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Stottie Kyek
Apr 26, 2008

fuckin egg in a bun
I think Saionji orchestrated the whole thing and Peko actually did it.

As for a motive: she agreed with Koizumi and her friend Satou (D-ko and E-ko) not to help the investigation of Kuzuryuu's sister's death, but she certainly didn't agree to cover for Satou - judging by the dialogue in Twilight Syndrome, only Koizumi knew Satou was the real killer. Incidentally I think Kuzuryuu (F-suke) noticed that and that's why he only gave his "prize" photos to Koizumi. On the island, she's really bonded with Koizumi and looked up to her, and now it turns out she's horribly betrayed her trust.

Here's what I think happened:

Kuzuryuu plays the game and gets the photos as a prize. He's angry with Koizumi so he posts the photos into her cottage with the nasty letter.
Koizumi plays the game and sees it all for herself. She arranges a meeting with Tsumiki, Saionji and Ibuki.
I think Saionji plays the game at some point too. She was so happy when "big sister" Nanami played one of the arcade games with her, she complains that Nanami plays the same old games again and again, she'll know a bit about the controls from her to figure out the code, and she's just too impulsive to resist a brand new video game. Plus she never denied playing it to Hinata.

Now Saionji knows everything, so she goes crying to the SHSL Swordswoman, whom she's been downright nice to compared to the others and who she knows is strong and good with weapons. She tells her everything, maybe convinces her to play the game to see for herself, and appeals to her sense of justice, vengeance and protecting the weak. She invites Peko along to the meeting too to confront Koizumi.
Peko knows about Kira-kira from overhearing Sonia talking about their MO (and about how Genocider Syo might be a high school kid!), so she gets the idea to plant the anime mask at the scene: it could frame Sonia and distract everyone by making them look for this Kira-kira person (I guess she thinks they leave their mask behind after each kill, wtf).
Saionji writes a letter to Peko telling her to go to the beach house at 2:30 to prepare for "the thing we talked about", ie the murder, and to avoid her for a while so they don't look suspicious. The letter wasn't for Koizumi at all - it doesn't have her name on it and it wasn't found in her postbox, so how do we know it was for her?
Peko goes to the beach house at 2:30 as per the letter (she's unaccounted for since ~1pm) and hides in the cupboard holding the mask, waiting for Koizumi. She gets a bat from the sporting supplies there to use as a weapon.

Saionji goes along to meet Koizumi. Koizumi explains the whole situation to Saionji. Maybe she tries to sugar-coat it a little, tells them they're all old friends from way back and goes easy on the gory details. Peko waits to hear Koizumi say it so she can be certain. Then when she has her back to the cupboard (it's a slatted door so Peko could see out, and perhaps Saionji is on the other side of the room luring her to stand there), she jumps out and smacks her one with the bat from behind. She blocks one of the doors with Koizumi's body to stop anyone else coming across the crime scene too early while perhaps Saionji guards the door to the beach ready to distract anyone who comes by, and Peko washes herself with the bottled water and places the mask. She leaves Saionji's note behind by accident and people think it was for Koizumi instead. But now they can't move the body back or they'll get blood on them again, so Saionji helps Peko out the window. She's small, but she's strong from dancing all the time, and Peko's tall and strong enough that it could work.

Saionji runs out crying crocodile tears, pretending she's just seen the body for the first time. Since she's not technically the killer, she counts as the first person to see it.
Peko comes into the diner with her story about swimming for three hours.
Ibuki goes to the beach house at the same time as Souda but for some reason doesn't yell. Perhaps she's too shocked - she is silent for a while, then has a (very) delayed reaction when Hinata talks to her. She was the second person to see the body.
Souda goes to the beach house and screams. He's the third person to see the body and Monobear's alarm goes off.
Hinata goes to investigate and finds Ibuki is already there - at least, that's what it looks like reading the LP, please correct me if I've got the wrong end of the stick!

Stottie Kyek fucked around with this message at 04:19 on Aug 1, 2013

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Stottie Kyek
Apr 26, 2008

fuckin egg in a bun

LukanFox posted:

Oh, and Ibuki definitely isn't the third witness. Take a look at the scene where you enter the beach-house after hearing the announcement again: Souda is there and Ibuki isn't. It's made pretty clear that Ibuki arrived after Hinata did. I'm convinced that the order is Kuzuryuu, Saionji, Souda.

Aah, good point, thanks, I didn't catch that! I was thinking a lot about the footprints and how one other person (ie not Saionji or Souda) managed to see the body without leaving prints going out - I'm still not sure how that was done unless they brushed them away with a palm frond or something, somehow without being seen by all and sundry, or if Saionji really wasn't involved after all.

Hazdoc posted:

The only other person I'd suspect, which I'm actually growing more suspicious about more and more, is Nanami. We know she played the game, which gives her the information necessary to have positioned the body the way it was. She also had the opportunity to kill. On top of that, she's been acting awfully perky compared to how she usually operates (half asleep). She was the one to first notice the footsteps, and she's been very interested in the investigation so far, pushing hard that somebody connected to the game had to be the killer.
Also, something else I noticed is that she was interested in how Komaeda was doing prior to the murder. Perhaps she went and freed him, or got Monomi to free him, and then had him collaborate with her to commit the murder.

This is also a very plausible idea. I wonder what's in her bag.
Also Komaeda is the only one who (he says) will assist a murder and cover for someone the whole way - anyone else would grass the real murderer up so that the whole class doesn't get executed. Assuming the killer really did leave by the window and someone helped them out he probably was involved.

Just had a thought: with the climbing through the window thing, it's not necessarily true that someone has to be left behind. A climbs on B's shoulders carrying a rope. A climbs onto the roof and ties the rope to something (possibly the window bars) then B climbs up it, A helps them out the window, they untie the rope and both jump down, taking it with them. Nanami got to play with a skipping rope for the first time with Koizumi a while back IIRC so we know there are some on the island. That didn't come up in the investigation though so it was probably just an irrelevant wee side conversation.

Stottie Kyek
Apr 26, 2008

fuckin egg in a bun

Little_wh0re posted:

The Sonia arguement doesn't work because changing is not allowed in the beech hut.

Technically it could also be Nanami did it then stripped down, but the water bottles suggest Peko.

If I was going to guess how I'd say she just planned to avoid leaving footprints in the sand and took a rope or otherwise had something like that ready so she could get out of the window

Nanami is carrying a bag to the beach. I wonder if there's a towel in it? It wouldn't be a strange thing to take to the beach on a swimming trip, and she could have dried off with it after using the water bottles.

edit: ^ coo er a Molesworth avatar i mean to say gosh. I loved those books, I'd forgotten all about them!

Stottie Kyek fucked around with this message at 00:39 on Aug 4, 2013

Stottie Kyek
Apr 26, 2008

fuckin egg in a bun
The name Satou was in the credits of the game, along with all the other people who corresponded to the characters.

Stottie Kyek
Apr 26, 2008

fuckin egg in a bun

mangoman321 posted:

Honestly, I think Peko is the most suspicious now, but with Mikan talking about understanding the feelings of a killer, I get the urge to create a theory where she's the culprit for this case. To start with, we've been basically ignoring the possibility that she and Ibuki could be the culprits, since they showed up together before the beach party. But when I went to look back at it, Mikan had a really odd line that I don't think was ever explained. This is when Hinata and Naegi are chatting with Kuzuryuu outside, and Ibuki and Mikan show up:


What was she going on about here? Is she directing this at Kuzuryuu? Could it have something to do with the content of the game? It's not explicitly stated that F-suke killed E-ko in the game, what if somehow Ibuki and Mikan's characters (A-ko and C-ko, I think?) were the actual killers, and planned on killing D-ko next? There's been talk of needing an accomplice to get through the window to the beach house, perhaps these two worked together? The killer was in her swimsuit, killed Koizumi, washed off with the water bottles, planted the evidence to frame Saionji, then changed into her regular clothes somewhere outside the beach house, then walked together to the meeting with her accomplice. Afterwards, Mikan "finds" the letter on Koizumi's body, when she actually planted it all along. Not sure where the mask fits in - maybe Mikan herself is Kirakira-chan?

Honestly, this is a stretch, but I think we've been a bit too hasty in looking away from these two.

I don't think she killed Koizumi, but if Kirakira is among the group I can definitely see it being Mikan. She's always so apologetic and afraid that everyone hates her. I'm willing to bet the poor kid's been bullied badly and often, and a lot of bullying victims have revenge fantasies or want to get justice for other victims, and she may have taken that too far. She knows a lot about medicine and the human body too, she could bump people off fairly easily.

Stottie Kyek
Apr 26, 2008

fuckin egg in a bun

mangoman321 posted:

Another, considerably more ridiculous explanation could hinge on how the discovery of the footprints was relayed. By the time the footprints were discovered, a number of people had already entered the beach house from the beach side, all presumably leaving their own set of footprints. What was noticed was that only one set of footprints was leading AWAY from the entrance; no one mentioned or counted how many footprints were leading INTO the house. If the killer exited the beach house and walked backwards, the footprints they left behind would appear to be walking towards the house, not away. This seems too silly to take seriously, and besides, since it's Peko we most suspect right now, the former explanation is more than sufficient.

For an even more ridiculous but plausible explanation, they could've strapped their shoes on backwards and walked normally, so no one would notice them doing a silly backwards walk from a distance. But I think only Nidai's geta could be done up like that, and Owari gives him an alibi - the two of them could easily have done it together (Owari smacks Koizumi with the bat and sets up the scene since she's easily strong enough, Nidai puts her out the window and he troddles off in his backwards shoes) but then there's really no need for them to cover for each other afterwards or even for them both to be there in the first place unless Owari anticipated the footprints thing that far in advance and chose Nidai as an accomplice for his shoes.

As for serious theories, I'm now certain that there really was an accomplice in this case. Because Monobear's rule says the announcement happens when three or more people discover a dead body, so I'm trying to work out who the first person to see the body was and how they got in and out without leaving footprints. I assume Saionji didn't see the body and set it up in the Twilight Syndrome pose by the door, for lots of reasons, and we know Souda didn't because Hinata was right behind him. So whoever the first person to see the body was, they couldn't have left by the blocked door. They didn't yell or return to fetch the others like Souda; why not? Unless they were involved somehow and didn't want to incriminate themselves. They didn't leave by the only clear exit like Saionji (which they would do if they had nothing to hide), so they must have come prepared with a tool to get out the window, or they and the killer helped each other out the window like in tiistai's drawing (or Nidai was calm and clear-headed enough to do the Backwards Shoe Shuffle) so either way they were involved somehow.

Komaeda is the only one who's said he would help and protect a killer, though there are other reasons someone might be an accomplice, e.g. they're not sure which one actually did the killing (doubtful, since Koizumi died from one blow), one is willing to die for the other (can't think of anyone who would do that, Sonia and Kuzuryuu are very commanding and could make promises to support their surviving relatives or something, but I don't think even they could convince anyone to sacrifice themselves).

I can only think of two theories that allow for there to be no accomplice, one serious and one silly.
The serious theory: the killer actually counts as one of the three "discoverers" - while that doesn't make much sense semantically, this is only the second case and in the first case lots of people saw the body at once so we have nothing to confirm or contradict that. (edit: if this is true, there is definitely no accomplice, because we know Saionji and Souda saw the body, so this could be very useful in future cases.)
The silly theory: the water bottles were the murder weapon, poured out long before 3PM to make a slip hazard, and the killer faked the letter from Saionji to make sure only Koizumi would show up and fall over. Then someone else (Kuzuryuu, or whoever Kirakira is, would have reason to) took advantage of it and posed the body like Twilight Syndrome. It's so unlikely that she would have a fatal fall though... unless perhaps SHSL Good Luck Komaeda did it... :haw:

I really hope Nidai wasn't involved, he's my favourite character. I can't think of a single occasion in everyday life when a pep talk or a cheer from him wouldn't be appreciated. Once this is finished and I can freely Google DR2 without seeing spoilers, I might see if I can find a Nidai figure or merchandise for my desk to cheer me on during particularly long and tough days at work. :3:

Stottie Kyek fucked around with this message at 22:17 on Aug 20, 2013

Stottie Kyek
Apr 26, 2008

fuckin egg in a bun
I'm wondering if someone might have used a skipping rope. Ropes made for skipping usually have wooden or plastic handles that could be used as a weight for throwing the end up high or to help keep the knot secure, or they could have tied a Chinese top to it and made a grappling hook. Koizumi invited Nanami to play with skipping ropes and Chinese tops in front of everyone at breakfast the day before and said there were lots in the supermarket, so everyone would've known about them.

Or they could use the skipping rope + Chinese top assembly as a hook to pull up an object they're standing on like Penakoto suggested.

Assuming the culprit sent the fake Saionji letter, they knew Koizumi was going to be at the beach house at a set time, so they could've tied a rope to the window strut or the top of the bars from outside and left it dangling down into the shower room for them to climb up after they killed her. There's no reason to go into the shower room, after all, it's out of order, so it probably wouldn't be discovered. Then they climb up onto the roof, which looks like it has a shallow enough slope to stand on, untie the skipping rope and take it with them.

Question for orenronen: is the word they use for "Chinese top" taketombo? I just want to check if they're talking about something like a little dreidel or spinning-top, or something like a wooden helicopter blade that could be used as a grapple.

Stottie Kyek
Apr 26, 2008

fuckin egg in a bun

W.T. Fits posted:

People keep insisting that it has to be Peko who was the killer and Kuzuryuu was the first to discover the body.

Has anyone considered it might be the other way around? Kuzuryuu did the actual killing, but left it to Peko to Togami the crime scene to throw suspicion off him?

Posing the body like in Twilight Syndrome would make Kuzuryuu look more suspicious though, wouldn't it? Since the game's all about him wanting revenge for his sister. Unless Peko was pulling a Togami and was only involved in leaving the anime mask to make it look like Kirakira did it. But then the body would already be blocking the door and she'd have had to have entered the beach house through the window, and without knowing it's a murder scene beforehand she has no reason to do that.

Stottie Kyek
Apr 26, 2008

fuckin egg in a bun
If Peko really did it alone then we still don't know who the other person to see the body was, or why they would stroll past, come in through the window (the only entrance that won't leave footprints), have a quick shufty at the body, then climb back out the window and not mention it to anyone. That's why I think she's talking mince, for whatever reason.

Perhaps she's willing to be executed along with everyone else to let the real culprit get off the island to do something really important - if there's other people she cares about outside, Kuzuryuu or Sonia is rich and powerful enough to set them up for life, and after all the weird poo poo he's said in the trial, Kuzuryuu is definitely involved somehow.

Stottie Kyek
Apr 26, 2008

fuckin egg in a bun

Van Dine posted:

That seems to fit quite well with what we know of Hinata from the first update of the game. It's clear that unless what he remembered there was fake, he had finally got into the main Hope's Peak school, and he outright says that he got there under unusual circumstances, although he also says that it wasn't a big deal. It would be an unusual circumstance for somebody to actually transfer from the prep school to the main school, given that the system was never intended to actually do that. Hinata might not be aware that the system was rigged, but he would probably still know that it was rare to get into Hope's Peak via the prep school.


But the above bit of Hinata's thoughts is strange as hell. It does mention "talent" so it's possible that hints to his talent are in there, but the most prominent thing in there seems to be "nonIndividuality" and "individualitybroken". That might be of the most use in terms of an extreme acting-related talent, but Hinata in the rest of the game so far hasn't displayed the sort of exaggerated method acting taking on of other people's traits or lack of individuality that might be associated with that. There doesn't seem to be an indication that he has a talent-copying skill either.

Perhaps a SHSL spy/infiltrator type? I'd thought it just referred to his memories being wiped out, but there could be something in that.

Stottie Kyek
Apr 26, 2008

fuckin egg in a bun
I wish I could go looking for DR2 merchandise without risking seeing spoilers, I'd love to buy a wee Nidai item of some kind. Work has been hectic lately, and a little Nidai on my desk cheering me on to FINISH THOSE SPREADSHEEEEETS would be the best thing when I'm starting to flag at the end of the day.

Stottie Kyek
Apr 26, 2008

fuckin egg in a bun
I'd be pretty wary of a guy who could train his hamsters that well. He has access to anywhere a hamster can go and anything he can train the hamster to interact with. If there's a hole in the skirting board in someone's cottage he could get a hamster to, say, drop off some poison or something nasty while he's off hanging out with everyone else and making his alibi. Or get them to destroy evidence - if he'd done the last murder he could've had the hamsters turn Koizumi's letter into nesting material without suspicion. It's daft, but it's Dangan Ronpa after all.

Stottie Kyek
Apr 26, 2008

fuckin egg in a bun
So Hinata's sleeping in his cottage by the hotel complex, though Mioda broke the lock on it earlier? Not borrowing a key from Mikan or one of the patients to stay in their cottage instead?

I wonder if the lock thing was just a joke or if it'll come up. Presumably the hospital and music club are all open but the motel bedrooms will probably have locks.

Stottie Kyek
Apr 26, 2008

fuckin egg in a bun
He'd be Necromaru Nidai.

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Stottie Kyek
Apr 26, 2008

fuckin egg in a bun
It's interesting that that's another two members of the Twilight Syndrome cast dead. If Mikan didn't do it, she'd better be careful next chapter, she's now the only one left alive out of the group who helped cover up Kuzuryuu's sister's murder. Which would suggest Kuzuryuu (though I don't see how or when he could have done it) or indeed Sonia after all her ramblings about serial killers and "justice" for revenge, or Mikan as revenge for Saionji and Ibuki pressuring her into keeping quiet. I'd be surprised if the motive is the same as the previous chapter, but it's the first thing that struck me about the choice of victims.

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