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Welcome to the Eastern Europe thread part the third CAVEATTom Clancy chat in this thread is forbidden. It derails into pages and pages of pointless arguing and shits up the discussion and dissemination of news. DON'T DO IT! You have been warned. Russia's invasion of Ukraine dominates the discussion, but anything happening in Eastern Europe is relevant to the thread. Here are some good videos to watch if you have no idea what the hell is going on between Russia and the rest of Eastern Europe and why this is happening right now. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EL_09mazZs8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMv9EvthOrQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6jHhzj08yQ  Why did Russia invade Ukraine? Putin and the Kremlin refuse to admit it, but about 4,000 -5,000 (possibly more) Russian troops are in Ukraine aiding the “separatists” in their struggle to establish the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic. Both of these regions fly the NovoRossyia (Новоро́ссия) flag and insist they are separate states breaking away from Ukraine. In reality, the people who run these “republics” are Russians who control a ragtag militia of mercenaries from Russia and the Caucasus. They were losing badly to the Ukrainian National Guard, so that is why Russia stepped up and took on a more active role, but not really. On September 3rd an announcement of a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia was quickly backtracked when the Kremlin realized if they agreed to a ceasefire they would have to admit they're directly involved. Really, they're not.  On September 5 more talks will take place in Minsk, Belarus. Ukraine officially is not involved in these talks, it's mostly NovoRossyia representatives making demands and the OSCE listening to them. NovoRossyia will look like this if they are successful in driving Ukraine out of the territory.  This provides a land route for Russia to access Occupied Crimea and cuts off Ukraine from the Black Sea. Another objective would be to connect Russia to Transdniestria, a breakaway state from Moldova. So far, Western Europe's response to much of this has been very  The French did have a contract to sell two Mistral war ships to Russia, but President Hollande realized his popularity couldn't possibly tank any more with the French people and canceled the deal. Angela  Poland Former Prime Minister Donald Tusk is now president of the European Council. Poland has been extremely vocal about the threat Russia poses to their country and the Baltic States. President Obama was in Estonia yesterday to discuss the beefing up of NATO in the Baltics. This is not a new development, Poland has wanted a stronger NATO presence in the region for some time, but the European members of the alliance have been reluctant, believing doing more would provoke Russia. That argument seems pointless now. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania The Baltic States have good reason to be nervous about Russia. Kaliningrad was cut off from the rest of Russia when the Soviet Union broke apart. It seems unthinkable that Russia would do this, but then it was also unthinkable that Russia would annex Crimea and invade Eastern Ukraine. The Baltics are not assuming a passive role, they're setting up strategic bases and NATO countries, mostly the United States are sending in equipment and troops for a stronger presence. Yes, The Baltics are members of NATO, but recent events in Ukraine are good enough reason to speculate that the Russians may be just crazy enough. Russia using any sort of aggression on the Baltic States is still highly unlikely, but who knows? Belarus This former Soviet Republic is like the eye of the hurricane. While everyone else rattles sabres and hurls sanctions and threats at each other, Lukashenko has maintained law and order in Belarus the best way he knows how – by not allowing a shred of dissent to ever get any public acknowledgement. There is no opposition in this country to speak of. Anyone who has a history creating public displays against the regime gets harassed and imprisoned for any minor charge the court feels like using. The Belarusian people watch the same news the Russians do, and so their understanding of what is happening in Ukraine is the same: Kyiv has been overrun by a homonazi junta supported by the EU and the United States; they threaten the sovereignty of Russia and they're the evil aggressors in Eastern Ukraine. Russia is simply struggling to save their country from this satanic threat from the west. Russia meanwhile is in the process of setting up a military base in Belarus. This is also not a new development. The plans to set up an air base in Lida began in 2012. Now with the conflict in Ukraine the base will be moved south to Baranovichi. Lukashenko is looking forward to being re-elected in 2015 and ruling Belarus for another 5 years. He's in his mid 50's and has no intention of stepping down any time soon. The chances of a repeat of the 2010 election are slim to none.  Minsk has become the meeting place for discussions on the crisis in Ukraine. A recent summit/Customs Union meeting in Minsk brought Ukraine's President Poroshenko and Putin together for the first time. The meeting was a complete failure to resolve anything between the two countries. It did however provide some breathtaking photo ops.  Finally, thanks to Russia's sweeping sanctions banning food from just about everywhere else on Earth, Belarus has become the  Georgia and Moldova Signed the Association Agreement with the European Union in June with Ukraine, and feeling the effects from Russia. The food service on Moldovan commercial flights features plenty of Moldovan apples. Moldova has close ties with Romania, which is a member of the EU and NATO. These are two more countries that were once part of the Soviet Union and watch the war in Ukraine with nervous eyes. Sanctions This has been the main method of the EU and US to punish Russia for its aggression with Ukraine. Russia has retaliated with sanctions, most recently banning commodities and consumable goods from the EU, US, Canada, Japan, Australia and several other countries. Russia's food prices are climbing, and many countries dependent on their exports to Russia are stuck with perishable food with no place to go. The EU announced more sanctions will be coming soon. The UK recently suggested cutting off Russia from the SWIFT banking network. Stay tuned to find out what the EU will do next. Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 The Ukrainian National Guard secured enough of the region where the wreckage was spread in August for airline officials and investigators from Malaysia and Europe to get in and gather as much evidence as they could, but then Russia began shelling Ukraine from the border and they gave up. Their preliminary report will be released next week on September 9. Russian media reported that the separatists were not responsible for the downing of the plane, but rather it was a Ukrainian military aircraft that shot it from the air. There is no substantial evidence to support this. The evidence of a BUK missile launcher in the area at the time is very conclusive, and there is audio evidence that the separatists were aware of what happened moments after the plane crashed. Strelkov, the former commander of the separatists also published on his VK page that they had shot down what they thought was a Ukrainian plane, but the status message disappeared quickly when it became public the plane was actually MH17. Thread Norms It can't be stressed enough to avoid Tom Clancy fanfiction chat. Don't do it. This is a D&D thread, so of course discussion is encouraged. If you come to the thread regurgitating Kremlin talking points to troll the discussion, you will be called out for it. The Russian people are perfectly aware that Russian media's portrayal of Ukraine being overrun by Gayupe homonazis and Kyiv is the epicenter of the new satanic junta threatening good Christian Russia is bullshit. We're also aware that Ukraine is capable of pushing out some pretty obvious propaganda and that will be treated the same.  Discussion about any country in Eastern Europe is welcome here. This includes the Balkan States, Armenia and Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and possibly other former Soviet republics in Central Asia as the situation progresses. None of these countries at this point can afford to believe it won't happen here. Live UA Map has fairly consistent real-time updates, but their map isn't always accurate. The #Ukraine tag on twitter is a good place for as it happens information. The OP will be updated as needed.
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Sep 4, 2014 16:17
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From the last thread, relevant important stuff happening in Mariupol: sparatuvs posted:Some people are reporting that the assault on Mariupol has begun
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Sep 4, 2014 16:18
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Update:quote:Natalka Gumenyuk, @HromadskeTV: positions of Ukrainian army near Mariupol are completely destroyed, there are wounded and killed Don't seem to be holding up too well.
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Sep 4, 2014 16:18
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The thread icon change makes me sad.
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Sep 4, 2014 16:24
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I can't wait to hear how Putin justifies "separatist" shelling and bombing of civilians in Mariupol.
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Sep 4, 2014 16:25
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Lucy Heartfilia posted:The thread icon change makes me sad. Me too, but right now it's accurate.
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Sep 4, 2014 16:28
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God drat my aunt in Mariupol texted me about 6 hours ago that everything was alright And it is too late for her and grandmother to escape to their dacha
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Sep 4, 2014 16:29
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Could you define "tomclancy chat?" I am trying to learn as much about the Russian order of battle as possible, especially in regards to how it is integrated with separatist units.
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Sep 4, 2014 16:29
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Are there any other former soviet republics that have significant Russian ethnic enclaves? Or is it only Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Latvia (NATO), Estonia (NATO), and Kazakhstan?
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Sep 4, 2014 16:30
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Dilkington posted:Could you define "tomclancy chat?" I am trying to learn as much about the Russian order of battle as possible, especially in regards to how it is integrated with separatist units. Does suggesting that Poroshenko should have stabbed Putin while he had the chance qualify?
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Sep 4, 2014 16:31
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eXXon posted:I can't wait to hear how Putin justifies "separatist" shelling and bombing of civilians in Mariupol. He won't it never happened, Ukraine did it just like MH17.
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Sep 4, 2014 16:31
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eXXon posted:I can't wait to hear how Putin justifies "separatist" shelling and bombing of civilians in Mariupol. Ukrainians are seeking asylum in Russia, city occupied by mercenaries.
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Sep 4, 2014 16:36
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Dilkington posted:Could you define "tomclancy chat?" I am trying to learn as much about the Russian order of battle as possible, especially in regards to how it is integrated with separatist units. This mostly refers to discussion of Russia and NATO escalating into an all out nuclear World War III with plenty of plot twists you would expect in a Tom Clancy novel. Never mind about Russia announcing holding nuclear readiness drills or Sweden and Finland just did some stuff at the NATO summit in Cardiff. 
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Sep 4, 2014 16:37
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esquilax posted:Are there any other former soviet republics that have significant Russian ethnic enclaves? Or is it only Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Latvia (NATO), Estonia (NATO), and Kazakhstan?
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Sep 4, 2014 16:38
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kalstrams posted:Belarus too. Belarus is subservient enough to Russia I think it's generally agreed they're not under any threat from "little green men."
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Sep 4, 2014 16:41
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Pakled posted:Belarus is subservient enough to Russia I think it's generally agreed they're not under any threat from "little green men."
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Sep 4, 2014 16:43
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Explaining the joke ruins it but I've got nothing and have to ask: what's the thread title referencing?
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Sep 4, 2014 16:44
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:This mostly refers to discussion of Russia and NATO escalating into an all out nuclear World War III with plenty of plot twists you would expect in a Tom Clancy novel. Never mind about Russia announcing holding nuclear readiness drills or Sweden and Finland just did some stuff at the NATO summit in Cardiff. Is Host Nation Support stuff like this a step toward NATO membership? Or could someone with better knowledge of NATO structure explain the significance of Finland and Sweden signing a HNS memorandum?
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Sep 4, 2014 16:45
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Valiantman posted:Explaining the joke ruins it but I've got nothing and have to ask: what's the thread title referencing? http://forums.somethingawful.com/dictionary.php?act=3&topicid=2071
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Sep 4, 2014 16:46
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Valiantman posted:Explaining the joke ruins it but I've got nothing and have to ask: what's the thread title referencing? Zybourne Clock. The most infamous ill-fated goon project.
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Sep 4, 2014 16:46
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esquilax posted:Are there any other former soviet republics that have significant Russian ethnic enclaves? Or is it only Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Latvia (NATO), Estonia (NATO), and Kazakhstan? The independence movements in Georgia aren't russian.
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Sep 4, 2014 16:47
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:This mostly refers to discussion of Russia and NATO escalating into an all out nuclear World War III with plenty of plot twists you would expect in a Tom Clancy novel. Never mind about Russia announcing holding nuclear readiness drills or Sweden and Finland just did some stuff at the NATO summit in Cardiff. So in simple terms, just don't go off on wild hypothetical tangents, just stick to what's actually happening and the near future?
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Sep 4, 2014 16:56
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Valiantman posted:Explaining the joke ruins it but I've got nothing and have to ask: what's the thread title referencing?
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Sep 4, 2014 16:57
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A Fancy 400 lbs posted:So in simple terms, just don't go off on wild hypothetical tangents, just stick to what's actually happening and the near future? Exactly. There is enough real stuff happening to talk about.
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Sep 4, 2014 16:59
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Continuing a topic from the previous thread...Charlz Guybon posted:Can't he sell them the ships to someone else? Surely there's a market out there for them. India for instance has been greatly expanding their navy of late. Well, he's pulled the delivery of the sale, so who knows, maybe he will. To be clear, as I said in the previous thread, I'm glad Hollande said he couldn't deliver the ships that Russia bought. It was the right thing to do. But it's kind of dumb to condemn him for not doing it immediately when it probably is going to be the final nail in his political coffin.
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Sep 4, 2014 17:07
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Pellisworth posted:Is Host Nation Support stuff like this a step toward NATO membership? Or could someone with better knowledge of NATO structure explain the significance of Finland and Sweden signing a HNS memorandum?
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Sep 4, 2014 17:12
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Interesting article in Kievpost yesterday: http://www.kyivpost.com/content/russia-and-former-soviet-union/russian-soldier-dies-in-ukraine-because-there-was-no-other-job-363238.html
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Sep 4, 2014 17:13
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When this recent "invasion" talk started (a week ago, maybe?) there was a lot of talk of Russian armour rolling openly into Ukraine. I haven't seen any confirmation or follow-up on that; did it happen, or was this propaganda from Kiev? I'm also wondering how the numbers of Russian fighters in Ukraine are being found. They seem pretty willing to say "I'm Russian" when asked, but how do these get counted over such a large area? Is it a news agency, government, ngo etc. I saw something on BBC on foreign (ie not Russian or Ukrainian) fighters as well. Is there a count on Ukrainian separatist fighters? And hell, while I'm at it, are there any numbers on the forces that Kiev is mustering at this point? A poster above was asking about the order of battle and I guess I want basically the same thing, though I'm sure reliable info is tough to come by.
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Sep 4, 2014 17:24
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Pakled posted:Zybourne Clock. The most infamous ill-fated goon project. As opposed to the most pervasive ill-fated goon project, ie: not dying alone.  Sergiu64 posted:Interesting article in Kievpost yesterday: Boy, this is bleak. Talk about dying for nothing.
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Sep 4, 2014 17:24
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Count Roland posted:When this recent "invasion" talk started (a week ago, maybe?) there was a lot of talk of Russian armour rolling openly into Ukraine. I haven't seen any confirmation or follow-up on that; did it happen, or was this propaganda from Kiev? It almost certainly happened, if anything the proof is simply how overwhelmed the Ukrainian army is at the moment, and there has been video of Russian units in Ukraine. I think they are broad estimates based on the front, the Ukrainian army I assume has a way to calculate opposing forces. Unfortunately the Russians are "tight-lipped" about it and the Ukrainians aren't talking about how many troops they are putting into action. Wikipedia has said "30 to 50 thousand" but I suspect that is pretty high, the Ukrainians have taken pretty heavy losses recently including captured troops.
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Sep 4, 2014 17:28
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Cameron and Poroshenko in Cardiff. 
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Sep 4, 2014 17:40
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Count Roland posted:When this recent "invasion" talk started (a week ago, maybe?) there was a lot of talk of Russian armour rolling openly into Ukraine. I haven't seen any confirmation or follow-up on that; did it happen, or was this propaganda from Kiev? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMmNHZetNn0 New Russian Roulette dispatch: https://news.vice.com/video/russian-roulette-dispatch-73?utm_source=vicenewstwitter 
ass struggle fucked around with this message at 18:10 on Sep 4, 2014 |
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Sep 4, 2014 17:52
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Count Roland posted:When this recent "invasion" talk started (a week ago, maybe?) there was a lot of talk of Russian armour rolling openly into Ukraine. I haven't seen any confirmation or follow-up on that; did it happen, or was this propaganda from Kiev? Other than pictures of armoured columns from satellite imagery/roadside stuff, probably the best indicator is the change in fortunes for the UA, 2 weeks ago they were pushing hard against the rebels, making gains, encircling forces and it looked like the rebels were close to collapse with the only real threat being cross border artillery from Russia. Now the rebels suddenly are pushing from everywhere with armour/heavy weapons operated by experienced and well co-ordinated soldiers, opening up an entire new front while the UA fall back in disarray. There doesn't seem to be much information about deployed UA forces, some chatter about them not really deploying in force against the rebels/holding back equipment, which if they have been expecting an invasion in full from Russia would be the sensible thing I guess. The next week or two will be essential, and things can change, but unless the UA steps up with something solid soon to stop the rot, Putin will landlock the Ukraine with a nice puppet state before the EU can even agree on further sanctions 
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Sep 4, 2014 17:54
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The thing that worries me most about the Russians successfully gaining eastern Ukraine is that it was always first on the list in Russian ultranationalist plans for the new Russian empire. It would mean they are following their brazenly publically stated plans and they likely won't stop there. Future ultranationalist plans include retaking Lithuania, Poland and Turkey. While they are very unlikely to pull this off the timescale for this could be decades. Decades of countries neighboring Russia being harassed and manipulated. What a miserable century this could be. This is assuming America can reverse or at least stall its current decline. If it declines further and Nato collapses then all bets are off. It's worth pointing out that Russian nationalists bragged about how they were going to gently caress Georgia up years before it happened as well. Then they said it about Ukraine and here we are. Look to who they threaten NOW to see where the future war zones will be. Russians aren't bad at secrecy, they just don't seem to give a gently caress.
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Sep 4, 2014 17:57
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The Russians don't seem to be in a hurry though, taking their sweet time going for Mariupol let alone down to Crimea or to Kharkiv. Putin might be aiming for more of a Georgia "solution" or he'd dedicate more troops to this venture. Considering Russia had way better odds of going full hog in Georgia (relative size, troop strengths, fig-leafs) and didn't it doesn't look like they'll be going full scale invasion now either unless something big changes.
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Sep 4, 2014 17:58
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sparatuvs posted:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMmNHZetNn0 Thanks for the VICE link, I'd forgotten they did some good stuff during the Maidan protests. Whats up with that first source, "Press TV"? That isn't the Iranian Press TV- do you know anything about the organization, possible biases they have?
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Sep 4, 2014 18:03
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Pimpmust posted:The Russians don't seem to be in a hurry though, taking their sweet time going for Mariupol let alone down to Crimea or to Kharkiv. Yeah, I figured that was their strategy: create a permanent crisis in the region that the Ukrainian army can't put down on its own. It seems like the smart strategy - very Sherman-esque.
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Sep 4, 2014 18:05
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sparatuvs posted:New Russian Roulette dispatch: Charred bodies after 6:50
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Sep 4, 2014 18:05
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Regarde Aduck posted:The thing that worries me most about the Russians successfully gaining eastern Ukraine is that it was always first on the list in Russian ultranationalist plans for the new Russian empire. It would mean they are following their brazenly publically stated plans and they likely won't stop there. Future ultranationalist plans include retaking Lithuania, Poland and Turkey. While they are very unlikely to pull this off the timescale for this could be decades. Decades of countries neighboring Russia being harassed and manipulated. What a miserable century this could be. This is assuming America can reverse or at least stall its current decline. If it declines further and Nato collapses then all bets are off. It's worth pointing out that Russian nationalists bragged about how they were going to gently caress Georgia up years before it happened as well. Then they said it about Ukraine and here we are. Look to who they threaten NOW to see where the future war zones will be. Russians aren't bad at secrecy, they just don't seem to give a gently caress. (Russia has never controlled Turkey)
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Sep 4, 2014 18:06
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Count Roland posted:Whats up with that first source, "Press TV"? That isn't the Iranian Press TV- do you know anything about the organization, possible biases they have? Fairly sure they're just a random Youtube channel that uploads news-related videos. Can't find any more info about them online and their logo is amateurish. It's not the original source for that video either.
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Sep 4, 2014 18:07
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