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Frijolero posted:"Caracas, City of Farewells" To refloat a LF classic: "p-pero... mi dinero?? mis videojuegos??"
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Oct 8, 2012 04:59
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a bad enough dude posted:Between 1997 to 2007 the poverty rate dropped from 54.5% to 33.6%. So yeah, Chavez has had a direct effect of lifting millions out of poverty. So you are implying that the violence is due to other causes. Do you have a particular insight as to why such violence is (reportedly) increasing, if it the increase is not correlated with the decrease in poverty, as might be expected? VVV Still, there's a legitimate argument to be made that Chavez's failings in reducing the crime rate may reflect a faulty agenda on Chavez's part. If Chavez was concerned with actually helping the country, would not seeking a reduction in crime go hand in hand with helping get people out of poverty in terms of "inherently good things that a leader should aspire to achieve"? ComradeCosmobot fucked around with this message at 05:08 on Oct 8, 2012 |
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Oct 8, 2012 05:02
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^^^ Yes.The Ender posted:Chavez is not perfect, and people like to point-out that he's not perfect while ignoring everything he has done for Venezuela. His policies overall have led to enormous growth and wealth equality, but critics will always say, "Well, [X] policy wasn't good, was it? Of course it wasn't. Therefore, Chavez is a failure." Second, I think there are clearly some anti-democratic features to Chavez's presidency, which is really a big political machine and patronage-type operation. But that's a different thing from saying the system as a whole is authoritarian, or that Venezuela really is a dictatorship. The fact is that the opposition doesn't have enough popular support to unseat him. PrezCamachoo posted:If his policies have been so good for the poor why has the crime rate gone through the roof since he came to power? Eh. I'm not really buying your argument. Venezuela went to hell before Chavez came to power (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caracazo) and the security crisis is much bigger than Caracas. Crime and drugs has been a problem across much of Latin America for decades. Look at Colombia, or much of Central America and Mexico. In Mexico, crime erupted after the corrupt old elites were thrown out of power and the old buddy network collapsed. It's such an enormously complicated problem and there's no single set of solutions any single leader could implement. BrutalistMcDonalds fucked around with this message at 05:25 on Oct 8, 2012 |
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Oct 8, 2012 05:04
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ComradeCosmobot posted:To be fair, those don't happen every week like Aló Presidente does, and certainly not with the exaggerated excessive durations that have been ascribed to that show. On an election year, ads are run by parties in America on a daily basis. It adds-up to hours & hours of airtime - it's just broken-up rather than all provided in one sitting. This is a bit of Devil's Advocacy on my part, I'll have to admit - I don't like Aló Presidente - but, as you said in the edit, it's part of Chavez bringing his policies into the public light & keeping his administration somewhat transparent. quote:If his policies have been so good for the poor why has the crime rate gone through the roof since he came to power? You have to remember where Venezuela started from when Chavez was elected: Most of the country was starving in the 1990s. The primary goal of Chavez's party over the past decade - and it still hasn't come full circle - was to get the country's agriculture on it's feet and get everyone fed. From the late 90s through Chavez's terms, malnutrition related deaths fell by 50%, and Venezuela's agriculture upticked like this: Soybeans: yields up by 858% Milk: production up by 50% Rice: yields up by 85% The average Venezuelan now consumes about 2800~ calories per day, and malnutrition in the country is at about 6%. The radical increase of crime in Venezuela - specifically, the increase in violent crime (homicide has almost quadrupled since Chavez has been in power) is almost certainly due to the intensification of the Mexican Civil War & Latin American Drug War. It's a small country in a geographically unfortunate place, with Colombia on one border and Brazil on the other - drugs being trafficked from Brazil to Colombia (and, often, from Brazil to Mexico) must travel through Venezuela. It's caught in the middle of a fight it never wanted, incidentally being subjected to violence perpetrated by drug cartels & the U.N.
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Oct 8, 2012 05:11
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PrezCamachoo posted:Are you really comparing Chavez taking over all Venezuelan airwaves multiple times a week for hours on end to US political events? That’s a good point, they’re not really analogous. At least with Chavez on TV you know exactly whose interests are being promoted.
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Oct 8, 2012 05:12
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quote:Are you really comparing Chavez taking over all Venezuelan airwaves multiple times a week for hours on end to US political events? I'm sorry, but this is ridiculous. Alo Presidente runs from 11:00 in the morning to about 5:00~ in the afternoon (there isn't a fixed end time, but on average it ends about 5-ish) on Sundays. How does that compare to the invasive nature of American political ads, American corporate advertising, etc? Are those not only on every channel at all hours of the day, but also run for far longer than 6 hours in aggregate? EDIT: ...Of course, I'm taking the bait, aren't I? "Hey, Chavez is a wicked man! Look, he runs a state television program! Ignore his policies or the increase in standard of the living that has allowed many Venezuelans to even own a TV in the first place - THAT SON OF A BITCH IS GONNA INTERRUPT MY TV SHOWS!" The Ender fucked around with this message at 05:25 on Oct 8, 2012 |
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Oct 8, 2012 05:22
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NKVD posted:That’s a good point, they’re not really analogous. HEY-O!! Besides, he's putting himself out there to be liked or disliked, hated or loved, noticed or neglected. If you hate Chavez and he comes on the TV for hours you're not going to like him much more.
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Oct 8, 2012 05:24
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Frijolero posted:HEY-O!! Now, in fairness, I'll have to level my own criticism of Alo Presidente here: Chavez is definitely using it as a heavily biased propaganda vehicle. It targets younger viewers, it offers (basically) only Chavez's point of view, and there is no equivalent program for any opposition party. Chavez has created a television monopoly for himself, which very likely gives him a huge advantage when election time rolls around.
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Oct 8, 2012 05:31
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Venezuela murders - (rate per 100,000) 95 - 4481 (19.4) 96 - 4961 97 - 4225 98 - 4550 99 - 5968 00 - 8022 01 - 7960 02 - 9617 03 - 11342 04 - 9719 05 - 9964 06 - 12257 07 - 13156 08 - 14589 09 - 13985 10 - 13080 11 - 14000 (48) Colombia - 95 - 25398 (69.7) 96 - 26642 97 - 25379 98 - 23096 99 - 24358 00 - 26540 01 - 27840 02 - 28837 03 - 23523 04 - 20210 05 - 18111 06 - 17479 07 - 17198 08 - 16140 09 - 15817 10 - 15459 11 - 14746 (31.4) Brazil - I'll just post rates because I'm tired of typing in this data 04 - 22.5 05 - 22.4 06 - 22.7 07 - 22.3 08 - 22.8 09 - 21.7 10 - 21.0 Mexico - 95 - 16.9 96 - 15.5 97 - 14.2 98 - 14.1 99 - 12.4 00 - 10.7 01 - 10.2 02 - 9.8 03 - 9.7 04 - 8.9 05 - 9.3 06 - 9.7 07 - 8.1 08 - 12.7 09 - 17.7 10 - 22.7 11 - 23.7
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Oct 8, 2012 05:35
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SexyBlindfold posted:To refloat a LF classic: "p-pero... mi dinero?? mis videojuegos??" Yeah it sure is funny that people want to escape a country that has become increasingly violent. PrezCamachoo posted:If his policies have been so good for the poor why has the crime rate gone through the roof since he came to power? Yeah, Caracas is in terrible shape, and will probably only get worse. Chavez has basically reinforced the South American "thing" where the cops are just a gang competing with other gangs.
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Oct 8, 2012 05:37
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The Ender posted:I'm sorry, but this is ridiculous. Alo Presidente runs from 11:00 in the morning to about 5:00~ in the afternoon (there isn't a fixed end time, but on average it ends about 5-ish) on Sundays. We're not talking about the same things. Cadena Nacional is not Alo Presidente...
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Oct 8, 2012 05:38
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/bemused So, where are you getting those Mexican numbers from, out of curiosity? /bemused At any rate, those numbers for Venezuela are actually better than what I had assumed (48~ vs 76~). What do you think is causing the violent crime, and why do you think it is reasonable to blame the Chavez administration?
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Oct 8, 2012 05:39
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Thats the thing I don't know if it should be Americans that start attacking Venezulean democracy considering how hosed up our own system, everything from ID voter laws/Citizen United to our backward way of assigning seats (two senators a state regardless of population, massive gerrymandering of districts) within an obsolete first past the post system. Chavez using the state channel for his purposes is abusive, but many of opponents seem just as vicious and have pretty deep pockets themselves. A victory for Chavez is ultimately a good thing, not so much that Chavez is a great leader (he is mediocre at best) but that South America has a much greater chance of charting a new course way from American imperialism with him around. I would prefer the PSUV to eventually nominate someone else, and they might next round due to health reasons.
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Oct 8, 2012 05:39
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^^^ Chavez's influence throughout Latin America has already started to fade. When Ollanta Humala in Peru successfully ran on a Lula-style and not Chavez-style platform, it was a sign that Hugo had been eclipsed.The Ender posted:Now, in fairness, I'll have to level my own criticism of Alo Presidente here: Chavez is definitely using it as a heavily biased propaganda vehicle. It targets younger viewers, it offers (basically) only Chavez's point of view, and there is no equivalent program for any opposition party. Also, you're ignoring the cadenas, which do go on the air several times a week and can last between a few minutes and several hours on both terrestrial networks and radio. If you have a satellite dish or cable you can always just switch the channel. But if you're poor then maybe not.
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Oct 8, 2012 05:40
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quote:Cadena Nacional ...You're objecting to the Venezuelan emergency broadcast system? That's, uh, well. That's an opinion, I guess. Did you know there's also an emergency broadcast system in the United States? 
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Oct 8, 2012 05:41
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I'm speaking as a relatively uninformed outsider here, but I've read that Chavez thought that if the standard of living for the poor improved then the crime rate would fall of its own accord (I think Lenin makes a similar argument in The State and Revolution). In fact this has not happened (or rather, the opposite has happened) and so the state is having to consider how to deal with the problem in other ways.
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Oct 8, 2012 05:42
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The Ender posted:...You're objecting to the Venezuelan emergency broadcast system?
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Oct 8, 2012 05:45
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The Ender posted:/bemused United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime Their source for Mexico is the government NSO. Their source for Venezuela is The Venezuelan Program of Action and Education in Human Rights (PROVEA), an NGO, because the Venezuelan government doesn't bother to publish murder statistics anymore. Other sources for Venezuela do cite a much larger murder rate. For example, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-16349118 Colombia's data is from the National Police and Brazil's from the Ministry of Justice.
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Oct 8, 2012 05:47
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Omi-Polari posted:You realize that Chavez has taken over the emergency broadcast system and now uses it mainly broadcast propaganda, don't you? Dude really has no idea what's going on in Venezuela.
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Oct 8, 2012 05:48
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The crime thing is interesting and disconcerting if true, but from the anti-Chavez people I would like to know why they think his rule in particular is fuelling the increase?
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Oct 8, 2012 05:49
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MaterialConceptual posted:I'm speaking as a relatively uninformed outsider here, but I've read that Chavez thought that if the standard of living for the poor improved then the crime rate would fall of its own accord (I think Lenin makes a similar argument in The State and Revolution). In fact this has not happened (or rather, the opposite has happened) and so the state is having to consider how to deal with the problem in other ways. That might or might not be true, but the core issue is that Chavez has focused his administration mostly on creating & improving agriculture. Crime would be a secondary priority at best to getting food in people's mouths. Chavez also has pretty limited control over spillover from the drug war. quote:You realize that Chavez has taken over the emergency broadcast system and now uses it mainly broadcast propaganda, don't you? That's certainly news to me. Source?
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Oct 8, 2012 05:48
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Omi-Polari posted:^^^ Chavez's influence throughout Latin America has already started to fade. When Ollanta Humala in Peru successfully ran on a Lula-style and not Chavez-style platform, it was a sign that Hugo had been eclipsed. His primary allies haven't fallen yet, and he has certainly created a opening in the regional political narrative. Even his opponents in Venezuela now support a safety net because the narrative has shifted to the left. The sheer fact that Hugo is out there provides a different model than just the standard neo-liberal political alignment, it is a big deal. I wouldn't automatically assume that because the murder rate rose that people are necessarily worse off, especially when a drug war is heating up. Also, the rising murder rate seems to be the primary social criticism of Chavez which makes the question the reason it is so often brought up.
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Oct 8, 2012 05:51
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Ardennes posted:
And the rest of South America can't achieve growth like Chile, Brazil, or Costa Rica because of what reason?
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Oct 8, 2012 05:52
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quote:United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime You do realize that the Mexican government has a sort of 'interesting' way of tabulating casualties from it's civil war, right? For example, disappeared people don't count. They're just 'missing'. The government also under reports the number of police killed, and doesn't count any cartel member deaths as 'murder'. Those numbers are anything but reliable. From '93 to 2006, nearly 4,000 women were killed in Juarez alone, with their bodies dumped in ditches.
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Oct 8, 2012 05:54
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Omi-Polari posted:You realize that Chavez has taken over the emergency broadcast system and now uses it mainly broadcast propaganda, don't you? If the most damning thing you can say about the guy is that he's taken over some hours of tv broadcast I'm going to have to say he's probably doing a pretty good job. Maybe you and the other anti-Chavez individuals would care to go into more detail about why he's so bad?
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Oct 8, 2012 05:54
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PrezCamachoo posted:And the rest of South America can't achieve growth like Chile, Brazil, or Costa Rica because of what reason? Yeah, economic growth is unimportant compared to addressing economic inequality, if growth address inequality fine. Also, your question is out of left field. Chavez and Morales need to be thrown out by force to improve economic growth?
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Oct 8, 2012 05:56
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a lovely poster posted:If the most damning thing you can say about the guy is that he's taken over some hours of tv broadcast I'm going to have to say he's probably doing a pretty good job. Maybe you and the other anti-Chavez individuals would care to go into more detail about why he's so bad? This, pretty much. I mean, it is kind of funny to see Americans fitting the stereotype and bitching about how Chavez is preventing millions of Venezuelans from watching Grey's Anatomy interspersed with L'Oreal Group mascara commercials.
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Oct 8, 2012 06:01
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The Ender posted:You do realize that the Mexican government has a sort of 'interesting' way of tabulating casualties from it's civil war, right? For example, disappeared people don't count. They're just 'missing'. The statistics are only for intentional homicide. Unlawful death purposefully inflicted on a person by another person.
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Oct 8, 2012 06:01
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a lovely poster posted:If the most damning thing you can say about the guy is that he's taken over some hours of tv broadcast I'm going to have to say he's probably doing a pretty good job. Maybe you and the other anti-Chavez individuals would care to go into more detail about why he's so bad? The Ender posted:That's certainly news to me. Source? quote:The 11th anniversary of Chavez’ rule on 2 February 2010 saw him deliver his 2,000th “cadena,” which have totalled the equivalent of nearly two months of speaking continuously. This does not include his regular Sunday broadcast “Aló Presidente” on VTV, or a new programme started on 18 February, called “De repente… Con Chávez” (“Suddenly… with Chávez”) with no set schedule. quote:Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez Frías has used cadenas—nationwide radio and television addresses that preempt programming on all stations—to challenge the private media’s news coverage and amplify the government’s voice. In his radio and TV call-in program, “Aló, Presidente” (Hello, President), Chávez often lambastes critics in the media and the political opposition. quote:The system was designed decades ago as a way to ensure the timely diffusion of information in case of natural disasters or to broadcast the rare state ceremony. But its use has exploded in the Chávez era. Now, several times a week we’re hit with lengthy cadenas, always highly scripted affairs: torrents of propaganda usually in the form of a speech delivered to a handpicked audience of Chávez loyalists.
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Oct 8, 2012 06:03
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PrezCamachoo posted:The statistics are only for intentional homicide. Unlawful death purposefully inflicted on a person by another person. Yeah, so in other words they are misleading. They do not at all tell the full story about the Mexican Civil War.
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Oct 8, 2012 06:03
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Ardennes posted:Yeah, economic growth is unimportant compared to addressing economic inequality, if growth address inequality fine. Also, your question is out of left field. Chavez and Morales need to be thrown out by force to improve economic growth? Who said they needed to be thrown out by force?
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Oct 8, 2012 06:02
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Omi-Polari posted:I don't think any of my posts in this thread have been particularly anti-Chavez. More often than not they've been defending Chavez. But when one of his defenders says they've never heard Chavez using the cadenas for propaganda purposes, I have to think there's some arguing in bad faith or willful ignorance. Alright, that's fair enough; I hadn't heard about these broadcasts. That's over the line, but still, it's television.
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Oct 8, 2012 06:07
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PrezCamachoo posted:Who said they needed to be thrown out by force? Most of the American right wing.
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Oct 8, 2012 06:08
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Considering that much of the Venezuelan media is entirely devoted to kicking Chavez out of office 24/7, him having a platform to challenge that narrative is fine with me.
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Oct 8, 2012 06:10
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The Ender posted:Yeah, so in other words they are misleading. They do not at all tell the full story about the Mexican Civil War. 27,199 murders were reported in 2011. Human rights organizations estimate the number of disappeared persons to be roughly 5,000 since 2006 (as of 2011). So maybe add on a thousand to the murders tally for each year... Hey you know what's weird? The Mexican murder rate even when you add in disappeared persons is still less than half of Venezuela's lowest estimates. And death by cop are also not calculated in the figures for Venezuela, Colombia, and Brazil....
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Oct 8, 2012 06:11
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The Ender posted:Most of the American right wing. You got a quote on that?
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Oct 8, 2012 06:11
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PrezCamachoo posted:Who said they needed to be thrown out by force? Well, it doesn't like he is going to be going any other way in the next 6 years and beyond. Also, high growth in Brazil especially had its own issues, and it remains to be seen how envious the rest of the world should be. Also, Brazilian growth is slowing down as the Chinese economy cools.
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Oct 8, 2012 06:11
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PrezCamachoo posted:27,199 murders were reported in 2011. Human rights organizations estimate the number of disappeared persons to be roughly 5,000 since 2006 (as of 2011). So maybe add on a thousand to the murders tally for each year... No, but they're not as significant in Venezuela as they are in Mexico, because Venezuela is not currently involved in a full blown civil war. At any rate, you didn't answer the question: Why do you think the Chavez administration is at fault for the violence in Venezuela?
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Oct 8, 2012 06:20
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Ardennes posted:Well, it doesn't like he is going to be going any other way in the next 6 years and beyond. It was technically Chaven's closest election. So maybe down the line the new opposition will continue to grow and develop.
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Oct 8, 2012 06:24
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The Ender posted:That's certainly news to me. Source? It's admittedly by way of a biased source, but this particular op/ed article suggests that cadenas are not exclusively being used for emergency purposes. At least, I cannot see why a speech by Chavez to steelworkers is an "emergency." But I'm willing to accept that the cadenas are not necessarily an emergency mechanism but rather a mechanism closer to American prime-time speeches given by the President (if, perhaps, excessive in quantity). (Please note that I don't mean to reference the article to refer to the actual partisan substance in it, being an accusation of malfeasance in production, but rather specifically to the possible over-use of the cadena.) EDIT: e;fb This was already linked above, and after all, an anecdote is not data. ComradeCosmobot fucked around with this message at 06:28 on Oct 8, 2012 |
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Oct 8, 2012 06:26
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