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Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011



Hollinger's Playoff Odds

Top 5 and Bottom 5 of Hollinger's Power Rankings:

1. Oklahoma City Thunder
2. Indiana Pacers
3. San Antonio Spurs
4. Portland Trail Blazers
5. Golden State Warriors

---

26. Utah Jazz
27. New York Knicks
28. Cleveland Cavaliers
29. Milwaukee Bucks
30. Philadelphia 76ers

NO. 1 PICK POWER RANKINGS:
1. Milwaukee (19.1%)
2. Philadelphia (18.1%)
3. Denver (10.3%)*
4. Utah (10.1%)**
5. Cleveland (8.1%)

*Holds the rights to the New York Knicks first round pick
**Holds the rights to the Warriors' first round pick

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Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011



I couldn't find a cute GIF from this month so here's a reminder of why you should never root for Kevin Love:

chunkles
Aug 14, 2005

team chemistry


Here's a good one (it was a coast to coast)

WYA
Jan 4, 2012



Will I continue actually enjoying Raptors basketball in the New Year? Hopefully

One of the newer Raptors open gym episodes is on youtube, it's a really well done behind the scenes NBA show, this one is the locker room reaction to the Rudy trade (around 10 minutes in I think)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2h6_-YY3Ck#t=721s

hitze
Aug 28, 2007
Give me a dollar. No, the twenty. This is gonna blow your mind...


Jordan Farmar out with torn hamstring. Lakers should probably stop rushing plays back from injuries?!?!

toggle
Nov 7, 2005



hitze posted:

Jordan Farmar out with torn hamstring. Lakers should probably stop rushing plays back from injuries?!?!

Have to shore up that 10th seed some how


I forget, but the Lakers don't have any draft picks this year?

WYA
Jan 4, 2012



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2yRRdjy1dno

Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011



toggle posted:

Have to shore up that 10th seed some how


I forget, but the Lakers don't have any draft picks this year?

I think they have a lottery protected first. I'm going to ninja edit this

E: Their second goes to the Bucks but I believe they retain their first

E2M2
Mar 2, 2007
Probation
Can't post for 5 days!


http://instreetclothes.com/nba-inju...state-warriors/

Man the Warriors have really been hosed by injuries. Like if you think the Lakers have been bad with injuries this is some numbers showing how bad its been for the Warriors for awhile.

Vanilla Mint Ice
Jul 17, 2007

A raccoon is not finished when he is defeated. He is finished when he quits.


Injuries?! Sit down and let me tell you about an organizations called the new york knicks...

attackmole
Dec 15, 2007


quote:


The tanking discussion is getting to the point of stupidity when it comes to the Raptors. There's no hope to be Bucks, Utah or Cleveland bad this year

I totally agree. The east is sooooo bad that we'd need to blow up the whole drat team basically to miss playoffs, let alone get really down there. Trading Lowry just won't cut it in this years tankathon.

hitze
Aug 28, 2007
Give me a dollar. No, the twenty. This is gonna blow your mind...


Somehow missed this...Wowzers

Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011



I'm looking at the Lakers' obligations and I have to give them credit. They're what the Nets want to be but can't. They're willing to part with first round picks but don't try to skirt around the Stepien Rule and they don't promise anything too far into the future. It builds for now without horribly messing up your future if your plan doesn't work.

hitze posted:

Somehow missed this...Wowzers


Literally sewed a suit jacket out of a kimono

PantsFreeZone
May 31, 2013
Probation
Can't post for 41 hours!


I'm not the most attractive man, but Jordan Farmar is like the James Harden's teeth of ugly men.

Industrial
May 31, 2001

Everyone here wishes I would ragequit my life

Declan MacManus posted:

I couldn't find a cute GIF from this month so here's a reminder of why you should never root for Kevin Love:



Missing some important context. Earlier that season this happened:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gs1dCG1-IVE

Thomas Platinum
Aug 25, 2013


Industrial posted:

Missing some important context. Earlier that season this happened:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gs1dCG1-IVE

Lollllll

Spite
Jul 27, 2001

Small chance of that...


hitze posted:

Somehow missed this...Wowzers


He's just borrowing it from Craig.

thompson
Jun 5, 2006

The world needs bad men. We keep the other bad men from the door.


WYA posted:

Will I continue actually enjoying Raptors basketball in the New Year? Hopefully

One of the newer Raptors open gym episodes is on youtube, it's a really well done behind the scenes NBA show, this one is the locker room reaction to the Rudy trade (around 10 minutes in I think)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2h6_-YY3Ck#t=721s

This is really interesting. I had no idea this was an actual show but it's awesome. When does it usually air?

WYA
Jan 4, 2012



thompson posted:

This is really interesting. I had no idea this was an actual show but it's awesome. When does it usually air?

It's only on NBA TV Canada but airs all the time basically, but hard to find online

WEREWAIF
Mar 24, 2008

I heard it through the grape vine,
that Jesus Christ's blood became wine


hitze posted:

Somehow missed this...Wowzers


The patterned silk is supposed to be inside the jacket, Jordan

roundmidnight
Jul 9, 2010


I think you could easily make the Raptors worse than everyone except the Bucks by trading Lowry and Johnson (possible DeRozan) for garbage in return, but Ujiri is determined to get other assets if he's going to tank and nobody's going to shell out for an upper middle class PG on an expiring contract.

Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011



The more I look at it... the more I like it. I do think it's good.

Illinois Smith
Nov 15, 2003

Ninety-one? There are ninety other "Tiger Drivers"? Do any involve actual tigers, or driving?


E2M2 posted:

http://instreetclothes.com/nba-inju...state-warriors/

Man the Warriors have really been hosed by injuries. Like if you think the Lakers have been bad with injuries this is some numbers showing how bad its been for the Warriors for awhile.
2009 was my first year following the Warriors. What an exciting season!



20 guys on that year's roster, six of them managed to stay on the court for more than 45 games. EVERYBODY got to be a starter that year!

il serpente cosmico
May 15, 2003

Best five bucks I've ever spend.

I've been looking at some league-wide stats to get an idea of how the rest of the season might play out. Since it's become generally accepted around here that 3pt% defense and FT% defense are random statistics, I wanted to look at how this might affect the remainder of the season.

Interestingly, OKC is leading the league in FT% "defense" by a good margin, and they're currently second in the league in 3pt% defense, making them the luckiest team in the league. If these were adjusted to league average, they'd be giving up about 3.3 points per game more, which is pretty significant, and it would drop their point differential from a fantastic 8.1 to a merely good 4.8 (which would tie them with the Clippers). It would also downgrade their defense from second in the league to a tie for ninth in the league. A regression to the mean is likely, and Westbrook is out, so I think it's likely that OKC is going to regress.

Indiana is 1st in 3PT% defense, but 25th in FT% defense. Adjust each to league average, and they'd be giving up 1.5 points extra per game. Not as significant as OKC, and even with the adjustment they'd still lead the league in defensive efficiency.

After Portland's lucky start, they are now barely above league average in 3PT% defense. They are still giving up the fewest 3pt attempts per game in the league, though, so their overall defensive strategy hasn't changed. Portland has been unlucky in FT% defense, though, ranking 23rd in the league. Adjusting both to league league essentially results in a wash--Portland is getting spotted .1 points per game through luck.

The Clippers are another lucky team, ranking 5th in FT% defense and 4th in 3PT% defense. The two stats combined are spotting them about 2.3 ponts per game. This would adjust their point differential down to 2.5, which is good for 8th in the west.

San Antonio has been slightly unlucky, ranking 20th in FT% defense and 19th in 3PT% defense. Bad luck is costing them about a quarter point per game, which obviously isn't very significant. Their pace should be sustainable, though.

il serpente cosmico fucked around with this message at Jan 1, 2014 around 22:52

Rick
Feb 23, 2004
And now the whole nation - pulpit and all - will take up the war-cry, and shout itself hoarse, and mob any honest man who ventures to open his mouth; and presently such mouths will cease to open.

hitze posted:

Jordan Farmar out with torn hamstring. Lakers should probably stop rushing plays back from injuries?!?!

It was an injury that was supposed to take him out 3-4 weeks and it took him 3.5 weeks to come back from it?!?

Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011



San Antonio quietly has an excellent defense this year

Defensive Top Ten (based on DRTG, nothing silly like Opponent Points per game or FG% come on that's baby poo poo):
1. Pacers
. (by a lot)
.(seriously they're like 5 points per 100 possessions better than second place)
.(even if you take into account that they're in the East)
.(seriously guys)
2. Thunder
3. Bobcats
4. Warriors
5. Bulls
6. Spurs
7. Clippers
8. Heat
9. Celtics (playing in the Atlantic is real cool)
10. Raptors (ice cold)

Offensive Top Ten:
1. Blazers (by a fair amount, not as much as the Pacers but respectable)
2. Heat
3. Rockets
4. Spurs
5. Thunder
6. Pelicans
7. Mavericks
8. Timberwolves
9. Clippers
10. Suns

Teams appearing on both: Thunder (2, 5), Heat (8, 2), Spurs (6, 4), Clippers (7, 9)
Just missed: Timberwolves (11, 8), Pacers (1, 12), Hawks (11, 12)

Top Ten SRS (who's winning by the most against the best competition):
1. Thunder
2. Pacers
3. Spurs
4. Blazers
5. Heat
6. Clippers
7. Warriors
8. Timberwolves
9. Rockets
10. Suns

Top Ten SOS (who has the hardest schedule):
1. Jazz
2. Kings
3. Grizzlies
4. Thunder
5. Lakers
6. Rockets
7. Nuggets
8. Warriors
9. Clippers
10. Suns

Top 10 Pace (who plays the fastest):
1. 76ers
2. Timberwolves
3. Warriors
4. Lakers
5. Thunder
6. Clippers
7. Rockets
8. Suns
9. Spurs
10. Hawks

Top 10 3PAr (who takes the most threes relative to the number of shots they attempt overall):
1. Rockets
2. Suns
3. Lakers
4. Hawks
5. Knicks
6. Blazers
7. Clippers
8. Warriors
9. Heat
10. Mavericks

Top 10 FTr (who goes to the line the most relative to their shot attempts):
1. Rockets
2. Clippers
3. Nets
4. Heat
5. Thunder
6. Raptors
7. Timberwolves
8. Bobcats
9. Kings
10. Nuggets

Top 10 eFG% (who shoots the best from the floor, weighted for threes):
1. Heat
2. Spurs
3. Rockets
4. Hawks
5. Suns
6. Mavericks
7. Warriors
8. Blazers
9. Thunder
10. Clippers

The B_36
Jul 10, 2012


Illinois Smith posted:

2009 was my first year following the Warriors. What an exciting season!



20 guys on that year's roster, six of them managed to stay on the court for more than 45 games. EVERYBODY got to be a starter that year!

Talking about injuries, I'm wondering if there's any way to correlate player games lost to injuries with coaching, and if there would be any value to it. Bulls fans, for example, often complain that Thibodeau overworks his players, often to the point of injury, but have his players overall lost more games to injury than another coach?

Again, not sure if it can easily be done, and even if so, I would imagine a coach would need to have a fairly long career to balance out coincidences and such (can't fault Thibs if Rose decides to sleep with a knife again [that was Rose right?])

The B_36 fucked around with this message at Jan 1, 2014 around 23:16

Rick
Feb 23, 2004
And now the whole nation - pulpit and all - will take up the war-cry, and shout itself hoarse, and mob any honest man who ventures to open his mouth; and presently such mouths will cease to open.

quote:

Top Ten SRS (who's winning by the most against the best competition):
1. Thunder
2. Pacers
3. Spurs
4. Blazers
5. Heat
6. Clippers
7. Warriors
8. Timberwolves
9. Rockets
10. Suns

Top Ten SOS (who has the hardest schedule):
1. Jazz
2. Kings
3. Grizzlies
4. Thunder
5. Lakers
6. Rockets
7. Nuggets
8. Warriors
9. Clippers
10. Suns

That makes me really impressed with the Thunder. Also it makes me think the thread title should be changed to "The Suns are Legit"

PantsFreeZone
May 31, 2013
Probation
Can't post for 41 hours!


If the Thunder had a real coach, I'd pick them to come out of the West. But right now, I still think there's going to be a bit of a surprise in the WCF, like Houston over OKC or San Antonio.

Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011



Rick posted:

That makes me really impressed with the Thunder. Also it makes me think the thread title should be changed to "The Suns are Legit"

I'm not trying to jinx the Suns

Ramadu
Aug 25, 2004

THAT'S our O-line?


Declan MacManus posted:


Top 10 Pace (who plays the fastest):
1. 76ers
2. Timberwolves
3. Warriors
4. Lakers
5. Thunder
6. Clippers
7. Rockets
8. Suns
9. Spurs
10. Hawks



THis seems totally wrong. The suns seem to play way way faster than the 4 teams ahead of them for sure

Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011



Ramadu posted:

THis seems totally wrong. The suns seem to play way way faster than the 4 teams ahead of them for sure

It just tracks who uses the most possessions; it can get distorted by teams that grab a lot of offensive rebounds.

Zogo
Jul 29, 2003



Lockback posted:

I don't think they are a contender, but the fact they are #1 in the league at preventing free-throws mitigates that FG% problem. That is largely a coaching decision, they accept points and in return don't get into foul trouble or give free points at the line.

A playoff contender? Yes, giving up the least amount of FT points helps make them average overall but FG% correlates to winning more than any aspect of FT shooting and is basically the most important measurement game to game besides points themselves. Minnesota has the worst 2P defense currently.

FT shooting has become less important in recent years as teams shoot them less and less (23 FTA this year on average compared to 26 FTA 10 years back, and 28 FTA 20 years back and 30+ 30 years ago).

Groucho Marxist
Dec 9, 2005

Here stands baseball's perfect warrior.

Here stands baseball's perfect knight.


Rick posted:

That makes me really impressed with the Thunder. Also it makes me think the thread title should be changed to "The Suns are Legit"

If Lamb and Adams are as good as they look right now, Presti is going to come out of the Harden trade smelling like roses.

soggybagel
Aug 6, 2006

Even in our sleep, pain which cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, until, in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom through the awful grace of God.

-Robert F. Kennedy on Being a Minnesota Sports Fan

Declan MacManus posted:

I couldn't find a cute GIF from this month so here's a reminder of why you should never root for Kevin Love:



Never Forget...no foul called:



Bonus Call: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6T4gCj2qZ2M

Inside Outside
Jul 31, 2005



The Wizards just had players wear jerseys 1, 2, 3, and 4 at the same time, has a team ever rolled out a lineup featuring sequential numbers?

Hand Knit
Oct 24, 2005

Beer Loses more than a game Sunday ...
We lost our Captain, our Teammate, our Friend Kelly Calabro...
Rest in Peace my friend you will be greatly missed..


Declan MacManus posted:


Top Ten SOS (who has the hardest schedule):
1. Jazz
2. Kings
3. Grizzlies
4. Thunder
5. Lakers
6. Rockets
7. Nuggets
8. Warriors
9. Clippers
10. Suns

All Western teams. I think I heard that the Raptors are tops from the East, at ~14th overall.

WYA
Jan 4, 2012



Of course western teams would have a harder schedule when only two teams are winning in the east

Hand Knit
Oct 24, 2005

Beer Loses more than a game Sunday ...
We lost our Captain, our Teammate, our Friend Kelly Calabro...
Rest in Peace my friend you will be greatly missed..


WYA posted:

Of course western teams would have a harder schedule when only two teams are winning in the east

Yeah, it's expected. But it's also auspicious for the Raptors that they're tops in the East (and will presumably keep that title in playing Indiana, Miami, and Indiana again this upcoming week).

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WYA
Jan 4, 2012



Hand Knit posted:

Yeah, it's expected. But it's also auspicious for the Raptors that they're tops in the East (and will presumably keep that title in playing Indiana, Miami, and Indiana again this upcoming week).

That Raptors schedule was a secret Stern plot to land Wiggins in Toronto

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