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MJBuddy
Sep 22, 2008

Now I do not know whether I was then a head coach dreaming I was a Saints fan, or whether I am now a Saints fan, dreaming I am a head coach.

anime gently caress pillow posted:

Green Bay's offensive line is actually pretty decent at pass pro

No it isn't. Going back from last year, 26th, 31st, 23rd, 21st in adjusted sack rate.

At their best, they're just "below average" but really they're bad. Very far away from "pretty decent".

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MJBuddy
Sep 22, 2008

Now I do not know whether I was then a head coach dreaming I was a Saints fan, or whether I am now a Saints fan, dreaming I am a head coach.

BlindSite posted:

I can see McCown throwing 3 interceptions against that Carolina front seven. Am I nuts or is the Buccs being favourites insane?

I mean the argument is that he simply throw it anywhere else on the field other than the box, because 80% of that space is his giant receivers and the other 20% is the DBs they're trucking as they make the catch.

I mean I think Panthers win but it's still a one trick pony team. Just an insanely good trick.

MJBuddy
Sep 22, 2008

Now I do not know whether I was then a head coach dreaming I was a Saints fan, or whether I am now a Saints fan, dreaming I am a head coach.

brandino posted:

Re: the Panthers, is it likely they run a lot of 2 TE sets? (In part to make up for blocking with the crappy o-line, and in part to give Cam a quick pass option). I don't remember seeing a lot of that in the preseason, but they did also sign a shitload of TEs including Ed Dickson.

Sure? Why not? It's not like having a WR out there instead is worth anything. At least the TE can block.

MJBuddy
Sep 22, 2008

Now I do not know whether I was then a head coach dreaming I was a Saints fan, or whether I am now a Saints fan, dreaming I am a head coach.

Slowpoke! posted:

I don't know what to think about the Panthers just yet. They have some guys who could be absolute studs at important positions on both sides of the ball, and the huge question marks everywhere else. They could go out and trash the opposing team's QB with their pass rush and stuff everything with their great front 7, or they could get their secondary picked apart every game. Stewart, Williams and Newton could combine together to be the best rushing team in the NFL, or they could drop off the planet from their injuries and a weaker OL. The WRs could be a huge improvement (because it couldn't get that much worse), or somehow they could be that much worse because chemistry is a thing and Cam hasn't practiced much.

But hey, I'm looking forward to it. I like playing the Bucs, because we always get fired up for them. Obviously it's not the same as back when both teams were good and we had those players who seemed to hate each other, but they're still one of our biggest rivalries.

I'd go with the line that you should assume younger guys get better but the team as a whole regresses, unless Cam actually improves this year.

Secondary should be worse, front seven should actually probably improve because their best players are all young and still probably in the upward progress stage.

The offense should still be bad, and probably worse. They went from horrible selection of WRs to a worse selection + a rookie who they basically want to become Jimmy Graham. That's not bad, assuming Cam can look off defenders or the offense is sophisticated enough to create the gaps they want, or that they want to take the player who is very likely their most talented receiver and put him in the slot. The Panthers are going to be a nightmare when they shed their horrible contracts, but they should have come in a favorite for the South. Still, I'm nervous about just how great the front seven is, and in the long run that's only tempered by the size of the contracts those guys are all going to get the second Carolina shed their horrible dead weight and basically has to start over (of course my team will be in an identical situation and then the Bucs/Atlanta will re-emerge for a few horrible years).

Carolina's backs combine to be the best short yardage team in the league, but their meager O Line limits second level blocking and a general strategy of "don't let the QB take 20 hits a game" (a strategy they seem pretty bad at, really) means the threat doesn't always have teeth.

I think I'm with you though - with the murmurs of Cam possibly sitting the opener because of the rib injury (not likely), I found myself wondering who I wanted to win that game. I want the better team to lose, but I'm not sure which of the teams is better, or how good either team is. I know what I expect from individual players, but as a whole I don't know what the final products look like.

For the matchup: I think on paper the Bucs offense has a good counter to the front seven if they take the route that Seattle use on the Saints three years ago: Line up in the shotgun with receivers set all the way at the sidelines and a single tailback. Get more receivers on the field and spread the LBs out, so that you can make the gaps large for them. Answer pressure with valves to your good RB who excels in space, and if you see your WRs are in man one on one throw it up and high to them because they're bigger than your DBs. McCown can actually do that, so they might be able to pull it off. A good D line is a counter for everything except screen passes, which the LBs reject (though Martin is really really good at screen passes).

Also: throw at whoever Harper is covering. Putting Harper in the box to blitz with the current front seven feels stupid, because it just creates a gap on a defense that had no gaps at all. It's not like Harper can do anything else, though, so whatever.

As for Carolina's offense: all defenses are a good counter, so and McCoy is going to annoy their line, and their defense (while not Carolina good) is really good. They don't pass rush well, but they're great against the run. Revis is gone but Verner is preeeeetty good - probably about the 7th best DB in the league and improving. Revis looked worse last year because he was kept in zone (which we/media mocked them for way more than they mock Seattle for doing essentially the same thing, despite Schiano doing it for similar reasons and getting pretty good results without anywhere near the cast Seattle has). I have no idea who Verner will cover, or what they'll do specifically against Carolina other than try to contain Cam and get coverage sacks.

MJBuddy
Sep 22, 2008

Now I do not know whether I was then a head coach dreaming I was a Saints fan, or whether I am now a Saints fan, dreaming I am a head coach.
I was hoping to do something similar looking at the Saints game, particularly contrasting Thomas and Byrd and see how Atlanta torched us.

If it pans out, we should create a blog to repository this stuff. I'd really enjoy working on it. Didn't see coaches film available for me as of yesterday, though.

MJBuddy
Sep 22, 2008

Now I do not know whether I was then a head coach dreaming I was a Saints fan, or whether I am now a Saints fan, dreaming I am a head coach.

Intruder posted:

23 missed tackles in a game :stare:

A third of it is just Kenny Vacarro and half of it is him and Byrd.

MJBuddy
Sep 22, 2008

Now I do not know whether I was then a head coach dreaming I was a Saints fan, or whether I am now a Saints fan, dreaming I am a head coach.

Kirios posted:

Is Kenny Vaccaro any good? I thought he had a solid rookie year last year.

This was probably his worst game since starting. He had rookie coverage issues a bit last year but learns real fast and is multiple so the scheme fits him well.

The idea is that him playing under and Byrd being over kills the middle of the field and Lewis shuts down receivers on the edge. The other edge is a problem on paper. In reality, Vacarro missed too many tackles and Byrd played too far back from the line. It's very fixable if they just shift their positioning a bit, and it will be less noticeable vs teams without QBs who can do 4 progressions, which is a new skill for Ryan that he got very good at last year. I hope it looks better vs Brown's and I'll go into panic mode if it doesn't.

MJBuddy
Sep 22, 2008

Now I do not know whether I was then a head coach dreaming I was a Saints fan, or whether I am now a Saints fan, dreaming I am a head coach.

Chilichimp posted:

He sucked at it last year because the line wouldn't hold up long enough to get past 1 or 2. He's had a 4-5 step progression since Julio was drafted, 2012 being the most successful in that span. Adding Jaquizz that year really helped because Turner couldn't catch a ball for poo poo.

He had a two-three most years and the good sense to throw the ball out of play if it wasn't there. You can see it in his stat splits. Last year he improved a ton because well, he had to.

He's become very good. Given the Flacco comparisons and jokes, he's vastly outgained him since.

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MJBuddy
Sep 22, 2008

Now I do not know whether I was then a head coach dreaming I was a Saints fan, or whether I am now a Saints fan, dreaming I am a head coach.

NippleFloss posted:

Honestly even in the game this Sunday he still didn't have a ton of time before pressure was getting there, he was just going through his progressions and getting rid of the ball very quickly. There's been a lot of head shaking at how ineffective the Saints defensive line was at getting to Ryan, but part of that was that he was making good decisions and getting the ball out when he needed to. He's turned into a really good quarterback, which sucks because the Saints had a lot better shot at running the division when he was captain checkdown.

Thankfully, the Atlanta defense looks almost as bad as the Saints defense did, so the division is still pretty wide open.

I think part of it was also that they let the linemen get away with tons of hooking on outside rushes. Every stunt Galette ran ended up with him and a DL falling over each other and when he went outside he'd just get dragged away.

I think it was equivalent for both teams and Drew definitely got away a few times where it looked marginal - just the style of officiating they have.

I DO have coaches cam, and a quick look has a few cool things I'd like to throw together, like Saints running my favorite Madden Play and Cooks just being open for like 5 seconds. I think Brees actually stopped and had to think because there were so many good places to throw the ball. Also Cooks is fast, god drat.

E: It says only for selected plays, so I might not get to look at the ones I want, like the 27 yard Jones completion where it really exposes how bad our zones were set up.

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