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unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008

Dolash posted:

Psh, look at all those big numbers. Looks like some people don't know about the joys of living in Fredericton, New Brunswick! Two-storey in a nice, residential district that backs on to a park and is ten minutes from everywhere? 150,000.

The tradeoff: You have to live in Fredericton, New Brunswick.
I'd love to move to Fredericton. Got lots of extended family there.
Too bad there are no jobs. :sigh:

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unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008

Cultural Imperial posted:

ok, rough back of the napkin calculation; ~500 for each 100k borrowed, 25 year amortization, 5% interest payments. That means she would have had a monthly payment of $3250. Of course, she probably got a sweet deal and is paying $2600 or so on a 40 year amortization 3% interest mortgage? At 45k/year, that's more than 50% of her monthly take home income. How the gently caress do you live on that?
Well, she's putting that money into a mortgage. So really, it's like putting half her net income into an investment vehicle she can live in and also it has a guaranteed ROI of like a thousand percent.

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008
I'm mostly concerned about all the people on 4% variable rate mortgages, who will have to fork out a couple hundred bucks every month if our interest rates return to historical norms. There are lots of houses here in Southern Ontario where their valuation just does not reflect the fundamentals in any way -- $400,000 townhouses sandwiched between two highways and a Pearson International flyover. Even a 1% increase on a $350,000 is killer.

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008
Neither does population growth. Population has only grown by 10% since 2000 but the housing prices have more than doubled :downs:

I don't understand how anyone can look at the Vancouver market, see that the fundamentals simply do not support current prices, and then claim that this isn't a bubble.

e:
Looks like median household income in Metro Vancouver increased by 26.6% between 2001 & 2011. Overall inflation is around 2% per year during that period.

unlimited shrimp fucked around with this message at 21:34 on Feb 20, 2013

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008

jet sanchEz posted:

Toronto and Montreal are not bounded by the mountains, there is literally not enough land to go around in Vancouver. I realize that Montreal is an island but Montreal sprawls all over the place, as does Toronto. If you look back at property values in the US back when the poo poo started to hit the fan, prices in Manhattan actually went up. Also, Vancouver is not the best place in the world to live but that is for another thread.
Does Vancouver have some ordinance about not building condos or apartment buildings? If a lovely bungalow is cresting $1,000,000 then maybe it's time to start tearing down the suburbs and putting up tower blocks.

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008
For what it's worth, I just received an email from a realtor with subject line "The Real Estate Market In the GTA Is Still Healhty!!"

The email goes on to reassure me that, though sales are down and number of unoccupied units are up, the Toronto market is still a seller's market and prices will increase steadily over the next year. Maybe more people are murmuring than I thought, if agents are starting to send out reassuring emails.

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008

Baronjutter posted:

Other than this thread everyone is telling me the price-dip is over (in Victoria) and NOW is the time to buy because the economy is heating up and everything is going to start going up soon. This is the low! Buy NOW!!

I tell them I want to wait at least a year, save up more, and hopefully get a lower price. They laugh at me and say things like "oh you must buy those doom and gloom cranks on the internet? They've been saying the bubble's going to burst for the last decade!" and tell me I'll be renting a tiny basement suite for the rest of my life if I'm waiting for a crash.
Every time I hear something like that, I look at this picture and giggle uncontrollably:

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008
Do houses really only appreciate at 2%/yr on average?

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008
Average house prices have outpaced inflation for thirty years running in ON and BC, though. Things have gone kinda haywire since 2001, especially in BC, but I don't see much evidence of housing prices in either province averaging at or below inflation.

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008
I think as a general rule, if the author ends a factoid with an exclamation mark, or uses a phrase like "make it big", then you should know that you're being sold something.

I'm genuinely depressed at the notion of someone who can simultaneously be persuaded by that article, is a first time home buyer, and can afford a house in Vancouver. I assume they either inherited or won their downpayment in the lottery.

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008
Shared kitchens (and bathrooms) are always bullshit drama magnets because nobody wants to keep them clean and that leads to things like chore wheels for 23 year olds. :smithicide:

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008

Mr. Wynand posted:

Yes, clearly we must let go of our primitive expectations of privacy and personal space and move on to this sort of post-modern communal living arrangement as a response to the rising cost of housing. It is clearly the best choice. Well other then bringing the prices back down of course, but why don't you try to just sort of change the way you live before we start going crazy with exotic ideas about affordable housing.

Urgh.
Not to split hairs but isn't the primitive expectation for communal living, with expectations of privacy and personal space largely enabled by central heating?

Throatwarbler posted:

What I'm getting at is that instead of trying to build some kind of spreadsheet to figure out down to the last penny how much money you'll spend buying/renting a house, while using unrealistic assumptions about your ability to predict the future, it's better to instead think of it in terms of risk and how much money you are risking when you try to time the market, and yes regardless of your intentions, buying the house is a game of timing the market. If you don't like it then don't buy a house.
If you're extrapolating out to 25 or 30 years then doesn't the average matter most? Unless you're trying to flip the house after five years. But if I'm only interested in what makes the most economic sense between now and (say) when I retire, it looks like the answer is renting.

e: \/
That's what I don't get. The entire appeal of a house to me is being rooted to one spot forever, and doing with the property as I please. If I'm going to be constantly thinking of trading up/out, or how doing X will affect resale value, then I may as well be renting.

unlimited shrimp fucked around with this message at 15:21 on Mar 19, 2013

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008

Cultural Imperial posted:

The Canada Line cost 2 billion. With that 3.3 the billion, how would you expand transit in the lower mainland, such replacing non-earthquake proof overpasses, creating extra lane capacity, improved on-ramps etc would be unnecessary? How is rapid transit supposed to fix all these deficiencies?

Or is this a big gently caress you to all the assholes in the suburbs, i'm more sophisticated than you because i wear skinny jeans and flannel shirts and ride a fixie or something?

edit:
Whatever the solution, you can't just shut out the suburbs because you worship jane jacob's gospel of induced demand. Why do you want to ghettoize the suburbs?
Because gently caress the suburbs and gently caress all the suburbanites who think their godawful wasteful lifestyles should be subsidized and the true costs externalized. If you want to live in suburbia, then pay the price of living in suburbia.

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008

Fraternite posted:

Low rates artificially inflate prices because they make houses "affordable".
What are the meaningful differences between a $400,000 mortgage @ 10% and a $200,000 mortgage @ 5%? (pretend my examples are in equilibrium)

Wouldn't the mortgage payment be the same even if the purchase price has a more favorable ratio to my income?

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008

Lexicon posted:

I think you got the amounts and percentages backwards, right? A low mortgage amount A at a high percentage B, or a high mortgage C at a low percentage D could conceivably have the same payment for particular appropriate choices of A, B, C, D.

Even if the payments are the same, the situations are not equivalent. For one thing, the latter has interest rate risk. The post-2008 ZIRP policy has gone on far longer than I or most other observers would have guessed, but still, interest rates really only have one direction to go, yet many borrowers are leveraged to the limit of their current ability to pay. By contrast, at a higher interest rate, there's reasonable chance your rate could be lower next time the renewal cycle comes up. Right now, mortgages are about as close as possible to free money - over a decade or longer horizon, it starts to look unlikely that this will persist indefinitely.

Obviously this is less of an issue in the USA where you can still get 25 or 30 year loans at whatever stupidly low percentage. Not so here.
I did, yes. :downs:

Thanks to you and Fine-able Offense for clarifying.

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008

Fine-able Offense posted:

According to Ben Rabidoux, Montreal now has almost as many homes on the market as Vancouver and Toronto combined.

Just in case you didn't think it was a national phenomenon or anything!
I wish I paid closer attention in French class. :smith:

e.
Holy good God they have condos for sale at <$150,000
http://www.remax-quebec.com/en/inscription/M/10085615.rmx?source=centris

unlimited shrimp fucked around with this message at 21:09 on Apr 10, 2013

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008

Buckwheat Sings posted:

It's only 374 square foot? It's still cheaper per square foot to buy in Los Angeles. Seems kind of expensive as that's tiny as hell.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Culver-City/4913-Indian-Wood-Rd-90230/unit-507/home/6784343
Yeah, didn't realize it was so small.

There's some other nice places, though:
http://passerelle.centris.ca/Redirect2.aspx?CodeDest=PLATEAU&NoMls=MT10301401&Source=WWW.REALTOR.CA&Langue=E

I don't know anything about the neighborhoods, though.

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008

Lexicon posted:

Schemes like this and BC's first-time buyer tax credit, not to mention RRSP-raiding for down payments, make me furious. Revenue is getting pulled from all sorts of more worthy causes, and as far as I can tell, the only real outcome is more dollars chasing the same housing => thus benefits accumulate to developers.
I like the RRSP plan because it gives me the flexibility to top off my annual RRSP contributions (no small feat) without having to worry about possibly maybe buying a house in 5-10 years. Without it, I'd have to decide every year if I want to save for a house or save for retirement, and act accordingly.

The money's there if I want to buy a house, but if I decide to keep renting, then I get a few extra years of compounded interest when I retire.

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008

Lexicon posted:

We're only talking about 25 grand here, which is gently caress-all as a percentage of any sort of housing in this property-daft country of ours. And that money does nothing but goose asking prices higher - as everyone can rob their RRSPs.... so again, more dollars chasing the same housing.

Retirement saving should be for retirement. End of story.
I suppose that's true.

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008

Baronjutter posted:

Oh also the friend of a friend who works at an american car dealership told us honda is a bad company and the Fit is a terrible investment and we should totally buy an american car because they are just as well made but the parts and upkeep is cheaper and now is the perfect time to buy an american car!
I drive a Fit. It's like Suburbia: The Car
Bland, lifeless, but drat if it isn't perfect for a growing family.

Unfortunately I'm single and childless and I should have bought the Fiat :gonk:

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008

shrike82 posted:

I don't live in Canada but have a colleague from Vancouver that's put down 200 grand on a condo there as an investment. She's fresh out of college and investing literally all her savings on it, saying that it's a sure win investment.

Crazy...
Who the hell has 200k in savings fresh out of college?

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008

Baronjutter posted:

Man the only thing anyone comes out of school with is crushing debt and unemployment.
$200k in liquid assets is a lot of money for anyone in their early 20s, university or not.

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008
I made this thing using Google Trends:


I don't know if it means anything, but it's a neat tool. :cool:

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008

Shifty Pony posted:

Being a landlord anywhere is a loving nightmare. Good renters are hard to find and often know it so even if you get one you have to deal with below market rent changes to keep them from jumping. And that isn't even touching on the nightmares that can happen with maintenance.

It isn't like a rental house is some sort of magic money dispenser or something, but people sure seem to think it is.
Point 1 sounds like capitalism at work. Point 2 sounds like something you'd have to deal with whether you lived in the house or rented it. Turning a profit on land/housing you own but don't live in is about as close to 'magic money dispenser' as anything gets in this world, so cry me a loving river.

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008
I've lived in a lot of rentals, but I've never lived in one where the problems with the house/unit weren't chronic or didn't predate my arrival. Landlords also have rights and can inspect the units when reasonable with 24 hours written notice. Floor joists take a while to rot out, long enough for a diligent landlord to catch it even if the tenant is apathetic.

Sure I agree that being a landlord isn't easy, but I'm not going to pity the landlords who didn't realize renting a property wasn't a hands-off enterprise.

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008

Sassafras posted:

For all that people laugh at that site, I have friends who very successfully rent out places they furnished for ~1000 bucks on there for 600-800 per month above what would otherwise be market rent. If nobody used it, would it exist?
I assume anyone who can afford that option isn't hurting financially, or at least earns enough to be approved for a decent loan or LoC. That $7,200 - $9,600 savings over 12 moths would have paid for a lot of nice furniture they could have taken with them when they moved.

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008
The problem with a housing bubble isn't that prices are high, it's that people are over-leveraging themselves on an asset they assume can only go up in value. There's a huge difference between opting to pay twice as much on a car (and potentially pay it off twice as fast), and opting to pay twice as much on a a full-term mortgage because you're expecting some huge ROI in a few years.

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008

Cultural Imperial posted:

This is the best series of posts I've ever seen on why buying new cars can be a humungous waste of money. I'm not saying it's a bad decision for you Baronjutter, but holy poo poo, the motherfuckers who think nothing of plunking down 50k for an impreza sti...gently caress
My biggest regret of the previous 2-3 years is buying a new car instead of a dealer certified used car.
I "knew" what I was getting into, but the reality of living with frivolous debt hanging around your neck is way worse than any spreadsheet budget can tell.

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008

PT6A posted:

Yeah, I was going to include some other cities like Berlin, Paris, Sydney, HK, and maybe even San Francisco and/or LA where the distinction wouldn't be quite so drastic, but there are certainly no cities in Canada that I would consider on the level of London, NY, or Tokyo and it's really not even open for debate.
And Vancouver never will be barring some affordable supersonic passenger jet innovation. Vancouver is too small, and too far away from every other metropolis, to become a world class hub for the arts or finance.

Baronjutter posted:

Man there's got to be a system were housing can be rented yet the renters feel a sense of ownership and have a reason to improve and maintain the property. Some sort of lease with owner-like rights?
We could go super socialist and cap price appreciation to inflation +x%/yr. :v:
I mean if you know your ten year ROI on purchasing a house will only be 10% at best, then maybe you'll view it more as a 'pride of ownership' thing, and less of a magical silver bullet investment vehicle.

unlimited shrimp fucked around with this message at 03:51 on Aug 29, 2013

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008

Matthew_O posted:

3) Canada's geography (i.e. very little desirable real estate) lends itself towards higher prices. Real estate should be more expensive in Canada than in the US, all other things being equal.
This really only seems relevant in British Columbia. Southern Ontario is not hurting for space, and we have 1/10th the population of the States.

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008
I'd love to live in an area like Whistler, but if I use the MLS then I can only ever find multimillion dollar vacation cabins or time shares.
What are actual housing prices like?

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008
Go West, young man.

... Then when you get to Calgary, go North.

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008

Baronjutter posted:

$313,573 cash savings... just.. 300k sitting in a bank account?
These people are sitting on over a million. They are obscenely rich, they can buy and rent and do what ever they want. Who cares, they don't have to be frugal with their money anymore or worry about anything at this point. Why did they have to use such a crazy example?
Reminds me of this timeless classic from the WSJ:


Those poor rich people! :qq:

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008

man thats gross posted:

This was including mortgage interest (used the default 5.5% despite rates currently being lower to account for future fluctuations), 0.8% property tax, 4% buying and 6% selling closing costs, 0.5% insurance, 1% annual for maintenance and renovations, and $200 monthly utilities.
What about an average 7% annual ROI from investing the difference between renting and owning, including investing the initial lump sums that would have comprised your closing costs?

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008

Rime posted:

To be fair, when you can just keep slapping up POS woodframes in endless subdivisions radiating out from the city center for hundreds of miles, you drive the cost to purchase one very low. American style, if you will.
The GTA says otherwise.

e:
Here's a sickening .gif:

unlimited shrimp fucked around with this message at 01:33 on Oct 22, 2013

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008
That's been happening for ages, Vancouver especially.
I think our low dollar used to attract a lot of productions, less so now. Parts of the Hulk were filmed in Toronto, and BSG and X-Files were largely filmed in Vancouver.

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008
Why do people hate Kelowna? It looks pretty in the pictures. :shobon:

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008

Fine-able Offense posted:

What part of Canada are you from? I need to craft an appropriate regional analogue. I.E., if you were from Ontario, I'd say "Kelowna is like Muskoka, but with even bigger douchebags driving even bigger ATVs, plus a dumb real estate bubble."
Ugh, forget that then.

unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008

Grand Theft Autobot posted:

There's no way that Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, or Hamilton are appreciably better places to live than Columbus.

If you Canada goins want cheap houses and rents plus excellent job marjets, move to St. Paul-Minneapolis.
Can I marry you for a green card?

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unlimited shrimp
Aug 30, 2008
So to confirm, the thinking is that thousands of wealthy Chinese tourists are going to visit this hotel in Nanaimo, fall in love with the city, and then buy up all the real estate?

Because Nanaimo makes more sense than anywhere else on the mainland...?

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