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Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

Joementum posted:

Safe Democrat (no race): 34
Solid Democrat: 8 (DE, IL, MA, MI, NJ, NM, OR, RI)
Likely/Lean Democrat: 6 (CO, HI*, NH, LA, MN, MT)
Toss Up: 4 (AK, AR, IA, SD)
Likely/Lean Republican: 4 (GA, KY, ME, NE, WV)
Solid Republican: 10 (AL, ID, KS, MS, OK, SC, SC, TN, TX, WY)
Safe Republican (no race): 31

So, 48 D vs 46 R with four toss ups. * HI would normally be solid D, but their special election rules let multiple people from the same party run, which could split the vote.

Obviously I'm missing two states here somewhere.

Why are Alaska and Arkansas counted as tossups?

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Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

Warcabbit posted:

If I'm remembering properly... it wasn't on the staff level.
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/01/michele_bachmann_campaign_finance_short.php
That's not it. There was something about the last week's payments of the campaign.
http://m.startribune.com/news/?id=186574921

She's still not going to be expelled unless she's convicted of something because it pretty much never happens AND republicans control the House.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007


So are we just going to have wave elections every two years now?

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

Plastic Megaphone posted:

I work at a newspaper in Cheyenne, and this seems to be the sentiment of most of the office as well. There seems to be a schism forming between the more moderate GOP old guard and the batshit elements like our superintendent of public instruction, an elected official who apparently did such a bad job that the GOP legislature voted to strip her of all of her duties and appoint someone else to do the job.

Then there's the county commissioner who promised he'd be a friend of the taxpayer and give back $2,500 of his annual salary. Instead of just writing a check to the treasurer's office, he literally had a guy handing out $50 bills to members of the public as they were coming into a county commission meeting...on the budget.

And lets not forget, Cheney won't be the only challenger for Enzi's seat: http://www.wyomingnews.com/articles/2013/05/27/news/19local_05-27-13.txt

Is there a reason she's giving besides just wanting a senate seat? Like, is she saying Enzi's not conservative enough?

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

radical meme posted:

I've said this before, but the absolute worst, in terms of of just shitbird tactics, is the way they went after college students. Refusing to accept an out of state driver's license as an ID is just insane.

Does this violate full faith and credit?

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

BdB is currently at 39.6% (!!!) with 82% of precincts reporting. If it goes to a run-off, it'll be him against Thompson. Something I thought was interesting is that according to http://project.wnyc.org/election2013/ he's winning all ethnicities except Asian (who are going for Liu). That is, if you go by majority districts.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

gfanikf posted:

He's an exploitative rear end in a top hat who likes to use race and racial matters to enrich himself.

Would you say he's a "race hustler"?

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

What happened to Capuano?

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

Platonicsolid posted:

Texas has the least powerful Governorship in the country, so I'd think an ambitious person would be more interested in other offices. I'd think a Senate run. Cruz is up in 2018, so Castro has two (he hopes) successful and popular terms as mayor under his belt, and a year to go on the campaign trail full time.

You'd be surprised how powerful the governor becomes when he has 13 years to name someone to literally every appointed position in the state.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

In case there was any doubt, Wendy Davis declared her campaign for governor tonight.

http://www.texastribune.org/2013/10/03/wendy-davis-finally-jumps-governors-race/

There should be video of her announcement up soon.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

The sufficient amount is whatever it takes to get a successful education system. Our goal should be educating kids, not having low budgets.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

computer parts posted:

Rick Perry has made a very impressive machine here in Texas. I think by definition parties who are in states they don't control would be less organized though because good organization can make up for a lot of other deficiencies.

Yeah but is that a Republican Party machine or a Rick Perry's Friends and Cronies machine?

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

StarMagician posted:

Ok, I stand corrected. This would have been a much better issue for her to make the centerpiece of her campaign.

It's not like she's making open carry her main platform or anything. She's spent most of her campaign pushing education (probably because she realizes that, for now, abortion is a loser).

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

Nonsense posted:

I saw an ad for the loving Attorney-General that was entirely: "I stopped the left from preventing a moment of silence in classrooms every morning in our glorious christian state, also I know your family is deeply christian, and I just want to let you know, as a Republican, you're the only people who matter"

Pieces of poo poo.

The attorney general and lieutenant governor races have been completely crazy, there are some great pull quotes if the national media were interested.

Also something to not about Davis "selling out" on abortion: there were a lot more objectionable things in that bill than just the 20 week ban, which was probably the least controversial part. Much more serious were the restrictions on doctors and providers that would shut down most of the abortion clinics in the state.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

De Nomolos posted:

Yeah, I probably wouldn't want Texas to fill up with douchebags who wear Google Glass unironically, cars with pink mustaches, and house flippers either.

Too late, they're already in Austin.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

ReindeerF posted:

San Antonio, you have one year to tear down everything that isn't built out of cedar timbers and limestone and re-build it that way. Exemptions can be made for twee architecture like The Quarry that make clever use of old historical or geological or industrial sites. After this year, the Californians will hang a faux-weathered metal lone star in a circle near the entrance of your home if it passes inspection. Otherwise you're required to move to Houston or Dallas.

To be fair, Dallas is just a different kind of horrible. At least they're more upfront about it. Also, the Californians will be setting up special neighborhoods for nonwhites and poor people, you will be advised which side of the interstate you are allowed to live on.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

Mecca-Benghazi posted:

Speaking of Texas, in case you haven't heard, it looks like the runoff for US Senate will be on May 27, between Alameel and Rogers. :sigh: I know neither will stand a chance against Cornyn but for the love of god show up to the runoff guys, don't let Kesha Rogers get a chance at being elected to national office.

Also, Alameel is a former Republican donor. The Texas Democratic Party is a joke.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

OAquinas posted:

Florida's state government is truly hosed for at least a full generation if not perpetuity. There is no state Dem party to speak of and the gerrymandering is terrible even with the "anti-gerrymander" amendment passed. Statewide elections may go blue, but that's it.

This sounds like a hell of a lot of states right now.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

pathetic little tramp posted:

Oh dear, I'm looking at some of the papers he's written as a professor of economics.

"God and Advanced Mammon — Can Theological Types Handle Usury and Capitalism?"

Can I have the PDF of this, please?

edit: It's in a journal I have access to!









loving Christ, no kid of mine is ever going to Randolph-Macon if that poo poo passes muster.

Where the gently caress did he get a PhD from?

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

uncurable mlady posted:

Anyone want to bet that Huffpo, before the end of this year, will run a story about some dumb thing Brat says with the title as "BRAT WORST/WURST"?

If they don't then they ought to be shut down.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

Subterfrugal posted:

Senator John Walsh, D-MT wasn't going to hold Max Baucus' old seat. Today, the Goddamn Plane Crashed Into the Mountain as it came to light that his "Master's thesis" is almost entirely plagiarized. It's probably a good thing he did too.

If this is the kind of stuff that gets you a Master's from the Army War College then we're hosed.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

ReindeerF posted:

The entertaining part is that he blamed the plagiarism on PTSD. Like someone would slam a door and he'd feel compelled to copy entire sections of his thesis from well-known authors.

Or after he saw some toothpaste.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

Joementum posted:

All eyes now turn to John Bohlinger, the pro-life, former Republican (he switched parties in 2013), former Lt. Gov. under Schweitzer who challenged Walsh in this year's Democratic primary.

Presumably Walsh made sure that someone would agree to run on the Democratic ticket before dropping out, right?

I don't think anyone associated with a state Democratic party can be that competent.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

Remember when he tried to primary Gillibrand? That was hilarious.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

Vox is doing 538 way better than 538 is, I think. Where else can I read an article about Beyoncé's VMA performance one day and class war the next?

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

Deteriorata posted:

Kansas' experiment in Republican governance seems to be going well.

They're just reverting to their socialist roots.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

Prosopagnosiac posted:

Speaking of that, I was listening to NPR and they had a guy going on about Obama possibly making an executive order regarding immigration (like Reagan!) but they seemed to agree that it was highly unlikely he'd do it before the midterms. Anyone have some info on that?

The guy was arguing that doing so would improve Latino turnout. (Which it might) But I don't think it would be worth it in a cycle where the GOP has so many structural advantages. What has been bandied about with regards to an executive order on Immigration reform? What could he realistically do?

He was supposed to do something after the recess but it's been postponed because of course it has.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

Gorilla Desperado posted:

Maybe I'm remembering wrong, but isn't there some seemingly-centrist-but-not-really white male judge that's been speculated about in case the White House needs to sneak a SCOTUS nominee past a Repug Senate? I know, Republicans are crazy and yes there's a lot of them who will want to go full metal block on anybody, but there's a couple currently sitting I could see going with such a tactic.

Cass Sunstein, maybe?

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

Amused to Death posted:

What the gently caress

MIGF has been saying that for a while, no one else has.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

Deteriorata posted:

It's entirely possible. Getting a legislature to pass a bill to fund its creation and maintenance would be the sticking point.

If Texas can do it (for early voting at least), anyone can.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

It would help anywhere where the voters are not lame prudes.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

Warcabbit posted:

Okay, that's a good one. What retro political shirt would you be proud to wear? I Like Ike? All The Way With JFK?

Ahem, the slogan is All the Way with LBJ and they sell tons of stuff with that on it at the LBJ Library.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

My Imaginary GF posted:

One caveat, I don't separate progressivism and conservatism: I view the two as the same.

What does this even mean?

EXAKT Science posted:

Voters are dense as gently caress.

To be fair, it's absolutely ridiculous that Virginia has major elections every single year.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

Nintendo Kid posted:

How so? Plenty of states have that, and there's plenty more that don't but will have local elections or ballot questions up in off years which really drives down voter attention.

It's dumb because we have too many elections here. We should have elections at most every 2 years, and just put all the city and county and bond stuff on the same day as the state and federal stuff. My city just moved from having its council elections in the spring to having them on election day in November, so I'm hoping that turnout gets above the 3% from last time.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

I really never would have thought that Silver's site would be awful and Klein's would be really good.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

De Nomolos posted:

Hell yeah, Virginia's gonna get another Democrat or two whether you like it or not. T-Mac has full veto power over this and the Senate can't override it.

I fully expect the Republicans to draw the representatives from the 8th and 11th together now.

Are they not going to appeal to SCOTUS?

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

PDP-1 posted:

FL update for today:


Source. The FL Dems continue to tick upwards on a percentage basis in early voting but the R's still have the lead overall. The outlook continues to be better for the Dems than 2010 but not as good as 2012. This thing is going to come down to a nail-biter on election night.

Why are they releasing the actual numbers? I thought that was generally not done since it might influence voter behavior.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

oswald ownenstein posted:

And legalized abortions aren't going anywhere. Except maybe late term, and frankly I'm fine with that.

I find it hilarious that you say this as a Texas resident and a Patrick voter.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

FOXDIE posted:

Okay wait, HuffPost Live just gave AR to Cotton, but now it's showing Pryor up by 54-44, but it's still confirming it as a victory for GOP?

I'm about to stop watching this loving thing.

It's based on exit polls

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Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

Sex Hobbit posted:

IL gubernatorial race: Rauner has a more than comfortable lead so unless us reasonable folks in and near Cook County can pull this off, looks like I'll be stuffing myself with booze and Halloween candy.

Isn't there only like 10% in?

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