Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Tomorrow is going to be a big day for Janet yellen.

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-20/jackson-hole-rally-at-risk-as-investors-preempt-yellen.html

Optimists (like me when it comes to the us economy) think she'll continue to keep the USD cheap. This will probably mean that she thinks the us economy needs a little more gas before easing off the accelerator next year.

This probably means that imports will be more expensive in Canada as our economy keeps slowing down because of low commodity prices and lack of demand from China and as US inflation goes up due to increased enjoyment and growing wages.

On the other hand, yellen might decide to ease off the monetary pedal now which would send equities downward, and hurt lending in the us. In which, consumers start buying less which kills Canadian exports which shows the economy even faster.

# ? Aug 22, 2014 07:11

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# ? Apr 28, 2024 23:31

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Hey Rime, Peter Banana, why don't you guys buy a town?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bradian-b-c-former-mining-town-up-for-sale-1.2743682

quote:

If property prices are getting you down, you could become the proud owner of an entire town for about the same price as a home in a big city like Vancouver or Toronto.

Bradian, B.C. � 22 houses sitting on 20 hectares � is on the market for just under $1 million.

And while most ghost towns are fairly remote, Bradian is only about 109 kilometres north of Whistler, B.C.

Realtor John Lovelace says there has been lots of interest since he put up the listing.

�We�ve just been inundated," he told CBC Radio's On the Coast during a recent interview. "I think there's been somewhere between 30 and 35 calls, emails and texts."

A major fixer-upper

The seller is a family that used Bradian as a place to take holidays and work on the buildings.

Lovelace says it was a great family bonding experience, but the children are grown and the family now wants to pass the property to somebody else.

But, he warns, while the location is one of the most beautiful, scenic areas in British Columbia you'll ever find, the town is a fixer-upper on a big scale.

"There�s a great deal of work that has to be done."

Lovelace says the homes are in pretty rough shape.

"They were abandoned back around 1970, and the issue is they had some decay and water ingress, and the main infrastructure insofar as the sewers and all that were built to 1931 standards," he said.

"Don�t bring a paint can and a paint brush and expect to double your money, because this is a long-term initiative and the purchase price would probably be the least of your expenses."

Bradian was built by the owners of a gold mine in neighbouring Bralorne that shut down 30 years ago. However, Lovelace says the gold mine recently started up again.

"I think they have 60 people back working there. So there�s still gold in them there hills."

Oh yeah sure there is. What's the venture exchange code for that?

# ? Aug 22, 2014 17:00

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

I go up to Bralorne annually to crawl around in the abandoned mines. :black101:

Most of Bradian looks like this inside:

Bradian by Lyreem, on Flickr

Bradian Basement by Lyreem, on Flickr

There's a reason nobody is going to pay $1.5 Million for the place, (the owners bought it for like $30k back in the day), and it's not just because you can't even get there for five months of the year. It's straight up inaccessible.

While there is a surprising number of young people living up there now, and the whole Bridge River actually a pretty rad place (if you like that climate and old timey ghost town vibes), I'd never actually buy something there. I often use the fact that lovely mining cabins in Bralorne, which were abandoned for forty years, are going for over $150k as an example of how hosed real estate is in this province.

Kitsault, Ocean Falls, or even bloody Namu are all better places to pour money down the drain.

Rime fucked around with this message at 21:42 on Aug 22, 2014

# ? Aug 22, 2014 18:01

Baronjutter: Dec 31, 2007; "Tiny Trains"

I want to buy an abandoned mine and pretend to be a dwarf. Strike the earth.

# ? Aug 22, 2014 18:13

ocrumsprug: Sep 23, 2010; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Cultural Imperial posted:

Hey Rime, Peter Banana, why don't you guys buy a town?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bradian-b-c-former-mining-town-up-for-sale-1.2743682

Oh yeah sure there is. What's the venture exchange code for that?

Quick! Someone dig up the rotting corpse of Murray Pezim, and lets get this show on the road.

:zombie:

# ? Aug 22, 2014 18:18

peter banana: Sep 2, 2008; Feminism is a socialist, anti-family, political movement that encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcraft, destroy capitalism and become lesbians.

I demand our town be a socialist utopia funded by by gold :c00lbert:

We could be what Canada should have been.

# ? Aug 22, 2014 18:24

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

In which a Goon rejects sound financial advice

quote:

Toronto is crap for renters, which is one of the reasons we're looking to buy, but its also crap for buyers so, there we go. Rent on a place like we are looking to buy would be out of our price range, about 80-90% of our net monthly income, while buying is absolutely nowhere near that high.

Even goons can be willfully ignorant. Even goons. :negative:

# ? Aug 22, 2014 18:50

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

I don't see you with any pride of ownership. Go back to the salt mines rentailure.

# ? Aug 22, 2014 18:58

ocrumsprug: Sep 23, 2010; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Rime posted:

In which a Goon rejects sound financial advice

Even goons can be willfully ignorant. Even goons.

Any bets on what cost he isn't calculating into his condo purchase is cheaper than renting equation?

:10bux:

on the strata fee.

# ? Aug 22, 2014 19:18

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

Well he thinks buying pre-construction is a good idea despite that fiasco we were discussing on the last page, so yeah.

VVVV: I always just assumed it was a more adult, and potentially destituting, manifestation of the same kind of need for instant gratification that causes people to still pre-order videogames. :shrug:

Rime fucked around with this message at 19:29 on Aug 22, 2014

# ? Aug 22, 2014 19:21

ocrumsprug: Sep 23, 2010; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

The fact that I can purchase a unit in the build the day it actually opens, and probably pay the same as the pre-purchase amount (or 3-5 years of cost of opportunity on your deposit) is the only reason you need to not buy one.

Anything else is just more reasons to not do an extremely stupid thing.

Seriously I don't get it the appeal. Is it just that people think they need to lock in the price because it will be worth that much more in 3-5 years?

# ? Aug 22, 2014 19:26

Twiin: Nov 11, 2003; King of Suck!

Rime posted:

I always just assumed it was a more adult, and potentially destituting, manifestation of the same kind of need for instant gratification that causes people to still pre-order videogames.

You get extra stuff when you pre-order videogames.

# ? Aug 22, 2014 19:32

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

Don't some of these places give you a discount on a car now?

Edit: Man, it took me four hours to remember that your avatar is a pirate flag. It was seriously bugging me for a while, trying to figure out where I'd seen it before.

Rime fucked around with this message at 23:33 on Aug 22, 2014

# ? Aug 22, 2014 19:46

Rutibex: Sep 9, 2001; by Fluffdaddy

Twiin posted:

You get extra stuff when you pre-order videogames.

Pre purchase your yet to be constructed condo now and receive a T-poo poo featuring the rooftop pool, an artbook with various architectural concepts drawn by Akira Toriyama, and a lovely resin bust of the foreman in charge of construction!

order now supplies are limited

# ? Aug 22, 2014 20:05

JawKnee: Mar 24, 2007; You'll take the ride to leave this town along that yellow line

Rime posted:

VVVV: I always just assumed it was a more adult, and potentially destituting, manifestation of the same kind of need for instant gratification that causes people to still pre-order videogames.

One time, Mass Effect 3, NEVER AGAIN

# ? Aug 22, 2014 21:30

FrozenVent: May 1, 2009; The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.

ocrumsprug posted:

Seriously I don't get it the appeal. Is it just that people think they need to lock in the price because it will be worth that much more in 3-5 years?

That, and they're afraid we're going to run out of condo.

# ? Aug 22, 2014 22:40

Lead out in cuffs: Sep 18, 2012; "That's right. We've evolved."

"I can see that. Cool mutations."

Cultural Imperial posted:

I don't see you with any pride of ownership. Go back to the ~~salt~~ abandoned gold mines north of Whistler rentailure.

# ? Aug 22, 2014 22:45

Baronjutter: Dec 31, 2007; "Tiny Trains"

Building less condos means we're hitting peak condo, and from there the existing stock of condos can only go up in value.

# ? Aug 22, 2014 23:16

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

GUARANTEED INVESTMENT RETURNS HOLLLLLLAAAAAAAAAAA

# ? Aug 23, 2014 00:45

Baronjutter: Dec 31, 2007; "Tiny Trains"

Seriously is there no way to regulate ridiculous claims like that?

# ? Aug 23, 2014 01:04

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Baronjutter posted:

Seriously is there no way to regulate ridiculous claims like that?

Son, you're talking about restraining 34% of Canada's GDP - the FIRE of the Economy. If you're going to impose BIG GOVERNMENT on

# ? Aug 23, 2014 01:06

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ashboard/alerts

quote:

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said the economy has �lots of room to grow,� suggesting a spate of stronger data points won�t sway the central bank from its plan to leave interest rates unchanged at least until well into next year.

Mr. Poloz made the comments in an interview Friday, after Statistics Canada reported milder inflation and stronger-than- expected retail sales. At the same time, the vast majority of jobs created this year in Canada are part-time positions, a phenomenon that Mr. Poloz said is a �symptom of slack� in the labour market. That argues in favour of maintaining a policy of low borrowing costs, as the economy is a long way from putting pressure on inflation.

�If the economy took off like a rocket, it would still have room to grow and the way things have been, there is a lot of room to grow,� Mr. Poloz told The Globe and Mail at the Kansas City Fed�s annual economics symposium in the shadow of Wyoming�s Grand Teton mountains.

The remarks are the central bank governor�s first since the Bank of Canada released its latest economic update a month ago. At the time, policy makers were apprehensive about the United States, concluding that the world�s largest economy had lost some momentum during a tough winter.

The Bank of Canada also took pains to explain why it was leaving interest rates low even though inflation had breached its 2-per-cent target, using the policy report to predict the price increases were transitory. It suggested it could be two years before Canada�s economy is growing fast enough to stoke inflation.

Mr. Poloz makes a habit of avoiding comment on specific indicators. He did grant that the data he has observed over the past month �feels roughly right,� in that it aligns with the economic trajectory the central bank foresaw at the time. �We�ve had some trade data that were okay, the inflation data from today sort of fit the story,� he said.

On Friday, StatsCan said the Consumer Price Index was 2.1 per cent higher in July than a month earlier, slower than June�s annual inflation rate of 2.3 per cent. Prices for automobiles, gasoline and clothes all declined markedly last month.

All things equal, slower inflation will take the pressure off the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates � something Mr. Poloz has made clear he has little interest in doing any time soon. Canada�s economy has fallen into a rut, as exporters struggle to boost sales and businesses prove reluctant to invest. Canadian employers have created few full-time jobs this year.

Perhaps the most important development since the Bank of Canada�s last economic checkup is a steady string of stronger-than-expected indicators showing the U.S. economy rebounded sharply from a contraction at the start of the year. Mr. Poloz has made clear that an export revival must lead Canada out of its current economic doldrums and the U.S. is by far Canada�s largest trading partner.

Unusually snowy and frigid weather shocked the U.S. in the first quarter. Yet the Commerce Department now says the contraction wasn�t as severe as first thought. More important, Commerce�s initial estimate of gross domestic product in the second quarter put growth at an annual rate of 4 per cent, which would more than reverse the 2.1-per-cent contraction in the first three months of the year.

On the surface, Mr. Poloz said the rebound suggests the U.S. economy more than made up ground. However, he said the Bank of Canada�s analysis would be more thorough than comparing the headline number from the first quarter with that of the second. �Those two numbers are not enough,� he said. The governing council will assess the strength of the U.S. economy by digging in to get a better understanding of the housing market, trade and whether bigger inventories reflect demand or seasonal factors.

The Bank of Canada is relying on exports and business investment to lift economic growth because it assumes consumers essentially are tapped out. Canada�s households have been spending at a strong rate for years, racking up an uncomfortable level of debt in the process.

There still is life in consumer demand, however. StatsCan also reported Friday that retail sales rose 1.1 per cent in June, a strong gain that was bigger than most Bay Street analysts were expected and better than the previous month�s 0.9 per cent increase.

KEEP BUYING poo poo MOTHERFUCKERS

# ? Aug 23, 2014 01:11

on the left: Nov 2, 2013; I Am A Gigantic Piece Of Shit

Literally poo from a diseased human butt

Baronjutter posted:

Seriously is there no way to regulate ridiculous claims like that?

It's not a ridiculous claim, since the developer is referring to the returns it plans to receive from idiot investors.

It's just like when banks have advertising materials that advertise yachts and golfing all day, the bank is showing you what they will do once they have your money.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 01:36

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Found this parked in my condo parking lot. TAPPIN DAT HOUSE EQUITY YALL

# ? Aug 26, 2014 04:06

Lexicon: Jul 29, 2003; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Cultural Imperial posted:

Found this parked in my condo parking lot. TAPPIN DAT HOUSE EQUITY YALL

That does not strike me as the fruits of heloc borrowing. More like nouveau riche or trust fund spendin'.

The heloc people are too busy renovating kitchens and buying condo presales.

# ? Aug 26, 2014 06:02

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Meanwhile, in China.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/08/losers-riot-over-falling-chinese-house-prices/

quote:

Anyone that tracked the last downturn in Chinese property in 2011 will recall that riots broke out as developers discounted. It�s begun again. From MarketWatch:

In one case, scores of property owners surrounded a Shanghai sales office of Greentown China Holdings Ltd. 3900, +7.19% GTWCF, -33.19% to protest the developer�s 25% cut to prices within a five-day period, according to a report on the NetEase NTES, +2.06% news portal site 163.com.

Protesters held banners with slogans such as �You cheated us!��

�In the eastern city of Jinan, banner-carrying owners blocked a street to protest another 25% price cut for a local housing development, this one conducted over the space of two weeks, according to the local-government-run Life Daily newspaper.

The protesters clashed with a group of counter-protestors suspected to have been hired by local developers, injuring some of the demonstrators�

It�s going to get worse!

# ? Aug 26, 2014 14:57

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Deutsche Bank hates Canada

# ? Aug 26, 2014 15:01

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

China's housing market is in deep-rear end poo poo.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e60b...t#axzz3BVUMEGGr

quote:

China�s tottering property market presents one of the greatest threats to the global economy. Not only do the construction and real estate industries account for a full 13 per cent of Chinese gross domestic product, they also form the backbone of the country�s fixed asset investment, the lodestar for commodity-exporting economies the world over. News of sagging real estate market activity is, therefore, a concern in its own right. More troubling, though, is that faith in Beijing�s ability to prevent a slump from descending into a crash is starting to unravel.

The newsflow is bleak. Official statistics for July showed 64 of 70 cities surveyed experiencing falling home prices, the biggest monthly proportion of declines since records began in 2005. Developers are pulling back from new investments, and floor space sold in July tumbled 16.3 per cent year on year, down sharply from June.

Such deepening frailties set up the prospect of six months of make or break for Chinese real estate, according to Stephen Green of Standard Chartered in Hong Kong. He and several other analysts predict that Beijing will try to prevent a crash, but there are doubts over the effectiveness of any such intervention. The main problem is that banks, squeezed by huge deposit outflows and dwindling fee incomes as their shadow finance activities are curtailed, have less appetite to lend to property and other industries beset by overcapacity and slowing growth.

Leaden market responses also bedevil the efforts of local governments. Since early June, 36 cities have eased official �home purchase restrictions� to boost property sales as developers cut prices. But sales in June and July slumped nevertheless, and early signs suggest that August sales are also sluggish. Indeed, some local government initiatives, such as one by the southwestern province of Sichuan to subsidise banks to induce them to make mortgage loans, have been scrapped after failing to elicit a response. Data collected by China Confidential, a research service at the Financial Times, show a relentless squeeze in mortgage lending to homebuyers that has tightened progressively all year.

Of course, Beijing�s armoury of policy options remains powerful. To mention a few, it can cut interest rates, boost liquidity by slashing banks� reserve requirements and use the central bank to inject money into the financial system. But these measures risk exacerbating the very problems of overcapacity and asset bubbles that Beijing has insisted on addressing.

On one level, China�s property market is a domestic issue. On another, it illustrates how vulnerable the developing world is to its internal convulsions. Several sub-Saharan African nations as well as Colombia, Chile, Russia, Brazil, India and Peru could all be clobbered by a slump in demand for the base metals and other commodity exports for which China is the world�s price setter.

The size of China�s property boom � and therefore the fallout from any crash � is awe-inspiring. In just two years, 2011 and 2012, China produced more cement than the US did in the entire 20th century. Total credit to GDP grew from 140 per cent in 2008 to more than 250 per cent at the end of June, with much of the increase in mortgage loans. More than 90 per cent of urban households already own at least one home, and for those households that own apartments, nearly 76 per cent of their assets are in real estate, according to Gan Li, director of the Survey and Research Centre for China Household Finance in China.

For its own sake and for that of the wider developing world, Beijing should redouble efforts to ensure a soft landing in its real estate market. As the US Federal Reserve turns more hawkish, the last thing the global economy needs is a Chinese property crash.

# ? Aug 26, 2014 15:11

Aagar: Mar 30, 2006; E/N Gestapo
I am talking to a mod right now about getting you probated/banned/gassed

Cultural Imperial posted:

postin' dis for posterity

Update from the CBC today

Sounds like Meerai Cho is temporarily suspended pending charges in the Centrium condo scandal. The Toronto police had a news conference at 2 pm but haven't seen anything on said conference yet.

Edit: Update from NewsTalk 1010. 75 charges laid by Toronto police.

Aagar fucked around with this message at 19:46 on Aug 26, 2014

# ? Aug 26, 2014 19:41

Saltin: Aug 20, 2003; Don't touch

Cultural Imperial posted:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ashboard/alerts

KEEP BUYING poo poo MOTHERFUCKERS

The Canadian Fed doesn't honestly think that is a way out of the problem. The truth, which they know well, is that the Canadian consumer is tapped out on housing and consumer debt. No savings. If Canada is going to get out of this poo poo it's got to be exports and business. This is why they will need to watch the interest rate so closely - its direct affect on FX and the affect FX has on exports/business.

It's not going to work well, but it's better than counting on the consumer.

# ? Aug 26, 2014 20:57

JawKnee: Mar 24, 2007; You'll take the ride to leave this town along that yellow line

unless we can get consumers spending without going deeper into debt

# ? Aug 26, 2014 21:55

Rutibex: Sep 9, 2001; by Fluffdaddy

JawKnee posted:

unless we can get consumers spending without going deeper into debt

But but BUT that would require higher wages :eyepop:

# ? Aug 26, 2014 21:58

cowofwar: Jul 30, 2002; by Athanatos

No guys it's totally a supply side problem. We need to decrease corporate taxes.

# ? Aug 26, 2014 22:05

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Higher wages hurt small businesses. Even allowing employees to hold the hostage.

# ? Aug 26, 2014 22:51

EvilJoven: Mar 18, 2005; NOBODY,IN THE HISTORY OF EVER, HAS ASKED OR CARED WHAT CANADA THINKS. YOU ARE NOT A COUNTRY. YOUR MONEY HAS THE QUEEN OF ENGLAND ON IT. IF YOU DIG AROUND IN YOUR BACKYARD, NATIVE SKELETONS WOULD EXPLODE OUT OF YOUR LAWN LIKE THE END OF POLTERGEIST. CANADA IS SO POLITE, EH?; Fun Shoe

Saltin posted:

If Canada is going to get out of this poo poo it's got to be exports and business.

KEEP BUYING poo poo OTHER MOTHERFUCKERS

# ? Aug 26, 2014 23:28

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

Saltin posted:

The Canadian Fed doesn't honestly think that is a way out of the problem. The truth, which they know well, is that the Canadian consumer is tapped out on housing and consumer debt. No savings. If Canada is going to get out of this poo poo it's got to be exports and business.

Fun fact: this is also the case in pretty much every country in the world that has any kind of functional/developed economy! Something something everybody trying to do the same thing at once something something.

# ? Aug 26, 2014 23:55

JawKnee: Mar 24, 2007; You'll take the ride to leave this town along that yellow line

Rutibex posted:

But but BUT that would require higher wages

The horror! :v:

CI, has Seattle imploded yet from the $15 minimum wage?

# ? Aug 27, 2014 00:00

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

JawKnee posted:

The horror!

CI, has Seattle imploded yet from the $15 minimum wage?

Haha funny you should ask. Unintended effect is that surrounding areas like Tacoma and Everett are reporting workers driving to seattle to work in service industry. No reports of labour shortages yet though.

# ? Aug 27, 2014 00:04

ocrumsprug: Sep 23, 2010; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Saltin posted:

The Canadian Fed doesn't honestly think that is a way out of the problem. The truth, which they know well, is that the Canadian consumer is tapped out on housing and consumer debt. No savings. If Canada is going to get out of this poo poo it's got to be exports and business. This is why they will need to watch the interest rate so closely - its direct affect on FX and the affect FX has on exports/business.

It's not going to work well, but it's better than counting on the consumer.

With everyone in Canada spending the last ten years investing every penny in real estate, hoping for business to carry the day is going to pretty forlorn.

I am actually hoping to vultch some boomer's business no one can afford as well as a house in the next few years.

# ? Aug 27, 2014 02:54

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# ? Apr 28, 2024 23:31

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

I like the way you think. Theoretically, what's the most malicious way to profit from the up coming crash?

# ? Aug 27, 2014 03:20

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

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