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Spiritus Nox
Sep 2, 2011

I'm gonna do a big effortpost at some point, but for now just know that Baylor Football is absolutely bitchin' and I really like our team this year and gently caress the haters 'cause we're going to beat OU in Norman.

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Spiritus Nox
Sep 2, 2011

Dr. Pangloss posted:

Baylor Words.

I like that I'm no longer the only guy here who makes effort posts about Baylor football, even if I do get beaten to the punch. I'll just talk a bit about our players this year, shall I?

Like I said earlier, I really, really like our team this year. Bryce Petty was pretty drat good even at his floor last year - and considering that floor was playing without his probable all-american left tackle, two starting RBs and burner IR (and there's been some persistant rumors he may have been playing through an ankle injury sustained during the OU game - which would certainly make The Stumble early in the Ok State game make more sense), I'm really, really excited to see what he can do with another year under his belt, especially if the offense stays healthier than it did last year. In particular, I'm curious to see what he can do with his legs - they were a big part of his game in high school and Briles talked his speed up quite a bit before the season started, but we never really saw much of him running outside of the OU game or goal-line situations. Makes sense if he indeed got hurt that night, I suppose. Honestly, it wouldn't shock me a bit if our Offense is even more productive this year than it is last year if we can stay healthy.

We're super loaded at receiver - we're headlined, of course, by Antwan Goodley after a massive breakout season last year that saw him easily top 1000 yards. His hands are a bit questionable at times, and he's struggled with press coverage, but anyone who can combine an RB's build with a WR's speed is going to do some damage in a Briles offense. Behind him are a lot of proven players and promising talent. Clay Fuller has great hands and might be the fastest player on the team, Levi Norwood combines great speed with surprising shiftiness (most readily at display when he's returning punts, two of which went for TDs last year), and Corey Coleman, who came on late last season and had a huge spring, is being spoken of as a more physical Tevin Reese - many are expecting him to step into the departed Reese's role as our second home-run threat that keeps people from just double-teaming Goodley all day. Behind them we have a full stable of promising athletes in Jay Lee, Quan Davis, and a quartet of really talented true freshmen who probably won't see much playing time but bode well for the future. The one most likely to make an impression this year is KD Cannon, a former 5* recruit who was the jewel of our 2013 recruiting class, and who's drawn many comparisons to current Titans WR and former BU superstar Kendall Wright. If Petty can improve his completion percentage into the high 60s or low 70s, this group has the talent to just shred people.

I don't have much to say along the O-Line other than that I like our starters but injuries here could be the most costly - especially if they're to either of our anchors in Spencer Drango or Troy Baker. Also, keep an eye on Tre'Von Armstead at TE. Briles' offense doesn't typically throw to the TE a lot, preferring to use them much more heavily as extra blockers, but rumor has it that Armstead has the speed and hands to play a role similar to what Jace Amaro did at Texas Tech. It's entirely possible this is all bullshit and he catches like two passes in his whole career, but keep an eye on that because I find that idea fun.

We're also pretty well stocked at RB, bringing back Shock Linwood from an electrifying RS freshman season where he performed heroically in the absence of the injured Lache Seastrunk and Glasco Martin, most prominently against OU and Texas Tech, totalling well over 100 yards against each. He doesn't quite match Seastrunk's speed or explosiveness, but he's got great balance, a few nice moves, and is an all-around consistent producer even this early into his career - I'm really excited to see how he grows. Behind him are Devin Chafin, who steps into the role of the Big Back left by departed stalwart Glasco Martin and whose main claim to fame is a good day against Tech, wherein he showcased some surprising jets on a 40ish yard TD run, and RS Fr Johnny Jefferson, who's also slated to be returning kickoffs. Keep an eye on Jefferson - he's still young and Briles is loath to put an RB on the field until they can do some blocking as well, but reports from Spring suggest that Jefferson might be the most talented back on campus.

So, that's the offense. The biggest thing here will be be staying healthy, and it's not even close - especially along O-line. The losses of Spencer Drango and Tevin Reese in particular were absolutely devestating last year, allowing teams to double team Goodley all day and making the holes much smaller and harder for Bryce while at the same time putting him under considerably more pressure in the pocket. And even then, we were a pretty drat good offense. That aside, if Petty can improve in his second year starting, Coleman or somebody else can provide a secondary threat to take the top off of defenses, and our running game can stay dynamic, I don't see any reason we can't field an offense that's as good or better than what we did last year - and I don't think any of those things is particularly unlikely on their own.

I'll make another effortpost talking a bit more about our defensive personnel, but here's the nutshell: D-line has the talent and the meat to be one of the best Baylor's ever had and potentially the best in the conference; LBs return a stud at OLB, a moderate question mark at WLB, and a big-rear end question mark at NB; safties and CBs have promising athleticism and good springs, but are largely unproven; I see lots of reason to think the D holds steadier than people are expecting or even improves, though improvement on the D is far less likely to me than on the O.

Spiritus Nox
Sep 2, 2011

Dr. Pangloss posted:

I've been waiting for the TE to become a pass catcher in this offense and have basically resigned myself to waiting. If it happens, amazing. The fact that they see so few passes is puzzling to me, since when it happens, it's successful. I've chalked it down to Briles outsmarting himself, but he's Briles, so I defer to the master.

Looking forward to your defense focused post, it's the big question mark on the season, even if I'm more confident than the average bear...

I think TE passes are something Briles likes to sneak up on you with - since our WR corps is so good that we don't typically need the extra hands and, as mentioned, Briles likes to use TEs to block for power running, everybody always forgets about them until we sneak Najver or someone through and get a TD or a big gain when they're not looking. We did it a lot early at TCU when we were being weird to get around their defense and we almost got our first touchdown against UT on a pass to Najver Bryce let fly a hair too high. Using Armstead more frequently means that the opposition is naturally less likely to forget about him, in addition to the loss in terms of blocking. Of course, if the comparisons to Amaro are based on anything, that might not matter. We'll see soon enough, I'm sure.

And like I said, I like our D in theory. The line has the personnel to maul people, Hager's a stabilizing presence and a tackling machine at OLB, Aivion Edwards played well against Tech and has drawn praise in practice, and our corners have the athleticism and size you want, and Bennett's been high on them - particularly Howard and Singleton. I'm also high on Stewart and Burt with another year at the safety positions. And yeah, I know, coachspeak, but in my few years here I've gotten the impression that the coaches don't really bullshit you about players they're high on - they just get quiet about guys they aren't. Look at the difference in how Briles talked up Florence vs Petty, for instance, or how Bennett talked about 2012's D as opposed to 2013's. Bennett was naming names for 2013's team, and sure enough they generally played well - I don't recall him doing the same for 2012. The biggest question is a (former?) walk-on Brence at NB - and I'm cautiously optimistic because Brence had to pass up scholarship players to get there as opposed to being pressed there by lack of personnel, and because Sam Holl wasn't a supremely remarkable physical specemen for Brence to have to replace. I'm hopeful Brence can do the job just with good coaching and a good understanding of his role.

Spiritus Nox fucked around with this message at 21:24 on Aug 5, 2014

Spiritus Nox
Sep 2, 2011

I just want UNT to beat Texas. Because the two teams are probably about as close to each other as they're going to get and so many of the people who have been praising literally everything Strong does as THE MOVE THAT WILL SAVE TEXAS FOOTBALL FOREVER will be so loving mad. I don't even care what it makes people say about the conference, those would be some delicious tears.

Spiritus Nox
Sep 2, 2011

buddhanc posted:

The teams aren't even close in talent or coaching. No matter how good UNT was last year, their talent level is dwarfed five times over by Texas and will most likely be dominated thoroughly.

Bet you were saying that about Kansas two years ago.

I'm just saying, sometimes should and will don't quite align the way they should...

Spiritus Nox
Sep 2, 2011

buddhanc posted:

You mean the one close game with Kansas in the past 10 years or so? With Case McCoy at the helm?

...Yes? I'd take this UNT team over that Kansas team all day, and if anything happens to your previously-concussed QB you might have to put Tyrone Swoopes at the helm.

At any rate, you're being way too straight-faced over a possibility I'm throwing out there more for schadenfruede than for betting purposes.

Spiritus Nox
Sep 2, 2011

PostNouveau posted:

Nah, Jerrod Heard will take poo poo over after David Ash (RIP) goes down and usher in a 4-year golden era.

I mean, if you want to trust a true freshman QB to be that much of a game-changer in a year where he doesn't have much of a receiving corps to work with, feel free to make that bet...

Spiritus Nox
Sep 2, 2011

kayakyakr posted:

update:

UCA - No prediction
UTEP - No prediction
Arkansas - No prediction
Oklahoma State - No prediction
Kansas State - No prediction
West Virginia - Loss
Kansas - Win
TCU - Loss
Texas - Loss
OU - Toss-Up
ISU - Loss
Baylor - Loss

1-5 with 1 toss-up and 5 teams yet to weigh in.

Looking for something to pin to the bulletin board?

Spiritus Nox
Sep 2, 2011

kayakyakr posted:

I do hope that we get at least 3 of those last 5 in. This is a fun experiment in team confidence.

Seems perfectly doable. ISU and especially TCU aren't exactly pushovers at home, but I need to see a great deal of improvement from them or regression from you all before I pick losses there. Texas is the next most likely win, and I'll take Tech in that game in a heartbeat if anything happens to Ash again. And upsetting OU or BU wouldn't be hugely shocking either, especially if either team has trouble staying healthy.

Spiritus Nox
Sep 2, 2011

kayakyakr posted:

Oh, I was talking about 3 of the last 5 predictions. I mean, I know what I think my team's gonna do, but I'm interested in what other people think they're going to do to my team.

Oh. I'm smart. :downs:

Grittybeard posted:

From the outside looking in it seems like Tech is in a position where everyone will think about picking against them other than KU. You're writing up your predictions and if you're a homer they're an automatic win because, well if you're good you beat what you think Tech will be this year. If you're pessimistic but not super pessimistic they're sitting there as an option when you might be looking to find a non-obvious win somewhere.

I agree that it's kind of interesting but I see where it's coming from, and obviously it probably won't reflect reality.

To be expected, I'd think. I mean, most projections I've seen have them middle of the pack in the big 12 in kind of the "exciting but potentially fatally flawed team" sort of role. Only natural that the presumed good teams expect to beat you and the optimistic bad teams' fans hope to upset you when you're in that space.

Spiritus Nox
Sep 2, 2011

Numlock posted:

Its more that I think nobody knows what to make out of Tech. Depending on who we are talking about, I've seen predictions of as few as 4 to as many as "wins the big XII"

I'm calling 6-7 wins until I see more. Defense still has quite a bit to prove - you all brought in a good number of JUCOs on D, right? Or am I thinking of O-Line? Also want to see for myself how they adjust to life without Amaro - seems to me like he brought a unique element to Tech's offense that helped stop them from being totally one-dimensional even when they weren't running the ball well, and I don't think that's the sort of thing that can necessarily be accounted for just by asking Webb and Marquez or whoever to elevate their game.

Wouldn't shock me to see them do significantly better and get into title contention, if the D can get saltier - seems like a reasonably favorable schedule with OU and Texas coming to Lubbock, though going to Amon Carter could be dangerous. I'd be surprised if they do worse than 5-7.

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Spiritus Nox
Sep 2, 2011

Spiritus Nox posted:

for now just know that Baylor Football is absolutely bitchin' and I really like our team this year and gently caress the haters 'cause we're going to beat OU in Norman.

:smug:

I didn't predict any losses (I called @OU a tossup), whiffed on a much improved WVU squad and nearly whiffed on a very much improved TCU, but otherwise things are looking nice.

Our offense has taken a bit of a step back as Petty hasn't really improved, Goodley's regressed and we miss Lache's ability to blow people away in the run game, but the defense has actually made a larger step forward to mostly make up for it. The defensive line has been among the nation's best and flattened everyone they faced week after week, Bryce Hager has been his usual beastly self at MLB, Aivion Edwards and Taylor young have both played well at OLB while Brence has basically been Sam Holl MK II at NB, our safeties look like they did last year plus a year's experience (and Orion Stewart is less likely to murder someone on the field than Ahmad Dixon was), Xavien Howard has been something of a revelation at CB and Ryan Reid hasn't been bad either. Been lots of fun to watch this unit. Best part is that the vast majority of this unit is coming back next year.

Spiritus Nox fucked around with this message at 02:26 on Nov 17, 2014

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