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Wario In Real Life posted:I'd prefer a system where you can incorporate actual odds and confidence. That supercontest just looks like a boring weekly pickem that incorporates spreads. The spread is the same thing as the odds for the game, I'm confused by what you mean. Do you mean you want the contest to reflect the varying sizes of bets we make? If so we can just use units, with a pre-agreed unit size. I say something real small like 1 unit = $1 or $5 so everyone is comfortable with it, I usually wager $10-70 per NFL regular season bet so that unit size works great for me. What do you guys think?
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| # ? Jul 13, 2012 23:03 |
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| # ? May 18, 2013 21:08 |
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Pron on VHS posted:The spread is the same thing as the odds for the game, I'm confused by what you mean. Do you mean you want the contest to reflect the varying sizes of bets we make? If so we can just use units, with a pre-agreed unit size. I say something real small like 1 unit = $1 or $5 so everyone is comfortable with it, I usually wager $10-70 per NFL regular season bet so that unit size works great for me. What do you guys think? EDIT: Unless football bets don't actually have odds and are all just -110. God it's been so long I can't even remember.
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| # ? Jul 13, 2012 23:06 |
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Wario In Real Life posted:Spreads are -7/+3. Odds are -115/+140. I want to be able to determine value on a pick based on the possible payout. I also would like to be able to show confidence in certain picks by betting more than one unit on a pick. If you are betting on the spread, the odds will usually be -110, that's the whole point of the spread system, to even the odds for each side. I guess we can include moneyline bets (what you are referring to), it all depends on how we want to do it. I'm down with everyone starting off with a set amount and judging the winner by whoever has the most profit by the end.
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| # ? Jul 13, 2012 23:10 |
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Pron on VHS posted:If you are betting on the spread, the odds will usually be -110, that's the whole point of the spread system, to even the odds for each side. I guess we can include moneyline bets (what you are referring to), it all depends on how we want to do it. I'm down with everyone starting off with a set amount and judging the winner by whoever has the most profit by the end. That's exactly how I want to determine the winner too. Whoever has the most profit at the end of week 17 is the winner. After thinking a bit more about it here is how I see it playing out: We use the lines that are set at Wednesday of each week from a site TBD. You guys email me by Thursday at noon PST your 5 picks for the week. Each week we have $220 (this number can change depending on how you guys want to do it) to play with, you can bet on either the spread, the over under or the ML. You have to bet on 5 games each week and each minimum bet is $20. When you email in your picks you have to be clear on what you are taking, i.e. point spread, over under or ML. Each week I'll add up the total winnings for each person and post the results.
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| # ? Jul 13, 2012 23:27 |
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I like those terms, although I'd rather have it just be "you must bet your entire bankroll (for that week)". No idea if this would just lead to people dumping their entire weekly bankroll on a single ML in hopes at making huge bank, but making someone bet on a certain number of games seems forced. It's not about winning % but more how much money can you make.
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| # ? Jul 13, 2012 23:32 |
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Do any Visa gift cards still work with Bovada? They took my regular Visa card twice but then after that Visa started declining and when I called they said there was nothing they could do about it. Bought a Visa Vanilla gift card only to find out if it was purchased after March 10 2012 you can't use it for online international purchases.
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| # ? Jul 13, 2012 23:37 |
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Stupid Post Maker posted:Do any Visa gift cards still work with Bovada? They took my regular Visa card twice but then after that Visa started declining and when I called they said there was nothing they could do about it. Bought a Visa Vanilla gift card only to find out if it was purchased after March 10 2012 you can't use it for online international purchases.
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| # ? Jul 13, 2012 23:40 |
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HanabaL03 posted:When you email in your picks you have to be clear on what you are taking, i.e. point spread, over under or ML. Each week I'll add up the total winnings for each person and post the results. If we do a form like this every week https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...kppX2c6MQ#gid=0 Which then exports to this, it could be used to keep track of everything https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...ZYbkppX2c#gid=0(can be set to private during submission times, then changed back to public once the deadline hits.) If email is just easier on you, we should go with that compton ass terry fucked around with this message at Jul 14, 2012 around 00:36 |
| # ? Jul 14, 2012 00:25 |
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Wario In Real Life posted:I like those terms, although I'd rather have it just be "you must bet your entire bankroll (for that week)". I'm on board with that too. I also think you should be forced to place all five bets instead of letting it ride on one. So having to use the entire $220 you could presumably do four bets of the minimum $20 each equaling $80 leaving you with $140 to put on one game if you wanted to. ATS, Totals and ML all sounds fine to me though I think it's a little  if you're going to ML bet the Packers when the Jaguars come to town but hey whatever floats your boat. Plus with the juice and nothing being a lock in the NFL it would all even out anyways. Besides how much would you really win on a game like that when the goal is making the most money not the best record as previously stated.
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| # ? Jul 14, 2012 01:14 |
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You're not seeing the other side of the Moneyline, betting on underdogs.
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| # ? Jul 14, 2012 01:47 |
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Nybble posted:You're not seeing the other side of the Moneyline, betting on underdogs. Oh no I am, that's why I think we should have it instead of just ATS and totals.
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| # ? Jul 14, 2012 01:54 |
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I'm down with $100 per week. Required 5 bets. You can spread your bankroll however you please ($10 minimum bet?) on the spread/ml/uo of every game as pulled from some decided source at some decided time during the week.
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| # ? Jul 14, 2012 02:01 |
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parlays are great but 9 times out of 10 it will end with broken furniture I MEAN JESUS CHRIST SAINTS YOU COULDNT BEAT THE loving RAMS gently caress
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| # ? Jul 14, 2012 10:19 |
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Big Bob Pataki posted:parlays are great but 9 times out of 10 it will end with broken furniture Seahawks cost me 2K in profit off a parlay by losing to the Rex Grossman Redskins at home. I'm sorry, but one of the most opportunistic secondaries in the league should have no trouble picking off the loving Dragon.
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| # ? Jul 14, 2012 10:23 |
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Big Bob Pataki posted:parlays are great but 9 times out of 10 it will end with broken furniture I was in Vegas that day at Caesar's Palace. I think a table-flipping record was set.
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| # ? Jul 14, 2012 10:48 |
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I mean, it was AJ Feely starting for the Rams. How could we have known? (I stayed away, because I believe in jinxes and St. Louis winning the world series shortly before that game)
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| # ? Jul 14, 2012 11:39 |
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Chichevache posted:Seahawks cost me 2K in profit off a parlay by losing to the Rex Grossman Redskins at home. I'm sorry, but one of the most opportunistic secondaries in the league should have no trouble picking off the loving Dragon.
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| # ? Jul 14, 2012 16:18 |
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Catfish Stevens posted:I was in Vegas that day at Caesar's Palace. I think a table-flipping record was set. Occasionally I'll meet up with my buddies at a sports book during football season and it's awesome seeing how the room is split. Especially when it comes down to a final play, half the guys are high fiving and chest bumping, the other half are throwing drinks and tearing their game tickets.
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| # ? Jul 14, 2012 18:08 |
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Chichevache posted:Seahawks cost me 2K in profit off a parlay by losing to the Rex Grossman Redskins at home. I'm sorry, but one of the most opportunistic secondaries in the league should have no trouble picking off the loving Dragon. That game by far was the most disappointing just in general for me last year. I also lost money on it(although nowhere near 2k). I thought it was a lock, man.
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| # ? Jul 14, 2012 18:10 |
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Nibbler posted:That game by far was the most disappointing just in general for me last year. I also lost money on it(although nowhere near 2k). I thought it was a lock, man. I didn't lose 2K, I'm a broke rear end student. It was a cheap 6 team parlay that would have been worth 2K with the Seattle/Washington game as the final bet. I could have eaten something besides ramen...
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| # ? Jul 14, 2012 19:06 |
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Bearnt! posted:I'm on board with that too. I also think you should be forced to place all five bets instead of letting it ride on one. So having to use the entire $220 you could presumably do four bets of the minimum $20 each equaling $80 leaving you with $140 to put on one game if you wanted to. ATS, Totals and ML all sounds fine to me though I think it's a little This is not a bad suggestion but I would hope the minimum bet is smaller so you're able to bet more than 63% on one team. A $10 minimum would be 82% and a $5 minimum would be 91%.
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| # ? Jul 15, 2012 04:30 |
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HanabaL03 posted:So with that said, who's interested?
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| # ? Jul 15, 2012 13:55 |
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If this is the wrong place to ask then I'm sorry. In vegas, heres a couple bets on the super bowl winner I like: Panthers 30-1 Bears 7 Ravens 12 gonna put down some dough this pm, what do you guys think?
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| # ? Jul 15, 2012 18:51 |
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nuncle jimbo posted:If this is the wrong place to ask then I'm sorry. In vegas, heres a couple bets on the super bowl winner I like: Do you have a chance to hedge these later? But I like them, all of them possibly could move up, allowing for profit.
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| # ? Jul 15, 2012 19:08 |
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nuncle jimbo posted:If this is the wrong place to ask then I'm sorry. In vegas, heres a couple bets on the super bowl winner I like: I've been high on the Bears since the end of last season. However as we've seen once you make the playoffs all bets are off and anyone can win. With that said I really like the Panthers at 30-1. They could easily get a wild card bid since the only team that can give them problems is the Saints. If they have any secondary this year they will win 9 games.
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| # ? Jul 15, 2012 20:49 |
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I got the Bears at 30-1 (right after the SB, before they got Marshall) as part of a Bovada promotion "Bet on a team to win the SB next year and get your money back if they don't!" or something like that.quote:Single #244391783 
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| # ? Jul 15, 2012 20:56 |
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nuncle jimbo posted:If this is the wrong place to ask then I'm sorry. In vegas, heres a couple bets on the super bowl winner I like: I think the Bears are overvalued at 7. They're 20 on my book (sportsbook.com). Looking at my list, I like: Texans 10 Steelers/Saints 15 Lions 20 edit: How can I hedge my 20:1 bet on the Niners? I bet 50 to win 1000. It's currently at 7 on my book. That means I have a guaranteed profit of...80 bucks if I lay 130 at 7:1? Trying to convince myself $80 guaranteed bucks 6 months from now is not worth a 10-20:1 chance at winning 1k. Its Miller Time fucked around with this message at Jul 15, 2012 around 21:34 |
| # ? Jul 15, 2012 21:23 |
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What? That's not how hedging works. You're betting on the same outcome...
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| # ? Jul 15, 2012 21:34 |
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Am I thinking about hedging wrong? What's the other outcome you can bet on in a SB winner bet? edit: Found this on Google. I was thinking about it as "how could I lock my profit in now", but I guess in a SB winner bet hedging really means the hedging once they're actually in the SB quote:Let's look at an example of a classic hedge: Before the season, you are super bowl betting $100 on Cincinnati to win the Super Bowl at 10-1. Now they are facing Detroit in the Super Bowl and are a narrow favorite. You can get Detroit at +120 on the money line, so the hedge would be to bet, say, $500 to win $600 on Detroit. If Cincinnati wins, you win $1,000 and lose $500, for a profit of $500. If Detroit wins, you lose $100 and win $600, for a profit of $500. So you win either way. and I think their commentary on it is interesting quote:Is this a good hedge bet? I think you have to look at them as independent wagers and not be suckered into grabbing the free $500. If Cincinnati is more likely to win than the +120 price you're getting on Detroit would indicate, then your $100 to win $1,000 wager on Cincinnati is worth more than $500. Don't, in effect, let the book buy it back from you for $500 if it's worth more. Its Miller Time fucked around with this message at Jul 15, 2012 around 21:40 |
| # ? Jul 15, 2012 21:36 |
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You can't. You gotta wait until the Niners are actually in the Super Bowl, at which point you put $xxx on the other team so that even if they lose you still win money.
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| # ? Jul 15, 2012 21:38 |
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Its Miller Time posted:Am I thinking about hedging wrong? What's the other outcome you can bet on in a SB winner bet? You're thinking of Arbitrage betting (arbs) quote:For example, if one book were offering the Yankees to win against the Blue Jays at -150, and another book were offering the Blue Jays to win against the Yankees at +155, then for every $100 you bet on the Yankees, were you to bet $65.36 on the Blue Jays, you'd guarantee a risk-free profit of $1.31 or 0.791%. http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-too...age-calculator/ As you can imagine, books don't like giving away money so most arbs are razor thin and available for a short time. You definitely don't want to tie up $1000 for a whole NFL season to lock in a profit of something on the order of $5 even if you could find the right bet.
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| # ? Jul 15, 2012 22:00 |
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Just going to put this out here. http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id...contenders-ncaa To be clear any preseason futures bet on winning the Super Bowl is almost always a bad bet. If you're taking a team at 6/1 though, you're essentially guaranteeing that team will be a #1 seed and a significant favorite in all 3 playoff games through the Super Bowl for that bet to be +EV. Even then you can probably wait until the playoffs and get roughly the same odds on a 3 game ML parlay without any of the risk of the regular season screwing it up. That fact that SF has been bet up to 4/1 is completely ludicrous.
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| # ? Jul 17, 2012 17:39 |
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Washington 150/1 -> 25/1  -- Looks like across the board everything has tightened up though. I really like Baltimore at 15/1.
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| # ? Jul 17, 2012 17:54 |
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Some of those current odds are completely insane. I know a lot of people are loving the Bears as a dark horse team but 8/1 is silly when they are still in a division with Green Bay and Detroit. San Fran at 4/1!? Philly 10/1!? Most of that just looks like a good means of throwing money away.
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| # ? Jul 17, 2012 18:43 |
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I might sprinkle a few bucks on the Falcons, Chiefs and Bengals SB futures. Good for a possible hedge even if they won't go all the way.
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| # ? Jul 17, 2012 18:50 |
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Nybble posted:Looks like across the board everything has tightened up though. I was correct, check out the spreadsheet I just created. Looks like the average odds are at ~35/1, down from ~58/1. The entire market is harder to hit, so you're going to have to be a lot more selective. Which, in that case, if you want to do futures odds, you'll have to lock up your money for longer, but absolutely get it at the open in most cases, only 12 teams got better or unchanged odds, most favorites. If you want a long-shot for hedging purposes, you're going to have to grab it in the Spring, not during the Summer when more money is coming into the market.
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| # ? Jul 17, 2012 19:04 |
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When I was in Vegas about a month ago I took the over on the Seahawks winning 7.5 games this season- felt like easy money that I look forward to losing following the inevitable mid season collapse.
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| # ? Jul 17, 2012 19:51 |
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Capt Murphy posted:Some of those current odds are completely insane. I know a lot of people are loving the Bears as a dark horse team but 8/1 is silly when they are still in a division with Green Bay and Detroit. San Fran at 4/1!? Philly 10/1!? Most of that just looks like a good means of throwing money away. I look at future odds as basically saying can any of those teams grab a playoff spot, and if so are you getting better odds now then when the playoffs actually start? You shouldn't bet on any team that is better than 8-1. I forget what the 49ers were when the playoffs started, but they were more than 8-1 to win the superbowl. With that said I think you get good value in: Saints 12-1 Titans 80-1 (80-1 for any team is insane in the NFL. There is always a team that comes from no where to make the playoffs. Also they went 9-7 last season, not too shabby) Giants 18-1 (great value IMO) Colts 150-1 (Insane odds, especially since if Houston slips you got the Colts at 150 and Titans at 80-1) I'd for sure bet on the other AFC South teams. If the Texans slip up, one of those teams at insane odds are going to make the playoffs, and once the playoffs start all bets are off. But with that said, I think future odds are a "sucker bet". You're giving the casino lots of money during a crap shoot regular season. I'm pulling this number out of my rear end, but I'm guessing if you had taken the LA Kings to win the Stanley Cup when last season started, you'd have gotten worse odds than if you had taken them when the Stanley Cup Playoffs started. HanabaL03 fucked around with this message at Jul 17, 2012 around 21:29 |
| # ? Jul 17, 2012 20:45 |
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HanabaL03 posted:If the Texans slip up, one of those teams at insane odds are going to make the playoffs, and once the playoffs start all bets are off. 
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| # ? Jul 17, 2012 21:49 |
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| # ? May 18, 2013 21:08 |
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Wins totals from Station Casinos here in Vegas:
Packers 12 (Ov -110, Un -120) Eagles 10 (Ov -150, Un +120) Texans 10 (Ov -140, Un +110) 49ers 10 (Ov -115, Un -115) Ravens 10 (Ov -115, Un -115) Steelers 10 (Ov -110, Un -120) Saints 9.5 (Ov -140, Un +110) Falcons 9.5 (Ov EVEN, Un -130) Lions 9 (Ov -130, Un EVEN) Chargers 9 (Ov -125, Un -105) Broncos 9 (Ov -140, Un +110) Giants 9 (Ov -130, Un EVEN) Bears 9 (Ov -130, Un EVEN) Jets 9 (Ov +120, Un -150) Cowboys 8.5 (Ov -150, Un +120) Chiefs 8 (Ov -115, Un -115) Bengals 8 (Ov +110, Un -140) Panthers 7.5 (Ov -150, Un +120) Bills 7.5 (Ov -140, Un +110) Dolphins 7 (Ov -120, Un -110) Seahawks 7 (Ov -145, Un +115) Titans 7 (Ov -150, Un +120) Raiders 7 (Ov -130, Un EVEN) Cardinals 7 (Ov EVEN, Un -130) Redskins 6 (Ov -130, Un EVEN) Vikings 6 (Ov -110, Un -120) Rams 6 (Ov -115, Un -115) Buccaneers 6 (Ov -115, Un -115) Colts 5 (Ov -140, Un +110) Jaguars 5 (Ov -140, Un +110) Browns 5 (Ov -130, Un EVEN) HanabaL03 fucked around with this message at Jul 21, 2012 around 01:18 |
| # ? Jul 20, 2012 22:04 |
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