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Who will you be voting for?
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A Progressive Conservative
A New Democrat
A Comedy Option
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Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

Guy DeBorgore posted:

That's assuming you actually want the NDP to win, which most NDPers do. If you just want the NDP to sit in 3rd place and keep the Liberals scared then yeah, I guess you'll be disappointed.

I'd posit that a lot of NDP supporters aren't NDP supporters because they want the NDP to win, but because they want left-wing policies to be implemented. This budget looks a whole lot like the Liberals delivering on longstanding NDP priorities on several fronts, and it might have been nice for the ONDP to take yes for an answer.

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Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

Janderbuilt posted:

If Hudak wins and the OLC gets privatized, would that mean that lottery winnings would then be taxable, like in the States?

No. Lottery winnings are exempt from tax at the federal level, and most provinces (including Ontario) are required by agreement with the federal government to use the same definition of taxable income as the federal government does.

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

I think I've discovered what the OLP campaign theme is going to be:


LEADERSHIP LEADERSHIP LEADERSHIP LEADERSHIP LEADERSHIP LEADERSHIP LEADERSHIP LEADERSHIP LEADERSHIP LEADERSHIP

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

Lobok posted:

Are the NDP going to go after Hudak at all because his plans for the TTC are much easier to explain in their crappiness. He wants Ontario to take the money-making subways and leave Toronto with money-losing buses.

There are two answers to this:

1. This is day -2 of a 36 day campaign. Obviously, when Horwath's in Toronto, her main opponent is the OLP, and she's going to go after them. If she's London or Niagara Falls, she'll go after Hudak.
(Did you know the writ hasn't even been dropped yet? Weird!)

2. The OLP and the ONDP face more incentives to go after each other than they do to go after the PCs, for two reasons:
-There are more Lib/NDP swing voters than either Lib/PC or PC/NDP swing voters. If there are any large shifts in public opinion, odds are they're coming on the left.
-The unions are going to be carpet bombing the province with anti-Hudak ads. Last election, the OLP spent 5 million in ads, the PCPO spent 5 million in ads, and the ONDP spent 1.8 million in ads (4.2 million total!). Unions spent over 6 million in attacks ads with Hudak as sole target, and they're poised to do it again this year. If the PCs are already going to get flooded with negative ads, it makes sense that the ONDP and OLP would throw some mud each others' way to try to be the beneficiaries.

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

Well.

quote:

‎BARRIE — Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak says a Tory government would cut 100,000 jobs from the Ontario public sector.
Hudak said the 10 per cent cut will affect all workers, except for nurses, doctors and police, and will bring employment back to 2009 levels.
“Our government is growing bigger than we can afford,” he said in a news release prior to speaking to party supporters at a campaign stop.
“We’re spending more and more with money we don’t have, and piling up enormous debt,” stated Hudak, adding that the cuts would save $2 billion.

All ministries except health would see cuts. 10% fewer teachers, which he says can be done by increasing class sizes.

:rip: 2014 PC campaign, May 7 2014-May 9 2014.

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

There are roughly 500k people working in education in Ontario. Only 92k work in the government bureaucracy.

If fully half the job cuts are teachers, man. Open the bloodgates.

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009


Of course, local governments and local school boards are under provincial control, so it's really more like 1.1 million under provincial control.

But the 236k who work in health are off limits, as are the 25k police officers.

And the 274k who work in local government boards are probably off limits too.

So you're looking at cuts of 100k out of the remaining ~600k employees.

Pinterest Mom fucked around with this message at 16:51 on May 9, 2014

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009


Kathleen Wynne has been elected three times.

Pinterest Mom fucked around with this message at 18:22 on May 10, 2014

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

vyelkin posted:

loving :lol: what a shambles this campaign is.

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

Ugh. Andrea Horwath just announced that she can think of nothing better to do with 600 million dollars than to remove provincial HST on electricity bills.

This is a double whammy - it's both ineffective and remarkably regressive.

I really, really dislike the ONDP.


e: Oh and Hudak is promising 40,000 jobs by cutting hydro rates. Yeah okay.

Pinterest Mom fucked around with this message at 14:28 on May 12, 2014

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

PK loving SUBBAN posted:

This election is one of the silliest I've ever seen in terms of pie in the sky promises. Usually we don't hear this kind of stuff from parties until the last 2-3 days before the vote.

e: Have a link on that HST promise? I can't find it. :)

Here's the press release.

quote:

Andrea Horwath, Leader of Ontario's New Democrats, joined Thunder Bay—Superior North candidate Andrew Foulds and Thunder Bay—Atikokan candidate Mary Kozorys to talk about the NDP's plan to put money back into the budgets of middle class families by taking the HST off hydro bills.

"Middle class families are getting squeezed like never before and nothing squeezes them harder than hydro bills. Taking the HST off hydro bills is a simple achievable step that will put money back into the pockets of every Ontario family and help make life more affordable," said Horwath.

An NDP government will take the provincial portion of the HST off of hydro bills starting in 2016 saving a typical Ontario family about $120 every year.

Nothing squeezes your typical everyday middle class family's kitchen table more than hydro bills!

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

Leofish posted:

What would be the most effective ways of bringing hydro rates down? I got a flier from Bob Chiarelli about removing the debt retirement charge, a savings of $70 a year, and now Horwath says she'll cut the HST to save $120 a year. Hudak's plan to end the feed-in tarrif and cut green energy subsidies will save the provincial government $20 billion but he says he can't lower the rates themselves, but don't worry, 40,000 jobs!

Also in that Star story is Wynne promising the Liberals would save money by not building new nuclear plants!

Why do rates need to come down? We don't want people using more energy, we want them using less.

If the problem is "hard working every day families don't have enough money", the solution is not "cut hydro rates", because hydro rate cuts disproportionately help out wealthy people. We have ways to target tax credits to families who need them. Cutting hydro rates is a dumb, populist solution.

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

This photo is the most perfect encapsulation of the ONDP.





(That man is actually the ONDP candidate in Sudbury.)

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

Kafka Esq. posted:

I'm not an expert in bond markets, but is that how it works? I thought the vast majority of it was bought at a fixed rate and servicing the interest happens at that rate only.

A lot of the debt rolls over every year. Right now, debt from around 2006-2009 is coming to term and needs to be rolled over to new borrowing, so while the deficit is only ~12 billion dollars, the province actually has to borrow 36 billion dollars from the markets because 24 billion of debt matured and needs to be reborrowed.

A 1% increase in bond rates would be a 360 million dollars/year hit to the budget.

The chapter on debt management is always the most fascinating of the budget.

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

Kafka Esq. posted:

It's over 20 years.

Over 8, actually.

But if the labour force grows by just 1% a year, that's ~600k new people entering the job market over those eight years.


e:

Ikantski posted:

But you wouldn't compare it to the entire budget. How much are we spending more than we're making? 12 billion dollars. How much would we be spending more than we make if interest rates went up 1%, 15.5 billion dollars.
12.360 billion dollars, actually.

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

Meanwhile, Andrea Horwath will stop the gravy train.

quote:

New Democrat Leader Andrea Horwath says an NDP government would appoint a cabinet minister specifically responsible for savings.

She says the minister of savings and accountability would be tasked with finding savings of 0.5 per cent a year.
That's about $600 million annually.

Horwath says if she's elected premier, she would count the pennies.

She also says the Liberals have been wasteful with tax dollars.

The NDP would merge ministries and government agencies as part of a plan to cut spending.

Efficiencies!

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

Blade_of_tyshalle posted:

I've always wondered about those signs, in general. What's the purpose of them? I'm already getting sign-fatigue just walking around and seeing dueling Matt Young and John Fraser signs at every intersection in my neighbourhood. Are they intended to convince people, or help canvassers know which houses to skip over?

AFAIK, whatever research exists tends to indicate that signs have basically no effect on election results. Partisans like them, though!


(The research is mostly US based. In a multi-party system, I suppose signs could be used by a party not traditionally in contention in a riding to send the message that "we're showing up this time" and give partisans of that party who would be inclined to vote strategically permission to vote for that party.)

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

bunnyofdoom posted:

Ha ha holy poo poo.

The only party with a full slate right now is the PCs. The OLP is also missing a few.

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

tagesschau posted:

The Liberals have a full slate of 107 candidates.

I was going by the usually excellent Pundit's Guide, who was showing a few vacant ridings for the OLP still. Looks like those vacant ridings have been filled on the OLP site though, so hey. Those candidates were probably selected very recently.

e: Absurdly, there are more NDP candidates listed at Pundit's Guide than there are on the NDP's own website.

Pinterest Mom fucked around with this message at 00:23 on May 15, 2014

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

"Hopefully we'll be able to swindle some yokels into voting for us"? That's an entirely toxic attitude.

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

Aagar posted:

DynamicSloth (or anyone): I'm confused - how can you cut cabinet ministers but keep the ministries? Do they just operate as autonomous departments and are accountable to the Premier? I just can't picture how it works. Especially:

Ministers are responsible for areas of policy. Ministries are bureaucratic entities. Sometimes, you have several ministers dealing with the same ministry, or ministers whose responsibilities span several ministries, or even ministers who don't have set responsibilities at all.

Currently, in the Ontario cabinet, there's someone who is "Minister responsible for Seniors". That's not a real job. There's a Ministry of Child and Youth Services, which surely duplicates a lot of the work the Ministry of Community and Social Services does. You're going to find overlap between the ministries of Environment, Energy, Natural Resources, Northern Development and Mines, and Rural Affairs - maybe you only name two or three ministers over those five ministries. There's something called a "Ministry of Research and Innovation" which exists for some reason, distinct from both the education ministries and the Ministry of Economic Development.

A lot about cabinet composition is up to the whims of the current premier.

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

Badger of Basra posted:

Why does ONDP do best among people with only a high school education? Are these the much spoken of "yokels"?

Who doesn't have a university degree?
-People currently in university
-First nations
-Lower income people
-Blue collar unionised workers

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

Sometimes, when travelling, Andrea Horwath expenses her meal, and, with the help of a leak from the OLP, The Sun is on it.

quote:

According to Freedom of Information documents obtained by the Ontario Liberals, the socialist leader and her assistant have charged taxpayers for muffins, bagels, Tim Hortons lunch combos and even a 25-cent Oshawa parking tab.

In the period from January 2011 to December 2013, Horwath and two assistants made well over 100 food claims as she travelled the province.

The chits handed to taxpayers show they ate well with more than 60 receipts for seafood — calamari, mussels, perch, pickerel, salmon, shrimp, trout, sea scallops and lobster bisque, the documents show.

Which is the real Andrea Horwath? The Andrea Horwath who eats a Tim Hortons lunch combo, or the Andrea Horwath who eats lobster bisque?

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

"In a statement, Liberal MPP and Education Minister Liz Sandals said Horwath’s school plan was an attempt to change the topic from revelations that she expensed coffee and muffins while criticizing others for the same behaviour."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6Q4oxx_JJY

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

Hand Knit posted:

I told him that my family, which has traditionally voted straight NDP because they are the leftest of the three major parties, are considering voting OLP because of the direction Horwath is campaigning. He implied that we're not the only people in Toronto who feel this way. The "in Toronto" qualifier struck me, making me wonder how well what Horwath is doing is playing with "yokels in Sarnia."

Polling data suggests that ONDP is doing very well in SW Ontario - up 5-10 points since the last election. It really seems that everywhere south and west of Toronto, ONDP is seriously competitive in places it hasn't been before and where not even the 2011 federal NDP was able to compete.



Today's Toronto Sun has a wraparound from the ONDP. It's even more deceptive than the ones the ONDP has managed to place previously.


e: I think the "PAID ADVERTISEMENT" disclaimer is that tiny white text up on the top right of the black box.

Pinterest Mom fucked around with this message at 15:04 on May 21, 2014

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

ONDP platform here.

Apparently the ONDP no longer cares about strengthening pensions.

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

:negative:



e: Best Premier
Andrea Horwath: 38 per cent
Kathleen Wynne: 32 per cent
Tim Hudak: 30 per cent

everything is terrible

Pinterest Mom fucked around with this message at 23:14 on May 22, 2014

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

I remember Fightback twerps pointing to that and (essentially) saying "Mission accomplished".

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

vyelkin posted:

iirc all the indications we've gotten are that labour wanted them to support the Wynne budget, so in a sense this entire election is the NDP turning their back on labour even if none of their specific policies are anywhere near as anti-union as the PCs.

Labour isn't a monolith. The labour group which supported the budget most strongly was Unifor, a descendant of CAW, which has left the NDP behind in favour of "strategic voting" a decade ago.

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

Solis posted:

I think the NDP have pretty much given up trying to win. I got a call in the middle of the day asking for support and when I responded that thanks to Horwath's pandering to the right I was decidedly less interested in going NDP provincially they didn't even try and engage at all, just said 'thanks for your time.' If the people trying to drum up support for your party aren't even that excited by it that's not a good sign.

That's always been SOP for phone canvassers. They're told very explicitly that their job is to find votes, not to try to convince anyone or argue with them. If someone tells you they're not voting for your team, you end the call politely.

Depending on the resources of the campaign, you might get a callback later on from a more trusted/experienced canvasser whose job it will be to convince you to vote ONDP.

Nothing about your interaction is out of the ordinary!

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

tagesschau posted:

The video says that it's possible to get a majority of the votes under an AV system and not win. This is completely false. It's possible to get a plurality and not win (this would have happened to a lot of Tories in GTA ridings in the 2011 federal election if AV had been in place).

It's possible to get a majority of votes under an AV system and not win.

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

tagesschau posted:

In which race did that occur? I don't have time to check 150 races to figure out which one you're talking about.

The Labor Party received 45% of the seats despite 51% of the country preferring it to the Coalition.

If the point you're trying to make is "the national popular vote doesn't matter and the formation of the government should be up to then particular idiosyncrasies of where the vote happens to be concentrated", whatever.

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

"The PCs can't count" seems like the kind of charge that sinks a campaign. It's easy to understand, it's easy to mock, and it's really damning about the basic competence of the PCs.

Given that the second choice of PC voters seems to be the NDP, I think there's a serious chance that the next two weeks becomes the story of who can form official opposition.

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

Can you decline your Special Ballot? :getin:

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

bunnyofdoom posted:

Did I hear correctly that the OPP released their first ever political ad saying don't vote PC?

What? In what universe would that possibly be true?


e: The OPP union released an attack ad on the PCs. Coincidentally, they negotiated an 8% wage hike with the OLP, which Hudak wants to freeze.

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

Who are all these businesses who are gravely concerned about the government's balance sheet?

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

"I wish driving were more affordable" - Andrea Horwath, environmentalist

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

bunnyofdoom posted:

40% actually.

Remember, there is another city in Ontario that has more than a million people. Why aren;'t we getting our rear end kissed too? (I actually know why)

Ottawa-Gatineau has over a million people. Gatinois can't vote.

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Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

quote:

In Vaughan this morning, Kathleen Wynne said that if Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives win a plurality of seats in a minority legislature, she’ll let them govern rather than try to team up with Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats to hold on to government.
http://politics.theglobeandmail.com/2014/06/04/kathleen-wynne-shoots-down-liberal-ndp-coalition/

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