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Previous thread and 2012 Regular Season Champions. It's time for the postseason, and that means Eliminator, Pickem, and degenerate Funbuck addictions get to carry over into 2013! Shake off that hangover and get to betting! This is the first year SAS Eliminator has supported postseason play. Everything is basically the same, except for Eliminator. Eliminator rules are identical, but since the pool of available teams drops in half every week there will need to be new strategies developed. For example, if you pick the two best teams too early and those teams meet in the Super Bowl you won't be able to pick either of them since you've already used them. Conversely, Reverse Eliminator is likely to be a significantly easier mode. Discuss. New Players SAS Eliminator is a free site that supports 9 different games related to the NFL. You can play eliminator, pickem, variants of the previous two (spread, reverse, etc), and even funbuck mode, a full gambling system with fake money. Check out the main page for more extensive descriptions or just register already. I spent hundreds (thousands? probably, drat it.) of hours on this thing! You'll hurt my feelings if you don't.
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| # ? Jan 1, 2013 17:27 |
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| # ? May 21, 2013 22:07 |
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I would have put this in the other thread but Rura isn't the only one who took a bath. Looks like bookies are going to have to move into the statistical age.
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| # ? Jan 1, 2013 18:14 |
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Lorini posted:I would have put this in the other thread but Rura isn't the only one who took a bath. Looks like bookies are going to have to move into the statistical age. That reminds me. Here are the funbuck regular season statistics: Players 288 Total Bets 12,492 Total Won 3,133,235.99 Total Lost -3,056,513.14 Net Won 76,722.85 Buck Supply (Total bucks available for wagering) 1,694,386.50 This, of course, means the house lost 76.7k for the regular season. Now for the individual bet type breakdowns: Spread Bets 4,628 Amount Won 916,722.39 Amount Lost -993,748.59 Net Amount Won -77,026.20 Moneyline Bets 2,600 Amount Won 386,715.85 Amount Lost -480,885.99 Net Amount Won -94,170.14 Over/Under Bets 1,554 Amount Won 264,443.51 Amount Lost -326,813.93 Net Amount Won -62,370.42 Parlay Bets 3,710 Amount Won 1,565,354.24 Amount Lost -1,255,064.63 Net Amount Won 310,289.61 Yep, you read that right. Parlay paid out over 300k more than it took in. Why? A few probable reasons: 1) Spread + moneyline connected parlays were not blocked initially (and spread + o/u connected parlays are still not blocked) 2) Funbuck offers "true" odds. This means the system directly multiplies the offered odds for each element of the parlay rather than biasing them further in the favor of the house. 3) Bookies, as noted by Lorini, took a bath this year. Eliminator sources its lines from Pinnacle, a sportsbook (nominally) based out of Curacao.
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| # ? Jan 1, 2013 18:31 |
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Rura Penthe posted:Eliminator rules are identical, but since the pool of available teams drops in half every week there will need to be new strategies developed. For example, if you pick the two best teams too early and those teams meet in the Super Bowl you won't be able to pick either of them since you've already used them. Conversely, Reverse Eliminator is likely to be a significantly easier mode. Discuss. Wait, assuming that you've picked the Championship round correctly, you couldn't pick either team in the Super Bowl, meaning a 4-0 is actually impossible. Edit: nevermind, that's not right. It just means that you have only 1 team you can pick in the Super Bowl.
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| # ? Jan 1, 2013 18:47 |
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Magicpants posted:Wait, assuming that you've picked the Championship round correctly, you couldn't pick either team in the Super Bowl, meaning a 4-0 is actually impossible. You only have to pick one game per week, so in the championship games you will have to pick a team you expect to go to the Super Bowl (but lose it).
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| # ? Jan 1, 2013 18:48 |
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Rura Penthe posted:That reminds me. Here are the funbuck regular season statistics: Rura, do you also have the win/loss % for each type of bet? I was wondering this for my own bets too. Do you think you could add it to the list of profile stats, next to biggest win/biggest loss? I'm also curious about the house funbucks stats by week. It seems like there were just 2 or 3 fluke weeks this year where the house (and Vegas) got cleaned out.
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| # ? Jan 1, 2013 21:18 |
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Just a question, but is the Eliminator site ever gonna have support for 1KOB? It seems like a game that could really benefit from automated stat culling instead of having to be done in a spreadsheet by whoever feels masochistic that year.
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| # ? Jan 1, 2013 21:32 |
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Devonaut posted:Rura, do you also have the win/loss % for each type of bet? I was wondering this for my own bets too. Do you think you could add it to the list of profile stats, next to biggest win/biggest loss? Bet winning percentages across the field are as follows: Spread: 46.6% Moneyline: 50.9% Over/Under: 49.2% Parlay: 16.0% I've also just deployed an addition to user profiles that adds the info you requested. Just go to your profile and look at the funbuck tab and the individual bet type tabs have it. House funbuck stats by week are doable but I'll have to think about how to pull those out easily. There were definitely only a few weeks that wiped out the house. For example, week 17 the house made ~200k, but week 16 (I think) was just brutal. Edit: Here is the house profit by week: 1 19,325.37 2 124,675.21 3 29,847.76 4 -29,436.42 5 106,150.39 6 -58,074.12 7 -25,389.07 8 74,653.53 9 -302,578.75 <-- bloodbath! 10 118,446.49 11 -124,157.69 12 -134,957.59 13 156,626.09 14 119,390.85 15 -33,299.47 16 -331,090.54 <-- bloodbath! 17 213,145.11 <-- bloodbath in the house's favor! Philip Rivers posted:Just a question, but is the Eliminator site ever gonna have support for 1KOB? It seems like a game that could really benefit from automated stat culling instead of having to be done in a spreadsheet by whoever feels masochistic that year. I'm not sure if 1kob makes sense to directly integrate into this site (which is frankly bursting at the seams with game types as it is). If I can think of a way to do it without messing up the UI and the data model (unlikely) it's possible, but otherwise it would make more sense to build it as a separate site. The other big obstacle to automating 1kob is that it requires fantasy-level data. By that I mean it would need a reliable source for (preferably realtime) per-player statistics. Not screen scraping either. Rura Penthe fucked around with this message at Jan 1, 2013 around 22:29 |
| # ? Jan 1, 2013 22:19 |
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Could probably trim a few game types, reverse eliminator is different than eliminator since you cannot follow a lousy team around, but reverse pickem and reverse spread pickem are no different than normal pickem/spread pickem. Assuming you are not picking the same team to win and lose your record should end up exactly the same.
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| # ? Jan 1, 2013 23:47 |
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Several of the games don't have strategic differences, but there are some people who like to play them. I'll be thinking about whether to remove Reverse Pickem/Reverse Spread Pickem in the offseason though. BTW, I just pushed some new code to auto-disable parlays that aren't allowed (spread+moneyline on the same game) or are impossible to win (like betting both sides of the same spread). It's relatively complex UI code so if anybody runs into bugs please let me know browser+how to reproduce it so I can get it fixed.
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| # ? Jan 2, 2013 15:35 |
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Rura Penthe posted:Several of the games don't have strategic differences, but there are some people who like to play them. I'll be thinking about whether to remove Reverse Pickem/Reverse Spread Pickem in the offseason though. I like Reverse Spread Pickem because nobody played it and I was tops or near it for a little while during the season. e: also sometimes I did pick the same team in reverse and normal pickem Zorkon fucked around with this message at Jan 2, 2013 around 23:26 |
| # ? Jan 2, 2013 23:23 |
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Maybe I'll not be so poo poo in postseason.
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| # ? Jan 2, 2013 23:35 |
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Rura Penthe posted:Bet winning percentages across the field are as follows: That's really interesting. Thanks for posting the data and for adding my funbucks % win feature request.
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| # ? Jan 3, 2013 23:40 |
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quote:Eliminator postseason rules are the same, but remember, you can run out of teams if you pick unwisely! If you have no teams remaining you will be unable to bet and will be eliminated. There should be a special prize for anyone who correctly picks all 3 pre-SB weeks and includes both super bowl contenders in those 3 picks.  Mostly because I think that'll be me. 
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| # ? Jan 4, 2013 01:18 |
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Thanks again for creating and running this site (and reminding me why I shouldn't gamble on sports). Any thoughts on doing prop bets for the Super Bowl?
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| # ? Jan 6, 2013 15:29 |
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The Zack posted:Thanks again for creating and running this site (and reminding me why I shouldn't gamble on sports). I would love to do propositions, but the tricky part there is figuring out an automated way to determine who won the bet so I'm not forced to spend all my time updating the bet databases manually. For example, here's a current prop bet for Colts @ Ravens: Will there be a score in 1st 7:30 of 1st quarter? Since, in general, you get score at the current point in time (or final), it's tricky to find a data source that can tell you what the score was at a specific time. So I'd need to find a place I can get that info, then I'd need to do the same for essentially an unlimited # of other possible prop bets (Longest TD will be how many yards?). It's more doable for just the Super Bowl since I could just do it manually that one time, but it's unlikely for this season (I still have to build the entire infrastructure to support it).
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| # ? Jan 6, 2013 17:09 |
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Damnit there went my parlay 
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| # ? Jan 7, 2013 00:19 |
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Lorini posted:Damnit there went my parlay Had the skins too?
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| # ? Jan 7, 2013 00:38 |
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Danica! posted:Had the skins too? Yup
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| # ? Jan 7, 2013 00:39 |
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Holy poo poo I actually picked the Seahawks! Shame about my reverse eliminator but at least I'm still in it for one of them.
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| # ? Jan 7, 2013 00:50 |
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Gawd the Atlanta/Seattle game is opening with a spread of 1?! I know ATL has never won a playoff game with the current coach but a 1 spread? Really?
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| # ? Jan 7, 2013 01:05 |
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Lorini posted:Gawd the Atlanta/Seattle game is opening with a spread of 1?! I know ATL has never won a playoff game with the current coach but a 1 spread? Really? Seahawks are the flavor of the moment. It'll probably move to ATL -2 or -3.
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| # ? Jan 7, 2013 03:02 |
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Since this will likely never happen again: 1st place this week in Funbucks. 
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| # ? Jan 7, 2013 06:26 |
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Perfect on the Pickem, And I got through on Eliminator (Ravens) and Reverse Eliminator (Colts) Let's go 8-0! Pretty confident in my picks, but the Atlanta/Seattle one scares me a bit. 
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| # ? Jan 7, 2013 06:37 |
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kalensc posted:Since this will likely never happen again: 1st place this week in Funbucks. I got 2nd drat i want to know how it feels to be on top.
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| # ? Jan 7, 2013 08:19 |
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Kampfy Von Wafflehaus posted:I got 2nd Just make a bunch of dumb parlays and sooner or later you'll have a huge week. edit: Or you could put everything on Seattle +1...whatever
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| # ? Jan 8, 2013 01:21 |
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Wildcard round funbuck data: House profit: 135,223.92 Risked: 489,489.41 Bets: 324 House is back in the black for the season! Keep gaming!
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| # ? Jan 8, 2013 16:18 |
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Switched my eliminator and reverse eliminator picks to Seattle and Atlanta. I got a bad feeling about this. But I just don't trust Manning in the cold.
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| # ? Jan 12, 2013 02:29 |
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Rura Penthe posted:Wildcard round funbuck data: Yeah like half of that was mine >.>
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| # ? Jan 12, 2013 04:57 |
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Rura Penthe posted:Wildcard round funbuck data: This might be a bit misleading, since people are probably going nuttier with bets with the season over soon and no reason to hang on to funbucks.
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| # ? Jan 12, 2013 05:03 |
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TheBuckmister posted:This might be a bit misleading, since people are probably going nuttier with bets with the season over soon and no reason to hang on to funbucks. Yeah, there have been some enormous and ill-advised wagers. We'll always have that issue obviously, although hardcore funbuck mode next year might mitigate it.
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| # ? Jan 12, 2013 17:34 |
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Oh well there went another parlay. At least I didn't have to sweat the weekend. 
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| # ? Jan 13, 2013 01:57 |
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I initially picked Denver for Eliminator and Baltimore for Reverse... Good thing I switched to Atlanta and Seattle 
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| # ? Jan 13, 2013 02:05 |
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I can't believe I bet against the Flac. 
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| # ? Jan 13, 2013 02:13 |
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sildenafil posted:I initially picked Denver for Eliminator and Baltimore for Reverse... Same here. Unfortunately, I didn't change my parlays. Well thats 750 funbux down the drain.
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| # ? Jan 13, 2013 04:19 |
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Stupid broncos blowing my "all home teams" parlay. Time for my Seahawks + 2 overs parlay!
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| # ? Jan 13, 2013 04:28 |
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Lorini posted:Gawd the Atlanta/Seattle game is opening with a spread of 1?! I know ATL has never won a playoff game with the current coach but a 1 spread? Really? This is why I can only play with funbucks.
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| # ? Jan 13, 2013 21:38 |
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Lorini posted:This is why I can only play with funbucks. I had them at both -1 and -3. Sadly I had way more money on -3.
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| # ? Jan 13, 2013 22:36 |
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Somehow I'm 3-0 ATS this week. C'mon, Pats...
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| # ? Jan 13, 2013 23:43 |
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| # ? May 21, 2013 22:07 |
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I have 49ers, Ravens and New England left in my eliminator. I think strategy wise I have to take the 49ers and then take the afc in the stuperbowl. It don't look like the Falcons can stop a running QB. If Pete Carol wasn't an idiot I would already be eliminated.
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| # ? Jan 14, 2013 13:55 |
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