Survivor: San Juan del Sur

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Fast Luck: Feb 2, 1988

Pinterest Mom posted:

Idk, Baylor does bratty things, and it owns. Just last episode, she wrote the hilariously petty "JULIE AKA TRAIL MIX" for no reason in her answer in the reward challenge, apparently had a fun squabbly relationship with Alec, rolled her eyes a lot. At minimum, you have to trust that Reed isn't an idiot and was at least trying to push an angle that had a kernel of truth.

She doesn't have no strategy, either - her and Natalie seem to be a strong pair, and she strategises and does things with Natalie without her mom. She was going to blindside Missy's biggest ally in the game without telling her!

In his boot interview with Rob, Reed said he was just mad and shouldn't have had an outburst like that, but that Baylor was being a brat at the time in his opinion. On the other hand, Tyson talked about the sort of stuff Homestar Runner was saying... that by fighting Baylor like that, he was in a way going to bat for Jaclyn. Tyson talked about how one time he told Colton he was right in an argument with Kat, because Colton had more power in the game at the time. He also mentioned a time Tina was ripping into people, especially Monica, post-Redemption Island, and how he normally wouldn't have said anything, but he went back at Tina saying she had no right to talk to Monica like that in order to position himself better with Monica. I forget if the 'brat' comment had anything to do with Jaclyn, if it really helped Jaclyn come around to Reed, or if that was more simply being left behind on reward, or if the brat comment was related to that...

# ¿ Dec 8, 2014 19:05

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# ¿ May 21, 2024 02:34

Fast Luck: Feb 2, 1988

Yeah if I'm anyone left in the game, I want to go to final tribal council with anyone except Natalie now. The question is whether Missy/Baylor would be willing to vote her out if she doesn't have immunity at F4.

# ¿ Dec 11, 2014 04:17

Fast Luck: Feb 2, 1988

mancalamania posted:

It's tough to say for sure, but I think Natalie has this won. Assuming Jaclyn is out next, for Natalie to not make the Final 3 at this point she needs to somehow lose Final 4 immunity AND have Missy and Baylor both agree to betray her AND have Missy and Baylor not want to pursue the strategy of one of them voluntarily leaving to have a free jury vote AND have Keith not be willing to force a tie for her. And then it's hard to imagine Natalie losing at Final 3 unless the jury is super bitter and votes for Keith out of spite. And even then, that requires Keith squeaking into the Final 3 too somehow.

I'm not sure Jaclyn is out next but I agree with you that Natalie is in great shape. Unless everyone forgets about Keith and lets him float to the end, he's a higher priority target than Natalie, and if he wins immunity, they can vote out Jaclyn and Natalie has an idol anyway. If Keith wins immunity again at F4, there's a good chance he may not vote against Natalie, and a small chance one of Missy/Baylor may agree to go to the jury. If Keith is already gone before F4, then there's like a 90% chance that Natalie wins immunity.

# ¿ Dec 11, 2014 14:11

Fast Luck: Feb 2, 1988

He actually did seem to be doing sort of well? He had Baylor wanting to keep him at least past Keith, and he had Jon and Jaclyn liking him too. I'm not sure if it would have got him anything because he didn't have alliances or anything but there were some seeds there.

# ¿ Dec 11, 2014 19:15

Fast Luck: Feb 2, 1988

STAC Goat posted:

Missy seems like she might have done it because of her weird thing with Jon but I'm guessing Jon would have snaked Natalie to save Jaclyn just like he's snaked half the island.

This would be a bad move. He would lose Jaclyn's jury vote, and Natalie would vote for one of his opponents.

I think they should have shown that deal because it explains a major part of Jon and Missy's thinking. It seems the editors or producers did not like that story or the idea of people deliberately going to the jury, so they covered it up. If they really don't like it from a television perspective, they're lucky it didn't play out that way... but I wonder if they'll do a BvW again.

# ¿ Dec 12, 2014 21:46

Fast Luck: Feb 2, 1988

STAC Goat posted:

That's true, that he'd be losing Jaclyn's vote but the flip side is that he and Jaclyn would be giving themselves a 2 out 3 chance of winning instead of the 1 out of 3 chance he'd have

Er, I really don't think that's how the odds would work. They would have 2 out of 3 players in the final three, that is not a 2 out of 3 chance, nor does it even necessarily increase their odds at all. Whose votes exactly are Jaclyn picking up that Jon wouldn't have been able to get? Because anything else is just splitting his votes.

STAC Goat posted:

and Jon would build a strong argument that he took the game into his own hands instead of just teaming up with four other people, two of whom voluntarily fell on their own swords. I much rather vote for that guy than any of the five Getalong Gang who failed to play proactively.

This guy booted Jeremy and was the swing vote all game. Why does he need to do something to show he "took the game into his own hands" now?

STAC Goat posted:

I just don't see Jon as the kind of guy who would have been willing to take his fianc� out of the game for Natalie. Time and time again he went back on a deal and betrayed someone and he always had some rationalization for why he had to. I have no doubt that when the time came he would have found the one for taking out Natalie.

Maybe he'd be willing to if he thought he needed to keep Natalie out of the jury. But I don't think he was exactly worrying about losing to Natalie, heh.

STAC Goat posted:

Hell, he was already working it out with that whole "she messed up the vote so people are mad at her and she might be easy to get out if Keith wins immunity" thing he said at the start of the episode.

I thought he said she messed up the vote and he was going to tell the jury about it, and she'd sure look bad in front of the jury. :lol:

STAC Goat posted:

We didn't know about the deal at that time so we didn't realize that he was snaking another deal by saying that and really Baylor or Jaclyn had already agreed to be the first to go. But there it is. Jon was already plotting his move to betray Natalie, he just got beat to it by Natalie.

*slaps fanfiction soundboard button*

STAC Goat posted:

Then again we're also basing this all on Jon's say so. My guess is that this wasn't the solid deal Jon thought it was but it was more a passing conversation that Natalie, Baylor, and Jaclyn would all laugh off if asked. It just doesn't seem to fit them at all. On the other hand Jon's proven himself gullible and overconfident so I could see him just buying it Day 28 or whatever and never mentioning it again.

I agree that Jon and probably Missy were taking it more seriously than were Baylor and Natalie.

# ¿ Dec 12, 2014 22:11

Fast Luck: Feb 2, 1988

BGrifter posted:

Keith would pretty much be a less endearing Fabio, the Survivor jury equivalent of mucking your ballot in protest. As it stands none of the idiots remaining deserve to win, but I'll take the comedy option of Keith over the rest given the choice.

The only exciting thing about the finale tonight is this abortion of a season is finally over. Hopefully next season bounces back.

Isn't the finale on Wednesday? I think they scrapped the Sunday finale tradition.

# ¿ Dec 14, 2014 19:13

Fast Luck: Feb 2, 1988

I agree people are kind of overhyping Keith's jury appeal. I don't think he was actually buddies with anyone in the game except Wes and probably Alec. Reed? Josh? Jon? Jaclyn? Jeremy? Do any of those people actually like Keith? Not to mention Missy and Baylor.

# ¿ Dec 15, 2014 02:40

Fast Luck: Feb 2, 1988

Milovan Drecun posted:

I think Josh and Jeremy (at least very early on) both liked Keith as a person, maybe Reed as well. But those are all dudes likely to vote on game play which is not going to help him.

I think Jeremy got pretty pissed at Keith after the idol thing though. I think Keith burned that bridge.

# ¿ Dec 15, 2014 03:17

Fast Luck: Feb 2, 1988

Natalie isn't a goat. She's played hard and played well, going back to the early stages. When the guys were a mess and Drew was voting Kelley like a badass, Natalie pulled together the women to vote him out. Natalie went to Exile Island in place of Julie in order to solidify her bond with Baylor, and, in turn, Missy. Natalie was tight as can be with Jeremy but people didn't even realize how tight and Jeremy was their priority target.

Natalie made a kind of crazy move in keeping Keith, but covered it up successfully somehow so even if it seemed bad, it seems to have worked out for now. And, finally, Natalie just spearheaded the move to take out Jon, getting vengeance and taking out probably her biggest jury threat. She's guaranteed safe into the F4 because she has an immunity idol. If she makes it to the end she probably wins.

If she wins F4 immunity, which she has a good chance at (esp with Missy having a broken ankle, and even moreso if Keith goes out in fifth) then she gets to the end. If Keith is still around, there's a chance he will stick with her, too, because he's Keith. And finally, there's still a chance Missy or Baylor might willingly go to the jury at F4 which would guarantee Natalie's safety to the end (this possibility seems slightly stronger now that Jon says there was a plan for half of each couple to take a dive, and Missy's foot might also factor in). All of this lines up very well for Natalie.

She can still lose but she's put herself in a great position by virtue of being a good player.

# ¿ Dec 16, 2014 18:52

Fast Luck: Feb 2, 1988

Haha Natalie hosed up. You just voted out her fiance, you know she's pissed. Don't poke her ! It was Jaclyn that started totally raging, but Jaclyn was also right that Missy had just said "outside of the game" she's loyal to a fault and Jaclyn had said "Jon too" so it wasn't the right moment for Natalie to bring up the Jeremy blindside - even though you know she's been waiting to give the justification ever since the vote happened.

# ¿ Dec 18, 2014 02:11

Fast Luck: Feb 2, 1988

This advantage seems pretty big.

# ¿ Dec 18, 2014 02:30

Fast Luck: Feb 2, 1988

Did Jeff talk about BIG MOVES enough to cause someone to possibly throw their game in an attempt to make one???

# ¿ Dec 18, 2014 02:58

Fast Luck: Feb 2, 1988

Farmguy69 was RIGHT!!!

(Dale was correct when he said those twinnies are sneaky in ep1.)

# ¿ Dec 18, 2014 03:00

Fast Luck: Feb 2, 1988

Holy poo poo Missy just said "come on Natalie." I am floored

# ¿ Dec 18, 2014 03:13

Fast Luck: Feb 2, 1988

Jaclyn destroyed that puzzle but has no idea how to work the pole :lol:

# ¿ Dec 18, 2014 03:18

Fast Luck: Feb 2, 1988

I didn't expect any of what happened tonight and I think this season just got a lot better.

# ¿ Dec 18, 2014 03:38

Fast Luck: Feb 2, 1988

xbilkis posted:

Yeah I was kind of worried by the meandering pace of the first hour but once it got to the tribal council the episode really took off.

And now the inevitable Natalie coronation will be a nice conclusion to the season!

If she wins this season is cool.

if she loses, this season is.........

# ¿ Dec 18, 2014 03:56

Fast Luck: Feb 2, 1988

Lone Goat posted:

Did Jaclyn even explain why she should be voted sole survivor?

Yeah, she was in the middle a lot of the time and made a lot of important decisions, including voting out Josh, which turned the game, and then when she was alone she survived, winning an immunity challenge. I'm not saying this to defend her, she really said this stuff. Natalie obviously owns regardless though, and Jaclyn isn't that good.

# ¿ Dec 18, 2014 04:04

Fast Luck: Feb 2, 1988

UltimoDragonQuest posted:

You idiots lost the game because you took a third girl to the finals instead of a boy!

Looks like they would've lost regardless. Sounds about right to me. I'm glad Natalie said she would've voted Missy. Missy was better than Keith.

# ¿ Dec 18, 2014 04:28

Fast Luck: Feb 2, 1988

Unmerciful posted:

He knew Natalie was going to win and didn't want Missy to get $100k for second place - only explanation that makes sense and fits in with how bitter he is

I bet this is true and gently caress Reed.

# ¿ Dec 18, 2014 04:29

Fast Luck: Feb 2, 1988

STAC Goat posted:

You know that bitchy comment about Natalie makes me think there was a Reed villain edit in there if they had wanted to make it.

There definitely was in my opinion. Why do you think he got an invisible edit? Why do you think everyone in his original tribe hated him? Combined with the anti-Missy speech and anti-Missy hate-vote, yeah I don't like him.

# ¿ Dec 18, 2014 04:35

Fast Luck: Feb 2, 1988

No there wasn't. She could've had Keith voting Baylor too and just not wanted her people to talk to each other because she wants everything hush hush. She could have had Missy and Baylor doing a vote split or something. Who knows? You can't say Jaclyn should have divined the fact that Natalie was about to play an idol on her, that requires near omniscience.

# ¿ Dec 18, 2014 21:19

Fast Luck: Feb 2, 1988

Unmerciful posted:

No he wouldn't - if they tie for 2nd they both get $100k... Vytas did the same thing with Gervase/Monica and I thought it was a dick move then too.

I just checked though and the difference between 2nd and 3rd place is only like $15k not $50k like I thought so I take it back - not really a huge deal

Actually I'm sure that if the two people tie, they split the money. Instead of getting $100k and $75k they will both get $87.5.

edit: oh, beaten.

Fast Luck fucked around with this message at 00:42 on Dec 19, 2014

# ¿ Dec 19, 2014 00:39

Fast Luck: Feb 2, 1988

I really didn't like Reed. Maybe he could come back in a HvV type of season and do okay. He definitely belongs with the villains, obviously.

His RHAP appearance where he just went into that long explanation about how he was the one that got Jeremy booted - I just plain don't believe it. The TV show demonstrated how much of it was because of Jon's fear of Jeremy and in Rob's boot interview with Missy, when she was asked about it, she went all into the reasons why she chose Jon over Jeremy, and didn't even mention Reed.

Throw in the weird splits he did when accepting that immunity necklace, and the type of speech he designed for the jury, and I really get the impression of him being pretty smug, kind of cruel, and very about himself.

# ¿ Dec 19, 2014 17:17

Fast Luck: Feb 2, 1988

Baddog posted:

In one of the podcasts, I think Jon said it was the plan all along to 'sacrifice' Baylor and Jaclyn, and have a final three of Missy/Natalie/Jon. Somehow we ended up with Missy/Natalie/Jaclyn, which seems pretty close to that. I'm kinda feeling like the editors hid all of that discussion because the plan never really got deviated from except for Natalie "blindsiding" swapping Jaclyn for Jon (which was a good move, Jon might have actually gotten more than a few of the mouthbreather votes). Probably why Jeff really doesn't want to do blood vs water again, since if there are a few couples around toward the end, a lot of the strategy discussion is going to be basically colluding to get one of your pair on the jury for lobbying and a locked up vote, but not giving up too much power in the game. Prolly made editing all of that out a nightmare.

I think you're right on the mark with that post. I think they made that F3 deal and the editors didn't want us to see it. Meanwhile, Natalie obviously wanted revenge against Jon, and if Jon was there he may have won, so they booted him. But that's why Jon was so overconfident and talking about being at the jury in terms of "when" and not "if," because supposedly all five of their five was going to be represented at FTC. And we did see hints of this stuff btw in the finale with Missy and Baylor talking about if they both should go to the end, and Missy definitely seemed to want Baylor to drop out but Baylor wanted to keep playing. Personally I would've liked to see that stuff but maybe they were really afraid how the casual fan would react to people planning to be voted out.

# ¿ Dec 19, 2014 20:14

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# ¿ May 21, 2024 02:34

Fast Luck: Feb 2, 1988

Jaclyn sounded entirely on board with it, and I think Missy was also. But it's like any alliance or plan, several of the people may be in on it but some may harbor misgivings and just be faking it. Natalie and Baylor were faking their agreement, but the deal still happened.

# ¿ Dec 20, 2014 01:25

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