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Count Roland posted:(Russia has never controlled Turkey) Controlling Istambul/Constantinople was a dream of the pre-WW1 Russian empire, which is probably good enough reason for them due to them considering themselves to be the inheritors of the Byzantine/Roman Empire.
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Sep 4, 2014 18:08
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Count Roland posted:(Russia has never controlled Turkey)
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Sep 4, 2014 18:09
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Count Roland posted:(Russia has never controlled Turkey) I think he's referring to Russia's historical obsession with retaking and re-christian orthodoxing Constantinople. Edit - goddamit
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Sep 4, 2014 18:10
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Present posted:I think he's referring to Russia's historical obsession with retaking and re-christian orthodoxing Constantinople. Given how dickish a lot of Turkish politicians have been about trying to turn Hagia Sophia back into a Mosque, it might be a lateral move. (there needs to be a crying Byzantine smiley here)
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Sep 4, 2014 18:17
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I take it "no Clancychat" means "don't discuss the possibility of Baltic incursion, despite this now being openly talked about in several mainstream news outlets" rather than "don't discuss Russia's plans to invade Turkey you have made up here and now". That's an interesting rule.
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Sep 4, 2014 18:24
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I mentioned the Baltics in the OP. There is plenty of real discussion about it, and NATO is increasing their presence there. Russia invading Turkey any time soon and kicking out those pesky Ottomans once and for all doesn't belong. VVVVV What he said too, The Baltics are full members of NATO and it's really really unlikely Russia would go there. HUGE PUBES A PLUS fucked around with this message at 18:30 on Sep 4, 2014 |
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Sep 4, 2014 18:28
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vegetables posted:I take it "no Clancychat" means "don't discuss the possibility of Baltic incursion, despite this now being openly talked about in several mainstream news outlets" That says more about how dumb mainstream news outlets are, than about that actually being a likely turn of events.
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Sep 4, 2014 18:28
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Regarde Aduck posted:The thing that worries me most about the Russians successfully gaining eastern Ukraine is that it was always first on the list in Russian ultranationalist plans for the new Russian empire. It would mean they are following their brazenly publically stated plans and they likely won't stop there. Future ultranationalist plans include retaking Lithuania, Poland and Turkey. While they are very unlikely to pull this off the timescale for this could be decades. Decades of countries neighboring Russia being harassed and manipulated. What a miserable century this could be. This is assuming America can reverse or at least stall its current decline. If it declines further and Nato collapses then all bets are off. It's worth pointing out that Russian nationalists bragged about how they were going to gently caress Georgia up years before it happened as well. Then they said it about Ukraine and here we are. Look to who they threaten NOW to see where the future war zones will be. Russians aren't bad at secrecy, they just don't seem to give a gently caress. Is there any good information out there about these ultranationalist plans? Or does it basically amount to USSR minus communism?
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Sep 4, 2014 18:34
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I think there's a real difference between "THIRD ROME!!!!  " and "Russia forming a corridor to their Ethnic exclave". Like, the sort of difference that bridges the gap between Tom Clancy and Real loving Life. How many of us were just so sure and so serious about Putin not openly invading Ukraine? This is a new environment, previous calculus is clearly irrelevant.
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Sep 4, 2014 18:34
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Since Putin of all people believes he is in a Clancy novel I'm not sure no Clancychat works. How about a "no gameplanning WWIII, no talking about nuclear war" rule instead. Hopefully reality hasn't shifted enough that those are real options though posting them is probably jinxing it, sorry for the future nuclear war everyone.
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Sep 4, 2014 18:37
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MODS CURE JOKES posted:I think there's a real difference between "THIRD ROME!!!! I'm still pretty firmly of the opinion that the environment hasn't changed all that much, actually, at least as far as Putin's objective is concerned. The idea was always to keep Ukraine from falling into the West's strategic orbit, particularly in the form of NATO. He has thus far been successful; now the best way for him to make sure that success sticks is to create a permanent crisis in the Donbas to make sure that Ukraine remains weak, divided, and "not NATO material."
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Sep 4, 2014 18:42
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Best Friends posted:Since Putin of all people believes he is in a Clancy novel I'm not sure no Clancychat works. How about a "no gameplanning WWIII, no talking about nuclear war" rule instead. Hopefully reality hasn't shifted enough that those are real options though posting them is probably jinxing it, sorry for the future nuclear war everyone. That's more what I think of as Clancychat anyway. Not the weird geopolitical situations theorised but the people who come in and start comparing the NATO and Russian militaries and gaming out actual war scenarios. Also discussing the weird fixation some Russians have with the Byzantine Empire is pretty interesting to me.
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Sep 4, 2014 18:44
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futurebot 2000 posted:Is there any good information out there about these ultranationalist plans? Or does it basically amount to USSR minus communism? Yeah, maybe some Tsar Russia.
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Sep 4, 2014 18:48
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The New Black posted:Also discussing the weird fixation some Russians have with the Byzantine Empire is pretty interesting to me. Well, it's not THAT weird - the Russians had long-standing cultural ties to the Byzantines, and when Constantinople fell, Russia was the big Orthodox country that still stood. Since they genuinely believed that they had the true, legitimate, non-heretical version of Christianity, were the ones on the front lines of driving back the Turkic hordes, were connected through marriage to the last Byzantine ruling dynasty, and were continually getting stabbed in the back by Catholics to their immediate West, it seemed to them like a pretty clear analogy between them and Eastern Rome. Now, obviously, one can dispute how legitimate this claim to the Byzantine geopolitical/cultural inheritance is, but there's a reason why it's such a big part of the Russian historical identity. Majorian fucked around with this message at 18:55 on Sep 4, 2014 |
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Sep 4, 2014 18:53
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Best Friends posted:Since Putin of all people believes he is in a Clancy novel I'm not sure no Clancychat works. How about a "no gameplanning WWIII, no talking about nuclear war" rule instead. Hopefully reality hasn't shifted enough that those are real options though posting them is probably jinxing it, sorry for the future nuclear war everyone. The New Black posted:That's more what I think of as Clancychat anyway. Not the weird geopolitical situations theorised but the people who come in and start comparing the NATO and Russian militaries and gaming out actual war scenarios. Agree with these. For example I'd say the idea of some sort of low-level Russian proxy incursion in the Baltics is, if not likely, at least within the realm of imagination, which is surely part of why the US and NATO are so interested in reinforcing their support for that region at the moment. It's been discussed in the media and in analytical circles for many months now as well as being intimated by Putin's supporters so I don't see why we can't discuss it -- if it's relevant, anyway.
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Sep 4, 2014 18:53
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:I mentioned the Baltics in the OP. There is plenty of real discussion about it, and NATO is increasing their presence there. Talking about the Baltics is fine for the above quoted reasons. Also, recruitment pages on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/pages/Azov-special-purpose-batallion/1448785592048626 https://www.facebook.com/antimaidaninternacionalbrigadeseuropa  For gore.
HUGE PUBES A PLUS fucked around with this message at 19:00 on Sep 4, 2014 |
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Sep 4, 2014 18:58
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Majorian posted:(there needs to be a crying Byzantine smiley here) http://imgur.com/LZEeNOS In other news Mariupol residents are forming a human chain around the city https://twitter.com/Zhekan_ukrop/status/507539241463971841 More apparent shelling in Mariupol https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f6iMZTDTi5A e:found a working live cam http://webcams.ukrtelecom.ua/cams?id=43 ass struggle fucked around with this message at 19:48 on Sep 4, 2014 |
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Sep 4, 2014 19:22
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That chain image is four days old.
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Sep 4, 2014 19:38
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Well, Russia's outrageous disregard for other nation's sovereignty and their mentality of essentially being the only real moral/legal/legitimate/true authority in the region certainly is very Roman. Putin would have done quite well as an Emperor too.
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Sep 4, 2014 19:39
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Zohar posted:Agree with these. For example I'd say the idea of some sort of low-level Russian proxy incursion in the Baltics is, if not likely, at least within the realm of imagination, which is surely part of why the US and NATO are so interested in reinforcing their support for that region at the moment. Well, that and the joys of coalition politics. A Russian proxy incursion into Poland and the Baltics is extremely unlikely at this point, but it's tough to blame them for not feeling quite as assured by this. So they're screaming for more NATO reinforcements to make sure such an incursion stays extremely unlikely. Genuinely beautiful. God bless you.
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Sep 4, 2014 19:43
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Thank you. It's perfect.
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Sep 4, 2014 19:45
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I had some questions: -Are any commercial jet airliners still operating over Ukraine at all? -Does the Ukrainian Air Force operate against the Russian driven columns, or is their anti-air too good for that?
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Sep 4, 2014 20:00
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Mojo Threepwood posted:-Does the Ukrainian Air Force operate against the Russian driven columns, or is their anti-air too good for that? The separatists already managed to take down way too many Ukrainian planes and helicopters on their own, so I imagine Kiev isn't going to send planes directly against the Russians anytime soon.
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Sep 4, 2014 20:07
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This is a great candid interview with a Russian guy that's getting paid to fight in Ukraine on the side of the separatists. Alas, it's in Russian, and long, but I'll translate the parts that were interesting to me. http://www.novayagazeta.ru/society/65096.html Fighters are recruited in different ways. If your specialty back in the day was spetznaz or intelligence or something equally in demand, FSB would come to your house and try to recruit you in person. Vet organizations are also used to recruit through announcements and sign up lists. Most of the recruiting is done through Cossack organizations tho. Anybody that applies first has an interview with FSB, but it is pretty much a formality. A guy with mental retardation applied, and was accepted. Same with seniors, and even the homeless. Nobody under 25 is taken, on account of their close ties to their family, supposedly. Compensation varies, his battalion pays around 60K rubles per month plus extra for getting wounded/killed, per fighter, more for officers. Everybody gets shipped off to near Rostov, checked by FSB again, they hand in all their documents and identification, then get shipped off to a training camp on a small island near Rostov. There are no guns on the island, so the training is physical fitness, maps, first aid, mines, etc. The training depends on the commander. If he's poo poo, the training is poo poo. Some people leave at this stage after realizing how hosed up the training is and the implications of what that means down the line. After this they are sent to the final training camp. This is where they get the weapons. If the battalion is being assigned as a motorized infantry battalion, fighters are simply given their vehicles. "You three are now tankers, and you three are now artillery." This training period only lasts several days, and after those several days are up its time to ship out to the front lines. Motorized columns were being sent into Ukraine every day. They are not Russian army vehicles. They are vehicles left in Crimean army bases, shipped to the Rostov region and funneled back into Ukraine. The amount of casualties is staggering. Not even in the Chechen wars were this many casualties. Up to 50% of battalions end up dead/wounded or desert. This is a direct result of lack of training for recruited fighters. In the end he gives his reasons for joining up: 1. Kiev must pay for the blood they spilled 2. Some of the best times of his life were his war-time days I sincerely hope this man died in agony. Present fucked around with this message at 20:28 on Sep 4, 2014 |
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Sep 4, 2014 20:18
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^ You have to realize though that most of these men have probably gone through their conscription which is - at least without bribes - compulsory to most of men in Russia, so most of them probably have some relevant skills apart from what they got off their training in these camps. edit: Yeah, I realize that. Just to point out to anyone who thinks that all of these guys are people who have never fired a rifle in their lives. v Dessel fucked around with this message at 20:38 on Sep 4, 2014 |
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Sep 4, 2014 20:28
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Dessel posted:^ I'm just translating. "Те, кто едет, по большей части — люди абсолютно необученные." Those that go, are for the main part completely untrained.
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Sep 4, 2014 20:35
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Regarde Aduck posted:The thing that worries me most about the Russians successfully gaining eastern Ukraine is that it was always first on the list in Russian ultranationalist plans for the new Russian empire. It would mean they are following their brazenly publically stated plans and they likely won't stop there. Future ultranationalist plans include retaking Lithuania, Poland and Turkey. While they are very unlikely to pull this off the timescale for this could be decades. Decades of countries neighboring Russia being harassed and manipulated. What a miserable century this could be. This is assuming America can reverse or at least stall its current decline. If it declines further and Nato collapses then all bets are off. It's worth pointing out that Russian nationalists bragged about how they were going to gently caress Georgia up years before it happened as well. Then they said it about Ukraine and here we are. Look to who they threaten NOW to see where the future war zones will be. Russians aren't bad at secrecy, they just don't seem to give a gently caress. If NATO ever collapses or fails to defend the Baltic states every country around russia is gonna go nuclear as a response, so annexing Turkey or Poland isn't terribly likely.
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Sep 4, 2014 20:56
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If Russia sees these actions as imperative to its long term survival then what's plan B if they fail? If direct military intervention doesn't get them what they want, what else do they have?
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Sep 4, 2014 20:58
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Majorian posted:Well, it's not THAT weird - the Russians had long-standing cultural ties to the Byzantines, and when Constantinople fell, Russia was the big Orthodox country that still stood. Since they genuinely believed that they had the true, legitimate, non-heretical version of Christianity, were the ones on the front lines of driving back the Turkic hordes, were connected through marriage to the last Byzantine ruling dynasty, and were continually getting stabbed in the back by Catholics to their immediate West, it seemed to them like a pretty clear analogy between them and Eastern Rome. The last Roman Emperor was Kayser-i Rum Mehmed VI 
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Sep 4, 2014 21:07
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Funky See Funky Do posted:If Russia sees these actions as imperative to its long term survival then what's plan B if they fail? If direct military intervention doesn't get them what they want, what else do they have? No clancychat, it's in the OP.  Russia doesn't see it as imperative to its survival, it just pines for the good old days of the USSR, that's all.
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Sep 4, 2014 21:08
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Funky See Funky Do posted:If Russia sees these actions as imperative to its long term survival then what's plan B if they fail? If direct military intervention doesn't get them what they want, what else do they have? Plan B would probably be to wait until new elections and keep on hammering Ukraine economically until a new more favorable government is elected. It seems ridiculous, but that is the way it more or less worked out in Georgia, the present government is actually mildly friendly to the Russians at this point. Also yeah Russia's survival isn't at stake anyway, it is imperative to their self-esteem though or at least their self-esteem is being manipulated over the issue.
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Sep 4, 2014 21:10
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:No clancychat, it's in the OP. I don't see that as Clancy chat? I'm very much ignorant on the subject and that's what I took away from the videos in the OP.
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Sep 4, 2014 21:15
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https://twitter.com/tuumapomm/status/507587915883352064 Seems to be plenty of Grads and artillery slung at those positions just to the east of Mariupol, seems to have been going on for half a day now. I wonder if there's any UA forces left to the east, in Shyrokyne or Kominternove. Maybe they have simply bypassed them (while the MLRS themselves dont need to be that close, they presumably need some spotters/UAV on site).
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Sep 4, 2014 21:28
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Martial Law in Ukraine?quote:In case of peace talks failure, Speaker of Parliament Oleksandr Turchynov will initiate the imposition of martial law in the coming days. Claims that over 2000 Russian servicemen have been killed in Ukraine in August alone quote:Elena Vasilieva, Russian social activist from Murmansk and creator of "Cargo-200 from Ukraine to Russia" Facebook group, reported the latest casualties statistics among Russian troops in combat in Ukraine. Parents of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine plan a rally quote:"Currently a group of parents is being organized. I know for sure [there will be people] from Tuva and Ulyanovsk. Together with the parents of soldiers from Pskov they plan to go to the Red Square on September 12, they want to look into Putin's eyes. I don't know what will come of it. But we will follow [the developments]," she said.
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Sep 4, 2014 21:28
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vegetables posted:I take it "no Clancychat" means "don't discuss the possibility of Baltic incursion, despite this now being openly talked about in several mainstream news outlets" rather than "don't discuss Russia's plans to invade Turkey you have made up here and now". That's an interesting rule.
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Sep 4, 2014 21:29
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Berke Negri posted:The last Roman Emperor was Kayser-i Rum Mehmed VI Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees.
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Sep 4, 2014 21:29
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Present posted:This is a great candid interview with a Russian guy that's getting paid to fight in Ukraine on the side of the separatists. Alas, it's in Russian, and long, but I'll translate the parts that were interesting to me. Wiki tells me 5000+ and 7000+ died in the two Chechen wars. That number seems way too high, unless the Ukrainian military's forces have suffered on the same scale.
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Sep 4, 2014 22:06
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Count Roland posted:Wiki tells me 5000+ and 7000+ died in the two Chechen wars. That number seems way too high, unless the Ukrainian military's forces have suffered on the same scale. He probably means rate of casualties among the fighters. Also, casualty does not mean dead it's injured and dead. There were surely more than 5000 and 7000 soldiers injured during the chechen wars.
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Sep 4, 2014 22:07
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Berke Negri posted:The last Roman Emperor was Kayser-i Rum Mehmed VI Well, the guy that took the throne, but his was the creation of the new Ottoman Empire rather than a direct continuation of the old. Nintendo Kid posted:He probably means rate of casualties among the fighters. Also, casualty does not mean dead it's injured and dead. There were surely more than 5000 and 7000 soldiers injured during the chechen wars. Well yeah, and those are military casualties I posted, and yes that is only killed, and probably a rough count at that. But he's saying its as bad as the Chechen wars, and those were very bad indeed for Russia. I'm more inclined to believe his battalion or whatever ate poo poo- I have a time time believing his experience is typical. Unless, again, Kiev's forces have also been eating a huge amount of poo poo.
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Sep 4, 2014 22:12
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Count Roland posted:Well, the guy that took the throne, but his was the creation of the new Ottoman Empire rather than a direct continuation of the old. Wrong Ottoman. #6 was the last one from when the sultanate was dissolved, you are thinking of #2.
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Sep 4, 2014 22:22
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