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tinstaach
Aug 3, 2010

MAGNetic AttITUDE


While Canada and the northern United States are buried in snow, let's all warm our hearts / stoke the burning coals of our rage with thoughts on the upcoming fantasy baseball season! Let's talk about mock drafts, keepers, sleepers, all the money you won/lost last year, how much Tim Lincecum sucks, how much H2H sucks, and how much fantasy baseball sucks.

The guy who won $320 in my league last year just asked our league Facebook group what a quality start is. gently caress everything.

Spoeank posted:

And Magnitude if you want to pop pop this into the OP, it was a brief write-up I did on some resources:

A Brief List of Resources
Websites
Fan Graphs has every tiny little statistic that you could want to evaluate a player, and they have several projections. Careful looking at these, however. Oliver, for example, has no basis in actual playing time as they project most of the league for 600 PA. They also have a fantasy section, Rotographs, to help you out.

Rotoworld has literally all the sports transaction and injury news you could need for fantasy sports. It also has fairly good advice attached to the news.

Fantasy Pros aggregates, grades and orders expert advice and projections. It normalizes for weird biases a specific analyst may have.

Podcasts
My preferred medium, as I don't always have time to read through articles. I mainly listen to four podcasts:
CBSSports.com Fantasy Baseball Today is partially entertainment and partially pretty good analysis. One of the main analysts, Al Melchior, was the #2 most accurate in 2013 projections last year. If you ever wondered what that Nando guy from Fantasyland is up to these days, it's this. Their video show also won an award.

ESPN Fantasy Focus Baseball was traditionally the ranting ground for Matthew Berry, but he and co-host Nate Ravitz stepped aside & frequent contributors Eric Karabell & Tristan Cockcroft have taken over. They're still trying to get their legs under them & it doesn't have much direction. They don't have the cohesion & entertainment value of Berry & Ravitz, but they would probably offer you better advice.

Fangraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust is new for me this year, hosted by Eno Sarris & Jason Collette (as of 2014). It offers very in-depth analysis, and is basically the equivalent of reading fangraphs to you. It's very information dense but very worth the time.

MLB.com Fantasy 411 used to be an incredible daily call-in and email show covering fantasy baseball. It became an MLB Network studio show and is now a twice-a-week (in season) podcast. Mike Schiano & Cory Schwartz are old friends & offer a bit of entertainment. Schwartz is MLB VP of Statistics, so they're not light on information to go with their analysis.

tinstaach fucked around with this message at 16:10 on Feb 6, 2014

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tadashi
Feb 20, 2006

I'm joining an auction keeper league that has been going on for a long time. I don't have a lot of experience with auctions so I expect to get my rear end kicked but I was wondering about auction strategies when it comes to nominating players.

Is it better to nominate just the players you're trying to target or is there some value in nominating players you know other people are going to bid up pretty high and try to bleed other teams out of money? For example, is it viable to nominate closers or steals-only guys early (players I wouldn't mind picking up for a couple bucks) in order to see if I can get some teams to over-commit early or get a chance to pick up some players on the cheap who I might want anyway but would usually end up coming up later in the draft?

MODS CURE JOKES
Nov 11, 2009

OFFICIAL SAS 90s REMEMBERER
Don't pay for saves, that's the only rule I follow in an auction. Also, nominate players considered overrated and watch the money fly!

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves.
Settings?

DoctaFun
Dec 12, 2005

Dammit Francis!
An early reminder why H2H kind of sucks and you shouldn't play it for big money.

Meet the 8th best team in my fantasy league last year(my team), top 6 made the playoffs.

WEIGHS 190 BENCHES 450

C: Wilson Ramos
1B: Prince Fielder
2B: Robinson Cano
3B: Ryan Zimmermann
SS: Jose Reyes
OF: Matt Holliday
OF: Bryce Harper
OF: Jose Bautista
UTIL: Joey Votto

SP: Yu Darvish
SP: Stephen Strasburg
SP: David Price
SP: Chris Sale
SP: James Shields
SP: Shelby Miller
SP: Mike Minor
SP: Jake Peavy
SP: Gerrit Cole


This is in a H2H points league where pitchers get the following points:

IP: +.9
W: +3
K: +1
QS: +6
BB: -.5
H: -.5
ER: -.5

uublog
Jul 19, 2012

"World Champions. WORLD FUCKING CHAMPIONS." - Chase Utley, October 31, 2008; Broad Street, Philadelphia, PA

tadashi posted:

Is it better to nominate just the players you're trying to target or is there some value in nominating players you know other people are going to bid up pretty high and try to bleed other teams out of money? For example, is it viable to nominate closers or steals-only guys early (players I wouldn't mind picking up for a couple bucks) in order to see if I can get some teams to over-commit early or get a chance to pick up some players on the cheap who I might want anyway but would usually end up coming up later in the draft?

SWITCH HITLER posted:

Don't pay for saves, that's the only rule I follow in an auction. Also, nominate players considered overrated and watch the money fly!

This is generally the practice I follow early in the draft, guys I don't have much interest to take someone out of contention on a guy I do want. Later in the draft, when you start being able to get dudes for $1, I tend to go to ones I'd like to fill out my bench or who I'd take as long as they stayed under like $3 or so.

Apparently Yahoo already opened their games, anybody know when ESPN does the same? Anxiously waiting to re-activate my 16-or-20-team (it changes from year to year, I dunno) league going into its 5th year (I think?) 6th year! (jesus) with new keeper rules this season. Also a 10-team 8-team (jesus) roto keeper that I just ran away with from like May on, that title should be fun to defend too.

uublog fucked around with this message at 03:41 on Feb 8, 2014

tinstaach
Aug 3, 2010

MAGNetic AttITUDE


tadashi posted:

I'm joining an auction keeper league that has been going on for a long time. I don't have a lot of experience with auctions so I expect to get my rear end kicked but I was wondering about auction strategies when it comes to nominating players.

I've only ever done mock auction drafts, but one rule I follow is to never ever nominate your sleeper guys until most of the money is gone. If you're still in the early rounds and everyone is throwing money around, a $2 player can turn in to $9 really quickly, and while it may be an overpay for the other guy, it's a potential bargain that you missed out on.

DoctaFun posted:

An early reminder why H2H kind of sucks and you shouldn't play it for big money.

You might remember from my constant complaining in last year's thread, but by the end of my season in my 9x6 H2H league, my lineup featured Yadi Molina, Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Votto, Troy Tulowitzki, Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, Carlos Gonzalez, and Giancarlo Stanton. I came in 5th out of 10 (some of those guys having crappy second halves didn't help either).

tinstaach fucked around with this message at 18:55 on Feb 3, 2014

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves.
Going into my third year of min/maxing stats. People stay away from AVG killers like the plague but you can pick up a lot of value if you're punting it.

Alfonso Soriano gets a lot of flak and yahoo has him as a $2 player but if he hit .300 he'd be a second rounder. 70 or more runs, 30 homers, 100 rbi, maybe 15 steals.

Trumbo, Pedro Alvarez- near 70 hr, 170 rbi between them, probably for less than half the price of Miguel Cabrera

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves.
Well, since I have no life and I love fantasy baseball, I drafted an actual team already.

C: Wilin Rosario
1B: Chris Davis
2B: Jose Altuve
3B: Pedro Alvarez
SS: Everth Cabrera
OF: Carlos Gomez, Starling Marte, Alex Rios
UT: Mike Trumbo, Alfonso Soriano
BN: Jonathan Villar, Chris Carter

SP: Jon Lester (whoops)
RP: Jason Grilli, Jim Johnson, Casey Janssen, Bobby Parnell, Steve Cihsek, Grant Balfour, Sean Marshall, Paco Rodriguez, Tyler Clippard, Mark Melancon

Homers and steals baby

uublog
Jul 19, 2012

"World Champions. WORLD FUCKING CHAMPIONS." - Chase Utley, October 31, 2008; Broad Street, Philadelphia, PA
And saves I guess? That'll be a fun experiment

Moe_Rahn
Jun 1, 2006

I got a question
why they hatin' on me?
I ain't did nothin' to 'em
but count this money
and put my team on
got my whole clique stunnin'
boy wassup
yeeeeeaaaaaahhhh
420 score putouts every day

Slagwag
Oct 27, 2010

"I am not a nugget!"
I only do H2H Points. I find it to be a blast with my friends. We normally toss in $20 a team so no huge wager and just play for fun. 10 teams and keeps us following our players rather than "our teams" since we are all Yankees fans.

But I totally agree that in the normal scoring system that you get with H2H it gets a little crazy on who makes it through playoffs with their team. Heck this season I am debating if I should make hitting for the cycle valued at 10 points.

The Piper
Feb 18, 2007

Step right up and greet the Mets
Can I get some Keeper advice, goons?

Keep one (with corresponding draft round that I'd forfeit)
Jason Werth (12th round)
Wil Myers (21st round)

I gotta keep Myers, right? Myers could be poised for a breakout year while Werth will almost certainly fall short of his impressive 2013 numbers this year. Plus the difference in rounds considering I picked up Myers as a FA last season.

jabro
Mar 25, 2003

July Mock Draft 2014

1st PLACE
RUNNER-UP
got the knowshon


Slagwag posted:

I only do H2H Points. I find it to be a blast with my friends. We normally toss in $20 a team so no huge wager and just play for fun. 10 teams and keeps us following our players rather than "our teams" since we are all Yankees fans.

But I totally agree that in the normal scoring system that you get with H2H it gets a little crazy on who makes it through playoffs with their team. Heck this season I am debating if I should make hitting for the cycle valued at 10 points.

We do a friends H2H league that my friend commishes. He always asks me for scoring advice to shake things up so in 2012 I suggested a Perfect Game stat for 100 points. He said that would be crazy, way too many points, which I replied that there probably won't be one since perfect games never happen. Only 20 over 130+ years of baseball but it would be funny if one would happen for the meltdown of the guy who plays against it. Of course, Murphy's Law kicked in and three perfect games were completed that year. The funniest thing is the first one was against my friend whose opponent spot started Phil Humber for the week. Not the one start but the whole week. Who the hell does that?



The Piper posted:

Can I get some Keeper advice, goons?

Keep one (with corresponding draft round that I'd forfeit)
Jason Werth (12th round)
Wil Myers (21st round)

I gotta keep Myers, right? Myers could be poised for a breakout year while Werth will almost certainly fall short of his impressive 2013 numbers this year. Plus the difference in rounds considering I picked up Myers as a FA last season.

It's not even close. You keep Myers forever or until he breaks at that keeper round.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

I'm in a keeper league where we keep ten players every year at no cost (they're just your first ten picks) and I'm starting to wonder if I should try to sell on Cano before the start of the season. Should I calm down or is his age/playing in Seattle a cause for concern? I already have Matt Carpenter so I have an able 2B, though I would need a 3B to cover where I'd be playing him once Miggy gets 1B eligible.

tinstaach
Aug 3, 2010

MAGNetic AttITUDE


You have ten players that are better than Robinson Cano?

Screen Door Slams
Jan 27, 2014

Michael Pineda just couldn't stay healthy...
I just did my first mock draft of the year and ended up with this team, what do y'all think?



Rosters set weekly, H2H points with the following scoring:



I think I have some gambles in there (ie, every pitcher I drafted, to one degree or another), but it could be a good team.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

tinstaach posted:

You have ten players that are better than Robinson Cano?

I said sell, not drop. I'd be trading him, either in a pre-draft deal or sometime between the draft and the start of the season.

DoctaFun
Dec 12, 2005

Dammit Francis!

IcePhoenix posted:

I'm in a keeper league where we keep ten players every year at no cost (they're just your first ten picks) and I'm starting to wonder if I should try to sell on Cano before the start of the season. Should I calm down or is his age/playing in Seattle a cause for concern? I already have Matt Carpenter so I have an able 2B, though I would need a 3B to cover where I'd be playing him once Miggy gets 1B eligible.

As long as you get ELITE talent back, otherwise I wouldn't even consider it. It will be hard to beat a right side of Miggy/Cano.

ZenVulgarity
Oct 9, 2012

I made the hat by transforming my zen

What should you be looking for when you're trading someone who's a high pick in a keeper league? I currently have Verlander and Zimmerman in my second and third respectively and I have zero idea how to value them compared to lower round selections. Typically I have an irrational clinging to higher picks regardless of any regression or what not. Should I even consider any lower pick guys and use them as a keeper (say, getting Michael Wacha at round 24), therefore freeing up my second rounder for someone else?

ZenVulgarity fucked around with this message at 15:00 on Feb 5, 2014

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

ZenVulgarity posted:

What should you be looking for when you're trading someone who's a high pick in a keeper league? I currently have Verlander and Zimmerman in my second and third respectively and I have zero idea how to value them compared to lower round selections. Typically I have an irrational clinging to higher picks regardless of any regression or what not. Should I even consider any lower pick guys and use them as a keeper (say, getting Michael Wacha at round 24), therefore freeing up my second rounder for someone else?

There's an important thing you should consider about Keeper Value, and that's where you expect the players you're keeping to be drafted.

Also if you really have Wacha at 24 and you're not keeping him then you're insane.

ZenVulgarity
Oct 9, 2012

I made the hat by transforming my zen

IcePhoenix posted:

There's an important thing you should consider about Keeper Value, and that's where you expect the players you're keeping to be drafted.

Also if you really have Wacha at 24 and you're not keeping him then you're insane.

I agree!

DoctaFun
Dec 12, 2005

Dammit Francis!

ZenVulgarity posted:

What should you be looking for when you're trading someone who's a high pick in a keeper league? I currently have Verlander and Zimmerman in my second and third respectively and I have zero idea how to value them compared to lower round selections. Typically I have an irrational clinging to higher picks regardless of any regression or what not. Should I even consider any lower pick guys and use them as a keeper (say, getting Michael Wacha at round 24), therefore freeing up my second rounder for someone else?

The only way I would keep a first 3 round pick is if it's someone that is the best at their position and a guaranteed 1st-2nd rounder. So if you have a guy like Trout/Miggy for a first round pick, or maybe you got lucky and someone like Kershaw in the 3rd or 4th round. For the absolute studs it's not as much about 'value', it's more about getting the best player at a position. Miggy is just so much better than any other 3B that even though he's your 1st round pick, you still get good value out of it. Meanwhile if you keep Prince Fielder in the 1st or 2nd round, well that's not great value because you could draft Votto/Goldschmidt/Encarnacion with your 1st or 2nd round pick and be no worse for the wear.

Now picking Verlander in the 2nd round might not bring the same value. Let's say he pitches in between his '12 and '13 numbers, there are still a half dozen other pitchers that will put up similar numbers, some of which might fall to the 3rd or 4th round depending on how much your league values pitching. Guys like Wainwright, Scherzer, Sale, Darvish, Felix, etc. So you're not getting any value with that pick.

I think keeping Zimmerman in the 3rd round would be a mistake, I think there are better 3rd rounders out there.

If you have a guy that you drafted in the 24th round who is going to go in the 10th round this year, then that is a GREAT keeper. No one else can keep Verlander or Zimmerman so if you really want them on your team you'll still have an opportunity to draft them.

Now, when it comes to trading these players, that's a whole different ballgame. A guy like Wacha in the 24th round has HUGE trade value. If you traded him for lets say Prince Fielder in the 2nd round, you'd probably be getting the short end of the stick. The reason being you could just draft a 1B like Fielder in the 2nd round on your own and still keep Wacha. Meanwhile the other guy is opening up a 2nd round pick(where he could draft say Paul Goldschmidt or something) AND getting a really good young pitcher in the 24th round, which is garbage time.

How many keepers do you get and what does your team look like?

ZenVulgarity
Oct 9, 2012

I made the hat by transforming my zen

DoctaFun posted:

The only way I would keep a first 3 round pick is if it's someone that is the best at their position and a guaranteed 1st-2nd rounder. So if you have a guy like Trout/Miggy for a first round pick, or maybe you got lucky and someone like Kershaw in the 3rd or 4th round. For the absolute studs it's not as much about 'value', it's more about getting the best player at a position. Miggy is just so much better than any other 3B that even though he's your 1st round pick, you still get good value out of it. Meanwhile if you keep Prince Fielder in the 1st or 2nd round, well that's not great value because you could draft Votto/Goldschmidt/Encarnacion with your 1st or 2nd round pick and be no worse for the wear.

Now picking Verlander in the 2nd round might not bring the same value. Let's say he pitches in between his '12 and '13 numbers, there are still a half dozen other pitchers that will put up similar numbers, some of which might fall to the 3rd or 4th round depending on how much your league values pitching. Guys like Wainwright, Scherzer, Sale, Darvish, Felix, etc. So you're not getting any value with that pick.

I think keeping Zimmerman in the 3rd round would be a mistake, I think there are better 3rd rounders out there.

If you have a guy that you drafted in the 24th round who is going to go in the 10th round this year, then that is a GREAT keeper. No one else can keep Verlander or Zimmerman so if you really want them on your team you'll still have an opportunity to draft them.

Now, when it comes to trading these players, that's a whole different ballgame. A guy like Wacha in the 24th round has HUGE trade value. If you traded him for lets say Prince Fielder in the 2nd round, you'd probably be getting the short end of the stick. The reason being you could just draft a 1B like Fielder in the 2nd round on your own and still keep Wacha. Meanwhile the other guy is opening up a 2nd round pick(where he could draft say Paul Goldschmidt or something) AND getting a really good young pitcher in the 24th round, which is garbage time.

How many keepers do you get and what does your team look like?

Let's take a look!



To go into the entire draft order and who's a keeper would be a bit much, I think. The keepers I currently have from last year are:

1 - Tulo
2 - Verlander
3- Zimmerman
6 - Bourn
8 - Rios
9 - Freeman
15 - Kendrick
21 - Vargas
22 - Brantley

via trade was 15 - Taveras
16 - Bauer
22 - Myers

You can keep ten players.

This is a 12 team keeper league that I inherited from someone who just didn't have the time.
Ten keepers.
1-6 stays in that slot.
7-9 +1 round
10-15 +2 rounds
16+ +3 rounds

So Wil Myers would be in my 19th slot for next year.

There also will be an NA slot this year for people who are not available. So if Taveras doesn't play until May, he can be stashed there for a while.

Oh yeah, stats for bats:
R HR RBI SB OBP SLG

Stats for Pitchers:

W K ERA WHIP NSVH

ZenVulgarity fucked around with this message at 18:47 on Feb 5, 2014

ZenVulgarity
Oct 9, 2012

I made the hat by transforming my zen

Something that came across my inbox just now was Verlander for Bruce + Anibal Sanchez or Johnny Cueto + A Pick

Bruce was in round five (so roughly was picked up in the 55th slot) and Sanchez is in round 12.

I would imagine that for that second round pick I might be able to get something good. However, with 12 teams that makes for 120 keepers.

It's just a hugely different way of doing things than I'm used to.

DoctaFun
Dec 12, 2005

Dammit Francis!

ZenVulgarity posted:

Something that came across my inbox just now was Verlander for Bruce + Anibal Sanchez or Johnny Cueto + A Pick

Bruce was in round five (so roughly was picked up in the 55th slot) and Sanchez is in round 12.

I would imagine that for that second round pick I might be able to get something good. However, with 12 teams that makes for 120 keepers.

It's just a hugely different way of doing things than I'm used to.

There are a lot of factors to consider then, but remember that even though there is 120 keepers, there is still only 12 1st round keepers, and 12 second round keepers, etc. If a team acquired a 3rd round player from another team via trade, are they then only able to keep one of their 3rd round players from the previous year(my guess is yes)? That means that even though there are 120 players being kept, it's not necessarily going to be the best 120 players. Meanwhile there is definitely going to be guys who had down years last year who will likely not be kept, maybe guys like Matt Kemp or Prince Fielder. I might rescind my comment about not keeping top 1-3 round players though since you get to keep 10. Unless you know for a fact that top talent is available still in the first couple rounds, you're going to want to hold onto those guys.

If possible it might be worth doing some research into what players are likely to be kept. Does anyone have two 1st, 2nd or 3rd round players on their team? If so, you could make that trade and still pickup a 2nd round talent with your draft pick, which might be a decent idea. I haven't been staying up to date with fantasy player value, but Bruce in the 5th sounds pretty good and Sanchez in the 12th also sounds pretty good. Bruce is a top 5 or 10 OF when it comes to power numbers.


Looking at your roster, if it was me the must keeps would be:

Tulo
Taveras(especially with that NA spot)
Myers
Freeman

Maybes:
Verlander
Bourn
Rios
Wheeler(what round?)
Cashner(what round)
Perkins(what round)

Rios and Bourn give you a speedy OF, but then you'd need to make up for the lack of power in your infield. Tulo helps from a weak SS spot, and Freeman was solid last year in everything. This might be a good case for that first trade, Bruce gives you good power numbers from your third OF spot(with the potential of Myers adding to that power as well), Sanchez helps your fairly non-existant pitching staff, and then you can maybe add another power bat with the 2nd round pick? There has to be a top power bat that sleeps through the keeper cracks because someone has multiple 1st/2nd rounders. Or even a top pitcher I guess at that point. If you're able to get a top pitcher with the 2nd pick then you just have to decide which you'd rather have:

Verlander + 5th round pick + 11th round pick
or
2nd round pick + Bruce + Sanchez

In that situation you'd have a pretty good start to a team: Tulo/Myers/Freeman/Bourn/Rios/Bruce/Sanchez/+++
but you'd still have your 2nd / 3rd / 4th / 5th / 7th / 10th round picks to shore up your infield and pitching staff. I think that gives you a pretty decent shot depending on who will be available. It's possible your 2nd and 3rd picks could net two players from:
Pedroia/Kinsler/Darvish/Sale/Wainwright/Beltre/Longoria etc. Maybe someone even decides to let Cano go to the draft board.

That got really long, sorry.

ZenVulgarity
Oct 9, 2012

I made the hat by transforming my zen

Deal got switched to Bruce + Cueto + a ninth round pick for Verlander + a 24th. Cueto was in the 11th last year.

You can only keep one first rounder, one second rounder, etc. That way someone doesn't trade for Cano, etc etc and have a stack of first rounders forever.

Wheeler was undrafted last year and his ADP 195, so he would be considered a 16th round keeper this year.

Perkins was an 18th round selection last year. He would be bumped up to a 15th round selection this year.

Cashner was undrafted last year and his ADP is 202, so he would be considered a 16th round keeper this year.

If you trade for a pick, you can use that traded for pick as an additional keeper slot for that round.

If you have 2 players with the same slot, you can keep both, but you have to move one of them up a slot. For example you have round 15 keeper and 2 round 16 keepers: You move the 15 up to 14, the 16 up to 15, etc..

Rios and Bourn is an interesting, speedy combination. Why not take the chance on Springer? His K rate is scary high in the minors would be my guess.

This makes my head hurt.

Screen Door Slams
Jan 27, 2014

Michael Pineda just couldn't stay healthy...
And now after my first mock draft, my first actual draft:

code:
Round	Pick	Name		Position
1	1	Mike Trout		OF
2	20	Joe Mauer		C/1B
3	21	Troy Tulowitzki		SS
4	40	Adrian Beltre		3B
5	41	Dustin Pedroia		2B
6	60	Carlos Santana		C/1B
7	61	Buster Posey		C/1B
8	80	Jayson Werth		OF
9	81	Jay Bruce		OF
10	100	Andrew Cashner		SP
11	101	Shelby Miller		SP
12	120	Doug Fister		SP
13	121	Marco Estrada		SP
14	140	Steve Cishek		RP
15	141	Jim Johnson		RP
16	160	Matt Kemp		OF
17	161	Zack Wheeler		SP
18	180	Victor Martinez		DH
19	181	Hiroki Kuroda		SP
20	200	Carlos Beltran		OF
21	201	Travis Wood		SP
10-team H2H points, scoring as follows:


I think I'm going to use Posey and/or Santana as trade bait for better pitching, but I'm really happy with this draft. Especially the flier on Kemp at 160 and stealing Beltran at 200.

Screen Door Slams fucked around with this message at 00:02 on Feb 6, 2014

DoctaFun
Dec 12, 2005

Dammit Francis!

ZenVulgarity posted:

Deal got switched to Bruce + Cueto + a ninth round pick for Verlander + a 24th. Cueto was in the 11th last year.

You can only keep one first rounder, one second rounder, etc. That way someone doesn't trade for Cano, etc etc and have a stack of first rounders forever.

Wheeler was undrafted last year and his ADP 195, so he would be considered a 16th round keeper this year.

Perkins was an 18th round selection last year. He would be bumped up to a 15th round selection this year.

Cashner was undrafted last year and his ADP is 202, so he would be considered a 16th round keeper this year.

If you trade for a pick, you can use that traded for pick as an additional keeper slot for that round.

If you have 2 players with the same slot, you can keep both, but you have to move one of them up a slot. For example you have round 15 keeper and 2 round 16 keepers: You move the 15 up to 14, the 16 up to 15, etc..

Rios and Bourn is an interesting, speedy combination. Why not take the chance on Springer? His K rate is scary high in the minors would be my guess.

This makes my head hurt.

I overlooked Springer, sorry about that. If he's a late rounder then I think it makes sense to take a chance on him. Maybe wait until someone else chimes in, but I really like that deal for Verlander, you get a legit power OF bat, a solid starter and a 9th rounder for someone that will probably be replaced with your 2nd round pick. If Verlander doesn't rebound a bit he's not a 2nd round pitcher anyways.

Future Is Medieval posted:

And now after my first mock draft, my first actual draft:

code:
Round	Pick	Name		Position
1	1	Mike Trout		OF
2	20	Joe Mauer		C/1B
3	21	Troy Tulowitzki		SS
4	40	Adrian Beltre		3B
5	41	Dustin Pedroia		2B
6	60	Carlos Santana		C/1B
7	61	Buster Posey		C/1B
8	80	Jayson Werth		OF
9	81	Jay Bruce		OF
10	100	Andrew Cashner		SP
11	101	Shelby Miller		SP
12	120	Doug Fister		SP
13	121	Marco Estrada		SP
14	140	Steve Cishek		RP
15	141	Jim Johnson		RP
16	160	Matt Kemp		OF
17	161	Zack Wheeler		SP
18	180	Victor Martinez		DH
19	181	Hiroki Kuroda		SP
20	200	Carlos Beltran		OF
21	201	Travis Wood		SP
10-team H2H points, scoring as follows:


I think I'm going to use Posey and/or Santana as trade bait for better pitching, but I'm really happy with this draft. Especially the flier on Kemp at 160 and stealing Beltran at 200.

:stare: those league settings. That's a pretty studly team, is it a 2 catcher league? Because you have like the 3 best catchers in the league. A lot of great picks though, I wonder who you are playing against. I would definitely try to upgrade your pitching staff a bit, especially with those league settings. 7 points for a save means you should try to make sure you are maxing your RP slots every day, and THREE points for an inning pitched? That means a save with 1 K and no hits/walks is worth a whopping 11 points. Also, it looks like power hitters should be very valuable, 6 points for a solo home run is quite a bit. That's equivalent to 3 non-RBI doubles. I'd stack up on HR getters and pitchers who get a lot of QS and go deep in games.

Screen Door Slams
Jan 27, 2014

Michael Pineda just couldn't stay healthy...

DoctaFun posted:

:stare: those league settings. That's a pretty studly team, is it a 2 catcher league? Because you have like the 3 best catchers in the league. A lot of great picks though, I wonder who you are playing against. I would definitely try to upgrade your pitching staff a bit, especially with those league settings. 7 points for a save means you should try to make sure you are maxing your RP slots every day, and THREE points for an inning pitched? That means a save with 1 K and no hits/walks is worth a whopping 11 points. Also, it looks like power hitters should be very valuable, 6 points for a solo home run is quite a bit. That's equivalent to 3 non-RBI doubles. I'd stack up on HR getters and pitchers who get a lot of QS and go deep in games.

Only one catcher, but there's a DH/Utility slot. Posey and Santana both have 1B eligibility, so I currently have Mauer at C, Santana at 1B, and Posey at DH/Utility. Basically when I saw that Posey and Santana were still on the board in the 6th/7th rounds I decided to take them hostage as trade bait.

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves.

Future Is Medieval posted:

I decided to take them hostage as trade bait.

This works less than you'd think. Then again I employ a strategy that has its downside, so

Rand alPaul
Feb 3, 2010

by Nyc_Tattoo
Anyone know when ESPN Fantasy Baseball isn't going to be down for maintenance? It's been down for a week now.

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it
I guess my thread was that bad, eh?

I'll move my keeper question here:

My (12 team) league has what we call the "Rule of Three." No player drafted in the first three rounds can be kept. Three hitters and three pitchers are eligible to be kept for three years total. Waiver wire pickups are "last round" players.

I leveraged a lot of keeper eligible players to try to win last year & I'm paying the price this year with a mediocre crop of keeper eligible players. Players are kept in their drafted round.

Rules are standard 5x5 plus H & TB for hitters and L and K/BB for pitchers:
Bold is who I'm leaning towards.
Eligible Keepers:
Yasiel Puig - OF - Round 14
Matt Holliday - OF - Round 4
Matt Carpenter - like every goddamned position - Last Round
Josh Donaldson - 3B - Last Round
Curtis Granderson - OF - Round 8
Alfonso Soriano - OF - Last Round
Brad Miller - 2B, SS - Last Round
Jason Castro - C - Last Round
Yan Gomes - C - Last Round

I literally may not keep 3 hitters.

Greg Holland - RP - Last Round (previously kept)
Rafael Soriano - RP - Last Round (previously kept)
Danny Salazar - SP - Last Round
Patrick Corbin - SP - Last Round
Ervin Santana - SP - Last Round
Ubaldo Jimenez - SP - Last Round
Rex Brothers - RP - Last Round
John Lackey - SP - Last Round


My pitchers depend on where Jimenez & Santana land, I suppose. I usually just lockdown a couple of cheap closers and a starter because I have a ton of confidence in finding good, cheap Starting Pitching. I may just roll with Holland/Soriano and one of Salazar/Corbin depending on how Spring Training shakes out.

Like I said, I mortgaged my future to try to win last season (trading Scherzer for Cano & Holliday)

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it
And Magnitude if you want to pop pop this into the OP, it was a brief write-up I did on some resources:

A Brief List of Resources
Websites
Fan Graphs has every tiny little statistic that you could want to evaluate a player, and they have several projections. Careful looking at these, however. Oliver, for example, has no basis in actual playing time as they project most of the league for 600 PA. They also have a fantasy section, Rotographs, to help you out.

Rotoworld has literally all the sports transaction and injury news you could need for fantasy sports. It also has fairly good advice attached to the news.

Fantasy Pros aggregates, grades and orders expert advice and projections. It normalizes for weird biases a specific analyst may have.

Podcasts
My preferred medium, as I don't always have time to read through articles. I mainly listen to four podcasts:
CBSSports.com Fantasy Baseball Today is partially entertainment and partially pretty good analysis. One of the main analysts, Al Melchior, was the #2 most accurate in 2013 projections last year. If you ever wondered what that Nando guy from Fantasyland is up to these days, it's this. Their video show also won an award.

ESPN Fantasy Focus Baseball was traditionally the ranting ground for Matthew Berry, but he and co-host Nate Ravitz stepped aside & frequent contributors Eric Karabell & Tristan Cockcroft have taken over. They're still trying to get their legs under them & it doesn't have much direction. They don't have the cohesion & entertainment value of Berry & Ravitz, but they would probably offer you better advice.

Fangraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust is new for me this year, hosted by Eno Sarris & Jason Collette (as of 2014). It offers very in-depth analysis, and is basically the equivalent of reading fangraphs to you. It's very information dense but very worth the time.

MLB.com Fantasy 411 used to be an incredible daily call-in and email show covering fantasy baseball. It became an MLB Network studio show and is now a twice-a-week (in season) podcast. Mike Schiano & Cory Schwartz are old friends & offer a bit of entertainment. Schwartz is MLB VP of Statistics, so they're not light on information to go with their analysis.

tinstaach
Aug 3, 2010

MAGNetic AttITUDE


Spoeank posted:

And Magnitude if you want to pop pop this into the OP, it was a brief write-up I did on some resources:

Aw nuts, I searched for MLB and Fantasy tags and didn't find anything. Clearly this is more work than I did, so in it goes.

uublog
Jul 19, 2012

"World Champions. WORLD FUCKING CHAMPIONS." - Chase Utley, October 31, 2008; Broad Street, Philadelphia, PA
Hahaha it had a poo poo post tag

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Has anyone started to compile a list of guys who will have eligibility at positions, either to start the year or who will gain eligibility quickly due to a position change, that increase their value? Thinking along the lines of Allen Craig two years ago and Matt Carpenter last year as second baseman.

tadashi
Feb 20, 2006

IcePhoenix posted:

Has anyone started to compile a list of guys who will have eligibility at positions, either to start the year or who will gain eligibility quickly due to a position change, that increase their value? Thinking along the lines of Allen Craig two years ago and Matt Carpenter last year as second baseman.
On that note, does it look like the ADP chart here: http://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/adp/overall.php is inconsistent on any eligibility (like is it using current for some players and projected for others)? I don't see anything dramatic that won't show up if you're using an online draft tool (such as EE's third base eligibility). The only thing I notice that might be significant is Manny Machado is a 3B only, but it looks like that's going to be his position unless Hardy gets injured, and Miguel Cabrera is a 3B only but he'll obviously pick up 1B pretty quickly.

tadashi fucked around with this message at 17:13 on Feb 6, 2014

The Pussy Boss
Nov 2, 2004


According to this, Jose Fernandez is the 6th pitcher taken, on average, ahead of Wainwright, Verlander, King Felix... He had a great season, but I'd have a hard time drafting a guy with one MLB season under his belt so high. Then again if he can pitch that well as a 20 yr old...

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IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

The Pussy Boss posted:

According to this, Jose Fernandez is the 6th pitcher taken, on average, ahead of Wainwright, Verlander, King Felix... He had a great season, but I'd have a hard time drafting a guy with one MLB season under his belt so high. Then again if he can pitch that well as a 20 yr old...

Fernandez is in an interesting spot where the risk of taking him and not taking him are both so high, so it's all about trying to decide when the latter outweighs the former. The numbers he put up last year in limited innings were so good, but nobody knows if he can keep them up over more innings or if he'll regress/break.

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