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Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

Blood Clots
Sweat Dries
Bones Heal
Suck it Up and Keep Wrestling
So I definitely have that September disease of being all excited about new sports seasons and placing too many bets, oh well:

final picks:

TNF
Steelers @ Ravens Over 44

NCAAF
East Carolina +10 @ VT (tailing a friend who thinks this is let-down spot for VT after a big win)

NFL Sunday/Monday
Dolphins PK @ Bills (Pron Pick)
Patriots -3 @ Vikings (Pron Pick)
Eagles @ Colts Over 53 (Pron Pick)
Bears +7 @ 49ers

NFL Teasers
Seahawks +1 @ Chargers and Saints PK @ Browns
Broncos -6.5 vs. Chiefs and Bears +13.5 @ 49ers

Just realized out of all the bets above, only on 1 home team

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BWV
Feb 24, 2005


Over 53.5 Philly/Indy
Miami -1.5
Arizona -1.5
Tennessee -3.5
New England -3 (put 3U on this)

Really trying to stop myself from just betting the farm on the Pats -3 tho

Demented Guy
Apr 22, 2010

IF YOU ARE READING THIS IN AN NBA THREAD, LOOK TO YOUR RIGHT TO SEE MY EXPLETIVE RIDDEN, NONSENSICAL POST OF UTTER BULLSHIT
7-5 overall. +1.6 units

Red Sox +1
Serbia +2 (FIBA)

HooverDam
Aug 16, 2004

I've never gambled before, but just saw ASU is only 15.5 point favorites over Colorado this week. That seems like free money if you bet ASU to cover. The Devils haven't looked great yet against 2 inferior opponents but blew them out...I'm strongly considering laying some money on this one.

HooverDam fucked around with this message at 17:03 on Sep 10, 2014

Its Miller Time
Dec 4, 2004

As a UCLA fan, I can tell you the 20pt spreads they're putting up for us on lovely teams seem to be good value (in taking the other team). Also

supercrooky posted:

Vegas wasn't built on giving away free money. There is plenty of money on the other side of that bet, and it doesn't look like its coming from recreational bettor types. Enough to move the line in the opposite direction.

Home underdogs are historically undervalued. It's going to be 90 and humid on Sunday.

Miami was a decent team last year despite a horrific O-line, this year the line will be significantly better. If Ryan Tannehill doesn't spend half the season on his back, he has the potential to be a solid QB (like he showed last year, beating the Patriots in Miami in week 15).

This guy knew what he was talking about.

Decided to start tracking my single bets for fun this year.

What analysis do you guys use to help you bet? I really liked the FO odds, where they analyzed the game and came up with their spreads. I rode their call that the Carolina line was wrong big last week. The Supercontest bets also seem to be helpful. Also the FBG article each week:

quote:

BEST BETS

Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.

* ONE STAR GAMES *

(Thursday) BALTIMORE (-2.5) vs. PITTSBURGH
MIAMI (+1) at BUFFALO
DETROIT (+3) at CAROLINA
DETROIT (“FOR THE WIN” +130) at CAROLINA
NEW ORLEANS (-6) at CLEVELAND
ARIZONA (-1.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS
TENNESSEE (-3.5) vs. DALLAS
JACKSONVILLE (+6) at WASHINGTON
JACKSONVILLE (“FOR THE WIN” +225) at WASHINGTON
HOUSTON (-2.5) at OAKLAND
(Monday) PHILADELPHIA (“FOR THE WIN” +150) at INDIANAPOLIS

6-POINT TEASER: SAN FRANCISCO (-1) vs. CHICAGO (OVER 42.5)

6-POINT TEASER: (Monday) PHILADELPHIA (+9.5) at INDIANAPOLIS (OVER 47)

3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (9-5 ODDS):
NEW ORLEANS (EVEN) at CLEVELAND
CINCINNATI (+1) vs. ATLANTA
SEATTLE (+0.5) at SAN DIEGO

4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (3-1 ODDS):
NEW ORLEANS (EVEN) at CLEVELAND
CINCINNATI (+1) vs. ATLANTA
SEATTLE (+0.5) at SAN DIEGO
SAN FRANCISCO (-1) vs. CHICAGO

5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS):
NEW ORLEANS (EVEN) at CLEVELAND
CINCINNATI (+1) vs. ATLANTA
SEATTLE (+0.5) at SAN DIEGO
SAN FRANCISCO (-1) vs. CHICAGO
GREEN BAY (-2) vs. NEW YORK JETS

6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (7-1 ODDS):
NEW ORLEANS (EVEN) at CLEVELAND
CINCINNATI (+1) vs. ATLANTA
SEATTLE (+0.5) at SAN DIEGO
SAN FRANCISCO (-1) vs. CHICAGO
GREEN BAY (-2) vs. NEW YORK JETS
HOUSTON (+3.5) at OAKLAND

** TWO STAR GAMES **

None this week.

*** THREE STAR GAMES ***

None this week.

PICKS OF THE WEEK: Baltimore, Miami, Detroit, New Orleans, Arizona, Houston, Tennessee, Jacksonville

Its Miller Time fucked around with this message at 20:28 on Sep 10, 2014

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

Blood Clots
Sweat Dries
Bones Heal
Suck it Up and Keep Wrestling

Its Miller Time posted:

What analysis do you guys use to help you bet?

I have a few rules of thumb to eliminate some bets right off the bat:

1. No big NFL favorites (-10 or more)
2. Stay away from NFL unders unless there is a compelling edge. I think books are being slow to adjust to Goodell's rule changes and the resulting increase in offense.

And then I just eyeball bets and sit there and think for like 30 seconds. I am trying to teach myself R and apply statistical methods more but its tough to do that with football compared with, say, baseball

thompson
Jun 6, 2006

Pron on VHS posted:

I have a few rules of thumb to eliminate some bets right off the bat:

1. No big NFL favorites (-10 or more)
2. Stay away from NFL unders unless there is a compelling edge. I think books are being slow to adjust to Goodell's rule changes and the resulting increase in offense.

And then I just eyeball bets and sit there and think for like 30 seconds. I am trying to teach myself R and apply statistical methods more but its tough to do that with football compared with, say, baseball

I'm pretty similar, although I do put A LOT of stock into what the public is doing, especially on football. If there is a game where the public is 70% of the bets and the line has moved a point or so, I put stock into that and normally bet with Vegas on the other side because they are not in the business of losing money. Other than that, I take what I know of the team and apply it. It's entertainment cash to me. I've been pretty drat good lately and my roll is roughly at 500%. It's working now, but it may not work tomorrow.

Here is a good example of me doing the above. It was like 31 points under what the spread was.

thompson posted:

Added the under in the WSU game and that will be it for tonight. Was going to wait for +4 due to volumes, but 70% of public money on the over means I'm just going to bet with Vegas here. Games like these get broken imo because they're poo poo teams on national tv on a Friday in Vegas. Abnormal volume = donks. No way the line moves from 64 to 67.5 any other way imo. Going with Vegas.

thompson fucked around with this message at 20:48 on Sep 10, 2014

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

I typically use some variation of Football Outsiders' picks even knowing that their early season metrics are somewhat useless. Here's their Week 2

Its Miller Time
Dec 4, 2004

What do you guys use to watch lines move besides your eyes?

thompson
Jun 6, 2006

Its Miller Time posted:

What do you guys use to watch lines move besides your eyes?

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/matchups/

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

Blood Clots
Sweat Dries
Bones Heal
Suck it Up and Keep Wrestling
FO's record is pretty good considering they force themselves to pick against the spread for all 16 games every week

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

Pron on VHS posted:

FO's record is pretty good considering they force themselves to pick against the spread for all 16 games every week
They used to have a breakdown of their record in games they considered "green" and it was really helpful so hopefully it's something they do in the future. An example though, their Top 3 confidence picks each week generally outperform their overall.

2013 Overall - .479
Top 3 Confidence - .540

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

Blood Clots
Sweat Dries
Bones Heal
Suck it Up and Keep Wrestling
Can you link the FO section that has this stuff? I'd love to start looking at it. It's so cool how big the margin is between their projected spread and the actual one. Both sportsbooks and FO have tons of brilliant people working full-time on this, I'd give anything to see how their process differs and what causes FO to project a spread for DAL/TEN that is FOUR points different from the actual one.


edit: I guess its probably because a sportsbook creates a line that will entice 50% of bets on each side so they can max their expected revenue, whereas FO is just trying to predict the most accurate line

Pron on VHS fucked around with this message at 21:34 on Sep 10, 2014

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

Pron on VHS posted:

Can you link the FO section that has this stuff? I'd love to start looking at it. It's so cool how big the margin is between their projected spread and the actual one. Both sportsbooks and FO have tons of brilliant people working full-time on this, I'd give anything to see how their process differs and what causes FO to project a spread for DAL/TEN that is FOUR points different from the actual one.
Link below. It says Premium only members but I've never bought a membership. Maybe it's tied to my yearly FO Almanac purchases.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/premium/spreads.php

quote:

Picks against the spread are based on an equation that measures current DVOA (using certain specific splits, not just each team's total) as well as weather, injuries, and (from Week 1 to Week 8) the Football Outsiders preseason projections. Please note that picks here during the postseason will be different from playoff odds listed on in the FO Playoff Odds Report because they are based on a more complicated formula, while the playoff odds report only considers overall DVOA.

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

Blood Clots
Sweat Dries
Bones Heal
Suck it Up and Keep Wrestling
Yeah it's asking for a login. drat.

supercrooky
Sep 12, 2006

Its Miller Time posted:

What analysis do you guys use to help you bet? I really liked the FO odds, where they analyzed the game and came up with their spreads. I rode their call that the Carolina line was wrong big last week. The Supercontest bets also seem to be helpful. Also the FBG article each week:

I'm with thompson on the contrarianism, to the extreme. If everyone likes one team, I'm on the other. It usually means big money on the other side, especially if the line moves in the "wrong" direction.

This frequently means holding your nose and betting on a team you know is not very good, so its definitely not for everyone. I haven't posted picks in a few years, but if you dig the old threads out of the archives you'll find me doing well while disagreeing with most of the thread.

https://twitter.com/squeekycleen is a good follow for this sort of thing, I learned sports betting from him on another, now closed, forum.

Demented Guy
Apr 22, 2010

IF YOU ARE READING THIS IN AN NBA THREAD, LOOK TO YOUR RIGHT TO SEE MY EXPLETIVE RIDDEN, NONSENSICAL POST OF UTTER BULLSHIT
8-6 and +1.55 units overall.

St. Louis Cardinals pk
Ravens -2.5

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

0-3, -4U :toot:

PIT +3

This is going to be an ugly game; I just like the Steelers offense more.

thompson
Jun 6, 2006
So I have 7U in bets going tonight.

Pitt/Bal Under 23 1st Half -115 3U
Pitt/Bal Under 44.5 -110 4U

Also, for Saturday I put 4U on Georgia -5.5 and I think it has already moved to 6. Pretty happy with that, South Carolina struggled with ECU, so it made sense.

Here is another site I use for consensus data. http://www.wunderdog.com/public-consensus.html

I couldn't decide on this game so I just went with Vegas on O/U. If you're looking for a contrarian pick, go with Baltimore.

thompson fucked around with this message at 16:32 on Sep 11, 2014

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

Took LOU Tech tonight +3.5 @ North Texas.



9-7 in football YTD.

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

Blood Clots
Sweat Dries
Bones Heal
Suck it Up and Keep Wrestling
Does anyone know where I could get past data on NFL over/unders? Like, the opening or closing O/U line on every NFL game played over the past 10 seasons? Doesn't matter what sportsbook's line, any will do

Chris de Sperg
Aug 14, 2009


Pron on VHS posted:

Does anyone know where I could get past data on NFL over/unders? Like, the opening or closing O/U line on every NFL game played over the past 10 seasons?
Pro-Football-Reference has the closing Vegas O/U line for every game going a ways back, to get a mass output just screw around with the Team Game Finder: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tgl_finder.cgi

thompson
Jun 6, 2006

Chris de Sperg posted:

Pro-Football-Reference has the closing Vegas O/U line for every game going a ways back, to get a mass output just screw around with the Team Game Finder: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tgl_finder.cgi

Wow, that thing is intense. Pro click.

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

Blood Clots
Sweat Dries
Bones Heal
Suck it Up and Keep Wrestling

Chris de Sperg posted:

Pro-Football-Reference has the closing Vegas O/U line for every game going a ways back, to get a mass output just screw around with the Team Game Finder: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tgl_finder.cgi

YES

Hawzy
Dec 13, 2002

I'm doing a supercontest with some friends to prepare for the real thing possibly next year. Went 3-2 week 1, should have been 4-1 but I didn't get my SEA bet in on time.

These are my picks this week:

PIT +2.5 -- I think Smith Sr. was a fluke and Flacco looked particularly bad week 1.
NE -3 -- This is a classic buy low/sell high game. If this was week one this spread would be at least NE -6.
GB -8.5 -- GB put up a decent fight against SEA, this should be a blowout at home.
NO -6.5 -- CLE offense can't compete - if Gordon somehow gets reinstated before Sunday I'll probably regret this one
ATL +5.5 -- Last week they looked like the 2012 Falcons that won a playoff game, meanwhile I don't think the Bengals had any right winning they played like garbage and pulled out a last second win against a pretty bad looking BAL. The falcons are kings of last second bullshit wins so I'll take the points.

---
I also liked, but they didn't make the cut this week.
MIA -1
ARI -2.5

Stupid Post Maker
Jan 8, 2008
I'm thinking either a pit/byu teaser or parlay. Haven't decided yet

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

Blood Clots
Sweat Dries
Bones Heal
Suck it Up and Keep Wrestling
got the over in NFL tonight, adding Houston +18

aehiilrs
Apr 1, 2007
Are CFL picks ok in here? Because these are probably good things to do the opposite of…

MTL +10(-115) over 48, 2u - east sucks but MTL seems to be getting themselves back together a bit
WPG +7(-115) under 49, 2u - I don't get this at all. Lulay is hurt, WPG hung in there vs sk last 2 weeks
SSK +1, 5u - fan bet. :sigh: Darian

Not seeing tor/cal but more than likely Calgary is gonna blow them out. Taking them & over if it's -15 or better.

thompson
Jun 6, 2006

aehiilrs posted:

Are CFL picks ok in here? Because these are probably good things to do the opposite of…

MTL +10(-115) over 48, 2u - east sucks but MTL seems to be getting themselves back together a bit
WPG +7(-115) under 49, 2u - I don't get this at all. Lulay is hurt, WPG hung in there vs sk last 2 weeks
SSK +1, 5u - fan bet. :sigh: Darian

Not seeing tor/cal but more than likely Calgary is gonna blow them out. Taking them & over if it's -15 or better.

Of course they are! You may even see me tail one of these because I like getting action and don't watch the CFL at all.

Merk Mang
Jan 24, 2004

Why don't you just get up and dance?
Picks for the week

PIT/BAL under 44.5 -- It's a short week and these games are usually close and low scoring. Over the last 20 games the score has only gone over 44.5 points twice
ATL +5 -- CIN didn't look good enough last week to be a 5 point favorite at home
ARI -2 -- Not feeling too good about this. ARI should win and cover but I can see the Giants winning if the good Eli shows up.
NE -3 -- Rams made the Vikings look good last week. The Patriots aren't the Rams. I don't think it will be a blowout but the Pats should cover.
PHI/IND over 53.5 -- Two good offenses against two bad defenses, should be an easy over.

Viper_3000
Apr 26, 2005

I could give a shit about all that.
I have a major hard on for the under in the USC/GA game this weekend. Georgia hasn't scored more than 20 points at Carolina since 1994. I also like USC +6.5, but to a much lesser extent.

TASTE THE PAIN!!
May 18, 2004

Merk Mang posted:

Picks for the week

PIT/BAL under 44.5 -- It's a short week and these games are usually close and low scoring. Over the last 20 games the score has only gone over 44.5 points twice

I was just looking over the head to heads and think this pick looks really good statistically. Gonna take it, but drat am I shook after week 1.

aehiilrs
Apr 1, 2007

thompson posted:

Of course they are! You may even see me tail one of these because I like getting action and don't watch the CFL at all.

Rule 1 for CFL betting: pick a game and take the prop that the first scoring play will be a single.

Viper_3000
Apr 26, 2005

I could give a shit about all that.
Held my nose as I put a unit on the under in the PIT/BAL game. Let's hope this one plays out like it should.

BWV
Feb 24, 2005


Viper_3000 posted:

Held my nose as I put a unit on the under in the PIT/BAL game. Let's hope this one plays out like it should.

Did the same right before it started. Hate picking unders but it just seemed right.

Demented Guy
Apr 22, 2010

IF YOU ARE READING THIS IN AN NBA THREAD, LOOK TO YOUR RIGHT TO SEE MY EXPLETIVE RIDDEN, NONSENSICAL POST OF UTTER BULLSHIT
Thank you Ravens. I should really stop betting baseball starting tomorrow.

Demented Guy fucked around with this message at 04:31 on Sep 12, 2014

Viper_3000
Apr 26, 2005

I could give a shit about all that.
God I love football season.

Needed some skin on a game tomorrow so:
Cincy -10 1U

Saturday:

Mizzou -10 1U
Oklahoma -21 3U (Stoops is out to prove a point against the SEC)
UMass +16 1U (Dores are REAL BAD)
USC -6.5 1U
USC/UGA Under 59.5 3U (Still loving this play)

I want to take Kentucky +18.5 but I'm hesitant based on their past history.

BWV
Feb 24, 2005


Got excited after winning the under and made two 2 team parlays:

Seattle -2 and New Orleans -1.5: 2U pays out 2:1
Seattle -2 and Green Bay -2: 2U pays out 2.3:1

Demented Guy
Apr 22, 2010

IF YOU ARE READING THIS IN AN NBA THREAD, LOOK TO YOUR RIGHT TO SEE MY EXPLETIVE RIDDEN, NONSENSICAL POST OF UTTER BULLSHIT
9-7 overall. 3-2 in the NFL. +1.5 units

Chicago Sky +7 (WNBA)
Serbia -3 (FIBA)

I don't watch the WNBA so that play is only based on my research.

For the Serbia play, I'm riding them until the wheels fall off. France just gave everything they got to beat the host team. Serbia is severely underrated because they don't have well-known NBA players.

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thompson
Jun 6, 2006
Here are my weekend picks:

NFL:
PHI/IND Ov53 5U
Arizona PK 5U
Miami PK 4U
New England -3 2U

NCAA:
Georgia -5.5 4U
Tennessee +21 2U
Indiana -8 3U
Ucla -7 3U
Cincinnati -10 3U

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