Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Locked thread
Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos

Joementum posted:

Safe Democrat (no race): 34
Solid Democrat: 8 (DE, IL, MA, MI, NJ, NM, OR, RI)
Likely/Lean Democrat: 6 (CO, HI*, NH, LA, MN, MT)
Toss Up: 6 (AK, AR, IA, NC, SD, VA)
Likely/Lean Republican: 5 (GA, KY, ME, NE, WV)
Solid Republican: 10 (AL, ID, KS, MS, OK, SC, SC, TN, TX, WY)
Safe Republican (no race): 31

So, 48 D vs 46 R with six toss ups. * HI would normally be solid D, but their special election rules let multiple people from the same party run, which could split the vote.

Got all ready to write up a post about how Minnesota should be solid D but then I remembered how close Franken's election was. He has really good approval ratings and the Republican's don't have anyone awesome to run but I guess he can't be in the solid yet when he won by a hair after a crazy lizard people recount. Still don't see any Republican doing well against him, though I am still hoping for the comedy option Bachmann campaign.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos
I'd say 2014 in general is less of a safe win for Democrats just because so many of the seats up for reelection are from traditionally non-Democratic seats won in the 2008 wave. If they can make it through the 2014 election I'll count them safe but for now we could lose a few seats.

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos

Zeroisanumber posted:

Any chance that the island will sink?

Hey man Mackinac Island is awesome, don't punish it for Governor Snyder.

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos

computer parts posted:

You can be too stupid (which is correlated to race) to carry out a role, and that's exactly what happened the last time we had literacy tests.

There is a difference between stupidity and mental degradation. Have you known anyone with severe Alzheimers? They will not what what year/decade/century it is, who they are talking to even if it is people they have known their whole life, etc. You can be stupid and still bumble though a job, severe Alzheimers prevents you from being able to navigate your own house without getting lost.

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos
Where I am all we have is a school board election and a couple referendums, both about school funding. I know they are important but I'm sad to not have anything crazy going on.

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos

Install Windows posted:

I don't think you understand what fair drawing would be. Equal area is completely impermissible as districts have to have equal population. "rural areas have few people and cities have a lot" is utterly irrelevant to drawing fair boundaries.

That is exactly what he covered with "the margins in cities tend to be more lopsided than the margins in suburban and rural areas."
So even when the districts have the same populations Democrats are going to win cities by a higher margin than the Republicans win suburban and rural districts. E.g Democrats will win city districts 60-40 where Republicans will win a suburban district 55-45. This gives Republicans an advantage as there are less "wasted votes" (you only need to win by 1!).

Back in 2011/2012 there were articles about the Gerrymandering, and specifically the changes made by the new census. IIRC gerrymandering really only accounted for 7 or 9 seats for the Republicans, the rest were due to the above effect. So while gerrymandering will make it a lot harder for Democrats to gain majority control, it isn't the sole reason the Republicans have the majority now. Blame our lovely FPTP system for that. A proportional representative system would work better and allow multiple parties to actually have a say!

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos
IIRC a bunch of people hoped (assumed) Feingold would run in the reelection, and he probably would have stomped Walker. The problem is, no one bothered to check/ask Feingold and he announced he definitely wasn't running after the recall process was well underway.

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos
Also if servers regularly don't make minimum wage in tips it is often used as a reason to fire them. It goes against the whole idea of a service job, oh, you did a good job? Here, we'll pay you less! The tips should be purely used to make up for having to deal with the general public, not to cover for the fact that your employer wants to pay you under minimum wage, which is already a poverty level wage pretty much everywhere in the US.

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos
Saw this while trolling freep for quotes (thus the source): http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/06/10/Cantors-Graceless-Concession-Speech

quote:

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) failed to congratulate or even acknowledge Dave Brat in his concession speech last night.

Neither did Cantor offer Brat his support in November's general election against his Democratic opponent, or call Brat to concede the race, according to Brat.

"Cantor's concession speech did not mention Dave once," Brat's campaign manager Zach Werrell noted to Breitbart News.

Also this part at the end :lol:

quote:

Surprisingly, Cantor made no mention of the issue that ultimately led to his defeat: his support for granting amnesty to illegal aliens who entered the country as minors.

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos

FlamingLiberal posted:

Cantor officially resigned as House Majority Leader a minute ago.

Wait what, do you have a source on this? Not seeing anything, last I saw he was gonna resign(as ML) later in the summer.

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos

Lutha Mahtin posted:

Yes, US alcohol laws are incredibly stupid and often have no basis at all in attempting to intelligently mitigate risks in a scientific manner. I'm not trying to be the guy who ties it all back to localchat but the liquor law update bill debate this year here in MN was so stupid, mostly boiling down to the Teamsters badmouthing certain legislators who supported Sunday taproom sales because of purported labor contract issues that might come up if that were implemented.

Ehh I think the framing around that whole situation was terrible. The problem is that a ton of the liquor stores themselves don't want to repeal the laws, and a lot of the bar groups are good with the status quo too. The growler bill was a tiny step forward for a potential big loss in the form of a contract re-negotiation.

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos
As a Minnesotan I am quite pleased with Franken, most of the people I talk too are as well. I fully expect him to be reelected with a much higher margin than last time (not really possible for it to be smaller :v:). Remember we elected Jesse Ventura as governor, we don't give a poo poo about his comedian past, except possibly as a point of pride.

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos
At least LF isn't live anymore. Good luck to whatever journalist wants to figure out the archive system to find a bunch of posts on how Obama is Hitler.

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos

ReindeerF posted:

I'm fairly sure the 53,000 posts laughing at and wishing for the deaths of American soldiers would be slightly more problematic to American political hopefuls from the LF days.

Yeah probably. I mean there are just so many different things. Though I can see new generations fast not caring about that poo poo since they grew up with it.

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos
Well this was interesting, just got a Google Opinion Rewards (random surveys through google that give you google play money):


The thing is, Ortman isn't Franken's opponent, Mcfadden is. You might have heard of McFadden due to his... interesting campaign ads.

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos

Lutha Mahtin posted:

The Minnesota Independence Party is in bad shape. They've hung on to major party status by nominating competent people (and/or Jesse Ventura) for statewide races and pulling enough of the vote to keep that designation, but their candidates this year are a sad bunch. Hannah Nicollet, candidate for governor, is a GMO, raw milk and anti-fluoride nutter. The guy who won the primary for US Senate is even better:


http://www.mprnews.org/story/2014/08/14/independence-party

quote:

Low voter turnout and Carlson's Scandinavian name are probably the two biggest reasons he defeated Terrell, Jenkins said.
Hahaha :minnesota:

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos

Mo_Steel posted:

Minnesota

a law was recently passed to increase our minimum wage to $15 an hour (phased in over a number of years);

Thanks for doing a MN post! Just wanted to point out that this isn't true, it was raised to $9.50 an hour by 2016, then is tied to inflation starting 2018. It was a huge boost from our previous $6.15/hour state minimum wage, $5.15 for small corporations(fourth lowest in the country at the time), but isn't quite as awesome as $15/hour. Also it is great because McFadden, the guy challenging Franken for the Senate seat, is getting more publicity/name recognition than Jeff Johnson, who is challenging Dayton for the Governor seat, which means a lot of people are associated the idiotic McFadden commercials with the guy challenging Dayton.

Edit: Also I love Franken, but holy poo poo never sign up for his emails. That joke about politicians sending you a fundraising email every day is small potatoes compared to the Franken campaign. Before I unsubscribed I would get literally 4-6 different fundraising emails a day from them.

Fuck You And Diebold fucked around with this message at 06:20 on Sep 29, 2014

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos

Idran posted:

Isn't it being tied to inflation permanently starting 2018?

It is tied permanently to inflation starting 2018. During the process there was a lot of pushback from democrats worried that this was going to take away one of their best gotv issues, and there was also pushback both from democrats that thought it was too low and too high. We failed to get the same bill with a $10.55/hour minimum wage through the last session, so the 9.50 was a compromise that still needed a ton of pressure to get the (completely Democrat controlled house/Senate) to pass.

Edit: what MIGF is pointing out is that raising it to $15/hour by 2018 is a bigger raise than is going to 9.50 and tying it to inflation. Especially as the inflation raise is capped at 2.5% iirc. This doesn't mean we can't still fight for a raise to the minimum wage, and MPLS is gearing up for a $15/hour base just like Seattle from what I hear.

Fuck You And Diebold fucked around with this message at 07:24 on Sep 30, 2014

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos
Went hiking in Wisconsin recently and it was really depressing how many "I stand with Scott Walker" signs there were. Though it was rural Wisconsin what can you really expect.

Edit: also Straight Lake State Park is beautiful if you find yourself in NW Wisconsin.

Fuck You And Diebold fucked around with this message at 01:35 on Oct 9, 2014

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u54H2sV-0Hc

Video of them waiting for Scott.

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos

Sten Freak posted:

Finally, it's not just about the rights, but about the laws themselves. While it's a debate in itself I do not believe the laws themselves will prevent any crime or violence. I don't want to support people who pass legislation in a nebulous effort to do something without making a difference for society. Honestly I don't get the hate. I think I'm a informed reasonable person who would love to vote D if they'd drop this issue.

If gun control laws don't work then why do we see less gun crime in areas/countries that have stronger gun control laws and why do we see gun crime drop in areas that enact gun control? This is just one more topic I see conservatives blatantly ignoring the vast majority of evidence in favor of their pre selected stance.

Also when deciding Democratic vs Republican remember that state level is a very different conversation than nationally. At the state level look at Wisconsin and North Carolina and Michigan as to what Republicans do when they take control of a state. You can talk about the national level failures of the Democrats all day long, but at the state level there is a much bigger difference and Republicans will literally run your state into the ground until you end up with gravel roads like Texas.

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos

Jackson Taus posted:

Can you link-dump some of this evidence?

Phone posting, but some sources are:
Why Gun Laws Matter - Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence
States with Weak Gun Laws and Higher Gun Ownership Lead Nation in Gun Deaths
Study: States with more gun laws have less gun violence
Etc.
Also most pro gun people don't accept comparing counties "because the US is just different ok" but compare the US to any country with halfway decent gun control laws and they have a tiny amount of gun violence compared to us.

Fuck You And Diebold fucked around with this message at 02:22 on Oct 18, 2014

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos

axeil posted:


-Despite wanting to end the state monopoly on liquor and having basically the whole state saying "this is a good idea" failed to do so.

It's really a shame how PA did liquor. My city in MN has city only run liquor stores and they own. Clean, good selection, and the jobs are decent paying with benefits. The profits go back into schools/parks etc.

Edit: though we still can't buy alcohol on Sundays goddamn blue laws.

Fuck You And Diebold fucked around with this message at 18:12 on Oct 21, 2014

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos

Mo_Steel posted:

Election day being just around the corner, post the most helpful voting resources you got.

MINNESOTA

Minnesota goons should check to see if you are registered to vote on Tuesday and then go look at the Polling Place Finder tool to see where to vote and get a handy list of the candidates that will be on your ballot. It's worth the time to look at the websites that are provided by candidates on the list; it's a midterm election year nationally so your influence on downticket local races is about as big as it's going to get.

Not registered to vote in MN on election day? Good news, MN lets you register to vote at your polling place on election day! Show up with a drivers license with your current address or other combination of photo ID / bill with your address / person who is registered that will vouch for you and you're good to go.

Polling places in MN generally open at 7 a.m. and all of them close at 8 p.m., but if you're in line by 8 p.m. you will get to vote. Smaller towns ( < 500 residents ) might not open that early in the morning so be sure to check with your local election coordinator if you're unsure. Do you work four jobs? By law your employer must allow you time to vote without reduction in pay or using paid time off or vacation benefits, at the time of your choosing (be sure to notify your employer ahead of time as to when you will be going to vote though, for their sake and your coworkers sake). Did your car hit a deer doing it's best impression of Solid Snake and now you can't drive to the polls? Regular fixed route public transit is free in MN on election day and if that doesn't get you close enough you can try contacting the political parties to see if they will help get you to the polls (by law they cannot try to influence your vote while doing so).

Whew, that's a lot of information, but it's important. Whatever your political views, be sure to get to the polls. :)

From a few pages back, but just wanted to say thank you! If I didn't already live in the same state (MN represent) I would do the same. In lieu of that, http://www.rockthevote.com/ has good voter information pretty much wherever you are. http://ballotpedia.org/Main_Page also has good generic information of candidates/ballots for each state.

Edit: also get out and volunteer, in addition to the US senate there are a shitload of really close state house seats out there, and even Secretary of State races. You can make a big difference just reminding people to vote, even if you don't try to persuade them.

Fuck You And Diebold fucked around with this message at 06:20 on Nov 2, 2014

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos
My goal for Minnesota is to keep either the house or the SoS office. Both would be amazing but my pessimism says it is not to be.

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos

My Imaginary GF posted:

My goal for Minnesota is to get fly fishing season to open earlier. What do you think the odds on that are?

Considering it wasn't on the ballot I am going to say low. Though the DNR has been doing some crazy stuff! Looking at you wolf hunting licenses.

Edit:

Grand Theft Autobot posted:

I think the House stays and so does SoS. Dayton obviously wins by a strong margin.

Yeah I'm not worried at all about Franken or Dayton, but the house is close and the SoS race is really close too. What gives me hope is the crazy early/absentee voting turnout. The DFL has had a really good gotv effort as well. Hopefully it let's us keep the house and SoS!

Fuck You And Diebold fucked around with this message at 03:59 on Nov 4, 2014

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos

Grand Theft Autobot posted:

I'm going to be at Chatterbox Pub with some friends for the election results. I might be overconfident, but I really see the House sticking DFL. And, if not, getting the things we did out of it the last two years were worth losing it for.

Some gotv tomorrow then headed to the DFL party. Got some time off after the election so at least I'll have plenty of time to day drink should the worst happen!

  • Locked thread