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Badfinger
Dec 16, 2004

Timeouts?!

We'll take care of that.

LeftistMuslimObama posted:

Does anybody track batters faced per out as a pitcher stat? I was thinking it might be useful in cases where a pitcher has a decent-looking ERA but actually lets a lot of guys on base and has a big potential to let situations blow up that's not revealed by stats that only track runs allowed. Now that I'm thinking about it, WHIP probably tracks the same thing in a slightly different way, but I wonder if anyone's using the specific construction I'm suggesting.

The place I think what I'm calling bf/o would be more useful than WHIP is that BFO has a set "perfect score" of 1.00. Anything higher than that is a "suboptimal" number and you can easily rank pitchers against each other based on how high over 1.00 they are. Kinda like batting average but in the other direction. This might be especially useful for relievers, where ERA gets hella whacky really fast because they don't actually play more than one inning ever 4 days.

You'd be able to get probably more derived value out of just looking at the pitcher's OBP or OPS-against and left on base percentage. You may just be asking for batting average against in a roundabout way. Some sort of combined stat may not be better than a few understood and useful stats laid out in conjunction.

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Badfinger
Dec 16, 2004

Timeouts?!

We'll take care of that.
Yes, just having the pick itself now has intrinsic value, because teams now have a maximum amount of money they can spend on draft picks, based on the number and slotting. If you lose a 1st round pick, you lose the ability to spend that money on the draft.

Badfinger
Dec 16, 2004

Timeouts?!

We'll take care of that.

reflex posted:

I've been reading the old newbie thread and one of the stronger pieces of advice I've seen is "follow a division, not the whole league," which makes the whole thing less intimidating. Anything fun (rivalries, rowdy emotions, etc.) I should know about the NL East for this season? I'm going to try and follow the Nationals.

Everyone (read: Braves and Braves fans) hates Bryce Harper because he's 20 and good at baseball. It's very precocious of him, you know. Stephen Strasburg is amazing when he's healthy. Jayson Werth made an amazing career resurgence with the Phillies years ago, and then signed a massive contract with the Nats after the best year he's ever had, and that leads to animosity. The Mets wish it was back to the time when both teams were bad and didn't have hope. The Marlins.

Badfinger
Dec 16, 2004

Timeouts?!

We'll take care of that.

Crion posted:

Jayson Werth's best season as a baseball player was actually not as a Phillie, but as a Nat, last year, when he OPS'd .931 in 532 PA, and somehow everyone just forgot about it five minutes after the season ended

e: Rany is at the weird stage in his baseball pundit career where he has enough name cache and important friends while simultaneously being irrelevant enough that it just, doesn't matter what he says; no one will fact-check him and he will never suffer any consequences for saying things that are wrong. Combine that with Joe, who essentially defines skin-deep contrarianism, and you've got a show I'd personally avoid at all costs unless you've got other resources to double-check the Insights those two impart. That said, they are like one of three actual regular baseball podcasts of note, so the market is kind of slim at the moment

While I'd probably be willing to argue 10 points of ops against 100 more PA, I made a mistake and had actually meant to write "he'd" rather than "he's", indicating it was the best year of his career to that point. I was more pointing out that fans get mad and act irrationally over that sort of thing.

Badfinger
Dec 16, 2004

Timeouts?!

We'll take care of that.

cheesetriangles posted:

How does MLB compare to other US sports in terms of profitability? Is attending growing/shrink/staying the same? Is there big TV deals because people actually watch baseball on TV?

The chart above is a couple years old. MLB had over $8bn in revenue last year. Attendance is growing slightly, but MLB makes a ton of revenue from out of stadium streams like TV deals and their online packages.

Badfinger
Dec 16, 2004

Timeouts?!

We'll take care of that.
Is that a fantasy thing? Just a head's up, a bit taboo to discuss fantasy stuff in the regular baseball threads, but there is a fantasy sports subforum and you can probably get any other questions you have answered there.

http://forums.somethingawful.com/forumdisplay.php?forumid=248

Badfinger
Dec 16, 2004

Timeouts?!

We'll take care of that.
^^^ The thing with the Rockies running a hard pitch count wasn't bad because that pitch limit was strict and wrong. It was bad because all the pitchers they used sucked. If they had better pitchers, they wouldn't have been so willing to pull the hook on one throwing well when he made it over 70 pitches.

Tharizdun posted:

Thinking back to when Micah Owings was "a thing," and they were talking about giving him a glove to play 1B and get his bat into the lineup on his off days, has there ever been a plan to have two SP, one playing first, a lefty and a righty and having defensive switches based on the batter matchup throughout the game?

I was also reading about an abortive plan the Rockies had to basically have a two-man rotation, but limit pitchers to two IP apiece and basically run the whole game as "two innings and done" system to... something about Coors.

My question is, obviously these are pretty radical ideas. Is there any place to try these out? Where are the test beds for the baseball equivalent of the A11 offense? If the minors are to prepare players to succeed at the orthodox major league level, where are the truly insane strategies tried out?

The thing with baseball as opposed to football is there are really only a few wrinkles you can throw. We've reached a point where the pitchers have to be so good and the hitters so good to compensate that being 90% there for both isn't good enough. Frankly, it's always been the case. There are no good hitting pitchers. Minimum 300 PA as a pitcher, there are 40 TOTAL from 1900-2014 (on this chart) that have a .300 OBP or better.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...s=0&sort=14%2cd

For whatever reason, becoming a great pitcher and a great hitter have been mutually exclusive. There will always be outliers, that chart doesn't have Babe Ruth on it even though he had a 190 OPS+ in 1300 PA in years he pitched more than 10 innings because he's listed as an OF instead of a pitcher. But basically outside of Babe loving Ruth people don't make the transition.

Badfinger
Dec 16, 2004

Timeouts?!

We'll take care of that.
Yeah, if you like baseball enough to actively seek out more baseball good on you. Just be warned that every team is going to lose 40% of its games and some are going to be really lovely and you'll hate it. Some real boring/bad baseball will come from your two same teams on the same day. With that in mind, do not pick the Braves. Watch all the Mike Trout and Yasiel Puig highlights always.

Badfinger
Dec 16, 2004

Timeouts?!

We'll take care of that.

Michael Corleone posted:

From last page, but here's an unorthodox idea for the Rockies. Sign an ace, or for now use their best pitcher in this role. Then, you try to pitch him as much as possible on the road. So, you would maybe skip his start in a short home series, but obviously not in a long homestand. Maybe also consider taking him out of a blowout game early if the situation arose that you could pitch him on 4 days rest later for an extra away start. You could do this with more than one pitcher too and maybe have a 6 or 7 man rotation, with a couple of the 'starters' also working in the pen on occasion to save roster spots. Just recognize that home games are going to be high run scoring regardless and you'll just have to outscore the opponent.

I don't want to discourage you from posting rotation ideas, but the basic tenants of starting pitching basically haven't changed in 100 years. The thought process is get the best pitchers you can and have them throw as often as they can for as long as they can. The target that's moved over the years is what's defined as acceptable for how often they can pitch, which right now is 4 days rest. With off days and scheduling and all that it works out to needing not quite 5 full time starting pitchers. Advancements in medicine teaching us some things about how pitcher bodies really work plus modern concepts of bullpen management (some good, some essentially contrived) helped determine how big a pitching staff needs to be. The trend is always towards more; teams will run a 13 man pitching staff now if they think they can get away with it, but you always want your best pitchers pitching the most in all places.

Badfinger
Dec 16, 2004

Timeouts?!

We'll take care of that.

ManifunkDestiny posted:

Oh so you're looking forward to this giveaway then



I'm fairly annoyed that society has accepted whatever this fat, stupid thing is as a fedora.

Badfinger
Dec 16, 2004

Timeouts?!

We'll take care of that.

Everblight posted:

I've been reading this year's baseball prospectus, and they list the previous BABIP for hitters. What I want to know is, is there a default BABIP for hitters? Like, you see a guy whose BABIP is .360, obv "that's not sustainable and he will regress." or .218 "he got supremely unlucky last year" but then they go ahead and predict what their BABIP will be this year.

How? Do they analyze the defensive metrics of their opponents for the year and reverse-engineer from that? I feel like in BBTN they said "BABIP is .300 in a vacuum" but maybe I dreamt that?

BABIP is .300 in a vacuum for pitchers.

For hitters there are a number of factors. Everyone tends to be clustered in a fairly narrow range like .250-.350 or so because that's just how baseball works, but some guys can sustain a high BABIP because of how they hit. Derek Jeter has a career .350 BABIP. He hits 60% ground balls, 20% line drives, his K% is lower than average (which affects BABIP because he puts more balls in play which means more chances for hits), and he wasn't always 40 years old and could run a little bit. Ichiro is a similar profile. K% also works in the other direction sometimes - Ryan Howard has a career .325 BABIP because even though he's slow as hell and hits a lot of fly balls, when he's not busy striking out he hits the ball so drat hard (or used to).

When someone suggests a hitter will regress, if they're actually doing their homework and not just using the word "regression" to mean "I don't think this player is as good/bad as they performed!" what they're doing is probably profiling the type of hitter that person is against other players and against averages for hit types. If someone hit 30% line drives in 200 plate appearances that's a big indicator that they will probably have a lower BABIP in the future because 30% line drives is just not sustainable by anyone ever in the history of baseball.

Generally if someone is sustaining a low BABIP it's because they're a bad hitter. If you NEVER hit the ball hard, you aren't going to get a lot of hits. No one is making arguments that Drew Butera is going to snap out of his career .220 BABIP and he's due for some base hits, because he makes lovely contact.

Badfinger
Dec 16, 2004

Timeouts?!

We'll take care of that.

Mornacale posted:

K rate does not affect BABIP in any way other than sample size. e: I should be careful to clarify that K rate may be an indicator of BABIP: a hitter who strikes out a lot may also be prone to more weak grounders and pop-ups. But this is strictly a correlation, not causation.

It's also worth pointing out that league BABIP is probably going to see a significant drop as teams league-wide adopt better defensive positioning.

Re-reading, I didn't really say what I was going for. Yeah, K% has no bearing on BABIP directly. I probably should have just omitted it?

For Derek Jeter specifically, the fact that he hits a lot of hard ground balls and line drives means that his lower strikeout rate gives him a higher opportunity to have hard ground balls and line drives that drop for hits. And because line drives and ground balls go for hits more often than fly balls do, players that don't strike out often, run well, AND make good contact are more likely to be able to sustain a high BABIP. So it was an aside that was just a repeat about hit types.


The thing about Ryan Howard is that you wouldn't expect him to have a .330 BABIP, but that's not how the stat works (as indicated).

vvv I also wanted to say that hit types get classified differently all over the place so be careful, but I write too drat much to explain too little as it is. Another good point.

Badfinger fucked around with this message at 21:56 on May 19, 2014

Badfinger
Dec 16, 2004

Timeouts?!

We'll take care of that.

VJeff posted:

So Miggy is up to 34 doubles. Some people are saying he might reach 60 this year. From what I've read, this seems like it'd be a pretty big deal. How much of an accomplishment would that be relatively to the other stuff he's done? Does he have any kind of shot at breaking 67?

Also is there anything to the notion that a player would intentionally hit doubles to keep the opposing team constantly pitching in traffic or is a player pretty much gonna always hit home runs if they can. I ask cause I'm curious if Miggy is intentionally hitting more doubles or if his power is starting to drop.

Doubles have a strong correlation with power. Players who hit a lot of doubles can potentially see a spike in home runs (think Luis Gonzalez), and players not hitting as many home runs but continuing to hit doubles doesn't necessarily mean their power is gone. Which isn't to say that is not a factor, as it may be. Doubles are good, though!

Outside of slap hits/bunts, basically no type of hit is intentional. You definitely wouldn't "try" to hit a double as opposed to a home run. Home runs just happen with good power.

Badfinger
Dec 16, 2004

Timeouts?!

We'll take care of that.

skooma512 posted:

Dee Gordon fouled to deep left just now. The left fielder went to play it but the ball bounced away.

What the hell is that? Either it's playable or it's not. I feel like if you attempt to catch foul ball and fail, that should count as a good ball.

Because you have to draw a line making a clear delineation between a ball in play and a ball not in play, and the line in this case is literal. The person running across the line doesn't matter.

Badfinger
Dec 16, 2004

Timeouts?!

We'll take care of that.

Doghouse posted:

I just kinda started getting back into baseball again, after liking it as a kid - I went to maybe 5 games this year. I'm in baltimore and didn't get Orioles playoff tickets, though I tried. What exactly is the deal with buying tickets second hand? Is it illegal or otherwise problematic or not legit? If it is legit, are there any good ways to try to find them?

It's perfectly fine to the point that StubHub is literally endorsed as a resale site by MLB.

If you're not buying tickets from somewhere you can be sure is trustworthy, be careful. People do all the time, though.

Badfinger
Dec 16, 2004

Timeouts?!

We'll take care of that.
You should probably get out of the way purely in self-preservation so a shortstop doesn't fire a baseball directly into your face.

We were always taught to slide into 2nd with our head down and hands up. As MIF, we were also taught to throw the ball as directly as possible to first base on double play opportunities.

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Badfinger
Dec 16, 2004

Timeouts?!

We'll take care of that.

Everblight posted:

But during an option year you could theoretically send him up and down 18 times in a 180 day season, yes?

Correct.

Which means Rujasu's post needs to be corrected on that point. You can't actually "run out of options" on a player. They are option years, so the first time that player is optioned in the season, the option year is exercised. What people mean when they say a team has run out of options on a player is that he has no more option years remaining. You can shuttle some poor bastard back and forth as often as the rules stipulate during any given season provided they are in an option year.

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