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Basil Hayden
Oct 9, 2012

1921!


What is a Moon Poll, exactly?
A moon poll is a goon-created computer ranking of college football teams. In past years, my understanding is that they usually limited their focus to teams in FBS, but there's enough data for at least some systems to be able to rate pretty much every college with a varsity football team (except that one New England conference in DIII that doesn't play OOC games). I'll warn you that if you do this you're likely to see undefeated teams from lower divisions sneaking into the overall top 40, though. Being computer rankings, they're usually all over the map in a hilarious fashion for much of the season but will settle on something close to a consensus near the end.

Incidentally, I have no idea who coined "moon poll" but I love the phrasing. Last year's thread is here and I don't think it's sunk into the archives yet.

How do I make a Moon Poll?
You're almost certainly going to need an algorithm of some sort. You can program it yourself, or work out something in Excel (a number of people in last year's thread seemed to be doing this, myself included). As for your criteria, you can really pick anything you like. More conventional systems tend to rely on who beat who and by how many points, but as an example wa27's rather unique poll uses VegasInsider data. David Wilson has a pretty substantial listing of a bunch of existing systems; most of them keep their formulas secret but some of them clearly explain the math behind what they're doing, if you want something to work from and can follow it. Once you get something going, post your rankings in this thread each week!

Where do I get data?
The NCAA has a page you can get .csv files from. Look for "Schedules and Results".

This page, maintained by Peter Wolfe (whose rankings the BCS uses), will be updated throughout the season with a list of game results. Wolfe includes every division which is nice provided you want to rate every division.

I know there are other places to get this stuff from but it's been a while since I've looked into this kind of thing so I can't remember what they are. Again, please let me know if you've got any sources to add -- the two links I have now only have win-loss and points data, which isn't very helpful if you want to base your rankings on yardage or turnover margin or cumulative number of fans played in front of per official attendance numbers or something.

Anything else?
I'll be doing weekly compilations of rankings throughout the season, like I did last year. These come complete with deviation measures, BCS comparisons, a Bottom Ten just for fun, and of course big tables with tiny football helmets in them.

It's worth noting, however, that for mathematical reasons a lot of systems rely on all of the teams you want to rank being "connected" to one another and consequently don't even produce results for the first couple of weeks.

Basil Hayden fucked around with this message at Aug 20, 2013 around 20:23

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JesustheDarkLord
May 22, 2006

#VolsDeep


I've got my poll from last year ready for new data! I meant to tweak the formula in the offseason but I didn't and probably won't.

Will Styles
Jan 19, 2005


Thanks Basil! I'm looking forward to the new year.

JesustheDarkLord posted:

I've got my poll from last year ready for new data! I meant to tweak the formula in the offseason but I didn't and probably won't.

I tried to tweak my formula from last year over the summer but everything I changed made the results worse I'm still working on it but I'll probably end up using the same formulas again.

Mukaikubo
Mar 14, 2006

"You treat her like a lady... and she'll always bring you home."


I am super hype to deploy The Son Of The Mukai Moon Poll (as seen here!). It is going to be The Hindenberg Mark II, but I am excited to be in the center of the firestorm even so.

Libertine
Jun 21, 2004

Bear Don't Care


I did one a few years back and just stumbled on this thread again. Perhaps I will check my old tables and see if I can't reincarnate the old system.

MC Fruit Stripe
Nov 26, 2002

When life gives you lemons DANCE DANCE DANCE!

Paid in part by CF


I don't think I even watched a snap last year, yet I still goose stepped around the thread like a psychopath, declaring myself the one true voice of reason. Always a good time. How little attention did I pay last year? I didn't know Notre Dame played in the title game until today.

This year I plan to actually watch CFB, however I'll tone down the ego, just for you's guys.

JetsGuy
Sep 17, 2003

science + hockey
=
LASER SKATES


MC Fruit Stripe posted:

I don't think I even watched a snap last year, yet I still goose stepped around the thread like a psychopath, declaring myself the one true voice of reason. Always a good time. How little attention did I pay last year? I didn't know Notre Dame played in the title game until today.

This year I plan to actually watch CFB, however I'll tone down the ego, just for you's guys.

MCFS no longer sports his Fruit Stripe Gum logo av, all creditability lost.

MC Fruit Stripe
Nov 26, 2002

When life gives you lemons DANCE DANCE DANCE!

Paid in part by CF


Well that's just unfair.

I didn't have any credibility in the first place.

Captain von Trapp
Jan 22, 2006

I don't like it, and I'm sorry I ever had anything to do with it.

My poll produces spurious results before all teams are connected via actual games, but as a quirk on top of that it does produce a technically meaningful Week 1 result:

1-T. Every Division 1 team that won against a Division 1 opponent in week 1.
2-T. Every Division 1 team that lost against a Division 1 opponent in week 1.

Meltathon
Nov 17, 2005

Let's Dance!


JesustheDarkLord posted:

I've got my poll from last year ready for new data! I meant to tweak the formula in the offseason but I didn't and probably won't.

This is me exactly. I meant to spend some time in the Summer improving my spreadsheet, but actually doing outdoor things took precedence. I'll probably do one poll with last year's formula and work on a brand new spreadsheet and tweak as the year goes by. I won't post anything until at least week 4 though.

Korranus
Jan 8, 2001



I tried using Sagarin as a quick SOS adjuster and got something resembling an order of teams by how badly they blew out a FBS opponent -

1. Washington
2. Oklahoma State
3. Alabama
4. Bowling Green
5. Florida State
6. Oklahoma
7. Cincinnati
8. Louisville
9. Florida
10. Notre Dame
11. Baylor
12. McNeese State
13. Michigan
14. Arizona
15. South Carolina
16. San Jose State
17. Miami (FL)
18. Wisconsin
19. Texas
20. Eastern Illinois
21. Georgia Tech
22. Maryland
23. UCF
24. North Texas
25. NC State

And a bottom 10 consisting of everyone who lost to FCS teams:

10. Miami (OH)
9. Idaho
8. Kansas State
7. South Alabama
6. Oregon State
5. Iowa State
4. Georgia State
3. UConn
2. San Diego State
1. South Florida


Which is kinda garbage considering the best wins of the week belong to #60 Clemson, #44 LSU, and #50 Eastern Washington. Regular Washington at #1 works

Korranus fucked around with this message at Sep 3, 2013 around 19:04

Mukaikubo
Mar 14, 2006

"You treat her like a lady... and she'll always bring you home."


I would make a poll-like substance if I could get the stats, the NCAA appears to be being slow about uploading them to http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/download.jsp?year=2013&div=IA

Tad SG
Apr 16, 2003

Here are provided seats of meditative joy, where shall rise again the destined reign of Troy.


It looks like they moved the stats to a new site this year, and it is much less convenient to use:

http://stats.ncaa.org/rankings/change_sport_year_div

edit:

Also, week 1 is always hilarious. Since I weigh Away wins higher than home wins, and wins over FCS teams don't count for anything, my top 10 is pretty much any team that handily won an away game. My poll has UTSA ranked in 4th place, for going on the road to beat New Mexico, and Texas State at 5th for beating Southern Mississippi on the road. As the season goes on the poll will recognize that those teams are probably awful, but for now the poll is very impressed!

Tad SG fucked around with this message at Sep 5, 2013 around 00:01

Mukaikubo
Mar 14, 2006

"You treat her like a lady... and she'll always bring you home."


Tad SG posted:

It looks like they moved the stats to a new site this year, and it is much less convenient to use:

http://stats.ncaa.org/rankings/change_sport_year_div



Jesus christ, that's USELESS. Looks like this moon poll might be dead in the water.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

The general increasing love of athletics is benefiting our young men, and making their lives better and more worth the living.

Mukaikubo posted:

Jesus christ, that's USELESS. Looks like this moon poll might be dead in the water.

Looks like the only way to automate it is via page scrapes. If you go over to "Teams" you can create a URL with the team number and then increment the index for the stat you want. Download the whole page, pull out the numbers of interest, then download the next one.

It's still going to be incredibly slow to get 125 teams x 6 or 8 pages per team.

Uncle Jam
Aug 20, 2005

Perfect


Deteriorata posted:

Looks like the only way to automate it is via page scrapes. If you go over to "Teams" you can create a URL with the team number and then increment the index for the stat you want. Download the whole page, pull out the numbers of interest, then download the next one.

It's still going to be incredibly slow to get 125 teams x 6 or 8 pages per team.

In 'Misc Reports' there is a WLT report that has all the teams on the same page. Also Toughest Schedule is there (not filled yet)

Also if you go to 'Trends' then sort by Institution, you can get all the teams on the same page, but you still have to choose the stat category you want.

Its not great but you might be able to get what you need after a few copy and pastes. Some schedule specific algos could still be hosed though.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

The general increasing love of athletics is benefiting our young men, and making their lives better and more worth the living.

Uncle Jam posted:

In 'Misc Reports' there is a WLT report that has all the teams on the same page. Also Toughest Schedule is there (not filled yet)

Also if you go to 'Trends' then sort by Institution, you can get all the teams on the same page, but you still have to choose the stat category you want.

Its not great but you might be able to get what you need after a few copy and pastes. Some schedule specific algos could still be hosed though.

Yeah, that works if all you care about are wins and losses, but if you're trying to evaluate on stats there doesn't seem to be any recourse but scraping.

I was thinking about resurrecting mine, but at this point I would have to rewrite it completely so I'm probably not going to.

Uncle Jam
Aug 20, 2005

Perfect


Deteriorata posted:

Yeah, that works if all you care about are wins and losses, but if you're trying to evaluate on stats there doesn't seem to be any recourse but scraping.

I was thinking about resurrecting mine, but at this point I would have to rewrite it completely so I'm probably not going to.

Trends is the stats page. They're not all on ONE page but its not as ridiculous as going through all 110 teams or whatever.
It also copies fine into notepad for easy delimiting too.

Captain von Trapp
Jan 22, 2006

I don't like it, and I'm sorry I ever had anything to do with it.

For those whose polls only need team names, scores, dates, and home/away, they're available in CSV here:
http://www.ncaa.org/wps/wcm/connect.../schedules.html

Will Styles
Jan 19, 2005


Last I checked those CSVs don't contain the score.

Mukaikubo
Mar 14, 2006

"You treat her like a lady... and she'll always bring you home."


Captain von Trapp posted:

For those whose polls only need team names, scores, dates, and home/away, they're available in CSV here:
http://www.ncaa.org/wps/wcm/connect.../schedules.html

I found that, actually, but I can't see that they've updated it with the week 1 scores anywhere.

Captain von Trapp
Jan 22, 2006

I don't like it, and I'm sorry I ever had anything to do with it.

Huh, you're right, they don't contain the score. I hope that just means they don't contain the score yet. I used these files last year and assumed that "Download 2013 Schedule and results listing as CSV file" meant that I could download the 2013 schedule and results listing as a CSV file.

NCAA

Tad SG
Apr 16, 2003

Here are provided seats of meditative joy, where shall rise again the destined reign of Troy.


I use this page as the input for my poll - contains home/away, win/loss, and scores.


http://www.jhowell.net/cf/scores/Sked2013.htm

Mukaikubo
Mar 14, 2006

"You treat her like a lady... and she'll always bring you home."


Captain von Trapp posted:

For those whose polls only need team names, scores, dates, and home/away, they're available in CSV here:
http://www.ncaa.org/wps/wcm/connect.../schedules.html

Update: They removed the part where they claim results will be in that csv file too. So it's official. Unless something changes in the next few weeks, no moon poll from me this year, I really don't want to figure out another parsing method for another data tool after the assache getting this one down was.

Uncle Jam
Aug 20, 2005

Perfect


Mukaikubo posted:

Update: They removed the part where they claim results will be in that csv file too. So it's official. Unless something changes in the next few weeks, no moon poll from me this year, I really don't want to figure out another parsing method for another data tool after the assache getting this one down was.

They also removed their 'Trend' page from the current stats page, those fuckers. I just built a read in function for that poo poo too.

Captain von Trapp
Jan 22, 2006

I don't like it, and I'm sorry I ever had anything to do with it.

That is friggin' infuriating. I need some kind of machine-readable data for the poll to work, and I'm sure everyone else does too. I've googled around to see if anyone else has a spreadsheet, but so far there's nothing very good. I'd assume some website somewhere will have some data - the betting sites maybe - but you'd expect that the NCAA wouldn't go out of their way to kill a useful resource.

Here's some score data at least, but it mixes NAIA data in and it'll be irritating to disentangle:
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/scores.htm

Tad SG
Apr 16, 2003

Here are provided seats of meditative joy, where shall rise again the destined reign of Troy.


Here's the closest I can find to the old format for the NCAA stats pages.
Stats: http://www.cfbstats.com/2013/national/index.html

Captain von Trapp
Jan 22, 2006

I don't like it, and I'm sorry I ever had anything to do with it.

Tad SG posted:

Here's the closest I can find to the old format for the NCAA stats pages.
Stats: http://www.cfbstats.com/2013/national/index.html

Ok, this is usable. It's formatted in a kind of screwball way, so I'll actually have to read in three separate files: the one that associates team names with team numbers, the one that associates team numbers with game codes, and the one that associates game codes with game scores.

But it's CSV, which is at least vastly easier to do than trying to write some website scraper. If there's interest, I can try to whip up some code to convert the cfbstats.com file to the old NCAA CSV format.

Uncle Jam
Aug 20, 2005

Perfect


Captain von Trapp posted:

Ok, this is usable. It's formatted in a kind of screwball way, so I'll actually have to read in three separate files: the one that associates team names with team numbers, the one that associates team numbers with game codes, and the one that associates game codes with game scores.

But it's CSV, which is at least vastly easier to do than trying to write some website scraper. If there's interest, I can try to whip up some code to convert the cfbstats.com file to the old NCAA CSV format.

I found most of the stats I want in team-game-statistics, but where are the W-L records or game scores? It'd be nice to not have to compile them from the game statistics or however you could retrieve them.

Even with team-game-statistics, I'd like to have the aggregate over the season, which isn't bad to do but still.

Captain von Trapp
Jan 22, 2006

I don't like it, and I'm sorry I ever had anything to do with it.

Uncle Jam posted:

I found most of the stats I want in team-game-statistics, but where are the W-L records or game scores? It'd be nice to not have to compile them from the game statistics or however you could retrieve them.

Even with team-game-statistics, I'd like to have the aggregate over the season, which isn't bad to do but still.

team-game-statistics.cvs has a "points" stat buried somewhere in the middle (in column AJ if you open it in Excel). So you can extract data along the lines of "Team #21 played in Game #52 and scored 14 points". It's awkward, but usable.

Captain von Trapp
Jan 22, 2006

I don't like it, and I'm sorry I ever had anything to do with it.

After a really embarrassingly long time of coding, I wrote a Python script to convert the cfbstats.com files to the NCAA csv format. Please spot-check it to make sure I haven't borked the coding somewhere. Sadly it's just FBS. If someone finds this kind of data for FCS let me know and I'll include it as well. This is the result from cfbstats.com's data on their website now, which does not yet include this weekend's games. When it does I'll post that as well.

code:
5,Akron,8/29/2013,128,UCF,7,38,Away
8,Alabama,8/31/2013,742,Virginia Tech,35,10,Neutral Site
9,UAB,8/31/2013,716,Troy,31,34,Away
29,Arizona,8/30/2013,501,Northern Arizona,35,0,Home
30,Arkansas State,8/31/2013,2678,Arkansas-Pine Bluff,62,11,Home
31,Arkansas,8/31/2013,671,Louisiana-Lafayette,34,14,Neutral Site
37,Auburn,8/31/2013,754,Washington State,31,24,Home
43,Austin Peay,8/31/2013,694,Tennessee,0,45,Away
47,Ball State,8/29/2013,299,Illinois State,51,28,Home
51,Baylor,8/31/2013,2915,Wofford,69,3,Home
66,Boise State,8/31/2013,756,Washington,6,38,Away
67,Boston College,8/31/2013,739,Villanova,24,14,Home
71,Bowling Green,8/29/2013,719,Tulsa,34,7,Home
77,BYU,8/31/2013,746,Virginia,16,19,Away
86,Buffalo,8/31/2013,518,Ohio State,20,40,Away
96,Fresno State,8/29/2013,587,Rutgers,52,51,Home
102,Sacramento State,8/29/2013,630,San Jose State,0,24,Away
107,California,8/31/2013,509,Northwestern,30,44,Home
110,UCLA,8/31/2013,466,Nevada,58,20,Home
128,UCF,8/29/2013,5,Akron,38,7,Home
129,Central Michigan,8/31/2013,418,Michigan,9,59,Away
140,Cincinnati,8/31/2013,559,Purdue,42,7,Home
147,Clemson,8/31/2013,257,Georgia,38,35,Home
153,Colgate,8/31/2013,721,Air Force,13,38,Away
156,Colorado State,9/1/2013,157,Colorado,27,41,Neutral Site
157,Colorado,9/1/2013,156,Colorado State,41,27,Neutral Site
164,Connecticut,8/29/2013,711,Towson,18,33,Home
193,Duke,8/31/2013,489,N.C. Central,45,0,Home
196,East Carolina,8/31/2013,523,Old Dominion,52,38,Home
201,Eastern Illinois,8/31/2013,626,San Diego State,40,19,Away
204,Eastern Michigan,8/31/2013,290,Howard,34,24,Home
207,Eastern Washington,8/31/2013,528,Oregon State,49,46,Away
229,Florida Atlantic,8/30/2013,415,Miami (Florida),6,34,Away
231,Florida International,8/31/2013,392,Maryland,10,43,Away
234,Florida State,9/2/2013,545,Pittsburgh,41,13,Away
235,Florida,8/31/2013,709,Toledo,24,6,Home
254,Georgia State,8/30/2013,625,Samford,21,31,Home
255,Georgia Tech,8/31/2013,1068,Elon,70,0,Home
257,Georgia,8/31/2013,147,Clemson,35,38,Away
277,Hawai'i,8/29/2013,657,USC,13,30,Home
288,Houston,8/30/2013,665,Southern University,62,13,Home
290,Howard,8/31/2013,204,Eastern Michigan,24,34,Away
295,Idaho,8/31/2013,497,North Texas,6,40,Away
299,Illinois State,8/29/2013,47,Ball State,28,51,Away
301,Illinois,8/31/2013,659,Southern Illinois,42,34,Home
305,Indiana State,8/29/2013,306,Indiana,35,73,Away
306,Indiana,8/29/2013,305,Indiana State,73,35,Home
311,Iowa State,8/31/2013,504,Northern Iowa,20,28,Home
312,Iowa,8/31/2013,503,Northern Illinois,27,30,Home
314,Jackson State,8/29/2013,718,Tulane,7,34,Away
327,Kansas State,8/30/2013,493,North Dakota State,21,24,Home
331,Kent State,8/29/2013,355,Liberty,17,10,Home
334,Kentucky,8/31/2013,772,Western Kentucky,26,35,Neutral Site
355,Liberty,8/29/2013,331,Kent State,10,17,Away
365,LSU,8/31/2013,698,TCU,37,27,Neutral Site
366,Louisiana Tech,8/31/2013,490,North Carolina State,14,40,Away
367,Louisville,9/1/2013,519,Ohio,49,7,Home
388,Marshall,8/31/2013,414,Miami (Ohio),52,14,Home
392,Maryland,8/31/2013,231,Florida International,43,10,Home
400,Massachusetts,8/31/2013,796,Wisconsin,0,45,Away
402,McNeese State,8/31/2013,651,South Florida,53,21,Away
414,Miami (Ohio),8/31/2013,388,Marshall,14,52,Away
415,Miami (Florida),8/30/2013,229,Florida Atlantic,34,6,Home
416,Michigan State,8/30/2013,774,Western Michigan,26,13,Home
418,Michigan,8/31/2013,129,Central Michigan,59,9,Home
419,Middle Tennessee,8/29/2013,769,Western Carolina,45,24,Home
428,Minnesota,8/29/2013,465,UNLV,51,23,Home
430,Mississippi State,8/31/2013,521,Oklahoma State,3,21,Neutral Site
433,Mississippi,8/29/2013,736,Vanderbilt,39,35,Away
434,Missouri,8/31/2013,454,Murray State,58,14,Home
446,Morgan State,8/30/2013,725,Army,12,28,Away
454,Murray State,8/31/2013,434,Missouri,14,58,Away
457,North Carolina,8/29/2013,648,South Carolina,10,27,Away
463,Nebraska,8/31/2013,811,Wyoming,37,34,Home
465,UNLV,8/29/2013,428,Minnesota,23,51,Away
466,Nevada,8/31/2013,110,UCLA,20,58,Away
472,New Mexico State,8/31/2013,703,Texas,7,56,Away
473,New Mexico,8/31/2013,706,UTSA,13,21,Home
483,Nicholls State,8/31/2013,529,Oregon,3,66,Away
489,N.C. Central,8/31/2013,193,Duke,0,45,Away
490,North Carolina State,8/31/2013,366,Louisiana Tech,40,14,Home
493,North Dakota State,8/30/2013,327,Kansas State,24,21,Away
497,North Texas,8/31/2013,295,Idaho,40,6,Home
498,Louisiana-Monroe,8/31/2013,522,Oklahoma,0,34,Away
501,Northern Arizona,8/30/2013,29,Arizona,0,35,Away
503,Northern Illinois,8/31/2013,312,Iowa,30,27,Away
504,Northern Iowa,8/31/2013,311,Iowa State,28,20,Away
509,Northwestern,8/31/2013,107,California,44,30,Away
513,Notre Dame,8/31/2013,690,Temple,28,6,Home
518,Ohio State,8/31/2013,86,Buffalo,40,20,Home
519,Ohio,9/1/2013,367,Louisville,7,49,Away
521,Oklahoma State,8/31/2013,430,Mississippi State,21,3,Neutral Site
522,Oklahoma,8/31/2013,498,Louisiana-Monroe,34,0,Home
523,Old Dominion,8/31/2013,196,East Carolina,38,52,Away
528,Oregon State,8/31/2013,207,Eastern Washington,46,49,Home
529,Oregon,8/31/2013,483,Nicholls State,66,3,Home
539,Penn State,8/31/2013,688,Syracuse,23,17,Neutral Site
545,Pittsburgh,9/2/2013,234,Florida State,13,41,Home
559,Purdue,8/31/2013,140,Cincinnati,7,42,Away
574,Rice,8/31/2013,697,Texas A&M,31,52,Away
587,Rutgers,8/29/2013,96,Fresno State,51,52,Away
625,Samford,8/30/2013,254,Georgia State,31,21,Away
626,San Diego State,8/31/2013,201,Eastern Illinois,19,40,Home
630,San Jose State,8/29/2013,102,Sacramento State,24,0,Home
646,South Alabama,8/29/2013,667,Southern Utah,21,22,Home
648,South Carolina,8/29/2013,457,North Carolina,27,10,Home
651,South Florida,8/31/2013,402,McNeese State,21,53,Home
657,USC,8/29/2013,277,Hawai'i,30,13,Away
659,Southern Illinois,8/31/2013,301,Illinois,34,42,Away
663,SMU,8/30/2013,700,Texas Tech,23,41,Home
664,Southern Mississippi,8/31/2013,670,Texas State,15,22,Home
665,Southern University,8/30/2013,288,Houston,13,62,Away
667,Southern Utah,8/29/2013,646,South Alabama,22,21,Away
670,Texas State,8/31/2013,664,Southern Mississippi,22,15,Away
671,Louisiana-Lafayette,8/31/2013,31,Arkansas,14,34,Neutral Site
688,Syracuse,8/31/2013,539,Penn State,17,23,Neutral Site
690,Temple,8/31/2013,513,Notre Dame,6,28,Away
694,Tennessee,8/31/2013,43,Austin Peay,45,0,Home
697,Texas A&M,8/31/2013,574,Rice,52,31,Home
698,TCU,8/31/2013,365,LSU,27,37,Neutral Site
700,Texas Tech,8/30/2013,663,SMU,41,23,Away
703,Texas,8/31/2013,472,New Mexico State,56,7,Home
706,UTSA,8/31/2013,473,New Mexico,21,13,Away
709,Toledo,8/31/2013,235,Florida,6,24,Away
711,Towson,8/29/2013,164,Connecticut,33,18,Away
716,Troy,8/31/2013,9,UAB,34,31,Home
718,Tulane,8/29/2013,314,Jackson State,34,7,Home
719,Tulsa,8/29/2013,71,Bowling Green,7,34,Away
721,Air Force,8/31/2013,153,Colgate,38,13,Home
725,Army,8/30/2013,446,Morgan State,28,12,Home
731,Utah State,8/29/2013,732,Utah,26,30,Away
732,Utah,8/29/2013,731,Utah State,30,26,Home
736,Vanderbilt,8/29/2013,433,Mississippi,35,39,Home
739,Villanova,8/31/2013,67,Boston College,14,24,Away
742,Virginia Tech,8/31/2013,8,Alabama,10,35,Neutral Site
746,Virginia,8/31/2013,77,BYU,19,16,Home
749,Wake Forest,8/29/2013,1320,Presbyterian,31,7,Home
754,Washington State,8/31/2013,37,Auburn,24,31,Away
756,Washington,8/31/2013,66,Boise State,38,6,Home
768,West Virginia,8/31/2013,786,William & Mary,24,17,Home
769,Western Carolina,8/29/2013,419,Middle Tennessee,24,45,Away
772,Western Kentucky,8/31/2013,334,Kentucky,35,26,Neutral Site
774,Western Michigan,8/30/2013,416,Michigan State,13,26,Away
786,William & Mary,8/31/2013,768,West Virginia,17,24,Away
796,Wisconsin,8/31/2013,400,Massachusetts,45,0,Home
811,Wyoming,8/31/2013,463,Nebraska,34,37,Away
1068,Elon,8/31/2013,255,Georgia Tech,0,70,Away
1320,Presbyterian,8/29/2013,749,Wake Forest,7,31,Away
2678,Arkansas-Pine Bluff,8/31/2013,30,Arkansas State,11,62,Away
2915,Wofford,8/31/2013,51,Baylor,3,69,Away

wa27
Jan 14, 2007



I'll be doing my poll this year; the first few weeks are always too close to last year's results to be interesting though.

Captain von Trapp posted:

After a really embarrassingly long time of coding, I wrote a Python script to convert the cfbstats.com files to the NCAA csv format. Please spot-check it to make sure I haven't borked the coding somewhere. Sadly it's just FBS. If someone finds this kind of data for FCS let me know and I'll include it as well. This is the result from cfbstats.com's data on their website now, which does not yet include this weekend's games. When it does I'll post that as well.

I don't use this data but thanks for doing that! I hope everyone can get their polls up and running again this year.

Frolic
Oct 21, 2005


Captain von Trapp posted:

After a really embarrassingly long time of coding, I wrote a Python script to convert the cfbstats.com files to the NCAA csv format. Please spot-check it to make sure I haven't borked the coding somewhere. Sadly it's just FBS. If someone finds this kind of data for FCS let me know and I'll include it as well. This is the result from cfbstats.com's data on their website now, which does not yet include this weekend's games. When it does I'll post that as well.


Thanks for this! The only difference I can find is that the ncaa csv didn't list FBS vs FCS twice. It would have an entry with FBS VS FCS but there wouldn't be a reverse entry FCS vs FBS like there is for FBS vs FBS. Hopefully that makes sense!

I was using that to figure out which teams were FBS/FCS.

But my program did load your list and do it's thing which is awesome. Came out pretty crazy though which I think will settle down with a little tweaking + a few more weeks data.

Captain von Trapp
Jan 22, 2006

I don't like it, and I'm sorry I ever had anything to do with it.

Frolic posted:

Thanks for this! The only difference I can find is that the ncaa csv didn't list FBS vs FCS twice. It would have an entry with FBS VS FCS but there wouldn't be a reverse entry FCS vs FBS like there is for FBS vs FBS. Hopefully that makes sense!

I was using that to figure out which teams were FBS/FCS.

But my program did load your list and do it's thing which is awesome. Came out pretty crazy though which I think will settle down with a little tweaking + a few more weeks data.

Ok, cool. I'll probably try to implement that double-listing thing on next week's iteration so it exactly reproduces the old DIVISIONB.CSV. I'm still holding out hope I can find some machine-readable data source for FCS games, which would make this a lot easier and additionally reproduce the old DIVISIONC.CSV which would help some of us (including me) rank FCS teams. Please everyone keep an eye out for FCS data.

cfbstats.com just updated their stats file through this weekend, so here's my parsing of it. As pointed out, it's not quite identical to DIVISIONB.CSV yet because it lists all games including FBS/FCS games twice. Apologies for the wall of text - next week I'll find a host.

code:
5,Akron,9/7/2013,317,James Madison,35,33,Home
5,Akron,8/29/2013,128,UCF,7,38,Away
8,Alabama,8/31/2013,742,Virginia Tech,35,10,Neutral Site
9,UAB,8/31/2013,716,Troy,31,34,Away
9,UAB,9/7/2013,365,LSU,17,56,Away
17,Alcorn St.,9/7/2013,430,Mississippi State,7,51,Away
28,Arizona State,9/5/2013,102,Sacramento State,55,0,Home
29,Arizona,9/7/2013,465,UNLV,58,13,Away
29,Arizona,8/30/2013,501,Northern Arizona,35,0,Home
30,Arkansas State,8/31/2013,2678,Arkansas-Pine Bluff,62,11,Home
30,Arkansas State,9/7/2013,37,Auburn,9,38,Away
31,Arkansas,9/7/2013,625,Samford,31,21,Neutral Site
31,Arkansas,8/31/2013,671,Louisiana-Lafayette,34,14,Neutral Site
37,Auburn,8/31/2013,754,Washington State,31,24,Home
37,Auburn,9/7/2013,30,Arkansas State,38,9,Home
43,Austin Peay,9/7/2013,736,Vanderbilt,3,38,Away
43,Austin Peay,8/31/2013,694,Tennessee,0,45,Away
47,Ball State,9/7/2013,725,Army,40,14,Home
47,Ball State,8/29/2013,299,Illinois State,51,28,Home
51,Baylor,9/7/2013,86,Buffalo,70,13,Home
51,Baylor,8/31/2013,2915,Wofford,69,3,Home
66,Boise State,8/31/2013,756,Washington,6,38,Away
66,Boise State,9/7/2013,695,Tennessee-Martin,63,14,Home
67,Boston College,9/6/2013,749,Wake Forest,24,10,Home
67,Boston College,8/31/2013,739,Villanova,24,14,Home
71,Bowling Green,9/7/2013,331,Kent State,41,22,Away
71,Bowling Green,8/29/2013,719,Tulsa,34,7,Home
77,BYU,8/31/2013,746,Virginia,16,19,Away
77,BYU,9/7/2013,703,Texas,40,21,Home
86,Buffalo,9/7/2013,51,Baylor,13,70,Away
86,Buffalo,8/31/2013,518,Ohio State,20,40,Away
90,Cal Poly,9/7/2013,96,Fresno State,25,41,Away
96,Fresno State,8/29/2013,587,Rutgers,52,51,Home
96,Fresno State,9/7/2013,90,Cal Poly,41,25,Home
102,Sacramento State,9/5/2013,28,Arizona State,0,55,Away
102,Sacramento State,8/29/2013,630,San Jose State,0,24,Away
107,California,8/31/2013,509,Northwestern,30,44,Home
107,California,9/7/2013,550,Portland State,37,30,Home
108,UC Davis,9/7/2013,466,Nevada,7,36,Away
110,UCLA,8/31/2013,466,Nevada,58,20,Home
128,UCF,8/29/2013,5,Akron,38,7,Home
128,UCF,9/6/2013,231,Florida International,38,0,Away
129,Central Michigan,8/31/2013,418,Michigan,9,59,Away
129,Central Michigan,9/7/2013,469,New Hampshire,24,21,Home
140,Cincinnati,8/31/2013,559,Purdue,42,7,Home
140,Cincinnati,9/7/2013,301,Illinois,17,45,Away
147,Clemson,9/7/2013,647,South Carolina State,52,13,Home
147,Clemson,8/31/2013,257,Georgia,38,35,Home
153,Colgate,8/31/2013,721,Air Force,13,38,Away
156,Colorado State,9/7/2013,719,Tulsa,27,30,Away
156,Colorado State,9/1/2013,157,Colorado,27,41,Neutral Site
157,Colorado,9/7/2013,1004,Central Arkansas,38,24,Home
157,Colorado,9/1/2013,156,Colorado State,41,27,Neutral Site
164,Connecticut,8/29/2013,711,Towson,18,33,Home
193,Duke,9/7/2013,404,Memphis,28,14,Away
193,Duke,8/31/2013,489,N.C. Central,45,0,Home
196,East Carolina,9/5/2013,229,Florida Atlantic,31,13,Home
196,East Carolina,8/31/2013,523,Old Dominion,52,38,Home
201,Eastern Illinois,8/31/2013,626,San Diego State,40,19,Away
202,Eastern Kentucky,9/7/2013,367,Louisville,7,44,Away
204,Eastern Michigan,8/31/2013,290,Howard,34,24,Home
204,Eastern Michigan,9/7/2013,539,Penn State,7,45,Away
207,Eastern Washington,8/31/2013,528,Oregon State,49,46,Away
229,Florida Atlantic,8/30/2013,415,Miami (Florida),6,34,Away
229,Florida Atlantic,9/5/2013,196,East Carolina,13,31,Away
231,Florida International,8/31/2013,392,Maryland,10,43,Away
231,Florida International,9/6/2013,128,UCF,0,38,Home
234,Florida State,9/2/2013,545,Pittsburgh,41,13,Away
235,Florida,9/7/2013,415,Miami (Florida),16,21,Away
235,Florida,8/31/2013,709,Toledo,24,6,Home
254,Georgia State,9/7/2013,693,Chattanooga,14,42,Home
254,Georgia State,8/30/2013,625,Samford,21,31,Home
255,Georgia Tech,8/31/2013,1068,Elon,70,0,Home
257,Georgia,9/7/2013,648,South Carolina,41,30,Home
257,Georgia,8/31/2013,147,Clemson,35,38,Away
261,Grambling,9/7/2013,498,Louisiana-Monroe,10,48,Away
277,Hawai'i,9/7/2013,528,Oregon State,14,33,Away
277,Hawai'i,8/29/2013,657,USC,13,30,Home
288,Houston,9/7/2013,690,Temple,22,13,Away
288,Houston,8/30/2013,665,Southern University,62,13,Home
290,Howard,8/31/2013,204,Eastern Michigan,24,34,Away
295,Idaho,9/7/2013,811,Wyoming,10,42,Away
295,Idaho,8/31/2013,497,North Texas,6,40,Away
299,Illinois State,8/29/2013,47,Ball State,28,51,Away
301,Illinois,9/7/2013,140,Cincinnati,45,17,Home
301,Illinois,8/31/2013,659,Southern Illinois,42,34,Home
305,Indiana State,9/7/2013,559,Purdue,14,20,Away
305,Indiana State,8/29/2013,306,Indiana,35,73,Away
306,Indiana,9/7/2013,726,Navy,35,41,Home
306,Indiana,8/29/2013,305,Indiana State,73,35,Home
311,Iowa State,8/31/2013,504,Northern Iowa,20,28,Home
312,Iowa,8/31/2013,503,Northern Illinois,27,30,Home
312,Iowa,9/7/2013,669,Missouri State,28,14,Home
314,Jackson State,8/29/2013,718,Tulane,7,34,Away
317,James Madison,9/7/2013,5,Akron,33,35,Away
327,Kansas State,8/30/2013,493,North Dakota State,21,24,Home
327,Kansas State,9/7/2013,671,Louisiana-Lafayette,48,27,Home
328,Kansas,9/7/2013,650,South Dakota,31,14,Home
331,Kent State,9/7/2013,71,Bowling Green,22,41,Home
331,Kent State,8/29/2013,355,Liberty,17,10,Home
334,Kentucky,8/31/2013,772,Western Kentucky,26,35,Neutral Site
334,Kentucky,9/7/2013,414,Miami (Ohio),41,7,Home
346,Lamar,9/7/2013,366,Louisiana Tech,14,27,Away
355,Liberty,8/29/2013,331,Kent State,10,17,Away
365,LSU,8/31/2013,698,TCU,37,27,Neutral Site
365,LSU,9/7/2013,9,UAB,56,17,Home
366,Louisiana Tech,9/7/2013,346,Lamar,27,14,Home
366,Louisiana Tech,8/31/2013,490,North Carolina State,14,40,Away
367,Louisville,9/7/2013,202,Eastern Kentucky,44,7,Home
367,Louisville,9/1/2013,519,Ohio,49,7,Home
380,Maine,9/7/2013,400,Massachusetts,24,14,Away
388,Marshall,8/31/2013,414,Miami (Ohio),52,14,Home
388,Marshall,9/7/2013,1092,Gardner-Webb,55,0,Home
392,Maryland,8/31/2013,231,Florida International,43,10,Home
392,Maryland,9/7/2013,523,Old Dominion,47,10,Home
400,Massachusetts,9/7/2013,380,Maine,14,24,Home
400,Massachusetts,8/31/2013,796,Wisconsin,0,45,Away
402,McNeese State,8/31/2013,651,South Florida,53,21,Away
404,Memphis,9/7/2013,193,Duke,14,28,Home
414,Miami (Ohio),9/7/2013,334,Kentucky,7,41,Away
414,Miami (Ohio),8/31/2013,388,Marshall,14,52,Away
415,Miami (Florida),8/30/2013,229,Florida Atlantic,34,6,Home
415,Miami (Florida),9/7/2013,235,Florida,21,16,Home
416,Michigan State,9/7/2013,651,South Florida,21,6,Home
416,Michigan State,8/30/2013,774,Western Michigan,26,13,Home
418,Michigan,8/31/2013,129,Central Michigan,59,9,Home
418,Michigan,9/7/2013,513,Notre Dame,41,30,Home
419,Middle Tennessee,9/7/2013,457,North Carolina,20,40,Away
419,Middle Tennessee,8/29/2013,769,Western Carolina,45,24,Home
428,Minnesota,9/7/2013,472,New Mexico State,44,21,Away
428,Minnesota,8/29/2013,465,UNLV,51,23,Home
430,Mississippi State,8/31/2013,521,Oklahoma State,3,21,Neutral Site
430,Mississippi State,9/7/2013,17,Alcorn St.,51,7,Home
433,Mississippi,8/29/2013,736,Vanderbilt,39,35,Away
433,Mississippi,9/7/2013,654,Southeast Missouri State,31,13,Home
434,Missouri,8/31/2013,454,Murray State,58,14,Home
434,Missouri,9/7/2013,709,Toledo,38,23,Home
440,Montana State,9/7/2013,663,SMU,30,31,Away
446,Morgan State,8/30/2013,725,Army,12,28,Away
454,Murray State,8/31/2013,434,Missouri,14,58,Away
457,North Carolina,9/7/2013,419,Middle Tennessee,40,20,Home
457,North Carolina,8/29/2013,648,South Carolina,10,27,Away
463,Nebraska,8/31/2013,811,Wyoming,37,34,Home
463,Nebraska,9/7/2013,664,Southern Mississippi,56,13,Home
465,UNLV,9/7/2013,29,Arizona,13,58,Home
465,UNLV,8/29/2013,428,Minnesota,23,51,Away
466,Nevada,8/31/2013,110,UCLA,20,58,Away
466,Nevada,9/7/2013,108,UC Davis,36,7,Home
469,New Hampshire,9/7/2013,129,Central Michigan,21,24,Away
472,New Mexico State,9/7/2013,428,Minnesota,21,44,Home
472,New Mexico State,8/31/2013,703,Texas,7,56,Away
473,New Mexico,9/7/2013,704,UTEP,42,35,Away
473,New Mexico,8/31/2013,706,UTSA,13,21,Home
483,Nicholls State,8/31/2013,529,Oregon,3,66,Away
483,Nicholls State,9/7/2013,774,Western Michigan,27,23,Away
485,Norfolk State,9/7/2013,587,Rutgers,0,38,Away
489,N.C. Central,8/31/2013,193,Duke,0,45,Away
490,North Carolina State,9/7/2013,575,Richmond,23,21,Home
490,North Carolina State,8/31/2013,366,Louisiana Tech,40,14,Home
493,North Dakota State,8/30/2013,327,Kansas State,24,21,Away
497,North Texas,8/31/2013,295,Idaho,40,6,Home
497,North Texas,9/7/2013,519,Ohio,21,27,Away
498,Louisiana-Monroe,9/7/2013,261,Grambling,48,10,Home
498,Louisiana-Monroe,8/31/2013,522,Oklahoma,0,34,Away
501,Northern Arizona,8/30/2013,29,Arizona,0,35,Away
503,Northern Illinois,8/31/2013,312,Iowa,30,27,Away
504,Northern Iowa,8/31/2013,311,Iowa State,28,20,Away
509,Northwestern,8/31/2013,107,California,44,30,Away
509,Northwestern,9/7/2013,688,Syracuse,48,27,Home
513,Notre Dame,8/31/2013,690,Temple,28,6,Home
513,Notre Dame,9/7/2013,418,Michigan,30,41,Away
518,Ohio State,9/7/2013,626,San Diego State,42,7,Home
518,Ohio State,8/31/2013,86,Buffalo,40,20,Home
519,Ohio,9/7/2013,497,North Texas,27,21,Home
519,Ohio,9/1/2013,367,Louisville,7,49,Away
521,Oklahoma State,8/31/2013,430,Mississippi State,21,3,Neutral Site
521,Oklahoma State,9/7/2013,706,UTSA,56,35,Away
522,Oklahoma,8/31/2013,498,Louisiana-Monroe,34,0,Home
522,Oklahoma,9/7/2013,768,West Virginia,16,7,Home
523,Old Dominion,8/31/2013,196,East Carolina,38,52,Away
523,Old Dominion,9/7/2013,392,Maryland,10,47,Away
528,Oregon State,8/31/2013,207,Eastern Washington,46,49,Home
528,Oregon State,9/7/2013,277,Hawai'i,33,14,Home
529,Oregon,8/31/2013,483,Nicholls State,66,3,Home
529,Oregon,9/7/2013,746,Virginia,59,10,Away
539,Penn State,9/7/2013,204,Eastern Michigan,45,7,Home
539,Penn State,8/31/2013,688,Syracuse,23,17,Neutral Site
545,Pittsburgh,9/2/2013,234,Florida State,13,41,Home
550,Portland State,9/7/2013,107,California,30,37,Away
553,Prairie View A&M,9/7/2013,670,Texas State,3,28,Away
559,Purdue,9/7/2013,305,Indiana State,20,14,Home
559,Purdue,8/31/2013,140,Cincinnati,7,42,Away
574,Rice,8/31/2013,697,Texas A&M,31,52,Away
575,Richmond,9/7/2013,490,North Carolina State,21,23,Away
587,Rutgers,8/29/2013,96,Fresno State,51,52,Away
587,Rutgers,9/7/2013,485,Norfolk State,38,0,Home
624,Sam Houston State,9/7/2013,697,Texas A&M,28,65,Away
625,Samford,9/7/2013,31,Arkansas,21,31,Neutral Site
625,Samford,8/30/2013,254,Georgia State,31,21,Away
626,San Diego State,8/31/2013,201,Eastern Illinois,19,40,Home
626,San Diego State,9/7/2013,518,Ohio State,7,42,Away
630,San Jose State,9/7/2013,674,Stanford,13,34,Away
630,San Jose State,8/29/2013,102,Sacramento State,24,0,Home
632,Savannah State,9/7/2013,716,Troy,3,66,Away
646,South Alabama,9/7/2013,718,Tulane,41,39,Away
646,South Alabama,8/29/2013,667,Southern Utah,21,22,Home
647,South Carolina State,9/7/2013,147,Clemson,13,52,Away
648,South Carolina,9/7/2013,257,Georgia,30,41,Away
648,South Carolina,8/29/2013,457,North Carolina,27,10,Home
650,South Dakota,9/7/2013,328,Kansas,14,31,Away
651,South Florida,9/7/2013,416,Michigan State,6,21,Away
651,South Florida,8/31/2013,402,McNeese State,21,53,Home
654,Southeast Missouri State,9/7/2013,433,Mississippi,13,31,Away
655,Southeastern Louisiana,9/7/2013,698,TCU,17,38,Away
657,USC,9/7/2013,754,Washington State,7,10,Home
657,USC,8/29/2013,277,Hawai'i,30,13,Away
659,Southern Illinois,8/31/2013,301,Illinois,34,42,Away
663,SMU,8/30/2013,700,Texas Tech,23,41,Home
663,SMU,9/7/2013,440,Montana State,31,30,Home
664,Southern Mississippi,8/31/2013,670,Texas State,15,22,Home
664,Southern Mississippi,9/7/2013,463,Nebraska,13,56,Away
665,Southern University,8/30/2013,288,Houston,13,62,Away
667,Southern Utah,8/29/2013,646,South Alabama,22,21,Away
669,Missouri State,9/7/2013,312,Iowa,14,28,Away
670,Texas State,8/31/2013,664,Southern Mississippi,22,15,Away
670,Texas State,9/7/2013,553,Prairie View A&M,28,3,Home
671,Louisiana-Lafayette,8/31/2013,31,Arkansas,14,34,Neutral Site
671,Louisiana-Lafayette,9/7/2013,327,Kansas State,27,48,Away
674,Stanford,9/7/2013,630,San Jose State,34,13,Home
676,Stephen F. Austin,9/7/2013,700,Texas Tech,13,61,Away
688,Syracuse,9/7/2013,509,Northwestern,27,48,Away
688,Syracuse,8/31/2013,539,Penn State,17,23,Neutral Site
690,Temple,9/7/2013,288,Houston,13,22,Home
690,Temple,8/31/2013,513,Notre Dame,6,28,Away
692,Tennessee Tech,9/7/2013,796,Wisconsin,0,48,Away
693,Chattanooga,9/7/2013,254,Georgia State,42,14,Away
694,Tennessee,8/31/2013,43,Austin Peay,45,0,Home
694,Tennessee,9/7/2013,772,Western Kentucky,52,20,Home
695,Tennessee-Martin,9/7/2013,66,Boise State,14,63,Away
697,Texas A&M,8/31/2013,574,Rice,52,31,Home
697,Texas A&M,9/7/2013,624,Sam Houston State,65,28,Home
698,TCU,8/31/2013,365,LSU,27,37,Neutral Site
698,TCU,9/7/2013,655,Southeastern Louisiana,38,17,Home
700,Texas Tech,8/30/2013,663,SMU,41,23,Away
700,Texas Tech,9/7/2013,676,Stephen F. Austin,61,13,Home
703,Texas,9/7/2013,77,BYU,21,40,Away
703,Texas,8/31/2013,472,New Mexico State,56,7,Home
704,UTEP,9/7/2013,473,New Mexico,35,42,Home
706,UTSA,9/7/2013,521,Oklahoma State,35,56,Home
706,UTSA,8/31/2013,473,New Mexico,21,13,Away
709,Toledo,8/31/2013,235,Florida,6,24,Away
709,Toledo,9/7/2013,434,Missouri,23,38,Away
711,Towson,8/29/2013,164,Connecticut,33,18,Away
716,Troy,9/7/2013,632,Savannah State,66,3,Home
716,Troy,8/31/2013,9,UAB,34,31,Home
718,Tulane,9/7/2013,646,South Alabama,39,41,Home
718,Tulane,8/29/2013,314,Jackson State,34,7,Home
719,Tulsa,9/7/2013,156,Colorado State,30,27,Home
719,Tulsa,8/29/2013,71,Bowling Green,7,34,Away
721,Air Force,9/7/2013,731,Utah State,20,52,Home
721,Air Force,8/31/2013,153,Colgate,38,13,Home
725,Army,8/30/2013,446,Morgan State,28,12,Home
725,Army,9/7/2013,47,Ball State,14,40,Away
726,Navy,9/7/2013,306,Indiana,41,35,Away
731,Utah State,9/7/2013,721,Air Force,52,20,Away
731,Utah State,8/29/2013,732,Utah,26,30,Away
732,Utah,9/7/2013,758,Weber State,70,7,Home
732,Utah,8/29/2013,731,Utah State,30,26,Home
736,Vanderbilt,9/7/2013,43,Austin Peay,38,3,Home
736,Vanderbilt,8/29/2013,433,Mississippi,35,39,Home
739,Villanova,8/31/2013,67,Boston College,14,24,Away
742,Virginia Tech,8/31/2013,8,Alabama,10,35,Neutral Site
742,Virginia Tech,9/7/2013,769,Western Carolina,45,3,Home
746,Virginia,8/31/2013,77,BYU,19,16,Home
746,Virginia,9/7/2013,529,Oregon,10,59,Home
749,Wake Forest,9/6/2013,67,Boston College,10,24,Away
749,Wake Forest,8/29/2013,1320,Presbyterian,31,7,Home
754,Washington State,9/7/2013,657,USC,10,7,Away
754,Washington State,8/31/2013,37,Auburn,24,31,Away
756,Washington,8/31/2013,66,Boise State,38,6,Home
758,Weber State,9/7/2013,732,Utah,7,70,Away
768,West Virginia,8/31/2013,786,William & Mary,24,17,Home
768,West Virginia,9/7/2013,522,Oklahoma,7,16,Away
769,Western Carolina,8/29/2013,419,Middle Tennessee,24,45,Away
769,Western Carolina,9/7/2013,742,Virginia Tech,3,45,Away
772,Western Kentucky,8/31/2013,334,Kentucky,35,26,Neutral Site
772,Western Kentucky,9/7/2013,694,Tennessee,20,52,Away
774,Western Michigan,9/7/2013,483,Nicholls State,23,27,Home
774,Western Michigan,8/30/2013,416,Michigan State,13,26,Away
786,William & Mary,8/31/2013,768,West Virginia,17,24,Away
796,Wisconsin,8/31/2013,400,Massachusetts,45,0,Home
796,Wisconsin,9/7/2013,692,Tennessee Tech,48,0,Home
811,Wyoming,9/7/2013,295,Idaho,42,10,Home
811,Wyoming,8/31/2013,463,Nebraska,34,37,Away
1004,Central Arkansas,9/7/2013,157,Colorado,24,38,Away
1068,Elon,8/31/2013,255,Georgia Tech,0,70,Away
1092,Gardner-Webb,9/7/2013,388,Marshall,0,55,Away
1320,Presbyterian,8/29/2013,749,Wake Forest,7,31,Away
2678,Arkansas-Pine Bluff,8/31/2013,30,Arkansas State,11,62,Away
2915,Wofford,8/31/2013,51,Baylor,3,69,Away

Korranus
Jan 8, 2001



Turns out my week 2 poll is even trippy than my last -

1. Washington
2. North Dakota State
3. Alabama
4. Oklahoma
5. Florida State
6. Oregon
7. Towson
8. Arizona
9. Southern Utah
10. Michigan
11. Miami (FL)
12. Nicholls State
13. Louisville
14. Baylor
15. UCF
16. Bowling Green
17. LSU
18. Eastern Washington
19. Stanford
20. Duke
21. Utah
22. Texas Tech
23. Penn State
24. Maryland
25. UCLA

Bottom 10 -
10. Miami (OH)
9. Idaho
8. Southern Miss
7. Iowa State
6. UConn
5. San Diego St
4. South Florida
3. UMass
2. Western Michigan
1. Georgia State

Conferences -
1. Big 10
2. Pac 12
3. SEC
4. Big 12
5. ACC
6. AAC
7. Sun Belt
8. MWC
9. CUSA
10. MAC

Ice To Meet You
Mar 4, 2007



Captain von Trapp posted:

cfbstats.com just updated their stats file through this weekend, so here's my parsing of it. As pointed out, it's not quite identical to DIVISIONB.CSV yet because it lists all games including FBS/FCS games twice. Apologies for the wall of text - next week I'll find a host.

Just use pastebin or something. And thanks for doing this - I might work on my poll this year after all.

Tad SG
Apr 16, 2003

Here are provided seats of meditative joy, where shall rise again the destined reign of Troy.


Tad SG's Week 2 Top 25 - not nearly as crazy as it looked week 1! And with Navy in the top 5, that's saying something...

code:
1.      Oklahoma State  
2.      Oregon  
3.      Florida State   
4.      Auburn  
5.      Navy    
6.      Alabama 
7.      Minnesota       
8.      Texas Tech      
9.      Central Florida 
10.     Northwestern    
11.     Bowling Green State     
12.     Louisiana State 
13.     Louisville      
14.     UCLA    
15.     Tennessee       
16.     Northern Illinois       
17.     Washington      
18.     Maryland        
19.     Penn State      
20.     Oklahoma        
21.     Michigan        
22.     Ohio State      
23.     East Carolina   
24.     Stanford        
25.     Nebraska

Mukaikubo
Mar 14, 2006

"You treat her like a lady... and she'll always bring you home."


Okay! After much heartache and screaming at scripts that should have been a lot simpler than they were to make, I am back online! First I will repost the explanation of the maths that I posted last year when I came up with it, and then the first results!

Mukai's ELO-Modified Moon Poll

Overview: This moon poll is an attempt to use the Elo method of team ranking, popularized by chess, and apply it to college football while also including margin of victory. No stats other than scores, date, and location are used.

Every team starts with 1 (one) point as their ranking. Yes, Akron and Alabama start in the same place, because I wanted to remove subjectivity as much as I could. For each match, the "expected win"% is calculated with a formula that takes into account both rankings. It'll spit out 50% if both teams are equally rated. The expected win percentage for Team A playing Team B:

1/(1+10^( (rating_team_B - rating_team_a)/0.4 ) )

If both are equal, it's always 50%. If team A is 0.2 points better than team B, they'll have if you do the math a 76% of beating them; 0.4 points better, 91%, and so on. Given that, as a special case, non-Division 1A teams are set at an effective rating of 0.6 points no matter who they are; this means that in week 1, I expect 91% of teams to beat their 1-AA opponents. Note that this is symmetric- if team A has a 76% chance of beating team B, team B has a 24% chance of beating team A, just like you'd expect.

So! I have how much I expect teams to win. The games are played, and sometimes I'm kinda right! But I have to for every match update the stats based on who won what. Using the data presented at http://football.stassen.com/pointspread/ I have a correlation between how often a team favored by X points by Vegas wins. I make the leap that A, Vegas is usually if not the smartest than very near the smartest picker in aggregate, and thus get things about right; I also make the slightly bigger leap that a team that actually wins by X points would win Y% of the time, if teams favored by X points historically win Y% of the time. If you don't trust that leap, you can probably just ignore this moon poll, but it actually works decently well. I take the actual point spread (and correct it for location, using what seems to be a standard 4 point advantage for home teams; I'm equivalently putting everything on a 'neutral field' in hindsight) and determine "actual win%" for the game. Edge case; any margin over 30 points is set to 99%, because I don't believe in no-win scenarios.

That's a bit wordy, so I'll go through the math with an example from last season.

Coming into Week 3's home game against Arkansas, Alabama's rating is 1.171; they've won both games commandingly. Arkansas's rating, right off the home loss to Louisiana-Monroe, is 1.003; the loss almost canceled their handy win over a 1-AA team. The difference between the two teams' ratings is 0.168; Alabama then, by the formula, is expected to win 72.4% of the time, which correlates to a point margin of just a shade under 9 points on a neutral field. Since Alabama's at home, they're "expected" to beat Arkansas by just under two touchdowns. Playing the game, Alabama actually wins by 52, which is a horrifying number. That's greater than 30, so I declare that Alabama would have won 99% of the time that game was replayed. So, I have an expected win% of 72.4% and an actual win% of 99%...

Okay. Once we have that, the next step is to update ratings. It's pretty easy; after a whole lot of trials, I settled on
New Rating = Old Rating + 0.2 * (Actual Win% - Expected Win%) for both teams, with the caveat that "you can never lose points by winning or gain points by losing".

So, in our example above, for Alabama
New Rating = 1.171 + 0.2 * (0.99-0.724) = 1.224 (gain of 0.053 points)

and for Arkansas,
New Rating = 1.003 + 0.2 * (0.724-0.99) = 0.950 (loss of 0.053 points)



And now without further ado:

Mukai Moon Poll Week 3: "No, Seriously, UCF" Edition

Well, this is awkward. My first new moon poll, and I have:
-UCF #6
-Georgia Tech #8
-Alabama #10 (to be fair, there's a bias towards teams that have played more)

Well, we'll go with it, it'll sort itself out soon enough. Until then, moon polls will enjoy their traditional bouts of utter madness. At least a sane team's at the top and at the bottom, right?

pre:
Rank	Team		Rating
1	'Oregon'	1.308
2	'Louisville'	1.239
3	'LSU'		1.227
4	'Oklahoma St.'	1.214
5	'Oklahoma'	1.213
6	'UCF'		1.209
7	'Arizona'	1.198
8	'Georgia Tech'	1.197
9	'Florida St.'	1.187
10	'Alabama'	1.182
11	'Auburn'	1.177
12	'Michigan'	1.171
13	'UCLA'		1.170
14	'Indiana'	1.160
15	'Northwestern'	1.160
16	'Ohio St.'	1.154
17	'Washington'	1.152
18	'Southern Cal'	1.134
19	'Maryland'	1.130
20	'Navy'		1.130
21	'Minnesota'	1.125
22	'Stanford'	1.125
23	'Texas Tech'	1.122
24	'Ole Miss'	1.122
25	'Penn St.'	1.117

26	'Utah St.'	1.117
27	'Washington St'	1.111
28	'Wisconsin'	1.100
29	'Baylor'	1.093
30	'Wyoming'	1.086
31	'Marshall'	1.085
32	'North Texas'	1.078
33	'Michigan St.'	1.072
34	'Texas A&M'	1.065
35	'BYU'		1.063
36	'Missouri'	1.062
37	'Arizona St.'	1.055
38	'Houston'	1.055
39	'Rutgers'	1.052
40	'Ball St.'	1.052
41	'Tennessee'	1.051
42	'Texas St.'	1.050
43	'Notre Dame'	1.049
44	'Arkansas'	1.046
45	'Miami (FL)'	1.043
46	'South Caro'	1.042
47	'Illinois'	1.041
48	'Ohio'		1.038
49	'Virginia Tech'	1.009
50	'Georgia'	1.008
51	'Northern Ill.'	1.008
52	'Pittsburgh'	1.004
53	'Oregon St.'	1.003
54	'Boise St.'	0.999
55	'Kansas St.'	0.984
56	'North Caro.'	0.981
57	'Nebraska'	0.981
58	'Kentucky'	0.979
59	'Utah'		0.976
60	'Bowling Green'	0.973
61	'Duke'		0.973
62	'Arkansas St.'	0.969
63	'Clemson'	0.968
64	'Mississipi St'	0.964
65	'Colorado'	0.957
66	'Tulane'	0.955
67	'Cincinnati'	0.954
68	'Florida'	0.951
69	'Vanderbilt'	0.951
70	'Troy'		0.950
71	'UTEP'		0.948
72	'Rice'		0.947
73	'TCU'		0.941
74	'La.-Monroe'	0.941
75	'South Ala.'	0.940
76	'Syracuse'	0.937
77	'East Carolina'	0.936
78	'Fresno St.'	0.934
79	'West Virginia'	0.933
80	'North Car St.'	0.931
81	'Iowa'		0.925
82	'Virginia'	0.913
83	'UTSA'		0.901
84	'Boston College	0.894
85	'Kansas'	0.889
86	'UAB'		0.885
87	'Western Ky.'	0.879
88	'Texas'		0.876
89	'Memphis'	0.871
90	'UTSA'		0.869
91	'San Jose St.'	0.864
92	'Wake Forest'	0.855
93	'New Mexico'	0.855
94	'Fla. Atlantic'	0.851
95	'Middle Tenn.'	0.849
96	'Colorado St.'	0.849
97	'Nevada'	0.844
98	'La.-Lafayette'	0.837
99	'Toledo'	0.826
100	'UNLV'		0.825
101	'Army'		0.820
102	'Tulsa'		0.807
103	'California'	0.794
104	'Eastern Mich.'	0.788
105	'Louisiana Tech	0.776
106	'Air Force'	0.775
107	'Kent St.'	0.774
108	'Hawaii'	0.774
109	'Southern Miss.	0.766
110	'Purdue'	0.755
111	'Akron'		0.747
112	'Idaho'		0.747
113	'SMU'		0.746
114	'Western Mich.'	0.735
115	'Miami (OH)'	0.729
116	'Iowa St.'	0.729
117	'Buffalo'	0.718
118	'Central Mich.'	0.716
119	'Temple'	0.712
120	'Connecticut'	0.705
121	'New Mexico St'	0.676
122	'San Diego St.'	0.641
123	'Massachusetts'	0.598
124	'South Fla.'	0.579
125	'FIU'		0.565
126	'Georgia State'	0.475

Captain von Trapp
Jan 22, 2006

I don't like it, and I'm sorry I ever had anything to do with it.

Here's my quasi-clone of the old DIVISIONB.CSV file, this time in convenient Pastebin format: http://pastebin.com/A3SqYttG

Unfortunately I've been swamped so I haven't yet implemented the non-duplication of the FBS vs FCS games. With some luck I'll have that soon. When that happens I'll probably post both versions just in case someone's poll relies on this current format of mine. As usual, please everybody keep an eye out for machine readable FCS data. We still don't have a good source for that.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Korranus
Jan 8, 2001



Poll's looking better this week, the only real glaring Bad Thing is Alabama dropped to 19 after the track meet.
pre:
Rank	LW	
1	6	Oregon
2	2	North Dakota State
3	5	Florida State
4	22	Texas Tech
5	4	Oklahoma
6	1	Washington
7	13	Louisville
8	11	Miami (FL)
9	33	Georgia Tech
10	25	UCLA
11	35	Oklahoma State
12	30	Arizona State
13	7	Towson 
14	14	Baylor
15	8	Arizona
16	17	LSU
17	15	UCF
18	24	Maryland
19	3	Alabama
20	37	Michigan State
21	10	Michigan
22	27	Ohio State
23	49	Arkansas
24	54	Ole Miss
25	34	Northern Iowa

Bottom 10 -

10. Florida International
9. San Diego State
8. New Mexico State
7. Temple
6. Connecticut
5. Iowa State
4. Massachusetts
3. Western Michigan
2. South Florida
1. Georgia State

Conferences - 

1. Pac 12
2. Big 10
3. SEC
4. ACC
5. Big 12
6. American
7. Sun Belt
8. MWC
9. CUSA
10. MAC
Complete poll at http://pastebin.com/dDCgfZz2

Korranus fucked around with this message at Sep 17, 2013 around 15:49

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