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Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
This was kind of fun last year so I figured we do it again. Let's see how we did last year:

FoF: Andy Dalton will become a starter quality fantasy quarterback this year. (extendedsolo: Fiction, Reality: He was QB5 in standard scoring)
FoF: Lamar Miller is a top 10 RB at the end of the season fantasy wise. (jerkstore77: Fiction, Reality: He was RB39)
FoF: The top 3 fantasy QBs come year end will be the usual holy trinity of Rodgers, Brees, Manning. (Professor Moriarty: Fiction, Reality: Rodgers Got Hurt)
FoF: ESPN will finally legitimize dynasty leagues by actually implementing standard sequential drafting. (Mr. Trifecta: Fiction, Reality: Nope)
FoF: Randall Cobb will be a top 5 WR this year. (keldegar: Fiction, Reality: Got Hurt)
FoF: Ryan Mathews will have more top 10 fantasy RB weeks than broken collarbones this year (Beer4TheBeerGod: Fact. Reality: RB12, No Injuries)
FoF: Broncos will be an every-week starting DST. (blarzgh: Fact, Reality: DST13)
FoF: Twelve weeks of Gronkowski +4weeks of a replacement level TE > Tony Gonzales or Jason Witten. (keldegar: Fact, Reality: Played 7 games, TE16)
FoF: Green Bay Packers will have a top 5 fantasy D/ST this year. (Perry the Platypus: Fiction, Reality: DST22)
FoF: The AFC north sends three teams to the playoffs this year (Beer4TheBeerGod: Fiction, Reality: Nope)
FoF: There will not be an Alfred Morris sleeper equivalent this year. (oldskool: Fiction, Reality: Julius Thomas was TE3)
FoF: Taking Sanchez over Geno is a wise move in 2QB leagues. (uublog: Fiction, Reality: LOL Sanchez)
FoF: Michael Vick is the best Eagles QB this season, and in the top 15 league-wide. (keldegar: Fact, Reality: Nick loving Foles)
FoF: Jamaal Charles will finish as the #1 fantasy running back (Anubis: Fiction, Reality: RB1)
FoF: Sam Bradford becomes a top 15 QB with the addition of Tavon Austin and a much improved offensive line, combined with the loss of Jackson forcing more of the offense to gear towards the air. (Mr.Trifecta: Fiction, Reality: Bradford got hurt)
FoF: Greg "The Leg" Zuerlein will average more points a game then Jason Witten this year. (Beer4TheBeerGod: Fiction, Reality: gently caress Kickers)
FoF: Speaking of, Steven Jackson gets more touches than all other ATL RB's combined. (Beer4TheBeerGod: Fact, Reality: Fact, although he was the RB30 so it didn't matter)
FoF: Darrius Heyward-Bey will be a bona-fide WR2 this year. (blarzgh: Fiction, Reality: Never trust an Al Davis pick)
FoF: your team will be better this year if you draft RB, QB, RB than if you go RB, RB, WR... (keldegar: Depends, Reality: Depends)
FoF: Le'Veon Bell will be this year's Doug Martin in fantasy (Anubis: Fiction, Reality: Bell was RB14, Eddie Lacy was RB7)
FoF: Dwayne Bowe out performs Larry Fitzgerald in ppr. (blarzgh: Fiction, Reality: Nope)
FoF: Tony Romo and all his weapons finishes the year with more fantasy points than Tom Brady (Doppelganger: Fact, Reality: Fact)
FoF: Barring injury, Chris Ivory is a solid RB2 this year.(Dirt Worshipper: Fiction, Reality: No injuries, RB47)
FoF: The Bengals produce a fantasy-startable receiver (wideout or tight end) not named AJ Green. Startable in terms of say, standard scoring 12 team. (GNU Order: Fact, Reality: Fact, Jones was WR21 in 0 PPR)
FoF: Tony Gonzalez and/or Jason Witten fall out of the Top 5 TE's this year (Beer4TheBeerGod: Fact, Reality: Jason Witten was TE6)
FoF: "QB is Deep" this is year is a myth. (Anubis: Fiction, Reality: Should've drafted Peyton)
FoF: Robert Griffin fails to learn from last year's mistakes and continues running into contact, making himself a horrible injury risk. (blarzgh: Fiction, Reality: No injuries, but he still sucked)
FoF: theOakland Raiders field a top 15 Fantasy WR this year. (Spoeank: Fictioniest of Fiction, Reality: Raiders have receivers?)
FoF: Brandon Myers is a top-5 TE this year (in PPR, say). (Tiptoes: Fiction, Reality: TE19)
FoF: Cecil Shorts not only picks up where he left off last year but improves after offseason training with Larry Fitzgerald. Top 15 finish in PPR leagues. (Honore_De_Balzac: Fact, Reality: WR41)
FoF: DeMarco Murray will play 12-15 games this year, and finish a top 10 RB. (Beer4TheBeerGod: Fact, Reality: RB6)
FoF: The Injury Bug will demand the sacrifice of one more ACL before the preseason ends. (Ishin: Fact, Reality: THE INJURY BUG DEMANDS SACRIFICE!)
FoF: Brady, despite a reduction in weapons, will match or pass his yardage/TD totals of last year. (Professor Moriarty: Fact, Reality: Belichick did not find a way)
FoF: Reggie Bush will get more points in PPR leagues this year than Shane Vereen. (Beer4TheBeerGod: Fact, Reality: Reggie Bush was RB10, Vereen wasn't flex worthy)
FoF: Roy Helu will have fantasy value this year. (Nybble: Fiction, Reality: Value was there on individual weeks, but overall he wasn't rosterable)
FoF: There is currently an ADP RB30 or worse that will break the top 10 this season. (Tom Gorman: Fiction, Reality: Knowshon Moreno)
FoF: Matthew Stafford will finish with LESS overall points in 2013 than in 2012 (standard) (Honore_De_Balzac: Fiction, Reality: 300 fewer yards, 9 more touchdowns)
FoF: Knowshon Moreno will be the most fantasy relevant Bronco running back. (Beer4TheBeerGod: Fiction. Reality: RB4)

And let's get it started off:

FoF: Johnny Manziel will outperform RGIII this season.

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jabro
Mar 25, 2003

July Mock Draft 2014

1st PLACE
RUNNER-UP
got the knowshon


Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

This was kind of fun last year so I figured we do it again. Let's see how we did last year:

FoF: The Bengals produce a fantasy-startable receiver (wideout or tight end) not named AJ Green. Startable in terms of say, standard scoring 12 team. (GNU Order: Fact, Reality: Fact, Jones was WR21 in 0 PPR)

FoF: Johnny Manziel will outperform RGIII this season.

Fiction. It won't be even close.


I'm disputing that Jones decision. This is Jones weekly production in 0 PPR format.

3.5
9.8
0
4.7
16.5
11.7
36.2
6.6
0.9
0.8
BYE
1.2
11.7
10.8
9.1
12.1


FoF: The Giants will have a 1000 yard rusher this season who finishes in the top 20 of scoring for RBs.

Diqnol
May 10, 2010

jabro posted:


FoF: The Giants will have a 1000 yard rusher this season who finishes in the top 20 of scoring for RBs.

Fact.

FoF: Lance Dunbar is a top 25 RB this year in PPR.

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

anime gently caress pillow posted:

Fact.

FoF: Lance Dunbar is a top 25 RB this year in PPR.

Fiction. I see Dunbar contributing, but Murray won't be dinged up long enough for Dunbar to crack the top 25.


FoF: Ryan Tannehill will still be (or amongst the Top 5) the most-sacked quarterback in the league.

Suave Fedora fucked around with this message at 15:16 on Aug 1, 2014

Marshmallow Blue
Apr 25, 2010

Suave Fedora posted:

FoF: Ryan Tannehill will still be (or amongst the Top 5) the most-sacked quarterback in the league.

Fact for top 5

FOF: Montee Ball lives up to the hype and finished as a top 10RB

Marshmallow Blue fucked around with this message at 14:51 on Aug 1, 2014

Teemu Pokemon
Jun 19, 2004

To sign them is my real test

With full no movement clause
I'm going to say Fact, but barely. I doubt he finishes higher than RB8


FoF: Jay Cutler finishes the season as a top-10 QB in standard scoring

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Obama Yo Mama posted:

I'm going to say Fact, but barely. I doubt he finishes higher than RB8


FoF: Jay Cutler finishes the season as a top-10 QB in standard scoring

Fact. You can't expect Forte, Marshall, and Jeffery to all be top tier weapons and not given value to the guy throwing the ball. He was on track to do so last year.

FoF: The Miami run game will be a disaster and none of the players will be rosterable.

Marshmallow Blue
Apr 25, 2010

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

Fact. You can't expect Forte, Marshall, and Jeffery to all be top tier weapons and not given value to the guy throwing the ball. He was on track to do so last year.

FoF: The Miami run game will be a disaster and none of the players will be rosterable.

If we can answer more than one FOF:

Fact: Miami's O-Line will continue to struggle to protect both QB and open running lanes

FOF: Seattle will not be a top 3 Fantasy Def

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Marshmallow Blue posted:

If we can answer more than one FOF:

Fact: Miami's O-Line will continue to struggle to protect both QB and open running lanes

FOF: Seattle will not be a top 3 Fantasy Def

Fiction.

FOF: Anquan Boldin will end the season with more fantasy points (in PPR and non-PPR) than Crabtree

Drunk Nerds
Jan 25, 2011

Just close your eyes
Fun Shoe

Leperflesh posted:

Fiction.

FOF: Anquan Boldin will end the season with more fantasy points (in PPR and non-PPR) than Crabtree

Fiction. Crabtree's 6 td catches of over 20 yards will more than overshadow boldin's production, even in ppr.

FoF: Doug Martin will be a top 12 rb in non ppr

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!
Fiction. I think Lovie and Tedford are going to disappoint Martin owners this year.

FoF: Cam Newton doesn't need any weapons and ends the year as a Top 5 QB yet again.

Harold Cooplowski
Sep 11, 2013

Tiptoes posted:

Fiction. I think Lovie and Tedford are going to disappoint Martin owners this year.

FoF: Cam Newton doesn't need any weapons and ends the year as a Top 5 QB yet again.

Fiction. Smith at least had a chance of breaking away and getting open a few times.

Though it does remind me:

FoF: Greg Olsen will finish as a Top 5 TE.

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Harold Cooplowski posted:

Fiction. Smith at least had a chance of breaking away and getting open a few times.

Though it does remind me:

FoF: Greg Olsen will finish as a Top 5 TE.

Fiction. He will get a bunch of yards but he's not going to score a lot of TDs because Carolina will smartly run in the red zone.

FoF: Andre Ellington will end the year as the highest ranked NFC West RB.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Spoeank posted:

Fiction. He will get a bunch of yards but he's not going to score a lot of TDs because Carolina will smartly run in the red zone.

FoF: Andre Ellington will end the year as the highest ranked NFC West RB.

LOL Fiction. Ellington is a good RB but he's going to finish behind Lynch, and probably also Gore and Stacy. He'll be splitting touches with Mendenhall.

FoF: DeSean Jackson will outscore Vincent Jackson in fantasy points, with and without PPR

Benne
Sep 2, 2011

STOP DOING HEROIN

Leperflesh posted:

LOL Fiction. Ellington is a good RB but he's going to finish behind Lynch, and probably also Gore and Stacy. He'll be splitting touches with Mendenhall.

FoF: DeSean Jackson will outscore Vincent Jackson in fantasy points, with and without PPR

Mendenhall retired :ssh:

As for DJax, I'm going with fact.

FoF: Terrance West ends up with more fantasy points than Ben Tate

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Benne posted:

Mendenhall retired :ssh:

Well why is ESPN still giving him a rank goddamn it ESPN gently caress you! OK well I stand by my fiction but it's not so much of a LOL fiction now.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!
^^^^^^^
Don't worry you're not that far off. Arizona could still pull that poo poo, only with Stepfan Taylor or Jonathan Dwyer in Mendenhall's big back role.

Benne posted:

Mendenhall retired :ssh:

As for DJax, I'm going with fact.

FoF: Terrance West ends up with more fantasy points than Ben Tate
Fact. When has Tate ever avoided nagging injuries? West seems like a natural fit for their scheme.

FoF: Toby Gerhart makes being a white RB cool again and has a Top Ten season.

Harold Cooplowski
Sep 11, 2013

Tiptoes posted:

^^^^^^^
Don't worry you're not that far off. Arizona could still pull that poo poo, only with Stepfan Taylor or Jonathan Dwyer in Mendenhall's big back role.

Fact. When has Tate ever avoided nagging injuries? West seems like a natural fit for their scheme.

FoF: Toby Gerhart makes being a white RB cool again and has a Top Ten season.

Fact. The amount of hype I am for Gerhart at his ADP is unreal.

FoF: Golden Tate finally solves Detroit's problem at real life WR2 and turns in a high-end fantasy WR2 season.

ZIGfried
Nov 4, 2005

I can hardly contain myself!

Harold Cooplowski posted:

Fact. The amount of hype I am for Gerhart at his ADP is unreal.

FoF: Golden Tate finally solves Detroit's problem at real life WR2 and turns in a high-end fantasy WR2 season.

False. While Tate is more productive than the average WR2 in Detroit, he disappears in the red zone and struggles for weekly consistency.

FoF: Belichick's scorn for Ridley continues as James White forces his way into early down work and eventually goal line work during the season. On weeks where White garners the majority of touches, he produces as a top 10RB.

Marshmallow Blue
Apr 25, 2010

ZIGfried posted:

False. While Tate is more productive than the average WR2 in Detroit, he disappears in the red zone and struggles for weekly consistency.

FoF: Belichick's scorn for Ridley continues as James White forces his way into early down work and eventually goal line work during the season. On weeks where White garners the majority of touches, he produces as a top 10RB.

False:
Ridley is and remains the power back in New England despite continued (but improved handling issues) while White joins Vereen on passing downs and MAYBE even split back formations.(NE doesn't typically line up that way but if the shoe fits)

FOF: Johhny Football doesn't start and game of Regular Season Football until Thanksgiving or later; Injury not included

jabro
Mar 25, 2003

July Mock Draft 2014

1st PLACE
RUNNER-UP
got the knowshon


Marshmallow Blue posted:


False:
Ridley is and remains the power back in New England despite continued (but improved handling issues) while White joins Vereen on passing downs and MAYBE even split back formations.(NE doesn't typically line up that way but if the shoe fits)

FOF: Johhny Football doesn't start and game of Regular Season Football until Thanksgiving or later; Injury not included

True: He is completing less than 50% of his passes in 7-on-7 drills. That is ridiculously bad.


FoF: With this being Andrew Luck's and T.Y Hilton's third NFL season where the game usually "slows down", they both catapult into top 5 players for their respective positions.

Teemu Pokemon
Jun 19, 2004

To sign them is my real test

With full no movement clause
Fiction. Luck will be close, he might even get there, but I think he'll end up a respectable 6-8. Hilton will be good, but I'd be surprised if he's in the top-10 come the end of the season. I think his absolute ceiling is somewhere around 7-9 and a spot in the top-15 isn't unlikely.


FoF: Two of the top-12 players by current ADP (McCoy, Charles, Peterson, Forte, Johnson, Lacy, Graham, Thomas, Manning, Lynch, Ball, Bryant) miss at least 4 weeks due to injury.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Obama Yo Mama posted:

FoF: Two of the top-12 players by current ADP (McCoy, Charles, Peterson, Forte, Johnson, Lacy, Graham, Thomas, Manning, Lynch, Ball, Bryant) miss at least 4 weeks due to injury.

Fact. It's almost a given - all of these guys receive a ton of coverage and attention by defenses, and that means big hits and higher injury risk.

FoF: This will be RGIII's last season as a starting QB.

Marshmallow Blue
Apr 25, 2010

Leperflesh posted:

Fact. It's almost a given - all of these guys receive a ton of coverage and attention by defenses, and that means big hits and higher injury risk.

FoF: This will be RGIII's last season as a starting QB.

Fiction - The switch to a less predictable (not read option) more passing attack offense means RG3 will be here another season.

FoF Nick Foles Falls from grace and is not a Top 12 QB

Frustrated
Jun 12, 2003

Marshmallow Blue posted:

FoF Nick Foles Falls from grace and is not a Top 12 QB

Fiction: He misses Jackson, but just barely scrapes into the top 12.

FoF The Texans are a top 5 defense this season.

Marshmallow Blue
Apr 25, 2010

Frustrated posted:

Fiction: He misses Jackson, but just barely scrapes into the top 12.

FoF The Texans are a top 5 defense this season.

Fact :IF they have a top 16 Offesne

FoF: Calvin Johnson is not the #1 Fantasy receiver at the end of the regular fantasy season (week 14)

timp
Sep 19, 2007

Everything is in my control
Lipstick Apathy

Marshmallow Blue posted:

Fact :IF they have a top 16 Offesne

FoF: Calvin Johnson is not the #1 Fantasy receiver at the end of the regular fantasy season (week 14)

Fiction. I think he's still pretty undeniable and I don't see anybody else dethroning him. Next season he hits 30 and then we'll see, but Megatron stays no. 1 this season.

FoF: Carolina WR Kelvin Benjamin finishes the Fantasy regular season as a solid WR2 or better (ranked at least WR24 in points)

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

timp posted:

Fiction. I think he's still pretty undeniable and I don't see anybody else dethroning him. Next season he hits 30 and then we'll see, but Megatron stays no. 1 this season.

FoF: Carolina WR Kelvin Benjamin finishes the Fantasy regular season as a solid WR2 or better (ranked at least WR24 in points)

Fact. Talent + Opportunity = Success.

FoF: Nick Foles becomes a top 5 QB thanks to his strength of schedule.

Marshmallow Blue
Apr 25, 2010
Is it time to see just how close to 60% accurate we were?

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Reading through the page: lol, not very!

Benne
Sep 2, 2011

STOP DOING HEROIN
At least I was (barely) right about West/Tate :v:

Marshmallow Blue
Apr 25, 2010
I think i was right about johnyy football which was nice

jabro
Mar 25, 2003

July Mock Draft 2014

1st PLACE
RUNNER-UP
got the knowshon


Marshmallow Blue posted:

I think i was right about johnyy football which was nice

You asked the question. I answered it right.

Marshmallow Blue
Apr 25, 2010

jabro posted:

You asked the question. I answered it right.

Ill split it with you then.

Teemu Pokemon
Jun 19, 2004

To sign them is my real test

With full no movement clause
I definitely undersold Luck, but I was right on the money for Hilton :smug:


Montee Ball :stonk:

The Broncos RB starter as a whole for the season was right around RB12 though :colbert:

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Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004
"Lance Dunbar is a top 25 RB this year in PPR."

I called Fiction and got it right (100%), as I didn't foresee Murray as injury-prone, since his injuries historically have been varied. Neither backup cracked top 70.

My bold prediction: Ryan Tannehill will still be (or amongst the Top 5) the most-sacked quarterback in the league.

(100%)

:smug:

Reasoning: After being the most sacked QB in 2013, the o-line went through the Jonathan Martin fiasco, lost key players, and then lost Mike Pouncey for a good chunk of the season with a hip injury. I was higher on Wallace than the previous year and targeted him, but Tannehill's utter inability to connect with Wallace on the deep ball is going to be a severe cap to both their fantasy ceilings as long as that thing persists.

And to bring myself back to earth, I drafted Montee Ball 1.1 in a keeper league.

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