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The bottom line is that she'll be a two year politician who isn't very good at it, who would have to either beat a Clinton, a sitting VP or a laundry list of big names to get there, and who would have to start in Iowa because NH isn't as useful to her (if she polled too well everyone else would just skip it). She can't do it. One person in our lifetimes could, and he's in a completely different league.
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Nov 8, 2012 10:09
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Adar posted:The bottom line is that she'll be a two year politician who isn't very good at it, who would have to either beat a Clinton, a sitting VP or a laundry list of big names to get there, and who would have to start in Iowa because NH isn't as useful to her (if she polled too well everyone else would just skip it). Oh, I don't think Warren has a very plausible chance to be the nominee, don't get me wrong. But I do think there's a good chance she'll run to keep the field honest.
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Nov 8, 2012 10:13
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As an Australian who has an interest in US politics, what's the big appeal of Hillary?
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Nov 8, 2012 10:22
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jeffersonlives posted:Oh, I don't think Warren has a very plausible chance to be the nominee, don't get me wrong. But I do think there's a good chance she'll run to keep the field honest. Warren is far too smart to waste as much time and effort as would be required for the kind of token run you're suggesting.
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Nov 8, 2012 10:38
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Ragingsheep posted:As an Australian who has an interest in US politics, what's the big appeal of Hillary? A combination of missing the prosperity of the 90s, and years of watching her prove her competence on the national stage over and over.
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Nov 8, 2012 10:47
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Ragingsheep posted:As an Australian who has an interest in US politics, what's the big appeal of Hillary? Access to the entire big money Democratic donor base.
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Nov 8, 2012 10:56
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I think it does seem Warren might run and I would love that. SpaceMost posted:Joementum is some kind of non-giving up politics guy. I just had to say this. Joe your enthusiasm, knowledge and fire for this stuff is impressive. I also commend your efforts on moderating the previous threads and banning all the toxx'ers even must have been quite a job. Having said that, are you some sort of thin effeminate wizard like Silver? (of course you don't have to answer that serious question though I am just interested to ask if you happen to work in consultancy or something and this is some side-hobby to paid work).
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Nov 8, 2012 11:16
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What's the prospect for a celebrity candidate to attempt a run? Someone like Oprah Winfrey has the money and name recognition I imagine to make a legitimate challenge if they wanted to run.
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Nov 8, 2012 13:53
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What's the real chance that Rand Paul would make it through the primaries? I know he's got "Tea Party" support, but I don't see how he is viable on the national scene. Would his father have any impact on this?
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Nov 8, 2012 13:57
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Kalman posted:When was the last time a mayor successfully ran for a nomination? Never. There have been three Presidents who held a mayoral position (A. Johnson, Cleveland, and Coolidge), but they all had significant positions between that and the Presidency. I know of three mayoral bids for the Presidency, none of which were successful. The first two belong to John Lindsay, Republican Mayor of New York. In 1968 when there was a semi-serious early exploration but no real campaign partly because the nomination rules were different and partly because New York became something of a shitshow that year. He tried again in '72, that time as a Democrat, again leaving early. The third is of course Rudy Giuliani's absurd 2008 campaign. And I suppose we should say something here about Michael Bloomberg whose term is up soon and who has plenty of money to throw at a 2016 race and who would be adored by the media and Wall Street if he did, but who does not appear in my list on the first page. Fortunately, Mayor of New York is a dead end job. The compromises that people have to make in that position, the people they have to befriend and the positions they have to take poison them for larger seats. Bloomberg may very well try for it, and I will enjoy watching him shake hands in Iowa diners and stump in South Carolina fields, but he won't take it.
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Nov 8, 2012 13:57
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I want to echo adar here but also quote Sockface from the first page since I think he nailed it. Brigadier Sockface posted:Seriously pay close attention to her for more than one hour and you will see that she has neither the charisma, the art nor possibly the stomach to run for POTUS. She is not a natural politician. Not to mention: her age, and her not even completing her first senate term. Warren will absolutely not be a 2016 contender. I could potentially see her running as a "keep 'em honest" draftee in 2016 as JL said, but even that I find to be very, very unlikely.
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Nov 8, 2012 14:56
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Not that he has a realistic shot, but Indiana governor-elect Mike Pence is much more likely to run than Mitch Daniels. Since my hometown is part of his current congressional district (sorry, Indiana!), I really want to see him fail horribly on the national stage.
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Nov 8, 2012 15:01
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The idea that running Rubio would somehow win back the hearts and minds of Latino voters is absurd, though I wouldn't put it past the Republicans to assume this. If the RNC platform remains as nativist as it stands currently, then Latinos won't suddenly be fooled into thinking Rubio is fighting for them because he's got a Spanish last name. Additionally, Latinos are not a solitary voting bloc, and most come from a cultural heritage and privilege very different from Cuban-Americans. To think you can run the same bigoted policies out there and cut significantly into the minority vote because it's stamped with a big fat Rubio is cynical, to say the least. And I think it's even more cynical to suggest Latino voters will be fooled.
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Nov 8, 2012 15:03
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Others have outlined the reasons Booker won't run, but in case you were wondering, yes, he is still saving people via Twitter: Twitter posted:I can deliver baby supplies. Can u DM me your exact address? RT @_coderedd_boss I live in Oscar Miles Village and I have a 2 week old baby. Perhaps, like Huntsman's initiatives and Christie's weight loss, Booker's Twitter account will be his tea leaves.
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Nov 8, 2012 15:06
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Ragingsheep posted:As an Australian who has an interest in US politics, what's the big appeal of Hillary? In addition to what other people have said, which are important things (access to big-money donors, nostalgia, and the fact that she's proven herself on many occasions), Clinton is also a known quantity. Her primary with Obama was loving brutal, so there's basically nothing left for anyone to throw poo poo at. Every nanometer of Clinton's personal and professional life has been probed, and in many cases captured on tape, for the last 25 or so years. Not to mention that she's just a fantastic politician and campaigner. I'll be extremely disappointed if she doesn't get the nomination and win in 2016. I don't know if the Democrats are going to be able to run another Obamaesque candidate. [Edit] I didn't mean that to sound like a euphemism for "not a white guy" I meant Obamaesque as in "a young politician who has a lot of potential to be attacked." BUSH 2112 fucked around with this message at 15:09 on Nov 8, 2012 |
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Nov 8, 2012 15:07
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For the Dem nomination, I can't see anyone seriously challenging Hillary if she chooses to run. I also don't think there's a republican that can beat her - the combination of first female president + the support of Bill, Obama, and the traditional Clinton backers + the GOTV apparatus and campaign team Obama's put together seems like it would be more or less unstoppable in a general election. Biden's a great guy but he's too old (especially since men tend to suffer the effects of aging more severely and live less long than women) and wasn't really a credible challenger to Hillary in 2008; while his turn as VP will have increased his viability, the same goes for Hillary's time as SoS. However, he's apparently intent on going for it, and if Hillary doesn't run, I can see him taking the nomination by default. As for the Republicans, it all depends on how they handle the fallout from their rather crushing defeat this time round. If they double down on the crazy and finally let the nutters have their "true conservative" nominee, they may run Ryan/Jindal or something similar (intellectual heavyweight True Conservative and an ethnic minority! how could they possibly lose??!). If the moderates/establishment republicans finally regain control of the party, they'll probably go with Rubio or Christie. While I think Hillary would beat their nominee whichever route they chose, I could see a reformed party spearheaded by Rubio/Christie mounting a credible challenge against Biden or the rest of the Democratic field, so I'd prefer it if the Republicans stayed crazy for another cycle.
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Nov 8, 2012 15:38
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I was originally an O'Malley-2016 supporter until his DNC speech this year. As was said earlier in the thread, he has the resume for success, but he doesn't have the flare or the backing Hillary (or even Biden) and doesn't give the Dems anything they don't already have in the EC. I fully expect at least one minority or female on the Dem ticket either way. So, if Biden goes for it, I could see Gillibrand, Warren, or one of the Castros getting the VP slot. If Hillary gets it, I can see Cuomo or O'Malley getting the VP slot. In fact, I would probably say Cuomo is the best possible choice for VP since he has the background and the financial connections without any of it being damaging to the top of the ticket. The Republicans is completely up in the air to me with the only caveat being Christie will get it if he wants it. If he stays governor, I have no idea.
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Nov 8, 2012 16:08
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AlternateNu posted:I was originally an O'Malley-2016 supporter until his DNC speech this year. As was said earlier in the thread, he has the resume for success, but he doesn't have the flare or the backing Hillary (or even Biden) and doesn't give the Dems anything they don't already have in the EC. I fully expect at least one minority or female on the Dem ticket either way. So, if Biden goes for it, I could see Gillibrand, Warren, or one of the Castros getting the VP slot. If Hillary gets it, I can see Cuomo or O'Malley getting the VP slot.
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Nov 8, 2012 16:12
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N. Senada posted:What's the real chance that Rand Paul would make it through the primaries? I know he's got "Tea Party" support, but I don't see how he is viable on the national scene. Would his father have any impact on this? I think the GOP confirmed this year they give no shits about the Paul name, Rand has no chance unless he gets establishment as gently caress and at that point he wont have the tea party support. So unless he manages to stand on his own 2 feet as a politician without the tea party gimmick he's as high as he is ever going to get. mcmagic posted:No he won't. The crazy base HATES him now and he'll never get through a primary. He's Jon Huntsman 2.0. The base will forget about it over the next few years... until its brought right back up again in the primaries where everyone tries to label Christie as a liberal shill RINO. Unless there is a huge pivot by the GOP and the Fox news messaging machine becomes a lot more leftist then he is hosed. Spaceman Future! fucked around with this message at 16:30 on Nov 8, 2012 |
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Nov 8, 2012 16:28
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jeffersonlives posted:Warren gets a free shot at 2016 if she so desires, she's not up for reelection until 2018. Massachusetts essentially elects senators for life anyways outside of super-weird situations (which was why defeating Brown was such a big priority), that seat is her's as long as she wants it no matter what else she chooses to do. While I adore Warren, I don't see her running for president. She seemed somewhat uncomfortable with the whole campaining for Senate thing (even though she did get better at it). Hopeful she'll be an actual strong progressive voice in the Senate though. Also, I am so happy that after last night, we will (should?  ) never have to hear Joe Lieberman's whiny, Droopy Dogg voice again.  e: XyrlocShammypants posted:I've considered that the real surprise the Democrats could throw at the Republicans is a Woman/Woman ticket. Something like Hillary Clinton/Wasserman Schultz. Are you kidding? The Democrats need to keep Wasserman Schultz as far away from any camera as humanly possible, let alone a national ticket. She is the only Democrat that I can think of that lied in interviews during this cycle, or blatantly distorted facts. And when she was called on it, she would double down. It was like watching a Republican in reverse. richardfun fucked around with this message at 16:44 on Nov 8, 2012 |
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Nov 8, 2012 16:32
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Spaceman Future! posted:The base will forget about it over the next few years... until its brought right back up again in the primaries where everyone tries to label Christie as a liberal shill RINO. Unless there is a huge pivot by the GOP and the Fox news messaging machine becomes a lot more leftist then he is hosed. As long as Ailes is willing to forgive and forget (he really wanted Christie to run in '012) he won't get any flak from the media machine. His opponents may dredge it up on the fringier sites, but if Fox is backing him, it won't get any traction.
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Nov 8, 2012 16:44
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mcmagic posted:No he won't. The crazy base HATES him now and he'll never get through a primary. He's Jon Huntsman 2.0. The crazy base is shrinking and needs to be marginalized anyways for the GOP to have a realistic shot in 2016. Getting someone who pisses off the crazies will be the best barometer of how far the GOP Civil War has resulted in a swing to the middle.
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Nov 8, 2012 17:03
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I've said it once, I'll say it again. Amy Klobuchar is going to be the democratic nominee in 2016. Of course, if she does run her hardest challenge would be getting through the primaries. If she can do that the rest would be a cakewalk because she's the most likable candidate you will find anywhere.
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Nov 8, 2012 17:17
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ManifunkDestiny posted:The crazy base is shrinking and needs to be marginalized anyways for the GOP to have a realistic shot in 2016. Getting someone who pisses off the crazies will be the best barometer of how far the GOP Civil War has resulted in a swing to the middle. It's not shrinking at all, if anything it's growing and there is enough of an infrastructure of people who live off it, from most the GOP house caucas to Rove and other right wing conn men/political consultants to media outlets like the daily caller and the free beacon to limbaugh and beck for them to be able to moderate. They created a monster that the money grubbed media Peggy Noonan, David Frum or Matt Dowd types who are talking moderating the party won't be able to kill.
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Nov 8, 2012 17:30
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Pleasant Friend posted:What's the prospect for a celebrity candidate to attempt a run? Someone like Oprah Winfrey has the money and name recognition I imagine to make a legitimate challenge if they wanted to run. Realistically, a celebrity candidate who didn't get into politics independently is unlikely to ever get a serious bid at the office of President. I think the closest we've had to a real celebrity president other than war heroes was Reagan, and Reagan had spent years in politics independent of being a cowboy actor.
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Nov 8, 2012 17:33
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mcmagic posted:No he won't. The crazy base HATES him now and he'll never get through a primary. He's Jon Huntsman 2.0. They will forget this by 2016. If Christie wants to run, he'll do some batshit pandering to the more conservative wing of the party and will then just verbally slap down anyone who tries to call him a RINO in the primary. He's charismatic enough to pull it off.
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Nov 8, 2012 17:37
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marchantia posted:They will forget this by 2016. If Christie wants to run, he'll do some batshit pandering to the more conservative wing of the party and will then just verbally slap down anyone who tries to call him a RINO in the primary. He's charismatic enough to pull it off. He will not be able to overcome the ad's with these Obama pictures and quotes from conservatives saying he helped Obama win.
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Nov 8, 2012 17:38
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mcmagic posted:He will not be able to overcome the ad's with these Obama pictures and quotes from conservatives saying he helped Obama win. It all depends. If the Republican base triples-down on the crazy, he's toast. If over the next four years there's an awakening to reality in some form or fashion, he's got a GREAT shot because he now has impeccable bipartisanship credentials. The other side is that if the Republican base triples-down, no Republican candidate could win anyway because of demographic shifts. So Christie's stand with Obama was smart politics.
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Nov 8, 2012 17:41
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:It all depends. If the Republican base triples-down on the crazy, he's toast. If over the next four years there's an awakening to reality in some form or fashion, he's got a GREAT shot because he now has impeccable bipartisanship credentials. They are already talking about holding the country hostage for the debt ceiling again and doubling down on the norquist pledge. They can't moderate. On the other hand there is no way he'll lose his reelect in NJ. mcmagic fucked around with this message at 17:51 on Nov 8, 2012 |
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Nov 8, 2012 17:44
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While he's not in perfect health, Christie's also only 50, and a (hypothetical) second term wouldn't end until the start of 2019. It's not impossible to imagine a situation where he sits out 2016.
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Nov 8, 2012 17:50
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Willa Rogers posted:Kamala Harris. She's pretty much an up-n-coming pol, one of the few younger and more interesting officeholders. Deborah Bowen, Califonia's SoS, is also good, and I'd love to see her run for the U.S. Senate once Boxer and Feinstein head to their crypts. I'd like to see Bowen run for US Senate too but she'll have to leave her Sec. of State position in 2014 and I'm really not aware of how influential she is with the state party to be viable should Boxer or Feinstein leave. Harris is definitely one to keep an eye on but she'll have to become governor or senator first, I think.
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Nov 8, 2012 17:53
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Bizarro Watt posted:I'd like to see Bowen run for US Senate too but she'll have to leave her Sec. of State position in 2014 and I'm really not aware of how influential she is with the state party to be viable should Boxer or Feinstein leave. If Jerry Brown opts to not run for re-election in 2014, I could very easily see Harris running and winning the primary. Maybe Brown will take one last run at the Presidency 
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Nov 8, 2012 18:06
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mcmagic posted:They are already talking about holding the country hostage for the debt ceiling again and doubling down on the norquist pledge. They can't moderate. I don't think Boehner gives a poo poo at all about what the tea party people think anymore. If he and Obama were to ultimately agree on something similar to what didn't come to fruition last time, a unified endorsement from Obama and Boehner would probably be enough to render the tea party votes irrelevant, wouldn't it? They may double down on the crazy on the far, far right, but they pretty much had their balls chopped off on Tuesday night, so does it ultimately make a difference?
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Nov 8, 2012 18:15
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Can you guys please stop assuming Elizabeth Warren is the greatest thing to ever happen? She doesn't have the personality to run for a national office. I get that she's exciting for us progressives here, but that isn't going to actually appeal to the rest of the country.
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Nov 8, 2012 18:26
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Doh004 posted:Can you guys please stop assuming Elizabeth Warren is the greatest thing to ever happen? She doesn't have the personality to run for a national office. I get that she's exciting for us progressives here, but that isn't going to actually appeal to the rest of the country. What exactly is missing from her personality that is fatal to her running for President?
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Nov 8, 2012 18:28
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ManifunkDestiny posted:What exactly is missing from her personality that is fatal to her running for President? I have social anxiety yet when I look at her speak I feel awkward for her.
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Nov 8, 2012 18:29
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ManifunkDestiny posted:What exactly is missing from her personality that is fatal to her running for President? Charisma. Energy. The ability to excite on a dime. She's great and all, but she pretty much lacks all of the intangible traits that make Obama the figure he is. In a vacuum she might be a good candidate, but she is absolutely the wrong type of person to fill Obama's shoes, IMO. She can't match his level of enthusiasm and if she did, it would probably seem really disingenuous.
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Nov 8, 2012 18:32
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ManifunkDestiny posted:What exactly is missing from her personality that is fatal to her running for President? Charisma? Look, I love the woman--I voted for her, I donated to her, and I was elated when she won. But she's not a national candidate. She's perfect for Massachusetts, but she'd get destroyed on a national stage.
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Nov 8, 2012 18:33
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ManifunkDestiny posted:What exactly is missing from her personality that is fatal to her running for President? Have you actually listened to her when she speaks? I'm not dissing what she's saying, but the delivery is often awkward and boring.
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Nov 8, 2012 18:33
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I don't buy the opinion that Mrs. Daniels personal issues make Mitch running a non-starter. He's charismatic, he's an extreme fiscal conservative yet socially fairly moderate, he's white, and he has a tenable abortion position. His problems: His wife has had some personal issues, but I think they are a relative non-starter. I don't think Democrats will pursue them. He was arrested in college for drugs. This is a minor issue. He's not a fan of same-sex marriage (he's generally socially moderate so this position might change), which will hurt with independents. No experience whatsoever with foreign policy. Staunch Obamacare opponent, if it works that will hurt him. His strengths: Fiscally responsible, makes hard cuts. This can be spun negatively ("hates education!" "in the Bush administration!"), but I'd imagine it'll be a net positive. Depending on education reform in Indiana (Tony Bennett just got ousted but his education reform in Indianapolis is bleeding-edge revolutionary with exploding charter involvement), this could be a huge bonus if education takes the forefront in '16. It also could destroy him if it fails (but I think it won't, because Indianapolis almost can't get worse then it was) Very charismatic, almost nobody dislikes him. He will connect with everyday Americans in a way almost no other candidate can. Even Democrats generally like him. Overall, I don't think he'll run anytime soon, but not for Cheri. He might take a peek in '20 if he does really well at Purdue, but by then he'll probably be too far removed from the national consciousness. I also could be completely wrong so how knows.
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Nov 8, 2012 18:36
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