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Gravy Train Robber
Sep 15, 2007

by zen death robot

Mr. Peepers posted:

Here's something I'm in the process of throwing together:

Deck: Dimir Grind

This looks incredibly entertaining, but it doesn't appear to actually do anything at all until turn 4. Some of the aggro decks we've seen can probably kill you before you land any of the pieces you need to start drowning/wallowing in card advantage. You're all-in on Heroic, but need some way to interact with your opponent in the opening turns. Discard (like thoughtseize/duress), counters, something, even a body like Returned Phalanx, would work.

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jassi007
Aug 9, 2006

mmmmm.. burger...

Mr. Peepers posted:

12 creatures 24 spells that target them.

Your ratio is bad. Your odds are your going to draw a lot of spells that don't have targets. Go look at Bant hexproof lists. They typically ran like 18-24 creatures and 16-18 spells to interact with them. They would use charms, which can help your guys, but they can also do other things for you as well.

Peepers
Mar 11, 2005

Well, I'm a ghost. I scare people. It's all very important, I assure you.


jassi007 posted:

Your ratio is bad. Your odds are your going to draw a lot of spells that don't have targets. Go look at Bant hexproof lists. They typically ran like 18-24 creatures and 16-18 spells to interact with them. They would use charms, which can help your guys, but they can also do other things for you as well.

Gravy Train Robber posted:

This looks incredibly entertaining, but it doesn't appear to actually do anything at all until turn 4. Some of the aggro decks we've seen can probably kill you before you land any of the pieces you need to start drowning/wallowing in card advantage. You're all-in on Heroic, but need some way to interact with your opponent in the opening turns. Discard (like thoughtseize/duress), counters, something, even a body like Returned Phalanx, would work.

I've considered Omenspeaker as a partial solution to both issues here: 1/3 for 2, and lets me dig for threats. I could see dropping 3 or so of the weaker spells for her.

The reason my spell/creature number is skewed the way it is is because without heroic triggers most of my spells are OK at best, and there's only so many heroic guys in UB. Tormented Hero has a pretty meh heroic effect (and ETB tapped, so doesn't help much against aggro). Artisan of Forms feels too tricky even for this deck. Wavecrash Triton is playable, though unfortunately counts as another 3-drop.

I realize the best solution to "too many of my spells are just OK, and I don't have enough good creatures" is obviously to drop the bad spells for good creatures, but I'd really like to try this all-in strategy first.

Elephant Ambush
Nov 13, 2012

...We sholde spenden more time together. What sayest thou?
Nap Ghost
Omenspeaker owns.

Ownmenspeaker.

Zoness
Jul 24, 2011

Talk to the hand.
Grimey Drawer

Elephant Ambush posted:

Omenspeaker owns.

Ownmenspeaker.

In what context is Omenspeaker good? Because I saw a good zero copies in the 300 cards of the 4 control decks in top 8 of the SCG open. Max Tietz played Yoked Ox instead, which pretty much just reinforces how bad Omenspeaker is. Literally the only deck that would consider playing Omenspeaker ran Yoked Ox instead.

Like, it's not an Augur of Bolas because it doesn't actually net you a card, it can't team up with a Restoration Angel to kill a 4-toughness attacker or a Snapcaster Mage to kill a 3-toughness attacker, and U/x creature-based strategies don't want a 1/3 because frostburn weird is basically an upgrade in the devotion and versatility department. Contrast it to Magma Jet, where the part of the card that isn't scry 2 is actually useful.

Balon
May 23, 2010

...my greatest work yet.
Omenspeaker is pretty cool in combo or synergy-heavy decks. The body and Scry 2 are great for digging for specific cards while also holding off aggro decks.

In control? It's not fast or big enough to matter.

AnacondaHL
Feb 15, 2009

I'm the lead trumpet player, playing loud and high is all I know how to do.

Selesnya Experiment #3: Given a format with exactly 12 Savannah Lions per deck, Watchwolfs, and Loxodon Smiters, and Selesnya Charms, the optimal deck is:

12 Savannah Lion
9 Watchwolf
5 Loxodon Smiter
10 Selesnya Charm
24 Land

Avg Turn Kill: 4.95


Wow, a Constructed Standard playable deck! With the new Boon Satyr offering tons of play as a 4 power 3 drop with flash, Experiment One doing a Savannah Lion with upside impression, and, well okay 10 Selesnya Charms might be an issue, but at least this looks very similar to what my initial Theros Standard Gw deck looked like.


So now we have to add more inputs to the code. I incorporated my code into the code from Frank's Deck #8 (fixing one bug I found - his code forgot to allow Good Lightning Bolt to be drawn!), including my new mulligan procedure (mulling 1-landers), which means the results changed:

Frank's Deck #8 adjusted:

1 -> 2 Mons’s Goblin Raiders
10 -> 8 Grizzly Bear
1 -> 0 Gnarled Mass
6 -> 8 Shock
4 Savannah Lions
4 Putrid Leech
4 Geist of Saint Traft
4 Lightning Bolt
26 City of Brass

Average kill-turn: 5.221 -> 4.97


Now that looks like an old-school Sligh deck! 4x Jackal Pup, 4x Mogg Fanatic, other dopey creatures and burn burn burn. Another run output 2 less Bears and less land for 3 more shocks.

Anyways, now that we have 6 unique creature slots and 2 unique burn slots, the world is our oyster. The first question for us Selesnya mages has to be: what about 4 drops? (i.e. Advent of the Wurm) And what about Voice of Resurgence, which we have to play?


Selesnya Experiment #4: Given a format with Mons’s Goblin Raiders, up to 12 Savannah Lions per deck, required 4 Voice of Resurgence, Watchwolfs, Loxodon Smiters, Advent of the Wurms, and Selesnya Charms (Lightning Bolt disabled), the optimal deck is:

0 Mons’s Goblin Raiders
12 Savannah Lion
4 Voice of Resurgence
16 Watchwolf
0 Loxodon Smiter
0 Advent of the Wurm
4 Selesnya Charm
24 Land

Avg Turn Kill: 5.09

CANCELLED



At this point the simulations are starting to take a very long time, and I'm going to need to add a maximum loop counter. This experiment had to be cancelled because the solution didn't converge. I'm hoping, hoping that there's no saddle-point optimization that's going on here, but either way I'm going to have to improve the loop logic before continuing, as each additional variable increases the complexity significantly.

Zoness
Jul 24, 2011

Talk to the hand.
Grimey Drawer
I don't think Frank uses the most efficient approach to simulation (speaking in mostly abstract terms). I'm planning on doing some work on it between raid times.

Someone should start a github project for this :3:.

Hopefully that AI class I took will come in handy!

Zoness fucked around with this message at 23:02 on Oct 1, 2013

BXCX
Feb 17, 2012

not even in a bad way

Madmarker posted:

So I've been playing modern merfolk for a bit, I'm running the same list that was on free side of Starcity a while ago. Anyway I can pilot the deck fairly well but I'm having a good bit of trouble with the boggle matchup, they load up a hexproof dude and my only real out is to either echoing truth the enchantment or cast hibernation. Anyway I'm at a loss as to a good sideboard card/cards for the matchup, anyway, here's what I"m running. Originally I had 3 snapcaster's in the Cosi tirckster spot but it was fairly underwhelming, and cosi's trickster grows incredible quickly. So what I'm trying to figure out is what, if anything I should do to the board to improve my boggle matchup.

Should I just run Spellskite, and if so, any idea on what to cut?

Creatures (26)

3 Coralhelm Commander
3 Cosi's Trickster
4 Cursecatcher
4 Lord of Atlantis
4 Master of the Pearl Trident
4 Merrow Reejerey
4 Silvergill Adept
Lands (20)

17 Island
3 Mutavault
Spells (14)

4 Aether Vial
4 Deprive
2 Spell Pierce
4 Vapor Snag
Sideboard

3 Relic of Progenitus
2 Tidebinder Mage
4 Spreading Seas
2 Echoing Truth
2 Hibernation
2 Spell Pierce

I've been playing Merfolk for a few months now, but I am not A Good Magic Player, so take my advice with a grain of salt. I've also never played against a Bogle deck IRL, so double those grains.

Spellskite is absolutely maindeckable for a lot of reasons, mainly because you can drop it with a 2 counter Vial and it is good against a ton of different matchups and saves your lords from all kinds of stuff. For Bogle, you get to steal all of their auras when they cast them and maindecking lets you do that game one. It also steals Splinter Twin, soaks up damage from Scapeshift, and eats up spot removal/burn.

For comparison's sake, here's my current list:

Deck: Modern Merdorks

//Main
14 Island
2 Cavern of Souls
4 Mutavault
4 Silvergill Adept
3 Phantasmal Image
4 Merrow Reejerey
4 Master of the Pearl Trident
4 Lord of Atlantis
4 Cosi's Trickster
2 Spellskite
4 Vapor Snag
4 Æther Vial
4 Spreading Seas
3 Delay

//Sideboard
3 Hurkyl's Recall
1 Spellskite
2 Spell Pierce
2 Relic of Progenitus
2 Threads of Disloyalty
1 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner
2 Spell Snare
2 Dismember

Display deck statistics

Main deck comments:

In terms of what to cut, I've never been happy with Coralhelm Commander, he's a good for late game play, but honestly if it's gone to late game you're probably not doing all that well. Also, I'd say look at your meta and pick either Cursecatcher or Cosi's Trickster and run them as a 4 of. They're both miserable topdecks without lord support, so ideally you want to play them early. Trickster is my favorite in theory because it punishes greedy manabases, but in practice Cursecastcher has worked out much better because it forces the opponent to play around a free counterspell in the early game, especially if you have a Vial ticked up to 1.

Outside of affording it, there's no reason not to run the fourth Mutavault, they're great for mitigating the deck's weakness to boardwipes and you won't miss the 17th Island that much.

How have you liked Deprive? I run Delay as the budget Remand replacement and I've been reasonably happy with it since I'd like to have finished up the game three turns later anyway. I've also seen Unified Will as the Remand Replacement, but it seems too conditional to be of much use. Remand is much better than either of those just for the tempo and card draw, but I can't justify dropping $60+ for an uncommon.

I've actually been pretty impressed by Phantasmal Image, even though it's usually my go to cut when it's time to sideboard. Sure it lost a little bit with the new legend rule, but the sacrifice when targeted effect is rarely a drawback since anything that targets it would probably kill it anyways and it draws a lot of heat off your other lords.

There's a lot of variance in terms of how many Spreading Seas people play mainboard, but 4 of main has been an all star for me. Pooping on Greedy manabases, turning on islandwalk, and drawing a card for 1U is pretty insane and on the off chance your opponents are only running Islands they at least cycle in game one. I've won a lot of games on the back of turn 2 and 3 Spreading Seas, oops you're color screwed and the level of sadness that comes if I happen to play three or 4 in a game fills my heart with warmth.

I'm not sure how I feel about Cavern of Souls as a 2 of. A local (much better) Merfolk player likes them a lot, although I've never had much problem with my guys getting countered. I used to run 4 Tectonic Edge to prey on greedy manabases instead of the Caverns, but found I was hitting a lot more color screw with 4 but with 2 I wasn't seeing them enough.

Sideboard Comments:
I don't know how much good Hibernation is actually doing for you, but it seems relatively narrow unless you're facing a lot of decks that are heavy green, and I think by adding 3/4 Spellskites to your 75 would let you cut it completely.

I run 3 Hurkyl's Recall because I've found the deck to be suuuper soft to Affinity and enough people play it locally where I can expect to play it regularly. In a vacuum I would probably only run 2 though.

I was unhappy with Tidebinder Mage's performance, so I replaced them with 2 Threads of Disloyalty. It takes a lot of the stuff in RG that I don't want to deal with like Goyf, Lavamancer, and Vexing Devil just like Mage, but with the added benefit of also taking Dark Confidant, Steel Overseer, a Cranial Plating'd Affinity guy, etc.

Dismember has been relatively good, sometimes things need to get killed right away.

Kira has been great, although there's also a lot of Burn decks that I play against regularly so it might be more of a meta call. I used to play two until I went up to 3 Hurkyl's Recall, although I'm deciding if I want to drop Spell Snare or Spell Pierce for another Kira and another Relic.


AgentSythe posted:

Hello Eternal friend.

In Modern, sometimes you just have to deal with a matchup being lovely. This is probably one of those times. Hibernation is probably...OK. Spellskite, as you've already said, is probably the best you can do. When do you find yourself bringing in the Hibernates? If it's for the Jund and G/B matchups, are perhaps the Tidebinder Mages good enough and you can fit some skites there? I

It's true that Merfolk does have a few lovely matchups, it's definitely a Tier 1.5ish deck.

newtestleper
Oct 30, 2003
I don't really play standard, just slowly trying to build up a modern deck at the moment, so i thought I'd try to throw something together that's super budget and a bit silly for standard FNM.

I thought a devotion/reanimator strategy might be fun, though it seems to suffer horribly from a lack of discard.

The plan is to use packrats as a discard outlet, build up a bit of midrangey devotion, then return grey merchants/abhorrent overlords for the win.

I understand this is pretty garbage tier, just looking for other budget options to make it better. I have a couple of B/W or B/U shocklands and guildgates for fixing if there's something worth splashing.

Must be budget.

Dungeon Ecology
Feb 9, 2011

You can also consider Lotleth Troll if you're looking for more discard outlets. But you're right: Pack Rat is probably the best for what you need because it feeds your devotion to black much better than the troll.

e: Green also opens you up to Commune with the Gods -- it's not a precise as Pack Rat, but if you need to dump the right card quickly, it can work. Just spitballin'.

Dungeon Ecology fucked around with this message at 02:00 on Oct 2, 2013

BXCX
Feb 17, 2012

not even in a bad way
I'm putting together a mono green deck for standard so I have something to take to game day and to play pickup games with people who don't bring modern decks with them. I've been looking at two different lists:






The decks are very similar, the biggest difference is that the first deck has more ramp (can't decide between Sage and Caryatid) and the second runs Deadbridge Goliath and Scooze mainboard. The second deck seems like it has better late game but the first deck has worked much better in practice. Is this a reasonable deck? Also, sideboard options are appreciated.

Gravy Train Robber
Sep 15, 2007

by zen death robot
I just saw that there is going to be a Standard Pauper event at the GP I'm going to in 2 weeks, and was wondering if anybody knew of anywhere that actually talked about building Standard Pauper. I'm really not even sure where to begin, other than perhaps building some sort of Extort brew.

Bugsy
Jul 15, 2004

I'm thumpin'. That's
why they call me
'Thumper'.


Slippery Tilde

Gravy Train Robber posted:

I just saw that there is going to be a Standard Pauper event at the GP I'm going to in 2 weeks, and was wondering if anybody knew of anywhere that actually talked about building Standard Pauper. I'm really not even sure where to begin, other than perhaps building some sort of Extort brew.

PDCMagic has a section for standard pauper, but with Theros not being online till Friday it doesn't look like they have had much talk about it yet.

Extort with grey merchant as a finisher seems like a decent plan though.

Anil Dikshit
Apr 11, 2007
OK, I'm thinking about throwing Owen Turtenwald's Mono Red Aggro together for a few FNMs, until I can find something that will be more suited for the meta that will shake down in my store, but I can't get quite everything locally, and am not sure I can justify another 70 bucks to complete a deck I don't plan to use for more than a month or two. The strikethroughs are ones that I'm currently short on. The cards I have are at http://www.deckbox.org/sets/302914

30 28 Creatures
4 Burning-Tree Emissary
4 Chandra's Phoenix
4 2 Firedrinker Satyr
4 Firefist Striker
4 Foundry Street Denizen
2 Goblin Shortcutter
4 Gore-House Chainwalker
4 Rakdos Cackler

8 Spells
4 Lightning Strike
4 Shock

22 19 Lands
18 Mountain
4 1 Mutavault

15 14 Sideboard Cards
3 2 Boros Reckoner
1 Skullcrack
2 Hammer of Purphoros
1 Act of Treason
3 Flames of the Firebrand
2 Mizzium Mortars
3 Peak Eruption

Anil Dikshit fucked around with this message at 05:52 on Oct 2, 2013

AnacondaHL
Feb 15, 2009

I'm the lead trumpet player, playing loud and high is all I know how to do.

AnacondaHL posted:

Selesnya Experiment #4: Given a format with Mons’s Goblin Raiders, up to 12 Savannah Lions per deck, required 4 Voice of Resurgence, Watchwolfs, Loxodon Smiters, Advent of the Wurms, and Selesnya Charms (Lightning Bolt disabled), the optimal deck is:

0 Mons’s Goblin Raiders
12 Savannah Lion
4 Voice of Resurgence
16 Watchwolf
0 Loxodon Smiter
0 Advent of the Wurm
4 Selesnya Charm
24 Land

Avg Turn Kill: 5.09

CANCELLED



At this point the simulations are starting to take a very long time, and I'm going to need to add a maximum loop counter. This experiment had to be cancelled because the solution didn't converge. I'm hoping, hoping that there's no saddle-point optimization that's going on here, but either way I'm going to have to improve the loop logic before continuing, as each additional variable increases the complexity significantly.

Hooray! I've fixed the code, found the bug that wasn't letting the loops stop, and upgraded the mulligan decisions. The new mulligan logic is as follows:

Mull 0 and 1 landers, Mull if you have more lands than 1 less than your total cards in hand (i.e. mull 6+ lands on 7 cards, 5+ lands on 6 cards, 4+ lands on 5 cards), keep 4 card hands. This last part is key, because I think Frank's code would sometimes keep mulling and mulling down to 1 card.


Selesnya Experiment #4 redux: Given a format with Mons’s Goblin Raiders, up to 12 Savannah Lions per deck, required 4 Voice of Resurgence, Watchwolfs, Loxodon Smiters, Advent of the Wurms, and required 4 Selesnya Charms (Lightning Bolt disabled), the optimal deck is:

0 Mons’s Goblin Raiders
12 Savannah Lion
4 Voice of Resurgence
9 Watchwolf
6 Loxodon Smiter
0 Advent of the Wurm
4 Selesnya Charm
25 Land

Avg Turn Kill: 5.037


That is one fine looking Selesnya deck. Before moving onto other strategies and formats, I'd like to look at the card Battlewise Valor. It's another 2 mana "shock", with way less utility than Selesnya Charm. By allowing the Charm to be between 4 and 8, we can see what effect the additional utility spell does to the speed of the deck.


Selesnya Experiment #5: Experiment #4, but with 4-8 Selesnya Charms, the optimal deck is:

0 Mons’s Goblin Raiders
12 Savannah Lion
4 Voice of Resurgence
11 Watchwolf
4 Loxodon Smiter
0 Advent of the Wurm
5 Selesnya Charm
24 Land

Avg Turn Kill: 5.037


So it looks like there's still room for utility and speed.

...Okay one more, because we gotta cast dat instant speed fatty wurm.


Selesnya Experiment #6: Given a format with Mons’s Goblin Raiders, up to 12 Savannah Lions per deck, required 4 Voice of Resurgence, Watchwolfs, Loxodon Smiters, required 4 Advent of the Wurms, and required 4 Selesnya Charms (Lightning Bolt disabled), the optimal deck is:

12 Savannah Lion
4 Voice of Resurgence
10 Watchwolf
2 Loxodon Smiter
4 Advent of the Wurm
4 Selesnya Charm
24 Land

Avg Turn Kill: 5.081


At this point I could start simulating Doom Blades, Supreme Verdicts, or increase the life total of the opponent, but there's something I have to take care of before adding that next layer of complexity: analyzing Mono Red Blitz in standard.

SoftNum
Mar 31, 2011

Here's a GW aggro deck I've been tuning. Standard format, made to play the next two weeks at regional and SCG level events.

Deck: Theros GW aggro - w/o 2013 09 30

//Mans
4 Experiment One
4 Soldier of the Pantheon
4 Voice of Resurgence
4 Fleecemane Lion
4 Imposing Sovereign
3 Loxodon Smiter
3 Boon Satyr

//Not Mans
3 Advent of the Wurm
2 Spear of Heliod
2 Ajani, Caller of the Pride
3 Rootborn Defenses

//Lands
3 Selesnya Guildgate
4 Temple Garden
2 Mutavault
6 Forest
9 Plains

//Sideboard
3 Selesnya Charm
3 Banisher Priest
2 Celestial Flare
3 Sundering Growth
3 Glare of Heresy
1 Spear of Heliod

Display deck statistics

It's a bit 'pre sideboarded' against UW(x) control, as I expect to face that deck a lot.

Sideboarding plan:
UX(x) Control:
+3 Sundering Growth, +3 Glare of Heresy; -4 Imposing Sovereign, -X Boon Satyr, -X Spear of Heliod

Red-Based Aggro (Without Anger):
+3 Selesnya Charm, +1 Spear of Heliod; -3 Rootborn Defenses, -1 Ajani, Caller of the pride

GBX Midrange (Jund & BWR) and Naya/GR Stompy:
+3 Selesnya Charm, +2 Celestial Flare +3 Banisher Priest; -2 Ajani, Caller of the Pride, -6 FROM (Loxodon Smiter, Rootborn Defenses, Advent of the Wurm, Ajani)


Thoughts about card choices:
0 Elvish Mystics: This deck doesn't really ramp into anything, and so it's dead most of the time. Also it's a huge removal trap. If I want 1 drops, there's still dryad militant to put in.

Ajani & Spear: I want some things that survive sweepers to minimize the tempo hit from them. With Ajani on the board, any of my 3-4 drops are a huge threat, and spear still can take out an attacker every turn.

0 Brave the Elements: I just don't think it does enough, and it controls deckbuilding too much. The boon satyr and experiment one are really good in this list.

Celestial Flare: Awesome against stompy / midrange decks, especially Stormbreath. Also gets around the usual mana dork problem with edict effects (Most people won't attack to play around it.).

My sideboard is still quite rough, and I'm wondering if there's still holes in it. I've been eyeing plummet instead of celestial flare, but flare seems a but more universal.

Any thoughts or obvious things I've missed I should be looking at?

Gravy Train Robber
Sep 15, 2007

by zen death robot

Bugsy posted:

PDCMagic has a section for standard pauper, but with Theros not being online till Friday it doesn't look like they have had much talk about it yet.

Extort with grey merchant as a finisher seems like a decent plan though.

Yeah, thats about as far as I've thought ahead, either monoblack or B/W Extort with some devotion enablers like Deathcult Rogue for bringing down a Gray Merchant at the end, with a bunch of cheap control/removal/discard stuff. I'd actually like to brew up two decks, so that a friend who is just starting Magic and going with me can play in a (relatively) casual event. Was considering a heroic based deck, but a lot of the good white weenie stuff is uncommon in Theros.

Eikre
May 2, 2009
Hmm, mono-black in pauper. A challenge, since you're looking at half the cards. I've been thinking about monoblack recently, though, so here's a rough attempt:


4 Shadow Alley Denizen/Sinister Possession (depending on if you're facing an opponent with black or not)
4 Contaminated Ground/Basilica Screecher (ditto)
4 Rakdos Shred-Freak
4 Sewer Shambler
4 Deathcult Rogue
4 Gray Merchant of Asphodel

4 Duress
4 Pharika's Cure
4 Read the Bones
4 Grisly Spectacle (assuming M14's uncommon Doom Blade is the authoritative version)


20 Swamps

There isn't enough extort to make a deck, so I'm trying to assemble some little-poo poo evasive creatures and some pings to whittle them down instead. Possibly to limited success. I wish I knew the pauper power-level a bit better. Control might be a better fit, here.

I wonder how well an Act of Treason/Portent of Betrayal fueled sac engine would do?

Death of Rats
Oct 2, 2005

SQUEAK

AnacondaHL posted:

Simulated goldfish.

I just wanted to say that I'm really liking these posts, and that they are really interesting (although I work in statistical modelling, so I might be biased). Is the code available anywhere? I'd be keen to have a look at it.

Zoness
Jul 24, 2011

Talk to the hand.
Grimey Drawer

Eikre posted:

Hmm, mono-black in pauper. A challenge, since you're looking at half the cards. I've been thinking about monoblack recently, though, so here's a rough attempt:


4 Shadow Alley Denizen/Sinister Possession (depending on if you're facing an opponent with black or not)
4 Contaminated Ground/Basilica Screecher (ditto)
4 Rakdos Shred-Freak
4 Sewer Shambler
4 Deathcult Rogue
4 Gray Merchant of Asphodel

4 Duress
4 Pharika's Cure
4 Read the Bones
4 Grisly Spectacle (assuming M14's uncommon Doom Blade is the authoritative version)


20 Swamps

There isn't enough extort to make a deck, so I'm trying to assemble some little-poo poo evasive creatures and some pings to whittle them down instead. Possibly to limited success. I wish I knew the pauper power-level a bit better. Control might be a better fit, here.

I wonder how well an Act of Treason/Portent of Betrayal fueled sac engine would do?

I believe the list given here just loses to the fast decks of the format - i.e. Elves, RG, or Affinity.

Generally Mono-B decks use Crypt Rats and go control because Crypt Rats is like one of the best board wipes available.

Gravy Train Robber
Sep 15, 2007

by zen death robot

Zoness posted:

I believe the list given here just loses to the fast decks of the format - i.e. Elves, RG, or Affinity.

Generally Mono-B decks use Crypt Rats and go control because Crypt Rats is like one of the best board wipes available.

It's Standard Pauper. Yeah, I had never considered it before either. But its an event that seems fairly casual, and there are prizes at the GP for it, so I'm working on building something. Could be interesting, but I'm still sorting through whats actually legal to find playable cards. I'll post my W/B Extort deck up a bit later. The big problem I'm having is that I have zero idea what standard pauper would even look like at all.

Gravy Train Robber
Sep 15, 2007

by zen death robot
Here is my extremely rough attempt at B/W Extort in Standard Pauper. White actually seems to have better/cheaper removal than black, so I feel alright about splashing for it and the Tithe Drinkers.

Deck: Extort Standard Pauper

//Lands
4 Orzhov Guildgate
6 Plains
12 Swamp

//Creatures
3 Baleful Eidolon
4 Tithe Drinker
4 Basilica Screecher
3 Cavern Lampad
3 Deathcult Rogue
3 Disciple of Phenax
4 Gray Merchant of Asphodel

//Instants and Sorceries
3 Divine Verdict
3 Pharika's Cure
3 Devour Flesh
3 Read the Bones
2 Duress

Display deck statistics

AnacondaHL
Feb 15, 2009

I'm the lead trumpet player, playing loud and high is all I know how to do.

Death of Rats posted:

I just wanted to say that I'm really liking these posts, and that they are really interesting (although I work in statistical modelling, so I might be biased). Is the code available anywhere? I'd be keen to have a look at it.

Thanks!

I'll post finalized code maybe later tonight, but the relevant codebases are Frank's Deck #8 (Big Format) and my changes to the Turn Kill routine (link here, but for the 5 card format code). Everything else is just aesthetic changes and range changes (such as keeping 1 land hands or not, or forcing 4-8 Lightning Bolt instead of 0-60, etc.).

Another idea I had was to report the number of Turn 4 kills, and/or Turn 7+ kills, as a percentage or count, similar to what Frank does in the very first result of his first article. Since these numbers are more meaningful to people than skew and kurtosis, they should give us an idea of when things go right and wrong.

Another idea was to simulate the effect of mana elves! And another idea .... you can see why Frank's 2nd article contained 10 decks going in different directions: the flood gates of possibility just burst open given the opportunity, and the hardest part of my investigation into these has been to take things one step at a time. You can even see my biggest backtrack during the Selesnya experiments, but I promise there were more behind the scenes.

Death of Rats
Oct 2, 2005

SQUEAK

Gravy Train Robber posted:

I just saw that there is going to be a Standard Pauper event at the GP I'm going to in 2 weeks, and was wondering if anybody knew of anywhere that actually talked about building Standard Pauper. I'm really not even sure where to begin, other than perhaps building some sort of Extort brew.

As far as standard pauper goes, I can only imagine it's going to follow closely to new set standard, and that the biggest theme is going to be Agro decks. I'd put money on at least one mono-red or Rg Bloodrush deck coming up (and that's the way I'd probably go with the challenge). There will also be a slivers deck. Though if you're keen on extortion, if you can prevent attackers hitting you, extort as much as possible, and take a good 5-6 life from your opponent using Gray Merchant, you might just get away with it.


Gravy Train Robber posted:

Here is my extremely rough attempt at B/W Extort in Standard Pauper. White actually seems to have better/cheaper removal than black, so I feel alright about splashing for it and the Tithe Drinkers.

Deck: Extort Standard Pauper

I'd considered writing a decklist for this - though it was similar to yours in the end. I'd try pacifism as a 2CMC removal (in place of Pharika's Cure or Divine Verdict); it's not as good as straight removal, but it'll stop a threat swinging in - it's a very poor imitation of journey to nowhere, but it'll do in the format.

Kingpin's pet isn't bad either (I'd play it in place of Cavern Lampad); since you're going to be aiming to play one spell/turn before tapping out to extort, CMCs above 3 are hard to justify (except for the merchant). And extra extort triggers are always useful in case one gets blown up.

Zoness
Jul 24, 2011

Talk to the hand.
Grimey Drawer

Gravy Train Robber posted:

It's Standard Pauper. Yeah, I had never considered it before either. But its an event that seems fairly casual, and there are prizes at the GP for it, so I'm working on building something. Could be interesting, but I'm still sorting through whats actually legal to find playable cards. I'll post my W/B Extort deck up a bit later. The big problem I'm having is that I have zero idea what standard pauper would even look like at all.

OOPS :blush:. I miss ghostly flicker for standard pauper :smith:.

That said - does standard pauper require that the card be common as printed in standard or just have been printed as a common at some point? (Doom Blade, Mnemonic Wall)
Okay yeah, common in standard.

Also I think Auramancer could be neat in B/W decks to recur Quag Sicknesses and enchantment creatures

Zoness fucked around with this message at 17:28 on Oct 2, 2013

Mikujin
May 25, 2010

(also a lightning rod)

Yoked Ox and/or Returned Phalanx would both be pretty solid to help stymie aggro, alongside the pharika's cures you're already running.

Gravy Train Robber
Sep 15, 2007

by zen death robot
I had Kingpin's Pet originally, but I was also thinking some ways to give evasion/deathtouch might be handy, so I cut them for the Bestow creatures. I saw them do a lot of work at the prerelease, and want an excuse to use the sparkly bordered cards. You're right that I probably want to just cut the Lampads for Kingpins. I'm on the fence about the Baleful Eidolons- when I put together the list I mistakenly was thinking they were CMC 1 like the Hopeful Eidolon.

I hadn't considered Pacifism, thanks for bringing that up. It does bum me out that we didn't get a reprint of Pillory of the Sleepless, but instead a more expensive one in Gatecrash.

Zoness posted:

OOPS :blush:. I miss ghostly flicker for standard pauper :smith:.

That said - does standard pauper require that the card be common as printed in standard or just have been printed as a common at some point? (Doom Blade, Mnemonic Wall)

Also I think Auramancer could be neat in B/W decks to recur Quag Sicknesses and enchantment creatures

I am pretty sure it's only the version of the card thats currently in standard that counts, so no Doom Blade sadly. I like the Auramancer idea though, and I'm wondering if Stab Wound wouldn't be pretty handy to have around too as enchantment/removal.

I've still got about two weeks to come up with two decks for a friend and I to play, so I'll see if I can come up with something better soon.

Durette
Feb 6, 2012

I've been pretty successful with U/B control at drafts and wanted to make a Standard deck (mostly because I'm cheap and had most of the money cards in here):
Deck: Theros Dimir Control

//Main
8 Island
7 Swamp
4 Temple of Deceit
4 Watery Grave
3 Syncopate
2 Viper's Kiss
3 Devour Flesh
3 Doom Blade
3 Thrill-Kill Assassin
3 Warped Physique
3 Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver
3 Hero's Downfall
2 Psychic Strike
3 Wall of Frost
2 Returned Centaur
3 Jace, Memory Adept
4 Traumatize

//Sideboard
4 Aqueous Form
3 Agent of the Fates
2 Bident of Thassa
3 Supreme Verdict
3 Ætherling

Display deck statistics


Main protection for the Planeswalkers is removal, which I'm a little nervous about.

I'd like to get a couple more small drop creatures in there, but U/B are a little short on them right now. Went with Thrill-Kill over Baleful Eidolon since it's a 1/2 and I just don't see using Bestow.

Viper's Kiss has turned out to be surprisingly effective for me, I went with that for the mana cost + removal (Experiment One, Legion Loyalist) + activated abilities stopping.

Sideboard has some heavier hitters and adds Scry/Draw combo to speed things up if needed.

Thoughts? Suggestions?

Zoness
Jul 24, 2011

Talk to the hand.
Grimey Drawer

Durette posted:

Thoughts? Suggestions?

I'd contend that Jace IV is a lot better than Jace III, especially against aggro. Also, I'd say Dissolve over Psychic Strike and Aetherlings main. However, if you're expecting to fight a lot of control then Jace III makes more sense.

Also it should be noted that since Underworld Cerberus exists (even if it isn't in a deck yet) milling can be really bad for a control deck that at best 1-for-1's opposing creatures.

Zoness fucked around with this message at 20:07 on Oct 2, 2013

Mikujin
May 25, 2010

(also a lightning rod)

Returned Phalax is easily to go-to UB early chumper. 3/3 body means it will trade with a bunch of stuff, and if you're keeping to board clean you can opt to pay 1U to start swinging in for 3 a turn. Get rid of Viper's Kiss; it might be ok in draft but it's an absolutely dead card in standard, since it's only good against X/1 creatures. The only creature the denial of activated abilities will matter on already dodges it, anyways.

Similarly, Traumatize is not something you should play. It doesn't actually do anything for you, since you have no other graveyard manipulation. Ashiok is a win condition, but if your control suite is strong enough you won't need him to mill things out but instead can just bring back big beaters and swing. Warped Physique is another one of those situational removal cards that's probably just better off being something that is straight up "kill a dude."

Verdict in your sideboard does nothing with no white sources, so uh, you may want to get rid of that. AEtherling should probably be at least a 2-of main deck, since he's an absolutely amazing control finisher. Your other side board options are pretty weak: Agent of Fates doesn't actually do anything in your deck unless you're also boarding in the enchantments with him, and Bident is just not a standard playable card in a time when other four-drops in color could be stuff like Verdict. Returned Centaurs also aren't going to help you as much as they would in limited, because you're not chipping at a 40 card library, but a 60 card one.

Durette
Feb 6, 2012

Zoness posted:

I'd contend that Jace IV is a lot better than Jace III, especially against aggro. Also, I'd say Dissolve over Psychic Strike and Aetherlings main. However, if you're expecting to fight a lot of control then Jace III makes more sense.

In general, I'd agree. My problem with Jace IV is that it's so slow next to Ashiok. She (he? it?) could theoretically do about the same thing Jace IV does the second turn she's on the board. Spamming the +0 on Jace III will (hopefully) draw some targeting and keep things moving along. If I'm up against Control, I'd put him out there first to burn some Dreadbore/Hero's Downfall before playing Ashiok.

Also for my meta, almost everyone has gotten away from milling Esper Control and steered towards Monstrous, so hopefully I can catch some folks napping.

Mikujin posted:

Returned Phalax is easily to go-to UB early chumper. 3/3 body means it will trade with a bunch of stuff, and if you're keeping to board clean you can opt to pay 1U to start swinging in for 3 a turn.

Absolutely right. I'll swap out the Centaurs for this.


quote:

Get rid of Viper's Kiss; it might be ok in draft but it's an absolutely dead card in standard, since it's only good against X/1 creatures. The only creature the denial of activated abilities will matter on already dodges it, anyways.

I think I might hang on to it in the sideboard as a Meta thing. Still lots of Experiment Ones and Boros seeing play and it's a pretty cheap for when you don't want to waste a spell that could kill something larger like Doom Blade or Warped Physique.

quote:

Similarly, Traumatize is not something you should play. It doesn't actually do anything for you, since you have no other graveyard manipulation.

With Unburial Rights, the Zombies, and Undying critters going away, I think there's a little more wiggle room with putting things in graveyards. Most of the Theros "return from graveyard" put it in hand, not the battlefield which buys a little time.

Maybe run Crypt Incursion if I'm dumb enough to keep Traumatize?


quote:

Ashiok is a win condition, but if your control suite is strong enough you won't need him to mill things out but instead can just bring back big beaters and swing. Warped Physique is another one of those situational removal cards that's probably just better off being something that is straight up "kill a dude."

Right with you on Warped Physique.

Once again, this is from Limited, but Ashiok is also freaking amazing at slowing an opponent down by watching the land fly by. By T3 when she pops out, if an opponent was lucky and has 5 land in hand or on the board, it really hurts to see the cards you need to pull off T5/T6 type things. I love that.

quote:

Verdict in your sideboard does nothing with no white sources, so uh, you may want to get rid of that.

D'oh! Supposed to be Cyclonic Rift.

quote:

AEtherling should probably be at least a 2-of main deck, since he's an absolutely amazing control finisher. Your other side board options are pretty weak: Agent of Fates doesn't actually do anything in your deck unless you're also boarding in the enchantments with him, and Bident is just not a standard playable card in a time when other four-drops in color could be stuff like Verdict. Returned Centaurs also aren't going to help you as much as they would in limited, because you're not chipping at a 40 card library, but a 60 card one.

I had Agent of Fates in there more for his Deathtouch/to protect Planeswalkers; any suggestions on something that could accomplish the same?

Intent on Bident was to speed up my draw (lovely Think Twice replacement). Any suggestions there?

Zoness
Jul 24, 2011

Talk to the hand.
Grimey Drawer

Durette posted:


Once again, this is from Limited, but Ashiok is also freaking amazing at slowing an opponent down by watching the land fly by. By T3 when she pops out, if an opponent was lucky and has 5 land in hand or on the board, it really hurts to see the cards you need to pull off T5/T6 type things. I love that.


This is not a thing. Milling lands doesn't keep an opponent from drawing them. Milling a one-off Aetherling keeps an opponent off their Aetherling, yes, but lands, not so much, no.

Durette
Feb 6, 2012

Zoness posted:

This is not a thing. Milling lands doesn't keep an opponent from drawing them. Milling a one-off Aetherling keeps an opponent off their Aetherling, yes, but lands, not so much, no.

Not arguing, just saying...

Exiling a one-off shockland or Temple is also going to hurt. If they're running three colors, it's going to hurt. It helps put them in a position where they're essentially on the draw for a couple turns. I don't think it's a strategy, but every bit helps because I'm a horrible player.

inSTAALed
Feb 3, 2008

MOP

n'

SLOP
Add Duskmantle Guildmages. Activate their first ability twice, then use Jace, Memory Adept's 0 ability.

Win game.

Guaranteed to work every time. Not even a little bit gimmicky.

GottaPayDaTrollToll
Dec 3, 2009

by Lowtax

TenjouUtena posted:

Here's a GW aggro deck I've been tuning. Standard format, made to play the next two weeks at regional and SCG level events.

Deck: Theros GW aggro - w/o 2013 09 30

//Mans
4 Experiment One
4 Soldier of the Pantheon
4 Voice of Resurgence
4 Fleecemane Lion
4 Imposing Sovereign
3 Loxodon Smiter
3 Boon Satyr

//Not Mans
3 Advent of the Wurm
2 Spear of Heliod
2 Ajani, Caller of the Pride
3 Rootborn Defenses

//Lands
3 Selesnya Guildgate
4 Temple Garden
2 Mutavault
6 Forest
9 Plains

//Sideboard
3 Selesnya Charm
3 Banisher Priest
2 Celestial Flare
3 Sundering Growth
3 Glare of Heresy
1 Spear of Heliod

Display deck statistics

It's a bit 'pre sideboarded' against UW(x) control, as I expect to face that deck a lot.

Sideboarding plan:
UX(x) Control:
+3 Sundering Growth, +3 Glare of Heresy; -4 Imposing Sovereign, -X Boon Satyr, -X Spear of Heliod

Red-Based Aggro (Without Anger):
+3 Selesnya Charm, +1 Spear of Heliod; -3 Rootborn Defenses, -1 Ajani, Caller of the pride

GBX Midrange (Jund & BWR) and Naya/GR Stompy:
+3 Selesnya Charm, +2 Celestial Flare +3 Banisher Priest; -2 Ajani, Caller of the Pride, -6 FROM (Loxodon Smiter, Rootborn Defenses, Advent of the Wurm, Ajani)


Thoughts about card choices:
0 Elvish Mystics: This deck doesn't really ramp into anything, and so it's dead most of the time. Also it's a huge removal trap. If I want 1 drops, there's still dryad militant to put in.

Ajani & Spear: I want some things that survive sweepers to minimize the tempo hit from them. With Ajani on the board, any of my 3-4 drops are a huge threat, and spear still can take out an attacker every turn.

0 Brave the Elements: I just don't think it does enough, and it controls deckbuilding too much. The boon satyr and experiment one are really good in this list.

Celestial Flare: Awesome against stompy / midrange decks, especially Stormbreath. Also gets around the usual mana dork problem with edict effects (Most people won't attack to play around it.).

My sideboard is still quite rough, and I'm wondering if there's still holes in it. I've been eyeing plummet instead of celestial flare, but flare seems a but more universal.

Any thoughts or obvious things I've missed I should be looking at?

Now that I've gotten a few matches in with a substantially similar list (main differences are Scavenging Ooze over Imposing Sovereign and Selesnya Charm in the main over Rootborn defenses), a few thoughts:

- I'm not a huge fan of Imposing Sovereign; I'd rather deal with haste guys and blockers by just having bigger dudes rather than by tapping them down.

- I like having a couple Scavenging Oozes - it's yet another big guy, and it randomly puts you out of burn range and hoses Whip.

- How is it working out leaving Selesnya Charms in the board? I feel like I'd be boarding them in for Rootborn Defenses almost every time. Flashing in a dude or pumping something out of Anger range does a decent job mitigating the effects of sweepers as it is, and exiling their big blocker or giving trample modes is often enough to just kill them when they don't sweep.

- I've been running a split of Advent and Polukranos in the 4-slot. Firing off Monstrify for one or two is relevant more often than one might expect.

- Fiendslayer Paladin has been doing work for me out of the board vs. RDW. Since their whole deck has two toughness and their burn spells don't hit him, he can put up a pretty good roadblock, and if they send a bunch of guys (say, to get him out of the way with Firefist Striker) you'll probably get to hit them and gain 2.

Mikujin
May 25, 2010

(also a lightning rod)

Durette posted:

In general, I'd agree. My problem with Jace IV is that it's so slow next to Ashiok. She (he? it?) could theoretically do about the same thing Jace IV does the second turn she's on the board. Spamming the +0 on Jace III will (hopefully) draw some targeting and keep things moving along. If I'm up against Control, I'd put him out there first to burn some Dreadbore/Hero's Downfall before playing Ashiok.
Ashiok is something you just want to play and roll with, don't worry about baiting out some sort of kill spell with another Planeswalker - especially since your list already runs three of the 'walkers.

quote:

Also for my meta, almost everyone has gotten away from milling Esper Control and steered towards Monstrous, so hopefully I can catch some folks napping.
Accounting for you meta is a good thing, but Memory Adept is only better than Architect in control match-ups. Since your goal is locking down the board with removal to make room for your own bombs, run Architect. Worst case scenario he can dig into your deck to get more removal/answers.


quote:

I think I might hang on to it in the sideboard as a Meta thing. Still lots of Experiment Ones and Boros seeing play and it's a pretty cheap for when you don't want to waste a spell that could kill something larger like Doom Blade or Warped Physique.
I guess I could see it as a 2-of in a sideboard if your meta is dripping with X1s and other weenie decks - but having said that, I still think Dimir Charm is better in your board than it. Gives you some flexibility, which is always important, and if you end up bringing it main it has the added benefit of being able to set up your draws (or theirs).

quote:

With Unburial Rights, the Zombies, and Undying critters going away, I think there's a little more wiggle room with putting things in graveyards. Most of the Theros "return from graveyard" put it in hand, not the battlefield which buys a little time.

Maybe run Crypt Incursion if I'm dumb enough to keep Traumatize?
What I meant was that there's no reason for you to be Traumatizing anyone, ever. At 5CMC you'd be better dropping your planeswalkers or holding onto instant speed removal. Since you can't benefit from Traumatizing yourself, and the only benefit to Traumatizing them is that Ashiok might deck them if they simply just never draw an answer, then it's a win-more card. Ashiok is already decking them because your mission of locking down the board was successful. The problem becomes drawing Traumatize when you aren't in a win-more scenario - it does absolutely nothing to get you back in the game.

quote:

Once again, this is from Limited, but Ashiok is also freaking amazing at slowing an opponent down by watching the land fly by. By T3 when she pops out, if an opponent was lucky and has 5 land in hand or on the board, it really hurts to see the cards you need to pull off T5/T6 type things. I love that.
You're not playing limited, though, and Ashiok is not going to win you games by exiling lands from the top. He'll help you win by either making your opponent focus attention on him instead of you, and/or by playing your opponent's own bombs with his -X after you've exiled them.

quote:

D'oh! Supposed to be Cyclonic Rift.
That makes more sense.

quote:

I had Agent of Fates in there more for his Deathtouch/to protect Planeswalkers; any suggestions on something that could accomplish the same?
Yea, Phalanxes and the like 14+ removal spells you're going to run. Don't overvalue your planeswalkers, either. They're great, they can win you the game, but you should focus on winning the game by locking out your opponents from their own spells/creatures, and then dropping your own big fat guy.

quote:

Intent on Bident was to speed up my draw (lovely Think Twice replacement). Any suggestions there?
Read the Bones is pretty awesome if you're in black. It's hard to keep it main deck if you're up against aggro, since -2 life can be damning, but Scry 2/Draw 2 is amazingly good in control, since you can tuck bad draws/dig to removal. Either way, don't play Bident. In limited it's a great draw engine/card to break board stalls, but in a standard environment there's just not going to be a break point like that.

kzin602
May 14, 2007




Grimey Drawer

Durette posted:

I've been pretty successful with U/B control at drafts and wanted to make a Standard deck (mostly because I'm cheap and had most of the money cards in here):
Deck: Theros Dimir Control

Thoughts? Suggestions?

I'm really curious about this, I got a couple Aishoks in my booster box and saw this on SCG in a Kibler brew.

Deck: Dimir

//Lands
6 Island
10 Swamp
4 Temple of Deceit
4 Watery Grave

//Spells
4 Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver
2 Doom Blade
3 Far // Away
2 Hero's Downfall
4 Thoughtseize

//Creatures
4 Desecration Demon
4 Lifebane Zombie
2 Nighthowler
3 Thrill-Kill Assassin
4 Tormented Hero
4 Woodlot Crawler

//Sideboard
2 Nightveil Specter
1 Nighthowler
2 Doom Blade
1 Hero's Downfall
3 Negate
4 Pharika's Cure
2 Duress

Display deck statistics


I've filled in the gaps with some orders from TCGplayer but I can already see some possible improvements, but it's possible I'm not understanding some of the synergies... Why would I run Woodlot Crawler over something like Duskmantle Guildmage?

Or Tormented Hero over Rakdos Cackler?

AlternateNu
May 5, 2005

ドーナツダメ!

inSTAALed posted:

Add Duskmantle Guildmages. Activate their first ability twice, then use Jace, Memory Adept's 0 ability.

Win game.

Guaranteed to work every time. Not even a little bit gimmicky.

I normally don't play black, so I never really saw that. That's freakin' hilarious.

Just weenie rush the guy with Rakdos Cacklers, Tormented Heroes, and Cloudfin Raptors until turn 5 Jace, MA. Turn 6 Duskmantle, activate, mill, burn for remainder.

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inSTAALed
Feb 3, 2008

MOP

n'

SLOP

AlternateNu posted:

I normally don't play black, so I never really saw that. That's freakin' hilarious.

Just weenie rush the guy with Rakdos Cacklers, Tormented Heroes, and Cloudfin Raptors until turn 5 Jace, MA. Turn 6 Duskmantle, activate, mill, burn for remainder.

I am currently trying to throw together a deck that abuses that with Consuming Aberration as an alternative win condition. Just counter and kill everything until turn 6 for the kill.

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