quote:

UPDATE

This thread is now the EuroPol thread.

Things under discussion include creaky EU institutions, lazy Greeks, German sadists, and the lazy French and more.

In short:



UPDATE

quote:

Latest polling data from the European Parliament's own polling centre - CURRENT TO 20/05/2014
[IMG][/IMG]

S&D vs EPP is going to be CLOSE - tactical voters may want to go for S&D at this point

quote:

Six months away from the European Parliament elections, the first serious set of predictions are being made.

Notre Europe – Jacques Delors Institute, a Paris-based think-tank, has recently published a must-read policy paper in which it predicts that the centre-left Socialists & Democrats Group (S&D) will oust the centre-right European People’s Party Group (EPP) as the largest group in the new Parliament.

And in February, Burson-Marsteller Brussels will support the launch – as part of Europe Decides – of PollWatch, a VoteWatch Europe project that will take an in-depth and regular look at opinion polls and the likely composition of the new assembly.

However, the election results are only part of the story. Post-election horse-trading and haggling plays a key role in determining the final composition of the groups and – significantly this time – the creation of a majority to back the appointment of a new President of the European Commission.

Political positioning and the distribution of key roles (such as committee chairs or group spokespeople) may help sway the decisions of national party delegations on where to sit.

Here’s our first look at how the groups may shape up after the elections:



• Group of the European People’s Party EPP
  
  The EPP Group is the currently biggest in the Parliament, and many of its member parties are also in power at a national level.
  
  This ‘incumbency problem’ is likely to trigger a drop in support, notably in Poland, Spain and Italy, which could have a major impact on EPP Group’s numerical strength after the election. As the Notre Europe paper suggests, an expected strong showing for the German Christian Democrats is unlikely to compensate for these losses.
  
  The creation of the pro-EU ‘The Europeans’ list in France – bringing together the Union of Democrats and Independents (UDI, whose MEPs currently sit in the EPP Group) and the centrist Democratic Movement (MoDem, represented in the Liberal ALDE Group) – presents a different type of challenge.
  
  Where ‘The Europeans’ sit could determine whether the EPP or S&D is the largest group – and therefore which party’s ‘common candidate’ has the moral right to be frontrunner for the Commission presidency. They could be the ‘kingmakers’.
  
  To its advantage, the EPP and its parliamentary group have always had broad bases, bringing together conservatives, Christian Democrats and other right-of-centre groups. Past deals with the British Conservatives show the flexibility – and the rewards in terms of positions and funding – that the EPP Group is prepared to offer.
  
  Although the Tories have burnt their bridges, this flexibility on the part of the EPP Group could be a decisive factor with other parties after the election.
  
  
• Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats S&D
  
  The S&D Group should benefit from the centre-right’s ‘incumbency problem’, but it is far from a foregone conclusion. A voter backlash may hit in the many countries where socialists and social democrats participate in national governments.
  
  Those most at risk include the Panhellenic Socialist Movement (Pasok), which is likely to be decimated in Greece. The German Social Democrats may suffer electorally from their probable participation in a grand coalition (the result of a ballot among SPD members should be known on 14-15 December).
  
  While the French Socialists may perform better than in 2009, they start from a low base and are unlikely to make significant gains. The British Labour Party may be the big winner – with the possibility of the UK delegation even doubling – and Labour could even stand a chance of providing the S&D Group leader (probably the only leading EU position that could be occupied by a British national).
  
  Keen to build a ‘progressive majority’, the S&D Group and the Party of European Socialists (PES) has been looking for support beyond their current member parties.
  
  The Leader of the S&D Group, Hannes Swoboda, for example, has held talks with the head of the Coalition of the Radical Left – Unitary Social Front (Syriza), Alexis Tsipras, and while Syriza is unlikely to join the S&D Group, its support may help build a left-of-centre coalition that backs Martin Schulz for the Commission presidency and cooperates on legislative issues.
  
  Schulz’s nomination by Italy’s Democratic Party (PD) – not a formal member of the PES – would seem to cement the party’s place in the S&D Group.
  
  Polish social democratic MEP Marek Siwiec has joined ‘Your Movement’ in Poland, a party led by Janusz Palikot, who achieved success in the 2011 Polish election. Bringing ‘Your Movement’ into the S&D Group could significantly boost the S&D Group’s Polish contingent. Positive Slovenia (PS) may be wooed by the S&D Group (although the ALDE Group would appear to be a more likely destination).
  
  The key to the S&D Group becoming the Parliament’s largest gathering may be its flexibility towards parties outside the traditional socialist and social democratic family. We may even see this reflected in a greater emphasis being placed on the ‘Progressive Alliance’ part of the Group’s lengthy name.
  
  
• Group of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe ALDE
  
  The Liberals face a tough election: the German Free Democratic Party (FDP) and British Liberal Democrats delegations, which currently form nearly 30 per cent of the Group’s total membership, are likely to return only a handful of MEPs each. The choice of group by France’s ‘The Europeans’ will also be a key factor in the ALDE Group’s strength.
  
  The Liberals may pick up new support from smaller parties (such as Positive Slovenia) but they also need to secure the backing of restless MEPs from current Liberal parties. The Dutch People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) is increasingly Eurosceptic, with members requesting the repatriation of powers and former interim party chair Mark Verheijen saying that the ALDE Group leader, Guy Verhofstadt, is more dangerous for Europe than Marine Le Pen.
  
  It is unlikely that VVD MEPs would leave the ALDE Group, but they may demand changes in policies and personnel. The FDP may also back a more cautious line on European integration.
  
  The presence of European Conservatives and Reformists Group (ECR) MEP Derk Jan Eppink on the VVD candidates list, and the close ties between the Dutch VVD prime minister Mark Rutte and his British Conservative counterpart David Cameron, probably present enough of a concern for the VVD to wring concessions out of the ALDE Group leadership.
  
  As ALDE Party President Graham Watson said ahead of the ALDE Congress in London, “In the past the dividing line within the liberal family has tended to be whether you were an economic liberal or social liberal… The major dividing line today is over how fast you want to build Europe”.
  
  
• Group of the Greens / European Free Alliance G/EFA
  
  The Greens/EFA Group is likely to be hit by losses for the French Ecologists and German Greens in comparison to their success in 2009.
  
  Dissatisfaction with EU national governments may see a rise in the vote for Green alternative and separatist parties, particularly in Belgium, where the likely success of the New Flemish Alliance (N-VA) in federal and regional elections on 25 May will probably help boost support for the party in the European Parliament election that will be held on the same day.
  
  However, the N-VA – which is separatist, but more rightist in its political programme – has never been a very natural fit for the Greens/EFA Group. The ECR Group may be suitors for the N-VA, even though the Flemish party is more pro-EU than other parties in the Conservative group.
  
  A potential bright spot for the Greens/EFA Group is the likely increase in support for Pirate parties.
  
  Like for the Pirates, the Group could also be the most natural home for MEPs from Italy’s Five-Star Movement (M5S), led by Beppe Grillo. Notre Europe predicts that Grillo’s party will win 15-20 MEPs – which would be a major boost to the Greens/EFA Group.
  
  
• European Conservatives and Reformists Group ECR
  
  The ECR Group – like the ALDE Group – face a make-or-break election. Two of the Group’s main three parties – the British Conservatives and Czech Civic Democratic Party (ODS) – are set to lose seats. The third – Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) will probably gain support.
  
  Holding onto the support of the handful of other parties and MEPs that help the Group secure its official status will be of primary importance – especially as some members and parties (such as Derk Jan Eppink of the Dedecker List in Belgium) will depart.
  
  The ECR Group will look to profit from a wave of support for moderate Eurosceptic parties, such the Alternative for Germany (AfD).
  
  The pro-European Flemish N-VA and the increasingly Euro-cautious Dutch VVD are other possible targets for membership, with varying levels of probability of them joining.
  
  The ECR Group could, as a result, become a much more diverse set of MEPs, less dominated by the British Conservatives.
  
  
• Europe of Freedom and Democracy Group EFD
  
  The EFD Group could very well be left out in the cold in the new parliament, unable to gather enough members and/or parties to form an official faction.
  
  While the UK Independence Party (Ukip) of the Group’s current leader, Nigel Farage, is likely to make some gains, other parties in the Group may lose support to more extreme anti-EU parties or decide to join a new group proposed by Marine Le Pen of France’s National Front (FN) and Geert Wilders of the Netherlands’ Party for Freedom (PVV).
  
  MEPs from Italy’s Northern League (LN) may hook up with Le Pen and Wilders , a move inspired in part by Farage’s condemnation of racist remarks by an LN MEP. The Finns Party (PS) and Sweden Democrats may also join the new far-right group.
  
  Farage may be left in the middle, caught between extremist anti-EU parties and the more mainstream Eurosceptics in the ECR Group. The widely-expected 2014 European Parliament election victory for Ukip in the UK could, in the end, turn out to be a pyrrhic one.
  
  
• Confederal Group of the European United Left / Nordic Green Left GUE/NGL
  
  The GUE/NGL Group is likely to profit from a rise in support for the United Left (IU) in Spain, Syriza in Greece, and possibly The Left (Linke) in Germany and radical left-wing groups in France.
  
  Indeed, while much of the focus of media attention is on the anti-EU or anti-establishment parties on the political right, some predictions suggest that those on the left will fare even better.
  
  Notre Europe predicts that the GUE/NGL Group will pick up 47 seats, making it the fifth-largest group in the Parliament, ahead of the Greens/EFA Group.
  
  Whether this happens depends much on the post-election negotiations. With around 15% of all MEPs likely to come from currently non-aligned parties, it is clear that the election results are only the beginning, and that a whole series of party games will follow.
  

Euronews posted:

How the European elections could redesign the Eurosceptic landscape

Rising voter frustration over the European project and perceived dwindling national sovereignty is likely to push voters to vote for Eurosceptic parties in the coming EU-wide elections, according to latest opinion polls.

But the results may also modify the balance of forces within the European Parliament.

Old and new political alliances will have to face the consequences of European citizens’ votes, adapt to survive as groups, or see their power falter. The Eurosceptic landscape may be modified for years to come.

Current Eurosceptic groups will “suffer”

“At the moment we have two groups catering toward the Eurosceptic,” explains Cas Mudde, whose research focuses on European, populist, radical-right parties.

To form an official group, at least 25 members of parliament must join and they must represent at least seven of the 28 member states of the European Union.

Mudde, who is Dutch but working at the University of Georgia in the US, told euronews: “The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) are the kind of ‘soft’ Eurosceptic, who by and large support the EU, but think it should be predominantly economic.”

The ECR currently has 56 MEPs, 7.3% of the total 766, provided in majority by the British Conservative Party and the Czech Republic’s Civic Democratic Party (ODS).

The future of the ECR does not look bright, according to Mudde. “The ECR will have problems after 2014 as various member parties will not make it back into the EP (such as the Belgian Flemish LDD and the Modern Hungary Movement) and two of the largest parties, the ODS and Conservative Party, will lose a lot of seats.”

For example, the Tories, the best-performing British party in the 2009 European elections with 27.7% of the national vote, now lag in the polls in third place behind UKIP and the Labour Party, with 21% of voter intentions.

Also, some minor parties of the ECR group, Mudde suggests, “might be more attracted to a ‘harder’ Eurosceptic group”.

As a result, the most recent projections for the 2014 European elections, made in collaboration between the European Parliament and TNS Opinion, give the ECR 41 MEPs, 5.46% of the total of 751.

The second alliance catering to Eurosceptics is the Europe of Freedom and Democracy (EFD) group, Mudde explains, with its “harder” Euro-scepticism doctrine. Thirty three MEPs are currently members of the EFD, equating to 4,3% of all seats in the European Parliament. Britain’s UKIP and Italy’s Lega Nord (Northern league) are its driving forces.

However, despite Nigel Farage and UKIP’s strong momentum in Britain, the EFD “are also going to suffer” in the coming elections, Mudde says

Latest projections give the EFD 3.86%, or 29 seats, after the 2014 European elections.

Other EFD members, Greece’s LAOS and France’s Mouvement pour la France, outshone by other right-wing parties in their respective countries, “will not return to the European Parliament,” Mudde says.

In addition, EFD is poised to lose members to more radical alliances. “The Lega Nord has committed to the European Alliance for Freedom (EAF) and rumour has it that the Slovak National Party will also join EAF,” added Mudde.

Further right, another new group?

The European Alliance for Freedom (EAF) is a pan-European political party, composed of far-right nationalist parties that also include hard Euroscepticism in their manifesto, such as France’s Front National, the Netherlands’ PVV and Austria’s FPÖ.

They hope, Reuters reports, to gain enough momentum to create a political group in the European Parliament of nationalist parties, which would entitle members to more office space and support staff as well as EU funds for meetings and publicity.

Their objective, as stated in a joint press conference of Geert Wilders and Marine Le Pen last November, is to liberate Europe from “the European elite, the monster in Brussels.”

A political group would be a crucial asset. “A non-attached MEP is not a real MEP, without means of action,” Ludovic de Danne, EU affairs adviser to Marine Le Pen, told euronews by phone. “a political group will allow us the same weight in debates as everybody else.

De Danne says the name of the prospective group is not ‘European Alliance for Freedom’ but still a work in progress. “It may contain the word ‘Freedom,” he says. “We are certain to have enough MEPs; and geographically [in terms of countries] we are very confident”

“The goal is to reach 10,” FPÖ Heinz-Christian Strache told Reuters last December while in Turin, where he said he and Geert Wilders, Dutch nationalist Freedom Party leader, were guests of the Italian anti-immigration Lega Nord.

Currently, according to Reuters, the European Alliance for Freedom has six parties: the Freedom parties of Austria and the Netherlands, the Italian Lega Nord, France’s National Front, Belgium’s Vlaams Belang and Sweden’s Democrats.

However, as Cas Mudde noted on a blog hosted by the Washington Post, the Swedish Democrats chairman Jimmie Åkesson “has said that the SD will only consider joining [the new group] after the Swedish parliamentary elections, to be held on 14 September 2014.”

The search for a seventh country to enter Le Pen and Wilders’ group may prove arduous. As mentioned by Mudde, the Slovak National Party could be the seventh member but both the Danish People’s Party and UKIP have rejected the idea of joining. In the meantime; the group itself rejects more extreme right-wing parties such as Hungary’s Jobbik or Greece’s Golden Dawn, according to Reuters.

A reshuffle of the Eurosceptic landscape?

The True Finns party, currently an EFD member with ties to both DFP and SD, refused to comment on whether it had been approached to join the EAF group.

However, True Finns Election Coordinator Pekka Sinisalo told euronews “there might be another entirely new Eurosceptic political group” after the European elections which the True Finns were “perhaps” planning to sit with, thus abandoning the EFD.

While that was news to him, the development of this hypothetical new group did not surprise Cas Mudde. His intuition is that “the remnants of the EFD are going to try and create a new group, which is to hold the middle between the ECR and EAF, and will be based largely on The Finns and UKIP (who will have a larger group) and the 1-2 MEPs from the Netherlands and the Danish DFP.”

“They will have a hard time finding MEPs from 7 countries, however, but might pick up single members of idiosyncratic groups or dissidents who split from ‘soft’ Eurosceptic groups,” the scholar explained.

He is also critical of the EAF group’s future. He believes that – due to inner political disagreements, past failures of far-rights groups in the EP and potential personal tensions – “the chances this group will be an important political actor in the next EP are slim to none.”

The arrival of the EAF could nonetheless have the effect of profoundly changing the Eurosceptic landscape in the European parliament.

By Thomas Seymat

Kurtofan posted:

Going to vote for the Left Front and despair when looking at the actual results

Badger of Basra posted:

Can you explain the difference between a European political party and the parliamentary groups? Like, Labour is in the "Party of European Socialists" but their parliamentary group is the PAS&D. Are they the same thing with different names?

Stefu posted:

Stuff about Finland

Mans posted:

Virtually all groups besides the Green and Left alliance believe in austerity and only show concern about austerity because it's not giving economic growth, not because of actual social consequences and the Green and Left groups are mostly useless and believe they can work side by side with the major financial institutions of Europe to crate socialism.

Mans posted:

All neoliberal parties will pressure their militants to go vote for their favorite alliances, which they allways do, to create a parliament of privatizing lunatics who even consider sexual education to be propaganda to turn children into gay abortionists. Since people are disillusioned with their lives and national politics, much less European politics, this means they will allways win the elections no matter what.

Mans posted:

gently caress this parliament charade, if a national parliament is already composed of a healthy dose of idiocy and corruption i'm sure the solution is an exterior parliament with even wealthier idiots that play pretend politics.

I'll be not giving a single gently caress about these elections but i guess it's good for a thread about it to exist.

The Left Bloc and CDU's picks are quite good, intelligent people so i'm sure they'd do a great work if they were sent to a place that actually mattered

quote:

• Alternative fuels infrastructure
  
• Animal health
  
• Framework for the recovery and resolution of credit institutions and investment firms
  
• Measures to reduce the cost of deploying high-speed electronic communications networks
  
• Consumer product safety
  
• Incidental catches of cetaceans (a personal favourite)
  
• Honey
  
• Shipments of waste
  
• New psychoactive substances
  

LemonDrizzle posted:

Good OP. The British press has been talking up Helle Thorning-Schmidt as a potential compromise candidate for the presidency of the commission - is she considered plausible elsewhere in Europe?

quote:

The European Parliament shall elect the president of the European Commission on the basis of a proposal made by the European Council, taking into account the European elections (article 17, paragraph 7 of the Treaty on European Union).

Mans posted:

gently caress this parliament charade, if a national parliament is already composed of a healthy dose of idiocy and corruption i'm sure the solution is an exterior parliament with even wealthier idiots that play pretend politics.

Junior G-man posted:

Thorning-Schmidt definitely has the papers for the job, but my money is still on Schultz - I know he wants the job badly.

Junior G-man posted:

LemonDrizzle posted:

Good OP. The British press has been talking up Helle Thorning-Schmidt as a potential compromise candidate for the presidency of the commission - is she considered plausible elsewhere in Europe?

Mans posted:

From my perspective, i can vote for the CDU or Left Bloc since all the other suggestions are neoliberal drones.

On the one hand, the Left Bloc goes so hard from tireless activists against capitalist oppression and exploitation to working alongside PS to actively defending the idea of a "debt pardon" under EU directions, which means still siding with the side that gave us such a beating of austerity in the hopes that the next centrist neoliberal parties won't continue the process of privatizations, money laundering and erosion of the well-fare state, which they will.

On the other hand, CDU's stance of direct opposition to EU institutions is much more agreeable to me because it's clear that the future of the EU is this situation being the status quo with possible signs of becoming much worse with every inevitable crisis. However their stance is so worthless due to their isolation that not even a million Mans voting would matter.

So i can vote for neoliberalism, protesters against neoliberalism but that don't reject neoliberal action in itself or opposition against neoliberalism but that it's clear at first that they'll be alone because they actually oppose EU authority and aren't fascist pieces of poo poo, which seems to be the standards of anyone who opposes the EU outside of the tail of Europe for some reason.

And there's just no way to convince people to vote for this charade. With a system that seems to be built to hide out it actually works so that people are never really sure who has any kind of responsibility in Europe (expect for the lazy south\fascist Merkel), there's just no way to have personal motivation to vote, much less convince people to do so.

I still believe the only change to the EU will happen when the poo poo hits the fan in national elections and the EU flips their poo poo and realize they need to change course.

Redeye Flight posted:

Who're the Left Bloc and the CDU, are those the S&D and the GUE/NGL? Or is one of them the Greens/EFA alliance? I'm assuming the Left Bloc and CDU are local-level equivalents of the federal-level parties.

Junior G-man posted:

Left Bloc and CDU are Portuguese national parties, I believe.

Junior G-man posted:

You really can't have your 'the EU is terrible and neoliberal but I'm not gonna vote in any direction to change or improve it' and eat it too. The only thing that not voting ensures is that the austerians and the fascists have an even bigger say, because the will turn out in droves for the next election.

Mans posted:

My optimism is that the European vote reaches 10% and only full on neoliberals reach power so we can accelerate the austerity cult process.

LemonDrizzle posted:

Notable historical successes of accelerationism:

VitalSigns posted:

The SPD's vote in the Reichstag to unanimously support the German Empire's 1914 declaration of war?

That was pretty successful in eliminating the Kaiser and letting them govern a German Republic like they always wanted...you know...eventually.

Redeye Flight posted:

I'm not sure I would call the consequences of that vote a success, by any real measure.

LemonDrizzle posted:

Notable historical successes of accelerationism:

Mans posted:

There will be change in the EU when people turn hard enough to give majorities to parties who oppose EU policies in their national elections. Not by choosing which person now deserves a five year vacation in Brussels for 4k euros a month.

floppo posted:

Perhaps someone here can help me with this. I'm a German citizen, but I've lived in another EU member state for some time. I registered to vote in this country and am on the rolls here. I just found out that I absolutely need to be in Germany on the day of the election, and in a quite random place (I've never lived there). My question is: can I vote in Germany by just showing up at a polling station with my passport? Figuring out how to vote by mail in the other country seems impossibly difficult?

Xoidanor posted:

Did Berlusconi seriously get 1 month of community service in punishment or did my newspaper just make a mistake?

Char posted:

I wanted to make a summary for the Italian situation, but guess what? poo poo's hosed up.
I'll do it nonetheless but this round of elections is turning into local politics: we're pretty much going to verify if Berlusconi's really dead, if Renzi's really our new Berlusconi and if Grillo has vision or is just a hack.

Badger of Basra posted:

Question about Renzi: he has talked up Tony Blair and said he's great and super cool. Do people outside the UK not realize that Tony Blair was terrible and widely loathed by the time he left?