|
This is just my personal speculation but I think the issue has to be more with the new rules around draft picks, signing bonuses, and international signings than about the draft pick compensation itself. There's been draft pick compensation tied to free agents for a long time, the qualifying offer system is different but pretty sure Stephen Drew still would have been at least Type B under the old rules. It seems to me that early round draft picks are worth a lot more than they used to be. Teams are now restricted from signing all of the international free agents they can scout. No team has ever been willing to waste their early round picks on players who would refuse to sign, and now that there are set slotted signing bonuses, it's much more likely that a player might decline to sign in hopes of a better slot and bigger bonus the next season. As a result, your high draft picks are just a much more valuable and irreplacable resource for adding young talent to your team than they used to be.
|
#
?
Mar 20, 2014 19:29
|
|
|
|
| # ? Apr 24, 2024 08:48 |
|
|
Yes, just having the pick itself now has intrinsic value, because teams now have a maximum amount of money they can spend on draft picks, based on the number and slotting. If you lose a 1st round pick, you lose the ability to spend that money on the draft.
|
|
#
?
Mar 20, 2014 20:05
|
|
|
Tharizdun posted:If you're looking for a place to crush inefficiency, it's wasting money on Brien Tayler, Todd Van Poppel and Allan Dykstra. Brien Taylor busted out for non-baseball reasons and was a 1-1 pick, he isn't comparable to the other two. If you're looking for an actual inefficient money-wasting 1-1 pick it's Matt Bush, not Taylor.
|
|
#
?
Mar 20, 2014 21:07
|
|
|
leokitty posted:Brien Taylor busted out for non-baseball reasons and was a 1-1 pick, he isn't comparable to the other two. If you're looking for an actual inefficient money-wasting 1-1 pick it's Matt Bush, not Taylor. Well, yikes. Wikipedia posted:After retiring, Taylor moved to Raleigh, North Carolina and worked as a UPS package handler and later a beer distributor. He is the father of five daughters. By 2006, he had moved back home and was working as a bricklayer with his father.
|
|
#
?
Mar 20, 2014 21:16
|
|
|
leokitty posted:Brien Taylor busted out for non-baseball reasons and was a 1-1 pick, he isn't comparable to the other two. If you're looking for an actual inefficient money-wasting 1-1 pick it's Matt Bush, not Taylor. While you're here, do you remember people being down on Jacob Turner before he was traded to the Marlins in 2012? I thought most people around here thought something was very wrong with him (as demonstrated by his walking a lot of people and not striking out a lot of guys in AAA that season) but someone is trying to convince me people still thought of him as a top 20 prospect. I can't find a lot of coverage on him other than a Callis chat where he was still high on him in early June of that season.
|
|
#
?
Mar 20, 2014 21:17
|
|
|
tadashi posted:While you're here, do you remember people being down on Jacob Turner before he was traded to the Marlins in 2012? I thought most people around here thought something was very wrong with him (as demonstrated by his walking a lot of people and not striking out a lot of guys in AAA that season) but someone is trying to convince me people still thought of him as a top 20 prospect. I can't find a lot of coverage on him other than a Callis chat where he was still high on him in early June of that season. Baseball-Reference minor-league pages collect top-100 rankings from several sources. For Jacob Turner they show him with the following rankings prior to 2012: Baseball America #22, MLB.com #15, Baseball Prospectus #15. Is that what your friend is talking about, or are they specifically claiming he hadn't fallen at all between preseason and the trade? Tharizdun posted:Why are teams so terrified of losing a pick by signing a free agent. I can think of so many 1st-rounders who NEVER make the Show, or only as an innings-eater middle reliever, after sucking up endless signing bonuses. Meanwhile, once the BBWAA gets its head out of its rear end, a nepotism signing in the 63rd round will be in the Hall of Fame. The new CBA made it no longer possible to plow a lot of money into the draft or Latin America in order to build a team on the cheap. But free agency remained out of control, and many teams are not able to seriously bid on top players. So we have seen a dramatic rise in teams signing existing young players to extensions. But this feeds back into the free agent market, as good players will hit the market later in their career; with scarcer talent on the market, not to mention the insane TV money bubble, we've seen an explosion in the cost of even mediocre players. Which once again makes it more desirable to lock up your young players before they hit the market and prices balloon, and it's a vicious cycle. Escaping from this cycle requires a steady stream of talent from the draft, so teams are loath to give up a pick for just a year or two of a veteran. You're also seriously underrating the value of a first-round pick. Sure, a fair number of them never make it to the Bigs, but those that do are giving you 6+ years of production for below-market rates. You're categorically wrong to claim "endless signing bonuses": the #20 pick last season was signed for $2M, which doesn't begin to make up for the value he'll give back if he makes the Majors. Hence why the #20 pick was recently valued at approximately $23M. It's obvious that nobody is going to sign for $23M less than their true value just because of draft pick compensation, so it should be obvious why players with compensation attached have a tough time.
|
|
#
?
Mar 20, 2014 21:48
|
|
|
tadashi posted:While you're here, do you remember people being down on Jacob Turner before he was traded to the Marlins in 2012? I thought most people around here thought something was very wrong with him (as demonstrated by his walking a lot of people and not striking out a lot of guys in AAA that season) but someone is trying to convince me people still thought of him as a top 20 prospect. I can't find a lot of coverage on him other than a Callis chat where he was still high on him in early June of that season. I remember some of his shine wearing off, but I can't remember why. Maybe some people were starting to realize the curveball wasn't coming around? I'll have to dig when I get home from work.
|
|
#
?
Mar 20, 2014 21:56
|
|
|
One hit in the draft can provide tens of millions of dollars of surplus value for next to nothing. I go to my team, where Chris Sale was a #13 pick in 2010 and has since provided somewhere north of 15 WAR for a couple mil total over 4 years (two spent in the bullpen). He's been extended through age 30 on an insanely team-friendly contract. You can't get that kind of value through free agency. e. Jesus that contract is so insanely team-friendly barring injury. AAV around like $10M through age 30. Wow.
|
|
#
?
Mar 20, 2014 21:58
|
|
|
Mornacale posted:Baseball-Reference minor-league pages collect top-100 rankings from several sources. For Jacob Turner they show him with the following rankings prior to 2012: Baseball America #22, MLB.com #15, Baseball Prospectus #15. Is that what your friend is talking about, or are they specifically claiming he hadn't fallen at all between preseason and the trade? They didn't think anybody saw it coming when Turner wasn't very good for the Marlins (I mean he's still very young). I recall people viewing Turner very differently at the trade deadline from the pre-season rankings. At least there seemed to be a lot of concern and there seemed to be a perception that his ceiling had fallen a lot.
|
|
#
?
Mar 20, 2014 22:16
|
|
|
leokitty posted:I remember some of his shine wearing off, but I can't remember why. Maybe some people were starting to realize the curveball wasn't coming around? I'll have to dig when I get home from work. I asked around and it was basically what I remembered, he got rushed in that weird Detroit developmental style and turned into a fastball only guy. His fastball was/is good but not good enough.
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2014 00:36
|
|
|
Does anyone have any good suggestions for a baseball podcast? Weekly roundup would be best for me; I don't need hours of daily recap, just stuff about players and league news and such.
|
|
#
?
Mar 24, 2014 21:38
|
|
|
Is there a recommended primer website or article for getting your feet wet in baseball? Beyond hit-balls-and-run, I don't know anything about strategy, why throw this pitch at this time, what this stat means, etc.
|
|
|
#
?
Mar 25, 2014 15:32
|
|
|
reflex posted:Is there a recommended primer website or article for getting your feet wet in baseball? Beyond hit-balls-and-run, I don't know anything about strategy, why throw this pitch at this time, what this stat means, etc. Funnily enough, just googling "baseball strategy" turned up this site: http://armchairgm.wikia.com/Baseball_Strategy:Guide_to_Smart_Baseball. It has a couple holes (pages that haven't been filled out) but it seems to have a good understanding of conventional vs. modern wisdom on everything from bunting to base-running to bullpen use and batting construction. It's a wiki page so don't take anything as absolute but I think it's a good start. "Modern" strategy, or statistically based strategy, basically says that efficiency is the key to success (don't do risky things unless you're using players who have a really high success rate at what they're attempting) and anything that willingly sacrifices outs or allows the other team to get free base-runners is risky except in specific circumstances (usually late in the game). There are very few mangers who don't use traditional tactics, though. tadashi fucked around with this message at 15:45 on Mar 25, 2014 |
|
#
?
Mar 25, 2014 15:42
|
|
|
reflex posted:Is there a recommended primer website or article for getting your feet wet in baseball? Beyond hit-balls-and-run, I don't know anything about strategy, why throw this pitch at this time, what this stat means, etc. A lot of advanced baseball strategy can be boiled down to the fact that 27 outs are all you get, and players on offense who don't make outs (on-base percentage) is the most valuable thing a player can do. Also, it is good to hit dingers. For baseball traditionalists, this very simple notion is voodoo computer nonsense. Another modern notion that flummoxes old-school baseball people is that many people don't think it is very useful to intentionally throw baseballs at someone's head because they ran around the bases too slowly after a mighty ding shot.
|
|
#
?
Mar 25, 2014 19:57
|
|
|
reflex posted:Is there a recommended primer website or article for getting your feet wet in baseball? Beyond hit-balls-and-run, I don't know anything about strategy, why throw this pitch at this time, what this stat means, etc. The fastest way I learned was actually asking questions on here. -Most strategy these days is pretty simple: put the best 9 hitters in the batting order every day (or as much as you can), and get the best 9 fielders possible. Strategies like hit and run and bunting have been proven to be unsuccessful in the long run. Being smart about relief pitching is about the most control a manager should execute while on the field. -Pitch sequencing, which is what you're describing, is a thing, though almost everyone who knows about it is a pitching coach, pitcher, or catcher. Most players/coaches don't talk about it because, well, you can guess, but the majority of it is that pitchers have to use their best pitches the most and their worst pitches only to keep batters on their heels. You can judge for yourself based on fangraph's pitch use pages, though they sometimes (see: often) misidentify pitches. If you're asking specifically what works after which pitch, it depends a lot on the types of pitches available and if the pitcher can locate his pitches. This all goes into scouting, so if you want to know more, ask more! 
|
|
#
?
Mar 25, 2014 21:19
|
|
|
A big part of pitch sequencing is being unpredictable. If a hitter knows what pitch to expect next, there's a much better chance he's going to crush it.
|
|
#
?
Mar 25, 2014 22:47
|
|
|
bawfuls posted:A big part of pitch sequencing is being unpredictable. If a hitter knows what pitch to expect next, there's a much better chance he's going to crush it. This is pretty much what it comes to. Pitchers try to make every pitch they throw look the same when it leaves their hand. If a pitcher moves his arm obviously slower when throwing a changeup for example a batter will be able to tell what it is and react accordingly. The less time a hitter has to react and figure out what the pitch coming at him is going to do, the harder it is for him to get on top of it. A huge component of hitting is timing, if you can ruin a hitters timing you've got him pretty well handled. Falling into an obvious pattern is also a bad idea. If a pitcher only has one or two good pitches, he probably wont be able to fool hitters for more than an inning or two. Mariano Rivera was the best closing pitcher in the game, but he basically only threw one pitch. He probably wouldn't be able to pitch 5+ innings with just his cutter, no matter how good it was. There are good pitches, bad pitches, elite pitches etc. But if a hitter can easily recognize the pitch coming at him is a curveball, he may be more likely to just let it go and increase his chance of seeing a fastball later.
|
|
#
?
Mar 26, 2014 00:01
|
|
|
I thought he was talking about if there's some set rule for types of pitches, i.e. never throw two fastballs in a row, but I don't know. All good, useful info, though
|
|
#
?
Mar 26, 2014 01:36
|
|
|
Drunk Tomato posted:Does anyone have any good suggestions for a baseball podcast? Weekly roundup would be best for me; I don't need hours of daily recap, just stuff about players and league news and such. Your best bet just for just general news is probably ESPN Baseball Tonight with Buster Olney. It's a daily podcast rather than weekly but the episodes are usually around 30-40 mins and tend to cover specific issues rather than game recaps. I listen to a lot of podcasts so I listen at 2x speed, which makes them really easy to blast through. I don't really know of any weekly podcasts that cover similar territory, those all tend to be a little more specialized.
|
|
#
?
Mar 26, 2014 03:11
|
|
|
How many decades until everyone in the Mariners' front office is dead and I can pretend to have hope again 2013 we managed to kill one of them, only a few left
|
|
|
#
?
Mar 26, 2014 10:52
|
|
|
wheez the roux posted:How many decades until everyone in the Mariners' front office is dead and I can pretend to have hope again Unfortunately for Mariner fans the guy who was pushed out in 2013, Tony Blengino, was probably part of the solution and not part of the problem. He's pretty well respected in the stats community as far as front office people go.
|
|
#
?
Mar 26, 2014 13:48
|
|
|
What are a few good things to know in order to participate in/follow a friendly discussion about the Reds with Reds fans this season?
|
|
#
?
Mar 26, 2014 16:22
|
|
|
Knockknees posted:What are a few good things to know in order to participate in/follow a friendly discussion about the Reds with Reds fans this season? Joey Votto is a very very good baseball player. He is super patient at the plate, has led the league in walks a couple times, and is a good defensive first baseman to boot.
|
|
#
?
Mar 26, 2014 17:14
|
|
|
Knockknees posted:What are a few good things to know in order to participate in/follow a friendly discussion about the Reds with Reds fans this season? Billy Hamilton has 200 batting gloves: one for every base he's going to steal.
|
|
#
?
Mar 26, 2014 19:58
|
|
|
Knockknees posted:What are a few good things to know in order to participate in/follow a friendly discussion about the Reds with Reds fans this season? You will need to form an opinion as to the appropriateness of spaghetti noodles in chili.
|
|
#
?
Mar 26, 2014 20:00
|
|
|
The Midniter posted:Joey Votto is a very very good baseball player. He is super patient at the plate, has led the league in walks a couple times, and is a good defensive first baseman to boot. Joevy Votto is a cake-eater who doesn't drive in enough runs and doesn't hit for power. This is what some people will say and it's every one else's job to embarrass them for being stupid
|
|
#
?
Mar 26, 2014 20:11
|
|
|
I've been reading the old newbie thread and one of the stronger pieces of advice I've seen is "follow a division, not the whole league," which makes the whole thing less intimidating. Anything fun (rivalries, rowdy emotions, etc.) I should know about the NL East for this season? I'm going to try and follow the Nationals.
|
|
|
#
?
Mar 26, 2014 20:44
|
|
|
reflex posted:I've been reading the old newbie thread and one of the stronger pieces of advice I've seen is "follow a division, not the whole league," which makes the whole thing less intimidating. Anything fun (rivalries, rowdy emotions, etc.) I should know about the NL East for this season? I'm going to try and follow the Nationals. Everyone (read: Braves and Braves fans) hates Bryce Harper because he's 20 and good at baseball. It's very precocious of him, you know. Stephen Strasburg is amazing when he's healthy. Jayson Werth made an amazing career resurgence with the Phillies years ago, and then signed a massive contract with the Nats after the best year he's ever had, and that leads to animosity. The Mets wish it was back to the time when both teams were bad and didn't have hope. The Marlins.
|
|
#
?
Mar 26, 2014 21:13
|
|
|
Nationals vs. Braves - this is becoming a pretty serious rivalry because both teams have a lot of fairly young talent. Phillies fans vs. Nationals fans - The Phillies used to bus enough fans to away games in Washington to basically overrun the park but, due to a combination of the Phillies being bad and the Nats being good for a change, the Nationals have finally attracted enough local fans to push back. This is a pretty good one to watch: Jimmy Rollins vs. the Phillies - Rollins is on pace to break the Phillies career hits record but it looks like the Phillies are trying to alienate him to the point that he will accept a trade to another team. Phillies manager, Ryne Sandberg, benched Rollins at one point in spring training (granted, Rollins was having a terrible start to ST) with very little explanation to the media.
|
|
#
?
Mar 26, 2014 22:18
|
|
|
reflex posted:I've been reading the old newbie thread and one of the stronger pieces of advice I've seen is "follow a division, not the whole league," which makes the whole thing less intimidating. Anything fun (rivalries, rowdy emotions, etc.) I should know about the NL East for this season? I'm going to try and follow the Nationals. Get ready for plenty of Mets schadenfreude. They're still suffering from the effects of their financial strategy of "Invest everything with their BFF Bernie Madoff" and having to pay settlement costs for the afflicted.
|
|
#
?
Mar 26, 2014 23:29
|
|
|
Drunk Tomato posted:Does anyone have any good suggestions for a baseball podcast? Weekly roundup would be best for me; I don't need hours of daily recap, just stuff about players and league news and such. Replying with results to myself in case anyone else is interested. I've found three weekly 40-minute baseball talk shows that seem promising: 1. Ground Rule Single 2. Getting Blanked 3. The Baseball Show with Rany and Joe
|
|
#
?
Mar 26, 2014 23:40
|
|
|
Do not listen to Rany and Joe they are clowns
|
|
#
?
Mar 26, 2014 23:50
|
|
|
Drunk Tomato posted:
turn left
|
|
#
?
Mar 26, 2014 23:58
|
|
Tater Love 
|
zakharov posted:turn left Oh, man, so what's wrong with them? Haven't tried listening to them yet.
|
|
#
?
Mar 27, 2014 00:30
|
|
|
Drunk Tomato posted:Oh, man, so what's wrong with them? Haven't tried listening to them yet. I think the main issue is that Rany's work with Baseball Prospectus has given him a veneer of statistical credibility that he doesn't really merit and his status as "The World's Most Famous Royals Fan" gives his ideas a reach that they might not really deserve. It's my impression that there's a perception that he's bought into his own hype, as it were, though I don't personally read or listen to him so I can't say how accurate any of this is. He is definitely the kind of guy who likes to throw statistics around as the be-all end-all answer to problems that they may not apply to. So basically, if you enjoy listening to him then go for it, just make sure to take his opinions with a grain of salt.
|
|
#
?
Mar 27, 2014 06:41
|
|
|
Badfinger posted:Everyone (read: Braves and Braves fans) hates Bryce Harper because he's 20 and good at baseball. It's very precocious of him, you know. Stephen Strasburg is amazing when he's healthy. Jayson Werth made an amazing career resurgence with the Phillies years ago, and then signed a massive contract with the Nats after the best year he's ever had, and that leads to animosity. The Mets wish it was back to the time when both teams were bad and didn't have hope. The Marlins. Jayson Werth's best season as a baseball player was actually not as a Phillie, but as a Nat, last year, when he OPS'd .931 in 532 PA, and somehow everyone just forgot about it five minutes after the season ended e: Rany is at the weird stage in his baseball pundit career where he has enough name cache and important friends while simultaneously being irrelevant enough that it just, doesn't matter what he says; no one will fact-check him and he will never suffer any consequences for saying things that are wrong. Combine that with Joe, who essentially defines skin-deep contrarianism, and you've got a show I'd personally avoid at all costs unless you've got other resources to double-check the Insights those two impart. That said, they are like one of three actual regular baseball podcasts of note, so the market is kind of slim at the moment Crion fucked around with this message at 12:07 on Mar 27, 2014 |
|
#
?
Mar 27, 2014 11:54
|
|
|
Crion posted:Jayson Werth's best season as a baseball player was actually not as a Phillie, but as a Nat, last year, when he OPS'd .931 in 532 PA, and somehow everyone just forgot about it five minutes after the season ended While I'd probably be willing to argue 10 points of ops against 100 more PA, I made a mistake and had actually meant to write "he'd" rather than "he's", indicating it was the best year of his career to that point. I was more pointing out that fans get mad and act irrationally over that sort of thing.
|
|
#
?
Mar 27, 2014 16:15
|
|
|
reflex posted:I've been reading the old newbie thread and one of the stronger pieces of advice I've seen is "follow a division, not the whole league," which makes the whole thing less intimidating. Anything fun (rivalries, rowdy emotions, etc.) I should know about the NL East for this season? I'm going to try and follow the Nationals. Here's a good piece on the NL East by a baseball writer who's pretty good, in my opinion.
|
|
#
?
Mar 27, 2014 17:38
|
|
|
Rany and Joe are also not doing their podcast anymore so it's kind of a moot point. It was kind of a trainwreck but I found it entertaining so I'm going to miss it. Jonah Keri has a baseball podcast through Grantland that you might also want to check out, it's not bad.
|
|
#
?
Mar 27, 2014 20:09
|
|
|
|
| # ? Apr 24, 2024 08:48 |
|
|
How does MLB compare to other US sports in terms of profitability? Is attending growing/shrink/staying the same? Is there big TV deals because people actually watch baseball on TV?
|
|
#
?
Mar 28, 2014 19:19
|
|
