win about $69 if I win. So if Cincy wins 6+, I'd put down 100, get 169 back.
If I thought they were gonna win <5, or just liked the +115 line, I could put $100 down there. If I won, I'd get $215 back.

In short, the higher the (+n) the bigger the payout. Here's a good website that helps explain it.

Question: This is awesome! What else can I bet on?
Everything. Sites will post prop bets on player and team actions. For example, Bodog had a bet for "Ochocino: Yards this Season - O/U 850." It's an O/U bet but on Ochocinco's performance for the year, irregardless of the Patriots overall success. There are plenty of fun and ridiculous wagers you can place. I placed an O/U bet on "Times Archie Manning Is Shown On TV" during the Giants-Colts game in 2010. (The O/U was 2. Easy money.) Just go browse the sports section at Bovada and you'll see what I'm talking about.

Here's some great advice from Pron on VHS

Pron on VHS posted:

My take on the 3 books I have accounts at:

Bovada: as everyone has stated, the only advantage to this site is the UI. The lines are posted at the last possible minute and this may not seem like a huge deal to beginners but it is, as any looseness in the line has been hammered out by the wiseguys. For example, a few weeks ago BetOnline (a better offshore book) posted an over of 196 for the next day’s Nuggets game. Apparently the books didn’t account for something, as that had been bet up to 204 by the time the line closed. I don’t remember what the result was, but if you wanted to bet the over at Bovada you would have had to wait until they posted their line like 2 hours before the game and any value had already been squeezed out of the number. The UI is really awesome though, it’s nice to be able to add/subtract plays from a parlay and see the odds/payout adjusted instantly instead of having to do it all over. I have requested a payout from them and it arrived in about 3 weeks, and deposited just fine. They are cool with credit cards (in my experience) but my PNC debit card wasn’t allowed.

BetOnline: Really fast lines, good bonuses, normal juice, average UI. None of the line shittiness that Bovada offers, they will often have tomorrow’s lines up before today’s games are even finished. They offer more variety in teasers than Bovada if that’s your thing. Can’t think of any drawbacks, although I have not requested a payout from them yet. They accepted my bank’s debit card, Bovada rejected it.

5Dimes: Lines are as fast as BetOnline, they have an incredible amount of props compared to Bovada/BetOnline, UI is a bit shittier than BetOnline (need to click refresh to see line movements whereas it’s automatic on BetOnline) but they offer REDUCED JUICE. Getting to pay -105 instead of -110 is pretty great, although the reduced juice plays aren’t offered as fast as the normally juiced lines. Still faster than loving Bovada though. They are cool with credit cards, haven’t requested a payout yet.

I posted this in the old thread and it bears repeating: Split your bankroll amongst multiple books! This allows you to shop for lines. For example, if I want to take the Warriors tonight, BetOnline has them at +4 but 5Dimes has them at +4.5, and that hook is extremely valuable. Famous sharp Stanford Wong has estimated that shopping for lines can add an extra 2% EV to your plays in the long run, and every sharp I have talked to does this. It also allows for the possibility of sports betting arbitrage, which is something for another post.

Miscellaneous tips for beginners:
- Teasers are a waste of money in everything but the NFL, unless you really know what you’re doing. The reason is very simple: there are more points scored in NCAAF/basketball than in the NFL yet books don’t adjust the odds for the point differential between sports. In the NFL, there are two sharps-approved teaser plays: teasing a <3 point dog to a >7 point dog, and teasing a >7 point favorite to a <3 point favorite. Always 6 points, never totals. I didn’t come up with this, it’s a known sharps rule so I can’t really explain what’s behind it in detail but the idea is you move the spread across a ton of key numbers, moreso than teasing a 8 point dog into a 14 point dog or whatever. The perfect example is from last week’s NFL conference championships, with the Giants +2.5 and Patriots -7.5.

- Casual bettors love taking favorites and are hesitant on dogs, so if you like the dog in a certain matchup it may behoove you to wait as the public money moves the line in your favor. If your angle for taking the dog is well-known or if it’s a big game (playoffs, championships etc.) this may not work as the sharps money will balance the public money and may even outweigh it, causing the line to move against you. I violated this rule last night, I took the Wizards +9.5 (don’t ask) and this morning it is at +10.

- I’m veering into handicapping advice here which is risky because outside of the NFL I’m bad at it but: bet on numbers, not teams. An amateur better will look at a matchup like, let’s say, the Super Bowl and ask themselves who the winner will be, and will then bet on that team. When the AFC championship line of Pats -7.5 came out, had you polled 1,000 casual betters on who they would bet on maybe 60% would have said the Pats. If the line moved to -9, chances are those 60% would still like the Pats, but every single sharp who originally had the Pats would have changed their answer. It’s all about the number.

- If your main goal in betting on sports is to make money, you should read up on money management and EV. Of course you should also know how to pick winners, all the money math in the world won’t help if only 40% of your plays cash out. If you do it for entertainment, then do whatever’s fun!

Boom. Now you're ready to join us as we all get rich or die trying. I'll continue to update the OP with more information, and please feel free to ask questions, make comments, post additional pointers. Otherwise good luck and godspeed!

ONLY BET WHAT YOU ARE WILLING TO LOSE

Capt Murphy fucked around with this message at Jul 12, 2012 around 12:11

# ? Jul 12, 2012 01:12

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# ? May 23, 2013 03:12

Bearnt!: Feb 6, 2004; No onions, no onions

Looking forward to the season this year! I'll be posting picks throughout the year and testing out some new theories I have. I'll keep track of my record as well as I'm trying to get a little more serious with this.

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml is a nice little reference if you'd like to go back and look at NFL lines from all the way back to 2006.

Here are some tentative odds for week 1, total wins and Super Bowl winner.

code:

Week 1 NFL Lines

Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog	Total O/U
9/5 8:30 ET	At NY Giants	-3	Dallas	        47
9/9 1:00 ET	At Chicago	-10	Indianapolis	40.5
9/9 1:00 ET	Philadelphia	-8.5	At Cleveland	41.5
9/9 1:00 ET	At NY Jets	-4	Buffalo	        42.5
9/9 1:00 ET	At New Orleans	-9.5	Washington	50.5
9/9 1:00 ET	New England	-6.5	At Tennessee	48
9/9 1:00 ET	At Minnesota	-4.5	Jacksonville	38
9/9 1:00 ET	At Houston	-7	Miami	        43
9/9 1:00 ET	At Detroit	-9	St. Louis	47
9/9 1:00 ET	Atlanta	        -1	At Kansas City	41
9/9 4:25 ET	At Green Bay	-6.5	San Francisco	45
9/9 4:25 ET	Carolina	-3	At Tampa Bay	46.5
9/9 4:25 ET	At Arizona	-2	Seattle	        41
9/9 8:25 ET	At Denver	-1.5	Pittsburgh	44.5
9/10 7:00 ET	At Baltimore	-6.5	Cincinnati	41
9/10 10:15 ET	At Oakland	 PK	San Diego	48

code:

Team	                2012 Season Win Total Lines

Arizona Cardinals	6.5
Atlanta Falcons	        9
Baltimore Ravens	10
Buffalo Bills	        7.5
Carolina Panthers	7.5
Chicago Bears	        9
Cincinnati Bengals	8
Cleveland Browns	5
Dallas Cowboys	        9
Denver Broncos	        8.5
Detroit Lions	        9
Green Bay Packers	12
Houston Texans	        10
Indianapolis Colts	5
Jacksonville Jaguars	5
Kansas City Chiefs	8
Miami Dolphins	        7.5
Minnesota Vikings	6
New England Patriots	12
New Orleans Saints	9.5
New York Giants	        9
New York Jets	        9
Oakland Raiders	        7
Philadelphia Eagles	10.5
Pittsburgh Steelers	10
San Diego Chargers	9
San Francisco 49ers	10
Seattle Seahawks	7.5
St. Louis Rams	        6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6
Tennessee Titans	7.5
Washington Redskins	6.5

code:

2013 Super Bowl XLVII Futures Odds 
Money Odds (Payout Per $100 Bet.)

Arizona Cardinals	+$5,000 (50 to 1)
Atlanta Falcons	        +$2,500 (25 to 1)
Baltimore Ravens	+$1,200 (12 to 1)
Buffalo Bills	        +$4,000 (40 to 1)
Carolina Panthers	+$4,000 (40 to 1)
Chicago Bears	        +$2,400 (24 to 1)
Cincinnati Bengals	+$3,000 (30 to 1)
Cleveland Browns	+$10,000 (100 to 1)
Dallas Cowboys	        +$2,500 (25 to 1)
Denver Broncos	        +$1,200 (12 to 1)
Detroit Lions	        +$2,500 (25 to 1)
Green Bay Packers	+$500 (5 to 1)
Houston Texans	        +$1,100 (11 to 1)
Indianapolis Colts	+$10,000 (100 to 1)
Jacksonville Jaguars	+$10,000 (100 to 1)
Kansas City Chiefs	+$4,000 (40 to 1)
Miami Dolphins	        +$5,000 (50 to 1)
Minnesota Vikings	+$10,000 (100 to 1)
New England Patriots	+$500 (5 to 1)
New Orleans Saints	+$1,200 (12 to 1)
New York Giants	        +$1,300 (13 to 1)
New York Jets	        +$2,500 (25 to 1)
Oakland Raiders	        +$5,000 (50 to 1)
Philadelphia Eagles	+$800 (8 to 1)
Pittsburgh Steelers	+$1,600 (16 to 1)
San Diego Chargers	+$2,500 (25 to 1)
San Francisco 49ers	+$800 (8 to 1)
Seattle Seahawks	+$6,000 (60 to 1)
St. Louis Rams	        +$8,000 (80 to 1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	+$10,000 (100 to 1)
Tennessee Titans	+$5,000 (50 to 1)
Washington Redskins	+$8,000 (80 to 1)

# ? Jul 12, 2012 02:21

swickles: Aug 21, 2006; Scoring? No, sir, I trust my opponents to be men of upstanding moral character.

I do most of my sports betting through friends and family in another country. I just ask them to go to the casino on their way home and place a bet or two. Some general advice that has worked out well for me:

1.) ONLY BET WHAT YOU ARE WILLING TO LOSE (needs repeating, can't be repeated enough)
2.) Never bet on a team you are a fan of. As much as you like to think you aren't biased, that you can be objective, its bullshit. If you have their jersey, go to their games, or are happy when they win, its a bad idea to bet on them. Your judgement is clouded by fandom. Things will be much better if you just avoid it all together.
3.) Bet on multiple teams. Betting on a single team gives you essentially a 50/50 shot of winning. Betting on 5 or 6 games might be better for you. I noticed when I was betting on a single game a week, I would lose money over the course of the season. however, if I placed smaller bets on multiple games, over the length of the season I did a lot better. Betting on more games (intelligently) reduces the chances of you losing due to randomness or Ed Guns Hochuli blowing a call. You won't win every game every week, but if you do it right, you should end up with a net positive.
4.) Don't get greedy. The house always wins, and that is why. This relates to #1 as well. When I win and am up, I like to take out my initial investment, that way I am playing with "house money", and losing all that results in being even.
5.) You are paying for entertainment. You are not making a living. Gambling for the sole purpose of making money is the fastest way to end up in debt and having a bad outcome. View this as fun, not as a job.

# ? Jul 12, 2012 03:13

Blackula69: Apr 1, 2007

swickles posted:

4.) Don't get greedy. The house always wins, and that is why. This relates to #1 as well. When I win and am up, I like to take out my initial investment, that way I am playing with "house money", and losing all that results in being even.

One shoulder: "You know Blackula, you made $800 on a ridiculously lucky 4-game parlay last week. Maybe you should take out half and bet the rest?"
Other shoulder: "No way, the Saints just won a game by 55 points. No way they'll drop a game to a loser team like the Rams!"

The next week: "I'll just bet on the Ravens to beat that hapless Jaguars team on MNF with the dregs of my winnings. No way that's an upset."

God I love betting on football but jesus christ is it a pain.

# ? Jul 12, 2012 03:31

compton ass terry: Nov 20, 2006; Do you know where I'm from?

N'th to what everyone has said about don't bet what you don't have.

Another big thing is

money management

Just because you deposited $100 doesn't mean you need to use it all at once. It is typical to see people break it up into what's called units. It's kind of arbitrary, each person sets their own units. For example, last season, my units were equal to $5. This meant that each of my bet's were 5% of my deposit. So if I said I was placing 1u on the Packers moneyline it means I'm placing 5% of my deposit (or $5) on the Packers. Note -It is common for people to change their unit amount if they are doing very well or very poorly on the season. It is also common to set low units, that way it standardizes the bet you make if you aren't super confident, but still want action in it.

These guys have some pretty neat tracker sheets that I've been checking out for this football season (as I am terrible at the NBA and MLB) http://www.aussportsbetting.com/too...xcel-worksheet/

As a bovada user, they only keep your bet history for 14 days, I want to better track my bets throughout the season so I will be keeping up with one of these.

I only got into sportsbetting last year because of this forum, so I'd love to give back as best I can. Everyone here is helpful, so if any new guys have questions just ask.

# ? Jul 12, 2012 04:12

HanabaL03: Nov 12, 2003; We're spread, we're spread, we're spreading our.... wings!

I really like the Bears this year as a "sleeper" team to win the NFC North and make a run in the playoffs. I'm a diehard 49ers fan and won most of my NFL money on them and the Saints last season. A unit for me is $22, there was a point where I was betting $220 on the Saints and winning easy...then the NBA happened.

Anyways for this season I really want to limit my self to one straight bet per weekend and one parlay. The problem though is that there is football on every Thursday-Monday, and who can pass up on the MAC Wednesday night games? So what I'm trying to say is I'm probably going to be betting 5 days a week. Haha.

My 2 cents for beginners, start out by betting $5 on games and see how much more you enjoy it. If you don't get an added excitement to the game then betting probably isn't for you. Also for the love of god, don't bet your rent money. I usually set aside money from each paycheck to last me two weeks. If I lose it early then I regret making a stupid bet and wait until I get paid again. Sure I get mad when I lose, but I don't put bills or food in jeopardy because I put too much money on the over in a SEC game.

I live in Vegas, so I am fortunate to not have to risk bovada or 5dimes. I get paid instantly when I win. If any of you come out to Vegas for a weekend during the season let me know. I'd love to meet up at a sportsbook and get hammered while we bet on football all day. Finally, ask anyone here, we don't remember most wins, but we absolutely remember all our bad beats. We don't always bet the same way in here, don't gloat your wins and don't rub in a bad beat.

HanabaL03 fucked around with this message at Jul 12, 2012 around 04:49

# ? Jul 12, 2012 04:42

compton ass terry: Nov 20, 2006; Do you know where I'm from?

Since I'm pretty new I do remember my best wins and losses.

Best wins- Took USC -6 at halftime as they were just destroying UCLA for the last game of their season. Since they were bowl ineligible, they just let UCLA have it (50-0). I threw all my bankroll and added more to my account for this bet (NEVER DO THIS)

Best win #2- Took OKstate -3 vs OU at halfime. State was playing to try and get into the National championship, plus it was a rivalry game. Went pretty large on it, watched the 2nd half during my friend's 21st birthday crawl.

Worst- Houston -14 vs Southern Miss. If Houston would have won, they would have gotten an BCS bowl, but instead, they poo poo the bed.

# ? Jul 12, 2012 05:03

swickles: Aug 21, 2006; Scoring? No, sir, I trust my opponents to be men of upstanding moral character.

Betting on college is a bit tougher because of the ridiculous spreads. In the NFL, you are hard pressed to find more than a TD spread. In college, a 35 point spread is almost nothing.

# ? Jul 12, 2012 05:21

Tae: Oct 24, 2010; Hello? Can you hear me? ...Perhaps if I shout? AAAAAAAAAH!

Best wins: The Tebow winning streak, especially against the Jets. Also, betting on the Colts to cover the spread in the last third of the games.

Worst wins: Nothing as bad as betting in the NBA. gently caress's sake.

# ? Jul 12, 2012 05:30

Capt Murphy: Nov 16, 2005

HanabaL03 posted:

A unit for me is $22, there was a point where I was betting $220 on the Saints and winning easy...then the NBA happened.

Anyways for this season I really want to limit my self to one straight bet per weekend and one parlay. The problem though is that there is football on every Thursday-Monday, and who can pass up on the MAC Wednesday night games? So what I'm trying to say is I'm probably going to be betting 5 days a week. Haha.

This is pure fantasy and you know it. You're going to have 3-5 bets riding on every weekend, but it's totally cool because we're gonna own that poo poo.

Random question: why an arbitrary number like $22 for your units?

Knee-jerk homer advice: I like the Texans at 11-1 to win the Super Bowl if you're looking for value. We're going to be quite good this year (dare to dream, Murphy!). However, I'm not sure about the O/U of 10. I think OVER may be the play just because 10 gets you a push and I think we'll do that at the very least.

# ? Jul 12, 2012 14:17

Ozu: Aug 15, 2005; Thich Quang Duc ain't got nothing on the J-E-T-S.

compton rear end terry posted:

N'th to what everyone has said about don't bet what you don't have.

Another big thing is money management

Just to add, in order to withstand normal variance, a unit should generally be between 1-2% of your betting roll. That isn't to say, your online roll but just whatever you're willing to gamble with.

My units are usually $25 and at most I keep a few hundred in Bovada since it's much easier to deposit if you run bad than to cash out if you've run it up. Also, there's always a non-zero chance your funds could be seized, ala Full Tilt

# ? Jul 12, 2012 14:59

Wario In Real Life: Nov 9, 2009

Reminder that books are slow or sometimes hesitant to pick up on certain trends.

I made close to 2k last year by betting the over in almost every single Saints game. The line kept hovering around 45 even though week in and week out it actually hit at 60-70.

# ? Jul 12, 2012 16:50

EdRush: Dec 13, 2005; What is all of this madness happening with our solar system

Wario In Real Life posted:

Reminder that books are slow or sometimes hesitant to pick up on certain trends.

I made close to 2k last year by betting the over in almost every single Saints game. The line kept hovering around 45 even though week in and week out it actually hit at 60-70.

if you were flipping coins it isn't very unlikely that it would come 9 heads 7 tails in 16 flips (saints o/u for the regular season last year) or to flip 5 heads in a row (they went over in the last 5 games including playoffs) http://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wiz...bability/coins/

# ? Jul 12, 2012 18:29

compton ass terry: Nov 20, 2006; Do you know where I'm from?

swickles posted:

Betting on college is a bit tougher because of the ridiculous spreads. In the NFL, you are hard pressed to find more than a TD spread. In college, a 35 point spread is almost nothing.

That's actually one of the reasons why I prefer college. In the NFL, 90% of the teams could win on any given Sunday. In college, it seems that that the better team USUALLY wins, but now always. Additionally, once you get a feel for the coaches of each team, you can start deciding if you think they're gonna run up the score of not.

Trends in college football can be good to jump on as well. I think Stanford's first 9 games or something they covered the spread.

The other reason is that since I go to a non AQ school, I can stay reasonably unbiased when looking at the games.

Capt Murphy posted:

Random question: why an arbitrary number like $22 for your units?

I assume it's because 22 pays out 20.

compton ass terry fucked around with this message at Jul 12, 2012 around 19:27

# ? Jul 12, 2012 18:51

jase1: Aug 11, 2004; The Biz never sleeps!

I have only been betting on sports seriously and not really good either for about 2 years. I will probably be risking roughly $260 each week and I think I am going to try a little stupid system that me and my uncle came up with. Basically every week I will be putting $10 on every game whether it be the O/U or the spread. I know there wont be 16 games every week because of byes that is why it's a rough estimate. Then the other $100 I will be doing one bet whether it be a teaser, parlay or just a straight bet depending on what I want to bet or what I like as the best option for the week. I am sure I am going to fail miserably but it will be fun because I have never really had any type of system so I want to see if I can keep that system going or just panic after week one and bet like crazy.

Looking forward to a couple of goon bets because I made some money of those last season. My best bet last season was taking the Colts in Curtis Painters first start and they actually covered. I think it was even a MNF game and it was awesome rooting for them at the bar and everyone asking me why I am rooting for the Colts without Manning. My worst bet was the whole rest of the season.

# ? Jul 12, 2012 19:57

zonacat: Jan 12, 2005

compton rear end terry posted:

I assume it's because 22 pays out 20.

This is correct. Something that's not noticed in the online betting world because everything is just numbers and its OK to bet 20 to win 18.18. In the sportsbook the 18 centses * a bunch of bets equals a large pain in the rear end.

Lost my rear end last year on anything and everything football related and finally made about 1/4 of my money back at the end of the season betting on overs in the bowl games. Although I think I lost that all in the NFL playoffs I can't even remember now. Fully expecting to lose my rear end again this year but hey at least its fun, and make the Thursday Night shitfests watchable

# ? Jul 12, 2012 20:51

Zerilan: Jan 11, 2008; You can't always run from what scares ya.

What's the minimum bet that most of those sites allow?

# ? Jul 12, 2012 21:12

compton ass terry: Nov 20, 2006; Do you know where I'm from?

Zerilan posted:

What's the minimum bet that most of those sites allow?

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/ is helpful for those looking at online books.

Bovada is $1 minimums, which is nice for crazy parlays.

# ? Jul 12, 2012 21:38

Nibbler: Feb 13, 2007; America's Game, the way it's meant to be played.

I can't use Bovada anymore because I live in WA state. I used them last year and ended up 800 at the end of the year, which was a lot for me because I only put in 50 and the year before I spent all season just making back my 50 bucks. I threw my accumulated 350 on the Giants to win the Superbowl so it was all or nothing.

I'm with 5dimes now and hopefully that doesn't get shut down for me. I had a lot of fun last year, even when I was losing (which was like every other week).

# ? Jul 12, 2012 21:56

Menamino: Jul 23, 2004; WHERE DA LEAD AT

My bank completely blocked out Bovada for the last year+, but I tried 5dimes just now to deposit on the advice of this thread and it worked easily.

Although Bovada saved me from betting my house on the under for the Bengals last preseason, so for that I am thankful.

# ? Jul 12, 2012 22:09

compton ass terry: Nov 20, 2006; Do you know where I'm from?

Bovada has Wisconsin at -200 to win the Leaders Division (Without Ohio State due to postseason ban)

I know season long futures are generally looked down upon because they tie up bankroll for an entire season, but I cannot see Penn State, Illinois, Purdue, or Indiana being any threat.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 03:14

swickles: Aug 21, 2006; Scoring? No, sir, I trust my opponents to be men of upstanding moral character.

compton rear end terry posted:

Bovada has Wisconsin at -200 to win the Leaders Division (Without Ohio State due to postseason ban)

I know season long futures are generally looked down upon because they tie up bankroll for an entire season, but I cannot see Penn State, Illinois, Purdue, or Indiana being any threat.

And once Penn State is burned to the ground, they really won't have any competition!

# ? Jul 13, 2012 03:21

Toussaint Louverture: Mar 31, 2007; Atkins Diet

Menamino posted:

Although Bovada saved me from betting my house on the under for the Bengals last preseason, so for that I am thankful.

I was reading through archives and meant to ask you how that turned out...

# ? Jul 13, 2012 06:08

Its Miller Time: Dec 4, 2004

Got 50 to win 1k on the Niners winning it this year. Between this and my college roommate becoming a beat reporter for them I'm considering full on adopting them.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 06:12

soggybagel: Aug 6, 2006; Road conditions? Icey.
Seat belts? For pussies.
Ferrari? 360 Modena.
Speed? Not fast enou-
TREE! OH GOD OH GOD NO
I'M SO SORRY DEVIN

A Warning. NEVER BET ON MINNESOTA TEAMS (NCAA OR NFL). They will crush your spirits and your wallet.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 06:27

Chichevache: Feb 16, 2010

Put all your money on Seattle losing @SF. It is TNF and Seattle has a long way to travel. No way they beat the Niners.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 07:00

HanabaL03: Nov 12, 2003; We're spread, we're spread, we're spreading our.... wings!

Capt Murphy posted:

This is pure fantasy and you know it. You're going to have 3-5 bets riding on every weekend, but it's totally cool because we're gonna own that poo poo.

Random question: why an arbitrary number like $22 for your units?

Knee-jerk homer advice: I like the Texans at 11-1 to win the Super Bowl if you're looking for value. We're going to be quite good this year (dare to dream, Murphy!). However, I'm not sure about the O/U of 10. I think OVER may be the play just because 10 gets you a push and I think we'll do that at the very least.

I know, I'm sure I'll have anywhere from $40-$100 down each weekend on football games. What I might do is just bet $11 on each game instead of $22 to free my bankroll up a bit. In Vegas each line is usually +110, it's frowned upon to bet just 10 or 20 on a game unless it's +100.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 07:27

pathetic little tramp: Dec 12, 2005; HE IS GLISTEN

Wow, you can bet on the olympics, that just doesn't seem right.

I was going to put some money on a team to win the Grey Cup, but the futures only cover NCAA and NFL. I guess when your league only has eight teams, everything's a crap shoot.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 17:10

Knightmare: Aug 23, 2004; Show us what you got, what you got

I got into NFL gambling last year thanks to last year's thread. I started off well and after doubling my bankroll I slowed way down and eventually stopped. I can't remember why, but the lines were much tighter and I wasn't keeping up with the league as much I guess.

That said, the first few weeks probably have the most potential when a lot of teams are still relatively unknown.

Also, be careful with parlays. I know it's fun to put in $5 and try to turn it into $5500 when 19 of your 19 bets work out but with the NFL randomness it almost never does (which is why you get those odds when you stack bets in the first place). Obviously there are a few success stories, I had one work out but I'm pretty sure I then blew that money on future parlays trying to win big again. Without looking at last year's thread I vaguely recall a lot of people doing some pretty crazy parlays as well.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 17:48

Wario In Real Life: Nov 9, 2009

I hit a 6 or 7 team $100 parlay last year to win $1500. It was fun but that last loving game is the most tense thing in the world.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 19:56

HanabaL03: Nov 12, 2003; We're spread, we're spread, we're spreading our.... wings!

I want to try something this year and want to see who's down for it. Each week whoever participates picks 5 NFL Games ATS or O/U. I'll use an excel sheet to keep track and we can see who the best betting goon was this year. Maybe Capt. Murphy can add the standings to the OP. I'll figure out the logistics of it soon, but I'm thinking I'll set up a gmail account where you email in your picks each week and I'll post the compiled list each weekend before the games start. That way if casual goons want to jump on the picks they can.

So with that said, who's interested?

Alright, so far we have:

Capt. Murhpy
HanabaL03
Wario In Real Life
Bearnt!

I'm also liking the hypothetical bankroll of $220 per week where you get to choose how you spread it across 5 games. Minimum of $22 per game, everyone picks their "lock of the week" which will be tracked as well. The reason I pick 220 and 22 for the bets is because it evens out to 22 to win 20. I suck at math and it will make it easier for me to add up all the winnings we will be hypothetically rolling in.

HanabaL03 fucked around with this message at Jul 13, 2012 around 21:31

# ? Jul 13, 2012 20:42

Capt Murphy: Nov 16, 2005

HanabaL03 posted:

I want to try something this year and want to see who's down for it. Each week whoever participates picks 5 NFL Games ATS or O/U. I'll use an excel sheet to keep track and we can see who the best betting goon was this year. Maybe Capt. Murphy can add the standings to the OP. I'll figure out the logistics of it soon, but I'm thinking I'll set up a gmail account where you email in your picks each week and I'll post the compiled list each weekend before the games start. That way if casual goons want to jump on the picks they can.

So with that said, who's interested?

Obviously I'm all over this and obviously the standings will go in the OP so I can prove once and for all what a complete fraud I am.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 20:55

Wario In Real Life: Nov 9, 2009

Hell yase.

EDIT: Maybe have a certain amount of a "bankroll" that you can bet every single week. Like $50 or $100 or something. That way if I want to bet 3 units on the Bears at +220 I can. Your + or - for that week is added to your "score" total and can't be applied to the next weeks bankroll.

Otherwise it's just like a pickem.

EDIT 2: That also allows for someone to get way ahead pretty early on a fluke pick, but I think we need something to incorporate actual gambling prowess and less of a pickem feel.

Wario In Real Life fucked around with this message at Jul 13, 2012 around 21:14

# ? Jul 13, 2012 21:07

Bearnt!: Feb 6, 2004; No onions, no onions

Definitely interested!

# ? Jul 13, 2012 21:10

Pron on VHS: Nov 14, 2005

Count me in

# ? Jul 13, 2012 21:50

jase1: Aug 11, 2004; The Biz never sleeps!

Count me in on this.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 21:52

compton ass terry: Nov 20, 2006; Do you know where I'm from?

I'm in.
You might wanna look into the Hilton Supercontest, what you're talking about doing sounds very familiar.
http://www.wagerminds.com/blog/hilt...d-to-know-6276/

I'd suggest using everyone using the same lines that don't move for the sake of simplicity.

Mess around with google docs. You can set up a form that we can all submit to that autopopulates a speadsheet. If you need help I've done something similar before so between everyone here we can figure it out.

For any last minute line changes, twitter can be a good resource. Here's a good article about it http://www.wagerminds.com/blog/twit...s-bettors-6307/

compton ass terry fucked around with this message at Jul 13, 2012 around 22:19

# ? Jul 13, 2012 22:11

Pron on VHS: Nov 14, 2005

I'm down with adopting the LVH Contest's format for scoring even, I've always wanted to enter it but $1,500 is a steep fee for me.

# ? Jul 13, 2012 22:26

HanabaL03: Nov 12, 2003; We're spread, we're spread, we're spreading our.... wings!

compton rear end terry posted:

I'm in.
You might wanna look into the Hilton Supercontest, what you're talking about doing sounds very familiar.
http://www.wagerminds.com/blog/hilt...d-to-know-6276/

I'd suggest using everyone using the same lines that don't move for the sake of simplicity.

Mess around with google docs. You can set up a form that we can all submit to that autopopulates a speadsheet. If you need help I've done something similar before so between everyone here we can figure it out.

For any last minute line changes, twitter can be a good resource. Here's a good article about it http://www.wagerminds.com/blog/twit...s-bettors-6307/

I like that format, but I also like the idea of each of us using different dollar amounts for each game. That way if we go on a cold streak, but start hitting our big bets each week we are still in it.

If you are interested email SASfootballbets at gmail dot com. I've never created a google spreadsheet before, so I might need help with it.

HanabaL03 fucked around with this message at Jul 13, 2012 around 22:34

# ? Jul 13, 2012 22:31

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# ? May 23, 2013 03:12

Wario In Real Life: Nov 9, 2009

I'd prefer a system where you can incorporate actual odds and confidence. That supercontest just looks like a boring weekly pickem that incorporates spreads.

I suppose we could do both for the traditionalists out there, but the former doesn't really feel like gambling to me.

Wario In Real Life fucked around with this message at Jul 13, 2012 around 22:40

# ? Jul 13, 2012 22:35

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