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Habibi posted:Yeah, as I said in my edit, this is why I held off on him. Likewise, though he scored 40 last year, almost half (18) were on the powerplay, where you can be pretty sure he gets time with the law firm of Crosby, Malkin, Letang, et al. Uh, he'll be getting breakout passes 5 on 5 and fed on the PP from Erik Karlsson on my team, so I don't see how his production will be going down.
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Apr 14, 2013 18:27
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canuckanese posted:Ok I'm back from a weekend of debauchery. Really enjoyed catching up with the thread. Some thoughts:
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Apr 14, 2013 18:29
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Paulocaust posted:Uh, he'll be getting breakout passes 5 on 5 and fed on the PP from Erik Karlsson on my team, so I don't see how his production will be going down. Uh, okay. But he's not the best skater so your breakout passes to him have every chance of not getting you through the neutral zone. Conversely, his bread and butter are quick passes in the offensive zone (like most snipers). Karlsson is great and I'm sure he and Neal would make a great pair, but Karlsson is no Crosby/Malkin/Letang rolled into one, so yeah I wouldn't expect his production to continue at its current pace. In any case, I think Neal needs a forward playmaker to thrive. Just IMO. Habibi fucked around with this message at 18:35 on Apr 14, 2013 |
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Apr 14, 2013 18:33
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Habibi posted:But I think Neal needs a forward playmaker to thrive. Just IMO. Way ahead of you, brother.
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Apr 14, 2013 18:34
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Habibi posted:On the other hand, he scored 30 goals in his only full season, and was on a pace for 30 before Chara pyloned him. And again, he doesn't exactly have Neal's supporting cast, and is actually younger and cheaper. So, as far as I'm concerned, Patches has been flying under the radar. Yeah I'll be interested to see what you can put around him.
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Apr 14, 2013 18:35
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E: ^^^ loving probably not too god drat much the way this draft is going, which just makes it that much more important to find guys who can produce without surrounded by equal or better talent.Paulocaust posted:Way ahead of you, brother. Habibi fucked around with this message at 18:38 on Apr 14, 2013 |
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Apr 14, 2013 18:36
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I can see why Neal fell as far as he did. Wingers are generally the least important players on the ice, and even though he's scored 40 before he hasn't really shown he can be much more than a slightly above average top-six guy by himself. His 40 goals last year were more than he put up in his best year in junior. I'm not saying it's all the Malkin effect, but he's going to have a hard time proving he can be a top line guy without an elite playmaker next to him.
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Apr 14, 2013 18:40
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ThinkTank posted:I can see why Neal fell as far as he did. Wingers are generally the least important players on the ice, and even though he's scored 40 before he hasn't really shown he can be much more than a slightly above average top-six guy by himself. His 40 goals last year were more than he put up in his best year in junior. I'm not saying it's all the Malkin effect, but he's going to have a hard time proving he can be a top line guy without an elite playmaker next to him. In the last three season, only Ovie and Stamkos have more goals, yet he's only a slightly above average top 6 guy? The league average for goals from a top line forward isn't even 30 and the 40 goal guy is slightly above average for top 6? Not first line you say, but top 6? I think you guys forget some of the pure poo poo some teams on their top lines.
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Apr 14, 2013 18:44
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Goalscoring wingers are pretty important! Neal and Kessel were probably two of the last elite guys left, at least those with reasonable contracts. But there are certainly dozens of bargain 25-35 goal scorers who'll be available in the next I don't know... 3-4 rounds?
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Apr 14, 2013 18:45
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eXXon posted:Goalscoring wingers are pretty important! Neal and Kessel were probably two of the last elite guys left, at least those with reasonable contracts. But there are certainly dozens of bargain 25-35 goal scorers who'll be available in the next I don't know... 3-4 rounds? Are any of them 25, locked up for the next 6 years at 5m per? I feel like I'm getting poo poo on for this pick when it's a pretty good one. Maybe I'm just crazy.
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Apr 14, 2013 18:46
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It's your fault for not picking that guy instead. You know who I'm talking about. You'd better hope he's still available for your next pick.
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Apr 14, 2013 18:49
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Paulocaust posted:Are any of them 25, locked up for the next 6 years at 5m per? I feel like I'm getting poo poo on for this pick when it's a pretty good one. Maybe I'm just crazy. I think it's the opposite effect of a guy who puts up 60ish points on a bad team, where everyone assumes that if he just had some linemates, he would add, like, 20 points to his totals. With this, people are assuming the Malkin effect is a lot more drastic than it is, but forget that Neal was already highly touted in Dallas before getting traded to the Pens. Yeah, that team had a certain somebody not drafted yet, but Neal only had 2 powerplay goals that season. He didn't become a great goal scorer because of Malkin, he already was one. I think goal scorers get no respect, no respect.
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Apr 14, 2013 18:50
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eXXon posted:It's your fault for not picking that guy instead. You know who I'm talking about. You'd better hope he's still available for your next pick. I have a feeling I actually do know who you're talking about, but I could be way off. There's two certain centers I had higher on my shortlist, but figured I needed a pure goal scorer more. There's also two defensemen I want badly, but I'm not sure if they're as good as advertised or if it's east coast bias. e: I also realised you might be talking about that winger, but he's regressed and it'd be weird taking him now.
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Apr 14, 2013 18:54
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Paulocaust posted:Are any of them 25, locked up for the next 6 years at 5m per? I feel like I'm getting poo poo on for this pick when it's a pretty good one. Maybe I'm just crazy. It's a good pick and what looks to be a great contract. Like I said, I came very close to taking him a number of selections ago. But there are legitimate points to be made, like the fact that he is playing on a team that can make loving Dupuis and Kunitz look like real first line players, which is god damned astounding if you ask me. 40 goals is a hell of an achievement. But playing with some of the beat guys in the world is going to inflate your stats. From what I have actually seen of Neal, he has an incredible shot, but lacks the hands and mobility to make him an individual threat, IMO. And this is logically consistent with his production trends and the concerns people had about him playing away from Malkin/etc... So while I think it's a good pick, the reason I passed him up was because I know I'm not going to be able to provide really anywhere close to the mix of talent that he's benefited from, and as a result I'm just not sure enough he'd be able to take full advantage of his skillet, nor that I as the GM would see the full benefit of it.
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Apr 14, 2013 19:00
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Paulocaust posted:In the last three season, only Ovie and Stamkos have more goals, yet he's only a slightly above average top 6 guy? What? That's not even close to true. If you're counting this season he has 80 goals since 2010-11. If you're talking about since 2009-2010 he has 89. Since that number is bigger here's some goal totals for the past three seasons (09-10, 10-11, 11-12) using only players who have already been drafted. Stamkos - 131 Ovechkin - 120 Perry - 114 Kovalchuk - 109 Kessel - 99 Nash - 95 Malkin - 93 Crosby - 91 Semin - 89 (a tie!) Again, this is just guys who have been drafted already, there's a few more who have outscored him over the past three seasons. Even if you're talking about this season + 11-12 and 10-11, there are still a lot of guys ahead of him.
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Apr 14, 2013 19:07
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C'mon snake, show us the two players Crosby and Malkin are going to be spending the next 13 and 2 seasons playing with, respectively.
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Apr 14, 2013 19:07
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Paulocaust posted:I have a feeling I actually do know who you're talking about, but I could be way off. There's two certain centers I had higher on my shortlist, but figured I needed a pure goal scorer more. There's also two defensemen I want badly, but I'm not sure if they're as good as advertised or if it's east coast bias. The winger hasn't regressed. He's really really good. Young and on a great contract.
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Apr 14, 2013 19:08
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There's a great winger I have in mind but I don't think he'll survive until my next pick.
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Apr 14, 2013 19:11
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canuckanese posted:What? That's not even close to true. If you're counting this season he has 80 goals since 2010-11. If you're talking about since 2009-2010 he has 89. Since that number is bigger here's some goal totals for the past three seasons (09-10, 10-11, 11-12) using only players who have already been drafted. I literally just read an article that said that. I probably should check facts for myself. fake edit: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...medium=referral Woops, start of last season, I'm an idiot.
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Apr 14, 2013 19:18
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I got a winger in mind but I also need a goaltender and goddamn next pick is gonna be hard.
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Apr 14, 2013 19:38
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Neal scored his 40 last year without Crosby. He did play with Malkin who was the MVP though. Crosby played what, 20ish games? (it's still only a technicality)
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Apr 14, 2013 19:44
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I'm trying hard not to think about my pick since all the good players will be off the board but it's really hard can people just hurry up and pick everyone I want? e: also Neal is a terrific pick
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Apr 14, 2013 20:44
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James Neal is good at playing the game of hockey also a dirty player
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Apr 14, 2013 20:57
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Infidel Castro and the Sharks are up now. Hedman was a strange pick, especially considering Yandle - a good pick, by the way - went right after him.
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Apr 14, 2013 20:57
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snake drafts are torture
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Apr 14, 2013 21:06
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Austrian mook posted:I'm trying hard not to think about my pick since all the good players will be off the board but it's really hard can people just hurry up and pick everyone I want? There are boatloads of great players left. The more Ladds and Voynovs being picked, the more great players left for us.
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Apr 14, 2013 21:25
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Jordan7hm posted:There are boatloads of great players left. The more Ladds and Voynovs being picked, the more great players left for us. Whatever you say, guy who picked a goaltender in the 1st round.
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Apr 14, 2013 21:32
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Starsfan posted:Whatever you say, guy who picked a goaltender in the 1st round. I take offense to that statement good sir 
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Apr 14, 2013 21:38
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stab posted:I take offense to that statement good sir well I'm sorry, there's like 20 guys who have played 10+ games this year and put up save percentage over 92%. I mean it's not like the olden days in the 90's where there were like 5 guys in the entire league that were the star goaltenders who you wanted if you planned to win a Stanley Cup, every year there's that many guys that have breakout seasons and as many again who fall off the map. The market of 23 year old 1st pairing defenceman who are on pace for 45+ points in a full season and are stud defenders in their own end is a bit more limited. Concerning Tuukka Rask specifically, I think I would be concerned that Anton Khudobin is basically putting up numbers that are as good as Rask's. I suspect that Boston's strong defensive system has a strong positive effect on goaltender stats, so keep that in mind when evaluating goaltenders on the Bruins. I'm sure that's not really news to anyone who can remember Tim Thomas putting up the best statistical goaltender season of all time 3 years ago.
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Apr 14, 2013 21:48
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Verviticus posted:snake drafts are torture
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Apr 14, 2013 21:54
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mentholmoose posted:Hedman was a strange pick, especially considering Yandle - a good pick, by the way - went right after him. You will eat your words soon enough, mister. Hedman is slightly cheaper and way younger, and is not the same kind of player at all anyways. Plus he's 1 point back of Yandle and tied with Suter & the great Slava Voynov for ES points - he's just not getting as many chances on the PP. Also the whole having 40% o-zone starts with 50% finishes. His PDO is pretty high so he is benefiting from good luck but not much more than, say, Phaneuf. Precambrian Video Games fucked around with this message at 22:17 on Apr 14, 2013 |
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Apr 14, 2013 22:04
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Verviticus posted:snake drafts are torture 
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Apr 14, 2013 22:17
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Starsfan posted:well I'm sorry, there's like 20 guys who have played 10+ games this year and put up save percentage over 92%. I mean it's not like the olden days in the 90's where there were like 5 guys in the entire league that were the star goaltenders who you wanted if you planned to win a Stanley Cup, every year there's that many guys that have breakout seasons and as many again who fall off the map. The market of 23 year old 1st pairing defenceman who are on pace for 45+ points in a full season and are stud defenders in their own end is a bit more limited. There are 15 guys this year with 10+ games and .920+ save percentage. Corey Schneider is doing it for the third year in a row, Lundqvist is ridiculous, and Rask has done it three out of 4 years, barely missing the fourth year with a .918. That kind of consistency is rare. The other guys have all posted sub .915 in the last couple years or are basically rookie goalies going on no sample size. The difference between a .920 save percentage and a .915 save percentage for a starting goalie (60 games @ 30 shots per game) is about 10 goals (e: haha math... gently caress me). Boston's system definitely helps Rask, but he put up great numbers for Providence too. And I think Khudobin is a really good goalie who will be a starter somewhere soon. I think I may have erred in taking Rask over Pietrangelo / Letang, but those are really the only two guys who went right after who I think I missed on. I also think re: goalies and cup runs... it's loving luck. You can make a finals run with Leighton and Boucher back there. But you have a better chance of getting hot if the goalie is great to begin with. Having a really good backup is also important, if you can find a coach who isn't married to the starter. Jordan7hm fucked around with this message at 22:51 on Apr 14, 2013 |
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Apr 14, 2013 22:47
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Jordan7hm posted:There are 15 guys this year with 10+ games and .920+ save percentage. Corey Schneider is doing it for the third year in a row, Lundqvist is ridiculous, and Rask has done it three out of 4 years, barely missing the fourth year with a .918. That kind of consistency is rare. The other guys have all posted sub .915 in the last couple years or are basically rookie goalies going on no sample size. The difference between a .920 save percentage and a .915 save percentage for a starting goalie (60 games @ 30 shots per game) is about 90 goals. Boston's system definitely helps Rask, but he put up great numbers for Providence too. And I think Khudobin is a really good goalie who will be a starter somewhere soon. I think you mean 9 goals instead of 90. Which probably equates to about two wins difference in an 82 game season.
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Apr 14, 2013 22:49
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mentholmoose posted:I think you mean 9 goals instead of 90. Which probably equates to about two wins difference in an 82 game season. yeah, see edit. oops  e: If you believe GVT means anything, Rask is 5th in the league right now, having contributed a value of just shy of 20 goals to his team. Goalies are often really high on these charts, but the difference between the best goalie and a middling one can be significant. Bryz, for example, is -6 goals and 879th. (Voynov is 37th, and Ladd is 50th. It's an interesting list.) Jordan7hm fucked around with this message at 23:05 on Apr 14, 2013 |
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Apr 14, 2013 22:51
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i didn't pick schneider because i'd want consistently good goaltending that can be achieved through luck by a bad goaltender, it's that i didn't want to pull a st. louis blues this year and have an elite loving team barely making the playoffs because i have two average/slightly above average goalies that both poo poo the bed toronto is a bad team in the playoffs because of goaltending. the blues are a great team barely in the playoffs because of lovely goaltending. the flames are a borderline team with a lottery pick because their goaltending is unmitigated poo poo this year. an elite team that gets good goaltending wins the cup in 19 games. goaltending has largely kept the canucks, down a lot of good players, in contention. the list goes on and on edit: also lol at this comment Starsfan posted:well I'm sorry, there's like 20 guys who have played 10+ games this year and put up save percentage over 92%. dang, ten games!! thats like 300 saves
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Apr 14, 2013 23:13
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With the 57th pick in the SAS NHL Draft, the San Jose Sharks select, from the University of Wisconsin, Ryan McDonagh. Pos: Defence Age: 23 Cap hit: $1,300,000 Signed through: 2102-13 (RFA) I'm surprised he's made it this far down. Granted, he's been a bit more inconsistent this year than last, but there's just way too much talent here to pass up. McDonagh's only 23, has proven himself as a top-pair defenceman, and will only get better. While McDonagh only has one year left on his current contract, he'll be a RFA, effectively keeping him under team control for the foreseeable future.
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Apr 14, 2013 23:15
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Verviticus posted:toronto is a bad team in the playoffs because of goaltending. Hahahaha what? As funny as that is in it's own right, did you forget the Leafs are tied for 3rd in the league in goals scored?
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Apr 14, 2013 23:17
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Infidel Castro posted:With the 57th pick in the SAS NHL Draft, the San Jose Sharks select, from the University of Wisconsin, Ryan McDonagh. Didn't think he would come to me.
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Apr 14, 2013 23:18
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Paulocaust posted:Hahahaha what? Aren't all their players shooting unaturally high right now? Another thing, aren't they near the bottom in Fenwick Close? That's right I can fancy stats as well 
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Apr 14, 2013 23:22
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