China Economy Megathread

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Rogue0071: Dec 8, 2009; Grey Hunter's next target.

Apparently Russia and China have just signed a massive gas deal.

# ? May 21, 2014 21:59

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# ? Apr 24, 2024 09:56

Arglebargle III: Feb 21, 2006

Medvedev posted:

�One side always wants to sell for a higher price, while the other wants to buy for a lower price,� Medvedev said. �I believe that in the long run, the price will be fair and totally comparable to the price of European supplies.�

Ouch. You can tell the Russians ended up with a lower unit price than they would have liked. The BBC was saying that China is pretty much the only customer for Russia's Siberian gas reserves.

# ? May 22, 2014 08:46

Fojar38: Sep 2, 2011; Sorry I meant to say I hope that the police use maximum force and kill or maim a bunch of innocent people, thus paving a way for a proletarian uprising and socialist utopia

also here's a stupid take
---------------------------->

The Chinese had the Russians by the balls and likely knew it, hence the apparent twisting of said balls.

# ? May 22, 2014 08:50

blueyedevil: Apr 17, 2014

Fojar38 posted:

The Chinese had the Russians by the balls and likely knew it, hence the apparent twisting of said balls.

The price is slightly higher than what China pays for -stan gas but lower than what Russia receives from Europe. Russia was trying to push this deal through as fast as possible because the Kremlin was probably getting a bit nervous about the future relationship with the EU.

# ? May 22, 2014 22:08

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

blueyedevil posted:

The price is slightly higher than what China pays for -stan gas but lower than what Russia receives from Europe. Russia was trying to push this deal through as fast as possible because the Kremlin was probably getting a bit nervous about the future relationship with the EU.

Yeah, it is a compromise, but I don't know if I would call it China twisting "Russia's" balls. The number I heard is around $350 per TCM which is still profitable for the Russians. For clarification, Russia was selling Ukraine gas as around $286 per TCM (which they had to buy).

# ? May 22, 2014 22:13

whatever7: Jul 26, 2001; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

China must have negotiated a decent price. Tsar Putin got China to back them up on the Ukraine issue and Russia didn't say anything about Diaoyu Island/South China sea.

# ? May 23, 2014 03:44

blueyedevil: Apr 17, 2014

Ardennes posted:

Yeah, it is a compromise, but I don't know if I would call it China twisting "Russia's" balls. The number I heard is around $350 per TCM which is still profitable for the Russians. For clarification, Russia was selling Ukraine gas as around $286 per TCM (which they had to buy).

El Mundo is reporting $359/TCM (263 euros at today's conversion rate) via Bloomberg's calculations, compared to the $379/TCM that Europe pays to Moscow

# ? May 23, 2014 04:39

Fojar38: Sep 2, 2011; Sorry I meant to say I hope that the police use maximum force and kill or maim a bunch of innocent people, thus paving a way for a proletarian uprising and socialist utopia

also here's a stupid take
---------------------------->

Did the Chinese actually say that they unequivocally support the Russian position on Ukraine? I hadn't heard about that and sounds like a pretty stark reversal from their neutrality.

# ? May 23, 2014 04:47

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2014/05/26/tycoon-sees-titanic-moment-for-chinas-housing-market/

quote:

China�s once buoyant property market is facing some rough sailing. In fact, according to one tycoon � Soho China Ltd0410.HK -0.32%�s chief Pan Shiyi � the real estate market is looking more like the Titanic headed in the direction of an iceberg.

Mr. Pan, the co-founder and chairman of Soho China Ltd., is taking a very bearish view on the housing market, which has struggled this year. In the first four months of the year, home sales were down 9.9% from the same period a year ago in value terms, official data shows. New construction starts � as calculated by area � were down almost 25% year over year in the same period.

As if that�s not bad enough, demand is also weakening in an expanding number of cities as banks tighten mortgage lending and sales are dampened by widespread expectations of price cuts.

�I think China�s property market is like the Titanic and it will soon hit an iceberg in front of it,� Mr. Pan told a financial forum on Friday, according to the China Business News.

�After hitting the iceberg, the risks will not only be in the real estate sector. The bigger risk will be in the financial sector,� he added.

He said serious problems lie with financial products like trust and wealth management products, as well as entrusted loans that charge higher interest rates than banks and are key financing vehicles for the property sector.

�When housing prices fall 20% to 30%, these problems will be all exposed,� he was quoted as saying.

Soho China declined to comment about Mr. Pan�s remarks. But in a post on his verified Weibo account Monday, Mr. Pan said that during the forum�s question and answer session, he had first asked whether there were any journalists present before replying to a question about the housing market. Only upon being told there were no reporters present, he said, did he proceed to answer.

�I didn�t expect there are countless reporters hiding [in the audience],� he said.

Soho has been putting at least some of its money where Mr. Pan�s mouth is � that is, by taking it out of the local property market.

In February, Soho China, run by Mr. Pan and his wife Zhang Xin, announced plans to sell all of their interest in Soho Hailun Plaza and Soho Jing�an Plaza in Shanghai for about 5.23 billion yuan ($853 million) to Financial Street Holdings, a Shenzhen-listed property developer.

It isn�t all bad news though for China�s property market, and help may be on the way.

The central bank has instructed commercial banks to make mortgage lending a priority. Likewise, some local governments have taken steps to ease their curbs on home purchases, which were put in place when prices seemed to be soaring out of reach for most of China�s 1.3 billion people. They�ve also eased restrictions on residency requirements and in some cases have rolled back curbs on buying a second or third home.

But these measures have been relatively modest so far and Beijing has not given the market a clear signal it can go back to its old speculative ways.

Though Mr. Pan didn�t comment on the government�s moves to soften property curbs, he did say he believes many forces � including plans for a nationwide property registry, an expanded use of the property tax and more land for development as a result of rural land reform � will help drive the market lower.

�I am not optimistic about China�s property prices,� he said.

If a property specialist like Mr. Pan thinks the market is close to a Titantic moment, perhaps it�s a good idea for buyers to stay close to the life boats.

# ? May 26, 2014 16:42

Fangz: Jul 5, 2007; Oh I see! This must be the Bad Opinion Zone!

Cultural Imperial posted:

http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2014/05/26/tycoon-sees-titanic-moment-for-chinas-housing-market/

Putting that little share price change tag next to the guy's company name doesn't do much for his credibility though.

# ? May 26, 2014 21:28

ocrumsprug: Sep 23, 2010; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Fangz posted:

Putting that little share price change tag next to the guy's company name doesn't do much for his credibility though.

That was probably a copy paste from the original, listing the ticker and stock price of the company mentioned in an online article is pretty common.

# ? May 26, 2014 21:51

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/cf5e...l#axzz32n7JGMqG

quote:

China�s slowing economy, a crackdown on corruption, and the rise of online shopping are increasingly eating into earnings for the country�s traditional retailers � hitting sales at bricks and mortar stores such as shoe shops and supermarkets.
Footwear chain Belle International and supermarket operator China Resources Enterprise both blamed weak consumer sentiment and a drop-off in economic growth as they reported sluggish earnings this week.

�With the economy continuing its structural rebalancing and slower growth becoming the new normal, consumer confidence has been low and consumer sentiment weak�, Belle said in a statement to the Hong Kong stock exchange.
The company, which has more than 20,000 outlets across China, is a key distributor for western sports brands such as Nike, Adidas and Puma. Revenues at its footwear business grew 5 per cent in the 14 months through February, which the company said was �significantly lower than prior years�.

China Resources Enterprise, which has agreed to fold Tesco�s Chinese retail operations into a joint venture, also highlighted a crackdown on lavish spending by the central government in its first-quarter earnings report.
�During the period under review, China�s retail market recorded slower growth due to continuous pressure from the slowdown in domestic macroeconomic growth,� the company said. �The central government strictly enforced frugality that affected the sales of certain high-value commodities.� Profit at the group�s retail business dropped more than 10 per cent year-on-year to HK$471m.

Shares in Belle fell 1.6 per cent to HK$8.11 while CRE was down 2.2 per cent at HK$22.45 midday on Tuesday in Hong Kong.

China�s economic slowdown and government-directed austerity drive have weighed on corporate earnings across the globe. Earlier this year, drinks makers Pernod Ricard, Remy Cointreau and Diageo all pointed to falling sales in China as they reported disappointing earnings.

China�s drive to cut lavish spending by government officials also prompted some five-star hotels to seek a rating downgrade in order to skirt new rules on where civil servants could stay while on trips.
�The anti-corruption campaign has significantly affected the order flows for consumption goods from the state-owned enterprises and government bodies,� Dong Tao, analyst at Credit Suisse, wrote in a recent report on weak sales over the Chinese New Year holiday.

Shaun Rein, head of China Market Research, said: �From a consumer confidence point of view, this is the worst I have seen it in my 17 years in China. Consumers are concerned about wage growth and rising housing prices so they are cutting back on spending. They are moving away from shoes and apparel but spending it on experiences, such as tourism and movies.�

Beijing is seeking to rebalance its economy away from a long-held reliance on investment spending and property in favour of more consumption-led growth. However, the initial impact has been to crimp appetite from consumers to spend.

�The macroeconomic outlook for the next two years is not optimistic. The consumer retail market is expected to be under continued pressure due to weak consumer sentiment,� Belle said. �A �new normal� state of lower growth is here to stay.�

I find it hilarious that anti-corruption crack downs are affecting negative growth.

# ? May 27, 2014 06:08

Pimpmust: Oct 1, 2008

I like how they use the Titanic metaphor to say they "are about to" hit an iceberg (and could somehow avoid it?) One more gets the impression that they've already ran straight over the iceberg, circled around, and hit it again.

# ? May 27, 2014 06:28

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

blueyedevil posted:

The price is slightly higher than what China pays for -stan gas but lower than what Russia receives from Europe. Russia was trying to push this deal through as fast as possible because the Kremlin was probably getting a bit nervous about the future relationship with the EU.

Yeah given their dependence on energy exports it made sense to hedge their bets against future troubles with the EU/USA over Ukraine.

# ? May 27, 2014 18:00

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2014/06/01/china-in-deflationary-spiral-new-stimulus-looks-ineffective/

quote:

The latest price data for China shows the economy has entered a period of deflation, a situation sharply at odds with the official claim of growth in the high single digits. Robust growth, especially over long periods of time, is almost always associated with high inflation.

The National Bureau of Statistics announced that the consumer price index for April increased by 1.8% year-on-year, well below the target of 3.5%, while the producer price index, measuring factory gate prices, declined 2.0%.

China is clearly in a period of falling prices. Not only is the decline in the PPI in excess of the increase in the CPI, the increasing CPI measures a much smaller portion of the economy�consumption is about 35% to 36% of gross domestic product�than the declining PPI�manufacturing was pegged at 44.9% of GDP in Q1.

Beijing�s consumer price data has often been criticized as underestimating inflation, but that does not appear to be the case now. The real �tell� is the import number. In April, imports were up an anemic 0.8% from the same month in 2013. The number would have been negative had there not been significant stockpiling of oil, copper, and other commodities. Because consumption was weak, it is unlikely that Beijing�s CPI increase for April was understated to any significant degree.

And what are the prospects for the future? Capital Economics says the fall in vegetable inflation �is likely to be short-lived� and suggests we need not worry about weak prices, but weak prices may be reflective of long-term trends. As Anne Stevenson-Yang of J Capital Research in Beijing pointed out in an April 28 note, food consumption in China last year was flat to negative in almost all categories.

Since then, growth has evidently slowed, and this suggests food consumption will not push prices upward. Moreover, residential property price declines, evident throughout the country except the big coastal cities, are bound to depress the CPI for some time. In short, there will be little or no upward push on the CPI.

As for manufacturing, April was the 26th-consecutive month of falling factory gate prices. Capital Economics says the declining PPI is the result of �weakness in global commodity prices rather than industry-wide overcapacity.� That could be true, but the fall in commodity prices is largely the result of the weakness in China.

Manufacturing is obviously going through a bad patch. May will probably end up as the fifth-straight month of contraction in the HSBC Purchasing Managers� Index. That�s not a good sign because factories are normally running at full tilt during the month. This year, the economy is showing no great bounce after the country�s long Lunar New Year break. The skid in construction starts in the first four months of this year, for instance, will eventually take its toll on output as builders need substantially less cement, steel, and wallboard. Therefore, in coming months we should not expect upward price pull from busy factories.

So what are Beijing�s planners doing to prevent a period of soft prices from becoming a deflationary death spiral? At the moment, they have evidently abandoned any plans they had for structural reform because reform of that sort would substantially depress economic output. Now, they have evidently opted for another round of Chinese-style pump-priming, this time along the lines of the �mini-stimulus� announced by Premier Li Keqiang on April 2.

Now, stimulative measures are being put in place in piecemeal fashion without fanfare. Most notable is the May 28 order of the Finance Ministry to local governments to accelerate spending, including a directive to frontload payments. Localities that don�t disburse fast enough risk losing funds already budgeted for this year.

On top of this, the People�s Bank of China is about to inject 400 billion yuan to fund infrastructure by engaging in its own version of quantitative easing, buying government bonds. On Friday, the State Council announced it would continue the easing of monetary policy by cutting reserve requirements for banks lending to the agricultural and small-business sectors. This move is in addition to a similar cut in the reserve requirement, announced in April, for rural banks.

Some analysts believe Premier Li�s April measures are already having an effect, and they could be right. After all, the Flash HSBC PMI for May shows that manufacturing contracted at a slower pace last month. The preliminary indicator zoomed up to 49.7 from April�s final reading of 48.1. Moreover, today the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the official manufacturing PMI for last month rose to 50.8 from April�s 50.4, indicating an accelerated recovery.

Premier Li should be smiling that not all the preliminary indicators for May are pointing down because his options are now severely limited. He may have the cash to fund a super-sized stimulus, but he cannot spend it without aggravating the already dangerous condition of the banks and without making the impending debt crisis larger still. There are only so many more �ghost cities� and �high-speed rail lines to nowhere� his government can build. The most Li can do, as a practical matter, is to continue implementing a raft of small measures and hope for the best. Small measures, however, do not appear adequate in the face of the forces driving down growth this decade.

If his small measures do not in fact work, we will inevitably see both the CPI and PPI continue to deteriorate. Deflation kills economies, and China looks like it has entered a period of continuously sliding prices.

# ? Jun 1, 2014 20:31

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

As far as Chinese GDP and GDP growth, it is pretty difficult to believe official figures since they are so politicized. China could very well be in a recession now and it wouldn't ever show up.

# ? Jun 1, 2014 22:53

Helsing: Aug 23, 2003; DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU JOE BIDEN

So based on this thread the Chinese property market has been experiencing a massive bubble that is now popping, sending ripples through the extensive shadow banking system and possibly triggering a deflationary spiral. If history is any guide then this would indicate a period of serious pain for the Chinese economy.

On the other hand China's development is still driven by exports rather than domestic consumption like in the United States. So what happens to all those export oriented factories? Are they taken down by a collapse in the credit system? Or can they keep chugging along while other parts of the economy collapse?

# ? Jun 2, 2014 01:38

TheBalor: Jun 18, 2001

They might not be safe, but it's hard to tell. A part of the shadow banking industry is shady loans between companies, with big banks acting as go-betweens. A lot depends on who's exposed and where, because if those healthy export-oriented companies have massive loans given out to teetering real estate companies, things could get really lovely for everyone.

# ? Jun 2, 2014 01:53

FrozenVent: May 1, 2009; The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.

Export companies might not get paid on order. They get the order, go to their bank with the order, get credit, use that credit to pay for raw materials, employees and what not, produce, ship, get paid, repay the bank.

If the bank is no longer around to give you credit... You need customers who pay upfront, so you need customers who have access to credit. Even if that customer is in a country with a solid economy, when they go to their bank and go "I need a loan in RMB so I can pay this Chinese company in advance to produce some widgets...", if the Chinese economy is shitfucked...

Credit isn't just mortgages and credit cards, it's an important part of international trade.

# ? Jun 2, 2014 01:57

whatever7: Jul 26, 2001; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Did you guys read the article Cultural Imperial posted? China is doing another round of mini-stimulus package. I know alot of people in China are waiting for the property price drop so they can finally afford an apartment.

# ? Jun 2, 2014 04:15

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

whatever7 posted:

Did you guys read the article Cultural Imperial posted? China is doing another round of mini-stimulus package. I know alot of people in China are waiting for the property price drop so they can finally afford an apartment.

Yeah but do you think that's going to be enough? If the chinese economy is really in free fall, your friends are going to be playing catch-the-falling-knife.

# ? Jun 2, 2014 06:22

GlassEye-Boy: Jul 12, 2001

Cultural Imperial posted:

Yeah but do you think that's going to be enough? If the chinese economy is really in free fall, your friends are going to be playing catch-the-falling-knife.

Gordan Chang comes out with a China is on the edge of collapse article every couple of months. Who knows maybe one of these days he'll be right.

# ? Jun 2, 2014 18:36

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

GlassEye-Boy posted:

Gordan Chang comes out with a China is on the edge of collapse article every couple of months. Who knows maybe one of these days he'll be right.

It looks like he is slowly but surely getting closer.

# ? Jun 2, 2014 18:43

whatever7: Jul 26, 2001; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Cultural Imperial posted:

Yeah but do you think that's going to be enough? If the chinese economy is really in free fall, your friends are going to be playing catch-the-falling-knife.

Only time the property price legit drop in the last (15 years?) was in the later half of 2008. I remember some people even gave up on their mortgages because the apartment price on the market was actually lower than their mortgaged amount.

Soon afterward the property price sprung back to getting higher and higher. Many people regretted that they didn't buy an apartment at the time.

# ? Jun 2, 2014 19:46

wateroverfire: Jul 3, 2010

FrozenVent posted:

Export companies might not get paid on order. They get the order, go to their bank with the order, get credit, use that credit to pay for raw materials, employees and what not, produce, ship, get paid, repay the bank.

If the bank is no longer around to give you credit... You need customers who pay upfront, so you need customers who have access to credit.

Chinese export companies in my field at least don't extend credit. Terms are a chunk up front and a chunk before you get your documents, paid in USD.

# ? Jun 2, 2014 20:52

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSS7N0MG03P20140603?irpc=932

PMI is up to a four month high. Maybe China isn't sliding into oblivion.

# ? Jun 3, 2014 07:57

dilbertschalter: Jan 12, 2010

Cultural Imperial posted:

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSS7N0MG03P20140603?irpc=932

PMI is up to a four month high. Maybe China isn't sliding into oblivion.

rip gordon chang, until next month.

# ? Jun 3, 2014 08:26

icantfindaname: Jul 1, 2008

So just how fundamental to China's economy is corruption? My impression so far is that local party politicians have their fingers in the economy down to the very basic level, and interfere freely, if not extremely heavily, in order to enrich themselves and curry political favor.

Assuming that's the case, the question is then whether this is sustainable in the sense that it can coexist with healthy economic growth? Or is it slowly veering China's economy off track with perverse incentives to the point where growth will slow down and stop? Is this one of those questions where nobody really knows the answer and we'll just have to wait and see?

icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 02:52 on Jun 4, 2014

# ? Jun 4, 2014 02:44

computer parts: Nov 18, 2010; PLEASE CLAP

icantfindaname posted:

So just how fundamental to China's economy is corruption? My impression so far is that local party politicians have their fingers in essentially all levels of the economy, and basically interfere in order to enrich themselves and curry political favor. Is this sustainable in the sense that it can coexist with healthy economic growth or is it slowly veering China's economy off track with perverse incentives? Is this one of those questions where nobody really knows the answer and you just have to wait and find out?

It seems about normal with how most developing countries act (albeit at a different scale). Back in the late 19th Century one of the most powerful positions in the US government was the Collector of the Port of New York, because he was the guy that collected the tariffs on goods going through the New York harbor.

Corruption as you define it is probably not conductive to government policy but for economics I would say there are probably worse evils. It probably hurts the people worse than the businesses, but that's always true.

# ? Jun 4, 2014 02:49

whatever7: Jul 26, 2001; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

icantfindaname posted:

So just how fundamental to China's economy is corruption? My impression so far is that local party politicians have their fingers in the economy down to the very basic level, and interfere freely, if not extremely heavily, in order to enrich themselves and curry political favor.

Assuming that's the case, the question is then whether this is sustainable in the sense that it can coexist with healthy economic growth? Or is it slowly veering China's economy off track with perverse incentives to the point where growth will slow down and stop? Is this one of those questions where nobody really knows the answer and we'll just have to wait and see?

I understand this is how it work: (I am completely pulling out of my rear end so bare with me here)

In the Communist party system hierarchy, its complete fractional. You have to take side as soon as you have a half way serious position in the party. That's how you advance you political career.

And the party cadres who has the largest corruptions are usually the city level vice mayor, or mayor himself since secretary of the party committee is usually the more powerful position. The police chiefs who fall for corruption charges are almost always the vise police chief. The way the corruption work is that the main guy never touch the money himself. Its always the vice whatever guy that does the dirty work. You need to get work done you need to build something you always have to spend tons to money to get the government approval. The money will get distributed to the whole party hierarchy in the whole district. Of course you have to make sure you spend the money on the right fraction, because if you bet on the wrong horse when the Beijing protection falls, a whole bunch of people under the big man all fall for various corruption charges as well. Almost everyone is dirty, because that's how you get eanything done in China, so its not hard to find actual corruption charge to bring against you.

And I am speaking this as a cultural thing, in China alot of times you have to grease the palms to get things done. For example, undergo surgery in the hospital you are expected to give red pockets to all the doctors and nurse involved. You don't have to pay it but most people who go in for surgeries usually do. This is just one example, the whole political system is like that, times 10. There are so many governmental bureaus that can put a stop on the project you are working on its petty much impossible to get anything done through the clean and official channel.

Now if you want to know if this system is fair, and encourage competition. I don't know. Personally I have always thought Taiwan has just as much corruption, going by the things I read on the Taiwanese newspaper. But it didn't stop it from becoming a developed country. From an economic angle as long as there are no large number of party cadres cash out the money and run out of China, the money is still in China. It will get back to the economic one way or the other.

If you are in a big city, go to university, graduate with a decent grade and go work for a foreign company, you actually don't have to deal with any corruption on the personal level. Maybe a couple red pockets to the kitdergarden techers and thats it.

Now in regard to the anti corruption mechanism, there are always various bureaus. Rich people/entrepreneurs actually don't have a lot of power in China. It's no different from Russia. There are very few out spoken rich people in China. Alot of the people's business success are heavily tied to the regional party cadres they are aligning with. The party know all about your dirt. As soon as the protection umbrella in Beijing fall or retire, you are very well will be the next one to go.

The moment the man above decide to close the net on a party official is called 双规（double required, it stands for "required time, required location".) A couple of guys from the Discipline Inspection Commission will sudden show up unannounced. You are brought to a heavily guarded little mansion, in "required location, required time" write down all your deeds in a specific corruption investigation. The unspoken rule is that anything else you write down about a comrade for different issues that's not being investigated won't be prosecuted, for now. There is no communication with your friends and family. They will watch you and make sure you don't kill yourself too. The "double required" procedure is a party internal investigation mechanism, its only used for party officials.

As you can see, the corruption in the provincial level is more likely a "secretly sanctioned corruption" as oppose to "unsanctioned corruption". I don't think anybody will ever figure out how much negative impact it has on the country. I would like to know if there is a meta way to measure it too.

# ? Jun 4, 2014 04:37

blueyedevil: Apr 17, 2014

How much do these provincial politicians and bureaucrats generally get paid? I know throughout modern history their wages were basically unlivable.

# ? Jun 4, 2014 05:44

TheBalor: Jun 18, 2001

blueyedevil posted:

How much do these provincial politicians and bureaucrats generally get paid? I know throughout modern history their wages were basically unlivable.

IIRC, Bo Xilai's salary (before he got ganked, anyway) was something absurd like $20,000 a year. This, for a man whose family assets can be enumerated in billions.

The people who get really hosed are the lowest level bureaucrats. They get paid wages even lower than the above, and they really don't have the ability to BE corrupt. There was an article about them a few months back, and they interviewed a guy who had spent the last few years of his life working 8 am to 8 pm every day for peanuts, with no promotion in sight.

TheBalor fucked around with this message at 05:52 on Jun 4, 2014

# ? Jun 4, 2014 05:50

illrepute: Dec 30, 2009; by XyloJW

Has there been any analysis of the proposed emission limits China will be imposing?

# ? Jun 6, 2014 20:40

Daduzi: Nov 22, 2005; You can't hide from the Grim Reaper. Especially when he's got a gun.

Helsing posted:

On the other hand China's development is still driven by exports rather than domestic consumption like in the United States. So what happens to all those export oriented factories? Are they taken down by a collapse in the credit system? Or can they keep chugging along while other parts of the economy collapse?

From what I'm hearing from people in industry and finance right now exports aren't too healthy either. It's all anecdotal, I know, but I'm hearing pretty consistently from a range of sources that they're at best stagnant and possibly declining.

# ? Jun 8, 2014 12:16

FrozenVent: May 1, 2009; The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.

CNN posted:

In the latest move in China's anti-corruption campaign, more than 1,000 people in Guangdong Province have been marked as "naked officials" -- those suspected of storing graft gains with overseas family members.

According to Chinese state media, Xinhua news agency, an unnamed official source says 866 of the implicated officials have been removed from their posts, including nine at a mayoral level. Another 200 have asked their families to return to China, in exchange for keeping their posts.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/06/09/world/asia/china-naked-officials/index.html

Not that it means much of anything on a grander scale, but hey, at least they're pretending to do something about it.

# ? Jun 9, 2014 14:49

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-06/china-s-property-developers-face-record-wave-of-maturing-debt.html

quote:

Chinese property developers face a record surge in maturing debt next year, as the country�s banking regulator says it�s monitoring risks from the cooling real-estate market.

The amount of dollar-denominated bonds that must be repaid in 2015 will jump to $2.83 billion, the most in data compiled by Bloomberg going back to 1993. Most Chinese builders listed on the mainland or in Hong Kong are behind fiscal-year sales targets and achieved less than 33 percent of their target in the first four months, analysis based on Bloomberg data show.

The China Banking Regulatory Commission will monitor the financial and cash-flow conditions of developers, and will support first-time homebuyers� borrowing needs, Vice Chairman Wang Zhaoxing said at a briefing in Beijing today. Moody�s Investors Service revised its credit outlook for Chinese builders to negative in May after home sales slumped 10 percent in the first four months.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang must balance efforts to staunch off-balance sheet lending known as shadow banking, which has been a key source of funding for many smaller property firms, while preventing widespread debt defaults. The March collapse of closely held developer Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. fueled speculation a shakeout among the nation�s almost 90,000 real estate companies could follow.

While the large, top-rated developers will be able to cope with their refinancing needs, smaller peers with ratings below B3 or Caa will face greater pressure, Franco Leung, an analyst with Moody�s, said in an interview yesterday.

�Smaller developers that have weak access to onshore bank loan financing and high trust-loan exposure, they would be most vulnerable,� he said.

Chinese builders raised 49 percent less through trusts last quarter as the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun highlighted default risks.

Issuance of property-related trusts, which target wealthy investors, slid to 50.7 billion yuan ($8.1 billion) in the first quarter from 99.7 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, data compiled by Use Trust show.

# ? Jun 9, 2014 14:51

whatever7: Jul 26, 2001; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

FrozenVent posted:

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/06/09/world/asia/china-naked-officials/index.html

Not that it means much of anything on a grander scale, but hey, at least they're pretending to do something about it.

I read the news earlier. At least they try to keep the corruption money inside China. Also, 3/4 of the "naked officials" rather lost their jobs then get their spouses back to China, I guess they have funneled the dirty money out of China already.

# ? Jun 9, 2014 20:15

dilbertschalter: Jan 12, 2010

FrozenVent posted:

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/06/09/world/asia/china-naked-officials/index.html

Not that it means much of anything on a grander scale, but hey, at least they're pretending to do something about it.

Honestly, I can't even be positive about that. You can enact sumptuary laws, arrest 100 umpteen corrupt officials, execute 100 billion of them and so on, but as long as the legal system is a joke and connections are needed to get anything done the problem won't be solved. Anti-corruption campaigns have been going on for ages and they've always been wildly ineffective.

dilbertschalter fucked around with this message at 14:51 on Jun 10, 2014

# ? Jun 10, 2014 14:48

TheBalor: Jun 18, 2001

Has there ever been a government as undemocratic as China, and even a 20th of its size, that wasn't also wildly corrupt? It seems like an inherent feature of regimes controlled by an autocratic in-group, whether it's El Presidente's family or the Communist Party.

# ? Jun 10, 2014 15:08

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# ? Apr 24, 2024 09:56

FizFashizzle: Mar 30, 2005

TheBalor posted:

Has there ever been a government as undemocratic as China, and even a 20th of its size, that wasn't also wildly corrupt? It seems like an inherent feature of regimes controlled by an autocratic in-group, whether it's El Presidente's family or the Communist Party.

India and it's not close, unless a sizable number of Party members in china are being investigated for murder and kidnapping on top of graft.

And in India you don't even have the benefit of competency!

# ? Jun 10, 2014 15:17

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