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On the "super serum" news, doctors in Liberia will now recieve the treatment as well, and the Spanish doctor who received it has died. http://www.foxnews.com/health/2014/08/12/infected-liberia-doctors-to-receive-experimental-ebola-drug-treatment/ Hopefully this does something to quell the understandable unrest of only white first worlders getting the treatment.
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Aug 12, 2014 13:56
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 1,975 cases, 1,069 deaths as of the 11th.
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Aug 14, 2014 10:12
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In tangentially related news, Nigeria has sacked all 18,000 resident doctors due to an ongoing doctor's strike despite Ebola's arrival, which has now claimed 11 cases and 4 deaths with concern that one of the nurses who treated Sawyer escaped quarantine and may have brought the disease to Enugu, just north of the major oil-producing region of the Niger River delta. Ratings agency Moody's has speculated that any significant spread in Nigeria could result in the evacuation of oil company international staff and the shut down of most local operations, severely impacting the Nigerian (and, implicitly, world) economy.
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Aug 15, 2014 05:58
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The WHO is publicly agreeing with other organisations now that the actual number of Ebola cases is "vastly underestimated". MSF is also saying that its about 6 months before the disease can be brought under control. Although if it does take hold in Nigeria as is now a possibility due to the quarantine failures, then it might be an ongoing issue for at least West Africa for next few years. ukle fucked around with this message at 14:34 on Aug 15, 2014 |
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Aug 15, 2014 14:23
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In a bit of  news, it turns out the two cases of ebola in Benin weren't actually Ebola. They ended up being bad cases of malaria and severe diarrhea, not hemorrhagic fever. So Benin is safe so far!Assuming that Nigeria can get their poo poo together, that is. We're doomed 
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Aug 15, 2014 15:11
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:
Come on, it's not that bad  
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Aug 15, 2014 15:18
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Slaan posted:In a bit of Sub-Saharan Africa: Hooray! It's only malaria!
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Aug 15, 2014 15:50
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And remember that we're very probably undercounting how many cases there are, so this is probably underestimating how fast it will spread
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Aug 15, 2014 16:05
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ComradeCosmobot posted:And remember that we're very probably undercounting how many cases there are, so this is probably underestimating how fast it will spread No, this graph looks a lot like ridiculous extrapolation. The day before yesterday it was 28 degrees Celsius outside, yesterday 26 and today 22 degrees. Using my handy dandy graph I have established that we will reach absolute zero (-273 degrees Celsius) in 8 days. The current conditions in west Africa, namely the the distrust of western clinicians and the traditional handling of sickness and death combined make a fertile breeding ground for human ebola infections. Increased awareness and education will at a minimum greatly reduce the new cases rate in the coming six months. I am curious though about the source of that graph.
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Aug 15, 2014 16:28
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Dunno, I just found it in some thread. But it's clearly just the same thing as the previous graph, just on log scale and with the trend plotted, not using any kind of sophisticated model. I mainly posted it because the already historical data there look scary that way too.
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Aug 15, 2014 17:25
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mobby_6kl posted:Dunno, I just found it in some thread. But it's clearly just the same thing as the previous graph, just on log scale and with the trend plotted, not using any kind of sophisticated model. I mainly posted it because the already historical data there look scary that way too. An exponential model is unrealistic. Even in the worst case, there'll be sigmoid growth with a limit of 7 billion, because at that point everyone has died.
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Aug 15, 2014 18:03
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I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!
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Is there a graph of hospitals reaching capacity/closing over the same time period?
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Aug 15, 2014 19:31
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I read an estimate somewhere that around 3-4 times the number of people are dying of untreated malaria, child birth, diarrheal diseases, etc. than normal in the most impacted regions because of the ebola outbreak. Medical personnel are too scared/resource deprived to work, and people aren't going to hospitals because they are afraid doctors are giving people ebola.Randandal posted:Sub-Saharan Africa: Hooray! It's only malaria! More of a Sub-Saharan Africa: Hooray! They only died of Malaria! Because they didn't survive their diseases. 
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Aug 15, 2014 21:40
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Slaan posted:I read an estimate somewhere that around 3-4 times the number of people are dying of untreated malaria, child birth, diarrheal diseases, etc. than normal in the most impacted regions because of the ebola outbreak. Medical personnel are too scared/resource deprived to work, and people aren't going to hospitals because they are afraid doctors are giving people ebola. Sub-Saharan Africa: Dying of Malaria's not the worst thing here! Although of course I will grant you that some people are avoiding hospitals because they're afraid doctors are actively spreading Ebola, I think the more widespread and understandable fear is that if doctors are (accidentally or negligently) catching Ebola in the hospitals, then anybody going to a hospital in West Africa could accidentally catch Ebola just as easily as you could catch MRSA in a hospital in the Western World - which is a legitimate fear for anybody in the world, I think. Either way, the end result of 3-4 times the usual number of deaths for things normally treated in hospitals is probably a phenomenally higher number of deaths due to the presence of Ebola than the actual Ebola infection was caused. Randandal fucked around with this message at 21:50 on Aug 15, 2014 |
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Aug 15, 2014 21:47
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Newsweek is reporting on 5 suspect cases among immigrants in Albania and 1 in Montenegro. It's very improbable that the 5 actually have Ebola (they came from Eritrea which is on the opposite side of the continent so it's unclear how they would have caught it), but the Montenegrin case is slightly more probable as the individual in question came from an infected country. It is worth remembering, however, that all of the suspect cases observed outside of Africa so far have been negative. EDIT: Including a recent suspected case of a Sierra Leonan detainee in Britain. ComradeCosmobot fucked around with this message at 03:13 on Aug 16, 2014 |
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Aug 16, 2014 03:05
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IAMNOTADOCTOR posted:No, this graph looks a lot like ridiculous extrapolation. The day before yesterday it was 28 degrees Celsius outside, yesterday 26 and today 22 degrees. Using my handy dandy graph I have established that we will reach absolute zero (-273 degrees Celsius) in 8 days. As a pandemic spreads social institutions break down and get worse, they don't become suddenly more effective. Distrust, faith in folk medicine, stupid rumours, will only spread with the disease.
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Aug 16, 2014 03:28
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Randandal posted:Sub-Saharan Africa: Dying of Malaria's not the worst thing here! Right, spread of Ebola through health care workers and people escaped from/not yet in quarantine is a legitimate reason not to want to have care in a hospital. But the reason some people think doctors are spreading ebola directly is because they see that very often when they bring a sick person to the hospital, they don't come back out until they are dead. Between not knowing the cause-effect of the situation (the sick person died because they had ebola, not because they entered the hospital) and rampant rumor mongering & snake oil, some towns actually are afraid of western medicine now.
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Aug 16, 2014 08:30
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Slaan posted:Right, spread of Ebola through health care workers and people escaped from/not yet in quarantine is a legitimate reason not to want to have care in a hospital. But the reason some people think doctors are spreading ebola directly is because they see that very often when they bring a sick person to the hospital, they don't come back out until they are dead. Between not knowing the cause-effect of the situation (the sick person died because they had ebola, not because they entered the hospital) and rampant rumor mongering & snake oil, some towns actually are afraid of western medicine now. We should just tell them that our doctors are actually powerful magicians and that we will curse them if they do not follow some simple health rules. As evidence for these claims, we can cite the Harry Potter series of documentary films.
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Aug 16, 2014 08:39
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Very good discussion on the outbreak from some experts, basically slamming the way the world has treated this and looking at what can be done to try and limit it. Includes video of the discussion and the full transcript. http://www.democracynow.org/2014/8/15/as_who_warns_ebola_death_toll
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Aug 16, 2014 09:44
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on the left posted:We should just tell them that our doctors are actually powerful magicians and that we will curse them if they do not follow some simple health rules. As evidence for these claims, we can cite the Harry Potter series of documentary films. There really isn't a difference between this and trying to explain western medicine to an illiterate subsistence farmer
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Aug 16, 2014 09:54
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:There really isn't a difference between this and trying to explain western medicine to an illiterate subsistence farmer Well, it's that old Clarke saying about sufficiently developed tech being indistinguishable from magic. Honestly, how many people around you can explain how an MRI image is created? Or the helium superconducting magnets that are needed to create an MRI machine? If Ebola becomes a pandemic and people who know how to make this stuff die out, we're hosed.
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Aug 16, 2014 10:19
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meristem posted:Well, it's that old Clarke saying about sufficiently developed tech being indistinguishable from magic. Honestly, how many people around you can explain how an MRI image is created? Or the helium superconducting magnets that are needed to create an MRI machine? I'd be more worried about a flu pandemic. Aside from the tragedy unfolding in a region who's medical infrastructure is badly underdeveloped, Ebola's only scary on a theoretical, "It could happen to you!"-level. More developed medical systems would be able to isolate and quarantine an Ebola outbreak pretty quickly.
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Aug 17, 2014 00:27
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Really?quote:MONROVIA, Liberia - Armed men attacked an Ebola clinic in Monrovia, local witnesses told Agence France Presse. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/report-armed-men-attack-liberia-ebola-clinic-freeing-patients/
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Aug 17, 2014 14:39
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Randandal posted:then anybody going to a hospital in West Africa could accidentally catch Ebola just as easily as you could catch MRSA in a hospital in the Western World - which is a legitimate fear for anybody in the world, I think. It's not though - the only people in hospitals really at risk for catching Ebola are healthcare workers. The risk of person to person spread is very low unless you're dealing with an infected persons bodily fluids. The problem is that the healthcare systems are so bad that there isn't enough PPE for the doctors to stay safe.
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Aug 17, 2014 15:04
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Johnny Cache Hit posted:It's not though - the only people in hospitals really at risk for catching Ebola are healthcare workers. And the people who loot bloody ebola bedding.
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Aug 17, 2014 17:48
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benito posted:Really? This is the stupidest loving thing I have ever heard.
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Aug 17, 2014 17:55
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I readily admit I know very little about Sub-Saharan Africa but all the ignorant and deeply unwise behaviour of the citizens of the countries affected I keep thinking back to this NYT article about Nigeria's 1% I read a while back: http://tmagazine.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/04/25/lagos-nigeria-fashion-deola-sagoe-alara-temple-muse/ Specifically the last few paragraphs: quote:Odogwu, like many of the old guard, is a very religious man. He has donated millions to the Catholic Church and is particularly proud of photographs of him and his wife in the Vatican earlier this year, renewing their marriage vows in front of Pope Francis. He believes they are the first African couple to have the Pope officiate at a marriage renewal ceremony. Assuming his view is common across the elites across West Africa, which doesn't seem unlikely, a deliberate policy of opposing development of infrastructure and educating the masses underlies the response of the population to this crisis.
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Aug 17, 2014 18:09
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benito posted:Really? That is so loving nuts. I guess some people genuinely think Ebola isn't real. Somehow. I mean they're definitely gonna get sick and probably die, right?
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Aug 17, 2014 19:21
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benito posted:Really? You've got to be loving kidding me.
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Aug 17, 2014 19:55
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ChairMaster posted:That is so loving nuts. I guess some people genuinely think Ebola isn't real. Somehow. Yes they are because they were literally stealing soiled sheets, mattresses and blankets. The Al Jazeera article has some more details : http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/8/17/liberia-quarantinebreak.html Absolutely insane.
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Aug 17, 2014 19:58
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benito posted:Really? The Beeb puts it best. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-28827091 quote:A senior police officer said blood-stained mattresses, beddings and medical equipment were taken from the centre.
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Aug 17, 2014 21:39
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Nckdictator posted:The Beeb puts it best. Natural selection in action.
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Aug 17, 2014 21:43
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blowfish posted:Natural selection in action. Future Darwin Award winners?
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Aug 17, 2014 21:45
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ThirdPartyView posted:Future Darwin Award winners? As long as they don't contaminate other people with their criminally stupid actions, sure.
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Aug 17, 2014 22:07
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Cat Mattress posted:As long as they don't contaminate other people with their criminally stupid actions, sure. Too late for that. I heard they took 7 individuals with confirmed Ebola cases and 10 suspected.
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Aug 17, 2014 22:31
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My Imaginary GF posted:Too late for that. I heard they took 7 individuals with confirmed Ebola cases and 10 suspected.  Why?
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Aug 17, 2014 22:34
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My Imaginary GF posted:Too late for that. I heard they took 7 individuals with confirmed Ebola cases and 10 suspected. They also took the bodies of Ebola victims from the clinic's morgue so they could be given traditional burials.
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Aug 17, 2014 22:43
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Don't worry everyone, I'm sure they'll have this thing under control soon.
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Aug 17, 2014 22:48
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Randandal posted:They also took the bodies of Ebola victims from the clinic's morgue so they could be given traditional burials. Which of course seem to involve kissing the corpse. Do you want ebola? Because this is how you get ebola!
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Aug 17, 2014 22:53
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quote:A senior police officer said blood-stained mattresses, beddings and medical equipment were taken from the centre. In my charmed life, I have slept on sand, grass, rocks, pavement, a park bench, a miniature golf course, the floor of an Army warehouse, the roof of a school, and many other uncomfortable locations. Yet even in the worst circumstance, it didn't occur to me that an ebola-soaked bloody mattress would be a desirable item to steal in exchange for a good night's sleep.
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Aug 17, 2014 22:56
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