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grover
Jan 23, 2002

PEW PEW PEW







Lots of news recently that’s been spilling into other threads. Iran launched a monkey into space and unveiled a new stealth fighter:





Meanwhile, in the real world, North Korea launched a satellite that achieved orbit, and stands poised to test another nuclear weapon. Their last nuclear tests didn't turn out so well, and appear to Western analysts to have been fizzles, and are far too large to fit on their long-range rockets, but they were still nuclear weapons with yield in the range of 2.5-3kt and a cause for international concern.



Technical achievements notwithstanding, both nations have massive conventional forces, long-range missiles, nuclear weapons (or close to it) and leadership that eternally seems a temper-tantrum away from killing a lot of people.



Update: This thread started out as an Iran/North Korea thread, but morphed and eventually got a name change and became the GiP current events thread. Most of the information on the first few (hundred) pages is old news now.

grover fucked around with this message at Dec 21, 2013 around 17:07

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GD_American
Jul 21, 2004

SCHWÄRTZESTES HERZ
IN ALEMANIA


Do you think that Iranian stealth fighter (not sure whether to put derisive quotation marks around that) will actually be fielded in numbers, or is it just the aerospace equivalent of a showcar? Or, is Iran actually trying to build an export capability?

grover
Jan 23, 2002

PEW PEW PEW







GD_American posted:

Do you think that Iranian stealth fighter (not sure whether to put derisive quotation marks around that) will actually be fielded in numbers, or is it just the aerospace equivalent of a showcar? Or, is Iran actually trying to build an export capability?
It's doubtful the "full-scale" aircraft is even capable of flight. Most people are speculating what's seen flying is an R/C model. Even to my untrained eye, there are obvious omissions, like no HUD or HMD (and thus incapable of combat) and there's no way that exhaust design would work without the fiberglass burning. No room for radar in the nose. No pitot tubes, no antennas, etc. And the design is not only unconventional, it's nonsensical. I'm surprised the R/C model was capable of flight, really.

They put their flying boat into production though.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjgvY4SnHKM

grover fucked around with this message at Feb 3, 2013 around 14:18

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011



Making threats is literally all North Korea can do (killing random civilians and military personnel who don't see it coming included in the "threats" category). They have no money, no one is willing to give them money because their credit is awful, their agriculture is a step above and occasionally a step below sustenance, their industry has due to attrition and disorganization actually gotten worse since the 70s. Their military very likely has no real skills being unable to afford any kind of training above pretend maneuvers in notional vehicles, some public defector accounts indicate the line army spends most of their time securing food and engaged in intra-unit drama, and most defector accounts say that every single person in the North Korean military knows that they will get annihilated in the event of war. That said war isn't totally impossible, because again it's all they've got, and the sinking of the Cheonan indicates that whatever small number of people actually make decisions there are either willing to go right up to the edge or more disturbingly and probably likely, are too dumb to know where the edge really is.

edit: forgot to mention that whatever communication and electronic technologies and probably also military doctrine will probably be primarily from somewhere in the black and white tv era.

All they have is the ability to kill a whole lot of civilians and some smaller number of military personnel. What's really the regime's greatest strength is that no one, not the PRC, not them, not us, and certainly not South Korea, want to see the DPRK collapse.

Best Friends fucked around with this message at Feb 3, 2013 around 14:31

Red Crown
Oct 20, 2008

Pretend my finger's a knife.

GD_American posted:

Do you think that Iranian stealth fighter (not sure whether to put derisive quotation marks around that) will actually be fielded in numbers, or is it just the aerospace equivalent of a showcar? Or, is Iran actually trying to build an export capability?

Yeah, what's pictured is obviously a half-scale mockup. It might be the same aircraft pictured in the video. Look at the high-res cockpit image: the airspeed indicator is the dial on the top left. The red line is at 260 - that's "your wings are liable to shear off if you turn hard at this speed" speed. 260 is absolutely nothing on a jet aircraft. Additionally, that same gauge has a big green, white and yellow line on it. Those are used in civilian aircraft - military jets assume that the pilot is trained well enough to know the limits of his own aircraft.

My eyes tell me that the entire thing is fiberglass and I would be amazed if it was much larger than a WWII era fighter given how cramped the pilot is. The canopy is crappy plastic, you can see that it's transparency is mediocre at best. Don't get me wrong - Iran has better engineers than this. They've kept some of their F-14As in flying condition with no factory spare parts and have cobbled together Frankensteinian creations out of F-5s and some stuff they found laying around. They weren't trying to make a fighter with this, they were trying to make a domestic propaganda victory.

not caring here
Feb 22, 2012

blazemastah 2 dry 4 u

I remember the last briefing that I got about North Korea.

Alarmingly, they apparently have enough artillery and rounds to fire off 100,000 rounds an hour for 4 hours before logistics start to be a problem, and more importantly, artillery pieces start breaking. Quality of the rounds is expected to be 10% duds, and 20% of those that do fire, the warheads are expected to not detonate. Also, accuracy is somewhere around minute-of-province. Still, that's an awful lot of loving rounds to be fired off, and it's expected Casey will be loving levelled to the ground, everyone dead. Yup, that's why they call us the Korean Speedbump. It is also the reason why they want to move everyone down to Humphreys, as using US troops as an artillery distraction and getting billions of dollars worth of resources and forward staging area destroyed before we fire a single shot is dumb as gently caress.

On the plus side, however, that last missile launch apparently grounded their airforce for between 4 to 6 months due to no fuel. Laughably, their Top Gun pilots only get about 6 hours actual flight time a year. Most of the pilots are now aging and give no fucks, and fly over to South Korea and defect fairly regularly considering how few of them there are.

Biggest plus was that about 2 years ago, intel estimates had up to 50% of their units in the regular army were as low as 50% strength. The reason being that they were in the hospital suffering from malnutrition. The downside for ROK though is that the NK Special Forces is top notch. They get the best of everything, and the most food. Unfortunately for them, their training is hard as gently caress, but their doctrine is somewhat outdated, and their equipment sucks some dog balls, except for these neat little mini-subs that occasionally turn up on the ROK shore line. But they are still hard as nails, and have even gotten into shoot outs at the Blue House (the ROK's White House) in assassination attempts that drat near succeeded.

tldr; NK is lovely, but still annoying.

grover
Jan 23, 2002

PEW PEW PEW







not caring here posted:

It is also the reason why they want to move everyone down to Humphreys, as using US troops as an artillery distraction and getting billions of dollars worth of resources and forward staging area destroyed before we fire a single shot is dumb as gently caress.
On the bright side, all the artillery distracted with stopping/slowing the US counterattack won't be used for leveling cities! I really doubt Casey will close; still have to have some response force capable of blunting an attack. Unhardened surface buildings may be leveled during the bombardment, but I would certainly hope US forces are prepared to take cover in hardened bunkers.

There's a lot of talk about the 170mm Koksan and 240mm rockets, but they're relatively few in number and have limited rates of fire. The good news (relatively speaking) is that most of DPRK's artillery is relatively short-ranged and unlikely to be *right* at the edge of the DMZ. So while it's not incorrect to say DPRK can hit Seoul with tens of thousands of artillery pieces, it would be more accurate to say DPRK can hit the northern fringes of Seoul and do random damage deeper.

The range of the majority of DPRK artillery is shown on this map in red:


Casualty estimates are generally considered lower than the entire population of Seoul because once the bombardment starts, people will take cover and US & RoK counter-battery fire will be aimed at the highest threats. In intelligence gives warning (would be hard for DPRK to mobilize a strike like that without *some* warning, I'd think), then the counter-battery fire is very likely to actually have rounds in the air headed back north before the first DPRK rounds even land.

http://atlanticsentinel.com/2012/06...-a-sea-of-fire/

Atlantic Sentinel posted:

If the North Korean Peoples Army (KPA) were to start a doctrinal, conventional artillery barrage focused on South Korean forces, we could expect to see around three thousand casualties in the first few minutes but the casualty rate would quickly drop as the surprise wears off and counterbattery fires slow down the North Korean rates of fire.

If the KPA were to engage Seoul in a primarily countervalue fashion by firing into Seoul instead of primarily aiming at military targets, there would likely be around thirty thousand casualties in a short amount of time. Statistically speaking, almost eight hundred of those casualties would be foreigners given Seoul’s international demographic. Chinese make up almost 70 percent of foreigners in Seoul and its northern environs which means KPA might also kill six hundred Chinese diplomats, multinational corporation leaders and ranking cadre children who are students in Seoul. Horrible, but nothing approaching “millions.”

grover fucked around with this message at Feb 4, 2013 around 16:23

Red Crown
Oct 20, 2008

Pretend my finger's a knife.

What I'm curious about is the state of their mass conscript infantry. I can't imagine they have large quantities of body armor...frankly I wonder if they even have a rifle for every one of them. I imagine the biggest threat to the RoK is a million conscripts swarming over the border. We and the RoK just don't have those numbers readily available.

EVA BRAUN BLOWJOBS
Feb 15, 2005

Puttin' on the Reich




So if the latter scenario was the case, who would China side with?

Ultimate Shrek Fan
May 2, 2005
i had to suck curbcheck's cock to get this account


Do we know what the DRPK has in terms of counter-battery radar? Or detection at all?

psydude
Mar 31, 2008

Perry'd.


The humanitarian crisis in the north that would follow any kind of major military engagement is pretty mind boggling.

psydude
Mar 31, 2008

Perry'd.


Red Crown posted:

What I'm curious about is the state of their mass conscript infantry. I can't imagine they have large quantities of body armor...frankly I wonder if they even have a rifle for every one of them. I imagine the biggest threat to the RoK is a million conscripts swarming over the border. We and the RoK just don't have those numbers readily available.

Mounting a large scale ground attack would be pretty slow because they'd have to breach a 2 mile minefield in order to actually cross the DMZ. After that, they'd have to conduct a river crossing if they wanted to get directly to Seoul because our airforce and combat engineers would have most assuredly destroyed all of the bridges. Given what's been posted about the state of their artillery, I doubt they could put down enough suppression and obscuration to actually breach or bridge and cross before getting chewed up by US and RoK artillery and aircraft.

grover
Jan 23, 2002

PEW PEW PEW







psydude posted:

Mounting a large scale ground attack would be pretty slow because they'd have to breach a 2 mile minefield in order to actually cross the DMZ. After that, they'd have to conduct a river crossing if they wanted to get directly to Seoul because our airforce and combat engineers would have most assuredly destroyed all of the bridges. Given what's been posted about the state of their artillery, I doubt they could put down enough suppression and obscuration to actually breach or bridge and cross before getting chewed up by US and RoK artillery and aircraft.
Their artillery always struck me as less of a tactical threat, and more of a strategic deterrent holding a large swath of RoK hostage as leverage against any sort of RoK/US-initiated action against the North.

not caring here
Feb 22, 2012

blazemastah 2 dry 4 u

Red Crown posted:

What I'm curious about is the state of their mass conscript infantry. I can't imagine they have large quantities of body armor...frankly I wonder if they even have a rifle for every one of them. I imagine the biggest threat to the RoK is a million conscripts swarming over the border. We and the RoK just don't have those numbers readily available.

The zerg swarm of ROK troops isn't actually much of a problem. The tanks are considered the main threat, and, really, they aren't a threat at all. T-54s and poo poo, tanks that can't even move and shoot at the same time up against Abrams, laser guided artillery, and air assets.

Now, assume the zerg rush happens, the ROK has already thought of this. The way from north to south is very mountainous, and you've got what is practically goat trails through the mountains. A tank convoy is literally travelling in a line because they've got no choice. The ROK has lined the mountains with huge swathes of explosives to bring down the mountains on those pathways. You can either use this to stop them from the get go, or to separate their forces. No one is getting through after that any time soon, at which point the NK is subject to naval and air bombardment until they are just a nation of craters.


psydude posted:

The humanitarian crisis in the north that would follow any kind of major military engagement is pretty mind boggling.

A lot of the South Koreans are terrified of unification with the north because of the East / West Germany type scenario; there is a very real possibility that getting the North up to speed with south could result in South Korea's economy never being able to recover. Yep, that's right, never.

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

You're underestimating the power that our bloated military budget has given us.

That Iranian fighter reminds me a bit of the cargo cults that dot little flyspeck pacific islands, building mock-ups of B-29 bombers without understanding what they were building and why. It's pointy and it has angles kinda like an F-22, but it's a nonsensical design that has as much to do with air superiority as I do with being a mallard duck.

As far as NK goes, what I wonder about isn't so much the initial strike as to what the Chinese response would be once the storm breaks. Would they pour supplies into NK hoping for a quick conquest before we could get our poo poo together and destroy the offensive? Or would they pull the plug and then try for as much as they could get in an uncertain aftermath?

not caring here
Feb 22, 2012

blazemastah 2 dry 4 u

Zeroisanumber posted:

As far as NK goes, what I wonder about isn't so much the initial strike as to what the Chinese response would be once the storm breaks. Would they pour supplies into NK hoping for a quick conquest before we could get our poo poo together and destroy the offensive? Or would they pull the plug and then try for as much as they could get in an uncertain aftermath?



I think the latter. China has been very upset with NK provoking other countries and pretty much disowned them. Besides, the South Koreans now have the equipment, training, and manpower to take on North Korea by themselves without US intervention. China getting involved is just a huge complication that they probably just don't want. Getting a slice of territory in return for a US guarantee to gently caress right off would probably just what they wanted.

LEGIT WAR CRIMINAL
Aug 29, 2008

by XyloJW


not caring here posted:

A lot of the South Koreans are terrified of unification with the north because of the East / West Germany type scenario; there is a very real possibility that getting the North up to speed with south could result in South Korea's economy never being able to recover. Yep, that's right, never.

East Germany at the time was the shining jewel of Soviet style communisim. When they wanted to show the world how well their system worked they showed East Germany. German reunification nearly bankrupted West Germany and East Germany still isn't totally caught up over 20 years later. While South Korea is pretty well off they're no West Germany, and North Korea is just a mess. Reunification at anytime in the near future could gently caress up South Korea worse than a war.

LEGIT WAR CRIMINAL
Aug 29, 2008

by XyloJW


not caring here posted:

I think the latter. China has been very upset with NK provoking other countries and pretty much disowned them. Besides, the South Koreans now have the equipment, training, and manpower to take on North Korea by themselves without US intervention. China getting involved is just a huge complication that they probably just don't want. Getting a slice of territory in return for a US guarantee to gently caress right off would probably just what they wanted.

Basically this. China's main concern is they don't want a US presence right on their border. Supposedly China doesn't have any intention of supporting NK in a war as long as the US doesn't move north of the 38th parallel.

GD_American
Jul 21, 2004

SCHWÄRTZESTES HERZ
IN ALEMANIA


not caring here posted:

A lot of the South Koreans are terrified of unification with the north because of the East / West Germany type scenario; there is a very real possibility that getting the North up to speed with south could result in South Korea's economy never being able to recover. Yep, that's right, never.

That's a justifiable (if somewhat selfish and short-sighted) fear. They're not as big an economy as West Germany's, and they'd be swallowing a country that is in far, far, far, far, far worse shape than East Germany was. There's still some lingering Reunification issues in Germany, 20 years later.

e- see I got beaten heartily to that point

grover
Jan 23, 2002

PEW PEW PEW







LEGIT WAR CRIMINAL posted:

Basically this. China's main concern is they don't want a US presence right on their border. Supposedly China doesn't have any intention of supporting NK in a war as long as the US doesn't move north of the 38th parallel.
At this point, I don't think US has any intention of moving north of the 38th parallel, and would be thrilled as hell to be able to pull back a huge expensive force, leaving just a token power projection presence behind in South Korea.

iyaayas01
Feb 19, 2010

Perry'd


psydude posted:

The humanitarian crisis in the north that would follow any kind of major military engagement is pretty mind boggling.

I'll just point out that this is (apparently) a thing.

grover posted:

At this point, I don't think US has any intention of moving north of the 38th parallel, and would be thrilled as hell to be able to pull back a huge expensive force, leaving just a token power projection presence behind in South Korea.

I'm sure we'd be happy to pull EUSA out, but there'd be more than a token power projection force left behind, there's reasons beyond NK that we have airbases in the ROK.

Homie S
Aug 6, 2001

This is what it means

not caring here posted:

A lot of the South Koreans are terrified of unification with the north because of the East / West Germany type scenario; there is a very real possibility that getting the North up to speed with south could result in South Korea's economy never being able to recover. Yep, that's right, never.

Blaine Harden's book Escape from Prison 14 talks about this. The economic impacts that it would incur would be extremely costly, not to mention the book suggests that South Korea as a culture has no desire to attempt to take on North Korea's problems. It even suggests that politicians have realized this and, even though every 10-15 years the North really pushes the limits of starting a conflict with the South, would never try to reunify with the North.

Not to get off topic, but the book is a pretty fascinating one. It's a story about a boy born in one of the North Korean gulag political prisons, raised to distrust others and take daily physical and mental punishments, and eventually his ultimate escape and onward life outside North Korea. Very extraordinary story, and the hardships endured by the man are unimaginable. The book also touches on his current struggles to fit into a world that he has a hard time grasping because of the treatment and brainwashing by his captors. I'm fascinated by North Korea, it's something that's so foreign and so hard to really understand that I gravitate towards the weirdness that comes out of it, the internet driven counter culture ('things Kim Jong Il looks at', etc), and how they have such a number of people locked up in these places doing things that Nazi Germany couldn't think up. Anyways, a good read for anyone who is interested in that sort of thing.

http://www.amazon.com/Escape-Camp-1...y/dp/0670023329

Also there's the story of Eric Schmidt's daughter and her recent trip to North Korea (stolen from the GBS thread) for the latest circus they threw for their delegation:

https://sites.google.com/site/sophieinnorthkorea/home

particle409
Jan 15, 2008

Thou bootless clapper-clawed varlot!



How do you push the buttons on the right side? The pilot can't even see half of them.

Baloogan
Dec 5, 2004

I have a dream, that I may one day post in a forum where a goon may be judged not by the color of his avatar, but by the content of his posts!

They shouldn't show people their lovely mockup cockpit. The aircraft's outsides look okay from a distance, the cockpit is just terrible even for a mockup.

buttplug
Aug 28, 2004


not caring here posted:

The zerg swarm of ROK troops isn't actually much of a problem. The tanks are considered the main threat, and, really, they aren't a threat at all. T-54s and poo poo, tanks that can't even move and shoot at the same time up against Abrams, laser guided artillery, and air assets.

Now, assume the zerg rush happens, the ROK has already thought of this. The way from north to south is very mountainous, and you've got what is practically goat trails through the mountains. A tank convoy is literally travelling in a line because they've got no choice. The ROK has lined the mountains with huge swathes of explosives to bring down the mountains on those pathways. You can either use this to stop them from the get go, or to separate their forces. No one is getting through after that any time soon, at which point the NK is subject to naval and air bombardment until they are just a nation of craters.
le to recover. Yep, that's right, never.

Assuming they can actually make it far enough down south. First off, they would have to cross the Han. If all hell broke loose, the ROK is prepared to detonate every single bridge into the city. Several of the larger ones (4 lanes vice 2) are pre-rigged with charges and have been for years. That river is a quarter mile wide, good luck crossing it without a bridge.

Additionally, most of their conventional military is so malnourished I'd be surprised if more than three quarters of them physically made it far enough to pose a threat. They don't have enough mobility to move such a large force, some of them would have to hump it on foot. I've spoken to several defectors (Os and Es) who say that most of them are so malnourished that they can barely make it through 30min of light calisthenics in the morning without passing out. Their "200,000-strong SOF force" is more akin to the USMC, training-wise, but still armed with 60s and 70s tech.

Lastly, their "ten thousand pieces of artillery" is such old garbage, that it's estimated only around 10% of it is actually in good enough shape to fire with any degree of accuracy. Yes, they have numbers on their side, but that means very little when it's Soviet-era technology. Their pilots get less flight time in a year (fuel shortage and all) than the US's average student pilots get in a month of training. When all is said and done, I don't think numbers mean poo poo - we could lay waste to pretty much anything they can throw at us.

Anybody who has exercised either OPLAN and seen how the computer simulations stack the odds (giving them every possible break and advantage possible) knows that they would ultimately be decimated within the first 45-60 days.

China doesn't give a rat's gently caress about nK, the only thing they care about is the US encroaching their territory. I'm sure if poo poo hit the fan, the US would communicate to China their intentions and I highly, highly doubt China would push back. All they want is that sovereignty buffer to remain in place.

buttplug fucked around with this message at Feb 4, 2013 around 09:48

ded
Oct 27, 2005

Kooler than Jesus

China supports the DPRK for one main reason. They don't want even more refugees than they already get from them.

grover
Jan 23, 2002

PEW PEW PEW







More photos of Iran's Qaher-313 Stealth Fighter. No new high-res images, sadly. I hope they surface soon.











GD_American
Jul 21, 2004

SCHWÄRTZESTES HERZ
IN ALEMANIA


Well if nothing else, we've got a new villain aircraft in the next Ace Combat.

grover
Jan 23, 2002

PEW PEW PEW







Where are the access panels for engine maintenance? Or avionics maintenance? Surely it can't *all* be done through the landing gear bays- I mean, F-22 and F-35 do that to the greatest extent possible, but you can't maintain an engine in an aircraft like that without being able to access it.

Iran's made large improvements in their model-building department, but they need to pay attention to the little details if they want the world to think they actually built a fighter.

grover fucked around with this message at Feb 4, 2013 around 15:22

DrCuntmuffins
Nov 10, 2011

by Y Kant Ozma Post


It just _looks_ impractical. The amount of thrust required to get that thing off the ground and stable would have to be comparable to a Eurofighters avionics and thrust vectoring/computer controlled fins..

I just dont think Iran has the manpower or technological know-how to do something like that without any outside help and without any public leaking. When the YF22 and YF23 were in development, there was so much speculation and random pictures and poo poo everywhere. This new plane has pretty much appeared, magically, fully assembled and tested (unconfirmed) without any sort of precursor...

It just strikes me as odd.

Booblord Zagats
Oct 30, 2011

Bump Patrol! Tyrone needs a Shave Chit!
Bump Patrol! Tyrone needs a Shave Chit!
Bump Patrol! Tyrone needs a Shave Chit!

"Looks like someone in Iran got a copy of X-Plane 9 and a 3D printer" - My brother, just now

grover
Jan 23, 2002

PEW PEW PEW







buttplug posted:

Lastly, their "ten thousand pieces of artillery" is such old garbage, that it's estimated only around 10% of it is actually in good enough shape to fire with any degree of accuracy. Yes, they have numbers on their side, but that means very little when it's Soviet-era technology. Their pilots get less flight time in a year (fuel shortage and all) than the US's average student pilots get in a month of training. When all is said and done, I don't think numbers mean poo poo - we could lay waste to pretty much anything they can throw at us.
Does accuracy really matter when the majority of their artillery force is essentially a strategic deterrent? I mean, a century of wear and deterioration probably hasn't done wonders for CEP much of the WWI surplus artillery DPRK considers part of their active stockpile, but are they still accurate enough to aim for a city and land rounds somewhere in that city most of the time?

The 10% that's assumed accurate is still a lot of artillery pieces. Plenty enough to put a shitload of rounds into tactical targets like Camp Casey or massing US/RoK troop formations.

Bonus photo of some DPRK self-propelled artillery near the Chinese border:

grover fucked around with this message at Feb 4, 2013 around 16:32

Obama Africanus
Sep 9, 2001

If we can't get them out, we'll breed them out.


buttplug posted:

Assuming they can actually make it far enough down south. First off, they would have to cross the Han. If all hell broke loose, the ROK is prepared to detonate every single bridge into the city. Several of the larger ones (4 lanes vice 2) are pre-rigged with charges and have been for years. That river is a quarter mile wide, good luck crossing it without a bridge.

Additionally, most of their conventional military is so malnourished I'd be surprised if more than three quarters of them physically made it far enough to pose a threat. They don't have enough mobility to move such a large force, some of them would have to hump it on foot. I've spoken to several defectors (Os and Es) who say that most of them are so malnourished that they can barely make it through 30min of light calisthenics in the morning without passing out. Their "200,000-strong SOF force" is more akin to the USMC, training-wise, but still armed with 60s and 70s tech.

Lastly, their "ten thousand pieces of artillery" is such old garbage, that it's estimated only around 10% of it is actually in good enough shape to fire with any degree of accuracy. Yes, they have numbers on their side, but that means very little when it's Soviet-era technology. Their pilots get less flight time in a year (fuel shortage and all) than the US's average student pilots get in a month of training. When all is said and done, I don't think numbers mean poo poo - we could lay waste to pretty much anything they can throw at us.

Anybody who has exercised either OPLAN and seen how the computer simulations stack the odds (giving them every possible break and advantage possible) knows that they would ultimately be decimated within the first 45-60 days.

China doesn't give a rat's gently caress about nK, the only thing they care about is the US encroaching their territory. I'm sure if poo poo hit the fan, the US would communicate to China their intentions and I highly, highly doubt China would push back. All they want is that sovereignty buffer to remain in place.

I hate you for this, but you're pretty much spot on. I just threw up in my mouth a little thinking about how I agree with you.

Also the idea that the military complex in NK would actually undertake an offensive on the south is pretty.. I guess spurious is the word I would use. While that chubby son of KJI's nominally has absolute power in that country, his actual command/control of NK's military isn't widely thought to be absolute. There isn't much between fatty and a coup on any given day in the DPRK..The higher ups in their military just want poo poo to be good for themselves, and there is a great deal of evidence that they're well aware that they don't have the ability to wage a war.

Even money says that if tubs mcjongun tried to spark an invasion of the south, he'd wind up dead at the hands of some generals.

GD_American
Jul 21, 2004

SCHWÄRTZESTES HERZ
IN ALEMANIA


http://theaviationist.com/2013/02/0...tealth-fighter/

http://gizmodo.com/5981525/why-iran...n=recirculation

iyaayas01
Feb 19, 2010

Perry'd


buttplug posted:

China doesn't give a rat's gently caress about nK, the only thing they care about is the US encroaching their territory. I'm sure if poo poo hit the fan, the US would communicate to China their intentions and I highly, highly doubt China would push back. All they want is that sovereignty buffer to remain in place.

One quibble...China has quite a few economic interests in North Korea, particularly close to the border, and particularly regarding natural resources/raw materials. Given their government's mercantilist nature, I don't see them letting that slip away (although they could give a gently caress whether the Kim regime stays intact). Fortunately most of the interests are within the same area that they would want as a sovereignty buffer, so it seems likely that as long as everyone communicates their intentions appropriately and no one does anything unbelievably stupid (like the U.S. sending forces north or the ROK telling China to gently caress off) the situation should resolve itself in an uneventful manner...relatively speaking.

GAS CURES KIKES posted:

Even money says that if tubs mcjongun tried to spark an invasion of the south, he'd wind up dead at the hands of some generals.

Also likely that if that happened there'd be a subsequent civil war in conjunction with the coup/assassination...with all the awesome humanitarian disaster and loose WMDs that would go along with that.

the yellow dart
Jul 19, 2004

King of rings, armlocks, hugs, and our hearts

GAS CURES KIKES posted:

Even money says that if tubs mcjongun tried to spark an invasion of the south, he'd wind up dead at the hands of some generals.

Ironic that you say this because one of the things we worried about in Korea was that KJI (at the time) was one of the few things holding back those old KIS no-poo poo revolutionary communists that believed it was their patriotic duty to roll south regardless of the human cost. Some of those dudes are in their 80s/90s and they still want the red revolution to continue (also they are insane).

Obama Africanus
Sep 9, 2001

If we can't get them out, we'll breed them out.


If you look at the current generation of generals, you've actually got a smaller number of the crazies we worried about from the 80's-early 2000's. They've been dying off or being subverted/replaced. The real power structure in that countries military apparatus is much more akin to Pakistan than to the old revolutionaries. (I.E. They control industries and are much more concerned with holding onto their power/piece of the DPRK pie)

KJI knew that KJU was going to have to get the buy in or at least enough muscle to pass muster with those guys, which is why his ascension featured so much time with the military, and why you saw various high level defense types get purged following KJI's death. KJU wasn't able to get the military 100% bought in on his becoming the supreme leader-- but enough party power brokers from his father and grandfathers era were around to help him purge the most dangerous elements of the military high command.

It could reasonably be said that the military leadership and political leadership in DPRK coexist in a delicate relationship. It will take years for KJU to effectively wrest complete control over his military and its leaders.. in the meantime, they're probably doing a bangup job forcing him to do poo poo he has no interest in doing while he's doing a bangup job trying to use their pressures to shore up his domestic issues.

The entire interplay is... scary, if it's thought about for too long.

Oxford Comma
Jun 26, 2011
Probation
Can't post for 23 hours!


Oh, North Korea.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...der-attack.html

The part showing NY getting destroyed is from MW3.

grover
Jan 23, 2002

PEW PEW PEW







Oxford Comma posted:

Oh, North Korea.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...der-attack.html

The part showing NY getting destroyed is from MW3.
Hahahaha, the youtube DPRK uploaded got pulled because of copyright infringement

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKWJSKYBDXE

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Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

You're underestimating the power that our bloated military budget has given us.

Oxford Comma posted:

Oh, North Korea.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...der-attack.html

The part showing NY getting destroyed is from MW3.

They have early-90's era video editing technology and muzak... we don't stand a chance.

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