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It Might be worth comparing 2015 futures lines with FO's Super Bowl odds. Quickly calculating the implied probabilities from my sportsbook leads me to think GB and CHI would be the best value for the 2015 Super Bowl. Its Miller Time fucked around with this message at 22:59 on Aug 27, 2014 |
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Aug 27, 2014 22:47
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| # ¿ Apr 29, 2024 13:57 |
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I like a few overs: Packers Seahawks 47.5 Raiders Jets 40 Panthers Bucs 39.5 Titans Chiefs 43.5 I think the Raiders, Jets, Panthers, Bucs, Titans and Chiefs are all teams whose offensive talent is underestimated by Vegas. Plus the illegal contact rule change.
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Sep 4, 2014 01:05
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Someone tell me why Patriots -4.5 @ Dolphins isn't free money?
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Sep 5, 2014 19:59
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As a UCLA fan, I can tell you the 20pt spreads they're putting up for us on lovely teams seem to be good value (in taking the other team). Alsosupercrooky posted:Vegas wasn't built on giving away free money. There is plenty of money on the other side of that bet, and it doesn't look like its coming from recreational bettor types. Enough to move the line in the opposite direction. This guy knew what he was talking about. Decided to start tracking my single bets for fun this year.  What analysis do you guys use to help you bet? I really liked the FO odds, where they analyzed the game and came up with their spreads. I rode their call that the Carolina line was wrong big last week. The Supercontest bets also seem to be helpful. Also the FBG article each week: quote:BEST BETS Its Miller Time fucked around with this message at 20:28 on Sep 10, 2014 |
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Sep 10, 2014 20:25
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What do you guys use to watch lines move besides your eyes?
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Sep 10, 2014 20:58
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Who was the goony rear end guy who was like "good sir why would you take the bears +7". Saw 90% of public on Niners and did pure contrarian play. 2 units on ML 2 on spread.
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Sep 15, 2014 04:49
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Re: Pron taking Bears +7SD87 posted:good sir, can you please explain the rationale behind this pick? Vegas is smarter than you. The line moving or the vast majority of the public getting on one side is often a good sign there's value in the contrarian pick. This has been a roller coaster start. Put aside your old notions about teams and look at how they've done recently. Its Miller Time fucked around with this message at 16:35 on Sep 15, 2014 |
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Sep 15, 2014 16:32
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We setup a thread for daily fantasy football stuff in the fantasy section if you wanna check it out, though it's slow going. Would prefer to keep this betting on real sports.
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Sep 21, 2014 10:53
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See a few lines I really like for teasers Bears +1.5 vs. GB Colts -7.5 vs. Titans Steelers -7.5 vs. Bucs Also, a parlay of: Eagles +190 ML Over 51 -110 Pays +450. Its Miller Time fucked around with this message at 18:33 on Sep 25, 2014 |
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Sep 25, 2014 18:26
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Ozu posted:Aaron Schatz is getting a bit testy over FO's spread picks. How do you miss commenting on the fact their #1 spread pick is that Washington is undervalued vs. Seattle by 5 points. Also at 10% juice you need to be right 52.6% of the time to break even. I like a lot of lines this week. Bears @ Car +2.5 Bengals @ Pat -1.5 Eagles vs. Rams -7 Chargers vs. Jets -7 Its Miller Time fucked around with this message at 22:48 on Oct 3, 2014 |
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Oct 3, 2014 22:34
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Ucla 2nd H
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Oct 5, 2014 05:29
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Eagles by 6 is going to kill me.
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Oct 5, 2014 21:16
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Put a lot of my bankroll on Broncos -8. As a Jets fan it gives me no great pleasure... Call me crazy but I also like OAK at home +7 and even a small amount on the ML. Lightning can't strike twice though, can it? Lost a bet $20 to win $125 parlay on Chargers, Seahawks and Eagles last week by 1.5 points in the Eagles score (won by 6, had -7). Its Miller Time fucked around with this message at 21:37 on Oct 9, 2014 |
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Oct 9, 2014 21:32
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Ozu posted:This is an emotional hedge so good work there. But if the Jets cover and still lose then that really sucks. If we lose by less than 8 to the Broncos I will consider it a moral victory.
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Oct 9, 2014 21:43
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Colts -2.5 feels like a steal.
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Oct 9, 2014 23:12
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Got my eyes on some overs this week Bengals Colts 50 Dolphins Bears 49 Panthers Packers 49 Saints Lions 48.5 Giants Cowboys 48.5 49ers Broncos 50
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Oct 16, 2014 00:59
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Tonight Jets Pats Under 45. Supposed to rain, both teams are anemic.
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Oct 16, 2014 18:42
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I got killed this weekend in NFL.
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Oct 23, 2014 01:47
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Steadily lost a few hundred over the season. Bet it all on the Colts a week or two ago. Risk management schmanagement. edit: Took some underdog money lines Texans @ Browns +150 Vikings @ Bears +140 Giants vs. 49ers +177 Its Miller Time fucked around with this message at 01:54 on Nov 13, 2014 |
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Nov 13, 2014 01:52
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zapplez posted:IND Colts by 13-18 @ +2000 In retrospect, kinda ambitious.
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Jan 19, 2015 07:16
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Looking towards next week: Steelers are -2 @ Rams Chargers +2.5 @ Vikings Jets -2.5 at home vs. Eagles Colts -3.5 @ Titans
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Sep 23, 2015 04:21
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| # ¿ Apr 29, 2024 13:57 |
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Post your favorite Super Bowl props! I quickly threw these together and realize many might be terrible, but it's all for fun. First panthers touchdown is Cam Newton +450 Last scoring play will be Panthers pass +350 Panthers score 1st and win game +125 First scoring play is Panthers pass TD +300 CJ Anderson is player to score first TD +1100 CJ Anderson is player to score last TD +1100 Broncos D/ST is player to score last TD +2000 Fozzy Whittaker scores a TD +1000 Broncos D/ST scores a TD +300 Panthers win by 11-13, 14-17 or 18-21 points +1000, +800 and +1200 There will be a missed XP +290 Someone will score in last 3.5 minutes -160 No team will score 3 times in a row without other team scoring +145 Panthers -6 -110 I thought "Panthers score 1st and win game" (+125) was good given the defensive nature of the Broncos. Along those lines, given how well the defense is playing I also liked "Broncos D/ST scores a TD" (+300). I'm probably wrong but I also thought there was value in "No team will score 3 times in a row without other team scoring" (+145 ).
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Jan 31, 2016 02:56
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