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You know, looking back at the draft, I think I may have hosed up not taking Manning with my second pick. I was so focused on wide receiver and my belief that Manning is gonna regress, that I may have just missed an opportunity to have Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning leading my teams. Remember this post. I've made a huge mistake.
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Aug 30, 2014 04:51
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Sataere posted:You know, looking back at the draft, I think I may have hosed up not taking Manning with my second pick. I was so focused on wide receiver and my belief that Manning is gonna regress, that I may have just missed an opportunity to have Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning leading my teams. Remember this post. I've made a huge mistake. Manning is a bona fide first round option, and I agree with you. I would have loved to have any combination of a mid first round player and PFM.
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Aug 30, 2014 04:55
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Clearly not ESPN. Thank you. You're the only person who thought this was as interesting as I do anyways, ask and you shall receive: http://sand.riordan.io/c4c_pull/ if only I applied myself like this to my career... DrPossum fucked around with this message at 05:02 on Aug 30, 2014 |
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Aug 30, 2014 04:56
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Sataere posted:You know, looking back at the draft, I think I may have hosed up not taking Manning with my second pick. I was so focused on wide receiver and my belief that Manning is gonna regress, that I may have just missed an opportunity to have Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning leading my teams. Remember this post. I've made a huge mistake. I was stunned he made it back to me. I think he'll regress as well, but even with some regression at a late 2nd round pick I had to go for it. I was so close to picking up AD with my first round too, but I have him in my primary league so I figured I would diversify on the chance he goes down and not be crying over 2 leagues. DrPossum posted:Thank you. You're the only person who thought this was as interesting as I do I think it's quite interesting as well. I'm surprised how close to 0 I was this draft.
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Aug 30, 2014 05:05
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Honestly, I think what you are doing is awesome. I understand just enough of it to realize I don't understand it at all.  Been a long time since I've done statistics. Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Manning is a bona fide first round option, and I agree with you. I would have loved to have any combination of a mid first round player and PFM. I got so hung up on not reaching for a quarterback that I ignored tremendous value. Then again, I do think he will regress this year, so maybe I was right. Despite all evidence to the contrary, I just don't trust him. ^^^^^^^^ EDIT: I wasn't kidding when I said I had him as my number one back, even in a PPR league. I seriously expect him to be AD from two years ago this year. I think people have forgotten just how incredible he is.
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Aug 30, 2014 05:06
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OK, so I modified the specific picks that it shows to ones that are at least 1 sigma out, and that turns out to be a much better measure of "getting good value" I think: http://sand.riordan.io/c4c_pull/
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Aug 30, 2014 05:13
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DrPossum posted:OK, so I modified the specific picks that it shows to ones that are at least 1 sigma out, and that turns out to be a much better measure of "getting good value" I think: So having 4 green dudes and 0 red dudes is a good thing, right? Giving thanks to my brother here. I mailed him a round- by round guide of what I wanted and he nailed it for me. I also love how ESPN has me dead last, footballguys 3rd, and the other middle of the pack. FANTASY FOOTBALL!
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Aug 30, 2014 05:32
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Lock posted:So having 4 green dudes and 0 red dudes is a good thing, right? Yes, exactly (or at least according to fantasy pros). ymmv
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Aug 30, 2014 05:36
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Lock posted:So having 4 green dudes and 0 red dudes is a good thing, right? Two of those green picks I had as my next pick =( My 2 red picks I'm ok with. I waited too long on a TE because I tracked how many had been taking incorrectly and had to grab someone so Gates it was. Now of course I'm torn because I have Green in Dyanasty so in one league I want him to take over and in the other I want Gates to be the guy all year. Sataere posted:EDIT: I wasn't kidding when I said I had him as my number one back, even in a PPR league. I seriously expect him to be AD from two years ago this year. I think people have forgotten just how incredible he is. Oh I know. If I didn't have him in my main league I would have grabbed him right away. That said I'm happy with Shady.
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Aug 30, 2014 05:42
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It's weird that all of the projections like my team more than I do (espn gave me an A+ wtf?) Waited too long on TE, could've waited longer on QB, and this is literally the first time I've taken a defense that early, but no one else available was appealing to me at all (I think I already had both qb's at that point) I'm also probably gonna get hosed in bye weeks so if you also hate your team get at me and maybe we could exchange parts we don't hate
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Aug 30, 2014 06:09
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The only thing this draft did was reassure me I am out of my depth competing with you fine goons.
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Aug 30, 2014 06:22
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Look you fuckin graph get off my rear end about Big Baby Hawk you don't know me.
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Aug 30, 2014 06:32
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DrPossum posted:OK, so I modified the specific picks that it shows to ones that are at least 1 sigma out, and that turns out to be a much better measure of "getting good value" I think: I think you get more out of this, and I love the callouts for picks greater than one Sigma. Could you show the entire draft for each person? I would love to see a color coded draft board showing who reached where in various rounds. Seriously, this is some really good stuff. If I ever make a BeerSheets website something like this would be an amazing evaluation tool.
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Aug 30, 2014 06:42
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:I think you get more out of this, and I love the callouts for picks greater than one Sigma. Could you show the entire draft for each person? I would love to see a color coded draft board showing who reached where in various rounds. next iteration: http://sand.riordan.io/c4c/ I made a change where instead of the difference in the FP rank, I do the difference in the consensus average they quote which I think is more sensible. It has a tendency to flag RBs > 1 sigma this way, but whatevs I guess the next thing to do would be to weight the histogram entries by beersheets value? DrPossum fucked around with this message at 14:54 on Aug 30, 2014 |
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Aug 30, 2014 14:50
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DrPossum posted:next iteration: I like it. Weighting it by value would be interesting. I would also see what would happen if you put the readings and colors on a draft board.
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Aug 30, 2014 15:18
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I think so too, though its a bit more work. If you guys want to compare, this was the yospos draft: http://sand.riordan.io/ydpos/ its definitely more.... colorful. Note I had to blow up the x axis on the histograms by a factor of 2 edit: I was just thinking a quantitative analysis/tools thread might be an interesting idea, but I don't know how many people here do this kind of stuff in the raw
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Aug 30, 2014 15:23
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I disagree with these graphs because they make an assumption of a hive mind & don't allow for independent thought. Also because they make me look bad.
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Aug 30, 2014 15:24
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Spoeank posted:I disagree with these graphs because they make an assumption of a hive mind & don't allow for independent thought. I'm of the opinion that you learn more about someone's drafting style from these rather than if those teams at face are going to be "good" or not. In the yospos link you can see there are some people who are just obviously reaping in perceived value or throwing darts. At the end of the day I think having a decent draft and then doing a thoughtful job managing rosters/waiver wire (when you actually have data that's infinitely more reliable) is what makes a good team I agree with you on the hivemind; predictions and rankings are just not that accurate. This year I "reached" in one league for Doug Martin at 10 and Sanders at 51 and I'm not looking back with either those. Last year my first and third picks went to TRich and Julio and you can see how that worked out. I think its what makes this fun
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Aug 30, 2014 15:34
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They're actually super cool  It actually does reflect my drafting style, though. I like to fill my bench with darts & upside guys. I want to make sure I get them so I don't mind reaching for them. Some guys in this league I can admit to over-drafting to ensure I got them.
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Aug 30, 2014 15:42
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Spoeank posted:They're actually super cool It hates us for the same reason. I did the exact same thing. Especially in this draft, we had to reach for the upside guys, or they were going to be gone
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Aug 30, 2014 15:46
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I completely agree, and if anything it reflects poorly on my own personal draft strategy. This is particularly true when you're on the ends, and having 22 picks before your next selection means you're going to have to reach to be happy. That's probably why it doesn't like that I drafted Gronk. Also Kyle Orton is now throwing to Mike Williams. 
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Aug 30, 2014 16:02
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How do I save my avatar to ESPN's page? I just got a picture and it seems I can't get it to show
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Aug 30, 2014 16:06
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Sataere posted:How do I save my avatar to ESPN's page? I just got a picture and it seems I can't get it to show For the Song of Ice and IR league, I just went to team settings and did an upload from imgur. It worked fine.
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Aug 30, 2014 16:14
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:I completely agree, and if anything it reflects poorly on my own personal draft strategy. This is particularly true when you're on the ends, and having 22 picks before your next selection means you're going to have to reach to be happy. That's probably why it doesn't like that I drafted Gronk. I wish I had had this for my mock drafts. It's like watching yourself give a speech on camera also, gently caress yes Kyle Orton. greatest Iowan  he played at a high school not far from mine and we're about the same age
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Aug 30, 2014 16:49
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Working on the OP now, and updated the FAAB for everyone. Your new FAAB totals reflect your remaining funds. uublog, jabro, and Spoeank might want to donate some money. Finally the FAAB minimum bid needs to be decided. Should we set it for $1 or nothing? Right now it's $1. We also need to make sure we're all happy with the playoff settings. Right now it's 2 sets of 2 week playoffs, Week 14-15 and Week 16-17. Given that Week 17 is such a crap shoot I'm comfortable changing that, either moving the playoffs one week earlier (Weeks 13-16), changing it to one week playoffs, or just making the championship one week. I think my preference would be for either 1 week playoffs, or making the championship game 1 week. Beer4TheBeerGod fucked around with this message at 18:30 on Aug 30, 2014 |
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Aug 30, 2014 18:26
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I like $0 bids because I'm an add/drop whore. Also what exactly ended up being the decision for money usage? The last couple weeks have been a blur with a bunch of stuff happening, I just want to make sure I have it all squared up.
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Aug 30, 2014 18:29
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Spoeank posted:I like $0 bids because I'm an add/drop whore. Also what exactly ended up being the decision for money usage? The last couple weeks have been a blur with a bunch of stuff happening, I just want to make sure I have it all squared up. Here's how it works: 1. Your FAAB budget equals the amount of money you've donated. 2. You can also cheat using the mulligan mechanic. The way that works is simple; if you have a player on your bench who scored more points than a starter, you can declare a mulligan by removing an amount of money equal to the points difference between the bench player and starter (rounded up to the nearest dollar). I will then edit your starters and you will get the new points value. This must be done before kickoff of the first game on Thursday.
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Aug 30, 2014 18:32
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Thanks. Dropped $40. also I'm planning on changing my charity. By the time the season ends, the IV Victims Fund will likely no longer have a use (as it was to assist the victims of the Isla Vista shootings a few months back). Spoeank fucked around with this message at 18:50 on Aug 30, 2014 |
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Aug 30, 2014 18:44
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That's fine.
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Aug 30, 2014 18:53
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Because most of my management decisions are reactionary and impulsive, my team (and coach) is now That Guy. He will lead us to victory, and fresh water for
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Aug 30, 2014 19:34
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Teeter posted:Because most of my management decisions are reactionary and impulsive, my team (and coach) is now That Guy. I'm gonna go shift some paradigms now. Spoeank posted:For the Song of Ice and IR league, I just went to team settings and did an upload from imgur. It worked fine. Yeah, that is what I tried, but poo poo ain't working. I'll give it more effort later.
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Aug 30, 2014 20:09
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I have no strong opinion about the schedule. Whatever's clever. Can we put our FAAB money towards trades? Or is that too much work for the commish?
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Aug 30, 2014 20:28
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The Zack posted:I have no strong opinion about the schedule. Whatever's clever. How would you put money towards trades? Beer, I'm out of the house today. As soon as I get home I'll throw some money into the fund.
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Aug 30, 2014 20:30
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The Zack posted:I have no strong opinion about the schedule. Whatever's clever. Trades are free
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Aug 30, 2014 20:44
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Sataere posted:Trades are free Only for people who don't steal promising WRs with a drug problem from me.
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Aug 30, 2014 20:50
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I meant to sweeten the trade. For example CJ Spiller + cash considerations for Jamaal Charles. That sort of thing.
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Aug 30, 2014 21:39
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The Zack posted:I meant to sweeten the trade. For example CJ Spiller + cash considerations for Jamaal Charles. That sort of thing. Oh, yeah I'm all down for that if there's a way to declare it ahead of time.
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Aug 30, 2014 21:51
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Is there a way to trade FAAB money? I've never actually heard of that before Btw I'll do some donating this weekend, I've been short on funds for a long-rear end time but I was supposed to start a job that paid last week and welp
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Aug 30, 2014 23:54
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I imagine you can just tell me here and I'll move it.
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Aug 31, 2014 00:15
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Just gonna ask the league this then out of curiosity: How much, pure cash, for an AJ Green, Julio, Marshall, Nelson type?
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Aug 31, 2014 01:48
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