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ChampRamp posted:What rhymes with Alison Lundergan Grimes?  That ad is truly the gift that keeps on giving.
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Aug 30, 2014 03:27
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Nth Doctor posted:
Course if he's actually been managing Mitch's awful campaign and was only given the job in the first place to shut Rand up then maybe this will end up being a gift to Mitch as much as Grimes.
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Aug 30, 2014 04:08
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Oh god, could it really be happening? Latest Marquette poll shows Burke up 2 on Walker. Look at that trend: down three in May, steadily climbing towards 50%, now plus 2 in late August.
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Aug 30, 2014 05:37
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Grand Theft Autobot posted:Oh god, could it really be happening?
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Aug 30, 2014 14:29
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Joementum posted:Chris McDaniel's lawsuit has been dismissed and his campaign says they will spend the weekend deciding whether to appeal to the state Supreme Court. I hope that they go for it, he's sucking up plenty of terribly lovely peoples' money and won't ever get anywhere. Grand Theft Autobot posted:Oh god, could it really be happening? quote:Despite A Strange Poll, Scott Walker’s Still The Favorite To Win In Wisconsin
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Aug 30, 2014 14:58
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Is there any way for Aaron Rogers to come out in favor of gay marriage and health care before November?
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Aug 30, 2014 17:42
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The X-man cometh posted:Is there any way for Aaron Rogers to come out in favor of gay marriage and health care before November? He is the union rep for the Packers 
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Aug 31, 2014 05:41
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You may not be feeling the changes in Michigan yet https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_y0LojzywU 
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Sep 3, 2014 00:23
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Welp, this will be haunting my nightmares tonight. Also: the unemployment rate is the lowest it's been in six years: THAT'S RIGHT FOLKS, IT'S JUST AS lovely NOW AS IT WAS IN '08! 
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Sep 3, 2014 01:53
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turtleheads.jpg
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Sep 3, 2014 02:03
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How likely is another government shutdown? It would be hilarious if right before yet ANOTHER election, there was an enormous shutdown of government due to budget constraints/debt scolds holding up routine legislation.
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Sep 3, 2014 02:47
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Did anyone see the Alaska Democratic/Independent unity ticket coming?
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Sep 3, 2014 03:09
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dorkasaurus_rex posted:How likely is another government shutdown? It would be hilarious if right before yet ANOTHER election, there was an enormous shutdown of government due to budget constraints/debt scolds holding up routine legislation. It's impossible to say. Normally I'd say a 0% chance because Republicans aren't that dumb, but nobody's ever lost betting on Republican insanity so far. Obama taking any sort of executive action on Immigration or really anything would triple the odds.
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Sep 3, 2014 03:34
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:You may not be feeling the changes in Michigan yet Considering the state of Michigan's roads, and his inability to get the money to fix them, should Rick really be starting off a campaign ad with the phrase Road to Recovery?
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Sep 3, 2014 03:34
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dorkasaurus_rex posted:How likely is another government shutdown? It would be hilarious if right before yet ANOTHER election, there was an enormous shutdown of government due to budget constraints/debt scolds holding up routine legislation. It's hard to tell, because not having one requires Boehner to stand up to his collection of wing nuts while also angering the Tea Party voters. However in any way hinting at having one causes what's left of the establishment to freak the gently caress out. So Boehner has about a month to figure out a way to both piss in Obama's face while not shutting down the government but also making it look like Republicans run Barter Town. Essentially Boehner has to find the exact right level of drunk to be at for the next month or so.
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Sep 3, 2014 03:35
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I'm going to go with <1%, government shut-downs are for odd numbered years.
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Sep 3, 2014 03:42
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Gyges posted:It's hard to tell, because not having one requires Boehner to stand up to his collection of wing nuts while also angering the Tea Party voters. However in any way hinting at having one causes what's left of the establishment to freak the gently caress out. So Boehner has about a month to figure out a way to both piss in Obama's face while not shutting down the government but also making it look like Republicans run Barter Town. John Boehner seems like the type of guy who is in exquisite control of his level of alcoholism.
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Sep 3, 2014 04:30
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Nth Doctor posted:Did anyone see the Alaska Democratic/Independent unity ticket coming? I bet you Hollis French sure didn't. Dude gave up his Senate Minority Leader spot to run as Lt. Gov and just got hosed by the Democratic Party. I feel pretty bad for him too, he seemed like a cool guy.
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Sep 3, 2014 05:31
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site posted:I bet you Hollis French sure didn't. Dude gave up his Senate Minority Leader spot to run as Lt. Gov and just got hosed by the Democratic Party. I feel pretty bad for him too, he seemed like a cool guy. Yeah our choices are now an anti-marijuana legalization, anti-choice, anti-LGBT Republican or Sean Parnell.
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Sep 3, 2014 06:29
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Chris Parnell pauses as he flips through his mail. A shiver runs down his spine.
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Sep 3, 2014 11:37
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mooyashi posted:Chris Parnell pauses as he flips through his mail. A shiver runs down his spine.
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Sep 3, 2014 12:36
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Gyges posted:]Essentially Boehner has to find the exact right level of drunk to be at for the next month or so. So basically a Ballmer Peak but for politics?
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Sep 3, 2014 14:02
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site posted:I bet you Hollis French sure didn't. Dude gave up his Senate Minority Leader spot to run as Lt. Gov and just got hosed by the Democratic Party. I feel pretty bad for him too, he seemed like a cool guy. If the state party is smart, and making this deal certainly tips the scale that way, they'll make it up to him.
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Sep 3, 2014 15:25
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538 has published their detailed Senate forecast, which I believe will now be updated almost every day(?) until the midterm elections. As of right now the Republicans have a 63.9% chance of winning a majority.
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Sep 3, 2014 18:25
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I really, really doubt that. It has Alaska and North Carolina as Republican pickups at this point, but that's ignoring what's actually going on on a state level. Hagan and Begich are going to pull it out. I don't think Colorado will happen for the Republicans, either. As time goes by, I get more and more lukewarm about Silver and 538.
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Sep 3, 2014 20:31
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Spatula City posted:I really, really doubt that. It has Alaska and North Carolina as Republican pickups at this point, but that's ignoring what's actually going on on a state level. Hagan and Begich are going to pull it out. I don't think Colorado will happen for the Republicans, either. Princeton Electoral Consortium is currently 70% Dems. I'm with you on 538. The current site feels more like The Daily Beast than the old 538.
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Sep 3, 2014 20:34
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Spatula City posted:As time goes by, I get more and more lukewarm about Silver and 538. And his website signaled they were about chasing clicks, being contrary, and generating "controversy" when they hired that climate denier guy to write "provocative" articles about climate change (Did you know...payouts for natural disaster damages are actually going down over time if you adjust for hurf and durf?). I think he's tilting the site to the right in order to broaden its appeal and try to distance himself from his reputation as the guy who tries to rig elections for the Democrats. Fair enough, he has bills to pay and backers to placate, but I think the realities of running a revenue-generating website are really abrading his commitment to rock-solid objective data analysis. It's much closer to Buzzfeed than it thinks it is. And that vision statement/manifesto thing he wrote when he launched the site is still hilariously badly thought out.
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Sep 3, 2014 20:48
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Vox is doing 538 way better than 538 is, I think. Where else can I read an article about Beyoncé's VMA performance one day and class war the next?
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Sep 3, 2014 20:56
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Are you guys saying the 538 results..are skewed?
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Sep 3, 2014 20:59
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I think the general problem with 538 is that it never ended up being the vertical it touted itself as. Having some dudes analyze data and bust out charts has lost its novelty value. Upshot is also a little annoying in its complete inundation of people with election and chart gunk. I know they have the best data-visualization team in the world, but it's more gimmicky than useful.
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Sep 3, 2014 21:04
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Beamed posted:Are you guys saying the 538 results..are skewed? A lack of model consensus is not the same as "let me insert this sampling bias based on my gut feeling about party ID"
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Sep 3, 2014 21:09
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FAUXTON posted:A lack of model consensus is not the same as "let me insert this sampling bias based on my gut feeling about party ID" yeah, but people in this thread are doing exactly the latter, which was his point.
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Sep 3, 2014 21:28
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dilbertschalter posted:yeah, but people in this thread are doing exactly the latter, which was his point. Yeah, those people are dumb. I think it's not at all crazy to argue that 538 might be wrong - it is, after all, still two months away and they're quite open about things still being quite up in the air. It's also not strongly predicting a Republican win yet. That said, though, the weight of the evidence is that it is more likely than not that the Republicans win the Senate. That's unfortunate, but it's the reality. But it's also still a 'more likely than not', not a "going to happen short of the Second Coming" like 2008 and 2012 was. So it's still reasonable to be hopeful, you've just got to realize you're hoping and not expecting.
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Sep 3, 2014 22:23
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He said sixty percent republican but then spent the rest of the article walking back that prediction due to poor or no data.
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Sep 3, 2014 22:24
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hobbesmaster posted:He said sixty percent republican but then spent the rest of the article walking back that prediction due to poor or no data. Yeah, at the very least this is pretty click-baity.
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Sep 3, 2014 22:33
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evilweasel posted:Yeah, those people are dumb. 538's article really doesn't conflict with most other sites, including http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2014/senate-model/ Also I'm surprised that NH is still 86% dem on NYTimes.
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Sep 3, 2014 22:43
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Chad Taylor (D) has apparently pulled out of the Kansas Senatorial race.
Slate Action fucked around with this message at 22:57 on Sep 3, 2014 |
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Sep 3, 2014 22:44
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Not that it matters at all, but why is he dropping out?
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Sep 3, 2014 23:05
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According to The Topeka Capital-Journal it seems to be a tactical move to give Orman a better shotquote:Taylor's challenges were compounded by modest fundraising and a weak performance in the August primary. He was under pressure from Kansas and national Democratic officials to step aside and give the better-financed Orman a better chance to defeat Roberts.
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Sep 3, 2014 23:12
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skaboomizzy posted:Not that it matters at all, but why is he dropping out? From what I recall, he and the independent candidate were splitting the anti-Roberts vote, so that he would get reelected despite a majority in the state hating him. I remember a note from last week about them negotiating about one dropping out to prevent it. This seems to be the result of that.
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Sep 3, 2014 23:16
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