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on the left
Nov 2, 2013
I Am A Gigantic Piece Of Shit

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Are the illegal nightly rentals a bunch of airbnb properties that are destroying the market for her rental?

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on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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Literally poo from a diseased human butt

ocrumsprug posted:

I suspect that that dip the in REITs more closely maps to tradeable equities during that time frame instead of house prices. REITs will suffer if the economy runs aground, but I'm not sure that commercial real estate has been as bubbly as residential.

Unless of course, you manage to find the REIT that has invested in single family home properties to rent over the last 6-7 years.

Many REITs were also based on holding mortgage notes, so the market price of those immediately dropped like a stone to reflect the value of the underlying securities.

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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Lexicon posted:

That really serves to highlight the [lack of] financial sophistication of these buyers. I'd be frankly insulted that this big financial purchase I'm making is being packaged along with a set of shiny, distracting baubles. Surely condo buyers pre-bubble weren't getting transit passes thrown in?

Hey bro, when I was in the back processing your mortgage, I accidentally messed up the mortgage details and added 10k to the purchase price. Would it be ok if I just gave you that 10k in cash right here? I really don't want to have to go back and explain my mistake to my boss.

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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LemonDrizzle posted:

You will not be able to get an undergraduate degree in economics from a reputable university without covering a reasonable amount of higher mathematics. For what it's worth, the mandatory mathematical courses for a BSc in economics at LSE are mathematical methods, stats, and econometrics; you can also take a number of more advanced mathematical topics in later years if you so desire.

Stats and econometrics at the undergrad level typically won't go into the higher math, or at least are definitely passable without a mastery of those subjects. Stochastic processes for economics is typically in grad school though, along with time series analysis which will use those concepts.

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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An Angry Bug posted:

In the end it's moot. Even the worst of those problems are preferable to people freezing to death because they don't have a home.

I assume there's plenty of cheap housing once you move out of the city. The problem is that you can any 2 of the following when it comes to housing: house lots of people in the city, at low cost, without creating slums.

Also, you have the problem that people who already live in the city and own property have vastly different priorities from people who don't live in the city/don't own property. People who don't live in the city conveniently don't get to vote in the city, and people who don't own property probably don't vote in numbers as high as property owners.

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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Lexicon posted:

This guy is insidious. Unlike Cam Good et al - who are really just good marketers (preying on the fear of the 'yellow peril') - this guy is constantly touting his MBA with a Finance focus, and how he's a "numbers guy" etc. To the financially and numerically unsophisticated, I have no doubt he sounds very convincing. Combine this with the complete absence of any regulation limiting what real estate vendors can advertise about future ROI etc (which puts them at a vast contrast to how, say, the mutual fund or ETF industry must conduct itself), and it's a recipe for hoodwinking en masse.



The difference between this humorous It's Always Sunny sketch and reality is that the bank will give you 300k+ to invest in this sort of scheme

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
I Am A Gigantic Piece Of Shit

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quote:

I read the Globe and Mail every day, and that always includes the business section. Rob Carrick is a business reporter for the Globe and Mail, but really more of an advice columnist than anything else. Generally speaking, I’m in the camp of listening to those who have achieved great things. When I get a call from a broker or money manager eager to bring me into their stewardship, the first question I always ask is, “what is your net worth?” Why would I risk any money with someone that can’t manage their own finances well enough to become wealthy?

It's nice for the guy to open with a paragraph explaining why we shouldn't listen to his financial advice.

The secret to the financial world is that all the pictures of golf and yachts in marketing materials represent the kind of life that financial professionals will enjoy with the opaque, high fee structure of their services. Picking the financial advisor with the flashiest car and biggest gold watch is almost guaranteed to get you a slick salesman who will sell you things against your own interests, as commissions stack waaaayy faster than prudent investments.

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
I Am A Gigantic Piece Of Shit

Literally poo from a diseased human butt
If you want to buy an asset that will be valuable when the Canadian oil runs out, it should be an asset denominated in USD or Euro. The Canadian dollar will probably drop sharply when oil exports slow.

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
I Am A Gigantic Piece Of Shit

Literally poo from a diseased human butt

FrozenVent posted:

After that term you have to get another one; if the interest rates have gone up since then, you have to finance at the new rates then. It's just like any other mortgage.

What's funny is that a lot of people are going to buy houses assuming they'll keep that same rate over the life of the mortgage, and it's pretty much guaranteed to at least double before then.

Why is it guaranteed to double? I don't think any central bank plans on ending the free money party anytime soon.

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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Guest2553 posted:

Soon has to extend til 2039 or else these people will be straight up dicked.

When I did my asset securitization class, the average life of a mortgage in the US is something like 11 years, and I am pretty sure that excludes refinancing.

Of course, in the US a house is going to be a much smaller multiple of income and the mortgages were fully documented with 20% down, so maybe not a useful number for blowout markets like Vancouver/Toronto.

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
I Am A Gigantic Piece Of Shit

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Guest2553 posted:

Holy gently caress

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/05/13/vancouver-house-that-sold-for-3-million-in-one-day-now-faces-bulldozer-because-it-is-too-small/

tl;dr: A perfectly livable house sells for 3+ million in vancouver within a day of listing. New owners intend to knock it down to build a bigger house. It's alluded to that rich Chinese are to blame.

When paying $3mm for a 1/5 acre lot, you aren't paying for the awesome construction quality, you are paying for the land. Demolishing the house and building a bigger one is a drop in the bucket compared to the price of the land.

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
I Am A Gigantic Piece Of Shit

Literally poo from a diseased human butt
What's the big problem with Chinese people coming to live in Canada? Isn't Canada supposed to be an open, multicultural society comprised of immigrants?

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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ocrumsprug posted:

Point One: Housing isn't an investment
Point Two: You have to buy investments
Point Three: Don't make fun of someone telling you to invest in a house with your savings

Is that a reasonable distillation of your post PT6A?

Real estate is an investment. However, you invest based on cashflow generated, not capital appreciation. If you have a chance to get 5% rental yield after all is said and done, go out and buy as many houses as you can afford. If you are speculating that house prices will increase 20% and you can lever that into an 80% return, you deserve to lose your money.

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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blah_blah posted:

I agree that they get better, but I don't think they get substantially better until you have a lot more assets under management than 1M.

The advisors don't get better, the quality of investments get better as you can afford to lock up larger and larger amounts of money for a longer time. If you can only invest 500k, you can buy some stocks. If you can invest $10 million with some other rich guys, you can pay some other rich guys to take over a company and strip its assets for you.

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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shrike82 posted:

I'm skeptical of "mid-market" private wealth banking (<50 million).

If you want help managing a portfolio of 7/low 8 figures, chances are you'd still be better off with a flat fee advisor and going with passive management/ETFs etc. You'd need a larger pot to get access to good alternative assets and investment advice.

It's the market where banks can get away with charging exorbitant fees, and the clients are not quite rich enough to have their own people to make sure they aren't getting fleeced.

My grandfather used to use these type of services, but once the internet became a thing, he moved to self-management.

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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Rutibex posted:

Simple: everyone gets to own the property they currently live in and all mortgages are nullified.

Yes, a multi-billion dollar handout to people who probably already have decent jobs and definitely already have a house. What a good idea!

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
I Am A Gigantic Piece Of Shit

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It's pretty ironic to denounce racism using nationalist rhetoric. Anything else to say about the international jew opportunistic Chinese?

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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Kalenn Istarion posted:

B) CMHC releases statistics on the composition of the mortgage market. I quoted one of their reports earlier in the thread; from memory about 9% of current mortgages are greater than 90% LTV.

Do they specify how they calculate the "V" part of the equation? Also, it would be great if they could produce Income to Loan figures.

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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Baronjutter posted:

Those have been around in Victoria for at least the last 5 years. I don't understand who takes them up on it. It's even a bigger rip off than "cash 4 gold" places. Who the heck calls up a random number they say on a telephone pole to sell their house at a massive reduction for CA$H?? Is this actually a viable business for the people putting up the signs? I understand they'd only need to scam a person or two a year to make it totally worth their while but I'd love to know if they're ever successful and if so how often and in what situations.

In the US, these guys are typically lawyers. They mostly buy up liens against houses and then initiate foreclosure proceedings as soon as possible. Many times they get lucky and the owner of the house doesn't pay attention or doesn't fight it in court and then the lawyers get a nice cash payout or the title to the house.

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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Cultural Imperial posted:

A family friend works for a high street bank in coquitlam. She says that they have to report any amount of cash over 10k if it gets deposited. I don't really understand how money can be laundered in a house purchase unless you built it yourself with cash.

Chinese people run special informal remittances networks that would avoid this. You give your money to some Ah Q in Canada, and he lets his connection in China know to release some agreed-upon amount of cash to your family members in China. The money doesn't need to travel back to China because Chinese people sending money to Canada will give money to that guy in China, and the local Ah Q will disburse your Canadian dollars to their family.

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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Cultural Imperial posted:

this is literally a hawala isn't it?

Yes, that's what it is.

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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Cultural Imperial posted:

Which, if I recall, is completely outlawed due to 9/11, at least in the US. I can't wait until someone starts trying to crack down on these networks.

e: lol http://www.fintrac-canafe.gc.ca/publications/brochure/05-2010/1-eng.asp

Something that is popular in Hong Kong is getting around these regulations using pawn shops. Go in, buy something expensive with cash, and then sell it back almost immediately after for clean money. Buy a watch from your friend for 100k, then fly to HK with the watch and sell it back to his friend for 90k, deposited in a Hong Kong bank via wire transfer at the pawn shop.

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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PT6A posted:

Wasn't there just recently a whole bunch of complaining about the fact there aren't enough long-term mortgages in Canada? As far as I can tell, they're talking about the length of the mortgage, not the amortization. As long as we allow mortgages with a 30-year amortization, I don't see any particular issue with allowing a 30-year term. In fact, it's probably safer than a shorter-term mortgage with the same amortization, and 20% down seems like enough, assuming people are borrowing within their means.

Beyond that, mortgages are just financial instruments. There are bonds with 100-year maturities, it doesn't mean that they're being bought so that the buyer can reap all the rewards in 100 years.

A big problem is that the math behind mortgages means that the monthly payment can never be lower than the interest accrued in one month, no matter how long the mortgage. Thus, you are only lengthening the pain, without meaningfully improving affordability.

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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Cultural Imperial posted:

For those of you who have people you care about who are hell bent on pride of ownership, show them this.



It seems fairly likely that governments will continue the zero interest rate policies barring a massive shock to the financial system. If there's a huge shock, expect major changes anyways, so go nuts.

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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ThirdPartyView posted:

I have no idea about Canada but I know in the US every employer I've had did a background check which included verifying all degrees, certifications, etc. Most of these background checks are pretty cheap (a few hundred) as well, though they can get pricey if you are doing a detailed one for a C-suite executive or something.

In the US we have the national student clearinghouses for degrees, so you don't even need to check with the school. Just do a simple search of name and graduation date and you'll get a quick yes/no.

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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Is Canada like the US where they can just immigrate illegally anyways and nobody will do anything about it, and they will later get amnesty?

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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ChairMaster posted:

So like you guys who are mad about people mad about worthless rich people moving in and contributing nothing to the country, do you think that's a good thing that we want to happen? Like forget about whatever stupid thing you're mad about, do you seriously believe that Vancouver, or any other place, will be made better by having a bunch of rich people that don't work or contribute anything to society at all move in?

I mean I don't know if you've been paying attention but rich people generally aren't worth much to anybody but themselves.

Given that if the foreigners mostly stay overseas, you've gotten a bunch of foreigners to basically give you money for free, which is a good thing.

Also, the money primarily goes to older people who have owned houses for a long time, so the primary beneficiaries are your parents and grandparents, not the foreigners.

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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JawKnee posted:

who is the 'you' here? Because individual gains are not terribly important if society at large doesn't see those gains (because most people don't own a house to be bought by foreign investors, and people without that tend to be worse off than those with it already)

Most people over 40-50 would have bought a house long enough ago to avoid the high prices, and i'd imagine that's a large enough share of the voting population of Canada to make a real difference

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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quote:

Moos and Skaburskis found, beginning in the 2000s, “immigrants, particularly from Asia, increasingly arrived with established wealth, and many were known to continue earning income outside the country. This led to a decoupling of housing from local labour market participation.”

Who knew that immigrants would be criticized for not taking jobs?

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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Isn't climate control super-important for large buildings in order to avoid a lot of wear and tear?

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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quote:

Eh. I already have to pay these taxes whenever I want to move my money around (I'm not against paying them either). I feel that the housing market really shouldn't be liquid at all. As everyone states, a house should be something you want to live in, not an investment vehicle.

On the other hand, we've seen that when workers are held hostage by their houses, it paralyzes the labor market.

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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Couldn't the government do something like a huge tax on owning property, and each day you are present in Canada you get a tax credit valid towards that surcharge, capping out at 100% of taxes gone if you are present 183 days? You can use border control records to manage this pretty easily.

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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Of course people who are politically connected are allowed to convert a lot of money into USD or other reserve currency, but you only need to go to the "Pawn Shops" in Hong Kong to see really hardcore money laundering going on.

You can go to Hong Kong, buy something at a pawn shop using your Chinese bank card and return it minutes later for Hong Kong dollars, minus a spread for the dealer. If you have cash and getting cash across the border is an issue, you can also buy jewelry in Guangzhou/Shenzhen and take the train into Hong Kong to trade it for convertible currency.

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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Mr. Wynand posted:

We do? The vast majority of stuff is in the US (I'm less sure about Canada, but I bet it's not that much less) is shipped by truck. It comes down to the fact that you can't compete with a delivery method where you have to pay for your (extremely expensive) thing-you-drive-on by yourself (in the case of rail) or have the government do it for you (in the case of the highway system).

A large reason stuff is shipped by truck instead of trains is the large money and time costs of getting a shipping container on and off a train. It's speculated that when self-driving cars become a thing, this issue will become heavily mitigated, because you can ship the entire truck with not too much trouble, or other schemes where you don't have to pay hundreds of drivers to sit around doing nothing for a while.

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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Baronjutter posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnlRw7ytyIc
Did someone say driveless container trucks???

Those are awesome. Get them working at highway speeds and certified for the road and we are in business.

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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FrozenVent posted:

Now I'm angry. Although I do appreciate the writer's skill in presenting these people as anything but loathsome.

Those living expenses aren't out of the ordinary. 5k of their income right off the bat are for mortgage and daycare, and the rest is fairly reasonable too. I'm assuming their takehome is something like 9-10k. Canada should try to make those major expenses more manageable, but you shouldn't begrudge people who are making enough to offset their costs.

on the left fucked around with this message at 14:06 on Jul 19, 2014

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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Baronjutter posted:

Senior's care, specially if they actually need lots of direct care, is really really loving expensive. Like "it will blow through their pension, house sale, and all their other assets and end up costing their kids money" expensive. Specially since we have better and better ways of keeping people alive for longer.

Just pass a huge tax on the young (who do not vote) to pay for the elderly (who do vote) and whatever lifestyle they feel entitled to.

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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Is there a secondary market for buying air (unfinished/unstarted condos) in Vancouver like there is for China? That's a major problem for China, because it's a form of hyperleverage. People will pay big money even for a place in line to buy units, or put down a deposit for units at a very early stage, without nearly enough money to fully purchase the condo or apartment. They just buy with the intention of flipping the right to buy for a profit.

You can easily end up with major disasters where financing the building falls through and the building gets stuck in development hell. In Miami, banks blacklisted certain condo buildings for stuff like this, and it doomed more than a few projects when nobody could get a mortgage to buy units in those projects.

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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There's no reason that real estate can't be like any other natural resource boom, in that it will cripple your real economy by creating an artificially high currency value.

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on the left
Nov 2, 2013
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Cultural Imperial posted:

By selling them to foreign buyers?

Yeah, if you have tons of foreign money moving into Canada to park, it has a similar effect to China buying a lot of goods. Except it's a capital investment, so the money doesn't get kept in Canada as it would if China bought goods and services. So in a sense, the money is just waiting to leave Canada.

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