2014 MLB Lurker/Newbie Appreciation Station

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > 2014 MLB Lurker/Newbie Appreciation Station

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

Why are teams so terrified of losing a pick by signing a free agent. I can think of so many 1st-rounders who NEVER make the Show, or only as an innings-eater middle reliever, after sucking up endless signing bonuses. Meanwhile, once the BBWAA gets its head out of its rear end, a nepotism signing in the 63rd round will be in the Hall of Fame.

If you're looking for a place to crush inefficiency, it's wasting money on Brien Tayler, Todd Van Poppel and Allan Dykstra.

Shrecknet fucked around with this message at 19:21 on Mar 20, 2014

# ¿ Mar 20, 2014 19:19

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ¿ Apr 25, 2024 01:09

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

gleep gloop posted:

The Marlins I don't know anything about, except they have a real promising young pitcher (they'll probably eventually lose) and an amazing young slugger (they will definitely lose) and a horrible owner who sold off everything of value to save $$$.

Understand that, though I am a former Marlins fan, I say the following not out of hometown hyperbole, but honest impartial opinion:

Jeffrey Loria is the most damaging owner in baseball.

Not just the worst, but actually a terrible, damaging force. He was instrumental in destroying the Expos, dismantling them and sending them to Washington, and he is a foul pox on Miami as well.

Joe Girardi was let go after winning Manager of the Year in Miami by getting 25 teenagers to play almost .500 ball, because he had the temerity to stand up in the dugout and tell Loria to shut up and stop heckling the Ump over balls and strikes from his seat.

Loria bullied and buffaloed the city into building him a giant new park instead of letting him try and shop around an ailing team that he has shown a record of systematically dismantling before he came crawling back to pay for it on his own.

Loria also spent big the first year of the Miami Marlins' season, only to summarily ship off, release and otherwise break contracts signed with players, which ensures that no free agent will sign anything with Miami ever again unless it's paid up front.

The sooner Loria gets a painful wasting disease, the better life will be for everyone.

# ¿ Apr 2, 2014 21:08

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

I still think that the city of Miami should have bought the Marlins from Loria when he threatened to pack up and leave, rather than give him a stadium gratis.

More cities should just pony up for the teams. If they aren't profitable (as the owners claim), then let them be owned by an institution that doesn't need them to be profitable.

# ¿ Apr 2, 2014 22:49

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

I defer to Kenneth Lamar Powers on this:

"I'm a ballplayer. Not tryin' to be the best at exercising."

# ¿ Apr 9, 2014 17:09

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

MondayHotDog posted:

Weight loss has to be contributing to Sabathia's loss of velocity. Age doesn't make your fastball deteriorate that quickly, does it? He's only 33.

It's not the years, honey. It's the mileage. CC is 3rd in active IP, and 172 all time at just 33. Another 5 200 IP years would put him with Bob Feller, Jim Palmer and Charlie Hough (lol knuckleballers pitch forever) in the top 50 all-time.

Shrecknet fucked around with this message at 06:32 on Apr 14, 2014

# ¿ Apr 14, 2014 06:30

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

Thinking back to when Micah Owings was "a thing," and they were talking about giving him a glove to play 1B and get his bat into the lineup on his off days, has there ever been a plan to have two SP, one playing first, a lefty and a righty and having defensive switches based on the batter matchup throughout the game?

I was also reading about an abortive plan the Rockies had to basically have a two-man rotation, but limit pitchers to two IP apiece and basically run the whole game as "two innings and done" system to... something about Coors.

My question is, obviously these are pretty radical ideas. Is there any place to try these out? Where are the test beds for the baseball equivalent of the A11 offense? If the minors are to prepare players to succeed at the orthodox major league level, where are the truly insane strategies tried out?

# ¿ Apr 17, 2014 20:00

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

Ted Williams was a super-good guy at literally everything. I've heard him referred to as "the most proficient human being of the 20th century" and I have trouble saying that's wrong. Dude was an ace fighter pilot in two wars, hit .400, won the triple crown and (later in life) was inducted into the Fishing Hall of Fame on merit. Pretty complete human being

Edit:

quote:

Williams was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame on July 25, 1966. In his induction speech, Williams included a statement calling for the recognition of the great Negro Leagues players: "I've been a very lucky guy to have worn a baseball uniform, and I hope some day the names of Satchel Paige and Josh Gibson in some way can be added as a symbol of the great Negro players who are not here only because they weren't given a chance.

So basically he was the perfect human.

Shrecknet fucked around with this message at 05:34 on Apr 19, 2014

# ¿ Apr 19, 2014 05:27

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

Badfinger posted:

I'm fairly annoyed that society has accepted whatever this fat, stupid thing is as a fedora.

No, you see, a trilby is owned by douches, while my fedora is unlike it because I only wear it with the finest MLP T-shirts ~*farrrrrtz*~

# ¿ May 2, 2014 17:50

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

Mornacale posted:

Currently the NL is weaker than the AL, but yes it tends to rotate. However, it's widely believed that having the DH is a structural advantage for AL teams in inter-league play.

Can you go into that? I feel it would be the opposite; when the AL teams come to NL parks, they have to bench one of their two big boppers and let the other play 1st, while their pitchers flail even more ineffectually than the NL ones, whereas in AL-hosted interleague, the NL just gets to play their 10th best player in the lineup.

# ¿ May 3, 2014 03:31

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

Occasionally I read about something like "the Rockies have purchased the Montgomery Biscuits" or something where an org buys an entire minor league team.

Does this mean they get all the players? Or do the current Biscuits all scatter up or down a level in their original org and the Rockies just buy the name, stadium and location?

# ¿ May 16, 2014 18:31

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

Politicalrancor posted:

MiLB teams are "affiliated" with MLB teams, but those affiliations can change over time. Recently, the Dodgers and the Angels swapped affiliations, which is just a location swap, really. The reason for affiliate changes isn't always clear, at least to me, but sometimes its because they want their prospects closer to the MLB team.

So like, Dale Dodgerson plays for the Inland Empire Kings AA Dodgers team. Aaron Angelson plays for the Mojave Snakes AA Angels team.

In this swap that happens, is Dale now an Angels prospect? Or does Dale just suit up for the Snakes, who are a Dodgers affiliate now?

# ¿ May 16, 2014 19:00

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

Pander posted:

Teams keep their own prospects. It would be really, really crazy to just swap entire minor league personnel given the intense effort put into assembling them.

That's not to say that some talent-weak organizations wouldn't love to do that...

I assumed that Dale Dodgerson just gets a new jersey and the address to his new park, but otherwise personnel stay the same, but then again players get traded for bags of baseballs all the time so I wasn't sure.

# ¿ May 16, 2014 19:29

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

I've been reading this year's baseball prospectus, and they list the previous BABIP for hitters. What I want to know is, is there a default BABIP for hitters? Like, you see a guy whose BABIP is .360, obv "that's not sustainable and he will regress." or .218 "he got supremely unlucky last year" but then they go ahead and predict what their BABIP will be this year.

How? Do they analyze the defensive metrics of their opponents for the year and reverse-engineer from that? I feel like in BBTN they said "BABIP is .300 in a vacuum" but maybe I dreamt that?

# ¿ May 19, 2014 20:33

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

Monicro posted:

A mediocre reliever that got picked up off the scrap heap by Tampa a couple years back and inexplicably put up literally the best season a reliever has ever had, before immediately going back to being mediocre in 2013 (but that was still enough to get him a nice contract obviously). When he's at his best he can be downright unfair as he has a high-90s fastball and a low-80s change up which can obviously be a deadly combination, but unfortunately he can't really control either most of the time which makes most if his outings rather interesting.

Also google searching shows that he religiously wears his hat slightly tilted, which leads me to think sportswriters are constantly saying "that kid doesn't respect the game" and "he doesn't play the right way" and "he's a niBONGGGGGGG!" and other such curmudgeonly awfulness.

# ¿ May 19, 2014 21:45

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

ayn rand hand job posted:

Don't forget about paying a hockey player until he's 60 to lower his AAV hit against the cap.

Which I think is gone now, but that was hilarious.

reminder that Bobby Bonilla is still on the Mets payroll, and will be for at least another decade.

# ¿ May 20, 2014 17:42

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

Does anyone still teach the Baltimore Chop or have defenses improved to the point that non-Mike-Lowells don't bother with it anymore?

# ¿ Jun 10, 2014 00:32

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

bluh posted:

here's a good example of why ERA is an extremely flawed stat: in a game earlier this year, CC Sabathia gave up 3 home runs. He was only charged with 1 earned run.

What? How? I thought Home Runs were always credited to the pitcher giving them up (ignoring men on base via error, catcher interference, etc), so he should definitely have at least 3 ER?

# ¿ Jun 14, 2014 16:54

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

If the best possible batting order will always be OBP, highest to lowest, why hasn't Theo or Beane told their manager to write the lineup that way for a season, maybe updating weekly?

# ¿ Jun 14, 2014 20:06

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

posted:

�Bonds had four sacrifice hits in his career. (Ted Williams had five; Hank Aaron had 21.)

How is this even possible? Surely more than four times in his career Bonds had a man on third with less than two out, and he just hit a long fly out.

# ¿ Jul 24, 2014 20:34

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

Alan Trammell posted:

"Sacrifice hits" are bunts. What you're thinking of is called a "sacrifice fly".

Then why is there this line:
�In his 16 recorded bunt attempts, Bonds laid down two for sacrifices and picked up eight hits on the others, for a .571 batting average.

# ¿ Jul 24, 2014 20:38

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

After watching Beltre and then Cano (and ostensibly now Morales) go to Safeco just to have their thump evaporate, I checked out the park factors for SafeCo, and it's 29th, lower than even PetCo.

Is park factor a useful stat, though? Over the last three years, there's been 5 seasons of King Felix and Iwakuma pitching to opposing players, and about � a season of a legitimate power hitter in Cano (and he's doing awful) there to offset it the other way. How much does historically anemic offense and great pitching affect the park factor, and can you discount it if literally half the information being fed into the system is wildly atypical.

# ¿ Jul 26, 2014 17:37

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

Bob Shabazz posted:

Park factors are generally pretty decent but to get a good measure of them you have to look at multiple years. There's just too much noise in a single season for it to be all that accurate. There are some people (self included) who think that park factors can be a bit distorted by team composition. Safeco and AT&T, for example, are both filled by teams who have had good pitching and terrible hitting, and they have park factors that I think are a little bit ridiculous.

I did mention three-year park factors, but again years of Mike Zunino and Dustin Ackley getting significant ABs while Iwakuma and King Felix toe the rubber means it's still probably distorted.

# ¿ Jul 26, 2014 17:49

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

Why not rejigger Park Factor to be

code:

average distance of batted balls to each field (league-wide)
      ------------------------------
          dimensions of ballpark

to show how much bigger or smaller than average it is. Feel free to also incorporate foul territory as a percentage of fair territory to show how O.co generates crazy extra outs due to its massive foul territory.

# ¿ Jul 26, 2014 20:56

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

It's clear by this point that all hitters are terrible, and even middling, replacement-level talent is going for insane money. Guys with 0.2 WARP are getting 8-figure deals.

I thought 'replacement-level' meant these were guys that were chilling in AAA and could be had for league-minimum by anyone, at most for a million apiece.

Is it time to re-evaluate not just how WAR is calculated, but actually what "replacement-level" is? Is it not just possible, but likely, that the pool of true replacement-level players is much shallower (and more expensive) than originally thought?

# ¿ Sep 29, 2014 18:37

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

Looking at just the Padres (chosen at random):

Chase Headley, 1.4 WAR, $10.4m
Evereth Cabrera, 0.6 WAR, $2.4m
Cameron Maybin, 0.4 WAR, $5m
Nick Hundley, 0.1 WAR, $4m

And on the pitching side
Tim Stauffer, -0.1 WAR, $1.6m
Eric Stults, -0.7 WAR, $2.7m

Either a replacement-level player is much worse than we currently understand, or management of baseball teams is much worse at identifying talent than amateurs on the internet.

I'm asserting the former; that true replacement-level talent is so bad and/or not as freely available as believed that we need to revise how we view Evereth Cabrera, because either he's overpaid or he's significantly above replacement level, and I don't think he's overpaid. (or is he?)

# ¿ Sep 29, 2014 19:37

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

Pander posted:

And you'll frequently get the older veteran who will never meet his steep price. This is part of the way a pricing system built on risk/reward works. Pay more for a more known quantity that may provide less reward, or pay less on unknown players who bust at a higher rate.

I guess from a fantasy GM standpoint it seems silly to overpay a veteran on the order of $5-8m for known production, when you could literally have 10 players at that rate (making league minimum) and if they don't pan out, just waive them (and eat the $500k) until one proves he can provide at least replacement-level play. If it took you five players, you'd have $2.5m spent on a player under team control for 2-4 years who is providing at least a half a WAR for a few hundred grand.

This is really mercenary and doesn't take into account clubhouse things, like feeling that you're always on the chopping block, but from a GM's perspective it seems like a winning business model - unless my theory that replacement-level players are not as freely available (or competent) as the WARP model supposes, which would mean WAR should be revised up.

# ¿ Sep 29, 2014 20:13

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

Again, I'm not talking about specific players, just that the concept of a replacement player as compared to who is actually bumming around in AAA seems to have a disconnect, and empirically bad players (Nick Punto, Ryan Howard, James Loney) get big deals and hang on much longer than they probably should compared to chancing on a few AAA guys, even if you have to eat their entire contract.

# ¿ Sep 29, 2014 20:50

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

Pander posted:

So even though he's borderline replacement level in terms of counting-stat production, the fact Punto relieves the need for separate competent backup 3B/2B/SS players on the bench has a value that doesn't show up in WAR.

I guess then the question is, how valuable is that? Because Nick Punto cannot possibly be worth $3m a year to :punto:

it up.

# ¿ Sep 29, 2014 21:41

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

Pander posted:

What are you basing your monetary assessments upon?

Twenty years of Marlin fandom, which boils down to "If he costs more than $440,000 a year, he's gone." I assume all teams are operating under the same "keep payroll under $30m a year for 25 players" restrictions, and sometimes forget that other teams are actually profitable/don't cook the books enough that an occasional whiff on a Cameron Maybin isn't going to bankrupt the team.

# ¿ Sep 29, 2014 22:38

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

More of a general sports question, but certainly applicable to baseball:

What would happen if, mid-season, the - say - Cleveland Indians plane crashed, and the whole team died. Obviously all games would be cancelled for a day or two (like 9/11 did), but then they'd have to pick back up. What happens when a team is gone? Do the opponents Cleveland would have had to play get wins by forfeit? Does Cleveland call up literally every AAA player they can and try to field a team for the rest of the season?

# ¿ Oct 6, 2014 22:37

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

Say Ichiro picks up a line drive in RF, throws to the cutoff McLemore, who guns it home to Wilson who then applies the tag to Jeter.

Obviously Wilson gets the PO, but is Ichiro also credited with an assist as the fielder who initially touched the ball, or just McLemore for being the last guy to touch it before the putout?

# ¿ Nov 17, 2014 19:06

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

tadashi posted:

Do baseball cards have to be in mint condition to be worth anything? If I find some old cards I want to preserve, what is considered the best method by current collectors (other than going back in time and not opening the package).

Baseball cards are all worthless now. Rookie cards of stars printed before 1975 have value, but other than that, they're all junk. The sole exception is newer cards with EXTREMELY limited print runs (less than 500) of star players' rookie cards (like 2001 Bowman Chrome Pujols, which was limited to 561 copies, and is about $10k)

# ¿ Nov 17, 2014 22:29

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

ElwoodCuse posted:

If they actually are OLD old send them to a grading service like PSA or Beckett.

Caveat: If they're old and beat to poo poo, don't pay money to have them encased in lucite with a badge on them saying they're in crappy condition. A BGS 4 Pete Rose is worth a hell of a lot more out of the slab than in one.

# ¿ Nov 18, 2014 18:57

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

tadashi posted:

I don't really care about the value. I just found a couple Barry Bonds and Frank Thomas rookie cards in decent shape and I'd like to keep them that way for my own collection. Looks like just using toploaders is the standard thing to do?

Yeah, if that even. Those cards are guaranteed worthless. Might think about getting a little bound-in 9-card binder (at at CCG/gaming store for Magic) to put them in so they stay on a shelf in a nice easy-to-transport/display manner (something like this)

# ¿ Nov 18, 2014 22:04

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

What's the difference between command and control, really?

# ¿ Nov 21, 2014 23:48

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

kensei posted:

Designated Hitter, Hall of Fame, Wild Card.

The words have been intoned, the sigil completed.

HE IS RISEN

# ¿ Nov 22, 2014 22:28

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

Was Pete Rose any good? He seems to be just a slap-hitting on-base machine, but BBRef says he played almost all of his career in a corner OF spot or at 1B. Did Cincinnati really only want 152 HRs in 19 years out of their first baseman? That's like putting Ichiro at first.

# ¿ Dec 16, 2014 22:03

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

Ice To Meet You posted:

Rose didn't move to first base until he was 38 (when the Phillies had Mike Schmidt, so he wasn't going to play third anymore). But it ended up becoming his single most played position, because he hung around for so long to get the hits record, and because he switched positions so many times earlier in his career.

Looks like he was a COF then a 1B most. So the argument of "is Pete Rose good?" boils down to "Would you like Ichiro clogging up your COF/1B for twenty years"

And I guess the answer is obviously yes, but is Pete Rose a HoF (disregarding off-field actions)?

Side note: Ark Monk is not a Hall of Famer in my eyes. 800 ten-yard curls? Really? You get in for that?

# ¿ Dec 16, 2014 22:35

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

Mornacale posted:

Pete Rose sans gambling is in the Nolan Ryan tier of "guys who are no-doubt Hall of Famers but who are kind of overrated because they have a unique skill set but holy crap did you see some of those loving numbers tho?! ".

That sounds about right. I'm okay with that, as he is basically "Tony Gwynn for twice as long" and that's OK.

# ¿ Dec 16, 2014 23:26

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ¿ Apr 25, 2024 01:09

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

For your effortpost: You might want to mention it only takes 180 days to get a "season" in roster time, and that it only is counting when the season is going.

To Clarify:

Blockade Billy is on the 25-man roster. The GM decides they don't want a murderer playing backstop, and no one wants to trade for him. They designate him for assignment. What happens next?

If Billy has less than three year's service, he simply goes back to the minors, yes? And he is still on the 40-man roster while playing for the AAA Frogs? And drawing his ML (league-minimum) salary?

What about if he has 4ish years?

What about 5+ years?

Are players automatically placed on waivers once DFA'd?

Once they get assigned, does that mean the previous lowest guy on the 40-man gets bumped back to the not-40-man roster, and loses his ML paydays and Rule V protection?

Waivers: Does the GM for the worst team in that league just have a little app like Tinder on his phone, only it shows 38 year old first basemen with jello for knees popping up? And he has X days to say yay or nay? What happens if the GM for the worst team is out sick? How long does everyone else stare at the player before the league says "ok, fine, next!"

Shrecknet fucked around with this message at 02:18 on Dec 17, 2014

# ¿ Dec 17, 2014 02:14

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > 2014 MLB Lurker/Newbie Appreciation Station

«‹›2 »