|
Hello Everyone! Last year we had a thread dedicated to analyzing and discussing the 2011 NFL CBA and the NFL salary cap, looking at a number of teams and how their cap situation might affect their goals and moves in 2012. Documents were examined, arguments were had, people got really angry about hypothetical nonsense—a good time was had by all. This year I thought I’d take a different approach. Having discussed the basics last year, I figured this year we’d make it a little more interesting and look at applying that knowledge, and give everyone a shot at getting some new hand-drawn avatars. So I present to you, The First Ever “You Be the GM Then, rear end in a top hat” Contest Thread. Each week, I’ll post a new scenario (each based on an NFL team) and invite you goons to look at the team’s situation and post a proposal or plan for improving the team and taking it through to the start of the 2013 NFL season. We’ll start with some easier situations (where little accounting is required) and move on to trickier ones (such as teams over the cap). But this contest isn’t just for pride! Your submissions will be judged by a panel of your goon peers. The highest-scoring submissions for each team will get custom avatars of any NFL player they want, courtesy of yours truly. It's a lovely prize, I know, but half the fun(?) is struggling with the massive problems created by trying to game the system with signing bonuses only to find out that you overpaid for Jay Ratliff and now your team is hosed. The Rules What’s a contest without some rules, though? Here’s the scenario: Each week I’ll be posting a new team, with information for that team. Specifically, I’ll be providing a list of that team’s contracts, bonuses, and free agents. Your job is to put yourself in the shoes of the team GM, and make the necessary personnel decisions to get that team to a 53-man roster with a full coaching staff for the start of the 2013 season, write that down, and submit it in a post. Generally, you’ll want your submission to have each of the following: - Coaching Decisions Some teams need to hire new coaches and coordinators. If you’re working on one of these teams, you’re going to want to have those coaches in place. You don’t have to fill out a full personnel chart, but you do have to make sure that your team has a head coach, and a plan or person to be your offensive and defensive coordinators (your HC can also occupy one of those two slots, but if that’s the case you need to state that). If you want to go nuts and list your pick for defensive backs coach though, then by all means do so. - Free Agency Hires Each team has free agents, some of whom need to be retained and others who should be allowed to walk. You’ll want to present a plan for who you’re keeping and what you’re willing to pay for them. I’ll include some basic contract info for you to go off of if you aren’t familiar with how contracts work or what the market value for certain players is. - The Draft You’ll also want a draft plan for each team. We’re providing a mock draft in this thread for you to use, courtesy of the crazy people over at Walter Sports, who have mocked up the first four rounds already. You can use the picks listed, or make your own selections, but you generally should assume that players will be taken in that order around your picks (more on assumptions later). After round 4, just pick players as you like, with notes on who they are (no one has any idea what will happen after round 4 in the draft). You do not need to create contracts for your rookies! Teams are capped at what they can spend on their drafted rookies (the rookie salary pool), a number which will be provided to you with each challenge. So just figure out who you want, and make sure you kept the cap room to pay them. - Depth Chart For each team, I’ll provide a depth chart for you to fill out with your final roster. Make sure you’ve filled every important position (with depth!) - Contract Terms For each player you sign, you’ll need to give them a contract. Players don’t play for free, and most won’t sign one-year deals if they can avoid it. As you pick players to sign for your proposal, think about the terms they’re likely to require. I’ve included some basic numbers for most of the market free agents to help you out. Also note that you don’t just want to load up on this year—some contract decisions can make things harder down the road! (Something we’ll be judging on) - An Explanation Once you’ve laid out what you’re going to do, it’s a good idea to run us through your methods—why did you make these decisions? What’s the perceived benefit? What’s your long-term strategy? This is also where you can explain some of the assumptions you are making, i.e. that player A is on the roster to push player B, or that you expect player C to outplay player D for a starting job by midseason and so on. As we go through your submissions, the judges will be judging your submissions on a 5-point scale based on each of the following: Plausibility – How realistic is your proposal? Could this actually happen or are you just way off base? Cap Management – How did you do with the cap? Are you going to be in cap hell next year? Did you hit the salary floor? Did you go over cap? Team Improvement – How much were you able to improve the team, on paper? Did you get solid players for your money? Is the team on the right path? Fan Approval – How is this plan going to go over with fans? Are you going to lose season ticket holders over it? Sell a ton of new jerseys? How will it affect your ticket sales and your team’s bottom line? Or is moving to LA part of your plan? The judges for submissions will be me, Bewbies, and SteelAngel. If you find the task too daunting (though I'd urge you to give it a try!), then feel free to use this thread for your salary cap discussion as well. TheChirurgeon fucked around with this message at Jan 19, 2013 around 18:30 |
| # ? Jan 19, 2013 18:17 |
|
|
|
| # ? May 23, 2013 11:13 |
|
|
So now that you know what to do, let me give you some additional guidelines on how to get it done, and some helpful hints on how you can work the cap. Creating Contracts You will find as part of the documents list for these challenges a list of top free agents in the market, each with a listed salary and expected average salary. For each player, you should generate a contract that includes 1. Total contract amount 2. Number of years 3. Average salary (and feel free to enumerate how much will be given in each year, though this isn’t necessary) 4. Signing Bonus, if there is one 5. Any additional bonuses You can generally assume that whatever contracts you wanted will get signed, but I’d urge you to be realistic—Wes Welker isn’t going to sign a 1-year contract for the veteran minimum in 2013. While I’m here, let’s talk a little about contracts, and how they are structured according to the 2011 CBA. Base Salary Base salary is a player’s annual salary. It can be guaranteed, depending on the contract. Rookie contracts are typically guaranteed through the first three years, with some portion of the fourth also guaranteed. Signing Bonus Signing bonuses are paid out to a player at the contract’s signing, but are not counted against the cap in their entirety the first year. Instead, signing bonuses are prorated over the first 5 years of a contract. For example, if you signed a 5-year contract with a $10M signing bonus, that bonus would add $2M to your cap figure for each of the 5 years of your contract. Other bonuses Other bonuses may also be given, such as roster bonuses, workout bonuses, and bonuses for meeting certain goals. Non-performance-based incentives are counted against a player’s cap figure the year they are earned (so if a player is due a $4M roster bonus in 2014, that’s when it’ll count against the cap). There are two types of performance-based incentives: - Likely to Be Earned (LTBE) Incentives are those that are generally expected to be met unless a player is injured or misses time (such as a starting QB playing in 10% of his team’s snaps). These are counted against a player’s cap figure for the year they are earned. The team gets a credit at the end of the season if these go unearned (and that credit will be part of the team’s cap rollover for next year). - Not Likely to Be Earned (NLTBE) Incentives are those that are pretty unreasonable and unlikely to be met in a given year, such as a player being voted league MVP, a RB rushing for 2,000 yards, or a LB getting the Super Bowl MVP award. These don’t count against the cap until they are earned. Cutting Players and Dead Money Signing bonuses are a great way to bring in talent while keeping their annual cap hit low, but they are not without risks. Players who are cut or traded before their prorated signing bonuses have been accounted for incur what is commonly referred to as Dead Money. Essentially, when a player is cut or traded, however much signing bonus he had left accelerates to the current year’s cap figure. So going back to our last example, if you signed your $10M signing bonus on a 5-year deal, and were cut from the team in year 3, the remaining $6M in prorated signing bonus would accelerate to that year, forcing the team to account for $6M in cap space that can’t be used for anything else. The same thing happens if a player is traded—the old club takes on the dead money from accelerated signing bonuses, while the new club is only responsible for the base salary and remaining incentives in the player’s contract. Calculating a Player’s Cap Number A player’s cap number for a given year is equal to the following sum: (That Year’s Base salary) + (Prorated Signing Bonus) + (Any bonuses earned that year) + (LTBE Incentives) Restructuring Contracts You’ll often hear about contracts being restructured. This will happen a lot with teams that are up against the cap, as they look for ways to keep franchise players on board without sacrificing their ability to acquire new talent. Essentially a contract restructure works like this: You convert some portion of the player’s salary for the current year into a signing bonus (guaranteeing their pay for the current year), which then gets prorated across the next five (or however many are left) years of their contract. An example:  In 2012, Tom Brady was due a base salary of $11.75M. The Patriots chose to restructure his deal, reducing his salary for that season to the veteran minimum for a player with his experience ($950K), and converting the remainder of his salary into a $10.8M signing bonus that will counted $3.25M against the cap in each of 2012, 2013, and 2014. His cap hit in 2013 and 2014 rose from 18.2M to $21.8M in each of those seasons. Veteran Minimum Contracts There is a minimum you can pay the guys on a football team, based on their experience. You can find a list of those minimums in the 2011 CBA, or in this handy spreadsheet: Minimum Veteran Salaries Note that there is a veteran exception in the CBA to incentivize teams to hire veterans: Any veteran signed on a 1-year deal for the minimum NFL salary with no more than $65K in additional bonuses counts against the cap as though he was a player with only 2 accrued seasons. Minimum Team Spending A provision in the 2011 CBA requires that through 2013-2016, NFL teams have to spend 89% of their salary caps over that period in cash (so if the cap stayed at $120M from 2013-2016, that’d be a total of $480M in cap over that 4-year span, and each team would have to spend $427.2M in cash on its players over that 4-year span. Cash spending consists of total salary, signing bonuses paid that year (i.e. not prorated), bonuses or benefits paid to players in that year, and any other bonuses, grievances, or settlements paid that year.  Drafting Players and the Rookie Salary Pool As you go through each challenge, you’ll be called upon to pick your team’s draft choices for the 2013 season. You do not need to create contracts for your rookies! Teams are capped at what they can spend on their drafted rookies (the rookie salary pool), a number which will be provided to you with each challenge. So just figure out who you want, and make sure you kept the cap room to pay them. As you pick players, you can pick anyone available at any of your picks (just adjust the draft order accordingly by either shifting everyone else down a pick or swapping your chosen player with the guy your team was originally projected to get at that spot). You can also make trades with other teams, in which case you should do so according to the handy trade value chart that every team uses: 2013 Projected Draft ASSUMPTIONS Before you get started, here are some helpful assumptions that you are allowed to make during each exercise: Your rookie picks and free agents will work out. This never happens, but for simplicity’s sake, assume that everyone you sign and put on the depth chart will make it through camp and be playing on opening day. Up to 5 players will be open to restructuring Players don’t always agree to restructure, but you can assume that they will. Players will sign fair extensions You can choose to extend any players you want, but it should be at a fair (market value) price. Hometown Discount You may specify one UFA player who has not publicly announced that he won’t be back as a “hometown discount.” You may sign him for 20% less than market value. Players will live in your city You can assume that your location will not bar a player from coming to your team. This will be a big help if/when we do Cleveland and/or Buffalo. Championship Discount We’ve seen teams that can attract veterans for less when they are looking for a ring. If the team you’re working on for the challenge had 11+ wins in 2012, you may designate one player with 8+ years of experience as a “ring-seeker” and sign them at a 20% discount. Teams will trade with you You can generally assume that teams will trade any picks or players that you want to get from them. The terms should be fair. I’ve included some general guidelines, but I’d urge you to look at past trades as well to figure out what a reasonable cost for players and some picks are. Use the chart when trading picks this year. For future picks, devalue the pick by one round from the current year’s value for every year into the future you are going. Try to keep the trades realistic. No Holdouts You can assume that no one will hold out on you, even if you franchise tag them for the third year in a row and they’ve publicly announced their intention to hold out already. ADVICE Here are some extra pointers to help you out as well: Offensive lines benefit from continuity. Even bad offensive lines improve over time as they play together. Changing pieces in an offensive line tends to have a negative initial impact on the line’s performance. Line improvements are likely to be more effective if they are major upgrades, as opposed to lateral moves. Players slow down around 30. Running backs usually decline after age 28, tight ends after age 29, receivers after age 30, and quarterbacks after age 32. The original research for this was done by Profootballreference.com and these peaks still apply to the majority of players (though there are obviously some outliers). ESPN has also done some research (though less rigorous) to suggest that DEs and DBs begin to decline after age 29, Offensive linemen decline after age 30, and DTs decline after age 31. Pass defense is more important than run defense. The NFL is a passing league. Teams tend to win or lose with the passing game, and by stopping the passing game. Teams need run defense primarily to stop other teams from icing the clock when they are behind. If you are great against the run but can’t stop the pass, you’re basically the 2010 Houston Texans, i.e. not a playoff team. Teams built on Depth are better than teams of Stars and Scrubs. Injuries happen, save for those few teams that get exceptionally lucky (I’m looking at you, San Francisco). Teams generally need to expect and account for an average number of injuries, and so will need quality backups for however long they need to fill in. Don’t overpay running backs. In today’s NFL, running backs are one of the most overvalued commodities. With the exception of a select few, the production of most backs can be replaced easily through the draft. Give it up already. The following guys are not going to coach for your team. If they’re in your scenario I better see some ludicrous “Get-Brett-Favre-to-come-back-for-one-more-year”-style contract for them: Bill Cowher, John Gruden, Bill Parcells, Dick Vermeil, Jimmy Johnson Finally, feel free to ask any questions as you go through this. I or the other FF posters will be glad to help out, either with salary cap questions or questions about a specific player and his abilities. There are no wrong answers here, just ridiculously unreasonable scenarios. If you want to help judge, shoot me a PM volunteering and telling me why. Also here are some resources to help you out: Resources 2013 Projected Draft Draft Value Trade Chart Minimum Veteran Salaries 2013 Top 199 Free Agents 2013 Trading Block 2013 Franchise and Transition Tag Values 2011 NFL CBA Spotrac, which has player contracts Advanced NFL stats has player values Pro Football Reference Pro Football Focus has player grades Football Outsiders has advanced player and team stats TheChirurgeon fucked around with this message at Jan 19, 2013 around 18:29 |
| # ? Jan 19, 2013 18:17 |
|
|
Challenge 1: The 2013 Indianapolis Colts Difficulty Rating: 1/5 The Colts have a franchise quarterback and a number of young, talented players. They have many players to re-sign, but very little dead money and plenty of cap room to work with. The Colts managed to pull off an outstanding 2012 season, making the playoffs in a year where many people thought they’d finish 3rd in their division as they worked to rebuild and get out from under some massive dead money hits from guys like Peyton Manning ($10.4M), Dallas Clark ($5.58M), Gary Brackett ($7.2M), Kelvin Hayden ($5.4M), and Joseph Addai ($3.72M). All told they came into the season with over $38.6M in dead money on the books, the vast majority of which they’ll be able to shed in 2013. Which is good news for a team with promising young talent like the Colts. Andrew Luck had a solid rookie season, and young players like T.Y. Hilton and Vick Ballard showed a lot of promise. The Colts have are entering 2013 with $44.38M in cap room to work with, more than enough to make a splash. The bad news is that the Colts may not have been as good as their 11-5 record: Their -30 points differential on the season is more in-line with a 7-9 team and the Colts were tremendously lucky, going 9-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less. That may hurt them in the draft as well as they’ll end up drafting way lower than a 7-9 team should be. The Colts also have to re-sign a number of guys on their offensive line, find some nose tackles, and figure out their linebacker situation. Here are some things to look for when working on this challenge: - Fill your offensive line - Figure out your linebacker situation - Find an offensive coordinator to replace Arians. Yes, early reports are that the Colts have picked Pep Hamilton, but you can ignore those if you want and pick someone else. - Make sure you hit the league minimum Here’s a link to the Colts’ 2013 Cap Sheet which includes salaries and cap info, free agents, and the depth chart (with unsigned players removed). Happy hunting! TheChirurgeon fucked around with this message at Jan 19, 2013 around 18:22 |
| # ? Jan 19, 2013 18:18 |
|
|
So we just post our submission here? Can we post a basic one and fill in the rest later. i.e. Can I post basic contract outlines and change the structure (front / back loaded etc) tomorrow so Indy isn't committing mass suicide because of the mess they'll be in.
|
| # ? Jan 21, 2013 05:58 |
|
|
This is awesome. My submission will be up ASAP. You mentioned a place where they have the expected salaries for FAs, where is that? Relentlessboredomm fucked around with this message at Jan 21, 2013 around 07:18 |
| # ? Jan 21, 2013 06:52 |
|
|
Relentlessboredomm posted:This is awesome. My submission will be up ASAP. There's no "official" expected salaries for FAs, but I have given them a best guess in the "top FAs for 2013" sheet, here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...STRNeWtKVTk0eHc it's the column titled "Exp. Average." It contains what I expect the average salary of the new contract to be. i.e. I expect Ryan Clady to top the market for tackles, so he'll end up with an average salary around $12M per year (it could be 5 years, $60M, for example). Also yeah, just post your entries here and feel free to come back and work on them.
|
| # ? Jan 21, 2013 07:43 |
|
|
As the official *cough* GM of the Indianapolis Colts here are the measures I will take this offseason. First let me lay out my concerns and strategy here and then I’ll dive into specifics. The two major concerns for the Colts are protecting franchise, Andrew Luck, and continuing the transition to a 3-4 defense. The first goal is far and away the most important one and it’s the one I’ve spent the most time considering. The Colts rarely even saw mediocre line play and usually it came from: LT with Castonzo, RT with Winston Justice, and occasional flashes at Center with a combo of Samson Satele/A.Q. Shipley. Mike McGlynn at RG was the worst offender, but Joe Reitz at LG also wanted to test out how many times he could get Luck beaten up while maintaining a starting position. As you’d expect the running game suffered due to the horrific incompetence of the starting guards. Joe Reitz is an RFA this offseason and Justice is an UFA. Sadly McGlynn is still under contract for another year. I debated about Winston Justice for a good long while. On the one hand there are a number of solid FA RTs available this year, on the other hand most of those available will likely never hit the market. Essentially the choices are to sign another mediocre looking RT and hope he plays better than Justice, attempt to draft a T and hope he plays better than Justice, or stick with Justice for another few years and fix the interior. Eventually I settled on fixing the interior while sticking with Justice. I know, I’m not particularly thrilled about it either. After throwing some much needed talent into the interior of the o-line, the much larger problem of the defense must be dealt with. Sadly the defense has too many issues to generate a quick fix. The main two defenders that are UFAs are Darius Butler at CB and Dwight Freeney. There is no way Freeney is coming back both because of his price and his relatively lackluster year at DE/OLB. On the plus side Mathis took to the transition relatively well as did former bust Jerry Hughes. The secondary was by no means impressive this year but the combo of Vontae Davis and Darius Butler was surprisingly solid. As a result I resigned Butler on a relatively short deal. Unlike the secondary the run defense was nonexistent. Opposing RBs averaged 137.5 yds/per game making the Colts run defense 29th in the league with only Jax, Buffalo, and NO worse. I focused most of my efforts on retooling the front seven which should improve the run defense, and likely the pass D as well. One final note here, throughout this process I tried to stay with the youth movement that Indy is currently embracing. There are a few decent stopgap options for both o-line and d-line available but I’d rather continue to develop some younger talent at these positions. Free Agency: Unless noted otherwise assume after the first year hit, which is noted, the rest of the contract is split equally over the remaining years.
Indy is at a nice spot in the draft where all the QB needy teams at the top of the second should be trying to jump up to grab their QB of the future. As a result I parlayed this into a trade down with KC which according to the chart should look like this: Indy gives up the 24 & 118 and gets KC’s 34 & 63. Remember there’s no second rounder because they shipped it off to Miami so here’s how I would draft with those picks:
WR1: Reggie Wayne WR2: TY Hilton TE: C. Fleener FB: D. Allen RB: V. Ballard QB: Andrew Luck LT: A. Castonzo LG: Travis Frederick C: Samson Satele RG: Andy Levitre RT: Winston Justice Defense CB: V. Davis CB: D. Butler S: Tyrann Mathieu S: A. Bethea OLB: R. Mathis OLB: J. Hughes ILB: Erin Henderson ILB: Brad Jones DE: Mike Devito NT: Johnathan Hankins DE: Cory Redding Final Cap number: 117.2 million: That keeps the Colts above the floor but with plenty of room to sign a few cheap guys to minimum contracts to flesh out the roster. Most of the contracts are front loaded so the numbers go down next year. Relentlessboredomm fucked around with this message at Jan 21, 2013 around 12:18 |
| # ? Jan 21, 2013 12:04 |
|
|
Can I claim the Vikings when they come up?
|
| # ? Jan 22, 2013 01:26 |
|
|
Darth Brooks posted:Can I claim the Vikings when they come up? I think as many people that want can do a scenario. I hope the Browns get done, I'll do a good one I hope and win a sweet TRich or Gordon avatar.
|
| # ? Jan 22, 2013 01:31 |
|
|
Darth Brooks posted:Can I claim the Vikings when they come up? I think the idea is that Chir has specific teams in mind that everyone is supposed to compete on, rather than people 'claiming' teams. That's why there's the difficulty rating there, I assume he's using a team that's got several needs but a relatively good situation and plenty of cap space to serve as a tutorial of the format. I love this idea by the way, I'll try to make up my own plan soon although I think Relentlessboredomm's is a pretty solid take already. The Colts have no third round pick though, they traded it last draft to get TY Hilton. Grozz Nuy fucked around with this message at Jan 22, 2013 around 01:55 |
| # ? Jan 22, 2013 01:47 |
|
|
Grozz Nuy posted:I think the idea is that Chir has specific teams in mind that everyone is supposed to compete on, rather than people 'claiming' teams. That's why there's the difficulty rating there, I assume he's using a team that's got several needs but a relatively good situation and plenty of cap space to serve as a tutorial of the format. This, but I'm totally open to suggestions on future teams to do. The Browns are definitely "low" on the scale, given that they have the 2nd most cap money in the league to spend (next to Cincy, who might just have the full-on "easiest" situation). My plan was to address the following teams as challenges, but I am happy to add to the challenge list: - Cleveland Browns (2/5) - Arizona Cardinals (4/5) - Dallas Cowboys (5/5)* - Baltimore Ravens (4/5) - New York Jets (5/5) - Philadelphia Eagles (4/5) - Houston Texans (4/5) - Kansas City Chiefs (4/5) - San Diego Chargers (3/5) I'll add the Vikings as well. *The Cowboys are in such despicable cap hell it's not even funny. Makes the Jets situation look enviable.
|
| # ? Jan 22, 2013 02:19 |
|
|
I bet the Steelers would be a really tough one too. Horrible cap problems, several guys nearing the end of their careers, and a QB who's a walking injury report but too good to just abandon.
|
| # ? Jan 22, 2013 02:21 |
|
|
Relentlessboredomm posted:As the official *cough* GM of the Indianapolis Colts here are the measures I will take this offseason. This is a really solid post. I like the addition of Levitre and re-signing Justice and Shipley (Linkenbach has to go though, and so I think Levitre is the right move here), and I think sticking with the youth movement is a smart move for a team built around young talent. If I were the Colts I wouldn't worry so much about making the playoffs in 2013 (and I don't think they will), but rather making a team that will win 10+ games a season every year in 2014 and beyond.
|
| # ? Jan 22, 2013 02:29 |
|
|
Is being conservative on your draft pick trades (if you trade down, still be a couple spots ahead of where the guy is supposed to go, etc...) and maybe paying a little more for contracts a bonus for realism or the sign of a GM in over his head and getting fleeced? Not that I have any reason to think my teams real GM would be in over his head and getting fleeced by other teams. e: You can trade a second for Phillip Rivers? Cool, I won't do that though because it seems unrealistic. Michael Corleone fucked around with this message at Jan 22, 2013 around 02:32 |
| # ? Jan 22, 2013 02:30 |
|
|
Michael Corleone posted:Is being conservative on your draft pick trades (if you trade down, still be a couple spots ahead of where the guy is supposed to go, etc...) and maybe paying a little more for contracts a bonus for realism or the sign of a GM in over his head and getting fleeced? Not that I have any reason to think my teams real GM would be in over his head and getting fleeced by other teams. I actually like this strategy more, but I can't speak to what the other judges think. There have been some good economic analyses that suggest that whether a guy outperforms the next guy in the draft at his position (i.e. whether the #1 WR outperforms the #2 WR drafted) is basically a crap shoot, and that good luck is a lot (but not all) of what separates good teams from bad. To that end, the suggestion is that teams benefit from getting as many picks as possible to maximize their changes of hitting the jackpot on a pick, like how Belichick has done. And it's hard to argue with his results in terms of how the team has done, even with the insane turnover of guys they've had on defense. Michael Corleone posted:Is being conservative on your draft pick trades (if you trade down, still be a couple spots ahead of where the guy is supposed to go, etc...) and maybe paying a little more for contracts a bonus for realism or the sign of a GM in over his head and getting fleeced? Not that I have any reason to think my teams real GM would be in over his head and getting fleeced by other teams. That's mostly there to troll Steel Angel  The FA list is mostly for examples. Half of those guys can't be traded just for dead money reasons, like Sanchez or Vick.
|
| # ? Jan 22, 2013 02:34 |
|
|
Can I get a list of what draft picks the Colts do have? You mention in your summary of their roster situation that they have only four, and I know they traded their third because it was a deal with the Niners. Also, Dwight Freeney doesn't seem to be on the list, and I'm wondering what his cap hit would be because he hasn't handled the transition to the 3-4 particularly well.
|
| # ? Jan 22, 2013 02:36 |
|
|
Grozz Nuy posted:Can I get a list of what draft picks the Colts do have? You mention in your summary of their roster situation that they have only four, and I know they traded their third because it was a deal with the Niners. Also, Dwight Freeney doesn't seem to be on the list, and I'm wondering what his cap hit would be because he hasn't handled the transition to the 3-4 particularly well. Sure thing--They have the 24th pick in the 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 6th rounds. E: it's also in the 2013 NFL Draft doc (which I have updated with traded picks for this year) TheChirurgeon fucked around with this message at Jan 22, 2013 around 02:47 |
| # ? Jan 22, 2013 02:40 |
|
|
TheChirurgeon posted:- Kansas City Chiefs (4/5) Is it jumping the gun to get an idea of why a situation is ranked the way it is? I'm very curious why the Chiefs situation would be so difficult.
|
| # ? Jan 22, 2013 03:33 |
|
|
excidium posted:Is it jumping the gun to get an idea of why a situation is ranked the way it is? I'm very curious why the Chiefs situation would be so difficult. Picking the #1 overall pick or figuring what to do with it is a 3/5 by itself.
|
| # ? Jan 22, 2013 03:44 |
|
|
excidium posted:Is it jumping the gun to get an idea of why a situation is ranked the way it is? I'm very curious why the Chiefs situation would be so difficult. A 3/5 may be more accurate, but I tend to think the harder situations are not as much those situations where you have less room, but less talent. I believe the Chiefs have around $8M in cap space, but they don't have a franchise QB (Cassel will probably need to be cut), and this isn't the best year to draft one. They also have to replace the now retired Ryan Lilja, figure out what they're going to do with Dwayne Bowe (who will fetch a large contract in free agency), decide what to do with Glen Dorsey, and figure out how to get another CB to play across from Flowers (Routt was a terrible pick-up and Arenas didn't have a stellar season). So while the team has some money to play with, they have some big, expensive questions that need answers.
|
| # ? Jan 22, 2013 03:51 |
|
|
excidium posted:Is it jumping the gun to get an idea of why a situation is ranked the way it is? I'm very curious why the Chiefs situation would be so difficult. A #1 pick with no obvious #1 prospect is quite the pickle for a new FO and coaching staff to figure out. Roll the dice with a QB? Let Albert walk and roll the dice with Joeckel? Take one of the top D-linemen and roll the dice with fan backlash? I don't see any easy solutions there.
|
| # ? Jan 22, 2013 03:59 |
|
|
Grozz Nuy posted:Can I get a list of what draft picks the Colts do have? You mention in your summary of their roster situation that they have only four, and I know they traded their third because it was a deal with the Niners. Also, Dwight Freeney doesn't seem to be on the list, and I'm wondering what his cap hit would be because he hasn't handled the transition to the 3-4 particularly well. Freeney is a UFA this season, so there's no hit. Also if I got some of the draft picks wrong, just assume that I'm going best o-lineman or OLB available with the next pick after their first. TheChirurgeon posted:This is a really solid post. I like the addition of Levitre and re-signing Justice and Shipley (Linkenbach has to go though, and so I think Levitre is the right move here), and I think sticking with the youth movement is a smart move for a team built around young talent. If I were the Colts I wouldn't worry so much about making the playoffs in 2013 (and I don't think they will), but rather making a team that will win 10+ games a season every year in 2014 and beyond. Thanks, I appreciate it. I tried to be realistic about signing options and the costs associated with them. I actually had most of the numbers in place before I saw your averages and all of my contracts were within .5mil of those. I also tried to go slightly higher than previously comparable contracts just to adjust for the market. There are some possible cuts that would change what I do with Winston Justice and the slim chance that the Bengals are dumb enough to let Andre walk but otherwise I'd stick with my gameplan. Also I love the idea of starting with the easier ones. There's definitely a point at which you have to make some hard decisions and I'm looking forward to the very difficult teams. Relentlessboredomm fucked around with this message at Jan 22, 2013 around 04:09 |
| # ? Jan 22, 2013 04:00 |
|
|
TheChirurgeon posted:A 3/5 may be more accurate, but I tend to think the harder situations are not as much those situations where you have less room, but less talent. I believe the Chiefs have around $8M in cap space, but they don't have a franchise QB (Cassel will probably need to be cut), and this isn't the best year to draft one. They also have to replace the now retired Ryan Lilja, figure out what they're going to do with Dwayne Bowe (who will fetch a large contract in free agency), decide what to do with Glen Dorsey, and figure out how to get another CB to play across from Flowers (Routt was a terrible pick-up and Arenas didn't have a stellar season). Cool, I definitely have some more questions but I'll wait until they come up so we don't mix scenarios right off the bat.
|
| # ? Jan 22, 2013 04:04 |
|
|
Awesome first submission. When I get free time I'm definitely going to jump on this. The only thing I can nitpick is that Winston Justice will get a better deal than that. He had a good year at RT, and there are lots of teams willing to pay for that Miami, for one.
|
| # ? Jan 22, 2013 04:13 |
|
|
AAA DOLFAN posted:Awesome first submission. When I get free time I'm definitely going to jump on this. The only thing I can nitpick is that Winston Justice will get a better deal than that. He had a good year at RT, and there are lots of teams willing to pay for that Yea I had far and away the most trouble figuring out what sort of contract he was worth. Him and that loving punter. There's a market that's all over the goddamn place.
|
| # ? Jan 22, 2013 04:45 |
|
|
Okay, here's my crack at this. There have been a lot of Colts fans talking excitedly about the team's cap space in the context of prominent FA receivers like Mike Wallace or Dwayne Bowe, but I don't think that's currently in the Colts' best interests. Andrew Luck has shown plenty of ability to move the ball effectively with Reggie Wayne, Dwayne Allen, TY Hilton, and Coby Fleener on offense, so I don't believe 'more weapons' is a smart allocation of the Colts' resources. In my view the overwhelming priorities for this team need to be upgrading the offensive line to both protect Luck's health and reduce turnovers created by pressure situations, and to add more playmakers on a defense that struggled against both the run and pass. Because most of the Colts' core talent is still young, I tried to target younger free agents to maximize their contributions to the team's window of contention. Unfortunately, the Colts have limited solutions to fix holes through the draft, due to both a paucity of picks due to trades and picking much lower than a team of their talent level would be expected thanks to a bunch of close wins in 2012. Free Agency Existing Free Agents Resigned: CB Darius Butler (4 years, 8.5 mil total value, first year cap hit 4 mil): Butler had a breakout season in 2012 and is still only 26. He should be relatively affordable, and a long-term deal with a high up-front cap hit should be both agreeable to Butler and take advantage of the Colts' hefty cap space while minimizing future dead money in case he regresses. P Pat McAfee (3 years, 4.5 mil total value, first year cap hit 2 mil): McAfee ended up just outside the top 10 in net punt yards, but should be much more affordable than most of the names ahead of him. I think the recent trend in specialists has been to go younger rather than commit premium money to them, but McAfee splits the difference and is a luxury well within the ability of the Colts to afford. C AQ Shipley (1 year, 950k total value): RFA so it would be easy to keep him, backs up a position of weakness while turning out reasonably good results in relief. QB Drew Stanton (2 years, 2.5 mil total value, first year cap hit 1.5 mil): Solid, affordable backup QB. The Colts don't need a bubble starter to 'push' Luck, but it's good to at least have a reasonably effective contingency plan rather than the Curtis Painters and Charlie Batches of the world. RT Winston Justice (3 years, 10 mil total value, first year cap hit 4.5 mil): There are clear upgrades available in the free agent market at RT, but Andre Smith would command top dollar and Vollmer is older and has recent injury history. The offensive line is a serious problem for the Colts but it's mostly due to the interior, Justice is effective and affordable enough that he's worth retaining. I bumped this figure up some from what Relentlessboredomm predicted, I'd also use my hometown discount opportunity here if necessary. Most of the other impending free agents were easy to let go. Dwight Freeney is a fan favorite but he's rapidly aging out of his effectiveness and did not handle the transition to the 3-4 scheme nearly as well as Mathis. Linkenbach and Reitz are terrible, nothing of value lost there. Avery is cheap but unreliable. New Free Agents Buffalo LG Andy Levitre (5 years, 42 mil total value, first year cap hit 9.5 mil): The Colts' biggest FA move of the year if I were in charge. Best available LG on the market, highly durable and the highest ranked guard by PFF in pass protection. Intends to test the market, and young enough that the 5 year deal should be expected to cover the remainder of his peak performance. San Diego RG Louis Vasquez (4 years, 15 mil total value, first year cap hit 4 mil): Only 26, played over 1000 snaps and was the 9th best RG by PFF grade (and none of the RGs ahead of him are FAs) despite having a terrible RT next to him. New York Giants FS Kenny Phillips (5 years, 22 mil total value, first year cap hit 5 mil): Jarius Byrd and Dashon Goldson are both very likely to be kept by the franchise tag, and I don't think Goldson is worth elite safety money despite the elevated profile from his two recent Pro Bowl selections. Phillips is the under-the-radar, more affordable alternative. Hurt for a large portion of last season, but played at a high level when healthy in both run defense and pass coverage. Again, young enough to be valuable for the entire duration of the contract, and the Giants are in cap crunch so they're unlikely to be able to compete for him. New York Jets DE Mike Devito (4 years, 16 mil total value, first year cap hit 4 mil): A little older than I'd prefer to be targeting, but the pickings for 3-4 DEs in this market are slim and I don't like Glenn Dorsey at all. Oakland RB Mike Goodson (2 years, 1.75 mil total value, first year cap hit 1 mil): Also coming off injury, but he's only 25 and has relatively little wear and tear due to being McFadden's backup in Oakland. Goodson has shown flashes of playmaking ability in limited action for the Raiders, and Donald Brown has yet to look like the player the Colts were expecting to get when they drafted him in the first round. Vick Ballard has been promising, but the Colts could still use more of a run game threat to take at least some of the burden off Luck's shoulders. Investing big money in RBs is a fool's errand in the modern NFL, so Goodson is a low-cost reclamation project that at worst provides depth at the position and a decent weapon out of multi-back sets, with considerably more upside if he breaks out. Draft A large portion of this draft's talent seems to be in defensive front 7 talent, which is perfect for the Colts and the reason why I mostly focused on the OL in free agency. 1st round pick, (#24): Manti Te'o, ILB, Notre Dame. This is assuming a fairly substantial draft day fall due to the Lennay Kekua Saga. This is the exact sort of move I think the Colts should be making: they're somewhat undertalented for an 11-5 team and need LB help badly, so taking advantage of a guy falling for non-football reasons is a great opportunity for them. Te'o had a lackluster game against Alabama but has much more tape of being a highly productive read-and-react player who also adds a lot of value in coverage. Should tremendously help the Colts defense up the middle against both the run and pass. 3rd round pick (#86): Brandon Jenkins, OLB, Florida State: Jenkins was rated as a late second/early third talent by most places I looked up, but also had a season ending lisfranc injury that could hamper his ability to perform in predraft activities so I'm hoping he falls to the Colts here, or within range that they could move up without giving up too much in terms of future picks. Has the right dimensions for a 3-4 rush linebacker with a hugely productive sophomore season in terms of both sacks and tackles for loss. Should tighten up the Colts run defense as well as adding a viable pass rush threat opposite Mathis. Thought about going for a DE here, but none of the prospects in this pick range seemed to be a good fit for the 3-4 scheme. 4th round pick (#118): Kwame Geathers, NT, Georgia: The Colts need a 'true' NT, and this guy definitely fits the bill because he's enormous. I'm personally not convinced in the value of taking a NT with a high pick because they come off the field so often, so my alternate universe Colts decide to address other needs on defense first. 6th round pick: BPA, packaged to trade up in 3rd for Jenkins if necessary. 2013 Depth Chart (new additions in italics) QB: Andrew Luck RB: Vick Ballard WR1: Reggie Wayne WR2: TY Hilton TE1: Dwayne Allen TE2: Coby Fleener LT: Anthony Castonzo LG: Andy Levitre C: Samson Satele RG: Louis Vasquez RT: Winston Justice LDE: Mike Devito NT: Kwame Geathers RDE: Cory Redding LOLB: Robert Mathis ROLB: Brandon Jenkins LILB: Manti Te'o RILB: Jerell Freeman LCB: Vontae Davis RCB: Darius Butler SS: Antoine Bethea FS: Kenny Phillips These commitments plus the rookie salaries leave the Colts about 4 million for roster filler or to be rolled over. Also, I would explore trading Pat Angerer to a 4-3 team where he'd fit better if I could get a second-day pick in return. He's still on a rookie deal, which should make him pretty easy to trade. This plan still leaves the Colts slightly vulnerable on the DL, but realistically there were so many holes on defense that I could only do so much with the draft with only four picks. I'm not sure if other people think the Te'o drama will drop his stock this far, if the judges think that's implausible then I could pick a DE instead and swap out DeVito with a FA linebacker.
|
| # ? Jan 22, 2013 06:28 |
|
|
A Notre Dame player going to the Colts is a guaranteed media circus, especially with Te'o's added baggage. Still, it makes a lot of sense for football reasons. If Grozz ran the real-life draft, he'd win my Brass Balls Award.
|
| # ? Jan 22, 2013 06:45 |
|
|
Obviously we agreed on the main points. I will say that I didn't sign Stanton because there was that whole saga last year where the Jets promised him an opportunity to start and had to ship him out because they grabbed Tebow. I just don't think he's going to settle for permanent clipboard holder. You need a Wisconsin QB for that. Also, I feel like the running game is going to improve with the interior o-line improving and won't need another RB but that's sort of a chicken-egg argument. I love Jenkins, I just felt like a homer because I'm an FSU fan and I don't think/want/believe he'll fall that far. Oh and the safety addition is nice, I just realized during this process how amazingly gun shy I am about giving money to recently injured players. That was sort of an odd personal discovery. Relentlessboredomm fucked around with this message at Jan 22, 2013 around 06:57 |
| # ? Jan 22, 2013 06:55 |
|
|
Relentlessboredomm posted:Obviously we agreed on the main points. I will say that I didn't sign Stanton because there was that whole saga last year where the Jets promised him an opportunity to start and had to ship him out because they grabbed Tebow. I just don't think he's going to settle for permanent clipboard holder. You need a Wisconsin QB for that. Oh yeah, I think we definitely had more or less the same idea, right down to targeting several of the same free agents. I actually really like the Mathieu pick for the Colts, but I also think Phillips is really underrated as a player (he was among the top FS in QB rating against both this year and last, and solid in run defense as well) and it's a good opportunity because the Giants probably can't retain him. You might be right about Stanton, but there are a lot of guys this offseason who could feasibly compete for starter jobs (Matt Moore, Matt Flynn, Campbell again, Vick) so he could very easily not get that opportunity he's expecting. I agree that the Colts don't necessarily need another RB, but I watch a fair amount of the Raiders just from being in the Bay Area market and think there's a lot of low-risk opportunity in Goodson in particular so it's worth the small cash outlay. And Donald Brown sucks, so gently caress him.
|
| # ? Jan 22, 2013 07:01 |
|
|
Grozz Nuy posted:And Donald Brown sucks, so gently caress him. Something everyone can agree on. I'm with you on Phillips, it was purely an injury thing for me. Definitely think Goodson can be a solid backup/ RBBC type of guy someplace.
|
| # ? Jan 22, 2013 07:11 |
|
|
I have nothing substantial to add except that these are amazing posts and you guys consistently clown me in football knowledge. Keep it up
|
| # ? Jan 22, 2013 07:31 |
|
|
Relentlessboredomm posted:I'm with you on Phillips, it was purely an injury thing for me. He played over 1200 snaps in 2011 and nearly 1000 in 2010, and had one of his best games of the season in Week 17 after coming back, so I don't think it's a recurring durability issue. It's a risk, but I think it's enough of a need and Phillips is good enough as a player to make it worth it.
|
| # ? Jan 22, 2013 07:40 |
|
|
As a Colts fan, the posts by Grozz and Relentless have been awesome. With Arians gone and Hamilton vowing to run a high-efficiency West Coast offense, a guy like Wallace isn't going to fit anymore, especially with the young T.Y. Hilton already on the roster. I imagine Fleener is going to play a larger role than this year too (assuming he stays healthy). The upgrades at O-line and on Defense would be huge. I don't foresee Te'o being there at #24 (nor do I see the Colts trading up for anyone in this draft) but if he was, I think it's a good pick up. One question mark I still have is the Colt's 5th round pick from last year, Josh Chapman, a NT from Alabama who was put on IR to heal his knee from his college days but was otherwise seen as a good prospect. Assuming he comes in and performs at a decent level, I'm curious how this affects some of these FA pick ups and draft choices. I didn't see any commentary on that wrinkle or if that factored into any of the decision-making processes.
|
| # ? Jan 23, 2013 01:05 |
|
|
FooF posted:As a Colts fan, the posts by Grozz and Relentless have been awesome. With Arians gone and Hamilton vowing to run a high-efficiency West Coast offense, a guy like Wallace isn't going to fit anymore, especially with the young T.Y. Hilton already on the roster. I imagine Fleener is going to play a larger role than this year too (assuming he stays healthy). Absolutely factored in for me. I figured that you shouldn't wait on a guy who's never played a snap in the NFL, particularly since two NTs, one who's incredibly cheap would work out well as far as a rotation is concerned. I actually considered going after one of the older NT on the FA market to sort of groom Chapman, but again I think it's a tad foolish to bank on a 5th round pick who's never played. If the coaching staff thinks he's worth a drat then I would've gone some form of pass rusher or o-line.
|
| # ? Jan 23, 2013 08:50 |
|
|
FooF posted:As a Colts fan, the posts by Grozz and Relentless have been awesome. With Arians gone and Hamilton vowing to run a high-efficiency West Coast offense, a guy like Wallace isn't going to fit anymore, especially with the young T.Y. Hilton already on the roster. I imagine Fleener is going to play a larger role than this year too (assuming he stays healthy). Since he's on a 4-year contract, it's unlikely that he'll be cut by the Colts without them taking a good look at him in camp and during the season. Even injured, he was a hell of a prospect coming out of Alabama and he'll get his chance. That said, I agree with Boredomm in that the team needs a backup plan, and the best plan in this case is a solid veteran.
|
| # ? Jan 23, 2013 13:07 |
|
|
A quick note: If anyone else wants to submit a plan for the Colts, the deadline is Friday at midnight.
|
| # ? Jan 24, 2013 14:41 |
|
|
When can we get started on the Browns? I want to maybe sign a FA guard (Geoff Schwartz) that is not listed on your top 199, what is his going rate bro?
|
| # ? Jan 27, 2013 04:21 |
|
|
Michael Corleone posted:When can we get started on the Browns? I want to maybe sign a FA guard (Geoff Schwartz) that is not listed on your top 199, what is his going rate bro? I'll do the Browns next. Schwartz is a solid run blocker who's been plagued by injury problems and only played about 160 snaps with the Vikings in 2012. He made the minimum with Carolina and signed a 1-year deal in Minnesota for the veteran minimum with a little under $1M in bonuses. My guess is a team can sign him for a "kick-the-tires"-style one-year deal in 2012 worth around $1M.
|
| # ? Jan 27, 2013 04:42 |
|
|
Awesome, this game seems really fun but I don't know enough about other teams to do them.
|
| # ? Jan 27, 2013 04:53 |
|
|
|
| # ? May 23, 2013 11:13 |
|
|
Michael Corleone posted:Awesome, this game seems really fun but I don't know enough about other teams to do them. This will give you the opportunity to learn about those other teams. It definitely gives you a better sense for where teams are this offseason.
|
| # ? Jan 27, 2013 04:57 |
|
