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Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret

AsInHowe posted:

The tea party in Michigan wants the state to split off as a separate country, and declare war on the United States.

Oh, do share!

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Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret
She does happen to have a Master's degree. From Harvard. In public administration.
I mean, Franken's got the same degree, and I consider him more than qualified.

I dunno, Joe. She might have a chance. She's got some experience working crowds and all, she's got a decade of hobnobbing for charity work, so she knows how to grease palms and appease people. And every hit McConnell tosses her way makes her look like 'the Man' is keeping her down. I think she's got the best chance of anyone.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret
That is interesting about InTrade. What, they finally figured out that someone was messing with them?

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret

mcmagic posted:

Looks like Reid is killing off the assault weapons and high capacity mag bans. Democrats unilaterally surrender as usual. Because who wants the chance to hammer republicans for voting no on something with 70% popularity.

Eh, they were probably in there to be sacrificed anyhow. Background checks are what will actually have some kind of effect on shooters.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret
Ms. Bachmann is currently in trouble for financial irregularities. The evidence, as I recall, is pretty strong, even if it won't embarrass her.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret

Kalman posted:

It'll get blamed on campaign staff (honestly, it probably was on the staff level anyway). There probably wouldn't be censure and certainly wouldn't be an expulsion of any type.

If I'm remembering properly... it wasn't on the staff level.
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/01/michele_bachmann_campaign_finance_short.php
That's not it. There was something about the last week's payments of the campaign.
http://m.startribune.com/news/?id=186574921

quote:

A year after Michele Bachmann's presidential ambitions sputtered in Iowa, a close adviser is alleging that her political organization is withholding money from former staffers to keep them quiet about the turbulent final months of the campaign.

Peter Waldron, a national GOP operative, said Friday that senior Bachmann officials are demanding that he sign a confidentiality agreement that, he believes, would bar him from discussing "unethical, illegal, or immoral activity" on the campaign.

Rep. Bachmann, R-Minn., and the top echelon of her Iowa staff were hit with a lawsuit last year alleging the improper use of a Christian home-schooling organization's e-mail list. That allegation is the subject of an ongoing criminal investigation.

But two former Bachmann aides say the document is a standard campaign release agreement and has nothing to do with the lawsuit.

The dispute with Waldron is the latest in a series of organizational mishaps that plagued Bachmann's presidential campaign -- from mass resignations in New Hampshire to the abrupt resignation of campaign manager Ed Rollins and the 11th-hour defection of Iowa state Sen. Kent Sorenson, her state campaign chairman.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret
No, she won't be expelled. But I think she might be in some mildly deep stuff come '14.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret
I'm pretty sure it's Christine Quinn's race to lose. I'm really looking forward to that, if only for the St. Patrick's Day Parade.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret

De Nomolos posted:

Sadly, I think we're looking at an era where the Democratic Party will have greater pressure on it to promote media-friendly, cool politicians like Obama for quite some time.
(snip)
It's going to be tough to fight for more social democratic leaning issues as long as they have Booker and we have guys that look like Bernie Sanders.

I've said this before, I'll say it again. The Dems will shift right as the Republicans become regional. As soon as complete Democratic domination over the country is assured, the Dems will be too far right to maintain a coalition, and will split into a right and left party. It may be true that it'll be fights on the primary level rather than the election day level for a while, but the left will reappear, once the insane right is gone.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret

SedanChair posted:

Actual party splits are a bold prediction.

Eh. I think it's more the case that a party will be able to, what's the phrase, 'primary from the left'. Maybe not an actual split, but an effective one, equivalent to the tea party today.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret

Two Utes.

Edit: Heh. It's an actual tribe? In that case, it's a movie reference. (My Cousin Vinny)

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret

mcmagic posted:

Personal experience and the New Yorker Article (Among others)

I remember the New Yorker article, but I don't think it was about Chabad, just about the mitzvah tanks and the people who ride 'em.
Poor McMagic. He so wants the Democratic party to move FAAAAAR leftward.

That's not happening on the east coast while NY and NJ are money states. At least, not in the next few elections. Long game, I've said otherwise, but it's still not going to start from NY or NJ or PA. Not where the Machine is strong.

Dude, you got to recognize the condition of the system before you try to take it apart. You're just running into stone walls.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret

Popero posted:

The employer mandate part of the statute basically sucks anyway, so we shouldn't be sad about its delay, and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the administration health care people would prefer that it just went away forever.

I'm going to agree with that. (I also think they would have defunded that border wall in the immigration bill.)

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret
I'm just curious about how badly the NC style regressive behavior will affect senior citizens. Might cut in to some of that vote as well.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret
They can't last that much longer. Anyone got the good word on the next generations?
It would be an amusing thought, one of them passing on juuuust as Hillary declares.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret
That's pretty much entirely wrong. Man's seriously committed, and works hard as hell. Zero question on that. He pulls political stunts... but it's stuff like going out and shoveling people's driveways or literally running into burning buildings to save people.

He has done insanely amazing things to pull Newark out of the crash dive it was in.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret
But, again, it's something necessary to do his job in the location he's in. I'm very curious to see how he behaves once he's on a wider scale.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret
That was his dad who didn't pay the dues, apparently.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret
Indeed. Basically, Booker's no more a corporate stooge than any other politician of either party, who might be in his position and location.
Again, I _really_ look forward to seeing how his behavior changes once he hits DC. He may well turn into a Franken.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret

Willa Rogers posted:

Is that reference to Franken snark, or damning with faint praise?

More the latter. He's not perfect enough for you, I know.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret
I'll bite. What's wrong with Quinn? I've been mildly in favor of her for the various reasons of 'She seems like she's been hustling for it' 'Better than the guy who hosed the MTA up' 'Finally a solution to the St. Patrick's Day Parade issue' and 'She certainly seems competent judging from the fact that a lesbian is now head of the City Council who are all huge backbiters.' She seems to have enough talent for moving the graft around to get things done.

DeBlasio seems more morally upright, but I'm not sure he'd be as effective.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret
So, her pressing for the inspector general is cover? I understand that she wants to keep Kelly. He's... well, he's certainly been doing a job. But she has been hitting Stop and Frisk harder and harder each week. I'm not against Quinn's authoritarian streak, you need some ruthlessness to run this town. But, you know, convince me here. What would be the big difference between the two once they got into office? I mean, being Mayor is like being President. Probably the closest job to being President that isn't a Governor. You have limits and constituents you have to listen to. I dig DiBlasio says he's wanting this, this, and this, but I don't know if he'd get it. Quinn wants less, but I think she's more likely to get the lesser things she wants done. She grew up a minority, and I think that'll show in her governing. Convince me, here, I'm reachable.



http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/booker-so-what-does-it-matter-if-i
Bookerchat:

quote:

Booker told the Post that after that conversation he started dating more, although his courtship occurred strictly outside of the spotlight -- and not with Huffington Post founder Arianna Huffington, whom he was rumored to be seeing in 2007.

“Because how unfair is it to a young lady to put them in the spotlight if they haven’t signed up for that yet?” Booker said. “And people who think I’m gay, some part of me thinks it’s wonderful. Because I want to challenge people on their homophobia. I love seeing on Twitter when someone says I’m gay, and I say, ‘So what does it matter if I am? So be it. I hope you are not voting for me because you are making the presumption that I’m straight.’”

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret

The Warszawa posted:

The problem is that keeping Kelly, who I think we can all say is a True Believer in Stop and Frisk specifically and racial profiling more generally, really undercuts her expressed opposition, which is decidedly lukewarm. Her authoritarian streak seems to be, like her potential predecessor, directed towards stomping non-white New Yorkers and I think that's unacceptable.

I'd also hesitate to suggest that because Quinn grew up both a woman and LGBTQ, she's automatically going to govern favorably on issues that face other minorities (as if the LGBTQ community doesn't have its own problems with racism), especially since she's cozied up to Bloomberg - not exactly the progressive's progressive on race or gender.

I can see that being a problem, but again, like Tatum said, she strikes me as the 'realists choice'. I remember Dinkins. He was a good guy. He was nice. The city _ate_ him. Quinn, being a gay woman and making it to the head of the city council says that she has the, ah, willpower, to kick heads in when needed.

I'm maybe not the world's biggest progressive. I'm more an Eisenhower Republican. I believe in making the changes you can, and setting things up so the people after you can make more changes. Quinn strikes me as, even with her lesser goals, being able to perform better than DiBlasio. She says she wants to keep Kelly, and that's because Kelly has huge approval ratings. I'm sorry, but it's true, he's 'kept the city safe'. I suspect he's going to leave after she settles in, to go do something else, we've been hearing rumors.

I don't know how she'll do on the whole ethnic issue, but again, her performance on the city council says she's pretty good at handling factions back and forth, and that's what most of it will wind up being.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret
You're completely right about how the city treats blacks and hispanics. Now, how are you going to change it? It's always been the government selling out to the rich white people. When has it not? I work in drug treatment and homeless shelters. I know how bad things are, and I'm trying to make it better. I'm working for a better tomorrow. I just don't think a reformer can walk in and clean-sweep everything without running into massive fights with the unions. I think the inspector general is a good start. I'd rather federal oversight, though, the NYPD needs a good rear end-reaming.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret
Yeah. I'm dubious about the likely voter screen, myself, but it's going to come down to if his inspirational ability can match Quinn's machine get out the vote.

I'm liking this guy more every time I see him, though.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret

Willa Rogers posted:

New Q poll out today has de Blasio at 44 percent--and 47 percent of the African-American vote: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-york-city/release-detail?ReleaseID=1948

Well, drat. I'm pleased to admit I was wrong. Go deBlasio!

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret
There IS nothing farther than NYC. Being the Governor is a lesser title. Hell, being a Rep is a lesser title.
Senator? Depends largely on his performance and the field, but seriously, the only step up from NYC Mayor is the White House, and even then it's questionable.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret

Hamsack posted:

De Blasio is going to have to do little else besides remind people that, yes, Lhota is the Republican candidate and, no, he won't end stop and frisk.

Kills kittens.
Ran the MTA. Badly. Nobody likes the MTA bosses.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret
So... was he stoned when he said he was gonna kill that kitten?

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret
Depends entirely on if the events in congress depress the turnout for Rs. If the churches decide not to maximize GOTV results... all those 'safe' R zones that are 60% R and 40% D could flip at once, without people changing party alignment. It's the flip side of gerrymandering - it assumes a stable crowd voting.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret

Tatum Girlparts posted:

Yea taking the house is a pipe dream, but if they can pick some seats up that'd be a huge rally for Dems.

I'd say it's only mostly probably a pipe dream. There is always more, and it is always worse. If... WHEN the Republicans put their foot in it worse, and double-redouble down on their insanity, things could, in fact, get worse for them. The chance of this happening close enough to the elections they can't rebound in time is... pretty good, actually. One bad witchburning on Halloween could do it. Or Ted Cruz going for himself over party and dangling his balls somewhere.

Not great odds of it, but the fact that there are odds of it at all is pretty darn weird.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret
Interestingly, listening to the Capitalist Tool Radio Station (CBS AM) on the way in, and they had the WSJ commentator talking about "Some listeners have said I've been too biased against the Affordable Care Act, and they point out pre-existing conditions and so on." Said it twice on my way in, in two different ways, two different segments.

Not sure what it means, but I think it's significant.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret
Hey, I really like Prop 4. Prop, uhm, 5, with the mining, not so happy about.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret
She wasn't disbarred the last I heard. Which is a hell of a thing, really.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret
Rumor from a news reporter I know, who should know, says that the Libertarian Party is actually polling ahead of Da Brat. They might have a chance to pull this one out.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret

mcmagic posted:

Are you saying that is a bad thing?

quote:

What we've got here is failure to communicate. Some men you just can't reach. So you get what we had here last week, which is the way he wants it. Well, he gets it. I don't like it any more than you men.

Well, let's look at congress post-Tea Party.

And let's look at congress pre-Tea Party.

Yeah. Yeah, I like the other way round better.

(Shoot, a whole page of responses? Ignore me.)

I would like to say... drat, when did congress start flying home on weekends? That's Gingrich's fault, right? there used to be a magical time when they actually lived and worked together.

Warcabbit fucked around with this message at 18:48 on Jun 16, 2014

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret
Wrecking bar, too.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret

Joementum posted:

A man has changed his name to "human" to run for the New Hampshire State Legislature.

If you guessed that he would be a Libertarian with a goatee, you guessed correctly!

Well, I _was_ going to vote for Lizard People, but this guy seems all right.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret
http://electoral-vote.com/

Don't forget Andrew S. Tannenbaum's site. Before Nate showed up, he was rather handy.

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Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret
Okay, that's a good one. What retro political shirt would you be proud to wear? I Like Ike? All The Way With JFK?

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